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Bricktop
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:19 pm

:( Another delay until launch and longer to wait for the Airbus fanboys to tell us how badly it sucks.
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:24 pm

seahawk wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
Hmmm...Launch now in 2020. That means entry in service likely would be closer to 2027. The last 767 passenger and 757's will be mostly gone by then.

Trouble singing up launch customers? Or maybe waiting out a A321XLR and forcing Airbus hand?...Newer A321 versions do not make sense if delayed much longer. Both A and B still have to think about offering a new single-isle after 2025

NMA was always a risky market segment...still a possiblity it will never fly?


No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Even if they launched this year...no way can a 2025 EIS happen -- that is marketing goals. The engine actually may be the major time long-pole, A certified 50 klb engine is only in OEM's wet dreams as of now.

No production facilities started or time critical engine development is going to occur until after official launch if it happens in 2020 (or ever!). New aircraft need at least a year of certification flying...you can't launch in 2020 and fly by 2024. Best case EIS is late 2026...more likely 2027 and full rate production closer to 2030.
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:30 pm

Well, if they sign contract with launch customers for 2025 delivery, those are hard goals. Now one can discuss if Boeing is so stupid to sign such contracts if they can make the deadline or if they will sign such contracts at all.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The very simple thing is that Boeing is delaying the decision in regards to launching the 797. It is déjà vu. 2017 it was supposed to launch at the Paris air show. 2018 it was supposed to be launched at Farnborough. Than the talk was about Paris airshow in 2019. Now it is moved to the end of this year, not a launch, but the authorization to offer, with launch perhaps in 2020.

If the business case would be there and the configuration fixed, that frame would be launched. IMO there is no business case for a single configuration and the expectations of airlines to far apart.

Some prefer to push the FUD narrative, but if you look at Jon Ostrower's recent article ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... -decision/ ) you read that 1,000 employees are working on the design's details and mechanical engineers are being trained on state of the art design tools while the time is being used to squeeze the supply chain. Boeing has said all along that closing the business case is the big challenge, and to do that they're seeking lower up front pricing and a cut of the supplier's lifetime revenue stream.

This should be no surprise to anyone following events. Boeing is trying to make the point that this product targets a niche market therefore it needs such concessions. The vendors can see the obvious slippery slope argument: if they make concessions now, they will be forced to do so for all future products too, big and small. We see Boeing has announced some ventures in areas that used to be done by vendors such as APU and flight computers. It should be obvious they are doing all this to keep more of the plane's spending for itself and to show vendors that they can/will be bypassed if their pricing isn't deemed acceptable.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The very simple thing is that Boeing is delaying the decision in regards to launching the 797. It is déjà vu. 2017 it was supposed to launch at the Paris air show. 2018 it was supposed to be launched at Farnborough. Than the talk was about Paris airshow in 2019. Now it is moved to the end of this year, not a launch, but the authorization to offer, with launch perhaps in 2020.

If the business case would be there and the configuration fixed, that frame would be launched. IMO there is no business case for a single configuration and the expectations of airlines to far apart.

Some prefer to push the FUD narrative, but if you look at Jon Ostrower's recent article ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... -decision/ ) you read that 1,000 employees are working on the design's details and mechanical engineers are being trained on state of the art design tools while the time is being used to squeeze the supply chain. Boeing has said all along that closing the business case is the big challenge, and to do that they're seeking lower up front pricing and a cut of the supplier's lifetime revenue stream.

This should be no surprise to anyone following events. Boeing is trying to make the point that this product targets a niche market therefore it needs such concessions. The vendors can see the obvious slippery slope argument: if they make concessions now, they will be forced to do so for all future products too, big and small. We see Boeing has announced some ventures in areas that used to be done by vendors such as APU and flight computers. It should be obvious they are doing all this to keep more of the plane's spending for itself.


Just a few weeks ago you were sure about the launch at Paris.

So what, a lot of people worked on projects at Boeing through the years that never were launched. Yellowstone project Y1, Y2 and Y3. Y2 with first the Sonic Cruiser, never launched, but morphed into the 787. Y1 was pushed until Airbus brought the A320neo and Boeing scrambling to bring the MAX.
I do not say the guys do not something useful. A lot of things preparing for the 797 could be used on a 737 replacement or something similar.
 
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DL717
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:07 pm

If the capacities mentioned on this are correct, this will really eat up the smaller end of the wide body segment, essentially killing the 788 except for those who want a long thin route. Might even be a little big... it’s like a 753 and a 764. Maybe that’s high density configuration though. This thing should fall between a 752/753 and between a 763/764.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:10 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Just a few weeks ago you were sure about the launch at Paris.

