Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

dfdubflyer · Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:43 pm

Banner year for BNA. Cant wait to see what '19 brings for my home airport!

southwest1675 · Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:49 pm

16 million passengers in 2018?

SQ22 · Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:42 pm

Please continue to post your updates and to add your comments here. Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?p=20058533#p20058533

Fargo · Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:22 am

southwest1675 wrote:
16 million passengers in 2018?

Just was looking at the BNA Vision plans. Do you think they will hit 16 million this year?

If it does, Nashville will need to throw out their projections and revise then, cause they'll hit 23 million well before 2037. I would not be surprised if they pushed 20 million in the next 2 to 3 years, considering all the WN adds as of late. I'm sure they'll see more this year too. Amongst other things, it would not surprise me if WN's RIC flights were shifted from ATL to BNA. In fact, I believe that is inevitable. I also believe WN will add BNA-PDX soon to give east coast travelers another connection option as more connections are routed through BNA (though I probably shouldn't say that so I don't trigger a certain user.....)

And to think NK hasn't even come to town yet.

Question, is the new FIS facility BNA building going to have a recheck facility to accommodate connecting passengers?

southwest1675 · Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:42 am

Fargo wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
16 million passengers in 2018?

Just was looking at the BNA Vision plans. Do you think they will hit 16 million this year?

If it does, Nashville will need to throw out their projections and revise then, cause they'll hit 23 million well before 2037. I would not be surprised if they pushed 20 million in the next 2 to 3 years, considering all the WN adds as of late. I'm sure they'll see more this year too. Amongst other things, it would not surprise me if WN's RIC flights were shifted from ATL to BNA. In fact, I believe that is inevitable. I also believe WN will add BNA-PDX soon to give east coast travelers another connection option as more connections are routed through BNA (though I probably shouldn't say that so I don't trigger a certain user.....)

And to think NK hasn't even come to town yet.

Question, is the new FIS facility BNA building going to have a recheck facility to accommodate connecting passengers?

There’s a possibility we see WN’s ATL flights be shifted towards BNA.

AlexBrewster03 · Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:48 am

I would love a new Caribbean flight, or dare I say a second transatlantic flight. I doubt it will happen, but one can dream. Also doesn’t BNA want a flight to Tokyo? I thought I read that they were interested in that somewhere.

southwest1675 · Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:21 am

AlexBrewster03 wrote:
I would love a new Caribbean flight, or dare I say a second transatlantic flight. I doubt it will happen, but one can dream. Also doesn’t BNA want a flight to Tokyo? I thought I read that they were interested in that somewhere.

Talks of Asian service have apparently been rumbled before. It’s something we could see by the time the new IAB is complete in 2023.

As far as WN, I predict they’ll add SMF, BDL, and RIC from BNA this year.

dfdubflyer · Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:31 am

Is BNA’s WN’s largest station without international flights? I haven’t checked that but I feel like it must be among the larger domestic-only ones.

WN flying to CUN, DR, Bahamas seems like it would be pure cash with all the Southwest loyalists

LAX772LR · Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:43 am

AlexBrewster03 wrote:
or dare I say a second transatlantic flight. I doubt it will happen, but one can dream.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see DE add summer-seasonal service to BNA.

Very similar to the likes of MSY, PIT, PHX, and formerly SAN and AUS; all of which had BA+DE with the latter two having LH come in and drive DE out.

EvanWSFO · Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:37 pm

AlexBrewster03 wrote:
I would love a new Caribbean flight, or dare I say a second transatlantic flight. I doubt it will happen, but one can dream. Also doesn’t BNA want a flight to Tokyo? I thought I read that they were interested in that somewhere.

The CoC has been lobbying for several years to get a flight to Tokyo. IMO, it will eventually happen. Being the home of Nissan North American HQ plus a decent number of smaller Japanese companies that support Nissan helps. The consulate was moved from New Orleans to Nashville a few years ago. A 3x or 4x weekly flight by JL could work.

