787 family future prospects

georgiabill · Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:31 pm

With the new year which airlines do you see topping off their orders or placing orders for the to join their fleets?

My thoughts for new carriers

HD (AirDO) has presently 4 767'S I could see 787 coming from parent AN most likely 788'S or perhaps a direct buy direct from Boeing or lease of new builds 78J. PK depending on U.S. relations order the 787 to replace their 777 fleet when needed my guess would be a mix of 789 and 78J'S
AR with AR ordering the max I could see when it comes time to replace their A330S a mix of 789 and if launched the 797 to fly their long haul routes
AZ for 789 and 78J'S when ownership is sorted out.

For existing carriers
78J QF,NZ,AN,TK AI(when and If ownership is sorted out)AA for heavier demand European South American routes Longshot down the road mid 2020'S DL for higher demand European routes
789 BA,AF,KL AN,JL, QF NZ,ET KE LO DY

Your thoughts

MileHFL400 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:55 am

I can see KQ eventually getting some more

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:19 am

Know I'm going to get flamed for it, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see DL spring for some 78X (and perhaps 789) should Boeing play ball on the price.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them operate perfectly fine in tandem with the A339s and A359s, for any specific role targeted by the carrier.

MileHFL400 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:28 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Know I'm going to get flamed for it, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see DL spring for some 78X (and perhaps 789) should Boeing play ball on the price.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them operate perfectly fine in tandem with the A339s and A359s, for any specific role targeted by the carrier.

Don’t hold your breath.

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:35 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
Don’t hold your breath.

Better yet: don't count it out.

Boeing certainly isn't... Justin Hale and Emily Sylvester went to DL just last month, basically asking "what will it take?" and leaving the question/offer open.

5427247845 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:26 am

LAX772LR wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Don’t hold your breath.

Better yet: don't count it out.

Boeing certainly isn't... Justin Hale and Emily Sylvester went to DL just last month, basically asking "what will it take?" and leaving the question/offer open.

Why would Boeing sell DL some planes almost “for free?”.

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:37 am

marcelh wrote:
Why would Boeing sell DL some planes almost “for free?”.

Where on Earth are you getting "almost for free" from?

Max Q · Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:41 am

What happened to the rumored order from UA to replace the 767 ?

That requirement can be postponed a while but it’s not going away

seahawk · Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:45 am

I think LH group will order some. They always exclude the A330NEO when talking about future purchases and they need something in that size for SN, EW and OE.

raylee67 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:52 am

There are still many 767 that needs to be replaced over the next 10 years or so. Even many airlines with 787 on order does not have enough of them ordered to replace their 767 on a 1-on-1 basis. e.g. ANA still has 17 787s on order, but it still has 31 767 in fleet, and to make the replacement situation worse, some of the 787 on order are going to be replacing the older 777-200A, not the 767s. And you see the same for many other airlines:
JAL - 35 767s, 9 787s remained on order.
LATAM Chile - 18 767s, 12 787s remained on order
The 787 remains to be the best plane to replace 767 for these airlines, unless they want larger planes on some of the 767 routes.

And then there are A330-200s that will need to be replaced too. Airbus does not have a same-size aircraft to replace the A332. A359 is too large as a replacement. A339 does not have the range for the longest A332 route, and arguably it's less of a "new aircraft" than 787. It is possible that some airlines operating the A332 now may choose 787 as replacements, and start ordering in 2019.

strfyr51 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:12 am

Max Q wrote:
What happened to the rumored order from UA to replace the 767 ?

That requirement can be postponed a while but it’s not going away

when Boeing killed the B787-3 that ended the replacement for the B767. when the B797 comes about? That will replace all the B767's.. And? Maybe the B777-200 as well.

5427247845 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:34 am

LAX772LR wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Why would Boeing sell DL some planes almost “for free?”.

Where on Earth are you getting "almost for free" from?

