EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:VS4ever wrote:EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Appreciate the ‘Welcome’ Dieuwer and VS4ever!
Now I’ll start hitting with the questions:
We know both DL’s and B6’s stated ambitions for Logan... if we do the math (As VS4ever, you did this a few weeks back for B6), for B6 they should easily be able to hit above their stated 200 daily flights (in terms of Terminal C capacity)... Maybe 230???
As for DL- by September 2019, they will hit approx. 142 flights per day (solely on DL, not including partners)... DL has to have further expansion in the works (as Ed Bastion stated about BOS in a recent speech); with DL’s stated goal of 150 flights per day, as of September 2019 this technically leaves them with very little room (5%) for expansion. So, I would imagine that growth in Terminal A for Delta will exceed 150 flights/day, given that 1) DL has not added important domestic markets like: BWI (the last top 10 market from BOS lacking DL service), CLT, MIA, DAL, HOU, DEN, PHX, SAN; 2) international market expansion (I have no clue and won’t begin to speculate on routes they’ll add, as DL tends to be conservative with their international market additions (adding on top of existing served airport markets that require additional service, or unserved markets that standout due to a lack of service); and 3) an expansion of service on existing routes (of newly served routes, LAS should be a candidate for either larger aircraft or increased service)...
So, for both B6 and DL... we know about the band-aid solutions (handful of additional gates being added in C; reconfig of A and DL getting 20 gates)... but both airlines will run out of space relatively quickly, especially DL. Aside from increasing turns, what are the more mid-term/long-term solutions???
There are really only a few ways you can increase capacity at a space restricted airport (note i am not saying slot controlled).
1. New Gates - kind of hard due to infrastructure especially at BOS - B6 is going to access to 2 new gates (C20A and C43) along with E1 as preference to get to the 30, But unless you change the footprint of the airport, not much more you can do...For DL its worse, first of all they have 10 less gates to work with, A1 is pretty much assigned to WS and the satellite gates somewhat get blocked with bigger aircraft for the international runs, see the answers to my questions above about the A gates and what they can take. But there are no such plans to expand A and the only way you could is basically to remove the South Cargo or relocate it down to the J pad area and remove the Eagle Terminal.
2. Turns/frequency - dangerous game unless you are WN who are masters at it. Where folks do 8, they do 11, just look at DAL for goodness sake, talk about some serious tin pushing. But back to BOS, B6 already have OTP issues (some posters on here would have you believe that it's an insanely large problem), well let's face it, they are most definitely not good, however it does not seem to stop people flying them in ever increasing numbers, so they do have somewhat of a legitimate grip,. So they must be doing something right? B6 have the space to do it, but again, is that a smart move, could the A220's be turned faster to make it work... DL on the other hand have a different issue, The WB's at A13 to A17 take up major space and time, sure they get A18-A22 back, but they are already stacked out at A2 to A11 pretty much, especially at peak times. So is this really an option for them...
3. Bigger Aircraft - THIS.. B6 moving up on 320's to 321's and coming soon the E190's to 220's will definitely increase the seat and potential passenger count, that along with the refit of the 320's from 150 to 162 will also help. For DL, a lot of their flying is regional, so there's a delicate balance there with mainline. With the 757's showing up more frequently, that increases their scope along with the 764's, they have a much higher seat count than anything B6 has, so once DL ramps up to the 150, what's next, how do they change their flying to grow.. that to me is a big unanswered question
As an aside, just to prove how insane the padding is of schedules, I give you DL5927 from PHL to BOS yesterday. Block time, to leave at 8.25am and arrive 10.02am, due to the fact that there were only about 30 ish people aboard our 9E E170, we took off at 8.15am and arrived at the gate at 9.15am... in a first for me in all my years of traveling, I actually arrived home before the time i was originally due to land.. That one will certainly help the OTP for DL, which reminds me, i need to finish those stats for 2018..
1) Thanks for the reply here... I guess I should have positioned my question a little differently: DL has stated a 150 flight goal for terminal A- they are closing in on this VERY fast with the fall flight additions taken into account (DL not including its partners will be at around 142 flights per day by Sept 2019). That leaves them with 8 more flights they could add to reach their stated goal of 150 (I think they’ll try to get to more like 158 or 160)... but, with a large number of significant domestic business markets still missing from their BOS flight portfolio (they need to add these markets in order to: 1) be a force to be reckoned with as a DL focus city, and 2) in order to add feed to int’l flights)... markets such as DAL (not Dallas Love, but Dallas market), HOU (market), DEN, CLT, BAL, MIA, PHX, SAN... how can DL get to additional domestic markets, grow frequencies on existing markets, and add new international markets (which they definitely still have huge potential to do) without approaching severe capacity constraints? What is the absolute max capacity for terminal A? Could they jam in more than 160 flights (180, 190??), could they consider forcing out WS, and as a midterm solution, without expanding the terminal, could they utilize Terminal E as an interim solution to accommodate additional flights as the E to A transfer is relatively simple??? Also once Massport completes the A to B post security connector could we possibly see DL use B for overflow?
2) And with all the DL and B6 new routes and frequency increases, plus the huge amount of domestic and international routes/carriers added for 2019, plus upgauging on existing routes, I think we could see 2019 finish out extremely strong, I would anticipate 44.5m-45m pax (that’s about 3.5m-4m pax increase- while robust and lofty, this year will see absolute unprecedented growth, especially given the B6/DL battle). What do others think on the growth prospect? On a side note, in 2018, only Aug hit over 4m pax... I think in 2019 we’ll see 3-4 months hit over 4 million pax.