Feel free to show me where I said I was sure NMA would launch at Paris.

mjoelnir wrote:
So what, a lot of people worked on projects at Boeing through the years that never were launched. Yellowstone project Y1, Y2 and Y3. Y2 with first the Sonic Cruiser, never launched, but morphed into the 787. Y1 was pushed until Airbus brought the A320neo and Boeing scrambling to bring the MAX.
I do not say the guys do not something useful. A lot of things preparing for the 797 could be used on a 737 replacement or something similar.

I'm sure I've posted frequently and recently that NMA might never launch because the business case is difficult to close.

This is just more of the same.

Last time Jon leaked a story he said it was 250 employees, now it's up to 1,000. We even had one of those employees post here on a.net.

If they decided to launch, I'm sure everyone involved learned something that could be useful in their future careers, because like most lead engineers I've been involved in many programs that never made it to market and have always retained something useful from those programs.

Muillenberg made the point that NMA is set up to take people as they roll off the 77X program and that is what seems to be happening, with or without a formal program launch.
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Just a few weeks ago you were sure about the launch at Paris.

Feel free to show me where I said I was sure NMA would launch at Paris.


I won't spend Googling for 2 hours. Many in the press got caught up in hope and breaking news about exited airlines, Udvar, Delta, thus Paris 2019 was a go. Now reality is kicking in again. Some are trying to change the topic, generalizing, taking side lanes. :wink2:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The very simple thing is that Boeing is delaying the decision in regards to launching the 797. It is déjà vu. 2017 it was supposed to launch at the Paris air show. 2018 it was supposed to be launched at Farnborough. Than the talk was about Paris airshow in 2019. Now it is moved to the end of this year, not a launch, but the authorization to offer, with launch perhaps in 2020.

If the business case would be there and the configuration fixed, that frame would be launched. IMO there is no business case for a single configuration and the expectations of airlines to far apart.

Some prefer to push the FUD narrative, but if you look at Jon Ostrower's recent article ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... -decision/ ) you read that 1,000 employees are working on the design's details and mechanical engineers are being trained on state of the art design tools while the time is being used to squeeze the supply chain. Boeing has said all along that closing the business case is the big challenge, and to do that they're seeking lower up front pricing and a cut of the supplier's lifetime revenue stream.

This should be no surprise to anyone following events. Boeing is trying to make the point that this product targets a niche market therefore it needs such concessions. The vendors can see the obvious slippery slope argument: if they make concessions now, they will be forced to do so for all future products too, big and small. We see Boeing has announced some ventures in areas that used to be done by vendors such as APU and flight computers. It should be obvious they are doing all this to keep more of the plane's spending for itself and to show vendors that they can/will be bypassed if their pricing isn't deemed acceptable.


It is a choice to either believe Boeing is working on the design and business case and about to decide whether to offer the airplane for sale for a 2025 delivery, or believe that they are delaying the program because Boeing doesn’t believe the airplane will be viable and think this is indication that the program may be canceled.

Here are some facts:

  • 777 launched in 1990 with anticipated deliveries in 1995 (5 years from launch to delivery)
  • Embraer 170 launched in 1999 with anticipated deliveries in 2004 (5 years from launch to delivery)
  • 787 launched in 2004 with anticipated deliveries in 2008 (4 years expected from launch to delivery, 7 years in reality)
  • A350 launched in 2005 with anticipated deliveries in 2010 (5 years expected from launch to delivery, 10 years in reality)

Recent development program indicate that a whole lot more work up front is necessary to protect the industry standard of 5 years between launch and delivery. 2020 launch for 2025 delivery follows standard practice in the industry.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:37 pm

Revelation wrote:

Muillenberg made the point that NMA is set up to take people as they roll off the 77X program and that is what seems to be happening, with or without a formal program launch.


If you assume the hardest thing on NMA is figuring out how to build the fuselage due to it's possible unconventional design - something that Boeing may have been working on since 2011 when they were expected to use a 7W Oval based on patent filings - doesn't 1,000 people focusing on that now make sense?

The Engineers from the 777X from Boeing's standpoint were mainly working on the new Wing.

The Wing for 777x is now done (although it could need to be modded based on testing results) - I'm sure they could have given the basics of the wing of the NMA to the Fuselage people and now they can focus
on detailed design. It should not take that long given I would have to guess NMA is a scaled down 777x wing.