According to A.net, Delta has the A330neo and A350 for “killer prices” and Delta is very good in negotiations. So why on earth should Delta pay Boeing “top dollar” for the B787?

aotearoa · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:43 am

I totally see a HGW version for -9 and -10. QF and NZ are both pushing hard for additional range. It’s only going to happen with additional take off weight.

parapente · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:19 am

Ok so you modify the MLG for additional weight.(thus heavier and range reduced).Then what?
Fuel wing constrained as it is - new belly tanks?
But you will need more lift.Wings are maxed out -they only built the smaller wing of the two they designed.
Engines are maxed out that why RR had to build the XWB ( scaed T1000) for the 350.
Everyone knows there is a gap between the 787 and the 777x -defined by the laws of physics.Thats why Airbus chose that gap for the 350 family.

keesje · Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:18 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Know I'm going to get flamed for it, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see DL spring for some 78X (and perhaps 789) should Boeing play ball on the price.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them operate perfectly fine in tandem with the A339s and A359s, for any specific role targeted by the carrier.

The 787-10 could add value for domestic, TATL and S American flights. And Boeing would probably be ready to re-invest in the Delta relationship, after the melt-down's of recent years. Airbus screwing up somewhere could also help.

StudiodeKadent · Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:27 pm

georgiabill wrote:
With the new year which airlines do you see topping off their orders or placing orders for the to join their fleets?

Cathay may be interested in the 787-10 (since it needs big planes with short ranges). I could see Lufthansa picking it too, to replace the four-class A330s at least.

FlyHPN · Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:53 pm

raylee67 wrote:
JAL - 35 767s, 9 787s remained on order.

JAL has 31 A350 on order with another 25 options, some of which will be coming in a regional config. I could see the options being used for 767 replacements.

TheEuphorian · Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:24 pm

I can see TG ordering 4-8 787-9s for TPAC flights.

Newbiepilot · Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:44 pm

As much fun as it is to speculate about Delta, in reality I see orders coming from leasing companies and perhaps China.

United and American both ordered more 787s last year. I suspect more orders from existing airlines.

I think Korean Air is highly likely

JEJU, South Korea (Reuters) - Korean Air Lines Co Ltd (003490.KS) is very likely to order more Boeing Co (BA.N) 787 widebody jets to mainly replace its existing aircraft, as it seeks to streamline its fleet and reduce costs, its president said on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia ... SKCN1MT0AZ

I suspect more like Korean are likely. Qantas, British Airways, Air New Zealand, LOT, Air Canada, Aeromexico, El Al, Scoot, Virgin Atlantic, TUI, etc could all be interested depending on their expansion plans.

JamesCousins · Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:58 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Know I'm going to get flamed for it, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see DL spring for some 78X (and perhaps 789) should Boeing play ball on the price.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them operate perfectly fine in tandem with the A339s and A359s, for any specific role targeted by the carrier.

I know DL doesn't shy away from operating competing frames, but the cost savings of such a large A330/A330neo/A350 fleet must start to get attractive quickly. Could be hard for Boeing to compete on...

JamesCousins · Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:03 pm

Virgin Atlantic could be a solid contender for a 787 or A350 top up, though ongoing RR engine issues may have put them off. I can't see them retiring their A333s anytime soon, but 789s or A359s could work well for expansion from MAN if they follow their current trajectory.

Aptivaboy · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:05 pm

Better yet: don't count it out.

Agreed. There's a chance, but it is slim and Boeing would really need to do a sales tap dance to make it attractive for DL. Delta's management seems to be rather pro-Airbus, at least for widebodies, at the moment.

fessor · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:18 pm

I Don't see any orders from TG as their customers is pretty unhappy with the 787's they have now, also the proposed fleet plan that was ejected last year didn't have any 787's in the plans

mikejepp · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:34 pm

How about AA adding even more? They seem happy with the 787 and have made it a goal of simplifying their fleet. Their current orders do not allow them to fully retire their 772 and 330 fleets. They have 95 A332, A333, B763, and B772 with only 49 B788/B789 on order.

Also, could we see them ordering the 787-10? The majority of their 330/772 routes are in the 3000-4000nm range.

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:43 pm

marcelh wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Why would Boeing sell DL some planes almost “for free?”.

Where on Earth are you getting "almost for free" from?

According to A.net, Delta has the A330neo and A350 for “killer prices” and Delta is very good in negotiations. So why on earth should Delta pay Boeing “top dollar” for the B787?

So in other words, you're saying you need someone to explain to you the difference between not paying list price, and "almost free." I see. :irked:

JamesCousins wrote:
I know DL doesn't shy away from operating competing frames, but the cost savings of such a large A330/A330neo/A350 fleet must start to get attractive quickly. Could be hard for Boeing to compete on.

