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atcsundevil
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St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:51 am

Please continue from last year's discussion.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1382577
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:45 pm

Any predictions out there for 2019?

I don't really have any, since most predictions on people make on a.net won't happen and at times don't even make sense to me. They are more like wild dreams than predictions.

Things I could see happen but I really wouldn't say I want to predict them since I don't feel strongly about any.

BOS added on a 2nd carrier.
TATL announcement of some sort (to start in 2020)
Spirit or JetBlue announce service
WN adds a few more unannounced destinations. No guesses on what they would be. Still think JAX is likely but now that they have their summer schedule out, I don't know if it would be added before the following spring.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:52 pm

None of my predictions ever come true for STL so I'll try a new approach:

EK will NOT begin DXB-STL.
LA will NOT begin LIM-STL.
OZ will NOT begin ICN-STL.
QF will NOT begin SYD-STL.

There. Prove me wrong a year from now! :cool2:

Still hoping for BA or EI or FI but alas, we always lose out to wherever else.
Next up: STL-ATL-NAS-ATL-STL. :cloudnine:
 
jplatts
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:08 am

Jshank83 wrote:
WN adds a few more unannounced destinations. No guesses on what they would be. Still think JAX is likely but now that they have their summer schedule out, I don't know if it would be added before the following spring.


In addition to STL-JAX, WN could also add STL-CLT, STL-CVG, STL-ORF, and STL-PVD nonstop service. WN could also bring back STL-SDF and STL-SLC nonstop service.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:38 am

Where's Jshank?
 
flybaby
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:51 am

Jshank83 wrote:
...
Still think JAX is likely but now that they have their summer schedule out, I don't know if it would be added before the following spring.


At least G4 is bringing back BLV-JAX in mid-February ;-)
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:45 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
None of my predictions ever come true for STL so I'll try a new approach:

EK will NOT begin DXB-STL.
LA will NOT begin LIM-STL.
OZ will NOT begin ICN-STL.
QF will NOT begin SYD-STL.

There. Prove me wrong a year from now! :cool2:

Still hoping for BA or EI or FI but alas, we always lose out to wherever else.


Haha, this made me laugh.

I think if we get TATL is is probably going to be one of those 3 you listed at the end (or Condor). Not sure what order I would put them in though. Fl is probably the only one that would still start service for 2019.
 
777PHX
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:01 am

I'm starting to think the biggest obstacle to getting a translant is the city and the airport itself. Not because the business case isn't there....
 
TNST3B
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:17 am

While I appreciate the coordinated effort by Anet to post new iterations of the threads, but it'll be kind of confusing seeing atcsundevil as the thread author instead of our fearless leader Jshank83,

As for what I'd like to see for STL in 2019... Spirit. I know, not what the typical avgeek would say, but I'm a sucker for ULCCs. I'd also like to see Jshank keep up his fantastic twitter account (@AviationStl ), which a good friend of mine called his favorite twitter account.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:55 am

TNST3B wrote:
While I appreciate the coordinated effort by Anet to post new iterations of the threads, but it'll be kind of confusing seeing atcsundevil as the thread author instead of our fearless leader Jshank83,

As for what I'd like to see for STL in 2019... Spirit. I know, not what the typical avgeek would say, but I'm a sucker for ULCCs. I'd also like to see Jshank keep up his fantastic twitter account (@AviationStl ), which a good friend of mine called his favorite twitter account.


Thanks for the kind words.

I, up until recently, have been pretty anti Spirit, but it seems like they have somewhat gotten their act together. Adding WiFi also helps my perception of them. I just really hope they add other destinations than the Florida ones we already have multiple carriers on.

777PHX wrote:
I'm starting to think the biggest obstacle to getting a translant is the city and the airport itself. Not because the business case isn't there....


Not enough businesses/organizations helping with incentives. The state won’t help like with IND/PIT/BNA. Makes it tough.
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:09 am

Will SY start serving STL year round and build up their brand recognition? Strange that they've been successful enough to double the number of flights to RSW this spring but not add anything past that for the busy summer vacation months.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:34 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Will SY start serving STL year round and build up their brand recognition? Strange that they've been successful enough to double the number of flights to RSW this spring but not add anything past that for the busy summer vacation months.


