BTVB6Flyer
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Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Continuing the discussion here for 2019.

F9 getting us started with TPA-RDU beginning 5/1 at 4x weekly. Not sure if this one will last, DL and WN already cover the market and the LF's on those aren't exactly good from what I have seen posted on IG from a TPA spotter.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/busin ... 14455.html

Previous Thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382817&hilit=what%27s+next+for+tpa
 
FLYKTPA
Posts: 407
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:59 pm

Imo DL is fine because that route mainly caters to RDU biz travelers and keeping them happy by offering service to popular leisure destinations. Southwest provides too much capacity on the route imo but they continue to do so. I assume they are happy with it. If anything, I think this will stimulate the market and take some traffic away from G4’s PIE route.

At the end to the day I’m just happy Frontier is giving it a try. If it works it should stay and maybe go daily or they will end it.
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:01 pm

F9 isn’t shooting in the dark, nor are they shy about running if it doesn’t pan out. Not too worried about the incumbents in this case. Four carriers on the route is a lot, however. Wonder if DL ditches the seasonal mainline upgrade to manage capacity?

Small peas compared to AC’s double daily widebodies, but I was surprised to see an Air Transat A320 at TPA on Thursdays now.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:53 pm

I agree that DL and WN are fine, but obviously isn't going to help their yield. As with all F9's routes, it's either going to stick if it does well or it's gone.

F9 still has the ATL 'ghost' bookable flight and the previous mentioned ABQ and SAT as potential future routes and of course any N-S snowbird routes served by MCO already as potential in the future.

And I saw Air Transat A320 on FlightAware, but then went to Wikipedia and didn't see they had one, is it the A321? Between them and Swoop and even WestJet, really wishing they do well and start expanding frequencies and services.
 
Aeroflot777ER
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:03 pm

Maybe J2 from GYD 2x using 40s? There's a huge pop of GYDs in TPA.
Last edited by Aeroflot777ER on Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Aeroflot777ER
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:03 pm

Maybe J2 from GYD 2x using 40s? There's a huge pop of GYDs in TPA.
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:58 pm

FLYKTPA wrote:
Imo DL is fine because that route mainly caters to RDU biz travelers and keeping them happy by offering service to popular leisure destinations. Southwest provides too much capacity on the route imo but they continue to do so. I assume they are happy with it. If anything, I think this will stimulate the market and take some traffic away from G4’s PIE route.

At the end to the day I’m just happy Frontier is giving it a try. If it works it should stay and maybe go daily or they will end it.


A trip I took in late September through RDU almost everyone was connecting. DL was pushing connection through there at very attractive prices.
 
Flyingstump
Posts: 73
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:16 am

Can we change this thread title to "What's Happening in Tampa Bay 2019 (TPA, PIE)"? Route wise, both airports are experiencing significant growth in the same market, and both airports are in the process of undergoing significant infrastructure projects.

I think Allegiant has surpassed United as the region's 4th largest carrier. If we don't include PIE, understanding competition in the market (Like F9 on ORF-TPA vs G4 on ORF-PIE) won't be discussed or understood.
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:25 pm

Calendar 2018 pax numbers are in, and traffic is up 8.5% to 21,289,390, according to the TPA IG account. Great numbers!
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Posts: 418
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:41 pm

axiom wrote:
Calendar 2018 pax numbers are in, and traffic is up 8.5% to 21,289,390, according to the TPA IG account. Great numbers!


Awesome!

Can't wait to see the breakdown soon. I know it's going to be awhile, but next up 25M passengers.


Also TPA's website now has airlines flight schedules broken down by cities and frequencies and even aircraft.

http://tampaairport.com/flight-schedules
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:47 pm

Is this the year we finally get BOG or dark horse (MEX)?
 
deltadudejg
Posts: 235
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:57 pm

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
axiom wrote:
Calendar 2018 pax numbers are in, and traffic is up 8.5% to 21,289,390, according to the TPA IG account. Great numbers!


Awesome!

Can't wait to see the breakdown soon. I know it's going to be awhile, but next up 25M passengers.


