trav777
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:41 am

smartplane wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
I feel that DL will make a move on used frames, for VS and/or JFK-LHR.
They are all out for blood, you should look at the fares that they're proposing recently on JFK-LHR...

Nonsense. The blood DL would be spilling would be their own. Provide some evidence, or just stop with such stuff.

Can't see DL purchasing a new or used A380, but...............

As Airbus (and related parties) is potentially the ultimate owner of many used A380's, it's possible loyal Airbus customers will be offered a HiFly style lease, providing they don't impact / alienate current and prospective A380 customers, nor impact adversely other Airbus-family sales to the recipients.


how would that help them make money on operations, tho?
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:05 am

trav777 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Nonsense. The blood DL would be spilling would be their own. Provide some evidence, or just stop with such stuff.

Can't see DL purchasing a new or used A380, but...............

As Airbus (and related parties) is potentially the ultimate owner of many used A380's, it's possible loyal Airbus customers will be offered a HiFly style lease, providing they don't impact / alienate current and prospective A380 customers, nor impact adversely other Airbus-family sales to the recipients.


how would that help them make money on operations, tho?


Lower landing fees..

While not close to the number of twins, there are still a lot of 747s and A380s making their owners money. It's not all doom and gloom for quads. They still work very well on certain routes. Fuel prices will drop again too.

It will be a sad day for me personally when there are no more 747s or A380s. I love the spacious cabin they provide.
Hate the A380 all you want, but it's a fantastic plane to fly on.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:16 am

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
It would be interesting to see if Airbus can do to the A380 what it did to the A340.
4 hair dryers replaced by 2 real engines, and then again by 2 newer engines. The A340 lives on in the A330neo.

An A380 configured as twin with large nextgen engines that dwarf the GE9X and just slightly less range, burning 25% less fuel.
Everybody will be standing in line to buy some.

No they will not.

Skipping over the technical arguments, the airline industry can find a VLA's worth of passengers that want to go to the same place at the same time but they can't do it on enough routes with enough profit on enough days of the week to enable A380 to thrive.

The fundamental issue isn't the efficiency of the A380 per se (but it of course could use improvement) but it is the structure of demand in the market.

For instance EK said it had no interest in the Plus interior optimizations on their A380s whereas pretty much every other airline is finding they can make more money by cramming in more seats into their aircraft. That tells you that EK's main issue is the number of passengers willing to pay market value for such seats.

If you try to improve the efficiency of the A380 you have to find a way to pay for such improvements. The A380 has removed many of the unknowns about the VLA market. We now know that outfits like MH and TG definitely should not have ordered A380s, AF, QF and LH should not have ordered as many as they did because they didn't take all of their orders etc. The market base for A380 is proven and it is far smaller than the early rosy predictions. The original infrastructure was sized for 48/year, here we are heading towards 6/year. The market base to justify a major spend to improve the A380 just isn't there.

And the technical side makes your idea a non-starter. There is no engine that can provide enough thrust to a two-engined A380, and unlike A330/A340 the design does not allow for a two-engined A380. It'd in essence need to be a clean sheet and there's no market for that right now.

Waterbomber wrote:
I feel that DL will make a move on used frames, for VS and/or JFK-LHR.
They are all out for blood, you should look at the fares that they're proposing recently on JFK-LHR...

Nonsense. The blood DL would be spilling would be their own. Provide some evidence, or just stop with such stuff.


First of all, the DL thing is an opinion, and I will state my opinion as I see fit. Your orders to stop will be happily ignored and replied upon with a suggestion to stop reading.

Second of all, aviation has been through many era's.
Everybody around here claims that the B777 is the holy grail of profit-making, and yet when oil was at record highs, very few airlines with dozens of B777 could report a profit at all.
Even today, with oil prices as low as they are, airlines like AF are struggling to make ends meet despite having the B777 as their mainstay aircraft.
With oil prices as low as they are today, many operators that have the B787 as mainstay long haul aircraft are also posting negative earnings. DY and Scoot come to mind, but there will be plenty others.

A fleet can make a difference, but look at DL's fleet. They don't have many of the newest and best, which are only starting to come online, and yet they are making huge profits.
What does that tell you?
Aircraft are assets that are used for the purpose of fulfilling a strategy, not the other way around.
A strategy built around what aircraft has the lowest CASM is common on airliners.net. In real life though, you need to have a sound strategy and then you need the aircraft to make that strategy work.
If you can't find a winning combination, you move on and look for another strategy.

Open up Google Flights and carry out a random fare search, LHR-JFK return.
Can you see the fare differences on DL for the coming 6 months? DL is selling no-frills fares for about 380 USD while BA's fares are around 1800 USD .
At those fares, DY doesn't stand a chance to survive in that market. It's clear that DL is out for market share and they're going to get it.
The A380 is the perfect aircraft to grab market share on this heavily slot-restricted route, and as it happens, used A380's are going to be available and oil prices are low.
They won't take 2 dozens, but half a dozen would make complete sense.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:21 am

This post is not an attempt to pitch the A380 vs 747 at all, but looking at it from a different perspective, the A380 really hasn't done terribly bad when you consider everything the A380 came in against and has not had a single revision/update.

