How do you make Boeing realize the importance of the Philippine market, and actually make an effort to sell stuff there? I mean the Philippine economy is booming and has a population of more than 100 million, and Boeing has not sold planes there for more than a generation already.

Perhaps Boeing sees them as a financial risk. Airbus has always been the choice product for the less financially fit airlines. That's how they got started in the US. Boeing and MD weren't willing to extend financing to Pan Am and Eastern due to their awful financial position.

Didn't Philippine Airlines take delivery of some additional 77W in the past few years?

ren0312 wrote:

and Boeing has not sold planes there for more than a generation already.

I must be imagining the 10 77Ws in PAL's fleet then.

I'm pretty sure that when a Philippine airline puts out a request for bids Boeing doesn't just ignore it, they submit a bid, then it's down to the airline.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Perhaps Boeing sees them as a financial risk. Airbus has always been the choice product for the less financially fit airlines. That's how they got started in the US. Boeing and MD weren't willing to extend financing to Pan Am and Eastern due to their awful financial position.

And yet contrast that to Boeing selling 100 737MAXs to start-up Green Africa Airways.

To answer the question, just because airlines from the Philippines don’t order Boeing doesn’t mean it’s Boeing’s ignoring the market.

ren0312 wrote:

How do you make Boeing realize the importance of the Philippine market, and actually make an effort to sell stuff there? I mean the Philippine economy is booming and has a population of more than 100 million, and Boeing has not sold planes there for more than a generation already.

I don't think Boeing is actively ignoring the Philippine market. It's just that compared to China or India or the US or Europe, it's just not that big.

This is why the ASEAN collective should come together as one as an economic bloc. As a whole, the ASEAN region is the third most populated region in the world after China & India.

I mean what chance do they have to forward their products in the Philippines past Long Haul? The market is saturated with Airbus making the area much more Airbus crew friendly with far more knowledgeable on the Airbus with Boeing really only having presence in Long Haul and a small bit of short.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I don't quite see how Boeing just "ignore" Philippine market, either. You really think Boeing didn't pitch 737NG to replace those 737 Classics? Alas, Airbus probably provide a better deal.

The only possibilities otherwise are 787s for PR. PR used to operate A340s, though, and thus, unsurprisingly they went with A330 to replace those A340 on mid-haul, and B77W for long-haul. A330 is THE regional workhorse anyway.

If look at page 191 of the December issue of PAL in-flight magazine mabuhay, you can make out a B787-9 in PAL livery as among model the models dispayed. I heard that is was given by representative from Boeing when PAL was looking for a replacement for there A340-300. The B787-9 was competing with the Airbus A350-900 in which PAL pick the latter choice and know is in service within there fleet.

They missed the boat. All the airlines already made their orders and they’re being disciplined about their capacity. Next RFP won’t be for another couple of years and even those are likely to be top-ups.

I do expect the 787-10 to be an attractive aircraft when the time comes to replace the A330s of PR and 5J. But that’s a long way off.

LurveBus wrote:

They missed the boat. All the airlines already made their orders and they’re being disciplined about their capacity. Next RFP won’t be for another couple of years and even those are likely to be top-ups.

I do expect the 787-10 to be an attractive aircraft when the time comes to replace the A330s of PR and 5J. But that’s a long way off.

I agree the 787 Dreamliner has still potential here in the Philippines especially since PAL hasn't totally ruleout acquiring them in the near future. I can see PAL having both B789 and B78J in there fleet which will nicely complement the A359 and A35K which can be used on long-haul while the B787 on medium to short routes, And the B789 for CEB which the can used even to launch trans-pacifc flights if they choose to or regional flights within asia. However I wouldn't also ruleout that CEB will go for the A339 which they can also used as stayted previously.

Compared to other countries in the SE Asian region, especially considering the size of the population of the country, you can only conclude that the airlines of the Philippines have small fleets and only have a very limited number of new aircraft on order. So it's not a big market yet. Airbus might be biggest share in this market, but it's still very small compared to all the business they do in other countries in the region.

Boeing will of course want to play a bigger role in this market when it starts to catch up. We will see how successful their sales team will be in the Philippines. Maybe they can court a new start-up LCC airline for a large 737MAX order. It depends on when and how fast the market will grow in the next decade.