Also TPA's website now has airlines flight schedules broken down by cities and frequencies and even aircraft.

http://tampaairport.com/flight-schedules


That's how they used to always post their schedules, I haven't looked at them in so long, I'm assuming they've been done differently?
Aviation Enthusiast working in Airport Operations
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:04 am

Yeah, they’ve been posting these schedules for years. It would be a nice feature, if they weren’t riddled with filing and coding errors. For a chuckle, look at the airline name for Norwegian or Southern Airways Express. ;-)
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:04 am

deltadudejg wrote:
BTVB6Flyer wrote:
axiom wrote:
Calendar 2018 pax numbers are in, and traffic is up 8.5% to 21,289,390, according to the TPA IG account. Great numbers!


Awesome!

Can't wait to see the breakdown soon. I know it's going to be awhile, but next up 25M passengers.


Also TPA's website now has airlines flight schedules broken down by cities and frequencies and even aircraft.

http://tampaairport.com/flight-schedules


That's how they used to always post their schedules, I haven't looked at them in so long, I'm assuming they've been done differently?


Ahh dang, I remembered something similar, just didn't realize it was this in depth before.
 
Tradewinds71
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:16 pm

Looks like starting next month Copa is reducing their TPA frequency to 5X week. Any insights as to why they are reducing? Load factors seem to be pretty good, exceeding 80%. Seasonal or temporary adjustment?
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:29 pm

Tradewinds71 wrote:
Looks like starting next month Copa is reducing their TPA frequency to 5X week. Any insights as to why they are reducing? Load factors seem to be pretty good, exceeding 80%. Seasonal or temporary adjustment?

January and February is a slow period for the route. It goes back to daily in the Spring.
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:40 am

Good catch. Wasn’t it 4x this time last year? Still an improvement.
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:52 am

Tampa (TPA) International Load Factors for June 2018:
Westjet YYZ 94%
Southwest HAV 91%
Lufthansa FRA 87%
Copa PTY 85%
Air Canada YYZ 84%
Delta CUN 81%
Icelandair KEF 80%
British Airways LGW 76%
Edelweiss ZRH 72%
Cayman Airways GCM 61%
Westjet TPA-YYT 87% YYT-TPA 24% (last flight of the season so the snow birds are returning home)

Source: aviationdb.net
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
BTVB6Flyer
Topic Author
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:01 am

Really wish WestJet would do more in TPA instead of reduce.

Hopefully AirTransat and Swoop are doing well and can maybe stimulate the Canadian market from TPA, as it's been kinda lagging as of late.
 
Flyingstump
Posts: 73
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:43 am

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:24 am

FLYKTPA wrote:
Tampa (TPA) International Load Factors for June 2018:
Westjet YYZ 94%
Southwest HAV 91%
Lufthansa FRA 87%
Copa PTY 85%
Air Canada YYZ 84%
Delta CUN 81%
Icelandair KEF 80%
British Airways LGW 76%
Edelweiss ZRH 72%
Cayman Airways GCM 61%
Westjet TPA-YYT 87% YYT-TPA 24% (last flight of the season so the snow birds are returning home)

Source: aviationdb.net


That LGW load factor makes me a little nervous. Let's hope that competition leads to lower fares that stimulate growth through a larger pool of clients...but the fear is that there may be growth but not enough to sustain 2 carriers. Here's to hoping that LFs jump to over 80% for both carriers given that yields will likely reduce with lower fares!
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:11 am

Flyingstump wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Tampa (TPA) International Load Factors for June 2018:
Westjet YYZ 94%
Southwest HAV 91%
Lufthansa FRA 87%
Copa PTY 85%
Air Canada YYZ 84%
Delta CUN 81%
Icelandair KEF 80%
British Airways LGW 76%
Edelweiss ZRH 72%
Cayman Airways GCM 61%
Westjet TPA-YYT 87% YYT-TPA 24% (last flight of the season so the snow birds are returning home)

Source: aviationdb.net




That LGW load factor makes me a little nervous. Let's hope that competition leads to lower fares that stimulate growth through a larger pool of clients...but the fear is that there may be growth but not enough to sustain 2 carriers. Here's to hoping that LFs jump to over 80% for both carriers given that yields will likely reduce with lower fares!