Not including the Freighter variants,

747-100 = 167 sold
747-100B = 9 sold
747-100SR = 7 sold
747-100BSR = 20 sold
747-100BSR SUD = 2 sold
747SP = 45
747-200B = 225
747-200C = 13
747-200M = 78
747-300 = 56
747-300M = 21
747-300SR = 4
747-400 = 440
747-400D = 21
747-400ER = 6
747-400M = 63
747-8i = 47

Boeing built the 747s success on 17 variants, adapting it to market conditions and without any competition.
Most of it also before the A330 and 777 came to market.

The A380 faced the repercussions of 9/11, the global recession, record high fuel prices, wing ribs cracking, 747, and the efficiency of the A330, 777, and soon after the 787. All of which hurt the 747 too.
And the biggest flaw, that it was a shrink. I think if the the -800 was the base model, it would have done a fair amount better.


Again. I hope the 747 and A380 remain in service for a long time yet. Theyre my only choice when I fly transcon. I would like to try an A350 though.
Last edited by Slug71 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:22 am

I think the comfort factor is over played for the 380. While it is very comfortable , in business class it’s comfort Delta is not great.

I think if we are all honest there is little difference between a 777 and 380 in business.

Now, for economy, I suppose the delta may be greater but coach travelers prioritize fares which dampens the 380’s advantage.

Now let’s think about the Concorde which was highly prized by business travelers. Sure the seats were nothing compared to today’s lie flat seats but the time savings made it the go to ac for frequent business travelers. And the feeling on takeoff was alone worth the price of admission. Everything else is forgettable vs the Concord.

I look forward to the next supersonic ac. I read the recent interview w The Boeing CEO and was excited to hear him so optimistic about hypersonic passenger ac in 15-20 years. Imagine how this would advance aviation!
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:53 am

Planeflyer wrote:
I think the comfort factor is over played for the 380. While it is very comfortable , in business class it’s comfort Delta is not great.

I think if we are all honest there is little difference between a 777 and 380 in business.

Now, for economy, I suppose the delta may be greater but coach travelers prioritize fares which dampens the 380’s advantage.

Now let’s think about the Concorde which was highly prized by business travelers. Sure the seats were nothing compared to today’s lie flat seats but the time savings made it the go to ac for frequent business travelers. And the feeling on takeoff was alone worth the price of admission. Everything else is forgettable vs the Concord.

I look forward to the next supersonic ac. I read the recent interview w The Boeing CEO and was excited to hear him so optimistic about hypersonic passenger ac in 15-20 years. Imagine how this would advance aviation!


I cant speak for others, but the size of the cabin (not just the seats) adds a level of comfort too.
I can only afford to fly in economy too. The seats here are better than economy on about anything else. It probably doesn't make much difference in business or first.
The quietness is a comfort factor too. Though the 787 is pretty good here too. And I'm sure the A350 also.
But it's the whole package for me. Same reason I like flying on a 747. I love the bigger cabin. It's not much on paper, but it makes a difference.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:03 am

Jouhou wrote:
Also I don't get why BA shows no intention to order more. It's most useful to them and they just aren't taking it.

Because while LHR is indeed horribly constrained, BA is the airline least affected: they've got a large portfolio of slots, and still have the ability to (1) upgauge smaller aircraft, and (2) move shorthaul flights to other LON gateways in favor of operating a longhaul flight from that LHR slot.

They've long since calculated that their ability to do so, outweighs ordering more A380s at this particular point in time.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:50 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
I think the comfort factor is over played for the 380. While it is very comfortable , in business class it’s comfort Delta is not great.

I think if we are all honest there is little difference between a 777 and 380 in business.

Now, for economy, I suppose the delta may be greater but coach travelers prioritize fares which dampens the 380’s advantage.

Now let’s think about the Concorde which was highly prized by business travelers. Sure the seats were nothing compared to today’s lie flat seats but the time savings made it the go to ac for frequent business travelers. And the feeling on takeoff was alone worth the price of admission. Everything else is forgettable vs the Concord.

I look forward to the next supersonic ac. I read the recent interview w The Boeing CEO and was excited to hear him so optimistic about hypersonic passenger ac in 15-20 years. Imagine how this would advance aviation!


I cant speak for others, but the size of the cabin (not just the seats) adds a level of comfort too.
I can only afford to fly in economy too. The seats here are better than economy on about anything else. It probably doesn't make much difference in business or first.
The quietness is a comfort factor too. Though the 787 is pretty good here too. And I'm sure the A350 also.
But it's the whole package for me. Same reason I like flying on a 747. I love the bigger cabin. It's not much on paper, but it makes a difference.



Agree, all good points especially for economy seating where the price imperative dampens the 380’s comfort advantage .

These all also improve business class as well but not if it means adding a stop.

I’m now 62 and fly 6 x a year to Europe and Asia. In my younger days I did 14-16 trips and would again again if I could do transpacific in 3-4 hours.

Get me there faster and I’ll fly more.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:00 pm

trav777 wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
trav777 wrote:
lol a NEO...are we STILL talking about dumping billions into a program that ALREADY cost billions and failed?


