Please continue from last year's thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1384993

Happy 2019 everyone.
GK addressed his employees in his weekly update saying they plan on having ETOPS finished by the end of January pending the government shutdown.

If they can achieve this it should make the Hawaii launch date sometime around the end of February or first week of March.

New market predictions for summer 2019
BDL-BNA, RIC-BNA and SMF-BNA.

Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

Happy 2019 everyone.
GK addressed his employees in his weekly update saying they plan on having ETOPS finished by the end of January pending the government shutdown.

If they can achieve this it should make the Hawaii launch date sometime around the end of February or first week of March.

New market predictions for summer 2019
BDL-BNA, RIC-BNA and SMF-BNA.

Flyguy

They don't usually add many new markets backfilling after they already released the schedule do they? Although I guess August is technically still summer, I think of June/July release as the summer update. But if you mean the August update then nevermind.

A published summary of what has been reported here for Hawaii

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/new ... -oORdMdlPU

smokeybandit wrote:

A published summary of what has been reported here for Hawaii

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/new ... -oORdMdlPU

Thanks for the update.
All departments were given revision updates today to Include ETOPS into the operations manuals.
Getting closer.

Flyguy

I see a lot more additions at BNA this year. They are going to try to turn it into a southeastern BWI.
FLL will see more cutbacks.
STL will probably see minimal growth.
more growth in west coast to combat AS. Will be interesting to see what happens here. SAN/SJC are obviously the hot spots.

One thing to keep in mind is that WN will be suffering from the fuel hedging in Q1/Q2. That will hamper their results.

tphuang wrote:

I see a lot more additions at BNA this year. They are going to try to turn it into a southeastern BWI.

Then they need to make OKC a daily frequency, not this "Sunday only" crap they keep doing to us...same goes with MCO

tphuang wrote:

I see a lot more additions at BNA this year. They are going to try to turn it into a southeastern BWI.
FLL will see more cutbacks.
STL will probably see minimal growth.
more growth in west coast to combat AS. Will be interesting to see what happens here. SAN/SJC are obviously the hot spots.

One thing to keep in mind is that WN will be suffering from the fuel hedging in Q1/Q2. That will hamper their results.

How much more room does BNA have to grow with their gate constraints? I know in the last year they have added a ton. Something like 125 a day now next summer. Not sure how many gates they have there and how many they can realistically push thru there?

Not talking about what all destination wise they can add. Just to what number a day is realistic.

Jshank83 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I see a lot more additions at BNA this year. They are going to try to turn it into a southeastern BWI.
FLL will see more cutbacks.
STL will probably see minimal growth.
more growth in west coast to combat AS. Will be interesting to see what happens here. SAN/SJC are obviously the hot spots.

One thing to keep in mind is that WN will be suffering from the fuel hedging in Q1/Q2. That will hamper their results.

How much more room does BNA have to grow with their gate constraints? I know in the last year they have added a ton. Something like 125 a day now next summer. Not sure how many gates they have there and how many they can realistically push thru there?

Not talking about what all destination wise they can add. Just to what number a day is realistic.

Nashville will have 133 next summer. They currently have 14 gates, and are supposed to pick up another 6 by 2020. There's also been rumors that they'll take a gate away from AA in a few months. I was always told WN could turn 10 flights a day on just one gate. So I guess 140 daily departures.

southwest1675 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I see a lot more additions at BNA this year. They are going to try to turn it into a southeastern BWI.
FLL will see more cutbacks.
STL will probably see minimal growth.
more growth in west coast to combat AS. Will be interesting to see what happens here. SAN/SJC are obviously the hot spots.

One thing to keep in mind is that WN will be suffering from the fuel hedging in Q1/Q2. That will hamper their results.

How much more room does BNA have to grow with their gate constraints? I know in the last year they have added a ton. Something like 125 a day now next summer. Not sure how many gates they have there and how many they can realistically push thru there?

Not talking about what all destination wise they can add. Just to what number a day is realistic.

Nashville will have 133 next summer. They currently have 14 gates, and are supposed to pick up another 6 by 2020. There's also been rumors that they'll take a gate away from AA in a few months. I was always told WN could turn 10 flights a day on just one gate. So I guess 140 daily departures.