They haven't added anything else to MSN either. BNA only has MSP extended thru summer, so I keep thinking something is coming but they probably need to announce it soon.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:46 pm

Sun Country has to start adding to its fleet first. It just took delivery of its first owned plane.
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kipfilet
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:10 pm

TNST3B wrote:
While I appreciate the coordinated effort by Anet to post new iterations of the threads, but it'll be kind of confusing seeing atcsundevil as the thread author instead of our fearless leader Jshank83,

As for what I'd like to see for STL in 2019... Spirit. I know, not what the typical avgeek would say, but I'm a sucker for ULCCs. I'd also like to see Jshank keep up his fantastic twitter account (@AviationStl ), which a good friend of mine called his favorite twitter account.


Wow, had no idea about that twitter account. Following immediately.
I for one really hope for TATL, preferably on a *A carrier ;)
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:18 pm

For 2019-

Sun Country - I see the possibility of extended operational days and perhaps the addition of another city - probably Vegas or Orlando, a low hanging fruit grab. Sun Country growth would be slow but the progress is there and since they are in a growth and exploration mode, if I'm in STL management, courting them is number 3 on my list.

Spirit - *IF* Sun Country holds back from expanding its fortunes, I can see Spirit coming in. They're adding new planes to the network and they need somewhere to fly them. Their AirTran-centric management has done a good job of grabbing up old fortunes they made work with the former network. While another carrier would be nice, I don't see it being too crazy - probably the traditional Vegas and Orlando to start.

Southwest - they've made the effort to expand their `real estate' in STL so it would be very surprising to see them not do *SOMETHING* this year. STL has proven to be one of their strong markets so I can see them doing some sort of advertising push for Hawaii service leading to a frequency increase to one of their HI future gateways, perhaps year around to Oakland. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add at least 2, if not 3 frequencies. It's just a matter of how they come in - either a new city or boosting existing services. I don't think any one would complain with either/or.

Delta - Boston service is ripe for the picking here. However, I see service being announced this year, the later part of this year for new services to begin at some point and time in 2020, with at least one of the frequencies or two timed to meld right into TATL services on them and their partners. I see this in lieu of a wished for JFK service. I'm not sure of their gate situation as I believe I have read they are maxed out but how about RDU?

Aer Lingus - would love to see it and think it could work. Aer Lingus has a great network out of Dublin and has more reliability to get you from Point A to Point B than Wow Air. Four weekly to start announced at the end of 2019 for spring/summer 2020. While their cabin service doesn't come with all the perks and freebies you get with some other carriers it's pretty solid. If I'm in management at STL, this would be my number 1.


So, at this point - Aer Lingus is number 1, Sun Country is number 3.....coming in at number 2 of my priorities if I was STL management - the passenger experience. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of announcements or programs come this year to improve the passenger experience ... anything in terms of concessions to departure and arrival drop offs and pick ups. IND and MDW have been my prime gateways for the past couple of years so I'll hold off on trying to get too specific. For a number of years STL saw benefits in people driving 2-3 hours to use the airport and avoid other, outlier airports with higher fares and "crap" facilities. That's not so much the case any more and STL could always benefit from stepping up the game.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:12 pm

stlgph wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of announcements or programs come this year to improve the passenger experience ... anything in terms of concessions to departure and arrival drop offs and pick ups..


I agree with this.

Now that the T2 route study is done and they have presented options to the airport commission I think we will see a new a drop off/pick up plan in the next couple months. Might even be as soon as next weeks meeting.
The T2 baggage expansion expansion (although probably a couple years from being totally complete) will also be a nice upgrade
I still am curious to see what the new concession opening in March will be in T2. They have been building out amenities in the E29-33 gate region, so that has been good to see. Starbucks, 3 Kings Pub(which I think was a big improvement on restaurant options, although their service still needs work), Wingtips, STL Marketplace, and now the new fast service restaurant will have filled out that area.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:16 pm

Updated my frequency spreadsheet for Feb. It is listed as Feb 11 but a few airlines have frequency changes in the middle of that week so I put in the numbers for the after change frequencies.

Only thing that isn't updated is that I don't know the details of the Fort Leonard Wood airline change from Cape to Contour. They are supposed to announce the details next week. I will update then.

No real big changes from Jan
WN adds a MDW takes away a RSW.
UA goes all RJ :roll:
AA has a bunch of changes up and down but only changes by about 1 extra flight a day (12 total extra a week) overall.