Yes, this is concerning. But I believe by this point BA was operating the densified 777 on the route, so we’re talking about a significant jump in capacity (60 sears, right?). Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

I have my doubts about the long-term presence of Norwegian in the market. I think they’re the first to blink among the new entrants. That said, they’ve got a relatively easy task of filling seats from the UK to Florida. I’ve flown them on the route twice in the last month, and LFs have been 95% and 75% — but at rock bottom pricing, even last minute. Who makes money on $400 r/t TA flights?
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 325
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:04 am

I've flown some really shit airlines, but BA is dreadful even by my standards. Surprising they're even making 76%.
 
FLYKTPA
Posts: 407
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:34 pm

Flyingstump wrote:
FLYKTPA wrote:
Tampa (TPA) International Load Factors for June 2018:
Westjet YYZ 94%
Southwest HAV 91%
Lufthansa FRA 87%
Copa PTY 85%
Air Canada YYZ 84%
Delta CUN 81%
Icelandair KEF 80%
British Airways LGW 76%
Edelweiss ZRH 72%
Cayman Airways GCM 61%
Westjet TPA-YYT 87% YYT-TPA 24% (last flight of the season so the snow birds are returning home)

Source: aviationdb.net


That LGW load factor makes me a little nervous. Let's hope that competition leads to lower fares that stimulate growth through a larger pool of clients...but the fear is that there may be growth but not enough to sustain 2 carriers. Here's to hoping that LFs jump to over 80% for both carriers given that yields will likely reduce with lower fares!


The BA flight is fine. The 76% is with a sizable fare premium over MCO and more seats due the reconfigured interior. If BA wanted a higher LF they’d lower the prices and take back those who are driving to MCO. I imagine they make more money keeping the fares higher and the loads in the mid 70s. It will be interesting to watch now that Norwegian is competing. I imagine BA’s loads will increase as they will feel pressured to lower fares some.
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
BTVB6Flyer
Topic Author
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:25 am

Looks like NK is starting EWR March 1. Running till April. Like an extended Spring Break route.

No announcement, but it's bookable.
 
Tradewinds71
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:47 pm

Looks like CM’s reduction to less than daily is also happening from August on as well. Disappointing and surprising... Flew the TPA/PTY route 1/19 and again 1/27. Jammed packed on both.
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:52 pm

Tradewinds71 wrote:
Looks like CM’s reduction to less than daily is also happening from August on as well. Disappointing and surprising... Flew the TPA/PTY route 1/19 and again 1/27. Jammed packed on both.


Spring and fall are the two slow periods for the flight. It makes sense to reduce during those times if they feel daily is too much. At least it’s 5x weekly so still an increase and daily during the peak periods (summer and December).
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:02 pm

I feel that this 2019 is the year Spirit tries something international. They have been growing like crazy in Orlando and markets like TPA- BOG, CUN, SDQ and MBJ are ripe for a nonstop. Nothing crazy but 2-3x weekly should do well on all of those based on the PDEW for each.
Huge fan of Tampa International Airport
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:00 pm

LH goes up to 6w in November. Could this signal daily service by summer 2020?

Small peas, but WN is launching weekend only TPA-RIC, and Swoop is extending YHM into May.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:15 pm

Yea, I think we see daily from LH sooner rather than later.

RIC makes sense they will do fine on this route, especially at 2x weekly. TPA's route portfolio expanding nicely.

Also saw WN's Saturday only 2x daily to HAV starts soon. Both flights leave before 11am from TPA which I found kinda interesting. Would have thought the second would have been later in day to allow for any possible connections, of which I doubt there are many, but also space out time options.
 
axiom
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:34 pm

Looks like LH goes 6w (x3) on April 2. A last minute increase. But the flights are also showing CL as the operator, so it seems that TPA is back to the higher capacity birds.
 
