https://blog.aboutamazon.com/transportation/amazons-expansion-in-kentucky






Youtube overview video - https://youtu.be/6DkitCY-BYs

Any thoughts on what’s next for AS at CMH? Assuming that the SEA flight continues to be successful (84% LF for the first month of operation), I can’t imagine AS intends to run a one-flight station for too long. Seems like that would be pretty inefficient long term. I know they publicly talked about more routes/frequencies in the future, and there was speculation here about SFO before UA beat them to it. SAN or PDX? Another SEA frequency? Thoughts?

CMHtraveler wrote:

Any thoughts on what’s next for AS at CMH?

From what I’ve seen, loads should be continue to be good going into the summer. At what price the seats are being sold and if it’s enough to be considered profitable, is unknown. They could continue to run CMH with a single SEA frequency, there’s nothing really barring them from doing so. As for what other routes AS could do if they wanted to expand, I would think SAN or PDX would be at the top of the list. With both UA and WN to the Bay Area and 3x daily to LAX on AA and DL, I don’t think AS would be able to make either destination work. The problem with PDX is it would probably cannibalize SEA quite a bit. The yield would have to be there for both cities to make them work. SAN too would be tough to fill even seasonally. AS could add another frequency to SEA, if the current route warrants, but I could only see that on a seasonal basis as well.

flyCMH wrote:

The problem with PDX is it would probably cannibalize SEA quite a bit. The yield would have to be there for both cities to make them work. SAN too would be tough to fill even seasonally.

I’m not too familiar with AS’ typical operations, do they do much less-than-daily flying ala F9 or G4? Would they run something like SAN 3x weekly or PDX weekends only on a seasonal basis like WN currently does on CMH-MSY?

CMHtraveler wrote:

I’m not too familiar with AS’ typical operations, do they do much less-than-daily flying ala F9 or G4? Would they run something like SAN 3x weekly or PDX weekends only on a seasonal basis like WN currently does on CMH-MSY?

I don't believe so, I think they're pretty traditional legacy when it comes to their scheduling. The most they do is seasonal daily frequencies, from what I've seen.

flyCMH wrote:

I don't believe so, I think they're pretty traditional legacy when it comes to their scheduling. The most they do is seasonal daily frequencies, from what I've seen.

Hmm, in that case maybe SAN is better suited for WN, who currently run seasonal IND-SAN. Perhaps AS’ entrance to the CMH market will cause them to consider it, but they tend to be pretty cautious about new routes. Took them forever to add their hub at HOU and with the MAX groundings, I don’t see too much growth in the immediate future.

DAY's Global Ratings outlook has been reversed from negative to stable:
http://headlines.flydayton.com/report-r ... ve-stable/
https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2019/05/j ... ional.html
http://headlines.flydayton.com/wp-conte ... ort-OH.pdf

flyCMH wrote:

CMHtraveler wrote:

Any thoughts on what’s next for AS at CMH?

From what I’ve seen, loads should be continue to be good going into the summer. At what price the seats are being sold and if it’s enough to be considered profitable, is unknown. They could continue to run CMH with a single SEA frequency, there’s nothing really barring them from doing so. As for what other routes AS could do if they wanted to expand, I would think SAN or PDX would be at the top of the list. With both UA and WN to the Bay Area and 3x daily to LAX on AA and DL, I don’t think AS would be able to make either destination work. The problem with PDX is it would probably cannibalize SEA quite a bit. The yield would have to be there for both cities to make them work. SAN too would be tough to fill even seasonally. AS could add another frequency to SEA, if the current route warrants, but I could only see that on a seasonal basis as well.

Adding SAN seems logical but, again, how they do scheduling might nix that.

I think AS dropped IND-SFO after the merger with VX, so I doubt they add CMH-SFO unless UA were to drop it. I feel like WN backtracked on dropping CMH-OAK because they want to have it both ways, almost like they saw their metaphorical ex on a date with somebody else and texted them to say "Just remember, I'm still into you...". (They did the same thing in DAY where they announced they were ending ops only to run one more seasonal MCO and TPA after G4 came to town.)

rnorth6920 wrote:

https://blog.aboutamazon.com/transportation/amazons-expansion-in-kentucky

AS adding CVG-SEA nonstop service is likely to happen with Amazon expanding in Northern Kentucky, and there are also other business ties between Greater Seattle and Greater Cincinnati such as the Boeing-GE Aviation/CFM International business relationship to support AS adding CVG-SEA nonstop service.

If AS does add service to CVG, AS would receive incentives from CVG airport, along with waivers of landing fees, gate usage fees, and ticket counter fees during its 1st year of service at CVG.

jplatts wrote:

rnorth6920 wrote:

https://blog.aboutamazon.com/transportation/amazons-expansion-in-kentucky

AS adding CVG-SEA nonstop service is likely to happen with Amazon expanding in Northern Kentucky, and there are also other business ties between Greater Seattle and Greater Cincinnati such as the Boeing-GE Aviation/CFM International business relationship to support AS adding CVG-SEA nonstop service.

