Please continue from last year's thread.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1391641

My 2019 Predictions:
-MSP-PVG gets (officially) announced by DL
-SY adds a few seasonal vacation routes. Possibly POS and SXM
-DL cans 1-2 regional routes
-GSP gets DL service from MSP
-EI performs well
-NK launches 1-2 new routes

N292UX wrote:

My 2019 Predictions:
-MSP-PVG gets (officially) announced by DL
-SY adds a few seasonal vacation routes. Possibly POS and SXM
-DL cans 1-2 regional routes
-GSP gets DL service from MSP
-EI performs well
-NK launches 1-2 new routes

Assuming the Delta-Westjet JV is approved, I’d expect a Westjet will launch something to MSP next year. Maybe YQR returns or possibly YQT.

N292UX wrote:

My 2019 Predictions:
-MSP-PVG gets (officially) announced by DL
-SY adds a few seasonal vacation routes. Possibly POS and SXM
-DL cans 1-2 regional routes
-GSP gets DL service from MSP
-EI performs well
-NK launches 1-2 new routes

MSP-PVG I agree with, DL pretty much said if they get gov. approval they were going ahead with it.
I don't think any new SY seasonal vacation routes will be announced from MSP, but I do see them adding STT and SXM again.
Yes, the demise of one or two regional routes will happen.
Not sure about GSP, I think DL routes that traffic through Atlanta.
Yes, DUB will most likely be a success for EI.
Don't see this one happening either.

I do think that JetBlue will start some new routes from MSP in 2019. Possibly MCO, LGB and FLL?

B6 is very premature in MSP to get any additional service at this time. FLL isn't doing great from CLE and ORD, they dropped it from DTW & PIT, I don't think it'll be something MSP will get from B6. BOS needs to be proven before adding additional markets. Does anyone have LF's on B6's BOS-MSP route?

flymco753 wrote:

B6 is very premature in MSP to get any additional service at this time. FLL isn't doing great from CLE and ORD, they dropped it from DTW & PIT, I don't think it'll be something MSP will get from B6. BOS needs to be proven before adding additional markets. Does anyone have LF's on B6's BOS-MSP route?

I don't know about load factors, but anecdotally B6 often shows up as the cheap option when I've looked at flights out east, even with the out-of-way BOS layover. Fares seem to be kind of low so I am somewhat concerned about yields. They are also sometimes the cheap option to Europe with their codeshare partners out of BOS. Even for a one-way flight MSP-BOS, B6 seems to average $75, sometimes as cheap as $64, and only occasionally over $100. DL seems to be matching them but only in Basic Economy. Either way the route seems like a bloodbath.

rainaviation wrote:

N292UX wrote:

My 2019 Predictions:
-MSP-PVG gets (officially) announced by DL
-SY adds a few seasonal vacation routes. Possibly POS and SXM
-DL cans 1-2 regional routes
-GSP gets DL service from MSP
-EI performs well
-NK launches 1-2 new routes

MSP-PVG I agree with, DL pretty much said if they get gov. approval they were going ahead with it.
I don't think any new SY seasonal vacation routes will be announced from MSP, but I do see them adding STT and SXM again.
Yes, the demise of one or two regional routes will happen.
Not sure about GSP, I think DL routes that traffic through Atlanta.
Yes, DUB will most likely be a success for EI.
Don't see this one happening either.

I do think that JetBlue will start some new routes from MSP in 2019. Possibly MCO, LGB and FLL?

I'd love to see B6 start MSP-FLL to make Caribbean connections more direct than having to go to BOS. MSP-LGB would also be nice to have as an alternative to LAX.

N292UX wrote:

My 2019 Predictions:
-MSP-PVG gets (officially) announced by DL
-SY adds a few seasonal vacation routes. Possibly POS and SXM
-DL cans 1-2 regional routes
-GSP gets DL service from MSP
-EI performs well
-NK launches 1-2 new routes

I believe SY will return again to both SXM and STT for the 2019-2020 winter schedule.

Any WN predictions? Losing ATL this year but adding a BNA

Nice to see that GSP-MSP is getting talked about. The traffic is there. I'm going up to Yellowknife in February, and ended up opting to take UA/AC (2 stops) rather than WS/DL (3 stops). GSP doesn't get DEN service on UA either, and I think of MSP as DL's peer competitor for that market space (SLC does other things).

The other adds that might make some sense are Providence, Eugene, and Colorado Springs. Any thoughts as to the potential for MSP-ONT/BUR services?

SteveXC500 wrote:

Any WN predictions? Losing ATL this year but adding a BNA

WN could add MSP-HOU nonstop service since (a) WN is still expanding domestically at HOU, (b) HOU used to have nonstop service out of MSP on SY in the past, (c) HOU is one of WN's largest focus cities, and (d) WN would be able to offer connections to AUS, SAT, CRP, HRL, and international markets from MSP through HOU if MSP-HOU nonstop service is added.