So about maxed out for now then. 7 away. Are more gates opening up in 2020 or is someone losing gates?

Jshank83 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

How much more room does BNA have to grow with their gate constraints? I know in the last year they have added a ton. Something like 125 a day now next summer. Not sure how many gates they have there and how many they can realistically push thru there?

Not talking about what all destination wise they can add. Just to what number a day is realistic.

Nashville will have 133 next summer. They currently have 14 gates, and are supposed to pick up another 6 by 2020. There's also been rumors that they'll take a gate away from AA in a few months. I was always told WN could turn 10 flights a day on just one gate. So I guess 140 daily departures.

So about maxed out for now then. 7 away. Are more gates opening up in 2020 or is someone losing gates?

BNA is going under an expansion that is changing the airport completely by 2023. A new concourse is being added right next to Southwest's operation.

http://bnavisionnashville.com/site/web/ ... 00x560.jpg

southwest1675 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Nashville will have 133 next summer. They currently have 14 gates, and are supposed to pick up another 6 by 2020. There's also been rumors that they'll take a gate away from AA in a few months. I was always told WN could turn 10 flights a day on just one gate. So I guess 140 daily departures.

So about maxed out for now then. 7 away. Are more gates opening up in 2020 or is someone losing gates?

BNA is going under an expansion that is changing the airport completely by 2023. A new concourse is being added right next to Southwest's operation.

http://bnavisionnashville.com/site/web/ ... 00x560.jpg

I knew that. I just knew it was 2023 and I thought I had seen in the BNA thread that the airport was losing gates for a bit. Before it finally is all ready. Is here a timeline for when gates are coming online?

Jshank83 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

So about maxed out for now then. 7 away. Are more gates opening up in 2020 or is someone losing gates?

BNA is going under an expansion that is changing the airport completely by 2023. A new concourse is being added right next to Southwest's operation.

http://bnavisionnashville.com/site/web/ ... 00x560.jpg

I knew that. I just knew it was 2023 and I thought I had seen in the BNA thread that the airport was losing gates for a bit. Before it finally is all ready. Is here a timeline for when gates are coming online?

The gates lost affect AA and DL. No clue when the gates will come online, they broke ground on the new concourse back in June.

southwest1675 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

BNA is going under an expansion that is changing the airport completely by 2023. A new concourse is being added right next to Southwest's operation.

http://bnavisionnashville.com/site/web/ ... 00x560.jpg

I knew that. I just knew it was 2023 and I thought I had seen in the BNA thread that the airport was losing gates for a bit. Before it finally is all ready. Is here a timeline for when gates are coming online?

The gates lost affect AA and DL. No clue when the gates will come online, they broke ground on the new concourse back in June.

Oh. I thought the 6 more gates you said WN was getting by next year were from new gates coming online. I did think there were any open gates right now. Surprised AA would let WN have one of their gates if they are losing gates during construction. Anyway, not a big deal. I can just wait to see how it plays out.

tphuang wrote:

FLL will see more cutbacks

There are actually a few more nonstop routes that could be added by WN at FLL such as CVG-FLL, CLE-FLL, SDF-FLL, and OMA-FLL. B6 and NK do not serve CVG, SDF, and OMA, and WN has also previously said that it was considering adding CLE-FLL nonstop service, even though CLE already has nonstop service to FLL on UA, B6, and NK. OMA also doesn't currently have any nonstop service to FLL.

WN could also add OAK-FLL nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the San Francisco Bay area. OAK currently lacks nonstop service to FLL, whereas SFO already has nonstop service to FLL on UA, B6, and AS. There are also some travelers in the San Francisco Bay area who prefer to fly on WN over B6 or AS.

Even though SAN already has nonstop service to FLL on B6, WN could add SAN-FLL nonstop service since many of the travelers in Greater San Diego prefer to fly on WN over B6. WN adding SAN-FLL nonstop service would also allow WN to defend against possible adds by AS or NK on the SAN-FLL route.