The A380 NEO is probably doomed, but this isn't a proper way to evaluate the economics of a project. You are falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy. The billions that Airbus has already spent on the A380 are irrelevant to evaluating an A380 NEO. The only thing that matters when evaluating an A380 NEO is whether the incremental investment yields a positive net present value.


Wrong.

Sunk cost fallacy is those who continue to spend on a project because they've already gone in so deep they don't want to see their sunk costs go to naught. Abandoning a FAILED project because it is a failure regardless of how much you've dumped into it is the opposite of sunk cost fallacy. It's called being rational.

Anybody rational should see the a 380Neo would be the equivalent of New New Coke. A horrible business decision followed by an even worse one.


I agree that an A380neo is a bad idea. Perhaps you will observe it was the first thing I wrote in my reply when I called it “probably doomed.”

The sunk cost fallacy works both ways. In this case, you have emotionally soured on the project and refuse to rationally evaluate the alternatives. Shutdown is not the only choice facing the program. When you say “are we STILL talking about dumping billions into a program that ALREADY cost billions and failed” you are allowing an outcome that happened in the past and cannot be changed to emotionally influence your future decisions.

If you want to be rational, then only thing that matters is the NPV of your next decision. In the case of the A380neo, this means ignoring the cost sunk on the A380 first generation. Again, I am convinced such an analysis would show that an A380neo is either NPV negative or less appealing than other projects Airbus could pursue. But that is how you should rationally approach the situation.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:38 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
Everybody around here claims that the B777 is the holy grail of profit-making, and yet when oil was at record highs, very few airlines with dozens of B777 could report a profit at all.
Even today, with oil prices as low as they are, airlines like AF are struggling to make ends meet despite having the B777 as their mainstay aircraft.
With oil prices as low as they are today, many operators that have the B787 as mainstay long haul aircraft are also posting negative earnings. DY and Scoot come to mind, but there will be plenty others.

A fleet can make a difference, but look at DL's fleet. They don't have many of the newest and best, which are only starting to come online, and yet they are making huge profits.
What does that tell you?
Aircraft are assets that are used for the purpose of fulfilling a strategy, not the other way around.
A strategy built around what aircraft has the lowest CASM is common on airliners.net. In real life though, you need to have a sound strategy and then you need the aircraft to make that strategy work.
If you can't find a winning combination, you move on and look for another strategy.

Open up Google Flights and carry out a random fare search, LHR-JFK return.
Can you see the fare differences on DL for the coming 6 months? DL is selling no-frills fares for about 380 USD while BA's fares are around 1800 USD .
At those fares, DY doesn't stand a chance to survive in that market. It's clear that DL is out for market share and they're going to get it.
The A380 is the perfect aircraft to grab market share on this heavily slot-restricted route, and as it happens, used A380's are going to be available and oil prices are low.
They won't take 2 dozens, but half a dozen would make complete sense.

Nobody around here claims that the B777 is the holy grail of profit-making and can turn a high priced oil environment from unprofitable to profitable.

You may note however that AF's next move towards improving the bottom line is deciding to not renew the leases of half its A380 fleet.

Bottom line is you can't provide any evidence that DL flying used A380s will happen.

The reason should be obvious: it makes no sense for this to happen.

DL is perfectly happy to see BA charge cartel TATL prices.

In fact their goal is to preserve cartel pricing.

DL's worry is not BA, it's the new TATL entrants (DY, WW, FL) and potential entrants (B6).

DL is putting pressure on these airlines by lowering prices.

They don't need to flood the market with A380s worth of seats to do so.

My quick check shows most DL LON-NYC flights are operated by A330s.

If they wanted to flood the market why go two sizes bigger and operate A380s when you can get cheap 777s off lease and you already operate the type?

Why spin up a small number of whales and deal with the union squabbles, the training and maintenance costs, all just to lose money on a bigger scale?

Why are you sure they even need aircraft bigger than A330 to hold prices low?
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cledaybuck
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
Everybody around here claims that the B777 is the holy grail of profit-making, and yet when oil was at record highs, very few airlines with dozens of B777 could report a profit at all.
Even today, with oil prices as low as they are, airlines like AF are struggling to make ends meet despite having the B777 as their mainstay aircraft.
With oil prices as low as they are today, many operators that have the B787 as mainstay long haul aircraft are also posting negative earnings. DY and Scoot come to mind, but there will be plenty others.

A fleet can make a difference, but look at DL's fleet. They don't have many of the newest and best, which are only starting to come online, and yet they are making huge profits.
What does that tell you?
Aircraft are assets that are used for the purpose of fulfilling a strategy, not the other way around.
A strategy built around what aircraft has the lowest CASM is common on airliners.net. In real life though, you need to have a sound strategy and then you need the aircraft to make that strategy work.
If you can't find a winning combination, you move on and look for another strategy.