YOY compare per week
WN +41 (6.1%)
DL +17 (9.7%)
F9 +2 (5.7%)
AC +1 (5.2%)
G4 -1 (-5%)
AS -1 (-7.1%)
UA -8 (-4.2%)
AA -13 (-4.9)

Total per week
WN 712
AA 255
DL 192
UA 181
F9 37
AC 20
G4 19
AS 13
SY 6

Total for STL 1,598 +40 (+2.5%)
Subject to change after the Fort Leonard Wood change

Full document
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:32 pm

Nuts that UA is all RJs. You would think at least one mainline to EWR, ORD, SFO, IAH.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:47 pm

A few January notes:

Volaris takes over charter flying for Swift. First flights are Jan 19 to HUX and Jan 20 to Cabo.
except Frontier takes over PUJ (also selling tickets on the side). Starts Jan 5.
WW rides off into the sunset on the 7th.

It will be cool seeing a new INTL airline here, even if it is just a charter.
 
jrkmsp
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:38 pm

It's strange to me that STL-DTW on Delta is back to being all RJ. Sure seems like it could support some mainline service. I guess they're trying to flow more connections over MSP?
 
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Runway28L
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:42 pm

Absolutely mind-blowing that UA flies zero mainline into STL, especially when peer cities have been getting equipment upgrades.

Surely they can't be that weak in the St. Louis market??
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OzarkD9S
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:47 pm

jrkmsp wrote:

It's strange to me that STL-DTW on Delta is back to being all RJ. Sure seems like it could support some mainline service. I guess they're trying to flow more connections over MSP?


Be careful opening the DTW can of worms on here ;) . Seriously though I've flown STL-DTW-XXX a few times and the oldest flight was a DC-9-50, then the 717 and the last one was a CR9 last year. Don't know if means much but I have been noticing more STL-LGA-Northeast US options recently vs. DTW a few years ago. And of course there's always a plethora of ATL options heading east (and west!) on DL out of STL.

My last trip to PWM in Sept of '18 was DTW on the way out and LGA on the way back, due to the flight times that worked best for me. Options are a plus and the CR9 is no biggie for the short STL-DTW sector.
Next up: STL-ATL-NAS-ATL-STL. :cloudnine:
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:50 pm

Runway28L wrote:

Absolutely mind-blowing that UA flies zero mainline into STL, especially when peer cities have been getting equipment upgrades.

Surely they can't be that weak in the St. Louis market??


One of the issues with UA and STL is that Trans States and Go Jet, 2 UAX carriers are based in STL, so we get tons of those.
Next up: STL-ATL-NAS-ATL-STL. :cloudnine:
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:02 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
Runway28L wrote:

Absolutely mind-blowing that UA flies zero mainline into STL, especially when peer cities have been getting equipment upgrades.

Surely they can't be that weak in the St. Louis market??


One of the issues with UA and STL is that Trans States and Go Jet, 2 UAX carriers are based in STL, so we get tons of those.


I would argue they are weak in the STL market because of all the RJs.

I would totally understand them all if it was mostly TSA and Go jet flying the flights but it isn't.

EWR none of either. All 135/45s on expressjet and commutair.
DEN 2 skywest 200s
IAD none of either. 1 135/45 on commuteair, 2 200's on air wisconsin
IAH 3 135/45 on expressjet
ORD 3 200s skywest/air wisconsin


I don't mind RJs if they are 700/900/175 but the amount of non TSA 135/45s they put here is crazy imo. 5x daily to EWR and all 145s? Can't they run it 4x and have 2 flights on a bigger RJ. It would be the same seats.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:38 pm

I remember living in STL and having United flying near hourly 145s between ORD and STL. I wont lie, I always enjoyed the "easy on, easy off" boarding process you get with the 50 seater 145 jets....made it all the better to hop up to Chicago a few times during the year for museums, christmas shopping, and other assorted day trips.

UA in STL now is pretty much the same as to what happened at IND - when UA/CO pooled together and pretty much just continued what they had built up without any major innovations to the service. CO was pretty much all ERJ to CLE/IAH/EWR and that hasn't changed much, although I remember the occasional 737 and 757 coming in.
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OzarkD9S
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:43 pm

Jshank83 wrote:

I would totally understand them all if it was mostly TSA and Go jet flying the flights but it isn't.