ROC also currently lacks nonstop service to FLL and MIA, and WN could add ROC-FLL nonstop service if B6 doesn't add ROC-FLL nonstop service.

jplatts wrote:

tphuang wrote:

FLL will see more cutbacks

There are actually a few more nonstop routes that could be added by WN at FLL such as CVG-FLL, CLE-FLL, SDF-FLL, and OMA-FLL. B6 and NK do not serve CVG, SDF, and OMA, and WN has also previously said that it was considering adding CLE-FLL nonstop service, even though CLE already has nonstop service to FLL on UA, B6, and NK. OMA also doesn't currently have any nonstop service to FLL.

WN could also add OAK-FLL nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the San Francisco Bay area. OAK currently lacks nonstop service to FLL, whereas SFO already has nonstop service to FLL on UA, B6, and AS. There are also some travelers in the San Francisco Bay area who prefer to fly on WN over B6 or AS.

Even though SAN already has nonstop service to FLL on B6, WN could add SAN-FLL nonstop service since many of the travelers in Greater San Diego prefer to fly on WN over B6. WN adding SAN-FLL nonstop service would also allow WN to defend against possible adds by AS or NK on the SAN-FLL route.

ROC also currently lacks nonstop service to FLL and MIA, and WN could add ROC-FLL nonstop service if B6 doesn't add ROC-FLL nonstop service.

If I had a nickel for every route you've suggested WN **could** add...

I'm thinking Midway will plateau. It already did in 2018, with the loss of Flint and addition of Burbank and Panama City. Well, it will either plateau or grow minimally, since there is not that much room.

I think BWI will remain the same as well. STL will probably see two or three destinations added. Leading the charge, I believe, will be BNA.

maps4ltd wrote:

I'm thinking Midway will plateau. It already did in 2018, with the loss of Flint and addition of Burbank and Panama City. Well, it will either plateau or grow minimally, since there is not that much room.

Here are the changes in frequencies at MDW on WN in Summer 2019 compared to Summer 2017:
MDW-AUS 4 (+1)
MDW-BOI 0 (-1)
MDW-BOS 5 (-1)
MDW-BUF 3 (-1)
MDW-BUR 2 (+2)
MDW-CHS 3 (+1)
MDW-CLE 5 (-2)
MDW-CMH 6 (-1)
MDW-FNT 0 (-3)
MDW-HOU 6 (-1)
MDW-IND 1 (-1)
MDW-MCI 8 (-1)
MDW-SDF 4 (-1)
MDW-MSY 4 (+1)
MDW-ORF 1 (-1)
MDW-OMA 5 (-1)
MDW-SNA 0 (-1)
MDW-MCO 8 (-1)
MDW-PDX 2 (-1)
MDW-SAN 5 (+1)
MDW-SFO 2 (-1)
MDW-SJC 2 (+1)
MDW-SEA 4 (-1)
MDW-GEG 0 (-1)

WN will only be operating 251 daily departures out of MDW in Summer 2019 compared to 265 daily departures out of MDW in Summer 2017.

While there are some adds that could be made by WN at MDW such as the addition of MDW-RIC nonstop service or increased nonstop service to JAX and OKC from MDW, WN's MDW operation will likely be smaller than it was in Summer 2017.

Any plans for WN to add the ability to do multi city itinerary booking? I’d imagine that this would be handy with Hawaii island hopping.

How is Southwest doing with their BNA-ATL flights?

When is the next schedule extention?

tomaheath wrote:

Any plans for WN to add the ability to do multi city itinerary booking? I’d imagine that this would be handy with Hawaii island hopping.

Given that WN has never priced a round trip any differently than two one ways, they don’t need it.

WaywardMemphian wrote:

When is the next schedule extention?

February 7 opens the schedule thru Sept. 2

I've still heard nothing definitive but the rumors persist that WN will be almost doubling their number of gates at SAN this year (1st half) while improving ground ops efficiency. Even with the addition (hopefully) of some westbound flights (to Hawaii!) there should still be plenty of room for additional growth to the rest of the lower 48!