Still surprised that WN hasn't done more towards the Caribbean that the Saturday flight to CUN.

Cubsrule · Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:47 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
AlexBrewster03 wrote:
I would love a new Caribbean flight, or dare I say a second transatlantic flight. I doubt it will happen, but one can dream. Also doesn’t BNA want a flight to Tokyo? I thought I read that they were interested in that somewhere.

The CoC has been lobbying for several years to get a flight to Tokyo. IMO, it will eventually happen. Being the home of Nissan North American HQ plus a decent number of smaller Japanese companies that support Nissan helps. The consulate was moved from New Orleans to Nashville a few years ago. A 3x or 4x weekly flight by JL could work.

Still surprised that WN hasn't done more towards the Caribbean that the Saturday flight to CUN.

The problem with Japan is that no one is really doing sub-daily p2p stuff to Japan like BA and DL are to Europe. It’s partially the difficult economics of that model in general because of the longer flights and ridiculous price completion to China, I think. I don’t think it really has anything to do with something specific to Nashville other than that Nashville is a long way from Japan.

Jshank83 · Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:11 pm

dfdubflyer wrote:
Is BNA’s WN’s largest station without international flights? I haven’t checked that but I feel like it must be among the larger domestic-only ones.

WN flying to CUN, DR, Bahamas seems like it would be pure cash with all the Southwest loyalists

WN flies once a week seasonally to CUN. I’m pretty sure PHX doesn’t have any intl on WN though. Which surprises me.

EvanWSFO · Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
AlexBrewster03 wrote:
I would love a new Caribbean flight, or dare I say a second transatlantic flight. I doubt it will happen, but one can dream. Also doesn’t BNA want a flight to Tokyo? I thought I read that they were interested in that somewhere.

The CoC has been lobbying for several years to get a flight to Tokyo. IMO, it will eventually happen. Being the home of Nissan North American HQ plus a decent number of smaller Japanese companies that support Nissan helps. The consulate was moved from New Orleans to Nashville a few years ago. A 3x or 4x weekly flight by JL could work.

Still surprised that WN hasn't done more towards the Caribbean that the Saturday flight to CUN.

The problem with Japan is that no one is really doing sub-daily p2p stuff to Japan like BA and DL are to Europe. It’s partially the difficult economics of that model in general because of the longer flights and ridiculous price completion to China, I think. I don’t think it really has anything to do with something specific to Nashville other than that Nashville is a long way from Japan.

I would agree that routes to Japan are rarely less than daily, but I still think it could be doable on a 788. Then again, BNA still hasn't gotten the long desired flight to PDX, so I guess there are priorities... :bouncy:

southwest1675 · Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:02 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:

The CoC has been lobbying for several years to get a flight to Tokyo. IMO, it will eventually happen. Being the home of Nissan North American HQ plus a decent number of smaller Japanese companies that support Nissan helps. The consulate was moved from New Orleans to Nashville a few years ago. A 3x or 4x weekly flight by JL could work.

Still surprised that WN hasn't done more towards the Caribbean that the Saturday flight to CUN.

The problem with Japan is that no one is really doing sub-daily p2p stuff to Japan like BA and DL are to Europe. It’s partially the difficult economics of that model in general because of the longer flights and ridiculous price completion to China, I think. I don’t think it really has anything to do with something specific to Nashville other than that Nashville is a long way from Japan.

I would agree that routes to Japan are rarely less than daily, but I still think it could be doable on a 788. Then again, BNA still hasn't gotten the long desired flight to PDX, so I guess there are priorities...

The issue with PDX is that WN has been regressing in Portland, and AS has fleet utilization problems apparently. I would still think PDX happens in 2019.

