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flyguy84
Topic Author
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United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:19 pm

United shares are sharply up in after-market trading as United beats Wall Street estimates on both fourth quarter revenue and profit.

**In December 2018, ordered an additional four Boeing 777-300ER aircraft and 24 737 MAX aircraft.**

For 2019, UAL expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to again grow year-over-year to between $10.00 to $12.00.2

UAL reported fourth-quarter net income of $462 million, diluted earnings per share of $1.70, pre-tax earnings of $556 million and pre-tax margin of 5.3 percent.
UAL reported fourth-quarter adjusted net income of $657 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.41 and adjusted pre-tax earnings of $814 million.
UAL reported fourth-quarter adjusted pre-tax margin of 7.8 percent,1 expanding margin on an adjusted basis of 0.9 points versus the fourth-quarter of 2017.
UAL recovered 98% percent of the year-over-year increase in fuel prices in 2018.
Consolidated fourth-quarter passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) increased 5 percent year-over-year, at the high end of the company's fourth-quarter 2018 guidance range.
Consolidated fourth-quarter unit cost per available seat mile (CASM) increased 7.0 percent year-over-year.
Consolidated fourth-quarter CASM, excluding special charges, third-party business expenses, fuel and profit sharing, decreased 0.7 percent year-over-year.
Employees earned $334 million in profit sharing for 2018.


Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/united- ... mates.html
https://hub.united.com/united-airlines- ... 98817.html
 
winginit
Posts: 3080
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:34 pm

These are great results. Love him or hate him, Scott is excellent at what he does.
 
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STT757
Posts: 15716
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:16 am

Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?
 
LHUSA
Posts: 973
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 10:15 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:30 am

Very solid results! Well done United. Glad to see their controversial, stock-plummeting strategy is now proving successful. Props to Scott for his vision.
 
kiowa
Posts: 1006
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:26 am

Very nice results United. Well done!
 
wn676
Posts: 1781
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:33 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:29 am

STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


Wouldn’t be surprised to see some 8s added to the order book.
 
kiowa
Posts: 1006
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:54 am

STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?
 
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piedmontf284000
Posts: 697
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:00 pm

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:38 am

kiowa wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?


In December 2018, UA ordered an additional four Boeing 777-300ER aircraft and 24 737 MAX aircraft
 
hkcanadaexpat
Posts: 4086
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:33 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:18 am

kiowa wrote:
We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?

They were reported as Undisclosed Customer in Boeing's December O&D. Purely speculation as to whom they belong to between now and then. Although some United insiders in this forum had indicated for a while that this was happening.
 
Coalways
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:39 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:06 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?


In December 2018, UA ordered an additional four Boeing 777-300ER aircraft and 24 737 MAX aircraft


Will this bring the total 777 count to 95?
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:57 pm

Adding Kirby seems to have been very beneficial to UAL and to AA's detriment. Seems he was more the brains than Doug.
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2418
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:20 pm

Great job UA. Nice figures. Nice to see more 77Ws coming in.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:52 pm

Didn't get to hear the entire thing but UA isn't putting a price tag on the government shutdown just yet. It'll be interesting to see if AA puts an estimate out on their call (or if the government's even open by then)
Last edited by ShinyAndChrome on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1949
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:00 pm

Wow. Good job UA - hell of a recovery since the Dao debacle. OTOH how the heck does Dougie still have a job?
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4970
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:49 pm

9w748capt wrote:
Wow. Good job UA - hell of a recovery since the Dao debacle. OTOH how the heck does Dougie still have a job?


I think you meant to say recovery since the Jeff Smisek debacle.
 
Alias1024
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:51 pm

I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.
 
United1
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Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:27 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.


Reading through the conference call slide deck they are pointing out UA is seeing a strong premium cabin demand from China, Japan and Korea. I think yields in the back are still trash but seems like UA is navigating through all of that fairly well.
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:54 pm

United1 wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.


Reading through the conference call slide deck they are pointing out UA is seeing a strong premium cabin demand from China, Japan and Korea. I think yields in the back are still trash but seems like UA is navigating through all of that fairly well.


Given the recent leaked info we saw regarding UA's Bay Area contracts, it seems like UA probably has plenty of high value traffic to bolster their Pacific network, particularly at SFO. With AA out of ORD-China at least temporarily, UA has probably seen a bump there too. Not too much competition in EWR-Asia (sure, there's indirect competition from JFK, but there's also a distinct Northern Jersey market that UA has mostly to themselves, along with added catchment from Philly)... If any Pacific route is a struggle for UA, I'd guess it would be LAX-PVG.
 
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intotheair
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:26 am

Alias1024 wrote:
I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.


The call was today. You can listen to it on UA's investor site. Seeking Alpha also has a transcript if you register for a free account, and it's pretty good aside from some annoying transcription errors (Dulles always appearing as Dallas, no distinction between RASM and CASM...)

Here's what Andrew Nocella said about Asia Pacific:

Following two years of very strong Atlantic PRASM growth, we saw Q4 PRASM growth of more moderate 1.6%. Passenger load factor was strong, increasing 5.2 points year-over-year. However, that increase was not large enough to offset declining close yields.

Our outlook continues to show coach yield weakness, and as a result, slower PRASM growth with the Atlantic in the coming months. PRASM across the Pacific was up 4.5% year over year in Q4, our third quarter positive for PRASM.

We continue to watch demand levels in business class for China play and have yet to see any reduction in demand for January, resulting from these trade disputes. After negative PRASM growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2018, Latin performance inflected sharply positive, increasing 3.8% in the fourth quarter. We are optimistic about strong PRASM from the Latin region, even with continued weakness in Brazil and Argentina.

Looking ahead, we anticipate first quarter consolidated system PRASM to be flat to up 3% year-over-year. The shift of Easter holiday to mid-April is expected to be an 80 basis point headwind for Q1, with an equal tailwind for Q2. As we look at the revenue environment, the primary change we observed is pricing across the Atlantic.


There wasn't a whole lot else in the conference call that was particularly surprising, though these few nuggets caught my eye:

Retirements of 757s and A320s to begin
60 planes to get Polaris in 2019
Phase 2 of transferring aircraft from EWR to IAD happening now through 2019
Kirby: expect 787-10s to replace older, less efficient aircraft (I presume he’s talking about 767s?)
None of them committed to reducing the net count of RJs overall, but they promised to continue getting the 'right balance' of mainline and RJs and making sure mainline markets "more often" see mainline jets.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3646
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:33 am

intotheair wrote:
Kirby: expect 787-10s to replace older, less efficient aircraft (I presume he’s talking about 767s?)


Could also be referring to some or all of the domestic 777-200s. The 787-10 could be a good replacement for that aircraft from a capacity and range perspective.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:12 am

FSDan wrote:
intotheair wrote:
Kirby: expect 787-10s to replace older, less efficient aircraft (I presume he’s talking about 767s?)


Could also be referring to some or all of the domestic 777-200s. The 787-10 could be a good replacement for that aircraft from a capacity and range perspective.


Has to be the 767’s not receiving Polaris.

I wonder if there is a hanger queen or two A320 or a couple coming up for an intense C check. All have quite some cycles and hours left after the latest round of life extensions and seem to be in good shape these days.

For me, it’s pretty clear the high-J Polaris 767’s will pick up some EWR-LAX/SFO flying as the p.s. 757’s go for scraping. I suspect Delta will be fairly aggressive with bidding for those engines and associated parts

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