WN is still expanding in California in order to better compete against AS, and WN could add MSP-SAN nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the SAN market.

WN could also extend MSP-MCO nonstop service to daily nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis with WN no longer serving MCO nonstop from ATL. WN would also be able to offer connections to FLL and SJU from MSP through MCO if WN extends MSP-MCO to daily nonstop service from Saturday-only nonstop service.

BUR would be a nice alternative to LAX.

lavalampluva wrote:

BUR would be a nice alternative to LAX.

Never going to happen. SNA is the current alternative and DL has 3-4 flights per day to SNA. There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX.

SteveXC500 wrote:

Any WN predictions? Losing ATL this year but adding a BNA

With the addition of DAL, I could see WN adding service (maybe winter seasonal) to HOU to capture some connecting traffic to the south.

GSO-msp would be a nice add.

jplatts wrote:

WN could also extend MSP-MCO nonstop service to daily nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis with WN no longer serving MCO nonstop from ATL.

Correction: WN could also extend MSP-MCO nonstop service to daily nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis with WN discontinuing MSP-ATL nonstop service.

jplatts wrote:

jplatts wrote:

WN could also extend MSP-MCO nonstop service to daily nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis with WN no longer serving MCO nonstop from ATL.

Correction: WN could also extend MSP-MCO nonstop service to daily nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis with WN discontinuing MSP-ATL nonstop service.

WN did fly MSP-MCO for a while after the FL merger and discontinued it. I don't see where the conditions in the market have improved any so I dont see a WN return to the route.

flymco753 wrote:

B6 is very premature in MSP to get any additional service at this time. FLL isn't doing great from CLE and ORD, they dropped it from DTW & PIT, I don't think it'll be something MSP will get from B6. BOS needs to be proven before adding additional markets. Does anyone have LF's on B6's BOS-MSP route?

May 2018
B6 BOS-MSP 74.6%
B6 MSP-BOS 77.5%

June 2018
B6 BOS-MSP 79.5%
B6 MSP-BOS 85.5%

July 2018
B6 BOS-MSP 88.0%
B6 MSP-BOS 85.1%

August 2018
B6 BOS-MSP 87.1%
B6 MSP-BOS 88.5%

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

MSP-FLL wont work. Yields aren't great to the Miami area. I think JFK is the next bet, but there's other places I'd think would be in line for it first simply because MSP is "young" for B6.

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

Lets not get carried away. Those numbers are encouraging, but it’s during peak travel season. I’m curious on how they perform in the winter season.

LGB is most definitely not going to happen. FLL? On paper it makes sense to add. I’m troubled with all the trimming B6 has been doing out of FLL, I wouldn’t bet on it.

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

Those loads are achieved with pretty low fares though. B6 can't be pulling in a huge margin yet.
I agree, people in MPLS might want B6, but I bet the people (frequent fliers) of BOS wanted it more.

jplatts wrote:

SteveXC500 wrote:

Any WN predictions? Losing ATL this year but adding a BNA

WN could add MSP-HOU nonstop service since (a) WN is still expanding domestically at HOU, (b) HOU used to have nonstop service out of MSP on SY in the past, (c) HOU is one of WN's largest focus cities, and (d) WN would be able to offer connections to AUS, SAT, CRP, HRL, and international markets from MSP through HOU if MSP-HOU nonstop service is added.

WN is still expanding in California in order to better compete against AS, and WN could add MSP-SAN nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the SAN market.

WN could also extend MSP-MCO nonstop service to daily nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis with WN no longer serving MCO nonstop from ATL. WN would also be able to offer connections to FLL and SJU from MSP through MCO if WN extends MSP-MCO to daily nonstop service from Saturday-only nonstop service.

Not what they "could" do but what they are LIKELY to do. Planning isn't done on a dartboard, unless you're F9.

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

If SY wasn't around, I'd agree but SY offers a very competitive alternative to DL when it comes to the Caribbean. As great as B6's network from FLL is, I think they'll have a hard time given the plethora of non-stop flights from MSP.

Now if SY starts to scale back its winter seasonal flights, I think B6 could do very well on FLL. But until then, I think they'll stay away.

And the competition to Florida includes NK and F9, in addition to SY/DL (AA to MIA). My guess is, B6 isn't likely to do anything MSP-Florida for a while.

klakzky123 wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

If SY wasn't around, I'd agree but SY offers a very competitive alternative to DL when it comes to the Caribbean. As great as B6's network from FLL is, I think they'll have a hard time given the plethora of non-stop flights from MSP.

Now if SY starts to scale back its winter seasonal flights, I think B6 could do very well on FLL. But until then, I think they'll stay away.