Fargo · Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:27 pm

Question. As flights increase, will BNA replace ATL as a WN operating base? According to Wikipedia, ATL listed with the likes of MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, DAL, etc, as an operating base while BNA is only listed as a focus city.

southwest1675 · Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:33 pm

Fargo wrote:
Question. As flights increase, will BNA replace ATL as a WN operating base? According to Wikipedia, ATL listed with the likes of MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, DAL, etc, as an operating base while BNA is only listed as a focus city.

A operating base has been rumored for years. It very much could happen. Especially if WN really does start shifting ATL flights to Nashville.

Fargo · Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:09 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Question. As flights increase, will BNA replace ATL as a WN operating base? According to Wikipedia, ATL listed with the likes of MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, DAL, etc, as an operating base while BNA is only listed as a focus city.

A operating base has been rumored for years. It very much could happen. Especially if WN really does start shifting ATL flights to Nashville.

Why isn't it already? Is it because of ATL's status as a former FL hub?

It would make more sense to focus on BNA as it is a bigger market and they are likely bleeding money to DL in ATL. I would cut ATL down to O&D flying only and move the cut flights to BNA. IMO, no reason BNA can't someday be among the likes of MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, PHX, DAL, HOU, OAK, etc.

Cubsrule · Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:15 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Question. As flights increase, will BNA replace ATL as a WN operating base? According to Wikipedia, ATL listed with the likes of MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, DAL, etc, as an operating base while BNA is only listed as a focus city.

A operating base has been rumored for years. It very much could happen. Especially if WN really does start shifting ATL flights to Nashville.

I'd argue the opposite: shrinking ATL hurts the case for a BNA base because it leads to excess crews in the region. ATL-BNA is a really easy way to get ATL crews into the system (I have not yet been on a ATL-BNA flight with a crew based somwehere other than ATL).

ytib · Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:23 pm

The following cities are flight attendant bases (Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Las Vegas, Orlando, Oakland and Phoenix), which are also the same for the pilot bases. LAX was added in Q4 of last year. In terms of ATL, with the large number of former AirTran flight attendants and pilots don't expect ATL to just get moved as a base.

Fargo · Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:46 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Question. As flights increase, will BNA replace ATL as a WN operating base? According to Wikipedia, ATL listed with the likes of MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, DAL, etc, as an operating base while BNA is only listed as a focus city.

A operating base has been rumored for years. It very much could happen. Especially if WN really does start shifting ATL flights to Nashville.

I'd argue the opposite: shrinking ATL hurts the case for a BNA base because it leads to excess crews in the region. ATL-BNA is a really easy way to get ATL crews into the system (I have not yet been on a ATL-BNA flight with a crew based somwehere other than ATL).

My thought here was ATL's operating base would move to Nashville if they shift more flights from ATL to BNA.

southwest1675 · Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:21 pm

Air Service announcement tomorrow at 9am. My guess is Spirit or G4 additions.

tys777 · Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:29 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Air Service announcement tomorrow at 9am. My guess is Spirit or G4 additions.

My guess is Spirit or a decent Fronteir expansion. SAT has an announcement for a new airline at the same time and I'm guessing they are related.

FA9295 · Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:02 pm

I would guess Spirit as well. As for destinations, I'm not too familiar with the Nashville market, so IDK.

Still waiting on PDX..... :roll:

pdt2f · Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:56 pm

Their twitter post about it says 3 destinations, two of them new to BNA. I’d have to say G4. NK would merit one of those “new airline” announcements, and odds are F9 would be offering cheaper service to a pre-served location. Probably like Orlando-Sanford, Phoenix-Mesa, and maybe like Vegas or something with G4.

southwest1675 · Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:58 pm

I still haven't ruled out a new airline based on the fact that they made Contour/Boutqiue move their counter to a makeshift desk just a few weeks ago.

bnatraveler · Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:03 am

southwest1675 wrote:
I still haven't ruled out a new airline based on the fact that they made Contour/Boutqiue move their counter to a makeshift desk just a few weeks ago.

That move is the first of a few in support of the new Grand Ole Lobby project. AA/BA/DL are going to have to move too....and that's going to be a mess.