Just want to add but aside from smaller market I also think consolidation may have played a role as previously back in 2012 there where 6 major airlines at the time CEB, SRQ, EZD, APG, GAP and PAL. Them between 2013-2015 the number of airlines was reduced by half to just 3. GAP is now operating on behalf of PAL and primarily operates domestic and select charter flights. EZD was acquired by APG and both merged with APG the surviving brand and inherit the Z2 flight from EZD. SRQ was also acquired this time by CEB and know operates a fleet of ATR 72 and also operates on behalf of CEB. IMHO this consolidation may have played a role on limiting the market for new aircraft type.

I don't think Boeing is deliberately ignoring any market. But the truth is, no Filipino airline is making large order, to either Airbus or Boeing. When there is a VietJet, AirAsia, Lion Air, Indigo or China (not China Airlines, but just "China") type of order (i.e. in the magnitude of 200+ aircraft in one order), then there will be attention.

The other way is if the airlines there start asking about a model that is selling slow (e.g. MAX7, 787-10, A330-800, etc.), then you don't need such a large order. May be 20 or 30 or so will get you a lot of attention from the manufacturer.

PR77W wrote:

If look at page 191 of the December issue of PAL in-flight magazine mabuhay, you can make out a B787-9 in PAL livery as among model the models dispayed. I heard that is was given by representative from Boeing when PAL was looking for a replacement for there A340-300. The B787-9 was competing with the Airbus A350-900 in which PAL pick the latter choice and know is in service within there fleet.

Quite off-topic, but why does their in-flight magazine have that many pages? What a waste of paper monthly!

Momo1435 wrote:

Compared to other countries in the SE Asian region, especially considering the size of the population of the country, you can only conclude that the airlines of the Philippines have small fleets and only have a very limited number of new aircraft on order. So it's not a big market yet. Airbus might be biggest share in this market, but it's still very small compared to all the business they do in other countries in the region.

Boeing will of course want to play a bigger role in this market when it starts to catch up. We will see how successful their sales team will be in the Philippines. Maybe they can court a new start-up LCC airline for a large 737MAX order. It depends on when and how fast the market will grow in the next decade.

The thing that surprises me more is the relatively low frequency on domestic routes (Other than maybe MNL-CEB), especially compare to Indonesia or even Vietnam (Routes outside of HAN-SGN, that is). But I guess even if frequency increases on those flights, it'll still be just A320s at a maximum (and more likely a bunch of ATRs) due to the extremely outdated airports in Philippines (Yes, that include you, the world infamous NAIA).

I won't be too optimistic about another LCC startup. 5J (Cebu Pacific) already has most of that market captured, with the rest controlled by Z2 (Philippine AirAsia). Neither are going to MAX anytime soon. Their A330s are also fairly new (Oldest one delivered in 2013) and thus, 5J is not in a rush for mid/long-haul fleet replacement, either (Nor PR, whose A330s are just as new).

Momo1435 wrote:

Compared to other countries in the SE Asian region, especially considering the size of the population of the country, you can only conclude that the airlines of the Philippines have small fleets and only have a very limited number of new aircraft on order. So it's not a big market yet. Airbus might be biggest share in this market, but it's still very small compared to all the business they do in other countries in the region.

Boeing will of course want to play a bigger role in this market when it starts to catch up. We will see how successful their sales team will be in the Philippines. Maybe they can court a new start-up LCC airline for a large 737MAX order. It depends on when and how fast the market will grow in the next decade.

That's exactly the kind of thinking that led Boeing to have such a small market share in the Philippines to begin with. When Cebu Pacific was replacing its DC-9s, Airbus offered them 10 A319s + 2 A320s for a competitive price while Boeing would only offer them the 717. Today, Cebu Pacific flies 51 Airbus aircraft with 37 more on order.

When PAL was bought by San Miguel, the new owner had a very clear preference for Boeing aircraft. What did that result in? A 54-aircraft Airbus order in 2014. Good thing there were already 77Ws in the fleet which justified the top-up lease of 4 additional 77Ws.

Heck, if it weren't for the 747 deposits, they would've gotten the A346 over the 77W (though thankfully they didn't). Airbus has been very flexible with PAL, especially during that period when they were in receivership.