EWR none of either. All 135/45s on expressjet and commutair.
DEN 2 skywest 200s
IAD none of either. 1 135/45 on commuteair, 2 200's on air wisconsin
IAH 3 135/45 on expressjet
ORD 3 200s skywest/air wisconsin


I don't mind RJs if they are 700/900/175 but the amount of non TSA 135/45s they put here is crazy imo. 5x daily to EWR and all 145s? Can't they run it 4x and have 2 flights on a bigger RJ. It would be the same seats.


I guess they're going for frequency rather than gauge. But SFO on an E-jet (if it still operates) is nice enough comfort wise but I flew on one from MIA to STL on AA and I swear that flight took FOREVER! Or maybe I was just tired after a 5 hour layover in MIA. Historically though, UA has never really committed to STL, when they first came in here it was from ORD and DEN with nothing like the frequency we see today but it WAS mainline.
Next up: STL-ATL-NAS-ATL-STL. :cloudnine:
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:25 pm

Cape air is still selling tickets after the date contour said they would start. It is rather surprising that an airline change would occur just a month in advance. Hmm...
 
jplatts
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:43 am

stlgph wrote:
For 2019-

Delta - Boston service is ripe for the picking here. However, I see service being announced this year, the later part of this year for new services to begin at some point and time in 2020, with at least one of the frequencies or two timed to meld right into TATL services on them and their partners. I see this in lieu of a wished for JFK service. I'm not sure of their gate situation as I believe I have read they are maxed out but how about RDU?


I agree that STL-BOS could be added by DL since (a) DL already serves BOS nonstop from CVG, CMH, DTW, IND, MCI, MKE, and MSP in the Midwest, (b) DL has already announced plans to serve BOS nonstop from ORD and CLE in the Midwest starting in Fall 2019, and (c) DL is still expanding its BOS operation.

DL could also add STL-SEA nonstop service since (a) STL is one of the top destinations traveled to from SEA that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from SEA, (b) DL already serves SEA from other Midwestern cities such as ORD, CVG, DTW, IND, MCI, MKE, and MSP, and (c) DL had added new nonstop routes out of SEA during the last 2 years.
 
jrkmsp
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:02 am

jplatts wrote:
stlgph wrote:
For 2019-

Delta - Boston service is ripe for the picking here. However, I see service being announced this year, the later part of this year for new services to begin at some point and time in 2020, with at least one of the frequencies or two timed to meld right into TATL services on them and their partners. I see this in lieu of a wished for JFK service. I'm not sure of their gate situation as I believe I have read they are maxed out but how about RDU?


I agree that STL-BOS could be added by DL since (a) DL already serves BOS nonstop from CVG, CMH, DTW, IND, MCI, MKE, and MSP in the Midwest, (b) DL has already announced plans to serve BOS nonstop from ORD and CLE in the Midwest starting in Fall 2019, and (c) DL is still expanding its BOS operation.

DL could also add STL-SEA nonstop service since (a) STL is one of the top destinations traveled to from SEA that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from SEA, (b) DL already serves SEA from other Midwestern cities such as ORD, CVG, DTW, IND, MCI, MKE, and MSP, and (c) DL had added new nonstop routes out of SEA during the last 2 years.


STL-BOS seems like a no-brainer, but agree it's more likely for spring/summer 2020, given that Delta just made a big announcement for fall 2019 flights. With Delta taking all of terminal A at BOS, there's room for more flights. I'm not clear, however, how much room Delta has to add flights at STL, however...

And STL-SEA is just a matter of time, though it may not come soon.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:23 am

stl07 wrote:
Cape air is still selling tickets after the date contour said they would start. It is rather surprising that an airline change would occur just a month in advance. Hmm...


It happened with the EAS routes last year also that ended/changed. They kept selling them really close to the end date for dates they weren’t going to fly. Not sure why they keep selling them if they pretty much know they won’t fly them, unless they transfer them over or something. At least I assume one isn’t going to just fly it at risk. Something to keep An eye on though.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:37 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

I would totally understand them all if it was mostly TSA and Go jet flying the flights but it isn't.

EWR none of either. All 135/45s on expressjet and commutair.
DEN 2 skywest 200s
IAD none of either. 1 135/45 on commuteair, 2 200's on air wisconsin
IAH 3 135/45 on expressjet
ORD 3 200s skywest/air wisconsin


I don't mind RJs if they are 700/900/175 but the amount of non TSA 135/45s they put here is crazy imo. 5x daily to EWR and all 145s? Can't they run it 4x and have 2 flights on a bigger RJ. It would be the same seats.