Just a matter of scale. Once you reach a sufficient number of differing frames/parts/rotation/crew, than the previously existing equipment becomes not only a non-factor, but could even be a hindrance.

A good example of the latter would be AA's massive split order between 737s and A32X several years ago:
by their management's own admission, the split was due to the inability of one OEM to supply what the airline wanted in the timescale that they wanted.

5427247845 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
marcelh wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Where on Earth are you getting "almost for free" from?

According to A.net, Delta has the A330neo and A350 for “killer prices” and Delta is very good in negotiations. So why on earth should Delta pay Boeing “top dollar” for the B787?

So in other words, you're saying you need someone to explain to you the difference between not paying list price, and "almost free."

Nope. But there has to be some incentive for Delta to go for the 787. And “Designed by Boeing” isn’t enough.

TTailedTiger · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:02 pm

marcelh wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Don’t hold your breath.

Better yet: don't count it out.

Boeing certainly isn't... Justin Hale and Emily Sylvester went to DL just last month, basically asking "what will it take?" and leaving the question/offer open.

Why would Boeing sell DL some planes almost “for free?”.

Agreed. And how in the world would anyone on a.net know what those two Boeing reps were doing in ATL? They could have just as well been there to bid Delta farewell after the last 739 was delivered.

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:11 pm

marcelh wrote:
But there has to be some incentive for Delta to go for the 787. And “Designed by Boeing” isn’t enough.

Which is probably why no one, but you, brought up "designed by Boeing" as even a theoretical justification for anything......

TTailedTiger wrote:
how in the world would anyone on a.net know what those two Boeing reps were doing in ATL?

ANSWER: because those "two Boeing reps" are the 787 Project Manager, and Regional Director of 787 Marketing, respectively.

TTailedTiger · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:21 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
marcelh wrote:
But there has to be some incentive for Delta to go for the 787. And “Designed by Boeing” isn’t enough.

Which is probably why no one, but you, brought up "designed by Boeing" as even a theoretical justification for anything.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Agreed. And how in the world would anyone on a.net know what those two Boeing reps were doing in ATL?

ANSWER: because those "two Boeing reps" are the 787 Program Manager, and Regional Director of 787 marketing.... which even 5seconds of research would've told you.

Well that is sad. Someone needs to have an honest conversation with them. Delta isn't ordering 787's or any Boeing aircraft. Not as long as Ed and the gang are in power. I prefer Boeing but I know a lost cause when I see one. There is no room for a 787 with the A350 and A330 in the fleet. And with 100+ A220 and 200 A321neo on order they have all they need to replace their narrowbody fleet. Boeing can try again in 2040.

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:37 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Well that is sad. Someone needs to have an honest conversation with them. Delta isn't ordering 787's or any Boeing aircraft.

Here, let's have an honest conversation with you:
You have a penchant for declarative statements, based on issues/parameters/data that you (clearly) know nothing about, as if they were fact.

DL could order 787s or other Boeing eqp tomorrow; or a few years from now, or not at all.
We here, least of all you, simply don't know what their next move will be; nor the numerical justification behind it.

Thus, why do you constantly attempt to pretend otherwise, with definitive statements about future corporate strategies that you do not, and could not possibly, know?

ElroyJetson · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:37 pm

LH i think is highly likely as a A330 replacement. DL i think is unlikely. KE would be very smart to buy the 787 with their route network.

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:38 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
KE would be very smart to buy the 787 with their route network.

They have.

jbs2886 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:47 pm

marcelh wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
marcelh wrote:
According to A.net, Delta has the A330neo and A350 for “killer prices” and Delta is very good in negotiations. So why on earth should Delta pay Boeing “top dollar” for the B787?

So in other words, you're saying you need someone to explain to you the difference between not paying list price, and "almost free."

Nope. But there has to be some incentive for Delta to go for the 787. And “Designed by Boeing” isn’t enough.

Boeing may come in and give a good maintenance contract with TechOps, that was important for both the A321neo and A350/A330 orders (IIRC specifically the engines). I wouldn't be surprised if its a 787-10 order in connection with a launch order for the NMA.

jbs2886 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:49 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
As much fun as it is to speculate about Delta, in reality I see orders coming from leasing companies and perhaps China.

