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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:03 pm

zackary747 wrote:
This mornings Spirit flight from LAS got stuck in the grass.


Not fun for the passengers....


Some more schedule changes for DL this week as the IND-MSP flight is now up to 4xA319 1xB717 in July. Also, the connection times have been improved for RSW/SEA/RDU/e.t.c-IND-CDG and vice versa

UA is also adding more mainline towards the end of the summer, but hard to keep track of whats new and what isn't
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pmanni1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:45 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/iaa-images/reports/02_FEB-Airline-Activity-Report_FINAL.pdf

February numbers
Feb '18 to Feb '19 pax (+2.4%)
int'l up (158.1%)

AS (-46.5%)
SY (+836.7%)
G4 (-2.8%)
AA (+2.4%)
DL (+10.7%)
F9 (-7.8%)
WN (+0.0%)
UA (+4.7%)

WN down to 30.9% Market Share

What caused AS to drop 46%?
8 straight months of double digit growth from Delta
Feb +10.7%
Jan +13.3%
DEC +11.5%
NOV +15.2%
DL +11.3%
SEP +14.8%
AUG +19.5%
JUL +14.9%
JUN +13.1%

Surprised UA and WN are flat/slightly up. March will be a more solid with growth from most carriers plus NK
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 30, 2019 6:46 pm

What caused AS to drop 46%?
 
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zackary747
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:44 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
What caused AS to drop 46%?


They cut IND-SFO.
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FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Getting lucky is a loose term.

They got lucky by ***NOT*** having Wow Air come in after the free money those running the IND airport want to hand out only to later pull out and then crapping all over the DL service to CDG and possibly having it go away, too.


Sorry, I just don't see DL dropping IND-CDG in the near future, at worst they would probably just reduce it to Summer only. IND is a pretty lucrative market for DL, and I don't think they would want to jeopardize that...

If they were to drop it, I would think the airport/state would find a suitor like BA or EI in a timely manner.

BA is likely a better alternative in the long run, anyway.
The yields on the DL service seem to be very high, so we will see, I guess.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Mar 30, 2019 7:59 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Btw, F9 extended their schedule recently and it appears they are moving the IND-LAS to depart at 11:14 PM! Which seems incredibly late....it could be that the gate might be needed during other times of the day.

IND got very lucky in TATL service, as they seemed to have missed out on the wave of TATL cuts so far, CLE is losing WW and FI, STL lost WW, CVG lost WW, PIT lost DL and WW, e.t.c


I mean it still gets in at or just after midnight (if ontime, which I’ll admit is a stretch that late in the day). They’re running RDU-PHX right now and it also leaves just before 11:30p arriving at 1:15a but it was arriving at 2:15a before the time change. Now that’s awful timing...

It’s Vegas...
The pax are more price sensitive than time sensitive. It was not unusual for ATA to run late evening Vegas trips, either. And they ran mostly full, unless they subbed L10’s on the run.
 
kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:56 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Getting lucky is a loose term.

The yields on the DL service seem to be very high, so we will see, I guess.


I have been watching these numbers closely since the route started and I do not see it going away. I had at once suspected additional summer service may be in the works, but that may have been prematurely positive based on last summer's service and a bunch of Hoosiers thinking a once in a lifetime trip to Europe was in the works. As I see it now, there will be no change. Summer yields will be very high....shoulder season will be great....off season will be just above what hub-Europe gets.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:07 pm

kindeham wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:


I have been watching these numbers closely since the route started and I do not see it going away. I had at once suspected additional summer service may be in the works, but that may have been prematurely positive based on last summer's service and a bunch of Hoosiers thinking a once in a lifetime trip to Europe was in the works. As I see it now, there will be no change. Summer yields will be very high....shoulder season will be great....off season will be just above what hub-Europe gets.