I guess they're going for frequency rather than gauge. But SFO on an E-jet (if it still operates) is nice enough comfort wise but I flew on one from MIA to STL on AA and I swear that flight took FOREVER! Or maybe I was just tired after a 5 hour layover in MIA. Historically though, UA has never really committed to STL, when they first came in here it was from ORD and DEN with nothing like the frequency we see today but it WAS mainline.


I’ve flown the SFO-STL route on their E175. I liked it more than a mainline. AA has less leg room on theirs than DL/UA.

I get the frequency argument to a point but once you get up to 6 and all on 50 seaters I think going to 5 and putting in a few bigger planes is going to do more for you, especially to New York. But I don’t run an airline, so what do I know. Haha. I agree with you that they don’t really commit here. At least they are running a mainline to Houston for part of the winter. I have a flight back from AUS booked on WN but I’m thinking about switching to UA just to fly them and it’s actually on mainlines.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 7:34 pm

Had a chance to look through some Satellite imagery archives this afternoon. It looks like C29 got a jet bridge sometimes between 10/27 and 11/6. I knew they were redoing that area and had bids out to put in jet bridges but they all included just doing electrical work on C29 for a what I thought was a future bridge, I didn't realize they were installing one before that though.

Also had an image of 2 Wow planes parked on 11/22. Must have been the one that had the incident with the WN plane.

Someone also built a new hanger over by where Signiture has their hanger. Not sure who. Looks to be about finished.

I also noticed trans states has moved all their airplanes they had stored behind the building out. I guess they are all going into service now?
 
ultrapig
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:54 pm

I find the endless talk about TATL flights from St. Louis very interesting. Sure alot of people fly go to London from St. Louis but obviously not a plane full a day. If you were to get a non-stop to LHR, CDG , DUB or FRT. most of the passengers would connect. That's one stop service to most of Europe but we already have one stop service to virtually all of Europe through ORD, EWR, JFK etc. Its just not a big deal. It would be a big deal if we had 300-500 people a day going to one of the big European cities but we don't.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:58 pm

Could DL drop STL-CVG and replace it with RDU? Both hubs are near each other in terms of flights, and STL-CVG loads are frequently in the 50s. I would think the first think they would add would be BOS.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:02 pm

ultrapig wrote:
I find the endless talk about TATL flights from St. Louis very interesting. Sure alot of people fly go to London from St. Louis but obviously not a plane full a day. If you were to get a non-stop to LHR, CDG , DUB or FRT. most of the passengers would connect. That's one stop service to most of Europe but we already have one stop service to virtually all of Europe through ORD, EWR, JFK etc. Its just not a big deal. It would be a big deal if we had 300-500 people a day going to one of the big European cities but we don't.


Sure, but some cities (like IND, PIT, etc.) have made getting and keeping TATL service a point of pride, growing out their industry. The ability to say "[our city] has daily TATL service" certainly helps make a case for a business to grow in that city (I'm thinking Monsanto/Bayer) and grow out the number of pax traveling to Europe daily. If CVG, PIT, IND, and CHS can get TATL service, I'm sure that we can. As someone mentioned upthread ,the only thing preventing additional service is the airport itself; they have not been too proactive.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:08 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
It's strange to me that STL-DTW on Delta is back to being all RJ. Sure seems like it could support some mainline service. I guess they're trying to flow more connections over MSP?


Delta seems to switch lots of flights back and forth between RJs. SLC is currently all RJ (I flew out and back on CRJ-900s), but it occasionally gets mainline frequencies (at the beginning of last year it had quite a few A319s/A320s, it had MD-90s later, and is scheduled to have 717s in summer 2019). Detroit has frequently switched back and forth as well; if I'm not mistaken, MSP has gotten more mainline. Also, the day that DL puts RJs on STL-ATL is the day St. Louis dies :D
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:10 pm

ultrapig wrote:
I find the endless talk about TATL flights from St. Louis very interesting. Sure alot of people fly go to London from St. Louis but obviously not a plane full a day. If you were to get a non-stop to LHR, CDG , DUB or FRT. most of the passengers would connect. That's one stop service to most of Europe but we already have one stop service to virtually all of Europe through ORD, EWR, JFK etc. Its just not a big deal. It would be a big deal if we had 300-500 people a day going to one of the big European cities but we don't.