Fargo · Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:11 am

BNA is not a focus city for DL, is it? Because we have someone on here that is insisting it is.

pdt2f · Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:02 am

Fargo wrote:
BNA is not a focus city for DL, is it? Because we have someone on here that is insisting it is.

No it isn’t. What thread?

Fargo · Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:22 am

pdt2f wrote:
Fargo wrote:
BNA is not a focus city for DL, is it? Because we have someone on here that is insisting it is.

No it isn’t. What thread?

The infamous Detroit thread.....

pdt2f · Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:51 am

Fargo wrote:
pdt2f wrote:
Fargo wrote:
BNA is not a focus city for DL, is it? Because we have someone on here that is insisting it is.

No it isn’t. What thread?

The infamous Detroit thread.....

I just read through it. Dude was quoting the headline of an article he obviously didn’t read regarding charitable giving in 2016. We actually have one fewer destination this year with DL than we did last year, after losing the CVG flight.

AVLAirlineFreq · Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:18 pm

Sun Country to PVD, PDX, and LAX: https://twitter.com/Fly_Nashville/statu ... 61/photo/1

dafunk10 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:52 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Sun Country to PVD, PDX, and LAX: https://twitter.com/Fly_Nashville/statu ... 61/photo/1

Surprised Sun Country is the first to offer PDX...seems like a missed opportunity for WN, AS or even DL (although not sure how much it moves the needle for the business community)

tys777 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:09 pm

If my math is correct (it might not be) that give BNA 9 destinations on SY (some seasonal). Looks like BNA might be turning into a nice little focus city for SY, or at least has the potential for it.

Lexy · Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:17 pm

tys777 wrote:
If my math is correct (it might not be) that give BNA 9 destinations on SY (some seasonal). Looks like BNA might be turning into a nice little focus city for SY, or at least has the potential for it.

Yeah, I’m a little surprised by that to be honest.

AviationGeek78 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:43 pm

If you look closely most of the other SY routes drop off after April. MSY, MCO, RSW do not show available after April. I did not check other Florida routes. So far only MSP has shown to not be seasonal from a cursory glance.

Lexy · Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:54 pm

Fargo wrote:
BNA is not a focus city for DL, is it? Because we have someone on here that is insisting it is.

No, but it's one of the largest outstations in the network and is an unofficial "focus" of 2019 for DL. It's also the preferred diversion base for ATL bound international flights.

dafunk10 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:18 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
16 million passengers in 2018?

They finally updated data for Nov. 1,409,968 passengers for the month, up 15.1% over PY. 14,688,075 Nov 2018 YTD.

I’d say 16M will be surpassed comfortably.

Lexy · Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:22 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
16 million passengers in 2018?

They finally updated data for Nov. 1,409,968 passengers for the month, up 15.1% over PY. 14,688,075 Nov 2018 YTD.

I’d say 16M will be surpassed comfortably.

That's nuts. Just freaking nuts when you really look at it. As someone who works below wing, I can say it's getting harder and harder to non-rev out of here.

pdt2f · Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:48 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
16 million passengers in 2018?

They finally updated data for Nov. 1,409,968 passengers for the month, up 15.1% over PY. 14,688,075 Nov 2018 YTD.

I’d say 16M will be surpassed comfortably.

Interestingly load factors are actually down like 13% from last November. 72.9 vs 86.4.

southwest1675 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:08 pm

I still think the MNAA didn’t expect the airport to explode with this much growth. I remember when the end of Concourse B was deserted, and C had gates open for use.

dafunk10 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:21 pm

pdt2f wrote:
dafunk10 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
16 million passengers in 2018?

They finally updated data for Nov. 1,409,968 passengers for the month, up 15.1% over PY. 14,688,075 Nov 2018 YTD.

I’d say 16M will be surpassed comfortably.