Beginning in May will be the real test, if there is strong YOY growth in the route in terms of loads, cargo, and yields then DL will keep service levels the same after the contract is up. I wouldn’t be surprised if IND-CDG hit 93%+ LF in June

It'll be hard to get additional TATL service on DL, with RDU, CVG, and MCO only having one TATL flight on DL.
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kavok
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:19 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
kindeham wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:


I have been watching these numbers closely since the route started and I do not see it going away. I had at once suspected additional summer service may be in the works, but that may have been prematurely positive based on last summer's service and a bunch of Hoosiers thinking a once in a lifetime trip to Europe was in the works. As I see it now, there will be no change. Summer yields will be very high....shoulder season will be great....off season will be just above what hub-Europe gets.


Beginning in May will be the real test, if there is strong YOY growth in the route in terms of loads, cargo, and yields then DL will keep service levels the same after the contract is up. I wouldn’t be surprised if IND-CDG hit 93%+ LF in June

It'll be hard to get additional TATL service on DL, with RDU, CVG, and MCO only having one TATL flight on DL.


I agree with the statement that it will be hard to get an additional TATL flight on DL. The existing IND-CDG serves the business community in IND very well, and frankly I think the focus for the next TATL should be on serving more leisure travelers.

Someone like EI, FI, etc. would be a much better fit for IND than BA or one of the other legacies. Let’s be clear, BA adding IND-LHR is not going to drive DL’s prices down on IND-CDG. If anything, it would cause DL to cancel IND-CDG altogether if enough business travelers bailed.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:35 pm

Just a question since I don't know. Are there a lot of AA/OW ff in the IND area? Seems like it was an easy move by BA to push DL off PIT-CDG due to legacy US presence at PIT. But if IND has many more DL ff, then the connection traffic to Europe and Asia would still pick DL/ST over BA/OW.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:59 pm

kavok wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
kindeham wrote:

I have been watching these numbers closely since the route started and I do not see it going away. I had at once suspected additional summer service may be in the works, but that may have been prematurely positive based on last summer's service and a bunch of Hoosiers thinking a once in a lifetime trip to Europe was in the works. As I see it now, there will be no change. Summer yields will be very high....shoulder season will be great....off season will be just above what hub-Europe gets.


Beginning in May will be the real test, if there is strong YOY growth in the route in terms of loads, cargo, and yields then DL will keep service levels the same after the contract is up. I wouldn’t be surprised if IND-CDG hit 93%+ LF in June

It'll be hard to get additional TATL service on DL, with RDU, CVG, and MCO only having one TATL flight on DL.


I agree with the statement that it will be hard to get an additional TATL flight on DL. The existing IND-CDG serves the business community in IND very well, and frankly I think the focus for the next TATL should be on serving more leisure travelers.

Someone like EI, FI, etc. would be a much better fit for IND than BA or one of the other legacies. Let’s be clear, BA adding IND-LHR is not going to drive DL’s prices down on IND-CDG. If anything, it would cause DL to cancel IND-CDG altogether if enough business travelers bailed.


Yeah, Indiana would be stupid to recruit BA at this point. IND-LHR is a decent sized market, but IND-CDG needs to develop first.

tphuang wrote:
Just a question since I don't know. Are there a lot of AA/OW ff in the IND area? Seems like it was an easy move by BA to push DL off PIT-CDG due to legacy US presence at PIT. But if IND has many more DL ff, then the connection traffic to Europe and Asia would still pick DL/ST over BA/OW.


More heavily DL than AA based on the old NW focus city:

From IND, here is what the passenger share looked like to Europe just before IND-CDG started, DL is likely significantly higher now:

Image
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:18 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
kindeham wrote:

Beginning in May will be the real test, if there is strong YOY growth in the route in terms of loads, cargo, and yields then DL will keep service levels the same after the contract is up. I wouldn’t be surprised if IND-CDG hit 93%+ LF in June

It'll be hard to get additional TATL service on DL, with RDU, CVG, and MCO only having one TATL flight on DL.