I would also have to guess NMA will be scaled down 787 systems architecture - lots of Boeing Engineers with experience on that.

Other than the Fuselage (which could have had People working on it for the past 8-10 years) what other moonshot technologies in the NMA need to be figured out?

Probably the biggest constraints will be the production system and the engines. Everything else should be relatively easy or already very far along. 2025 seems totally doable.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:01 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Just a few weeks ago you were sure about the launch at Paris.

Feel free to show me where I said I was sure NMA would launch at Paris.

I won't spend Googling for 2 hours. Many in the press got caught up in hope and breaking news about exited airlines, Udvar, Delta, thus Paris 2019 was a go. Now reality is kicking in again. Some are trying to change the topic, generalizing, taking side lanes. :wink2:

You won't spend such time searching, because you won't find such a post.

It's a well known debating tactic to exaggerate someone else's position and hope no one calls them on it.

The only constant is that you are locked in to the FUD narrative, except for those posts where you admitted the NMA program is "a go".

I wouldn't call that a side lane, I'd call that the opposite lane.

At least you will be covered when "reality" kicks in...
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Feel free to show me where I said I was sure NMA would launch at Paris.

I won't spend Googling for 2 hours. Many in the press got caught up in hope and breaking news about exited airlines, Udvar, Delta, thus Paris 2019 was a go. Now reality is kicking in again. Some are trying to change the topic, generalizing, taking side lanes. :wink2:

You won't spend such time searching, because you won't find such a post.

It's a well known debating tactic to exaggerate someone else's position and hope no one calls them on it.

The only constant is that you are locked in to the FUD narrative, except for those posts where you admitted the NMA program is "a go".

I wouldn't call that a side lane, I'd call that the opposite lane.

At least you will be covered when "reality" kicks in...


:rotfl:

It think this latest delay on the 797 will create some interesting debate. First tiers have been spending engineering hours / making proposals during the last 12 months..

I wouldn't be surprised if someone at Boeing stopped the music, opened the doors to let in the wind, lighted the tubes and decided to hold the horses. Have a fresh look at the market, listen, UTC, MAX, NSA, NMA, NEO, A220, EJets, and where the industry seem to be going next 2 decades, listen..

Image

The "ideal" oval 2-3-2 cross section has been with us for 16 years now. :hypnotized: In a time the believe in composites as the solution for about everything was strong.

Image
http://www.patentbuddy.com/Patent/6616100

Since then people have been telling this each other so often, dismissing any question, they maybe became blinded by the mantra. I would totally understand if Boeing checks if older assumptions still fit the business case today..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:16 pm

keesje wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if someone at Boeing opened the doors to let the fresh wind blow through, stopped the music, lighted the tubes and decided to take a step back. Have a fresh look at the market, UTC, MAX, NSA, NMA, NEO, A220, EJets, and where the industry seem to be going next 2 decades.

Right, because this fits the narrative you've been pushing all along. Meanwhile, 1,000 Boeing employees and the "first tiers" keep churning away, looking forward to whatever "reality" unfolds.
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mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if someone at Boeing opened the doors to let the fresh wind blow through, stopped the music, lighted the tubes and decided to take a step back. Have a fresh look at the market, UTC, MAX, NSA, NMA, NEO, A220, EJets, and where the industry seem to be going next 2 decades.

Right, because this fits the narrative you've been pushing all along. Meanwhile, 1,000 Boeing employees and the "first tiers" keep churning away, looking forward to whatever "reality" unfolds.


And it fits your narrative that delaying a launch is a good sign.

IMO the management at Boeing just does not manage to put a business case together, that does convince the board to let the permission to offer go forward.
 
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william
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:50 pm

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
I won't spend Googling for 2 hours. Many in the press got caught up in hope and breaking news about exited airlines, Udvar, Delta, thus Paris 2019 was a go. Now reality is kicking in again. Some are trying to change the topic, generalizing, taking side lanes. :wink2:

You won't spend such time searching, because you won't find such a post.

It's a well known debating tactic to exaggerate someone else's position and hope no one calls them on it.

The only constant is that you are locked in to the FUD narrative, except for those posts where you admitted the NMA program is "a go".

I wouldn't call that a side lane, I'd call that the opposite lane.

At least you will be covered when "reality" kicks in...


:rotfl:

It think this latest delay on the 797 will create some interesting debate. First tiers have been spending engineering hours / making proposals during the last 12 months..