Interestingly load factors are actually down like 13% from last November. 72.9 vs 86.4.

not surprising, imo....a lot of new domestic routes ramping up capacity....then you have routes like WN's ATL routes that are running 50-55% capacity

dafunk10 · Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:21 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
I still think the MNAA didn’t expect the airport to explode with this much growth. I remember when the end of Concourse B was deserted, and C had gates open for use.

BNA vision is going to be outdated as soon as its completed

pdt2f · Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:53 pm

Just dummy booked one of Sun Country’s LAX flight, it’s a 9:25 PM departure from BNA (11:55 LAX arrival) on a Monday and a red eye back from LAX on a Friday. Cheap, but terrible times. I didn’t try any other times, I don’t have the patience for Sun Country’s terrible mobile website.

EvanWSFO · Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:45 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
I still think the MNAA didn’t expect the airport to explode with this much growth. I remember when the end of Concourse B was deserted, and C had gates open for use.

BNA vision is going to be outdated as soon as its completed

I think we all concluded this a long time ago.

Fargo · Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:42 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
dafunk10 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
I still think the MNAA didn’t expect the airport to explode with this much growth. I remember when the end of Concourse B was deserted, and C had gates open for use.

BNA vision is going to be outdated as soon as its completed

I think we all concluded this a long time ago.

It will be interesting to see what BNA comes up with in the master plan, which I guess they are in the process of updating. One thing is for sure, they'll need to build more gates after the BNA Vision work is completed, the airport will have around 50 and will need closer to 60-65.

Does anyone know if the new IAB facility will have a recheck facility for connecting passengers? I can't imagine there will be many, but if WN keeps increasing, they may add an international destination or two which may require connections in some cases.

pdt2f · Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:35 am

Does anyone know how many total daily flights BNA will have this summer?

UALFAson · Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:57 am

Can we make a New Year's resolution NOT to make literally thousands of posts like we did last year speculating/complaining about:

--how BNA Vision didn't plan for enough growth
--when/why WN is starting service to PDX
--when we will get a NRT or Asia nonstop
--why doesn't UA open up a SE hub at BNA

I live here in Nashville and am a frequent flyer out of BNA and appreciate learning factual information about developments at the airport. But it got frustratingly difficult to find that kind of info last year after the same people posted the same things speculating about the same topics over and over. I'm not trying to be rude, but you have made your points and continually complaining is not going to make any of those things happen.

Thank you for reading.

EvanWSFO · Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:55 am

UALFAson wrote:
Can we make a New Year's resolution NOT to make literally thousands of posts like we did last year speculating/complaining about:

--how BNA Vision didn't plan for enough growth
--when/why WN is starting service to PDX
--when we will get a NRT or Asia nonstop
--why doesn't UA open up a SE hub at BNA

I live here in Nashville and am a frequent flyer out of BNA and appreciate learning factual information about developments at the airport. But it got frustratingly difficult to find that kind of info last year after the same people posted the same things speculating about the same topics over and over. I'm not trying to be rude, but you have made your points and continually complaining is not going to make any of those things happen.

Thank you for reading.

I appreciate what you are saying, but this site thrives on speculation. I've read plenty of other cities threads, same thing. Without those, there might be 20 threads online. You're just going to have to live with it.

VS4ever · Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:29 am

I apologize if this is old news in your circles, but just came across this release on airline route.net
BA is upping to daily on 4/19 and is moving up to the 789 with F from 3/31 for the summer season at least.
Nicely done..

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-08jan19/

Lexy · Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:14 am

dafunk10 wrote:
pdt2f wrote:
dafunk10 wrote:

They finally updated data for Nov. 1,409,968 passengers for the month, up 15.1% over PY. 14,688,075 Nov 2018 YTD.

I’d say 16M will be surpassed comfortably.

Interestingly load factors are actually down like 13% from last November. 72.9 vs 86.4.

not surprising, imo....a lot of new domestic routes ramping up capacity....then you have routes like WN's ATL routes that are running 50-55% capacity

Don’t forget good gas prices.

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