Please continue from last year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1384465

This is a copy of my predictions from the 2018 thread to hopefully get some discussion started.

Before 2018 ends for us on the East coast, I have a few 2019 predictions for GRR.

AA: I hope MIA comes back next winter. I hope PHX is extended to year round. Other than that, I hope to see mainline stick for DFW and the planned CLT up gauge, PHL return and stay at 3x daily, and less 50 seaters on ORD. DCA isn't likely to change until the gate 35X situation is taken care of.

DL: Saturday MCO could be dropped, we'll see. I assume a bit more capacity will be added to ATL, while DTW and MSP will stay flat. I hope LGA will continue to stay at 3x daily. Outliers could be an LAX flight, BOS flight, JFK flight, or an SLC flight, but I would be surprised if even one of these happens. DL seems to be content to watch market share slip away, but they remain the largest.

F9: It's hard to even predict this. I think TPA and PHX may not return next winter. I think there will be one or two surprising additions, maybe RDU or MYR. F9 have only been back in GRR for a year, but at least it seems more successful than last time.

G4: The aircraft base has returned, we'll see if this sticks. I'd expect a few more frequencies, maybe MYR. Not anything too out of the ordinary.

UA: Ua has had a lot of east coast right-sizing, and that has yet to reach GRR. I would hope IAD will finally have more seats that one 50 seater, but I hope EWR can still maintain at least 2 large RJs. It's nice to see more seats into IAH, hopefully, this continues. I hope ORD and DEN see more mainline, DEN hopefully finally getting it year round. Maybe UA will try SFO, but I doubt it.

WN: This has been a very boring year for them. While summer capacity has remained stagnant, winter has slightly dropped. It would be great to see MCO return to year round. With loads being high on DEN, a second frequency isn't out of the question. I think a logical new destination is LAS, but I'd be surprised to see it come to fruition.

As a whole, I expect growth to still happen in 2019, but I expect it to slow to around 5% or so. In my opinion, DL has the most potential for growth but seems to be content with their apparent shuttle service to ATL, DTW, and MSP. If a new carrier came, I would be shocked, but I do expect at least one surprise of an unexpected drop or add. We'll have to wait and see...

While AA, DL, and UA all already serve most of the hub airports that will ever be served nonstop from TVC in the near future, UA could add TVC-IAH nonstop service and AA could add TVC-PHL nonstop service.

N592NW wrote:

AA: I hope MIA comes back next winter. I hope PHX is extended to year round. Other than that, I hope to see mainline stick for DFW and the planned CLT up gauge, PHL return and stay at 3x daily, and less 50 seaters on ORD. DCA isn't likely to change until the gate 35X situation is taken care of....

I see AA up-gauged one of the DCA-GRR flights to an E175 in December. Hopefully it continues.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/RPA ... /KDCA/KGRR

I checked AA.com for GRR-DFW- still showing the two daily Mad Dogs through August. Looks like they're switching to the A319 in early September 2019, so I would wager the route is doing well.

tjwgrr wrote:

I see AA up-gauged one of the DCA-GRR flights to an E175 in December. Hopefully it continues.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/RPA ... /KDCA/KGRR

I checked AA.com for GRR-DFW- still showing the two daily Mad Dogs through August. Looks like they're switching to the A319 in early September 2019, so I would wager the route is doing well.

The E175 isn’t scheduled further, but having it for awhile probably makes it more likely to come back. I also am glad to see mainline stick on DFW. What looks the best to me is the 1 A319, 2 E175 April schedule. 2 A319s is a slight drop from 2 MD 80s, but still an increase in capacity from the previous 3 E175.

FWIW, DL has up-gauged the RON flight/ 6am FNT-ATL flight from an MD-88 to a 738 for Jan-Apr 2019. The "default" schedule beyond shows an MD-88 for May, CR9 for Jun-Aug, the MD-88 Sept and beyond.

While not a huge increase in seats, its the largest aircraft DL has scheduled into FNT & the first PTV equipped aircraft as well from what I can recall. This may be somewhat a bi-product of further draw-down of the MD-88 fleet, or to compensate for the reduction of seats in the market with the termination of the FNT-MSP route in December 2018.

Very sad to seethe ongoing decline of AZO. AA only at 2/day for now. Even during winter it's sad that AZO can't support more.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/g66l-20 ... -rive.html This 5 million dollars is a big step towards the construction of a FIS. If construction starts this year, it could be done by 2021.

9w748capt wrote:

Very sad to seethe ongoing decline of AZO. AA only at 2/day for now. Even during winter it's sad that AZO can't support more.

I remember when I first started at AA in AZO back in 2007 we had 5 flights a day, and FNT had 2-3. How times have changed and FNT has been around 4 flights a day with 2 class RJ's.