Pity, coz the 787 family would be such a perfect fit for PR.

zakuivcustom wrote:

The thing that surprises me more is the relatively low frequency on domestic routes (Other than maybe MNL-CEB), especially compare to Indonesia or even Vietnam (Routes outside of HAN-SGN, that is). But I guess even if frequency increases on those flights, it'll still be just A320s at a maximum (and more likely a bunch of ATRs) due to the extremely outdated airports in Philippines (Yes, that include you, the world infamous NAIA).

I won't be too optimistic about another LCC startup. 5J (Cebu Pacific) already has most of that market captured, with the rest controlled by Z2 (Philippine AirAsia). Neither are going to MAX anytime soon. Their A330s are also fairly new (Oldest one delivered in 2013) and thus, 5J is not in a rush for mid/long-haul fleet replacement, either (Nor PR, whose A330s are just as new).

That's usually thanks to slot constraints in Manila and the lack of night-rating in a lot of domestic airports. So they upgauge flights instead. A321s are flying where A319s used to go.

Spiderguy252 wrote:

PR77W wrote:

If look at page 191 of the December issue of PAL in-flight magazine mabuhay, you can make out a B787-9 in PAL livery as among model the models dispayed. I heard that is was given by representative from Boeing when PAL was looking for a replacement for there A340-300. The B787-9 was competing with the Airbus A350-900 in which PAL pick the latter choice and know is in service within there fleet.

Quite off-topic, but why does their in-flight magazine have that many pages? What a waste of paper monthly!

PR only uses one publication for its inflight magazine, duty-free catalog and entertainment guide. This would normally be 2-3 publications with other airlines.

zakuivcustom wrote:

The thing that surprises me more is the relatively low frequency on domestic routes (Other than maybe MNL-CEB), especially compare to Indonesia or even Vietnam (Routes outside of HAN-SGN, that is). But I guess even if frequency increases on those flights, it'll still be just A320s at a maximum (and more likely a bunch of ATRs) due to the extremely outdated airports in Philippines (Yes, that include you, the world infamous NAIA).

There is demand as well. For markets like MNL-GES, there is only enough demand for a single daily flight. Back when PR had 744s, they frequently made MNL-GES runs because more often than not, cargo drove the route, not passenger demand.

That said, I don't think the quality of infrastructure has anything to do with low frequencies. Indonesia has a lot of outdated airports as well but that didn't stop their airlines from having multiple flights a day. One of the more tragic qualities of the Philippine aviation market is that on many routes, it still isn't competitive enough with buses and ships to encourage people to move en masse to planes, coupled with the fact that you can carry a lot more cargo in a roll-on/roll-off ferry or a bus than you can on a plane. Why be limited to 15-20 kg when you can easily carry 2-3x more on a ferry, especially when you're not in a hurry, right?

FWIW, though, the Philippines is upgrading a lot of airports. Night rating is making its way to more domestic stations as a way to ease congestion at MNL, so while the new airports have them from the get-go, upgrading older airports is key. I know USU (Busuanga), OZC (Ozamiz) and BXU (Butuan) were targeted for upgrades to support nighttime operations, among others.

ren0312 wrote:

How do you make Boeing realize the importance of the Philippine market, and actually make an effort to sell stuff there? I mean the Philippine economy is booming and has a population of more than 100 million, and Boeing has not sold planes there for more than a generation already.

Boeing has finite capacity. Are you suggesting Boeing should have chased a deal, sacrificing the profit now for long term order prospects?

How many airlines are there in the Philippines? 3?
Air Asia - Already an Airbus shop, not a native Philippine airline.
Cebu ~ 50 planes
Philippines ~ 70 planes (some Boeing).

If the airlines in the Philippines grow substantially, they will be large enough for a mixed fleet, but as of now that really doesn't make sense.

Having lived for a total of a year in the Philippines, I have been struck by the overwhelming lack of capital in nearly every part of Philippine society. So financing something as expensive as an airliner is a huge deal, and whichever company offers better financing is probably going to get the order. One other observation. When I first started going to the Philippines in 2013, getting a flight from Manila to Dipolog was no problem at all (I flew PAL) and the flights were sparsely populated. The last time I went was in 2017, and I booked our flight on fairly short notice. I had no trouble booking our CX flight JFK-MNL, but we had to stay 6 days in Manila before we could get a flight to Dipolog on either PAL or Cebu Pacific (each has one flight per day). It was the same on our return flight, but I booked it enough in advance this time. But every seat was taken. On my first trip, to meet my fiancée, the fare was ridiculously low (I think around $35 round trip because it was a special promotion) that when it came time for me to return I bought her a round trip ticket to Manila so we could have that much more time together. Again, the flight was sparsely populated. No more. So I am expecting both airlines to be expanding; it seems clear that demand is increasing. And the ridiculously low fares are much more rare. If Boeing is going to grab part of this they need to sharpen their pencils and offer better financing. I suspect that is why, except for the 77Ws, they have been shut out recently.