If AS does add service to CVG, AS would receive incentives from CVG airport, along with waivers of landing fees, gate usage fees, and ticket counter fees during its 1st year of service at CVG.

I very much doubt it, but always happy to be proven wrong. CVG-SEA just doesn't appear to be a very robust route, and the Amazon Prime Air cargo hub by no means indicates there will be any appreciable travel between Amazon HQ and Cincinnati. DL has still seemingly been unable to make the route work year-round even with hubs on both ends, so I doubt AS is going to jump in anytime soon.

StuckinCMHland wrote:

Please forgive me for the intrusion on the college sports debate (always a great thing to have anywhere for any reason), but I do have a question or two for people who normally fly out CMH.

1. If you fly internationally, what airline do you prefer that flies out of CMH?
2. If you fly internationally, what hub or airport do you like to fly to to get your int'l flight?
3. If you fly internationally, do you just drive down to CVG and get on the CVG-AMS on DL, or do you drive somewhere else?

Thanks for your thoughts.

Sorry for the delay, was actually in Europe.

1. DL
2. JFK if heading east, DTW if headed west
3. No, I would not drive outside the city to take a flight

1. UA
2. IAD (if east)
3. ORD/SFO. west

As some may know, United recently publicized an effort to filter more connecting itineraries via their IAD hub rather than EWR; the latter being reserved for more O&D traffic. The CLE thread discovered proof of that strategy with CLE-IAD being upgauged from all-regional to 3x 73G/739 and 1x ER4 in October. Curious, I checked CMH-IAD and, according to the October schedule, it will receive one mainline upgauge to become 3x CR7 and 1x 319. I believe this is the first time mainline metal has been scheduled between CMH and IAD. If the October schedule remains accurate, there will also be 3x mainline to ORD, 2x mainline to DEN, and 1x mainline to SFO for a total of 7 from CMH.

flyCMH wrote:

Curious, I checked CMH-IAD and, according to the October schedule, it will receive one mainline upgauge to become 3x CR7 and 1x 319. I believe this is the first time mainline metal has been scheduled between CMH and IAD. If the October schedule remains accurate, there will also be 3x mainline to ORD, 2x mainline to DEN, and 1x mainline to SFO for a total of 7 from CMH.

Wonderful to see more upguaging to go along with UA’s recent rapid growth in pax at CMH! After the AA mad dog retirement thread concluded that all the MD-80s will be retired by the beginning of September, I checked on late September’s schedule and found that the 5 daily CMH-DFW flights are scheduled as 3x 738 and 2x a319. Amazing how far we’ve come; a few years ago all you could expect to see at CMH was WN 737 variants and RJs. Between the additions of F9, NK, and AS, the new SLC and SFO service, fleet changes at AA and 2nd daily LAX flight, the UA upgauages, and let’s not forget the first regularly scheduled a321 service to ATL on DL, suddenly it would be strange not to see an airbus or three at any given time! A much more interesting time for spotters. Bring on the mainline metal!

CMHtraveler wrote:

Wonderful to see more upguaging to go along with UA’s recent rapid growth in pax at CMH! After the AA mad dog retirement thread concluded that all the MD-80s will be retired by the beginning of September, I checked on late September’s schedule and found that the 5 daily CMH-DFW flights are scheduled as 3x 738 and 2x a319. Amazing how far we’ve come; a few years ago all you could expect to see at CMH was WN 737 variants and RJs. Between the additions of F9, NK, and AS, the new SLC and SFO service, fleet changes at AA and 2nd daily LAX flight, the UA upgauages, and let’s not forget the first regularly scheduled a321 service to ATL on DL, suddenly it would be strange not to see an airbus or three at any given time! A much more interesting time for spotters. Bring on the mainline metal!

I believe the September schedule is still a placeholder; aircraft types are only valid up to August. That being said, this will probably be the aircraft mix to DFW once the mad dogs are retired, which is definitely nice to see. Somewhat of a sidebar, but I was hoping DAY-DFW would keep some mainline via 1 or 2x 319s, but has since been downgauaged to all E75s (but bumped up to 4x daily from 3).

I agree that the overall airline/aircraft mix has definitely improved in recent years. Increased mainline and large-RJ service is always a pleasure to see.

DeltaRules wrote:

DAY's Global Ratings outlook has been reversed from negative to stable:
http://headlines.flydayton.com/report-r ... ve-stable/
https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2019/05/j ... ional.html
http://headlines.flydayton.com/wp-conte ... ort-OH.pdf

The same article also highlights DAY's continuing decline in enplanements; hopefully the decline has stabilized.