I would agree that 93% in June is pretty spot on for what will happen. I think you probably know that this is roughly the target number (higher load factor means you weren't charging enough or there is customer disastisfaction with crowded planes and/or oversales). If they hit 93% in June then it is a bullseye. Simply doesn't get any better than that - no matter what the market is.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:24 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

From IND, here is what the passenger share looked like to Europe just before IND-CDG started, DL is likely significantly higher now:



This is kinda hilarious to me. Looks like KLM is 3rd/4th. I live in Amsterdam only 10 minutes from Schiphol. Speaking of if anyone is ever traveling through Schiphol let me know - we can meet on the amazing observation deck there! My office is directly next to the airport so I can hop over there anytime.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:17 am

kindeham wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

From IND, here is what the passenger share looked like to Europe just before IND-CDG started, DL is likely significantly higher now:



This is kinda hilarious to me. Looks like KLM is 3rd/4th. I live in Amsterdam only 10 minutes from Schiphol. Speaking of if anyone is ever traveling through Schiphol let me know - we can meet on the amazing observation deck there! My office is directly next to the airport so I can hop over there anytime.


I think you'd be surprised how big AMS-IND is:

Image
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:55 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

I think you'd be surprised how big AMS-IND is:



That is quite surprising! Thankfully it is a bit down this year, but the last couple years have seen insane fares IND-AMS - like $900 in the off season. This summer is seeing $800-1000 on most days and then it drops to $650-700 in September, then right back up to $800-1000 in October (although that always seems to be the case with this market - price is high far in advance then settles down 3 months out or so). In contrast, IND-CDG is seeing $500-600 in October, $600-700 in September and $700-800 in Summer. (Last year both markets, if I recall correctly, were demanding $1000+ in Spring and Summer - not sure if there are numbers out there to verify my memory?)
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:39 pm

https://www.wthr.com/article/spring-bre ... is-airport

Friday was second busiest day ever for the airport, behind the Super Bowl :o
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FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:11 pm

tphuang wrote:
Just a question since I don't know. Are there a lot of AA/OW ff in the IND area? Seems like it was an easy move by BA to push DL off PIT-CDG due to legacy US presence at PIT. But if IND has many more DL ff, then the connection traffic to Europe and Asia would still pick DL/ST over BA/OW.

Many moons ago, Indy was an Airways hub city. So yes, lots of AA ff's.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:10 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
https://www.wthr.com/article/spring-break-travel-makes-busy-indianapolis-airport

Friday was second busiest day ever for the airport, behind the Super Bowl :o


There are some other potential record breaking days, with:
With the already big Spring Break,
April
FDIC Convention--30,000 attendees
NRA Convention--75,000 attendees
May
Indy 500--300,000 attendees
July
USA Volleyball Championship--50,000 attendees
August
Gen Con--65,000 attendees
November
FFA Convention--60,000 attendees
December
Big Ten Championship--70,000 attendees
Performance Racing Industry Show--65,000 attendees

Should be interesting to watch
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:01 am

Here is some Q4 2018 data, look how DL compares at IND, pretty impressive....

Image
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:39 pm

How are some of the city pairs yielding over 1.0? Interesting chart . Thanks!
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:49 pm

Rocketman1972 wrote:
How are some of the city pairs yielding over 1.0? Interesting chart . Thanks!

They have larger yield values because the routes command a very high fare, yet are very short routes flown by a small number of passengers. That is why all of the DTW-Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana routes have such a high value.

Being over 1.0 isn’t special in any specific way. It’s just the average fare divided by the miles flow, i.e. CVG-DTW has a fare of $323 for a 229 mile route, giving a yield of 1.41 (323/229).
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:35 am

Thanks, cvgComair! I thought the yield was a percentage. Still learning.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:36 am

DL is ratcheting it up starting in September:

IND-ATL stays 10x daily, but 4x frequencies will be upguaged to the B739 and 1x frequency is being upguaged to the B738
IND-MSP goes up to 4x A319 +1xB739
IND-DTW gets 1xB739+1xB717
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flyboy80
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:24 pm

That is a sizable increase in seats, and mainline frequency, versus Sept18. I'm still hoping to see one mainline/day on BOS/LGA especially as more 717s come back east (I think thats the plan) and other mainline deliveries displace some RJ capacity.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:10 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
That is a sizable increase in seats, and mainline frequency, versus Sept18. I'm still hoping to see one mainline/day on BOS/LGA especially as more 717s come back east (I think thats the plan) and other mainline deliveries displace some RJ capacity.