Open up Google Flights and carry out a random fare search, LHR-JFK return.
Can you see the fare differences on DL for the coming 6 months? DL is selling no-frills fares for about 380 USD while BA's fares are around 1800 USD .
At those fares, DY doesn't stand a chance to survive in that market. It's clear that DL is out for market share and they're going to get it.
The A380 is the perfect aircraft to grab market share on this heavily slot-restricted route, and as it happens, used A380's are going to be available and oil prices are low.
They won't take 2 dozens, but half a dozen would make complete sense.

Nobody around here claims that the B777 is the holy grail of profit-making and can turn a high priced oil environment from unprofitable to profitable.

You may note however that AF's next move towards improving the bottom line is deciding to not renew the leases of half its A380 fleet.

Bottom line is you can't provide any evidence that DL flying used A380s will happen.

The reason should be obvious: it makes no sense for this to happen.

DL is perfectly happy to see BA charge cartel TATL prices.

In fact their goal is to preserve cartel pricing.

DL's worry is not BA, it's the new TATL entrants (DY, WW, FL) and potential entrants (B6).

DL is putting pressure on these airlines by lowering prices.

They don't need to flood the market with A380s worth of seats to do so.

My quick check shows most DL LON-NYC flights are operated by A330s.

If they wanted to flood the market why go two sizes bigger and operate A380s when you can get cheap 777s off lease and you already operate the type?

Why spin up a small number of whales and deal with the union squabbles, the training and maintenance costs, all just to lose money on a bigger scale?

Why are you sure they even need aircraft bigger than A330 to hold prices low?
To be fair, DL’s A333’s actually seat 2 more than their 777’s. The A350 is actually their highest capacity plane, but even then, it is only 13 more seats than the A333.
 
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SQ789
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:56 pm

There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.
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AirbusA6
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:05 pm

I can't see Airbus wanting to kill the A380 programme, but see no desire to spend any money on the programme at the moment. Maybe in 10 years time here will be greater market demand for a NG VLAs...
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Kindanew
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:44 pm

Personally I think they will kill it after all the remaining orders are filled. Hopefully they will improve their product strategy teams and come up with something the market actually needs
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:48 pm

Kindanew wrote:
Personally I think they will kill it after all the remaining orders are filled. Hopefully they will improve their product strategy teams and come up with something the [broader] market actually needs


Fixed that for you. Obviously, EK needed the A380.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:35 pm

SQ789 wrote:
There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.


Nothing will probably happen until project sunrise happens is decided on. Things change. Especially in this Industry. 5 years from now they may decide the need them afterall. Right now it isn't costing them anything to keep them on the books.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:04 pm

[*]
BlueSky1976 wrote:
The writing's on the wall for that beast. And it's a good thing.

Boeing 747 is next, thankfully - whether you like it, or not.


At least the 747 can survive as a freighter until something else is developer with nose cargo loading and can use most of the same taxiways and runways. That was also just an update on an old design. The A380 was a huge mistake and the he end of production should be announced once all existing orders are fulfilled.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:41 am

Slug71 wrote:
This post is not an attempt to pitch the A380 vs 747 at all, but looking at it from a different perspective, the A380 really hasn't done terribly bad when you consider everything the A380 came in against and has not had a single revision/update.

Not including the Freighter variants,

747-100 = 167 sold
747-100B = 9 sold
747-100SR = 7 sold
747-100BSR = 20 sold
747-100BSR SUD = 2 sold
747SP = 45
747-200B = 225
747-200C = 13
747-200M = 78
747-300 = 56
747-300M = 21
747-300SR = 4
747-400 = 440
747-400D = 21
747-400ER = 6
747-400M = 63
747-8i = 47

Boeing built the 747s success on 17 variants, adapting it to market conditions and without any competition.
Most of it also before the A330 and 777 came to market.

The A380 faced the repercussions of 9/11, the global recession, record high fuel prices, wing ribs cracking, 747, and the efficiency of the A330, 777, and soon after the 787. All of which hurt the 747 too.
And the biggest flaw, that it was a shrink. I think if the the -800 was the base model, it would have done a fair amount better.


Again. I hope the 747 and A380 remain in service for a long time yet. Theyre my only choice when I fly transcon. I would like to try an A350 though.


The 380 has to be getting cheap enough to temp someone... I hope

Regards the list and lack of freighters the 380 had a planned freighter version but it was more poorly thought out than passenger version.

Both the -8 and 380 rank really high on the worst product development decisions ever made.
 
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flee
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:08 am

SQ789 wrote:
There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.

QF could have done the same thing as SQ - retire its older frames and take delivery of some or all of the remaining orders. However, it chose to refurbish and update the cabins of the old frames that they already have. Perhaps QF's frames are owned and they don't have the luxury of returning them to the lessor. Perhaps they have worked out a new strategy for the A380 fleet that allows them to operate at a profit. Lets see what happens...
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:19 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
This post is not an attempt to pitch the A380 vs 747 at all, but looking at it from a different perspective, the A380 really hasn't done terribly bad when you consider everything the A380 came in against and has not had a single revision/update.