My count as of the last schedule extension (effective June 9) has SAN with 130 daily departures -- an increase of 15 flights over June 2018. This of course doesn't include any HI flights.) The greatest frequency out of SAN will be to SJC with 16 departures! (SAN-SMF isn't far behind with 15 daily r/t!) Wow! Talk about a battle with AS; WN is pulling out all the stops.

WN will fly to 36 destinations from SAN with the addition of OMA and ORF in June. Four of our nonstop destinations are currently seasonal, 3 are served less than daily, and we have 2 int'l routes (to Mexico.) To the best of my recollection, since WN began serving SAN in 1982, we have seen only 1 destination dropped that has not subsequently returned - IAD.

bb

Hello, can someone explain WN's strategy at LGB? I don't see why they are becoming such a large presence at LGB if B6 is failing pretty miserably. I see that they're trying to secure the SoCal market, but why attempt at a failing market to compete with JetBlue, if they're already "ditching"? To me, it seems like a waste of resources unless I'm missing something here.

MDGLongBeach wrote:

Hello, can someone explain WN's strategy at LGB? I don't see why they are becoming such a large presence at LGB if B6 is failing pretty miserably. I see that they're trying to secure the SoCal market, but why attempt at a failing market to compete with JetBlue, if they're already "ditching"? To me, it seems like a waste of resources unless I'm missing something here.

B6 has no hubs west of JFK, so historically much of B6's LGB flying has to be 100 percent O&D. B6 has never been competitive for something like MSP-LGB. WN can leverage its western hubs, which also are in enormous O&D markets to Southern California. Most of what WN is trying is more like AA PHX-LGB or DL SLC-LGB than anything B6 has ever done. The arguable exception to that is some of the northern California flying, but WN is far stronger than B6 in SMF and the Bay Area.

MDGLongBeach wrote:

Hello, can someone explain WN's strategy at LGB? I don't see why they are becoming such a large presence at LGB if B6 is failing pretty miserably. I see that they're trying to secure the SoCal market, but why attempt at a failing market to compete with JetBlue, if they're already "ditching"? To me, it seems like a waste of resources unless I'm missing something here.

WN has had to reduce the number of flights out of SNA in order to comply with slot restrictions and capacity restrictions that are in effect at SNA. WN also didn't have enough room at LAX to add more flights while Terminal 1 at LAX was being renovated, but WN now has more room to add flights out of LAX with the re-opening of Terminal 1 at LAX.

Even though MDW is WN's largest focus city, WN is actually bigger by number of domestic passengers per year in Greater Los Angeles than in every other market except for the Baltimore/DC market.

WN is also able to offer connections to destinations not served by B6 from LGB through OAK, SJC, SMF, LAS, and DEN.

If WN is able to get more slots at LGB, WN is likely to add LGB-PHX nonstop service since (a) PHX is one of the largest WN focus cities and (b) LGB is the only WN destination in California that doesn't already have nonstop service to PHX on WN.

MDGLongBeach wrote:

Hello, can someone explain WN's strategy at LGB? I don't see why they are becoming such a large presence at LGB if B6 is failing pretty miserably. I see that they're trying to secure the SoCal market, but why attempt at a failing market to compete with JetBlue, if they're already "ditching"? To me, it seems like a waste of resources unless I'm missing something here.

At the time WN ventured into LGB it was being forced to give up 23 slots at SNA due to Allotment rules. LGB is a successfull way of backfilling the SNA market.
Plus WN smells the Blood in the water at LGB from JetBlue. While it seems very redundant to serve LGB in addition to SNA,LAX,BUR,ONT it's also keeps out a ULCC like Spirit,F9,Allegiant or Sun Country from invading WN strongest SoCal market.

Flyguy

500+ 737-700s. Anyone suspect when they will begin shaving these out of their fleet? Their 737 MAX 7 orders were delayed, so it leaves me wondering.

Also, will special liveries carry over to 737 MAX 7's or any 737-800s/737-MAX 8s?

Veigar wrote:

500+ 737-700s. Anyone suspect when they will begin shaving these out of their fleet? Their 737 MAX 7 orders were delayed, so it leaves me wondering.

Also, will special liveries carry over to 737 MAX 7's or any 737-800s/737-MAX 8s?