How is SY competitive with DL in the Caribbean? I don’t see that at all. It surely isn’t from the standpoint of destinations. SY only serves 5 cities in the Caribbean, which is far fewer than DL serves. Price? I’ve seen prices on DL from MSP to Caribbean destinations served by both carriers and in some instances DL was lower and other instances they were tied with SY. Granted, pricing might have changed in the last few weeks since I planned my upcoming winter vacation.

I used to be a regular SY flier on their non-stops from MSP to SJU and SXM for many years. Once they made their change to an LCC or a ULCC, depending on your point of view, I shifted all my Caribbean flying to DL. I’m able to book and enjoy first class, have no baggage fees and I can accumulate miles using their Skymiles card. I’m booked for MSP-SXM in a few weeks and I’ll have a ‘not too long’ stop in ATL both ways and I’m perfectly happy with that. DL is offering some non-stops from MSP to Caribbean destinations in January and February, but I wasn’t able to take advantage of them because of my dates for travel.

B6 also has a vast network in the Caribbean and I think it would be a good move to add a MSP-FLL run to connect with their destinations down there. I’d give B6 a try if I could do a MSP-FLL-? routing than having to go to BOS or JFK.

As I posted in JetBlue thread, I expect them to add JFK and FLL this year as retaliation for DL moves at BOS. JFK is more about slot usage than anything else. They should be able to make 2 a day work. JFK-ATL has been a roaring success so far. FLL will be more about hurting DL yields to Latin America (as they've already done at ATL). MSP doesn't have the same NK presence as DTW. SY with its limited once per week winter season only schedule is not really competition to what B6 offers.

When did B6 cut back their MSP-BOS frequencies from 3 daily flights to 2 daily flights? Just checked Flightaware and other online sources and I was surprised to see only 2 daily flights including 1 flight using an E-190 aircraft. Didn't they start their MSP service with 3 daily A320 flights to BOS?

SUNCTRY738 wrote:

When did B6 cut back their MSP-BOS frequencies from 3 daily flights to 2 daily flights? Just checked Flightaware and other online sources and I was surprised to see only 2 daily flights including 1 flight using an E-190 aircraft. Didn't they start their MSP service with 3 daily A320 flights to BOS?

This plus the story on "amazing low fares" including some under $50 E/W suggests Mr. Delta is absolutely annihilating JetBlue business case on MSP-BOS, which was probably a 50 year goldmine for DL. This is an educated guess, and conclusive evidence can probably be produced.

JetBlue is a neat airline, but if Delta decides Jetblue should lose a lot of money on a route, then that is what will happen until they give up.

Three flights on B6 tomorrow, Jan 3rd.

I didn't know SY was down to once a day. Didn't they do 2x a day at one point??

SteveXC500 wrote:

Three flights on B6 tomorrow, Jan 3rd.

The morning and afternoon flight are daily. The evening flight is everyday except Saturday.

rainaviation wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

BUR would be a nice alternative to LAX.

Never going to happen. SNA is the current alternative and DL has 3-4 flights per day to SNA. There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX.

those DL fares to SNA are often astronomical. on that basis alone, it seems to me there's room for alternatives (though I'm not saying BUR is it).

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

and yet your the same person who wrote that about LGB ? what gives?

klakzky123 wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

If SY wasn't around, I'd agree but SY offers a very competitive alternative to DL when it comes to the Caribbean. As great as B6's network from FLL is, I think they'll have a hard time given the plethora of non-stop flights from MSP.

Now if SY starts to scale back its winter seasonal flights, I think B6 could do very well on FLL. But until then, I think they'll stay away.

SY long ago scaled way back on its winter beach flights.
As MSPSXMFLIER says, SY routes to the Caribbean is sparse compered to DL's. Even the massive Mexico routes have been cut, and deep. Previously, 5x day to Cancun during spring break was the norm (my memory), now its 2x.... and the times suck.

But unlike MSPSXMFLIER, I don't think connections are competitive if there's a non-stop alternative (be it DL or SY). But I can see some reason to compete FLL hub against DL's required ATL connections

sunking737 wrote:

I didn't know SY was down to once a day. Didn't they do 2x a day at one point??

For which route? BOS?

BOS has been one or two flights for years. They take the winter months off starting next week. SY loves to move around frequencies with their schedule. I always find it funny to look at some of their flight schedules like MSP-SAN. During the winter months, SAN-MSP is operated on so many different days of the week in different combinations it is crazy!

FlyHappy wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

BUR would be a nice alternative to LAX.

Never going to happen. SNA is the current alternative and DL has 3-4 flights per day to SNA. There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX.

those DL fares to SNA are often astronomical. on that basis alone, it seems to me there's room for alternatives (though I'm not saying BUR is it).