Although I mostly agree with your point... We don't have flights to JFK, which cuts down on some of the one stop options. I went to Athens last year. There weren't any one stop options for when I wanted to go (since we don't have a JFK flight) so I went to AMS instead and took a side trip to Greece in the middle of it. Not saying we have a ton of people going to Greece every day (or month) but it would open up one stop options. My wife's company has a major office in southern France. They have to take two stops to get there, but it would be one if we had a TATL flight. I am sure there is some percent that would have 2 stops cut down to 1 to some secondary European cities. It wouldn't need to be a daily flight so if you did it 4x or 5x a week you could just compress some of those travelers into those days to help fill it.

For some people it wouldn't matter and they would continue to make their stop in the USA. At least coming back I would rather go thru customs in STL than I would New York, so that would be nice to have the TATL park from here instead of somewhere else. Is it the end of the world that we don't have a TATL flight, no, but it would be a good thing for the business community to have it and just for the cities profile in general.

WOW/Icelandair flights in my mind really don't do anything for us because they don't add any one stop cities. WOW was nice to have because it was cheap but logistically didn't add anything for the business community or cutting down airport time. If we are talking those two airlines then I entirely agree with you.
 
jplatts
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:55 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
Could DL drop STL-CVG and replace it with RDU? Both hubs are near each other in terms of flights, and STL-CVG loads are frequently in the 50s. I would think the first think they would add would be BOS.


If WN adds STL-CVG nonstop service, WN would be able to capture some of the St. Louis area business travelers who currently drive to Greater Cincinnati instead of flying to CVG. WN would likely charge offer lower fares on STL-CVG than DL currently does on STL-CVG nonstop flights since fares are usually higher on DL's STL-CVG nonstops than on WN nonstops to other Midwestern destinations from STL.

WN would also be able to pull in connecting passengers from AUS, DAL, DSM, HOU, MCI, LIT, MSY, OKC, OMA, SAT, TUL, and ICT if it added a morning departure to CVG from STL that departs from STL after 8:30 AM Central Time. WN isn't able to connect passengers onto the first CVG-MDW flight of the day from these places, and WN also isn't able to connect passengers onto the 2nd CVG-MDW flight of the day from some of the places west of the Mississippi that have nonstop service to both STL and MDW on WN.

Most of the destinations that passengers would be connecting to from STL through CVG on DL are also already served nonstop from STL, and DL can also already connect passengers to East Coast destinations from STL through ATL, DTW, or LGA.

I agree that DL adding STL-RDU nonstop service is a possibility since DL has recently added some other nonstop routes out of RDU that are in competition with WN nonstop routes out of RDU. On the other hand, most of the East Coast destinations that have nonstop service out of RDU on DL are already served nonstop from STL on WN. Demand for STL-RDU is also likely pretty well covered by the WN STL-RDU nonstops and connections through ATL, BNA, and CLT.

The only reasons for DL to hang onto STL-CVG nonstop service are (a) DL frequent flyers who are loyal to DL in the CVG market, (b) demand for service to STL from CVG on the CVG end of the route, and (c) DL corporate contracts in Greater Cincinnati. I agree that DL could drop STL-CVG nonstop service since WN might be able to do better on STL-CVG than DL does with O&D on the STL end of the route, connecting passengers, and lower fares.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:43 pm

ultrapig wrote:
I find the endless talk about TATL flights from St. Louis very interesting. Sure alot of people fly go to London from St. Louis but obviously not a plane full a day. If you were to get a non-stop to LHR, CDG , DUB or FRT. most of the passengers would connect. That's one stop service to most of Europe but we already have one stop service to virtually all of Europe through ORD, EWR, JFK etc. Its just not a big deal. It would be a big deal if we had 300-500 people a day going to one of the big European cities but we don't.


There’s pretty clear evidence in places like Austin and Nashville that TATL service grows the market, isn’t there?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:17 am

contour is 12x weekly
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:17 am

stl07 wrote:
contour is 12x weekly


I didn’t figure it would be super frequent but not even 2x a day surprises me. They had 6x a day on Fridays with cape. Still more seats total but I was hoping for 3x during the week.
 