WN is reevaluating it's planned 700 retirement schedule. It has said in the past it may start the retirement of the 700's in 2019. But they have the flexibility to push retirements until 2025 if needed for growth opportunities.
In the upcoming quarterly conference call They will hopefully shead some guidance on the retirement plan and pending Hawaii schedule.
Flyguy

Just heard Mike V. Told everyone via a company update that ETOPS certification is on hold until the government shutdown is over.

Flyguy

tomaheath wrote:

Any plans for WN to add the ability to do multi city itinerary booking? I’d imagine that this would be handy with Hawaii island hopping.

Other than a limited one-way option (ie. PIT-MDW-MSP), I don't know if their system is capable of that option.

WN announced it's pulling out of MEX. but in a spin adding 25 more planes to 2019.

Flyguy

MEX is a rough market right now. Still surprised they are pulling out completely. Seems like they are going to pour all the resources into entering HI market this year. Bad news for HA and AS.

wnflyguy wrote:

WN announced it's pulling out of MEX. but in a spin adding 25 more planes to 2019.

Flyguy

There's nothing new on the aircraft front. The net gain of 25 planes was already disclosed last year. The pullout of MEX is news though. Not a good sign IMO if WN expects to expand into Central and South American routes if it can’t make MEX work out of HOU.

Not a surprise about MEX. I am amazed it lasted this long ,really.

SWADawg wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

WN announced it's pulling out of MEX. but in a spin adding 25 more planes to 2019.

Flyguy

There's nothing new on the aircraft front. The net gain of 25 planes was already disclosed last year. The pullout of MEX is news though. Not a good sign IMO if WN expects to expand into Central and South American routes if it can’t make MEX work out of HOU.

I'm baffled why they spent 500 million on OneRes when they STILL can't sale tickets in the International destinations.
With the further impact of F9 and NK pulling revenue away from long held WN strong holds and the on going battle with AS I see WN putting the potential of adding 50 international destinations on hold to increase domestic flights from now until 2025.

Flyguy

wnflyguy wrote:

MDGLongBeach wrote:

Hello, can someone explain WN's strategy at LGB? I don't see why they are becoming such a large presence at LGB if B6 is failing pretty miserably. I see that they're trying to secure the SoCal market, but why attempt at a failing market to compete with JetBlue, if they're already "ditching"? To me, it seems like a waste of resources unless I'm missing something here.

At the time WN ventured into LGB it was being forced to give up 23 slots at SNA due to Allotment rules. LGB is a successfull way of backfilling the SNA market.
Plus WN smells the Blood in the water at LGB from JetBlue. While it seems very redundant to serve LGB in addition to SNA,LAX,BUR,ONT it's also keeps out a ULCC like Spirit,F9,Allegiant or Sun Country from invading WN strongest SoCal market.

Flyguy

I wouldn't say LGB is redundant.

LGB is it's own separate market, and WN wants to be the strongest airline in SoCal (and all of California, for that matter). I really hope that they can gain back some SNA slots in the future and resume PDX-SNA. Alaska needs some strong competition on that route...

wnflyguy wrote:

WN announced it's pulling out of MEX. but in a spin adding 25 more planes to 2019.

Flyguy

Wow... MEX seems to be struggling for lots of airlines! AS and WN pulling out, UA reducing a whole bunch of flights there, and AeroMexico axing routes like BOS, IAD, and PDX.

I have a question for anyone familiar with inside information with the Southwest route network...

How come the seasonal PDX-BWI flight was reduced to just Sat/Sun only? Last year it operated on a daily basis. I understand that there is competition from Alaska on this route, but loads on the flight last year were very solid despite the competition from Alaska. Southwest also has the advantage that BWI connects to a lot of other destinations that they fly to, whereas Alaska doesn't really have that asset going for them. Very puzzling (and quite disappointing) to me...

wnflyguy wrote:

Just heard Mike V. Told everyone via a company update that ETOPS certification is on hold until the government shutdown is over.

Flyguy

Is this still the case even after the FAA inspectors where ordered back to work?