Not including the Freighter variants,

747-100 = 167 sold
747-100B = 9 sold
747-100SR = 7 sold
747-100BSR = 20 sold
747-100BSR SUD = 2 sold
747SP = 45
747-200B = 225
747-200C = 13
747-200M = 78
747-300 = 56
747-300M = 21
747-300SR = 4
747-400 = 440
747-400D = 21
747-400ER = 6
747-400M = 63
747-8i = 47

Boeing built the 747s success on 17 variants, adapting it to market conditions and without any competition.
Most of it also before the A330 and 777 came to market.

The A380 faced the repercussions of 9/11, the global recession, record high fuel prices, wing ribs cracking, 747, and the efficiency of the A330, 777, and soon after the 787. All of which hurt the 747 too.
And the biggest flaw, that it was a shrink. I think if the the -800 was the base model, it would have done a fair amount better.


Again. I hope the 747 and A380 remain in service for a long time yet. Theyre my only choice when I fly transcon. I would like to try an A350 though.


The 380 has to be getting cheap enough to temp someone... I hope

Regards the list and lack of freighters the 380 had a planned freighter version but it was more poorly thought out than passenger version.

Both the -8 and 380 rank really high on the worst product development decisions ever made.


That's crossed my mind, but I would think the low production numbers/rate will limit cost reduction to some extent. If I remember correctly, that is something Airbus was wanting to address. But to what degree it can be done, who knows.
The engines are probably a big drawback too. The GP7200 was supposed to end production last year, and with EK choosing RR for their last order, its probably done.
Then RR fell short on their last PiP (which hurt all the RR customers, not just EK) and have said they wont do anymore. Even if EK can convince them to do another, it'll probably come with heavy penalty clauses in the event it falls short again.
Having a sole engine option which is pretty much end of life cant be very attractive either. Especially for the used market.
When the Ultrafan comes out, the T900 will be 2 generations behind.
They should have put the T7000 on there when they chose it for the A330N. At least then the engines would only be a generation behind the Ultrafan, but have a huge parts market and maintenance commonality.
The Plus should have had the T7000 at least. Instead of the floor plan that was offered and nobody wanted.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:14 am

When I said cheap I meant on the second hand market. On new frames I suspect there are very few options to cut costs.

They are in a tough spot.

Huge disruption opportunities are on the horizon. If AB wants to be the disruptor they need to invest in RD and not waste money keeping the 380 line alive.
 
smartplane
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:19 am

SQ789 wrote:
There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.

QF's A380's remain on Airbus orders list for a reason.

Neither Airbus or Boeing are contract soft anymore, especially if compensation and volume credits and/or dollars changed hands. Interesting to see what happens if A380 production ceases. Current OEM order templates include a put option if the model is to be deleted (unless waived by mutual agreement), or requirement to retrospectively repay volume discounts if the order isn't completed.
 
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neutrino
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:11 am

WPvsMW wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Personally I think they will kill it after all the remaining orders are filled. Hopefully they will improve their product strategy teams and come up with something the [broader] market actually needs


Fixed that for you. Obviously, EK need the A380.

Fixed that for you. You're welcome. ;)
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:30 am

Planeflyer wrote:
When I said cheap I meant on the second hand market. On new frames I suspect there are very few options to cut costs.

They are in a tough spot.

Huge disruption opportunities are on the horizon. If AB wants to be the disruptor they need to invest in RD and not waste money keeping the 380 line alive.


They probably will come up cheap on the second hand market, but they'll still be plagued by the engine drawbacks. Especially the GP7200 frames which account for nearly half of the frames.

They're definitely in a tough spot.
 
jimatkins
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:32 am

Agree with smartplane, there are probably accounting landmines that will blow the financials all to hell if the 380 gets cancelled. On the other hand, the development costs are so huge, they will never be recovered. Airbus might as well bite the bullet and end the program. Take all your bad medicine in one gulp, then move on with projects that actually make money. When this finally winds up, it will be a Harvard Business School case for the ages. I know, Boeing has played fast and loose with their costing on the 787 program, but at least they have a chance to make money somewhere down the road on that one.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:53 am

neutrino wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Personally I think they will kill it after all the remaining orders are filled. Hopefully they will improve their product strategy teams and come up with something the [broader] market actually needs


Fixed that for you. Obviously, EK need the A380.

Fixed that for you. You're welcome. ;)


I have a new insight.

< Obviously, EK may or may not need the A380, depending on the engines. >

Could the engine issue be a surrogate hedge about how real EK's need is?
 
moyangmm
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:58 am

neutrino wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Personally I think they will kill it after all the remaining orders are filled. Hopefully they will improve their product strategy teams and come up with something the [broader] market actually needs


Fixed that for you. Obviously, EK need the A380.

Fixed that for you. You're welcome. ;)


Shouldn't it be "needs"?
 
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neutrino
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:18 am

moyangmm wrote:
neutrino wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:

Fixed that for you. Obviously, EK need the A380.

Fixed that for you. You're welcome. ;)


Shouldn't it be "needs"?

The airline entity can be considered as both a singular and a plural, so either way works. :smile:
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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neutrino
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:22 am

WPvsMW wrote:
neutrino wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:

Fixed that for you. Obviously, EK need the A380.

Fixed that for you. You're welcome. ;)


I have a new insight.