Yeah it is actually a 6% increase of their summer(June/July) schedule which is impressive.

Pretty surprised that no mainline was added to BOS/LGA, LFs will be extremely high this summer to SEA, LAX, BOS, NYC, e.t.c so I think their is a pretty good shot at it happening next year with the current growth trajectory


Also for AA July/Early August: IND-DFW goes all B738, PHL retains the A319, LAX has the 2nd daily dropped, and no mainline for ORD(but I believe it will be added later)
For UA: the IND-SFO is going down to 6x weekly from Nov-Feb
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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:32 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah it is actually a 6% increase of their summer(June/July) schedule which is impressive.

Pretty surprised that no mainline was added to BOS/LGA, LFs will be extremely high this summer to SEA, LAX, BOS, NYC, e.t.c so I think their is a pretty good shot at it happening next year with the current growth trajectory


Also for AA July/Early August: IND-DFW goes all B738, PHL retains the A319, LAX has the 2nd daily dropped, and no mainline for ORD(but I believe it will be added later)
For UA: the IND-SFO is going down to 6x weekly from Nov-Feb


You are good at digging up numbers. How will IND compare with CVG and RDU in terms of total seats for Delta? I know RDU has a lot of flights, but from what I've seen it seems it may be heavy on the RJ side.
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flyboy80
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:35 pm

CVG is heavy on the RJ side too. Mainline wise IND and CVG have been about even, obviously CVG having more mainline routes than IND and being still a "real" sort of hub I guess you could say. I wonder how much money the CVG mini hub makes. They expanded it not too long ago I believe and I know its a 737 pilot base.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:53 pm

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Yeah it is actually a 6% increase of their summer(June/July) schedule which is impressive.

Pretty surprised that no mainline was added to BOS/LGA, LFs will be extremely high this summer to SEA, LAX, BOS, NYC, e.t.c so I think their is a pretty good shot at it happening next year with the current growth trajectory


Also for AA July/Early August: IND-DFW goes all B738, PHL retains the A319, LAX has the 2nd daily dropped, and no mainline for ORD(but I believe it will be added later)
For UA: the IND-SFO is going down to 6x weekly from Nov-Feb


You are good at digging up numbers. How will IND compare with CVG and RDU in terms of total seats for Delta? I know RDU has a lot of flights, but from what I've seen it seems it may be heavy on the RJ side.

This is for September 20th, 5k seats per weekday seems pretty attainable by sometime next year.
Image

flyboy80 wrote:
CVG is heavy on the RJ side too. Mainline wise IND and CVG have been about even, obviously CVG having more mainline routes than IND and being still a "real" sort of hub I guess you could say. I wonder how much money the CVG mini hub makes. They expanded it not too long ago I believe and I know its a 737 pilot base.


CVG and IND used to be closer in mainline numbers, but due to slot constraints at DCA they recently swapped 4 RJs with 3 B717s on CVG-DCA which CVG a wider margin.
Image
*This is not exact since it doesn't include int'l and is only 10% of airline tickets, but it is a good comparison between each airport for DL
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:06 pm

Btw it looks like UA is now using A3 and A4 to RON, and UA is even using A4 for departures. Things are starting to get crowded...
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GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:23 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Btw it looks like UA is now using A3 and A4 to RON, and UA is even using A4 for departures. Things are starting to get crowded...


Where do RONs typically park if they're not on a gate? I know they have the areas beyond A3/B3, and I've seen an ERJ in the space between A and B.
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:45 am

GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Btw it looks like UA is now using A3 and A4 to RON, and UA is even using A4 for departures. Things are starting to get crowded...


Where do RONs typically park if they're not on a gate? I know they have the areas beyond A3/B3, and I've seen an ERJ in the space between A and B.