It really is a shame that MEX didn't work out for WN. I was amazed by their foresight to quickly grab scarce MEX slots - long before HOU and for that matter WN itself had international capabilities. It certainly had to be ugly running FL (AirTran) metal on the SAT/SNA-MEX routes, but eventually those routes shifted to WN metal and then ended so that the MEX slots could be used for HOU-MEX (once Hobby gained the ability to handle international flights). The AM/DL antitrust proceedings made additional MEX slots available, giving WN the ability to increase frequency on the HOU-MEX route to a much more business traveler friendly 4x daily schedule while also providing WN an opportunity to start daily FLL-MEX and LAX-MEX services. When WN only took 2 of the 4 MEX "remedy" slots awarded to it in 2017, increasing HOU-MEX frequency but passing on the opportunity to start FLL/LAX-MEX, I figured things weren't going well. The writing was really on the wall when WN recently reduced HOU-MEX to 2x daily. I figured they weren't getting business travelers (AM and UA no doubt provided stiff competition for them) but perhaps had enough loyal leisure and VFR travelers for just 2 daily flights to the Mexican capital from a major "hub". Apparently even that wasn't the case, though. If MEX didn't work out, we can probably forget about WN trying stuff like BOG or GUA anytime soon. No wonder they're so focused on Hawaii!

WN732 wrote:

Listening to the earnings call this morning:

-WN will begin to retire early -700's this year. Expects fuel efficiency to improve 1.5%-2% YOY as older jets are replaced.
-WN expects Hawaii in Second Quarter. Sited goverment shutdown in further delaying launch.
-WN notes revenue dropped slightly due to costs of "operating" Hawaii airports without any flights.

Did they really say that early 700’s are going to be retired this year or did they say that they could or could not be retired based on growth required?

KMCOFlyer wrote:

wnflyguy wrote:

Just heard Mike V. Told everyone via a company update that ETOPS certification is on hold until the government shutdown is over.

Flyguy

Is this still the case even after the FAA inspectors where ordered back to work?

Inspectors are back to work, not those in charge of approving ETOPS - that is a different group within the FAA.

n471wn wrote:

WN732 wrote:

Listening to the earnings call this morning:

-WN will begin to retire early -700's this year. Expects fuel efficiency to improve 1.5%-2% YOY as older jets are replaced.
-WN expects Hawaii in Second Quarter. Sited goverment shutdown in further delaying launch.
-WN notes revenue dropped slightly due to costs of "operating" Hawaii airports without any flights.

Did they really say that early 700’s are going to be retired this year or did they say that they could or could not be retired based on growth required?

According to to the earnings call and quarterly report, it looks like WN might be retiring around 19 frames this year. They are taking delivery of 44 new aircraft in 2019, but the net fleet growth will be 25. I would imagine that most of the 25 frame growth will be dedicated to Hawaii flying once ETOPS gets approved.

http://investors.southwest.com/news-and ... -113106440

Looks like the next schedule extension will be this Thursday, Jan. 31, moved up from Feb. 7th. It was slated to open up through 9/2 but has been changed to open through 10/1 now.

SteveXC500 wrote:

Looks like the next schedule extension will be this Thursday, Jan. 31, moved up from Feb. 7th. It was slated to open up through 9/2 but has been changed to open through 10/1 now.

Good catch, I wonder why they moved it up....

WN732 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

SteveXC500 wrote:

Looks like the next schedule extension will be this Thursday, Jan. 31, moved up from Feb. 7th. It was slated to open up through 9/2 but has been changed to open through 10/1 now.

Good catch, I wonder why they moved it up....

Perhaps they have been able to get a better picture on what the fleet will look like by then. I am guessing that they have a set date in mind for Hawaii since they have pushed it to some point in 2nd Quarter. And they most likely have finalized the plans for the planes that will be retired. Of course that's all my guess, so who knows.

WN has resumed Tabletop simulations with the FAA and is hoping to have Proving flights finished within the temporary open government.
They already had WN staff report to HNL and OGG on January 21 for a targeted February start date before the government shutdown. If certification can be achieved with a few days WN will have an very short window of sale to fly by the end of February. I think Valentines Day/President Day weekend is the Targeted first day of flying.
High hopes.

Flyguy