< Obviously, EK may or may not need the A380, depending on the engines. >

Could the engine issue be a surrogate hedge about how real EK's need is?

EK need the whale and still do, but at this juncture with the engine impasse, they can elect to do without further new birds besides those on unconditional order..
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
2175301
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:49 am

Revelation wrote:
The airframe order was booked.

The engine order has not been booked.

The airframe order is contingent on the engine order.

See the A380 engines thread for more details.


A question: Do we know for sure that the airframe order is contingent on the engine order.

Is it possible that EK figures that there will be plenty of used good condition engines available that they don't have to order new engines for their new airframes?

That would raise many interesting possibilities...

Have a great day,
 
travelhound
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:13 am

This post is from the Australian Aviation thread.

Interesting piece regarding AA/QF JV, looking at this there are multiple routes being looked at, probably seasonal



https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1083871007335768064

....and this is why the A380 had been such a hard machine to make money with.

The tweet states AA has a 20% margin difference between flying to Europe in the Winter and Summer months.

The problem for the A380 is you have committed the aircraft (product) to a route you have to fly year round. If some routes having considerable variances in demand between the different seasons a route can be uneconomic for a good proportion of the year.

In contrast, hypothetically, flying two 787's (14 flights weekly) instead of one A380 (7 flights weekly) in the summer months means you can adjust your winter flying to 11-12 weekly flights just by shifting excess capacity to other markets.

As such I can see two bonuses with using smaller aircraft. You can 1) more easily adjust seat capacity to match underlying demand whilst at the same time 2) shift excess aircraft capacity to service other profitable markets.

No CASM numbers, arguments about four or two engines, or the merits of newer engine and aircraft technology required.

The win for using smaller aircraft revolves around flexibility. As the AA tweet states, if their isn't enough demand for a 787 on long haul routes they will simply use it on their domestic network.

As such we are talking about a win-win for using smaller aircraft.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:52 am

Regarding the Air France A380s I would not blame the aircraft in that case. The A380 needs connecting passengers and for this to work you need a hub that people like to use for the connection. CDG is not such a hub. You can even see it at LH, they are now flying more and more A380s from MUC, as passengers prefer to connect in MUC over connecting in FRA.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:29 pm

travelhound wrote:
This post is from the Australian Aviation thread.

Interesting piece regarding AA/QF JV, looking at this there are multiple routes being looked at, probably seasonal



https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1083871007335768064

....and this is why the A380 had been such a hard machine to make money with.

The tweet states AA has a 20% margin difference between flying to Europe in the Winter and Summer months.

The problem for the A380 is you have committed the aircraft (product) to a route you have to fly year round. If some routes having considerable variances in demand between the different seasons a route can be uneconomic for a good proportion of the year.

In contrast, hypothetically, flying two 787's (14 flights weekly) instead of one A380 (7 flights weekly) in the summer months means you can adjust your winter flying to 11-12 weekly flights just by shifting excess capacity to other markets.

As such I can see two bonuses with using smaller aircraft. You can 1) more easily adjust seat capacity to match underlying demand whilst at the same time 2) shift excess aircraft capacity to service other profitable markets.

No CASM numbers, arguments about four or two engines, or the merits of newer engine and aircraft technology required.

The win for using smaller aircraft revolves around flexibility. As the AA tweet states, if their isn't enough demand for a 787 on long haul routes they will simply use it on their domestic network.

As such we are talking about a win-win for using smaller aircraft.


But you dont need to commit a A380 to any route year round.
A lot of routes can be supported by an A380 year round. Others can be rotated with a 777, 787, or A350 while the A380 flys to other seasonal destinations.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1145
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:43 pm

The best way to tell the economics of a plane is whether the airlines are ordering it, as they are the ones that pay for it. In the last 4 years it has a net -4 orders. Other than SIA doing a top off of 5 in 2012 (so it can return the leased first 5) and EK ordering half of all planes on order it does not look good. It seems no blue chip is ordering, others may pick up used once the available 380s are not early production.

Airlines getting 10+ year old frames can pick the 380 or it can pick 330's, 340's, or 777's that have 10x the number of birds so part availability, pilots, mechanics, gates, et al make a more economic choice. Right now there is only Dr Peters expensive parts yard to get used parts from.

Long ago the decision to design for a -9 being larger with the same range, rather than a simple stretch may have added that critical few % increase in costs. But Boeing also did the 748 which never reached expectations either. Both mfg missed the withering of the VLA.
 
Noshow
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:50 pm

EK has reordered 20. That is enough to keep the line going. Same low rate as 747-8 but alive.
 
travelhound
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:49 pm

Slug71 wrote:
travelhound wrote:
This post is from the Australian Aviation thread.

Interesting piece regarding AA/QF JV, looking at this there are multiple routes being looked at, probably seasonal



https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1083871007335768064

....and this is why the A380 had been such a hard machine to make money with.

The tweet states AA has a 20% margin difference between flying to Europe in the Winter and Summer months.

The problem for the A380 is you have committed the aircraft (product) to a route you have to fly year round. If some routes having considerable variances in demand between the different seasons a route can be uneconomic for a good proportion of the year.