Lots of planes RON in between the A and B concourses
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flyboy80
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:42 am

I believe there are dual taxiways between A and B concourses where there are technically hard stands (I see the parking lines painted) but it looks kind of tight. In the summer I’ve seen as many as 11 WN 737s on the ground a few -700s parked in that middle hard stand area. Before Allegiant I think WN put a plane down there often and now I see them across the field at ATI or whatever it’s called but those could be there for maintenance. Not sure.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:11 pm

Here are the CDG numbers from October, still slow, but the CDG-IND leg showed some promise
IND-CDG-59.3%-70,612 cargo-131 pax per flight; CDG-IND-72.3%-233,622 cargo-162 pax per flight

Compared to other TATL markets
FI CLE-KEF-44.7%; KEF-CLE-54.5%-15,431 cargo
WW CLE-KEF-53.9%; KEF-CLE-73.1%

BA BNA-LHR-80.3%-230,080 cargo; LHR-BNA-86.5%-352,559 cargo

WW STL-KEF-62.1%; KEF-STL-73.8%

DL CVG-CDG-74.0% LF-188,726 cargo; CDG-CVG-81.1% LF-315,055 cargo
WW CVG-KEF-58.2% LF; KEF-CVG-79.2% LF

January LF
AA
IND-LAX-73.3%; LAX-IND-85.7%

AS
IND-SEA- 67.2%; SEA-IND-76.1%

DL
IND-LAX-83.4%; LAX-IND-78.1%
IND-SLC-83.2%; SLC-IND-82.0%
IND-ATL-82.9%; ATL-IND-84.4%
IND-MCO-72.7%; MCO-IND-78.3%
IND-RDU-72.3%; RDU-IND-72.4%
IND-BOS-60.5%; BOS-IND-65.8%
IND-RSW-57.3%; RSW-IND-81.8%
IND-JFK-57.2%; JFK-IND-68.9%
IND-SEA-49.1%; SEA-IND-59.8%


F9
IND-SAN-79.7%; SAN-IND-76.1%

WN
IND-LAX-90.4%; LAX-IND-95.8%
IND-PHX-89.7%; PHX-IND-80.1%
IND-OAK-66.0%; OAK-IND-62.6%
IND-AUS-61.4%; AUS-IND-96.0%
IND-EWR-57.8%; EWR-IND-89.3%
IND-MDW-57.1%; MDW-IND-61.1%
IND-MCI-52.2%; MCI-IND-57.5%
IND-BOS-52.1%; BOS-IND-56.5%
IND-MSY-41.6%; MSY-IND-91.8%

UA
IND-SFO-75.8%; SFO-IND-80.7%
IND-EWR-72.7%; EWR-IND-77.0%
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indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:22 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Here are the CDG numbers from October, still slow, but the CDG-IND leg showed some promise
IND-CDG-59.3%-70,612 cargo-131 pax per flight; CDG-IND-72.3%-233,622 cargo-162 pax per flight

Compared to other TATL markets
FI CLE-KEF-44.7%; KEF-CLE-54.5%-15,431 cargo
WW CLE-KEF-53.9%; KEF-CLE-73.1%

BA BNA-LHR-80.3%-230,080 cargo; LHR-BNA-86.5%-352,559 cargo

WW STL-KEF-62.1%; KEF-STL-73.8%

DL CVG-CDG-74.0% LF-188,726 cargo; CDG-CVG-81.1% LF-315,055 cargo
WW CVG-KEF-58.2% LF; KEF-CVG-79.2% LF


Those are strong numbers for BA in BNA, especially because you figure there's no feed there, its all O/D.

Not shabby for IND-CDG-IND considering it was in its fifth month of operation. I did hear the flight went out of IND this past Saturday with 20 open seats in D1 which is not great, but the flight had come in from CDG completely full.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:37 pm

The IND flight is carrying a lot less cargo, and far less pax than the other DL flights... I wish the numbers were better. Do you MidWest? Thoughts.
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:40 pm

BNA is killing it!
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:14 pm

fedex1 wrote:
The IND flight is carrying a lot less cargo, and far less pax than the other DL flights... I wish the numbers were better. Do you MidWest? Thoughts.