Murdoughnut
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:25 pm

axiom wrote:
Looks like LH goes 6w (x3) on April 2. A last minute increase. But the flights are also showing CL as the operator, so it seems that TPA is back to the higher capacity birds.


Temporarily until it becomes mainline permanently this summer.
 
FlyerTalkUserNa
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:30 am

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:14 pm

United Airlines to invest $33M in new facility at Tampa International Airport:

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/ne ... ty-at.html

The article states

The agreement, if approved, would last 20 years with two, five-year renewal options.

Ground rent for the first year would be roughly $300 million.


That has to be a typo.
 
graham697
Posts: 369
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 11:59 am

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:22 pm

FlyerTalkUserNa wrote:
United Airlines to invest $33M in new facility at Tampa International Airport:

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/ne ... ty-at.html

The article states

The agreement, if approved, would last 20 years with two, five-year renewal options.

Ground rent for the first year would be roughly $300 million.


That has to be a typo.


Looks like they fixed the typo, but I had the same eyebrow raising thought you did. Also interesting if you look at Exhibit A-2 of the lease, the airport proposes a new taxi way to connect to what I assume is the FedEx ramp. Nice to see they have plans to expand the airfield further.
 
BTVB6Flyer
Topic Author
Posts: 418
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Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:13 pm

Southern Airways Express appears to be starting JAX per their website. Says Spring 2019, but can't find hard date. Seems like a no brainer with 3M no longer in the market.

https://iflysouthern.com/
 
graham697
Posts: 369
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 11:59 am

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:33 pm

Not that B6 ever had a big market share on DCA-TPA, but it looks like they are dropping the route in favor of an expanded shuttle to BOS from DCA. Always sad to lose an option, even though I've never flown them on that route. Oops!
 
BojamDelta
Posts: 116
Joined: Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:25 pm

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:46 pm

Could Level make a service work from the continent?

bo)am
 
graham697
Posts: 369
Joined: Fri Dec 12, 2003 11:59 am

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:15 pm

BojamDelta wrote:
Could Level make a service work from the continent?

bo)am


Assuming they would fly out of their BCN base, I think not yet... While I'd love to see TPA be an international powerhouse, the market will be digesting the current European capacity for a while yet. It will be interesting to see what happens when there is a larger economic downcycle.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2305
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:12 am

How well is WN actually doing on TPA-LGA nonstop service? WN will be completely dropping LGA-FLL and EWR-FLL nonstop service this year, and WN has already reduced EWR-MCO nonstop service to Saturday-only. On the other hand, WN will still have 2 daily nonstops to LGA from TPA on weekdays and 1 daily nonstop to LGA from TPA on weekends through the end of the current schedule.

Is WN hanging onto TPA-LGA nonstop service in order to prevent WN from losing slots at LGA, or is WN actually doing better on TPA-LGA nonstop service than on LGA/EWR-MCO or LGA/EWR-FLL nonstop service?
 
BTVB6Flyer
Topic Author
Posts: 418
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 3:20 am

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:54 pm

BOS showing on F9's dropdown from TPA, similar to ATL.

Will see if anything come of that or will be gone like ATL. We haven't had much announced from F9 feel like one is due for upcoming Summer season.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2397
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Whats Next For TPA (Route Wise)? -- 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:57 pm

jplatts wrote:
How well is WN actually doing on TPA-LGA nonstop service? WN will be completely dropping LGA-FLL and EWR-FLL nonstop service this year, and WN has already reduced EWR-MCO nonstop service to Saturday-only. On the other hand, WN will still have 2 daily nonstops to LGA from TPA on weekdays and 1 daily nonstop to LGA from TPA on weekends through the end of the current schedule.

Is WN hanging onto TPA-LGA nonstop service in order to prevent WN from losing slots at LGA, or is WN actually doing better on TPA-LGA nonstop service than on LGA/EWR-MCO or LGA/EWR-FLL nonstop service?

i can tell you TPA-LGA is performing terribly like every other NYC to leisure destination routes tried by WN. I don't know why they keep trying routes like this when there are actually plenty of focus cities they have that don't need NYC point of sale to succeed.

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