In contrast, hypothetically, flying two 787's (14 flights weekly) instead of one A380 (7 flights weekly) in the summer months means you can adjust your winter flying to 11-12 weekly flights just by shifting excess capacity to other markets.

As such I can see two bonuses with using smaller aircraft. You can 1) more easily adjust seat capacity to match underlying demand whilst at the same time 2) shift excess aircraft capacity to service other profitable markets.

No CASM numbers, arguments about four or two engines, or the merits of newer engine and aircraft technology required.

The win for using smaller aircraft revolves around flexibility. As the AA tweet states, if their isn't enough demand for a 787 on long haul routes they will simply use it on their domestic network.

As such we are talking about a win-win for using smaller aircraft.


But you dont need to commit a A380 to any route year round.
A lot of routes can be supported by an A380 year round. Others can be rotated with a 777, 787, or A350 while the A380 flys to other seasonal destinations.


When you have to crew the plane, allow for parts and servicing and organise landing slots / terminal space with an airport, swapping aircraft types can be a very complex task.

From a product perspective you want to present a consistent product to the flying customer. For instance swapping out a 4-class A380 with a two class 787 may suit the rote the airline is serving.
 
smartplane
Posts: 584
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:29 pm

2175301 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The airframe order was booked.

The engine order has not been booked.

The airframe order is contingent on the engine order.

See the A380 engines thread for more details.


A question: Do we know for sure that the airframe order is contingent on the engine order.

Is it possible that EK figures that there will be plenty of used good condition engines available that they don't have to order new engines for their new airframes?

That would raise many interesting possibilities...

Good lateral thinking, but......
EK might be happy with such an arrangement, but what about leasor's and those funding? A new air frame with 12 year old plus engines.

EK (and SQ too) write fixed price engine maintenance contracts for the life of the lease, which the leasor may/may not have extended at the same time for beyond the lease period (one of the reasons SQ retired A380 engines live on).

Writing a fixed price maintenance contract for Year 12 to Year 24 would probably cost twice as much as Y0 to Y12, with no performance erosion guarantees, so better off to buy new.

At some point, RR must be hoping the A380 goes away, unless EK partly / fully underwrites a re-engine.
 
smartplane
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:33 pm

travelhound wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
But you dont need to commit a A380 to any route year round.
A lot of routes can be supported by an A380 year round. Others can be rotated with a 777, 787, or A350 while the A380 flys to other seasonal destinations.


When you have to crew the plane, allow for parts and servicing and organise landing slots / terminal space with an airport, swapping aircraft types can be a very complex task.

From a product perspective you want to present a consistent product to the flying customer. For instance swapping out a 4-class A380 with a two class 787 may suit the rote the airline is serving.

In a post-CORSIA landscape, airlines which aren't flexible will disappear, unless their customers are prepared to subsidise empty seats, carbon penalties, and the new formulae proposed for landing charges and overflying.
 
travelhound
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:35 pm

smartplane wrote:
travelhound wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
But you dont need to commit a A380 to any route year round.
A lot of routes can be supported by an A380 year round. Others can be rotated with a 777, 787, or A350 while the A380 flys to other seasonal destinations.


When you have to crew the plane, allow for parts and servicing and organise landing slots / terminal space with an airport, swapping aircraft types can be a very complex task.

From a product perspective you want to present a consistent product to the flying customer. For instance swapping out a 4-class A380 with a two class 787 may suit the rote the airline is serving.

In a post-CORSIA landscape, airlines which aren't flexible will disappear, unless their customers are prepared to subsidise empty seats, carbon penalties, and the new formulae proposed for landing charges and overflying.


Agreed, but with the caveat, smaller aircraft like the 787 give airlines the flexibility they need in a dynamic market place.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:07 pm

SQ789 wrote:
There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.


They have now been formally cancelled: https://thewest.com.au/business/aviatio ... 881097650z
 
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Revelation
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:10 am

Stitch wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.


They have now been formally cancelled: https://thewest.com.au/business/aviatio ... 881097650z

It looks like Alan Joyce has chosen sobriety! :biggrin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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SQ789
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 1:27 am

Revelation wrote:
Stitch wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
There must a question for QF's A380. They have been postponed for many times (according to Wikipedia) and they are still postponed until further notice. Very strange that a long time order but now still deferred should already been cancelled or converted to options.


They have now been formally cancelled: https://thewest.com.au/business/aviatio ... 881097650z

It looks like Alan Joyce has chosen sobriety! :biggrin:

I finally know it. Thanks for the info. The A380 is now in thread as Emirates also plan to abandon some A380 orders to another aircraft in addition to QF cancelling A380 order.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
aaexecplat
Posts: 460
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:54 am

Bricktop wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
The writing's on the wall for that beast. And it's a good thing.

Boeing 747 is next, thankfully - whether you like it, or not.

Why would it be a good thing? Sometimes I wonder if people here are even aviation enthusiasts...