It's all about growth, YOY growth. As long as IND shows sizable growth in both yields and passengers starting in May, the flight will be fine.
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:16 pm

I agree... IND, has started out slooooow. BNA, is explosive!
 
indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:00 pm

I think the other point to be made here is let's not forget BNA is to LHR. If IND had its lone TATL route to LHR, which we know is the #1 TATL destination, our LFs would likely be on par with what BA is getting at BNA. So there's reason for optimism, I think.
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:18 pm

That is true. So how does IND rank overall so far with the other Delta XXX - CDG routes? Bottom?
 
bobsmith99
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:35 pm

indygs wrote:
I think the other point to be made here is let's not forget BNA is to LHR. If IND had its lone TATL route to LHR, which we know is the #1 TATL destination, our LFs would likely be on par with what BA is getting at BNA. So there's reason for optimism, I think.


Possibly, I do think AMS would have been better for IND instead of CDG. Obviously BA evaluated IND and didn't think that the flight would work- at least for now. The upside if the loads improve, DL has shown that they will add additional int'l flights (ex. PDX adding LHR (and crowding out BA in the process) after seeing solid performance on PDX-AMS)
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:53 pm

Do we see Delta adding a additional trans Atlantic flight in the next 10 years to IND..... IF CDG performs well? What does Delta need to see to even think about adding from IND?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:11 am

indygs wrote:
I think the other point to be made here is let's not forget BNA is to LHR. If IND had its lone TATL route to LHR, which we know is the #1 TATL destination, our LFs would likely be on par with what BA is getting at BNA. So there's reason for optimism, I think.


This is correct, people should realize that with a flight like this, LFs take a while to rise.

For example, DL started RDU-CDG in 2016 and if you compare October LFs in its inaugural year RDU-CDG and CDG-RDU were at 69% LF. And the 69% LF was with a B757. That same year CVG-CDG was at 58% and CDG-CVG was at 70.6%. I think this goes to show that we can expect to see some growth in the next year or two.

Also, it would be interesting to see how much TATL travel is still connecting through PHL, JFK, ORD, e.t.c

For example, AA is adding mainline to PHL this summer and has added mainline to ORD, plus DL has increased service to JFK, so presumably there is still a large subset of TATL flyers connecting in the US to get to Europe.

bobsmith99 wrote:
indygs wrote:
I think the other point to be made here is let's not forget BNA is to LHR. If IND had its lone TATL route to LHR, which we know is the #1 TATL destination, our LFs would likely be on par with what BA is getting at BNA. So there's reason for optimism, I think.


Possibly, I do think AMS would have been better for IND instead of CDG. Obviously BA evaluated IND and didn't think that the flight would work- at least for now. The upside if the loads improve, DL has shown that they will add additional int'l flights (ex. PDX adding LHR (and crowding out BA in the process) after seeing solid performance on PDX-AMS)


Could have been that BA wasn't planning on adding service for another 2-3 years, and DL was much more eager to get a TATL flight first.

fedex1 wrote:
Do we see Delta adding a additional trans Atlantic flight in the next 10 years to IND..... IF CDG performs well? What does Delta need to see to even think about adding from IND?

https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 5056b34823

Contract is up at the end of May 2020, what happens from Next Month-May 2020 will determine what DL does after the contract ends.

If IND-CDG LF exceeds 93-94% (or is in that range) from Late May-Early August, then DL might look into more seasonal TATL service. IND has an advantage of a State Government that is more than willing to pour money into new int'l flights, and if the State of Indiana will incentivize expanded service, then DL will likely be willing to increase connections through IND as well to help boost new flights.

Right now IND-CDG loads look really good from May-June so that is promising.

Long term I think the state could "persuade" DL to look at 3x weekly to LHR or AMS
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fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:05 am

At what expense to the CDG flight?
 
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atypical
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:48 am

fedex1 wrote:
At what expense to the CDG flight?


Excellent question. LHR-IND would get boosts with cargo based upon the RR plant in Indy if the the CFM (GE/Safran) model holds true (CVG-CDG). The pax numbers would also, supposedly, be better because of Indy and London businesses ties (RR and Eli Lilly). I think LHR would be the best TATL for Indy all other things being the same. I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.
 
VTORD
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:40 am

atypical wrote:
I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.

As in other than LHR when you say "London routes"? I am trying to understand your statement here. Isn't VS the partner in London?
 