Total enplanements at DAY last year declined to 899,000, from a year-end 950,620 in 2017 and 1,035,263 in 2016. But the city expects those numbers to stabilize and slowly rise.

flyCMH wrote:

As some may know, United recently publicized an effort to filter more connecting itineraries via their IAD hub rather than EWR; the latter being reserved for more O&D traffic. The CLE thread discovered proof of that strategy with CLE-IAD being upgauged from all-regional to 3x 73G/739 and 1x ER4 in October. Curious, I checked CMH-IAD and, according to the October schedule, it will receive one mainline upgauge to become 3x CR7 and 1x 319. I believe this is the first time mainline metal has been scheduled between CMH and IAD. If the October schedule remains accurate, there will also be 3x mainline to ORD, 2x mainline to DEN, and 1x mainline to SFO for a total of 7 from CMH.

I can't ever remember anything other than large RJs on CMH-IAD.

I checked DAY-IAD runs the same time of year at 2x CRJ (with occasional bumps up to CR7), which probably isn't helped by a) the time of year and b) the convenience of shuffling planes in and out of ZW's MX hangar there. One of the two flights right now is an E175.

flyCMH wrote:

Somewhat of a sidebar, but I was hoping DAY-DFW would keep some mainline via 1 or 2x 319s, but has since been downgauaged to all E75s (but bumped up to 4x daily from 3).

DeltaRules wrote:

I checked DAY-IAD runs the same time of year at 2x CRJ (with occasional bumps up to CR7), which probably isn't helped by a) the time of year and b) the convenience of shuffling planes in and out of ZW's MX hangar there. One of the two flights right now is an E175.

G4 seasonal flights notwithstanding, does that leave ATL on DL as the only legacy mainline service at DAY?

flyguy89 wrote:

I very much doubt it, but always happy to be proven wrong. CVG-SEA just doesn't appear to be a very robust route, and the Amazon Prime Air cargo hub by no means indicates there will be any appreciable travel between Amazon HQ and Cincinnati. DL has still seemingly been unable to make the route work year-round even with hubs on both ends, so I doubt AS is going to jump in anytime soon.

The PDEW on SEA-CVG in Q3 2018 was 185 passengers per day, and 32% of the passengers traveling between CVG and SEA were connecting on airlines other than DL in Q3 2018.

DL's eastbound SEA-CVG nonstop is currently a redeye flight, whereas AS usually has daytime departures in the eastbound direction to most of its domestic destinations east of the Mississippi. There are also some travelers in both the SEA and CVG markets who would prefer a daytime nonstop that departs in the morning and arrives in the afternoon over a redeye nonstop.

CVG is also the only DL hub or focus city market that isn't currently served by AS whereas both DL and AS already serve ATL, BOS, DTW, LAX, MSP, JFK, RDU, and SLC nonstop from SEA.

DL also used to have 3 daily nonstops to SEA out of CVG 12 years ago, but DL cut back on CVG-SEA nonstop service with the downsizing of its CVG operation following the DL-NW merger.

There are also other business ties beyond the Amazon presence in the Northern Kentucky region such as the Boeing-GE Aviation/CFM International business relationship to support CVG-SEA nonstop service on AS in addition to DL.

CMHtraveler wrote:

G4 seasonal flights notwithstanding, does that leave ATL on DL as the only legacy mainline service at DAY?

Yes, unfortunately. Still hoping for a reversal of fortunes and DAY-DFW receives some level of mainline service once the MAX debacle plays out and more new mainline jets join the AA fleet. Or, UA could rotate a mainline jet or two to ORD like the used to about a decade ago. Wishful/hopeful thinking?

And the April 2019 numbers for CMH & LCK are out and indicate continued steady growth. April '19 707,185 compared to '18 with 669,615. That's good for a 5.6% monthly increase year over year and 7.0% growth year to date compared to 2018. Spirit with nearly 30% growth and United with 16.4% lead the way. At LCK, Allegiant was down 17.5%, which was not a surprise based on earlier announcements. Nice to see continued growth at CMH, wondering just how long it will take to cross the 9 million passenger barrier.

On a related note, the 2018 estimated population figures are out and put Columbus at just under 900,000 residents. Still only 2.1 in the metro, but the growth trends continue both at the airport and in the community at large. I would expect the next great growth driver will not be population, but increased convention and event travel, with the ASAE convention here next year and the expansion of the Hilton. One thing we locals take for granted that is a strong thing which is in CMH's favor is just how easy it is to get from the Airport to the Convention Center and surrounding area. Going to be very interesting to see how much it can take off. (no pun intended)

One other note, someone asked about connections for international out of Columbus. I am on AA 99.99% of the time, so that limits my options but my favorites are: PHL; JFK; and DFW. I do not like the process at ORD and avoid it for that reason.