I wouldn't be surprised if someone at Boeing stopped the music, opened the doors to let in the wind, lighted the tubes and decided to hold the horses. Have a fresh look at the market, listen, UTC, MAX, NSA, NMA, NEO, A220, EJets, and where the industry seem to be going next 2 decades, listen..

Image

The "ideal" oval 2-3-2 cross section has been with us for 16 years now. :hypnotized: In a time the believe in composites as the solution for about everything was strong.

Image
http://www.patentbuddy.com/Patent/6616100

Since then people have been telling this each other so often, dismissing any question, they maybe became blinded by the mantra. I would totally understand if Boeing checks if older assumptions still fit the business case today..


Keegse, you are making me dizzy? What is your point? That the 797 is vaporware and will not be built?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:52 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
And it fits your narrative that delaying a launch is a good sign.

It seems you simply cannot resist the urge to put words into my mouth that I've never said, even after I called you out for doing so.

mjoelnir wrote:
IMO the management at Boeing just does not manage to put a business case together, that does convince the board to let the permission to offer go forward.

Yep, and it may never go forward. It's a hard business case to make.

Jon Ostrower's take (and mine too, see link in earlier post) is the time is being used to squeeze concessions out of the supply chain.

To do that, you need to not launch the product till you get the concessions you want, otherwise you have no leverage.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:49 pm

Revelation wrote:

Jon Ostrower's take (and mine too, see link in earlier post) is the time is being used to squeeze concessions out of the supply chain.

To do that, you need to not launch the product till you get the concessions you want, otherwise you have no leverage.


And to squeeze them lemons until no juice is left you need to actually find a lemon tree first. Suppliers know that Boeing needs "support" in order to get this off the ground. So actually imho the Boeing negotiating position is rather weak.

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JayinKitsap
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:13 pm

Boeing seems to be on the tack of doing the design in house for many of the components. Then they will go get bids on the actual parts production. Boeing had done a generation of outsourcing, that peaked with the 787 where having 2nd & 3rd tier doing a good chunk of the design, well that was an #epic #fail. Spirit was part of Boeing some 20 years ago, will they be building structure? Right now the 787 barrels I believe all are being built in CHS, no longer flights to Italy and Japan for barrel parts. So they can be later in getting those bids as the design will be done.

The NMA is important on getting the NSA right, for that reason alone I see it will proceed. To be a success it only needs to be a 10/month rate plane. Boeing was jumped by Airbus with the NEO, right at a time it was bleeding bad from a botched 787 introduction. Boeing would love to return the favor.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:14 pm

The numbers bandied about for development of a NMA have been most often $15 billion. Does anyone have a guess for how much of that they will have spent now and also by the end of the year? Even if it were $4 billion and a decision for a no-go it would be far cheaper than the cock-up in R and D, and deferred production costs for the 787. If we were to assume a 7 year from initiation to EIS, some of that time could be ascribed to 2018 and 2019.

I continue to believe that Boeing has to go ahead with one new model in the next few/several(?) years. Building civilian planes is the biggest part of their business, and while the MAX and 777X are impressive they both have their limitations (MAX in capability and X in size of the niche). It could be said that for Airbus the 320/350 may well be in their primo time, whereas Boeing only has the 787 in primo.
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Areopagus
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:59 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Yellowstone project Y1, Y2 and Y3. Y2 with first the Sonic Cruiser, never launched, but morphed into the 787.


The Sonic Cruiser was Glacier, not Yellowstone.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:43 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Jon Ostrower's take (and mine too, see link in earlier post) is the time is being used to squeeze concessions out of the supply chain.

To do that, you need to not launch the product till you get the concessions you want, otherwise you have no leverage.

And to squeeze them lemons until no juice is left you need to actually find a lemon tree first. Suppliers know that Boeing needs "support" in order to get this off the ground. So actually imho the Boeing negotiating position is rather weak.

IMHO suppliers can connect the dots: getting on NMA means you probably get on to NSA, not getting on NMA means you probably don't get on NSA. If you don't get on NSA and you're already a part of the Boeing MAX ecosystem you're going to have a hard time making your revenue projections in the second half of the next decade, and leave an opportunity for a new entrant. That's a lot of leverage, IMHO.

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texl1649
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:39 pm

I agree Revelation, but the fly in the ointment is that there aren’t many execs that really care/think 5+ years ahead at any tiered suppliers.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:18 am

QuarkFly wrote:
seahawk wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
Hmmm...Launch now in 2020. That means entry in service likely would be closer to 2027. The last 767 passenger and 757's will be mostly gone by then.