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atypical
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:19 am

VTORD wrote:
atypical wrote:
I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.

As in other than LHR when you say "London routes"? I am trying to understand your statement here. Isn't VS the partner in London?


Yes, but the number of connections VS provides in London (any airport) is not significant to what AF and KLM provide from CDG and and AMS. For example VS provides no connections from London to any airport in Europe. An AA (partner and codeshare to BA) or BA flight from IND to LHR or LGW would provide a substantial number of connections to many destinations in Europe and beyond.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:47 pm

atypical wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
At what expense to the CDG flight?


Excellent question. LHR-IND would get boosts with cargo based upon the RR plant in Indy if the the CFM (GE/Safran) model holds true (CVG-CDG). The pax numbers would also, supposedly, be better because of Indy and London businesses ties (RR and Eli Lilly). I think LHR would be the best TATL for Indy all other things being the same. I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.


I'm not sure how much cargo the RR plants send to Europe, however, it could capitalize on FedEx cargo like the CDG flight does.

I will add AMS doesn't add much value in terms of connections offered, most of the benefit is based off of a more seamless connection . CDG makes sense because it provides good connections to India, where Cummins has a large presence along with Infosys, Wipro, AXISCADES, plus Purdue has the most Indian students out of any university in the US.

AA/BA to LHR would be good, but ideally it would be nice to have one carrier(DL) provide TATL service to both destinations, so it doesn't split corporate travel. Connections would obviously be something to worry about, but again this is a little down the road, but it is something to think about. I'd wager IND is either 1 or 2 in terms of top unserved US routes from London....
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kindeham
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

I'm not sure how much cargo the RR plants send to Europe, however, it could capitalize on FedEx cargo like the CDG flight does.

I will add AMS doesn't add much value in terms of connections offered, most of the benefit is based off of a more seamless connection . CDG makes sense because it provides good connections to India, where Cummins has a large presence along with Infosys, Wipro, AXISCADES, plus Purdue has the most Indian students out of any university in the US.

AA/BA to LHR would be good, but ideally it would be nice to have one carrier(DL) provide TATL service to both destinations, so it doesn't split corporate travel. Connections would obviously be something to worry about, but again this is a little down the road, but it is something to think about. I'd wager IND is either 1 or 2 in terms of top unserved US routes from London....


For my own sefish reasons I'm a cheerleader for AMS...mostly because I live in AMS. I am really curious to see if CDG is as strong this summer as June of last summer. This is make it or break it time, especially for expanded (seasonal) service.
 
bobsmith99
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:44 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
atypical wrote:
fedex1 wrote:
At what expense to the CDG flight?


Excellent question. LHR-IND would get boosts with cargo based upon the RR plant in Indy if the the CFM (GE/Safran) model holds true (CVG-CDG). The pax numbers would also, supposedly, be better because of Indy and London businesses ties (RR and Eli Lilly). I think LHR would be the best TATL for Indy all other things being the same. I don't see DL adding any London routes because there is no close partner in London like DL has with AF and KLM. AA or BA to London would be next and DL or KLM to AMS on the third. IMHO AMS is vastly superior to make connections over CDG however that is secondary to point-to-point revenue that London offers.


I'm not sure how much cargo the RR plants send to Europe, however, it could capitalize on FedEx cargo like the CDG flight does.

I will add AMS doesn't add much value in terms of connections offered, most of the benefit is based off of a more seamless connection . CDG makes sense because it provides good connections to India, where Cummins has a large presence along with Infosys, Wipro, AXISCADES, plus Purdue has the most Indian students out of any university in the US.

AA/BA to LHR would be good, but ideally it would be nice to have one carrier(DL) provide TATL service to both destinations, so it doesn't split corporate travel. Connections would obviously be something to worry about, but again this is a little down the road, but it is something to think about. I'd wager IND is either 1 or 2 in terms of top unserved US routes from London....



Actually, I'm not sure how much better CDG is to India. KLM and Jet Airways both offer connections to India and AMS is a much more user friendly experience than CDG. I agree with you on a single carrier providing service to both destinations. I think IND could support a seasonal Condor flight to Frankfurt very soon also.

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