You wonder how long the monthly growth will continue for CMH before it reverts back to mean? It's not like we're adding flights left and right so I've got to think at some point we level out. The same with the other airports in the region.

ChasChandler wrote:

You wonder how long the monthly growth will continue for CMH before it reverts back to mean? It's not like we're adding flights left and right so I've got to think at some point we level out. The same with the other airports in the region.

It will obviously plateau at some point, but I think it’s safe to project it won’t be in 2019. While left and right may be a stretch, SEA on AS is new, the second daily LAX on AA is new, and (I’ll reluctantly add it lest it is dropped before I hit “submit”) RDU on F9 is also new. On deck for June are SFO on UA and SLC on DL. Then you factor in the upguages we know about for the fall. Off the top of my head, 1x DL to ATL going to an a321, 1x IAD on UA going to an a319, and 1x LGA on AA going to an e190. Those all being daily, that’s a significant amount of extra capacity. Finally, at some point this year the MAX issue will be resolved and WN will stop cancelling flights so regularly, likely returning to slow growth or at least holding steady. Add all that together and you’ve got to be pretty optimistic about 2019!

brooklynchris13 wrote:

And the April 2019 numbers for CMH & LCK are out and indicate continued steady growth. April '19 707,185 compared to '18 with 669,615. That's good for a 5.6% monthly increase year over year and 7.0% growth year to date compared to 2018. Spirit with nearly 30% growth and United with 16.4% lead the way. At LCK, Allegiant was down 17.5%, which was not a surprise based on earlier announcements. Nice to see continued growth at CMH, wondering just how long it will take to cross the 9 million passenger barrier.

On a related note, the 2018 estimated population figures are out and put Columbus at just under 900,000 residents. Still only 2.1 in the metro, but the growth trends continue both at the airport and in the community at large. I would expect the next great growth driver will not be population, but increased convention and event travel, with the ASAE convention here next year and the expansion of the Hilton. One thing we locals take for granted that is a strong thing which is in CMH's favor is just how easy it is to get from the Airport to the Convention Center and surrounding area. Going to be very interesting to see how much it can take off. (no pun intended)

One other note, someone asked about connections for international out of Columbus. I am on AA 99.99% of the time, so that limits my options but my favorites are: PHL; JFK; and DFW. I do not like the process at ORD and avoid it for that reason.

AS at 84% again.

ChasChandler wrote:

You wonder how long the monthly growth will continue for CMH before it reverts back to mean? It's not like we're adding flights left and right so I've got to think at some point we level out. The same with the other airports in the region.

I think the answer to this question is in what I posted. As long as the population is growing and the economy in the region is humming, there is no reason to expect that the growth will slow substantially. With the number of companies moving here or starting here, the growing convention business, and expanding options for leisure travel, I would not be shocked to see CMH hit 9,000,000 passengers in the next couple of years. (Which was always the magic number for the new terminal efforts to begin.)

Now the interesting element of this to me is how airlines at CMH will handle this growth. IMO most of it on the business side will more than likely come in increases to the size of aircraft used here to hubs, rather than new destinations. AA has already added a 319 back to the ORD schedule and I would not be surprised to see mainline return on CLT and maybe even an A321 to DFW in the busy fall travel season. After all, with UA's adds we are not missing very many hub or focus city connections on DL, AA, or UA. On the WN side, with the addition of Houston, we have service to all of their top ten cities except LAX. The growth on the leisure side will likely be a mix of Spirit, Southwest, and Allegiant. Will be interesting to see if business travel can drive some of the seasonal destinations to year-around or even more than weekly (MSY on WN for example). We have discussed frequently possible destinations for WN and NK, so I guess time will tell. (And there is always the biggest mystery of all.. Europe.)

brooklynchris13 wrote:

(And there is always the biggest mystery of all.. Europe.)

I thought the biggest mystery of all is when we will finally hit the tipping point where CMH and CVG posters decide during the yearly debate that we need separate threads for each airport.

FWIW I agree with your speculations about upguages vs. new destinations, especially on the legacy side. On the leisure side, more frequency to MSY is definitely on my wish list, be it NK or WN.

I am a bit concerned about AC’s load factor hovering around 50% for the last several months. Do they simply not care because these are feeder flights for their hub and the connecting yields are worth it, or are we in danger of cuts to our only daily international flight?

CMHtraveler wrote:

brooklynchris13 wrote:

(And there is always the biggest mystery of all.. Europe.)

I thought the biggest mystery of all is when we will finally hit the tipping point where CMH and CVG posters decide during the yearly debate that we need separate threads for each airport.

FWIW I agree with your speculations about upguages vs. new destinations, especially on the legacy side. On the leisure side, more frequency to MSY is definitely on my wish list, be it NK or WN.