N592NW wrote:

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/g66l-2019/01/76e51ca4e74757/grand-rapids-amphitheater-rive.html This 5 million dollars is a big step towards the construction of a FIS. If construction starts this year, it could be done by 2021.

I could see Apple Vacations moving their seasonal PUJ, CUN, and MBJ charter flights from Lansing to GRR when the FIS completed.

Some of this 20 year plan looks quite ambitious, but it does show where the FIS will be located at GRR:

redwingspilot wrote:

9w748capt wrote:

Very sad to seethe ongoing decline of AZO. AA only at 2/day for now. Even during winter it's sad that AZO can't support more.

I remember when I first started at AA in AZO back in 2007 we had 5 flights a day, and FNT had 2-3. How times have changed and FNT has been around 4 flights a day with 2 class RJ's.

I think a lot of this has to do with the growth at GRR. GRR is becoming the preferred airport for the West side of the state and DTW for the East side

As previously stated on the OAG update, some of the AZO cutback is temporary, and due to a runway construction project.

I was involved with the major reconstruction project there in the fall of 1977, so it's been a long time since there's been major work.

Here's a link regarding the summer closure.

https://wkzo.com/news/articles/2018/dec ... r-2-weeks/

I think TVC is becoming the gateway of the northern part of the state. Its perfectly normal for there to be 3 or 4 cities that can support a significant amount of air service.

I think TVC is under served in a way. I think TVC could support some Florida flights and maybe something west. I'd like to think that Allegiant would be able to do at least SFB, PIE, & PGD to start.

klm617 wrote:

redwingspilot wrote:

9w748capt wrote:

Very sad to seethe ongoing decline of AZO. AA only at 2/day for now. Even during winter it's sad that AZO can't support more.

I remember when I first started at AA in AZO back in 2007 we had 5 flights a day, and FNT had 2-3. How times have changed and FNT has been around 4 flights a day with 2 class RJ's.

I think a lot of this has to do with the growth at GRR. GRR is becoming the preferred airport for the West side of the state and DTW for the East side

Yeah no doubt. Many more frequencies/destinations available from GRR, and only a 45 minute-ish drive from Kalamazoo. I try to put it in perspective and tell myself that pretty much no one in the LA area can get to an airport in less than an hour haha, so I really shouldn't be complaining about a 45 minute drive, usually in minimal traffic.

9w748capt wrote:

klm617 wrote:

redwingspilot wrote:

I remember when I first started at AA in AZO back in 2007 we had 5 flights a day, and FNT had 2-3. How times have changed and FNT has been around 4 flights a day with 2 class RJ's.

I think a lot of this has to do with the growth at GRR. GRR is becoming the preferred airport for the West side of the state and DTW for the East side

Yeah no doubt. Many more frequencies/destinations available from GRR, and only a 45 minute-ish drive from Kalamazoo. I try to put it in perspective and tell myself that pretty much no one in the LA area can get to an airport in less than an hour haha, so I really shouldn't be complaining about a 45 minute drive, usually in minimal traffic.

Not to mention there are just plain fewer regional options than there were a decade ago. DLC, UAX, and Eagle are the only players left for regional feed in the upper midwest, and there's probably enough local business traffic flying out of AZO to keep their current service levels despite being so close to GRR (they also probably draw a lot of leisure travel from the southwestern parts of the state that don't want to drive all the way to GRR).

Also, the growth of LCCs in GRR like Frontier can’t be helping AZO. Legacy carriers at AZO vs legacy at GRR is probably a harder choice to make than choosing between a cheap nonstop on Frontier from GRR vs an expensive connecting itenerary from AZO. Sad to see, but interesting at the same time.

Hearing more and more talk of AA starting GRR-LAX. That would be a spectacular route.

airtran737 wrote:

Hearing more and more talk of AA starting GRR-LAX. That would be a spectacular route.

I agree that it would be a spectacular route to have, but I’m not convinced it would make a spectacular profit. I think that it’s likely to happen, but I’d be surprised to see it announced this year without some sort of subsidy/revenue guarantee. I would assume it would either be AA on an A319 or DL on an A220, but I’d be shocked to see an A220 go into such a secondary market as GRR for quite awhile.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

FWIW, DL has up-gauged the RON flight/ 6am FNT-ATL flight from an MD-88 to a 738 for Jan-Apr 2019. The "default" schedule beyond shows an MD-88 for May, CR9 for Jun-Aug, the MD-88 Sept and beyond.