Trouble singing up launch customers? Or maybe waiting out a A321XLR and forcing Airbus hand?...Newer A321 versions do not make sense if delayed much longer. Both A and B still have to think about offering a new single-isle after 2025

NMA was always a risky market segment...still a possiblity it will never fly?


No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Even if they launched this year...no way can a 2025 EIS happen -- that is marketing goals. The engine actually may be the major time long-pole, A certified 50 klb engine is only in OEM's wet dreams as of now.

No production facilities started or time critical engine development is going to occur until after official launch if it happens in 2020 (or ever!). New aircraft need at least a year of certification flying...you can't launch in 2020 and fly by 2024. Best case EIS is late 2026...more likely 2027 and full rate production closer to 2030.


2025 seems realistic to me. Look at the 747 program. And we have come a long way since then.
 
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flee
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:52 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
seahawk wrote:
No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Even if they launched this year...no way can a 2025 EIS happen -- that is marketing goals. The engine actually may be the major time long-pole, A certified 50 klb engine is only in OEM's wet dreams as of now.

No production facilities started or time critical engine development is going to occur until after official launch if it happens in 2020 (or ever!). New aircraft need at least a year of certification flying...you can't launch in 2020 and fly by 2024. Best case EIS is late 2026...more likely 2027 and full rate production closer to 2030.

2025 seems realistic to me. Look at the 747 program. And we have come a long way since then.

The standards were much lower in those days and the 747-100 was more or less of prototype standard (by today's standards) when it was delivered. The PW engines were problematic and under powered too.

I think any NMA can EIS only when the engines are ready. The airframe is probably the easiest part.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:37 am

The mythical snake oil plane that will cure all size gap ills and put Airbus out of business, continues to be elusive, I see.

Even better is that Boeing apparently slowed down development to confuse Airbus, so they don't know what to respond to, truly genius stuff. At least with all this, no one is talking about the 737-900/ER/9/10's crappy sales compared to its competitor.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:51 am

crimsonchin wrote:
The mythical snake oil plane that will cure all size gap ills and put Airbus out of business, continues to be elusive, I see.

Even better is that Boeing apparently slowed down development to confuse Airbus, so they don't know what to respond to, truly genius stuff. At least with all this, no one is talking about the 737-900/ER/9/10's crappy sales compared to its competitor.


Is this how you are enjoying your retirement Mr Leahy?
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:38 pm

william wrote:
keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
You won't spend such time searching, because you won't find such a post.

It's a well known debating tactic to exaggerate someone else's position and hope no one calls them on it.

The only constant is that you are locked in to the FUD narrative, except for those posts where you admitted the NMA program is "a go".

I wouldn't call that a side lane, I'd call that the opposite lane.

At least you will be covered when "reality" kicks in...


:rotfl:

It think this latest delay on the 797 will create some interesting debate. First tiers have been spending engineering hours / making proposals during the last 12 months..

I wouldn't be surprised if someone at Boeing stopped the music, opened the doors to let in the wind, lighted the tubes and decided to hold the horses. Have a fresh look at the market, listen, UTC, MAX, NSA, NMA, NEO, A220, EJets, and where the industry seem to be going next 2 decades, listen..

Image

The "ideal" oval 2-3-2 cross section has been with us for 16 years now. :hypnotized: In a time the believe in composites as the solution for about everything was strong.

Image
http://www.patentbuddy.com/Patent/6616100

Since then people have been telling this each other so often, dismissing any question, they maybe became blinded by the mantra. I would totally understand if Boeing checks if older assumptions still fit the business case today..


Keegse, you are making me dizzy? What is your point? That the 797 is vaporware and will not be built?


:smile: to summarize: that Boeings next project might look significantly different than most believe today. Things, insights changed over the last 5 years. Maybe DennisM stopped singing along & asks some stringent questions, that, maybe, should have been put on the table earlier.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:47 pm

keesje wrote:

:smile: to summarize: that Boeings next project might look significantly different than most believe today. Things, insights changed over the last 5 years. Maybe DennisM stopped singing along & asks some stringent questions, that, maybe, should have been put on the table earlier.


Do you have any evidence to backup the statement that it will look significantly different than what most believe or are you using the word “might” to absolve you of requiring any facts to backup your pontification?