I am a bit concerned about AC’s load factor hovering around 50% for the last several months. Do they simply not care because these are feeder flights for their hub and the connecting yields are worth it, or are we in danger of cuts to our only daily international flight?

I would think they'd cut frequency before axing the route altogether. They've also upgauged it to CRJ from Dash 8s in the last few years.

CMHtraveler wrote:

brooklynchris13 wrote:

(And there is always the biggest mystery of all.. Europe.)

I thought the biggest mystery of all is when we will finally hit the tipping point where CMH and CVG posters decide during the yearly debate that we need separate threads for each airport.

FWIW I agree with your speculations about upguages vs. new destinations, especially on the legacy side. On the leisure side, more frequency to MSY is definitely on my wish list, be it NK or WN.

I am a bit concerned about AC’s load factor hovering around 50% for the last several months. Do they simply not care because these are feeder flights for their hub and the connecting yields are worth it, or are we in danger of cuts to our only daily international flight?

That was pretty hysterical about CVG threads...

Regarding AC I have to wonder how much of their traffic to YYZ is international connections that UA would otherwise send to IAD or EWR. I think they would be pretty quick to chop it back in frequency if it was completely terrible. With their fares, they may make money on LF's far lower than some we are used to. Also, I wonder if they are also trying to block Porter or WestJet from CMH. I think Porter's expansion efforts have slowed to a crawl, but we would appear an obvious possible for them. Speaking of international, does anyone know if we may have a shot at Montreal or any Mexican destinations? (other than CUN)

brooklynchris13 wrote:

does anyone know if we may have a shot at Montreal or any Mexican destinations? (other than CUN)

Can’t speak to Canada, but as far as Mexico Columbus’ growing Latino population is still very small relative to the overall population and in comparison to surrounding Midwest cities like IND and CVG. Country and city of origin is also pretty diverse rather than concentrated like the large Guatemalan population in Cinci. I travel to SLP a few times a year and the check-in agents at CMH are always surprised by where the bags are going. We also don’t have a ton of business links, so as much as I’d love to see it, I doubt we will see flights to MEX, MTY, GDL, or any of the big non-resort destinations in Mexico anytime soon. What might be a possibility is an additional DL/WN/Vacation Express-style seasonal flight to one of the other tourist cities like SJD or PVR, or more seasonal frequency on CUN.

I think most of the comments regarding AC's lower than average load factor are on point: it's a combination of high yield and blocking off potential competition.

Regarding Mexico, it's a tough sell to justify a nonstop to anywhere else but Cancun. It would be great to see a daily E90 to MEX for the expat population, business ties to the country, as well as beyond connections, but the demand likely isn't there, especially with AAs DFW and UAs IAH hubs covering the country so well already. As mentioned, maybe another weekly vacation junket to PVR could eventually happen, but that's about it.

Lastly, not sure if anyone noticed, but Omni is running a 763 to SNN tonight from CMH. Anyone know what that's all about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/OAE ... /KCMH/EINN

flyCMH wrote:

I think most of the comments regarding AC's lower than average load factor are on point: it's a combination of high yield and blocking off potential competition.

Regarding Mexico, it's a tough sell to justify a nonstop to anywhere else but Cancun. It would be great to see a daily E90 to MEX for the expat population, business ties to the country, as well as beyond connections, but the demand likely isn't there, especially with AAs DFW and UAs IAH hubs covering the country so well already. As mentioned, maybe another weekly vacation junket to PVR could eventually happen, but that's about it.

Lastly, not sure if anyone noticed, but Omni is running a 763 to SNN tonight from CMH. Anyone know what that's all about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/OAE ... /KCMH/EINN

I saw the Omni 767 leave and wondered the same thing. It came in from FAR.

That wasn't the only eye-catching thing I saw- the AA Astrojet 738 left just before it.

Latinos are one of Central Ohio's fastest growing populations and, while daily service might not be feasible, 3-4x week on AM might be - especially since they are Skyteam, and Delta has a decently sized operation here. Just a thought...

CMHMarc787 wrote:

Latinos are one of Central Ohio's fastest growing populations and, while daily service might not be feasible, 3-4x week on AM might be - especially since they are Skyteam, and Delta has a decently sized operation here. Just a thought...

You are correct about the growing population, and I would be thrilled with any level of service, however Latinos don’t all come from Mexico let alone Mexico City. The population, as mentioned above, is rather dispersed in terms of origin. It is currently very easy to hop on a plane at CMH, make a stop at ATL, DFW, IAH, Or MIA and get pretty much anywhere you want to go in Latin America. I hate to say it, but I think it will be some time before the population and business links reach the level where direct service to MEX is realistic. Consider that WN is pulling out of MEX completely, and those are routes from cities with a much larger base of ex-pats. Consider also that IND and CVG, both with much larger Latino populations, do not have direct service to non-tourist-driven Latin American destinations. I don’t mean to rain on the parade, but I think TATL is a much more realistic short/medium term international target for CMH.

flyCMH wrote:

Regarding Mexico, it's a tough sell to justify a nonstop to anywhere else but Cancun. It would be great to see a daily E90 to MEX for the expat population, business ties to the country, as well as beyond connections, but the demand likely isn't there, especially with AAs DFW and UAs IAH hubs covering the country so well already. As mentioned, maybe another weekly vacation junket to PVR could eventually happen, but that's about it.

