Jet Airways currently operate 74 aircraft of the B737NG family. They are reportedly a few months behind on the lease payments on several of their aircraft and given their precarious financial situation it appears increasingly likely that at least a part and possibly the entire fleet will be out of action in a few weeks' time. Is the demand for NG aircraft in the secondary market strong enough to absorb these planes? Their ages range from 4 to 14 years.

For the right price.

Only 74? How many 737NGs in operation?

Easy. There must be over 7,000 of the 737ng delivered (6856 as of last July plus further deliveries). So we're discussing about 1.1% of the fleet. Since yearly turnover of a type is healthy at 6% to 8%, you are at most talking about well priced units finding a home within one quarter.

That is what it means to have a liquid Airframe. One should expect 50+ 737NG to change hands monthly. The market won't even have a notable price drop.

The issue is engine condition (plus the ones impounded by an unpaid MRO).

It will take longer to put these airframes through MRO for entry into service inspections than to find buyers. The unplanned MRO work will be the long lead item in my opinion: airframes and engines.

Lightsaber

LDRA wrote:

Only 74? How many 737NGs in operation?

112 total aircraft in fleet currently. A handful are grounded without spares.

Skimming the chart on Wikipedia (yes, I know), there's plenty of 737 Classic operators out there, some of whom are already transitioning to the NG, who could take them all as quickly as they could be checked, refreshed, and repainted. The price for the swap would be the key hangup, but there's a lot of money to be made on the fuel savings, and it would (as noted above) be barely a hiccup in terms of the supply of 737s out there. And all those retired Classics can go to the desert or to P2F conversion as needed.

That's not even touching the airlines that could make use of a fast expansion of their 737 fleets.

Guys are we kidding? As long as the maintenance paperwork is in order, these will all be flying within 0-12 months.
Oh and as long as there are no D checks due....

garf25 wrote:

Guys are we kidding? As long as the maintenance paperwork is in order, these will all be flying within 0-12 months.
Oh and as long as there are no D checks due....

That being said, what are the odds WN will be looking at this frames if they are in proper order? U2 or FR?

indcwby wrote:

garf25 wrote:

Guys are we kidding? As long as the maintenance paperwork is in order, these will all be flying within 0-12 months.
Oh and as long as there are no D checks due....

That being said, what are the odds WN will be looking at this frames if they are in proper order? U2 or FR?

WN might be interested in the MAX -8’s. I’m not sure about the NG’s, it would depend if they have the SFP (Short Field Performance) package installed along with the higher thrust engines.

indcwby wrote:

garf25 wrote:

Guys are we kidding? As long as the maintenance paperwork is in order, these will all be flying within 0-12 months.
Oh and as long as there are no D checks due....

That being said, what are the odds WN will be looking at this frames if they are in proper order? U2 or FR?

Can't see U2 (as an all airbus operator) being interested in a couple of 737s - it must be 10 years since they retired their 73Gs, so crew/maintenance licenses will have lapsed in the meantime. They're having enough trouble integrating the ex-Air Berlin Airbusses, without throwing a totally new Aircraft type in to the mix.

FR *might* be interested in some Frames, but have a pilot shortage of their own as it is...

Hasn't WN taken delivery of a recently retired (or wfu'd) 737-700 from a Chinese airline? Or did I hear it wrong.

indcwby wrote:

That being said, what are the odds WN will be looking at this frames if they are in proper order? U2 or FR?

I agree that WN could possibly acquire Boeing 737NG planes that are repossessed from 9W if the planes are in proper order. In addition, AA, DL, UA, AS, and SY could also acquire used Boeing 737NG planes that are repossessed from 9W.

U2 will probably not purchase any used Boeing 737NG planes since (a) U2 no longer operates any Boeing 737 planes, (b) U2 now operates only Airbus planes, and (c) U2 already has A320neo and A321neo planes on order. On the other hand, FR only operates Boeing 737NG planes and 737 MAX planes, and FR might possibly consider purchasing repossessed planes from 9W.