Facts tend to get in the way of hyperbole and one fact is that 2025 delivery has been mentioned by Boeing every time they refer to this airplane. Far more likely scenario is where the board gives authority to offer this year, which allows a large number of commitments when they launch and the information leaked so far turns out to be true and that the plane follows the industry standard schedule of 5 years from launch to delivery.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:24 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
... the plane follows the industry standard schedule of 5 years from launch to delivery.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Facts tend to get in the way of hyperbole


The 787, A350, A380, 777X .. 7-8 years seems a more factual "industry schedule of launch to delivery". Feel free to do the math for a 2020 launch and miraclously creatively end up with EIS 2025, because Boeing said so. :wave:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:59 pm

Rumors are Boeing started spending big on the NMA in 2018 - and by my 1st grade arithmetic 2025 delivery could be as long as 8 and in eight years after start. Marketing started even a few years earlier.

Straw man, Airbus surely will die if NMA is a real success, no one has said nor believes that. Airbus has products that have sold, have backorders going into the mid 20s, and enough money to build another model (not quite as much as Boeing, but enough - esp. as they work on improving manufacturing).

One possible big mistake they made - the 330 CEO is obviously one of the greatest designs meeting market demand ever. But didn't one of our posters suggest that the NEO should have been a smaller lighter plane?
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:09 pm

seahawk wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
Hmmm...Launch now in 2020. That means entry in service likely would be closer to 2027. The last 767 passenger and 757's will be mostly gone by then.

Trouble singing up launch customers? Or maybe waiting out a A321XLR and forcing Airbus hand?...Newer A321 versions do not make sense if delayed much longer. Both A and B still have to think about offering a new single-isle after 2025

NMA was always a risky market segment...still a possiblity it will never fly?


No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Given the constant statement by Boeing that they are working on the Business Case then your view it is a must have is a kool aid one. If Airlines were really saying that, at economics Boeing could deliver then the business case would not be an issue.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:20 pm

StTim wrote:
seahawk wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
Hmmm...Launch now in 2020. That means entry in service likely would be closer to 2027. The last 767 passenger and 757's will be mostly gone by then.

Trouble singing up launch customers? Or maybe waiting out a A321XLR and forcing Airbus hand?...Newer A321 versions do not make sense if delayed much longer. Both A and B still have to think about offering a new single-isle after 2025

NMA was always a risky market segment...still a possiblity it will never fly?


No, as the development is much more advanced than usual. Boeing will make 2025. The 797 is already the buzz in the industry, I would not be surprised to see it sell like the 787 before launch. It is a "must have" for airlines.


Given the constant statement by Boeing that they are working on the Business Case then your view it is a must have is a kool aid one. If Airlines were really saying that, at economics Boeing could deliver then the business case would not be an issue.


There is a difference between finding interest from airlines and optimizing your product and the production process so much that your margins will be sufficient.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:05 pm

Nope. EIS most likely ~2027 from a 2020 launch. Also if Boeing claims 2025. Sorry. Nothing to doubt the usual 7 years: pdr's, cdr's, design freeze, production engineering, setting up supply chains, new engine, iron bird, software development & integration, static test frame, production building 5 proto's, 1 year+ long flight testing, first delivery.
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:10 pm

keesje wrote:
Nope. EIS most likely ~2027 from a 2020 launch. Also if Boeing claims 2025. Sorry. Nothing to doubt the usual 7 years: pdr's, cdr's, design freeze, production engineering, setting up supply chains, new engine, iron bird, software development & integration, static test frame, production building 5 proto's, 1 year+ long flight testing, first delivery.


As the head of the Boeing design team and their commercial sales CEO, you should know.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:58 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
The mythical snake oil plane that will cure all size gap ills and put Airbus out of business, continues to be elusive, I see.

Even better is that Boeing apparently slowed down development to confuse Airbus, so they don't know what to respond to, truly genius stuff. At least with all this, no one is talking about the 737-900/ER/9/10's crappy sales compared to its competitor.


And yet here we are, ending 2018 with Boeing selling more planes than Airbus, delivering more planes than Airbus, and making more money than Airbus.

I’m not sure why you throw so much hyperbole into it but maybe you’re just angry that Boeing’s inferior product line somehow keeps chugging along?

Each builder has their lemons and do their best to make lemonade. Give ‘em both credit for trying.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
Another reason could be the one you suggest: Boeing knows it cannot make money building the product so is going through the motions just to keep pressure on the competition.