In addition, DL also already serves MEX nonstop from its main ATL hub. There are also some travelers in both Ohio and Mexico who are willing to connect to MEX from Ohio (and vice versa) through ATL on DL since (a) MEX is the home base for AM (DL SkyTeam alliance partner), (b) CVG is a focus city for DL, and (c) AM Premier Points can be earned on DL flights.

DeltaRules wrote:

flyCMH wrote:

I think most of the comments regarding AC's lower than average load factor are on point: it's a combination of high yield and blocking off potential competition.

Regarding Mexico, it's a tough sell to justify a nonstop to anywhere else but Cancun. It would be great to see a daily E90 to MEX for the expat population, business ties to the country, as well as beyond connections, but the demand likely isn't there, especially with AAs DFW and UAs IAH hubs covering the country so well already. As mentioned, maybe another weekly vacation junket to PVR could eventually happen, but that's about it.

Lastly, not sure if anyone noticed, but Omni is running a 763 to SNN tonight from CMH. Anyone know what that's all about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/OAE ... /KCMH/EINN

I saw the Omni 767 leave and wondered the same thing. It came in from FAR.

That wasn't the only eye-catching thing I saw- the AA Astrojet 738 left just before it.

Speaking of charters, anyone know what the Swift Air 734 from ACY that just came in is about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWQ ... /KACY/KCMH

CMHtraveler wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

flyCMH wrote:

I think most of the comments regarding AC's lower than average load factor are on point: it's a combination of high yield and blocking off potential competition.

Regarding Mexico, it's a tough sell to justify a nonstop to anywhere else but Cancun. It would be great to see a daily E90 to MEX for the expat population, business ties to the country, as well as beyond connections, but the demand likely isn't there, especially with AAs DFW and UAs IAH hubs covering the country so well already. As mentioned, maybe another weekly vacation junket to PVR could eventually happen, but that's about it.

Lastly, not sure if anyone noticed, but Omni is running a 763 to SNN tonight from CMH. Anyone know what that's all about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/OAE ... /KCMH/EINN

I saw the Omni 767 leave and wondered the same thing. It came in from FAR.

That wasn't the only eye-catching thing I saw- the AA Astrojet 738 left just before it.

Speaking of charters, anyone know what the Swift Air 734 from ACY that just came in is about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWQ ... /KACY/KCMH

I'd be willing to bet it's a casino junket and one of those Total Rewards Air (or whatever they call it) deals. I've seen SY 73Gs at CMH a couple times coming from/going to GPT and saw a house livery RP E90 going to ACY one time leave C47.

They're actually semi-regularly scheduled out of DAB, but seem to be more infrequent from CMH (and DAY).

WN's CMH-OAK will continue less-than-daily to at least December per enrilia's thread.

UA spooked them into staying.

DeltaRules wrote:

WN's CMH-OAK will continue less-than-daily to at least December per enrilia's thread.

UA spooked them into staying.

I always thought that was a strange cut. Purely anecdotal, but I’ve been on that flight several times and every time it’s been completely full. I know LF isn’t everything, but with no competition (at the time) to a major market with a booming economy on both ends and plenty of business links, it seemed an odd choice. Someone at WN must have noticed UA’s recent double-digit pax growth and upguages at CMH combined with the new SFO flight and decided to at least make an attempt at defending their turf.

I wouldn’t be surprised if both flights remain and find success. Remember, not too long ago there was a question about the sustainability of CMH-LAX and now it’s at 3x daily.

CMHtraveler wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

flyCMH wrote:

I think most of the comments regarding AC's lower than average load factor are on point: it's a combination of high yield and blocking off potential competition.

Regarding Mexico, it's a tough sell to justify a nonstop to anywhere else but Cancun. It would be great to see a daily E90 to MEX for the expat population, business ties to the country, as well as beyond connections, but the demand likely isn't there, especially with AAs DFW and UAs IAH hubs covering the country so well already. As mentioned, maybe another weekly vacation junket to PVR could eventually happen, but that's about it.

Lastly, not sure if anyone noticed, but Omni is running a 763 to SNN tonight from CMH. Anyone know what that's all about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/OAE ... /KCMH/EINN

I saw the Omni 767 leave and wondered the same thing. It came in from FAR.

That wasn't the only eye-catching thing I saw- the AA Astrojet 738 left just before it.