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

and yet your the same person who wrote that about LGB ? what gives?

Yes they are astronomical, I just think another southern CA airport from MSP wouldn't happen. Who knows though, anything can happen in this industry.

What did I write about LGB?

rainaviation wrote:

FlyHappy wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

Never going to happen. SNA is the current alternative and DL has 3-4 flights per day to SNA. There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX.

those DL fares to SNA are often astronomical. on that basis alone, it seems to me there's room for alternatives (though I'm not saying BUR is it).

rainaviation wrote:

Those near 90% loads in August do not look premature to me! People in Minneapolis want JetBlue, if B6 were to add a route to LGB or FLL, it would be successful. Especially FLL due to the massive connection opportunities to the south.

and yet your the same person who wrote that about LGB ? what gives?

Yes they are astronomical, I just think another southern CA airport from MSP wouldn't happen. Who knows though, anything can happen in this industry.

What did I write about LGB?

I don't think it would be asking for the moon. Even 1 daily flight to BUR would be fine. As long as it was timed right. But I can't recall is BUR is a slotted airport.

Would the PVG flight be on one of DL's A359's?

Marco12390 wrote:

Would the PVG flight be on one of DL's A359's?

I think DL already announced that they'd fly the route on an A359 if it is approved.

klakzky123 wrote:

Marco12390 wrote:

Would the PVG flight be on one of DL's A359's?

I think DL already announced that they'd fly the route on an A359 if it is approved.

Yes, they did say that it would operate on the A359.

I cannot wait for the day we see three flights to Asia once again! PVG, HND, and ICN. If PVG happens, that is. When was the last time MSP had three aircraft flying to Asia?

rainaviation wrote:

klakzky123 wrote:

Marco12390 wrote:

Would the PVG flight be on one of DL's A359's?

I think DL already announced that they'd fly the route on an A359 if it is approved.

Yes, they did say that it would operate on the A359.

I cannot wait for the day we see three flights to Asia once again! PVG, HND, and ICN. If PVG happens, that is. When was the last time MSP had three aircraft flying to Asia?

1998. Albeit a short time but they flew nonstop MSP to NRT, HKG, and KIX.

rainaviation wrote:

What did I write about LGB?

Did I misquote you?
"f B6 were to add a route to LGB ... it would be successful"

at the same time:
"There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX"

how do you hold both these positions?

LGB could be possible, but I think it is too close to SNA geographically. I chose BUR mostly due to it being north of LAX.

lavalampluva wrote:

LGB could be possible, but I think it is too close to SNA geographically. I chose BUR mostly due to it being north of LAX.

I see it in quite the opposite way.
SNA commands a serious $ premium on longer flights due to a variety of reasons, and DL is able to collect, connecting to their fortresses.
Any other longer/direct/connection service options from the business heavy suburbs of LA (no more so than Orange County) will find takers, and it won't be at the expense of LAX, but SNA - from DL's hub traffic or WN's insane dominance at SNA (personally, I've always wondered if business travelers really like WN, or if its just the best option available).

I think MSP - LGB is a winner, not in spite of SNA, but almost because of SNA....

WN begins daily MSP-DAL tomorrow, 1/7/19.

FlyHappy wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

What did I write about LGB?

Did I misquote you?
"f B6 were to add a route to LGB ... it would be successful"

at the same time:
"There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX"

how do you hold both these positions?

Sorry, yes I did say both of those. Let me make it more clear... I would LIKE to see B6 on MSP-LGB. I just need to see the numbers so make a decision as to its possible success. Sometimes I confuse myself.

Any 2018 numbers?

rainaviation wrote:

FlyHappy wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

What did I write about LGB?

Did I misquote you?
"f B6 were to add a route to LGB ... it would be successful"

at the same time:
"There is not enough demand for an alternative to SNA and LAX"

how do you hold both these positions?

Sorry, yes I did say both of those. Let me make it more clear... I would LIKE to see B6 on MSP-LGB. I just need to see the numbers so make a decision as to its possible success. Sometimes I confuse myself.

Well, then let me join you in that LIKE to see camp on LGB. I think there is money to be made their by siphoning off some of DL's SNA traffic, but we can't know it without access to private financial data; just the numbers of bodies doesn't tell the tale...

Passing through MSP today, want us the all-white MD-90 (I think) parked over on the DL ramp just past the east end of concourse G?

I don’t believe it had engines on but I didn’t get a good look.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Passing through MSP today, want us the all-white MD-90 (I think) parked over on the DL ramp just past the east end of concourse G?

I don’t believe it had engines on but I didn’t get a good look.

It's been at MSP for a couple years, at least. DL bought it dirt-cheap, flew it in to MSP to use as an engine test frame, IIRC.