It might become a problem though if Norwegian ends up going under in the same timespan with their 130+ 737s. Other than that, I think 74 737s doesn’t flood the market at all considering the large size of the 737 fleet.

Easily. They have some quite old ones, these will probably end up being parted out. The better of the old frames may end up as cargo conversions if the price and condition is right. The rest will be scattered about to start-ups and fast growing airlines all over. I don't see any major western airlines jumping on them.
The ATRs will be repossessed and parked somewhere in Europe, among the increasing amounts of ATRs found at some of the storage facilities. Being -500s, I could see many if not most heading for scrap.

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:

And all those retired Classics can go to the desert or to P2F conversion as needed.

The days of 737 Classic conversions are practically over. There is no good feedstock left. Those 737 Classics still out there that haven't been converted are in too poor condition.

Bhoy wrote:

FR *might* be interested in some Frames, but have a pilot shortage of their own as it is...

I would say not a chance. Ryanair just took the final 737NG. From here on it will be 737MAX only.

Blue Air could be a good bet.

garf25 wrote:

Guys are we kidding? As long as the maintenance paperwork is in order, these will all be flying within 0-12 months.
Oh and as long as there are no D checks due....

We're talking India here, not the best place for aircraft maintenance. It is also an ailing airline, and maintenance tends to suffer from that. It isn't far-fetched that some of these may have suffered a bit. I do expect most would eventually return to the air.

VSMUT wrote:

Easily. They have some quite old ones, these will probably end up being parted out. The better of the old frames may end up as cargo conversions if the price and condition is right. The rest will be scattered about to start-ups and fast growing airlines all over. I don't see any major western airlines jumping on them.
The ATRs will be repossessed and parked somewhere in Europe, among the increasing amounts of ATRs found at some of the storage facilities. Being -500s, I could see many if not most heading for scrap.

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:

And all those retired Classics can go to the desert or to P2F conversion as needed.

The days of 737 Classic conversions are practically over. There is no good feedstock left. Those 737 Classics still out there that haven't been converted are in too poor condition.

Bingo! Now, there is high demand for 738s for freighter conversion, and these will provide good feedstock for that program, either directly or indirectly.

Veigar wrote:

Hasn't WN taken delivery of a recently retired (or wfu'd) 737-700 from a Chinese airline? Or did I hear it wrong.

Over the last 2-3 years WN has taken a handful of used -700's from Chinese airlines. There are also 2 ex Air Sahara -700's in the fleet that were acquired around 2007-2008 timeframe (550 and 551).

SY is in the market for at lest 5/6 737-800 a year for the next several years. They would like 50 to 60 737-800. They have 30 737 now, 3 HV for the winter and 3 737-700 going back to leasing company this year.

I wonder if AS would be interested in these to accelerate the retirement of the A320s before they repaint and redo the interiors.

I would say it depends mostly on how well maintained the planes are and if the logbooks have been properly kept up. From what I have heard about other Indian carriers, I would not assume either one is a given.

USAirKid wrote:

I wonder if AS would be interested in these to accelerate the retirement of the A320s before they repaint and redo the interiors.

Now that would be a good idea. It could get their fleet simplified once again.

738s in good order are now being sourced to go through freighter conversions. it's a bit of a punt, but someone like FedEx could take a long, hard look if the feedstock is starting to become available in volume. DHL certainly would.
A 738SF isn't much adrift of what operating a 757 is like, with much lower fuel costs. Ideal for the package shifters

SEPilot wrote:

I would say it depends mostly on how well maintained the planes are and if the logbooks have been properly kept up. From what I have heard about other Indian carriers, I would not assume either one is a given.

That is true. Indian carriers do not have the same maintenance standards as the West. Jet, Indigo and Air India have all shown shady maintenance practices so extra diligence will be required when going through their logbooks.