Honestly do not understand this one, the big gap in Boeing's line up is in the 757 space, the 737-900XXXX in any version struggles.
So by talking about the NMA / MOM / NSA replacement is putting pressure on Airbus selling A321-XXXX in any variant?

I go with the other one, they are keeping pressure on their suppliers, since they are going to be the first movers, the more they wait the more market share Airbus gets with the A321 so as they delay, I am more on the side that they cannot make the business case and this project will eventually in a few years time morph into the 737 replacement, so 10 to 20 years out.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:29 pm

Keep the thread on topic. No one is forcing users to discuss this topic, so please keep flamebait and off topic posts out of the discussion.

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Newbiepilot
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Nope. EIS most likely ~2027 from a 2020 launch. Also if Boeing claims 2025. Sorry. Nothing to doubt the usual 7 years: pdr's, cdr's, design freeze, production engineering, setting up supply chains, new engine, iron bird, software development & integration, static test frame, production building 5 proto's, 1 year+ long flight testing, first delivery.


I believe it is entirely logical that having a thousand engineers working in the program office for two years prior to launch would help the airplane have a realistic schedule between launch and delivery.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:39 pm

par13del wrote:
Honestly do not understand this one, the big gap in Boeing's line up is in the 757 space, the 737-900XXXX in any version struggles.
So by talking about the NMA / MOM / NSA replacement is putting pressure on Airbus selling A321-XXXX in any variant?

I'm not sure either because this is NOT my theory, but I imagine the theory is if Boeing is convinced no one can make money in the middle of the market they would want to use the false-flag NMA to prompt Airbus to invest heavily in an A322 with current gen tech so Boeing can then do NSA with next gen tech and undermine Airbus's A322 investment. Of course that depends on Airbus reaching the opposite conclusion, that the middle of the market is worth investing in, and putting so much investment into the A322 that it finds itself in a position where it could not respond. It really doesn't make sense.
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:45 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Nope. EIS most likely ~2027 from a 2020 launch. Also if Boeing claims 2025. Sorry. Nothing to doubt the usual 7 years: pdr's, cdr's, design freeze, production engineering, setting up supply chains, new engine, iron bird, software development & integration, static test frame, production building 5 proto's, 1 year+ long flight testing, first delivery.


I believe it is entirely logical that having a thousand engineers working in the program office for two years prior to launch would help the airplane have a realistic schedule between launch and delivery.


I wouldn’t hold my breath for 2025. The norm in many large projects these days seems to be to overpromise and bust the budget. No one is held accountable anyhow so there’s not much risk. Boeing could be playing cat and mouse or they could be struggling to close the case. Who knows? I think we here on a.net try too hard to draw these prediction lines in the sand because, like these big organizations, we aren’t held accountable and have little to lose anyhow.
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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:45 pm

keesje wrote:
Nope. EIS most likely ~2027 from a 2020 launch. Also if Boeing claims 2025. Sorry. Nothing to doubt the usual 7 years: pdr's, cdr's, design freeze, production engineering, setting up supply chains, new engine, iron bird, software development & integration, static test frame, production building 5 proto's, 1 year+ long flight testing, first delivery.



while i agree with you at this point given recent news an 2025 eis is unlikely, they have done fairly well in maintaining the schedule for the max and the 777x. a new type will obviously have more issues than a derivative, but i don't think it's impossible.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:53 pm

keesje wrote:
Nope. EIS most likely ~2027 from a 2020 launch. Also if Boeing claims 2025. Sorry. Nothing to doubt the usual 7 years: pdr's, cdr's, design freeze, production engineering, setting up supply chains, new engine, iron bird, software development & integration, static test frame, production building 5 proto's, 1 year+ long flight testing, first delivery.

So there is a law that states the public launch has to be 7 years before your EIS?

I'm just amazed that you think that a public launch has to be exactly 7 years before EIS and that it has to be launched before development starts.

Boeing can do the public launch 7 years before EIS with a paper plane.

Boeing can do the public launch 5 years before EIS with a heavily developed plane.

Boeing can do the public launch 3 years before EIS while the first aircraft is being assembled.

With a thousand engineers working on the 797 it had clearly passed the paper plane stage.

Airbus is simply going to take the 797 design scale it up in the photocopier by 5% and say "ME TOO!" Airbus did that with the 787. Airbus will then try and steal Boeings engines just like they did with Trent 7000 for the A330NEO.