Speaking of charters, anyone know what the Swift Air 734 from ACY that just came in is about?

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWQ ... /KACY/KCMH

The Omni charter looks to have been military: https://www.facebook.com/13841571287328 ... =3&theater

Interesting stats from the MSY thread (emphasis mine):

NolaMD88fan wrote:

Fastest growing markets year over year:

...
7. Raleigh/Durham, NC = 24.2% growth (154 PDEW and 23 cent yield)
8. San Antonio, TX = 23.5% growth (150 PDEW and 34 cent yield)
9. Columbus, OH = 22.8% growth (97 PDEW and 22 cent yield)
10. San Francisco, CA = 16.4% growth (492 PDEW and 14 cent yield)

97 seems like a pretty solid number to support 1x daily on either NK or WN, instead of the current sporadic seasonal schedule (including on-season Saturdays, when for some reason in the early afternoon an NK and WN flight depart for MSY at an almost identical time). Then again, I don’t know how the yield compares and I’m not sure how the averaging is done, perhaps the number is artificially inflated by big seasonal swings?

CMHtraveler wrote:

Interesting stats from the MSY thread (emphasis mine):

NolaMD88fan wrote:

Fastest growing markets year over year:

...
7. Raleigh/Durham, NC = 24.2% growth (154 PDEW and 23 cent yield)
8. San Antonio, TX = 23.5% growth (150 PDEW and 34 cent yield)
9. Columbus, OH = 22.8% growth (97 PDEW and 22 cent yield)
10. San Francisco, CA = 16.4% growth (492 PDEW and 14 cent yield)

97 seems like a pretty solid number to support 1x daily on either NK or WN, instead of the current sporadic seasonal schedule (including on-season Saturdays, when for some reason in the early afternoon an NK and WN flight depart for MSY at an almost identical time). Then again, I don’t know how the yield compares and I’m not sure how the averaging is done, perhaps the number is artificially inflated by big seasonal swings?

I've always wondered how this route performed....does anyone have recent LF for CMH-MSY?

I'm still not sure 97PDEW is enough to support daily service. WN 737's seat 143 and NK's A320's 185. But I remain positive that demand begets demand. There obviously was already a market for MSY, otherwise two carriers wouldn't have started service. And the hope is with new service existing, it further spurs more demand. This is one service I'd like to see continuing (and increasing) in CMH. Along with at least seasonal to SAN (don't care who decides to serve it). Demand has to be there for that market by now.

flycmh2009 wrote:

I'm still not sure 97PDEW is enough to support daily service. WN 737's seat 143 and NK's A320's 185. But I remain positive that demand begets demand. There obviously was already a market for MSY, otherwise two carriers wouldn't have started service. And the hope is with new service existing, it further spurs more demand. This is one service I'd like to see continuing (and increasing) in CMH. Along with at least seasonal to SAN (don't care who decides to serve it). Demand has to be there for that market by now.

The lack of CMH-AUS nonstop service is one of the largest holes at CMH, and there is likely enough demand for WN to add AUS-CMH nonstop service as the PDEW on AUS-CMH was 116 passengers per day in Q4 2018.

I also agree that CMH-SAN nonstop service could also be added by WN as it is one of the top destinations traveled to from CMH that isn't served nonstop from CMH, and the PDEW on CMH-SAN was 107 passengers per day in Q4 2018.

flycmh2009 wrote:

I'm still not sure 97PDEW is enough to support daily service. WN 737's seat 143 and NK's A320's 185.

Don’t forget NK’s 319s at 145 seats. I presume the addition of service could generate the additional 20 or so PDEW that would make it viable. Of course, the route planners know better than I do and they haven’t added it yet. SAN and AUS feel like a matter of time, most likely on WN but perhaps SAN is also a candidate to be the next AS destination from CMH?

CMHtraveler wrote:

flycmh2009 wrote:

I'm still not sure 97PDEW is enough to support daily service. WN 737's seat 143 and NK's A320's 185.

Don’t forget NK’s 319s at 145 seats. I presume the addition of service could generate the additional 20 or so PDEW that would make it viable. Of course, the route planners know better than I do and they haven’t added it yet. SAN and AUS feel like a matter of time, most likely on WN but perhaps SAN is also a candidate to be the next AS destination from CMH?

That's still not enough. You can't count on capturing all the traffic. A fair amount of people will still connect somewhere.

cledaybuck wrote:

CMHtraveler wrote:

flycmh2009 wrote:

I'm still not sure 97PDEW is enough to support daily service. WN 737's seat 143 and NK's A320's 185.

Don’t forget NK’s 319s at 145 seats. I presume the addition of service could generate the additional 20 or so PDEW that would make it viable. Of course, the route planners know better than I do and they haven’t added it yet. SAN and AUS feel like a matter of time, most likely on WN but perhaps SAN is also a candidate to be the next AS destination from CMH?