Both the A320 and the 738 have sold in numbers and are still popular despite the NEO/MAX introduction.

When Indigo falls, their A320's will also have no difficulty in finding suitable homes. Potential lessors would have to look carefully at the maintenance logbooks though. Considering all the problems they have been having with their A320 fleet.

If this was United or British Airways, no one would have a doubt on the sanctity of the maintenance schedules. But with Indian carriers, lessors have learnt to be careful.

BawliBooch wrote:

SEPilot wrote:

I would say it depends mostly on how well maintained the planes are and if the logbooks have been properly kept up. From what I have heard about other Indian carriers, I would not assume either one is a given.

That is true. Indian carriers do not have the same maintenance standards as the West. Jet, Indigo and Air India have all shown shady maintenance practices so extra diligence will be required when going through their logbooks.

Both the A320 and the 738 have sold in numbers and are still popular despite the NEO/MAX introduction.

When Indigo falls, their A320's will also have no difficulty in finding suitable homes. Potential lessors would have to look carefully at the maintenance logbooks though. Considering all the problems they have been having with their A320 fleet.

If this was United or British Airways, no one would have a doubt on the sanctity of the maintenance schedules. But with Indian carriers, lessors have learnt to be careful.

Indigo?
I haven't watched too closely - but I thought they were OK. Not so?


cheers

Nearly all of these frames would be headed to Russia if they were to go on the market. That's where the largest concentration of 737 Classic operators looking to upgrade cheaply is.

Any chance of WestJet taking a few?

brindabella wrote:

Indigo?
I haven't watched too closely - but I thought they were OK. Not so?

No they are perfectly fine. They have been inducting excess A320ceos on short term leases (3-4 years) from multiple carriers for several years now.

Currently 5 NG aircraft are grounded and 3 new MAX aircraft have been stored

USAirKid wrote:

I wonder if AS would be interested in these to accelerate the retirement of the A320s before they repaint and redo the interiors.

They already have been painting the airbus.

https://www.airliners.net/search?keyword ... lay=detail

jplatts wrote:

indcwby wrote:

That being said, what are the odds WN will be looking at this frames if they are in proper order? U2 or FR?

On the other hand, FR only operates Boeing 737NG planes and 737 MAX planes, and FR might possibly consider purchasing repossessed planes from 9W.

Against this is the fact that FR's entire fleet of 738s have the Boeing factory-fitted option of built-in forward airstairs. Jet's don't. Ryanair believe these are essential to maintain their 25 minute turnrounds, and there must be some justification for this as someone as tight-fisted as Michael O'Leary wouldn't pay extra for the option or for the fuel to carry the extra weight round all day unless there was a sound reason.

74 737NGs are easy to place, 74 planes operated by an Indian airline however...

indcwby wrote:

garf25 wrote:

Guys are we kidding? As long as the maintenance paperwork is in order, these will all be flying within 0-12 months.
Oh and as long as there are no D checks due....

That being said, what are the odds WN will be looking at this frames if they are in proper order? U2 or FR?

well? What are the chances UAL wouldn't want them at the right price??

I could see Delta grabbing some, they like low priced used planes, MD-90's and 717's. Smart move buying used.

AIESL has A33X C-Check contract, so 9W can award 737 C-Check contract to them. With almost half of AI NBs on PBTH, I am sure AIESL can accommodate 9W CFM56 overhauls. AIESL may not be able to overhaul in two weeks like ST Engineering, AMECO or HAECO, but the quality of work is better.

Going back the repo topic, I think 9W need just 30-35 737s, rest they can release quickly.
All A332s can go, owned(fortunately) 77Ws should be able to serve Mumbai-AMS/LHR feed.
No one seems to interested in repo their ATR72s, they can serve small stations where 737NG is too big.
EY can pickup India-AUH feed where BASAs permit, rest of the feed can be dropped if there is no capacity.