United and American both ordered more 787s last year. I suspect more orders from existing airlines.

I think Korean Air is highly likely

JEJU, South Korea (Reuters) - Korean Air Lines Co Ltd (003490.KS) is very likely to order more Boeing Co (BA.N) 787 widebody jets to mainly replace its existing aircraft, as it seeks to streamline its fleet and reduce costs, its president said on Friday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia ... SKCN1MT0AZ

I suspect more like Korean are likely. Qantas, British Airways, Air New Zealand, LOT, Air Canada, Aeromexico, El Al, Scoot, Virgin Atlantic, TUI, etc could all be interested depending on their expansion plans.

Would be great to see more KE 787 orders. They don't have many widebodies left on order.

TTailedTiger · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:52 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
So in other words, you're saying you need someone to explain to you the difference between not paying list price, and "almost free."

Nope. But there has to be some incentive for Delta to go for the 787. And “Designed by Boeing” isn’t enough.

Boeing may come in and give a good maintenance contract with TechOps, that was important for both the A321neo and A350/A330 orders (IIRC specifically the engines). I wouldn't be surprised if its a 787-10 order in connection with a launch order for the NMA.

Boeing and GE aren't the Oprah of maintenance contracts like Airbus, RR, and Pratt. Why give away all of that potential revenue?

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:57 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Why give away all of that potential revenue?

ANSWER: to ensure billions in revenue from the 2nd largest airline on the planet, and to free up internal resources to focus on other ventures.

jbs2886 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:57 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Nope. But there has to be some incentive for Delta to go for the 787. And “Designed by Boeing” isn’t enough.

Boeing may come in and give a good maintenance contract with TechOps, that was important for both the A321neo and A350/A330 orders (IIRC specifically the engines). I wouldn't be surprised if its a 787-10 order in connection with a launch order for the NMA.

Boeing and GE aren't the Oprah of maintenance contracts like Airbus, RR, and Pratt. Why give away all of that potential revenue?

They do "give away" plenty.

Planeflyer · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:57 pm

80% of 330’s will be replaced by787

LAX772LR · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:58 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
80% of 330’s will be replaced by787

You seem to be quite educated on stuff that you completely made up.

georgiabill · Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:59 pm

I am hoping to see NH order more 78J in the future. KE could also add the 78J to their fleet for regional flights. Hoping to hear from a Japanese Anetter on the prospects of HD ordering/leasing 787S to replace their 767 fleet

TTailedTiger · Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:00 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I am hoping to see NH order more 78J in the future. KE could also add the 78J to their fleet for regional flights. Hoping to hear from a Japanese Anetter on the prospects of HD ordering/leasing 787S to replace their 767 fleet

Yes the 787-10 is the best looking commercial aircraft imo and it would look amazing in Korean Air colors.

Planeflyer · Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:12 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
80% of 330’s will be replaced by787

You seem to be quite educated on stuff that you completely made up.

The 330 to the 787 is like 767 was to the 330.

gsg013 · Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:36 pm

You know that DL likes flying the wide-bodies on the premium transcon routes.. (A330, 767-300,767-400ER) along with 757W I could see if Boeing offered a sweet deal and a derated engine/ lower MTOW it could be a good a good option for DL to use on the long domestic routes into congested airports.

Kindanew · Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:48 am

raylee67 wrote:
There are still many 767 that needs to be replaced over the next 10 years or so. Even many airlines with 787 on order does not have enough of them ordered to replace their 767 on a 1-on-1 basis. e.g. ANA still has 17 787s on order, but it still has 31 767 in fleet, and to make the replacement situation worse, some of the 787 on order are going to be replacing the older 777-200A, not the 767s. And you see the same for many other airlines:
JAL - 35 767s, 9 787s remained on order.
LATAM Chile - 18 767s, 12 787s remained on order
The 787 remains to be the best plane to replace 767 for these airlines, unless they want larger planes on some of the 767 routes.

And then there are A330-200s that will need to be replaced too. Airbus does not have a same-size aircraft to replace the A332. A359 is too large as a replacement. A339 does not have the range for the longest A332 route, and arguably it's less of a "new aircraft" than 787. It is possible that some airlines operating the A332 now may choose 787 as replacements, and start ordering in 2019.