TTailedTiger wrote:

Perhaps Boeing sees them as a financial risk. Airbus has always been the choice product for the less financially fit airlines. That's how they got started in the US. Boeing and MD weren't willing to extend financing to Pan Am and Eastern due to their awful financial position.

Never thought of that! That’s why Panam ended up with the A310 then.

If airlines are not buying there isn't a lot a manufacturer can do but wait... Some A.neters seem to be oblivious to the fact that airlines not the manufacturers determine fleet size, make-up and when they want or can afford to buy.

LurveBus wrote:

That's usually thanks to slot constraints in Manila and the lack of night-rating in a lot of domestic airports. So they upgauge flights instead. A321s are flying where A319s used to go.

Akiestar wrote:

That said, I don't think the quality of infrastructure has anything to do with low frequencies. Indonesia has a lot of outdated airports as well but that didn't stop their airlines from having multiple flights a day. One of the more tragic qualities of the Philippine aviation market is that on many routes, it still isn't competitive enough with buses and ships to encourage people to move en masse to planes, coupled with the fact that you can carry a lot more cargo in a roll-on/roll-off ferry or a bus than you can on a plane. Why be limited to 15-20 kg when you can easily carry 2-3x more on a ferry, especially when you're not in a hurry, right?

FWIW, though, the Philippines is upgrading a lot of airports. Night rating is making its way to more domestic stations as a way to ease congestion at MNL, so while the new airports have them from the get-go, upgrading older airports is key. I know USU (Busuanga), OZC (Ozamiz) and BXU (Butuan) were targeted for upgrades to support nighttime operations, among others.

Night rating is definitely something that I didn't thought about. Sigh...so the aviation infrastructure situation in the Philippines is worse than I thought (I've only been to CEB, and that was years ago).

How many airlines are there which are based in the Philippines and have a fleet that contains jet aircraft with 130+ seats?

Of those, which are currently buying new planes?

Seems to me the actual market is limited, and therefore, one cannot really conclude from the airlines' fleets that Boeing is or is not "paying attention" to them.

In some cases, there is political pressure from the government to purchase a certain brand aircraft.

Perhaps they can get some sharks with frikin' lazers on their heads to get Boeing's attention?

zakuivcustom wrote:

Night rating is definitely something that I didn't thought about. Sigh...so the aviation infrastructure situation in the Philippines is worse than I thought (I've only been to CEB, and that was years ago).

I think you're jumping to conclusions there. Philippine aviation infrastructure isn't great, but it isn't terrible either:

* The CAAP is deploying a new CNS/ATM system. MNL and CRK have already transitioned to the new system (they each have their own individual ATMCs), with other stations to transition throughout 2019.

* New airports: TAG and SWL (San Vicente, Palawan) just opened, while the replacement for LGP is under construction. Terminals in CEB, PPS, KLO, VRC (Virac), OMC (Ormoc), EUQ (San Jose, Antique), SJI (San Jose, Mindoro), CRM (Catarman), IAO (Siargao) and RPSM (Maasin) have all been upgraded in the last five years, and MPH will receive a new terminal once construction is complete.

* Night rating: the government aims to have all 42 CAAP-operated airports night-rated by the end of Rodrigo Duterte's term. Of the 42, half already support nighttime operations.

910A wrote:

In some cases, there is political pressure from the government to purchase a certain brand aircraft.

Not in the Philippines. PR/2P, 5J/DG and Z2 are all private companies and the government has no say in their fleet purchasing decisions.

There’s only one reason the Philippine domestic market isn’t bigger than it is, and one reason only. It’s because of the fact that MNL is completly full and overcrowded, there have not been any slots available for years now! Once the new airport opens (in X years?), believe me when I say that the airport will grow by 10-15% annually for many years before it slows down. Because there is HUGE demand from the domestic market, and as the economy is growing by 6-7% per year and tourism by 10%, the constraints in avaition growth will lead to a huge jump once more capacity is enabled!