Hypothetical future fleet
77Ws - 10 (of 10)
737/8/9s - 30 (of 74)
ATR72s - 5 (of 15)
A33X - 0 (of 8)

9W can return(or lessors can repo) 62 frames, still, 9W can generate 70% of the current revenue with lot less operational cost.

BawliBooch wrote:

SEPilot wrote:

I would say it depends mostly on how well maintained the planes are and if the logbooks have been properly kept up. From what I have heard about other Indian carriers, I would not assume either one is a given.

That is true. Indian carriers do not have the same maintenance standards as the West. Jet, Indigo and Air India have all shown shady maintenance practices so extra diligence will be required when going through their logbooks.

Both the A320 and the 738 have sold in numbers and are still popular despite the NEO/MAX introduction.

When Indigo falls, their A320's will also have no difficulty in finding suitable homes. Potential lessors would have to look carefully at the maintenance logbooks though. Considering all the problems they have been having with their A320 fleet.

If this was United or British Airways, no one would have a doubt on the sanctity of the maintenance schedules. But with Indian carriers, lessors have learnt to be careful.

Indigo has no trouble returning leased aircraft, so I suspect their paper is in order. As their books seem to check out, hoping for their failure is unlikely.

All of these Jet NGs will require an extensive c-check before anyone accepts their condition. In particular with MRO defaults.

Unless Jet turns around quick, who will service these aircraft? Due to their poor cash situation, I expect aircraft to be impounded soon. There is no stopping Cape Town convention rights at foreign airports.

Before Indigo falls, many more airlines are done. I calculated at there last quarter losses, they have enough cash for years. This quarter should be better than break even.

Lightsaber

SRQKEF wrote:

It might become a problem though if Norwegian ends up going under in the same timespan with their 130+ 737s. Other than that, I think 74 737s doesn’t flood the market at all considering the large size of the 737 fleet.

200 737s hitting the market would take a while to clear, but they would in under a year.

Before anyone thinks this is A vs. B, good paperwork A320s would clear just as quickly as good paperwork 737s. Bad paperwork, there are airlines that buy them too, but oh do they demand a discount (WN, DL, G4).

Lightsaber

Any source to back up the claim of 5 737NG's and 3 MAX's grounded?

FR24 seems to show all the delivered aircraft flying minus 3 737NG's in for a C-check.

Insider knowledge

BawliBooch wrote:

Any source to back up the claim of 5 737NG's and 3 MAX's grounded?

FR24 seems to show all the delivered aircraft flying minus 3 737NG's in for a C-check.

The 2 new MAXes are at Seattle factory and not delivered to the airline . So " grounded " won't be an appropriate word here. Their deliveries are put on hold by lessors. The five MAX in the fleet are flying.

WN did receive many second hand -700s from China Eastern, China Southern, and one from Air China. WN does have one ex Jet Airways -700, N7846A.

Jet Airways has to be the only airline in the world that pulls out its aircraft for 3 months for a C check

5 737NG's were scheduled to be pulled out of the roster and prepped for delivery to a carrier in the Indian Ocean region. 4 of these are now out of the Jet directory for over 2 months. 1 of these was delivered. Are the other 3 being counted towards the "grounded aircraft"? Pretty ingenious to count these as grounded aircraft. But typical of the propaganda we have seen in the past 3 months.

3 other 737NG aircraft have been sent for checks in the past month (not 3 months).

So out of 5 737NG's and 3 MAX's allegedly "grounded" - 4 NG's (including 1 737-700) which are out of the Jet directory for months and 3 MAX's whose delivery was held at Boeing - are being counted towards "grounded aircraft".

BRILLIANT!

PS: My not so informed sources tell me that 5 737-800 aircraft from the jet fleet are being leased out to a Pakistani carrier through a sub-lessor deal with a company based in Sharjah. Details awaited.