A330-800 surely?

TTailedTiger · Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:06 am

Kindanew wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
There are still many 767 that needs to be replaced over the next 10 years or so. Even many airlines with 787 on order does not have enough of them ordered to replace their 767 on a 1-on-1 basis. e.g. ANA still has 17 787s on order, but it still has 31 767 in fleet, and to make the replacement situation worse, some of the 787 on order are going to be replacing the older 777-200A, not the 767s. And you see the same for many other airlines:
JAL - 35 767s, 9 787s remained on order.
LATAM Chile - 18 767s, 12 787s remained on order
The 787 remains to be the best plane to replace 767 for these airlines, unless they want larger planes on some of the 767 routes.

And then there are A330-200s that will need to be replaced too. Airbus does not have a same-size aircraft to replace the A332. A359 is too large as a replacement. A339 does not have the range for the longest A332 route, and arguably it's less of a "new aircraft" than 787. It is possible that some airlines operating the A332 now may choose 787 as replacements, and start ordering in 2019.

A330-800 surely?

Too heavy and abysmal resale value. No leasing company will touch it.

DarkSnowyNight · Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:17 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Kindanew wrote:

A330-800 surely?

Too heavy and abysmal resale value. No leasing company will touch it.

What? No. Not even a little.
Leasing companies always make their money, and the resale depreciation is factored into that. This is why those payments exist. It doesn't matter to them if they can't place it at the end of the term. They'll part it out and still come out ahead.

You're not aware of this but even the leases covering the first A388s, with all their left handed issues, still made money off them.

Same story for the 318s. There are reasons why GECAS, Doric, Wells Fargo, etc pay very good money for people to figure these things out and bake them into the costs.

If an airline chooses not to agree to that, and chooses, say, an A339 (who's lease cost and operation cost differences probably still put it ahead of the 338 in overall value), that's on them. Doesn't mean for one second that a leasing company is somehow unwilling to bill for a 338.

seabosdca · Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:18 am

The question of A330 replacement will just grow in importance over the next 10-15 years. And there will be many eyes on TP and DL to see how the 339 performs. If a combination of performance and pricing can make the 339 competitive, Airbus has a shot at a decent minority of the A330 replacement market. If not, they will need to make the A350 drastically cheaper to buy, or you will be able to go down the list of A330ceo operators and pick out future large 787 customers.

TTailedTiger · Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:20 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Kindanew wrote:

A330-800 surely?

Too heavy and abysmal resale value. No leasing company will touch it.

What? No. Not even a little.
Leasing companies always make their money, and the resale depreciation is factored into that. This is why those payments exist. It doesn't matter to them if they can't place it at the end of the term. They'll part it out and still come out ahead.

You're not aware of this but even the leases covering the first A388s, with all their left handed issues, still made money off them.

Same story for the 318s. There are reasons why GECAS, Doric, Wells Fargo, etc pay very good money for people to figure these things out and bake them into the costs.

If an airline chooses not to agree to that, and chooses, say, an A339 (who's lease cost and operation cost differences probably still put it ahead of the 338 in overall value), that's on them. Doesn't mean for one second that a leasing company is somehow unwilling to bill for a 338.

Well then why aren't the leasing companies buying up A330neos if they are as profitable as you claim? Could it be that there is little to no market for them?

LAX772LR · Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:35 am

Planeflyer wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
80% of 330’s will be replaced by787

You seem to be quite educated on stuff that you completely made up.

The 330 to the 787 is like 767 was to the 330.

Uh, no, it's not.... seeing as unlike that situation, there was no updated 767 in the last decade to compete against a newer generation offering, as most 767s hit the high point of their replacement cycle. The 767 also faced the inability to carry LD3s in tandem, which the A330 could offer in order to more seamlessly mesh with extant fleets.

The same won't be the case.

LAX772LR · Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:40 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Could it be that there is little to no market for them?

Perhaps, though by far the more likely reason is that the replacement cycle for previous A330s has only barely begun, particularly on the lower end: the oldest A332s out there are only 21, and many of them were already replaced by A333CEOs.

It's going to be another half-decade or more before the A330CEO market gets into high gear, and that's where we'll truly see how the A333NEO performs against the 787 in terms of sales.

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