As an aviation enthusiast, the only reason it could be a “good thing” would be in allowing Airbus to focus on the next thing instead.
I thought the EK order was great, but it seems to be turning to poop fairly rapidly.
Nah. The same people cheering for the demise of the A380 now claiming it needs to make room for more innovation are the same people who will $hit on any innovative next airplane from Airbus no matter what. This isn't about innovation...

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk
 
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flee
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:55 am

The recent "updates" to the A380 order book does indicate that Airbus is trying to establish how many new A380s need to be built in before firm orders are fulfilled. As such, doubtful orders need to be weeded out. With EK, its failure to come to terms with RR has come to a head as the Airbus deadline to confirm the orders has passed. With QF, Aibrus needed a definitive answer and got it instantly. So we should be hearing more about those remaining doubtful orders that remain in the coming weeks.

Once Airbus gets the complete picture and the orderbook is tidied up, discussions with EK about their remaining orders can be finalised too. Then, solid plans can be made to end A380 production with a firm date.
 
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flee
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:01 am

aaexecplat wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Why would it be a good thing? Sometimes I wonder if people here are even aviation enthusiasts...

As an aviation enthusiast, the only reason it could be a “good thing” would be in allowing Airbus to focus on the next thing instead.
I thought the EK order was great, but it seems to be turning to poop fairly rapidly.
Nah. The same people cheering for the demise of the A380 now claiming it needs to make room for more innovation are the same people who will $hit on any innovative next airplane from Airbus no matter what. This isn't about innovation...

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk

Yes, the Boeing fanboys are currently rabid. But soon, they will find another pet project to jump on.

As an aviation enthusiast, I am trying to fly on as many A380 and B747 flights as I can manage. These are magnificent machines and I am going to enjoy them for as long as I can!
 
speedbird52
Posts: 450
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:16 am

aaexecplat wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
Why would it be a good thing? Sometimes I wonder if people here are even aviation enthusiasts...

As an aviation enthusiast, the only reason it could be a “good thing” would be in allowing Airbus to focus on the next thing instead.
I thought the EK order was great, but it seems to be turning to poop fairly rapidly.
Nah. The same people cheering for the demise of the A380 now claiming it needs to make room for more innovation are the same people who will $hit on any innovative next airplane from Airbus no matter what. This isn't about innovation...

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk

I mean I am not sure what more innovation we will have in recent years. The A380 was an economic disaster, but an engineering marvel because of exactly what made it such a marvel. We have often heard the mantra of: "If it aint broke don't fix it", and for the next couple of decades, I think medium sized twins will be the way to go for Boeing and Airbus. And frankly, nothing really is exciting about them to me as an aviation enthusiast. Watching a 747 take to the sky or land reminds me of birds of prey taking flight. Looking at an A380 sitting on the ground and then remembering that it flies is truly a reminder of the great things human kind can do. Learning about the effort it took to keep Concorde in the air is a story of just how full of hot air we are as a species, how we will push ourselves until God himself no longer can allow us to do anymore. Don't get me wrong, every single aircraft from a Cessna to a Space Shuttle is a marvel in itself, but sometimes even the most marvelous things become difficult to be inspiring.

The A380 and 747-8 were commercial disasters, but the A380 managed to create a sense of awe in people few other aircraft ever could. And The 747-8 is possibly the most gorgeous airplane ever made.
Proud to be a sl*t shamer of both sexes
 
speedbird52
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:18 am

From a technical perspective, is reengining currently in-service A380s possible? It has been done in the past to my knowledge
Proud to be a sl*t shamer of both sexes
 
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Slug71
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:37 am

flee wrote:
aaexecplat wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
As an aviation enthusiast, the only reason it could be a “good thing” would be in allowing Airbus to focus on the next thing instead.
I thought the EK order was great, but it seems to be turning to poop fairly rapidly.
Nah. The same people cheering for the demise of the A380 now claiming it needs to make room for more innovation are the same people who will $hit on any innovative next airplane from Airbus no matter what. This isn't about innovation...

Sent from my SM-T810 using Tapatalk

Yes, the Boeing fanboys are currently rabid. But soon, they will find another pet project to jump on.

As an aviation enthusiast, I am trying to fly on as many A380 and B747 flights as I can manage. These are magnificent machines and I am going to enjoy them for as long as I can!


They will still be in service for a long time. Cleaning the backlog doesn't really mean much anyway.
 
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flee
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:00 am

speedbird52 wrote:
From a technical perspective, is reengining currently in-service A380s possible? It has been done in the past to my knowledge

It is possible but the cost/benefit equation is not in its favour.

It will cost a fair bit to test and certify a new engine and current tech engines don't give sufficient efficiency margins to justify it. That was why Airbus said (many years ago) that new technology (post-2025) engines will be required before they can do a Neo.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:08 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
I mean I am not sure what more innovation we will have in recent years. The A380 was an economic disaster, but an engineering marvel because of exactly what made it such a marvel.

The real flaw was in the area of product definition, significantly when the choice was made to "bake in" a stretch in the baseline model.

In some companies, marketing is technical enough to have driven such a decision.

In others, marketing would decide key parameters such as payload and range, and engineering would make more detailed decisions about whether to build in a stretch or not.

I'm not sure how this would have been done by Airbus.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own

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