That's still not enough. You can't count on capturing all the traffic. A fair amount of people will still connect somewhere.

Exactly. Not everyone will suddenly forget their AAdvantage Miles, Delta Sky Miles, etc. and hop on Southwest or Spirit. However, in agreement with the earlier post, it could potentially spur demand to have more consistent service, the question being where is that break point? I think that is why AUS and SAN are more likely to see N/S service from CMH before MSY due to those two destinations having both business and leisure traffic, instead of MSY's more tourist dominated nature. That also gives Southwest an advantage given that they appeal to both business and leisure travelers, whereas Spirit does not have that going for it. Given the MAX issues, Hawaii, and everything else on Southwest's plate, however, I would not look for them to add much in the next year. That, in turn, gives an opening for Alaska.. will be interesting to see if they take it.

All in all, exciting times at CMH continue.

CMHtraveler wrote:

SAN and AUS feel like a matter of time, most likely on WN but perhaps SAN is also a candidate to be the next AS destination from CMH?

CMH-SAN would probably require mainline aircraft as SAN-CMH is longer than any AS, AA, DL, or UA nonstop routes that are currently operated on regional jets. WN also would likely add CMH-SAN nonstop service in order to defend market share in the SAN and CMH markets if CMH-SAN nonstop service is added by AS.

jplatts wrote:

flycmh2009 wrote:

I'm still not sure 97PDEW is enough to support daily service. WN 737's seat 143 and NK's A320's 185. But I remain positive that demand begets demand. There obviously was already a market for MSY, otherwise two carriers wouldn't have started service. And the hope is with new service existing, it further spurs more demand. This is one service I'd like to see continuing (and increasing) in CMH. Along with at least seasonal to SAN (don't care who decides to serve it). Demand has to be there for that market by now.

The lack of CMH-AUS nonstop service is one of the largest holes at CMH, and there is likely enough demand for WN to add AUS-CMH nonstop service as the PDEW on AUS-CMH was 116 passengers per day in Q4 2018.

I also agree that CMH-SAN nonstop service could also be added by WN as it is one of the top destinations traveled to from CMH that isn't served nonstop from CMH, and the PDEW on CMH-SAN was 107 passengers per day in Q4 2018.

Thanks for the numbers on AUS/SAN. Speaking of AUS, did F9 service there ever materialize? Though obviously F9 doesn't cater to business travelers, it could at least serve as a basic eye test for if the route is viable.

Maybe DL will sneak in and surprise us all with the service and recent designation of AUS as a "focus city."

Regardless, I do think those are the 2 biggest pins missing on the CMH map.

brooklynchris13 wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

CMHtraveler wrote:

Don’t forget NK’s 319s at 145 seats. I presume the addition of service could generate the additional 20 or so PDEW that would make it viable. Of course, the route planners know better than I do and they haven’t added it yet. SAN and AUS feel like a matter of time, most likely on WN but perhaps SAN is also a candidate to be the next AS destination from CMH?

That's still not enough. You can't count on capturing all the traffic. A fair amount of people will still connect somewhere.

Exactly. Not everyone will suddenly forget their AAdvantage Miles, Delta Sky Miles, etc. and hop on Southwest or Spirit. However, in agreement with the earlier post, it could potentially spur demand to have more consistent service, the question being where is that break point? I think that is why AUS and SAN are more likely to see N/S service from CMH before MSY due to those two destinations having both business and leisure traffic, instead of MSY's more tourist dominated nature. That also gives Southwest an advantage given that they appeal to both business and leisure travelers, whereas Spirit does not have that going for it. Given the MAX issues, Hawaii, and everything else on Southwest's plate, however, I would not look for them to add much in the next year. That, in turn, gives an opening for Alaska.. will be interesting to see if they take it.

All in all, exciting times at CMH continue.

I don’t pretend to be a director of network planning (even the armchair variety), so correct me if I’m way off base; but in a leisure market isn’t it more likely the additional demand generated by a new direct flight is the result of marketing, discounts, and vacation packages than luring FFs from connecting routes on the airline of their choice? That said, AUS and SAN have higher PDEWs, and therefore I agree are more likely candidates for daily service.

Not sure how accurate FR24 is, but the first week's worth of CMH-SFO (inaugural is tomorrow) is showing everything from a 319 to a 739.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ua1585

Useless trivia is that the first flight will be run on one of the ex-China Southern A320s.

In case anyone is wondering , just got off the inaugural LCK-CHS , it carried 177 pax , pretty impressive!!

Robert1010 wrote:

In case anyone is wondering , just got off the inaugural LCK-CHS , it carried 177 pax , pretty impressive!!

Nice! There seems to be endless summer demand for Ohio-Carolinas travel. I’m more likely to find a neighbor in the outer banks during July than walking down my street.