It is possible that jet was looking to place 5 737NG's. With the Madagascar dealing falling through after one aircraft, perhaps Jet is now looking to place the other 4? So it could be 5 total 737-800's rather than 4+5.

The whole objective of this thread, like the other one which has been going on for 4 months, seems to run down the Jet Airways brand using spurious claims based on "informed sources".

Let us look at this objectively - how many claims made in these 2 threads all attributed to "informed sources" have proven correct in the last 4 months? EVEN ONE?

grounded - prohibited or prevented from flying.
store - keep for future use.

The topic of this thread is to explore the fate of aircraft once they are repossessed from a bankrupt airline. The discussion around solvency or otherwise of the airline belongs elsewhere.

unrave wrote:

grounded - prohibited or prevented from flying.
store - keep for future use.

By your definition, the correct word will be "stored" . Had it been a flying MAX which was pulled out of schedule and kept on ground, then it would've been called grounded.
However in this case, the 2/3 MAX weren't flying or in the schedule.

binayak wrote:

By your definition, the correct word will be "stored" . Had it been a flying MAX which was pulled out of schedule and kept on ground, then it would've been called grounded.
However in this case, the 2/3 MAX weren't flying or in the schedule.

Yes, this was my exact comment up this thread:

Currently 5 NG aircraft are grounded and 3 new MAX aircraft have been stored

It would be nice if we could know the exact registrations of the aircraft that are "grounded".

dtw2hyd wrote:

No one seems to interested in repo their ATR72s, they can serve small stations where 737NG is too big.

That's not true. Plans are well underway to repossess the ATRs if they fail. I can have the first one out in less than 24 hours from getting the call if push comes to shove.

There were also plans to sub lease the ATRs to Trujet, but in typical Jet's cluelessness it has now been delayed

Bad paperwork, parted out planes and bad MX practices are the PR terms used by lessors to get the frames released quickly. Just to put additional pressure on lessee and regulators. These are maintained by some of the well-known brand MROs in Asia, how can they have bad paperwork now???

Most King Fisher leased frames found new homes within two of the first repo. Only one (out of 84??) took a year.
The so-called badly maintained, parted out AI 77Ls did AUX-LAX for years without ever going tech, BTW, AIESL did the heavy check before they were delivered to EY. Don't spin another story that EY's MX fixed them.
And as we know now, AI 788s were actually of poor quality, but courtesy to aviation PR, it is all on AI.

Lessors will have no issue repoing or finding new homes for these frames, market conditions dictate how soon they will find new homes.

lightsaber wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

It might become a problem though if Norwegian ends up going under in the same timespan with their 130+ 737s. Other than that, I think 74 737s doesn’t flood the market at all considering the large size of the 737 fleet.

200 737s hitting the market would take a while to clear, but they would in under a year.

Before anyone thinks this is A vs. B, good paperwork A320s would clear just as quickly as good paperwork 737s. Bad paperwork, there are airlines that buy them too, but oh do they demand a discount (WN, DL, G4).

Remember leasors are often not the ultimate owners, having in turn given fixed and floating charges over the aircraft to fund their acquisition. Boeing won't want leasors to fail, because that de-stabilises the market further. EXIM will also be in the mix.

Behind the scenes, an ultimate creditor is likely to be Boeing Capital or a related party.

Boeing concern will to be manage the impact on MAX orders, though as a percentage, it's low. Also, that aircraft are not acquired by competitors of customers with significant MAX exposure, and/or experiencing financial pressures. Hardly the way to create customer goodwill, if a Boeing product, ultimately owned / partly owned by Boeing, is used against a Boeing customer with new Boeing's on order.

Early, involuntary termination of a new aircraft commercial lease is not straightforward. Unwinding the lease can impact the leasor, leasee, banks and funding participants. Leasors prefer to have the current leasee assign the lease to a sub-leasee, rather than the lease be broken. That can put the leasee in a pretty powerful position, though if they exploit too hard, can backfire.