While not a huge increase in seats, its the largest aircraft DL has scheduled into FNT & the first PTV equipped aircraft as well from what I can recall. This may be somewhat a bi-product of further draw-down of the MD-88 fleet, or to compensate for the reduction of seats in the market with the termination of the FNT-MSP route in December 2018.

So so you think mainline sticks around long-term here? Funny to see regional for the peak season scheduled but DL seems overstretched for mainline as it is.

Allegiant announcing GRR-SAV and GRR-BNA starting in June.

GRR-SAV starts June 7, operates Mondays and Fridays
GRR-BNA starts June 6, operates Sundays and Thursdays

Some other press release happening this morning regarding GRR and Allegiant also. Supposedly something in addition to these new routes. Perhaps the official announcement that GRR will be a G4 base again.

I think part of AA's capacity reduction in AZO also has to do with UA re-entering the market a few years ago (it was dropped in 2008) and seemingly quickly regaining their "fair share" of the market.

tjwgrr wrote:

Allegiant announcing GRR-SAV and GRR-BNA starting in June.

GRR-SAV starts June 7, operates Mondays and Fridays
GRR-BNA starts June 6, operates Sundays and Thursdays

Some other press release happening this morning regarding GRR and Allegiant also. Supposedly something in addition to these new routes. Perhaps the official announcement that GRR will be a G4 base again.

The press conference was the official announcement of GRR becoming a RON crew and aircraft base, and the new service to SAV and BNA.

tjwgrr wrote:

tjwgrr wrote:

Allegiant announcing GRR-SAV and GRR-BNA starting in June.

GRR-SAV starts June 7, operates Mondays and Fridays
GRR-BNA starts June 6, operates Sundays and Thursdays

Some other press release happening this morning regarding GRR and Allegiant also. Supposedly something in addition to these new routes. Perhaps the official announcement that GRR will be a G4 base again.

The press conference was the official announcement of GRR becoming a RON crew and aircraft base, and the new service to SAV and BNA.

it's good to see the base officially announced. I'm not too surprised by BNA, but SAV wasn't even on my radar. However, Michiganders love beaches, and Hilton Head Island is near SAV, so it will probably work.

In the press conference, on the screen, it showed SAV as Savannah/Hilton Head.

flymco753 wrote:

I think TVC is becoming the gateway of the northern part of the state. Its perfectly normal for there to be 3 or 4 cities that can support a significant amount of air service.

I think TVC is under served in a way. I think TVC could support some Florida flights and maybe something west. I'd like to think that Allegiant would be able to do at least SFB, PIE, & PGD to start.

I am surprised that TVC hasn't landed Allegiant yet. While there is a lot of inbound traffic in the summer there are a lot of people up north that take vacations in Florida in the winter.

It might be worth noting that the only mainline flight for Delta scheduled to TVC at this moment during the summer is a 717 from LGA.

flymco753 wrote:

It might be worth noting that the only mainline flight for Delta scheduled to TVC at this moment during the summer is a 717 from LGA.

they will adjust things closer in. There will be mainline to DTW,MSP and probably again weekend to ATL.

tjwgrr wrote:

The press conference was the official announcement of GRR becoming a RON crew and aircraft base...

Courtesy: Aviation Pros

Allegiant Announces Aircraft Base in Grand Rapids, New Jobs and Future Growth Opportunities

https://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/12440584/allegiant-announces-aircraft-base-in-grand-rapids-new-jobs-and-future-growth-opportunities

Any news on what might be going on in the U.P.??

https://mdotjboss.state.mi.us/AIRSTATS/ ... atType=pdf
GRR, MKG, and TVC are all up from last year. It looks like AZO will be too once they release their December numbers. I had hoped for 3mil from GRR in 2018, and my expectations were exceeded. 3,263,234 passengers!

How long until AA adds CLT-FNT?

All the CLT to Smaller Midwest Towns seem to be performing well this last year, there is such a need for this flight (even if once a day on a CR7)

Will be interesting to see what happens!

Elite Airways is starting TVC-SRQ weekly, starting March 16

http://www.prunderground.com/elite-airw ... /00147721/

727LOVER wrote:

Elite Airways is starting TVC-SRQ weekly, starting March 16

http://www.prunderground.com/elite-airw ... /00147721/

Love it great add for TVC and a great add for Michigan and DTW still has no year round SRQ flights.

727LOVER wrote:

Elite Airways is starting TVC-SRQ weekly, starting March 16

http://www.prunderground.com/elite-airw ... /00147721/

Once a week service, many airports have been left at the altar by Elite. Just saying, don't hold your breath about this service even beginning or lasting beyond a flight or two.

Traverse City has been getting a lot of love lately. Just wonder if it could get B6 summer only flight from NYC

AA ORD-TVC JUN 4>6[4] JUL 4>6[5] AUG 4>6[4] SEP 4>6[5] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4]

Let's give some love to the U.P

MARQUETTE -- Sawyer International Airport, County of Marquette, receives Airport of the Year Award.

The Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) Office of Aeronautics has named the Sawyer International Airport in Marquette as Airport of the Year, in recognition of sustained excellence and contribution to aviation progress in the State of Michigan. Duane DuRay, Sawyer’s Airport Manager, was also presented a service award for outstanding contributions to airport development and aviation progress.

https://www.upmatters.com/news/local-ne ... rJSzPU9iMM

Here is an interesting note that I never thought would happen because for a long time Delta had the most activity and Northwest before that.

Courtesy: Aviation Pros
Allegiant now Largest Airline at Flint Bishop International Airport

https://www.aviationpros.com/airports/press-release/21073310/bishop-international-airport-fnt-allegiant-now-largest-airline-at-flint-bishop-international-airport

Courtesy: WJRT-TV

United Airlines adds a new afternoon flight from Flint to Chicago

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/United-Airlines-adds-another-flight-from-Flint-to-Chicago-507960931.html

KarlB737 wrote:

Courtesy: WJRT-TV

United Airlines adds a new afternoon flight from Flint to Chicago

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/United-Airlines-adds-another-flight-from-Flint-to-Chicago-507960931.html

AA will be up to 4 flights as well May 3rd, mix of ER4 and CR7.

KarlB737 wrote:

Courtesy: WJRT-TV

United Airlines adds a new afternoon flight from Flint to Chicago

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/United-Airlines-adds-another-flight-from-Flint-to-Chicago-507960931.html

Great news for Flint good to see them making a bit of a come back. Would still love to see FNT-MCO and FNT-LAS.

Flint is advertising a “new route” announcement tomorrow, 4/11 at 10am on their Facebook page.. any guesses as to where it is?

My guess: AA FNT-CLT or FNT-DFW

Interesting, although with teaser Facebook posts it has the hallmarks of being a G4 route announcement.

I'd put outside chance on AA FNT-CLT. I don't see them trying a long-thin FNT-DFW again.

Also while speaking about FNT, DL has up-gauged the RON flight from what had been an MD-88 to a 738 in January, and now its up to a 739 on most days of the week.

flyboyrj wrote:

Flint is advertising a “new route” announcement tomorrow, 4/11 at 10am on their Facebook page.. any guesses as to where it is?

My guess: AA FNT-CLT or FNT-DFW

I know it's a long shot but how about Sun Country.

klm617 wrote:

flyboyrj wrote:

Flint is advertising a “new route” announcement tomorrow, 4/11 at 10am on their Facebook page.. any guesses as to where it is?

My guess: AA FNT-CLT or FNT-DFW

I know it's a long shot but how about Sun Country.

While I think that the "new route" announcement at FNT is likely on an airline other than F9, F9 adding service to FNT might be a possibility with F9 still expanding to new destinations in the contiguous U.S.

Speaking of AZO. I find it interesting that 40 years ago, they had however many flights, with DTW and ORD the furthest nonstop locations. Today, you get DTW, ORD, and a MSP. Certainly not a lot of change lol. Except it is nit on just one airline (NC then RC).

sprxUSA wrote:

Speaking of AZO. I find it interesting that 40 years ago, they had however many flights, with DTW and ORD the furthest nonstop locations. Today, you get DTW, ORD, and a MSP. Certainly not a lot of change lol. Except it is nit on just one airline (NC then RC).

Back in the 60's Lake Central also served Kalamazoo.

jplatts wrote:

klm617 wrote:

flyboyrj wrote:

Flint is advertising a “new route” announcement tomorrow, 4/11 at 10am on their Facebook page.. any guesses as to where it is?

My guess: AA FNT-CLT or FNT-DFW

I know it's a long shot but how about Sun Country.

While I think that the "new route" announcement at FNT is likely on an airline other than F9, F9 adding service to FNT might be a possibility with F9 still expanding to new destinations in the contiguous U.S.

You're right I think if it was a new airline that would have included that in the announcement so I'll go with a new G4 route.

klm617 wrote:

flyboyrj wrote:

Flint is advertising a “new route” announcement tomorrow, 4/11 at 10am on their Facebook page.. any guesses as to where it is?

My guess: AA FNT-CLT or FNT-DFW

I know it's a long shot but how about Sun Country.

Remember when they had a mini hub in LAN?

Probably Allegiant.

flyboyrj wrote:

Flint is advertising a “new route” announcement tomorrow, 4/11 at 10am on their Facebook page.. any guesses as to where it is?

My guess: AA FNT-CLT or FNT-DFW

It's CLT starting in Sept.