3) What does everyone anticipate as future routes/carriers being added?? Personally, I think DL hopping on KEF is a no brainer for 2 reasons: 1) WW is gone from the market, 2) DL tends to have a conservative approach to international network expansion, and they like to add markets that are proven and have additional demand for further capacity- KEF has performed exceptionally well- we saw similar results/approach with DL on DUB and now LIS. But, are there other markets we could see DL go after in a preemptive strike to B6’s expansion?? Where do you see potential growth? LH has been performing very well (90%+)- could we see expansion there, but in the form of OS or SN??
4) For 2020 what new markets are larger potentials to be added? CAN on CZ, extra TYO capacity (on NH), AM returning (or DL adding to check B6), increases with CM, return for AV to BOG, AD (Azul), BRU, VIE, YYC on WS...???
Quite a bit to unpack in all of that, so let me see if I can answer everything..
1) a) The theoretical max capacity for A should be around 210, 21 gates at 10 turns, however that's not really possible due to the WB flights blocking gates particularly in the evening. In my previous thoughts on this, i've gone for 20 gates (leave WS alone) 5 turns on the A13 to A17 gates and 10 on the rest (15) = 175, i think that's about as far as they dare go. Obviously if you punt WS to E, that would potentially give you another 10 for 185.
b) I think you are going to see some frequency rationalization and market rationalization based on route performance in the future, if you follow tphuang's yield posts, you will see some of DL's expansion routes have been far from successful profit wise domestically and i believe they are going to need to have a balance on all of that to be ultimately successful in their goals. The markets you state, would certainly appeal to their business contracts, the question is with the healthy competition on most of those options, is it a case of throwing money at old rope? and with their other route options out there, do they need non-stops to all those places or will their clients be ok with connection routings like AA does. I even took one today with AA (BOS-CLT-MCO) because it happened to work for me in this instance.
c) The A to B connector isn't slated for completion by Massport until at least June 2025 and is currently unfunded, so who knows if that's the right time-frame or not, Given B already appears to be overflowing because SY (originally planned to go to B), F9 and HA have all been punted to E, not sure overflow to B, even if they wanted to, would be possible unless AA and UA shrink further, the likely candidate would be AA or AC given their proximity to the low A gates accordingly.
d) could they use E? well for domestic flights early in the day, although as others have said E in the morning is not a great experience right now due to TSA staffing and the like. But for their international departures, not likely, there's no space in the 7-9pm time-frames for them to use to be honest. Plus not quite the same experience for their international travelers at BOS and a long way from the DL Skyclub lounge
2) I tend to work on an overall growth percentage of around 5%, which would get to about 43m, There are some balances to the growth coming, while we have KL, KE, EK (380) , VS 2nd daily, DL, EDI and LIS coming on board as examples for International, we have lost, WW, PF, AV and TA from the mix so that will temper some of the growth, Domestically, AA will drop a bit due to their JFK issues for one thing, but the adds later in the year by DL and B6 should also counteract, so I am going to say 43.5m for this year and 46m for next, assuming the bottom doesn't drop out of the economy like some are predicting. I will be also curious to see how RAM get on with a new market for BOS.
3) New routes, I like the potential idea of KEF for DL, they could use a 757 to match FI somewhat and with no WW, It might work, although WW's pax being super price conscious may not go for it and DL would be left scrapping FI, who have some capacity left to fill bearing in mind their results last year when WW was running against them. LH is an interesting one, there has long been talk about BRU as a destination on SN, but I think LH are enjoying the returns of folks to FRA and MUC following the failed experiments of DUS and CGN by AB and EW respectively, it appeared to really hurt LH on a load basis, so I think they will be fiercely protective of their routes. after being bitten like that and will not want the diluted by OS turning up, who i don't think have a lot of spare planes to go around anyway.
Where do I see potential growth? Asia, CX and JL are doing well, CX are still holding on to decent loads despite going daily, another 3 weekly might make things interesting on that one. JL do well as they have low seat density and I doubt will want to go more than daily , so it would be up to NH to dip their toe in the water, but they aren't exactly doing well. The Middle East has recently been discussed as a potential growth area, but honestly with the capacity limitations in E until the expansion is completed, there aren't exactly plenty of spots to go around to fit much in the way of additional service. When the 4 new (double NB) gates come on stream, then we might see an additional push by massport for increased service to pay for it. If we go back to domestic I will be interested to see how F9 get on with their wading into BOS especially as they are in E at the so called quieter times, they might expand a little if it goes well. B6 will expand a bit more outside of the European service to round out their "new strategy at BOS" announced by Robin Hayes last week, I actually see more growth coming from bigger aircraft than i do on routes and frequencies, because we are getting to saturation point with the gates.
Kind of answered 4 in #3, so I will leave it at that. What we have here in BOS is a merry dance going on between DL and B6, AA, UA and WN stagnating, AS/SY cutting back, NK/F9 filling in the gaps, the canadian carriers cutting back a bit as their pax numbers have dropped back recently and then Terminal E with it's continued gate issues until such time as the expansion is complete. and then what happens, do EI and TP move back full time? they will take a lot of space in the new section if they do that, but surely that has to be the agreement with B6 long term.
Let's face it, it's going to be fun, however it ultimately plays out and will keep these threads going for a long time to come. and cheers to that.