Boeings public launch delay will allow them to have the market to themselves for additional years until the Airbus NMA arrives. The 797 engines will never appear on an Airbus aircraft, Boeing will prevent that from happening again in the contracts.
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:00 pm

Boeing could keep us all guessing and then surprise everyone with a public rollout of a flyable plane, only then making it public. There is no official timeline for such things.
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grbauc
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
And it fits your narrative that delaying a launch is a good sign.

It seems you simply cannot resist the urge to put words into my mouth that I've never said, even after I called you out for doing so.

mjoelnir wrote:
IMO the management at Boeing just does not manage to put a business case together, that does convince the board to let the permission to offer go forward.

Yep, and it may never go forward. It's a hard business case to make.

Jon Ostrower's take (and mine too, see link in earlier post) is the time is being used to squeeze concessions out of the supply chain.

To do that, you need to not launch the product till you get the concessions you want, otherwise you have no leverage.



I fully get your point and it doesn't seem unreasonable given the article and comment sense. They will lose leverage.

Why does it always have to be B against A OR A against B
 
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:46 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
The mythical snake oil plane that will cure all size gap ills and put Airbus out of business, continues to be elusive, I see.

Even better is that Boeing apparently slowed down development to confuse Airbus, so they don't know what to respond to, truly genius stuff. At least with all this, no one is talking about the 737-900/ER/9/10's crappy sales compared to its competitor.



GREAT post. If you don't like Boeing why post in a tread about Boeing? I don't go to AB tread and spew hate. I know plenty do, it would be nice if we could act like adults and not ruin this once great forum.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:35 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Boeing could keep us all guessing and then surprise everyone with a public rollout of a flyable plane, only then making it public. There is no official timeline for such things.

Exactly.

If I was Boeings CEO with the full support of my shareholders all of my products would be developed in secret with non disclosure agreements on my customers and suppliers. I would rollout a flyable plane at the official launch with multiple airlines CEO's standing beside me with a huge 1000+ order book.

The competition wouldn't know what hit them. My aircraft would be alone on the market for many years before the competitions reply became available.

With Boeings amazing financial situation they can easily fund the 797 without any deposits or official orders from airlines.
 
Lewton
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:51 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Boeing could keep us all guessing and then surprise everyone with a public rollout of a flyable plane, only then making it public. There is no official timeline for such things.

Exactly.

If I was Boeings CEO with the full support of my shareholders all of my products would be developed in secret with non disclosure agreements on my customers and suppliers. I would rollout a flyable plane at the official launch with multiple airlines CEO's standing beside me with a huge 1000+ order book.

The competition wouldn't know what hit them. My aircraft would be alone on the market for many years before the competitions reply became available.

With Boeings amazing financial situation they can easily fund the 797 without any deposits or official orders from airlines.

Would you lock up your engineers at the office without any access to social media for 5-6 years until the new amazing aircraft can fly?
How about the sales people and the buyers from airlines closing the deal for the huge 1000 order?

I guess there's a reason you're not Boeing's CEO. ;)
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:57 am

Lewton wrote:
Would you lock up your engineers at the office without any access to social media for 5-6 years until the new amazing aircraft can fly?
You do realise defense contractors have been keeping their mouth shut for decades. Countless black programs were flying without public knowledge. The engineers said nothing.

The same type of engineers will be working on the secret B-21 program as the 797. They don't put the trendy social media loving engineers on the civilian projects.


Lewton wrote:
How about the sales people and the buyers from airlines closing the deal for the huge 1000 order?

You assume negotiations must be done with huge groups of people just like how keesje assumes a launch must be done 7 years before EIS.

A billion dollar order can be placed with a simple handshake between CEO's. Reducing the number of people involved increases the chances of it being kept secret. If Boeing has a proven track record of providing reliable and game changing airframes the airlines will be happy to make a decision with fewer people involved on their end.
 
mham001
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:38 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The same type of engineers will be working on the secret B-21 program as the 797. They don't put the trendy social media loving engineers on the civilian projects.
.


Doesn't the fact that you know about the "secret B-21 program" contradict your argument?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:56 am

mham001 wrote:
Doesn't the fact that you know about the "secret B-21 program" contradict your argument?

Not at all.

All the details are secret. That is the level of secrecy you need. The B-21's size is even secret, people are guessing it will be smaller than the B-2 but no one really knows.

If that level of secrecy was used for the 797 then Airbus would not know if it was going to be a 100T 6ab aircraft, a 150T 7ab aircraft or a 200T lightweight 787. Airbus could not develop a counter until it was made public. Airbus would have to plan for multiple options to cover all potential 797 sizes costing them money and resources.
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