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symphonicpoet
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:08 am

Of course Volaris will fly in while I'm out of town. Grr! I am genuinely surprised Apple is ditching Swift/Eastern, but it will be neat to see some new iron in town. Even if it is the same old routes to the same old vacation factories.
TW AA MU JL KE DL UA LOF GJS SKW WN
STL JFK FRA GVA CDG IAD ORD PVG SGN NRT ICN ATL SFO HKG MDW LGA BNA
L1011 MD82 83 88 B737 738 741 744 762 772 773 777 A320 E175 C700
 
STLflyer
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:28 pm

https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/commen ... t_lambert/

Thoughts? This is probably 110% pure BS, but maybe someone else has heard something.
 
strangeplanes
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:18 pm

STLflyer wrote:
https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/comments/acfljt/alaska_airlines_possibly_opening_a_hub_at_lambert/

Thoughts? This is probably 110% pure BS, but maybe someone else has heard something.


AS opening a hub in a SWA stronghold makes little sense. These two firms are already battling it out in their currently served markets. Anything AS adds to STL would be in overlap with what WN already has up and running.
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:39 pm

AS dropped PDX after WN added it.
 
STLflyer
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:40 pm

strangeplanes wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/comments/acfljt/alaska_airlines_possibly_opening_a_hub_at_lambert/

Thoughts? This is probably 110% pure BS, but maybe someone else has heard something.


AS opening a hub in a SWA stronghold makes little sense. These two firms are already battling it out in their currently served markets. Anything AS adds to STL would be in overlap with what WN already has up and running.



Agreed, it makes little sense. If they want a midwest hub, MEM, IND or MCI make more sense as they're not huge markets for WN or anyone else.

Besides, posts like "I would love to have a non-stop to Hawaii out of STL personally and Alaska could offer it." are about the kind of crap I expect from aviation related threads on Reddit.
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:08 pm

STLflyer wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
https://www.reddit.com/r/StLouis/comments/acfljt/alaska_airlines_possibly_opening_a_hub_at_lambert/

Thoughts? This is probably 110% pure BS, but maybe someone else has heard something.


AS opening a hub in a SWA stronghold makes little sense. These two firms are already battling it out in their currently served markets. Anything AS adds to STL would be in overlap with what WN already has up and running.



Agreed, it makes little sense. If they want a midwest hub, MEM, IND or MCI make more sense as they're not huge markets for WN or anyone else.

Besides, posts like "I would love to have a non-stop to Hawaii out of STL personally and Alaska could offer it." are about the kind of crap I expect from aviation related threads on Reddit.

None of those makes sense either. MEM has no AS service at all and small O&D. MCI is a WN stronghold. IND is out of range for all of the AS E75s from the west coast and not enough O&D to support mainlines.
 
strangeplanes
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:56 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
STLflyer wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:

AS opening a hub in a SWA stronghold makes little sense. These two firms are already battling it out in their currently served markets. Anything AS adds to STL would be in overlap with what WN already has up and running.



Agreed, it makes little sense. If they want a midwest hub, MEM, IND or MCI make more sense as they're not huge markets for WN or anyone else.

Besides, posts like "I would love to have a non-stop to Hawaii out of STL personally and Alaska could offer it." are about the kind of crap I expect from aviation related threads on Reddit.

None of those makes sense either. MEM has no AS service at all and small O&D. MCI is a WN stronghold. IND is out of range for all of the AS E75s from the west coast and not enough O&D to support mainlines.


MCI likely makes the most sense for a middle America hub. I believe that it was the first of that bunch listed to receive Alaskan service. WN has 50% of the market share in KC but it is almost all O/D. WN Connecting Hub in STL just makes no sense to compete with. Alaskan operates smaller planes that could fly routes from McI with too little demand for direct SWA service (Omaha, Little Rock, OKC, Witchita, Des Moines to name a few regional cities) and routes that SWA is performing poorly on (IND). This would start to eat away at SWA market share at MCI.

FI , an Alaskan codeshare partner, does fly to MCI as well. However, I doubt that would be much of a game changer.

MEM and IND are out for the above mentioned reasons. Also, isn’t IND on the path to becoming a Delta focus city?
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:05 pm

I always thought they would do MCI when the terminal opened (because they really can’t until then). E175 range to both coasts (like STL). Maybe they don’t want to wait that long though. Let’s say theoretically this happens, I still think it would be more of a focus city than a hub. Having some crossover with AA probably helps a bit in STL.

Still think it’s a long shot but we’ll see. I’ve always heard from pilots they are the last to know anything so I take anything from one with a big grain of salt.
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:02 pm

Speaking of FI, anyone hear any updates or progress on talks? Seems to have gone silent.

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