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VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:32 am

So, given that the entire UA fleet of WB will be premium heavy with Polaris and PE, (and E+) with much smaller regular economy seat sections, if the US Economy slows, (God forbid) will UA be at a disadvantage with such premium heavy WB layouts?
From my 2008 experience, when normally we would fly, clients who covered those travel costs, would just say “no” - we need to get by with video conference calls. I’m very happy 2 people from my company were able to fly Polaris at about $7000 each, and be reimbursed this week. The only downside was flying the old diamond seats to Geneva- but had it been a newly refurbished 763, it would have been a far better experience.
Given how many WBs have been renovated so far, will UA make their 2020 deadline? And I assume it is the end of 2020, not just 12 more months.
Also, as much as I have read about PRASM, (I must be dense), because I still do not understand the metric well. How is PRASM effected by aircraft with less total seats on a particular aircraft, but a far higher amount of premium seats? I have to assume that a High Premium configured 763 will produce higher revenue than regular 767 configured with fewer J & PE class seats and much bigger economy sections.
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hOMSaR
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:47 pm

VC10er wrote:
Also, as much as I have read about PRASM, (I must be dense), because I still do not understand the metric well. How is PRASM effected by aircraft with less total seats on a particular aircraft, but a far higher amount of premium seats? I have to assume that a High Premium configured 763 will produce higher revenue than regular 767 configured with fewer J & PE class seats and much bigger economy sections.


PRASM (passenger revenue per available seat mile) is basically saying how much money a seat generates, on average. CASM (cost per available seat mile) is how much the airline has to spend to earn that PRASM. Obviously, PRASM should exceed CASM or you’re basically losing money.

Lots of folks on a.net make a big deal about CASM. No doubt, it’s important, but the real important metric is how PRASM compares to CASM.

A high-J 767 is probably going to have ridiculously high CASM. You’re dividing the cost of flying a 767 (which isn’t significantly different if you’re flying all-Y tourist configuration or an all-business class configuration) by fewer seats. That’s going to make the resulting CASM higher.

What UA is betting is that the much higher revenue from the high-J config (J bringing in many multiples the revenue of a Y seat) will increase PRASM at a much higher rate than the CASM will increase.
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fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:59 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
VC10er wrote:
Also, as much as I have read about PRASM, (I must be dense), because I still do not understand the metric well. How is PRASM effected by aircraft with less total seats on a particular aircraft, but a far higher amount of premium seats? I have to assume that a High Premium configured 763 will produce higher revenue than regular 767 configured with fewer J & PE class seats and much bigger economy sections.


PRASM (passenger revenue per available seat mile) is basically saying how much money a seat generates, on average. CASM (cost per available seat mile) is how much the airline has to spend to earn that PRASM. Obviously, PRASM should exceed CASM or you’re basically losing money.

Lots of folks on a.net make a big deal about CASM. No doubt, it’s important, but the real important metric is how PRASM compares to CASM.

A high-J 767 is probably going to have ridiculously high CASM. You’re dividing the cost of flying a 767 (which isn’t significantly different if you’re flying all-Y tourist configuration or an all-business class configuration) by fewer seats. That’s going to make the resulting CASM higher.

What UA is betting is that the much higher revenue from the high-J config (J bringing in many multiples the revenue of a Y seat) will increase PRASM at a much higher rate than the CASM will increase.


Well said.

Essentially, leaving the 220-250 seat a/c that would normally fly the route and pull off 50-100 low cost seats and leave them to Norwegian. TATL fares are ridiculously low these days and this is one way to fight them. We paid $616 RT into LON out of PAR on UA for Easter week...I'm guessing UA is OK to leave pax like me behind and focus on those who purchase closer in and pay more or purchase higher class fares. It will be interesting to see what happens.
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:00 pm

What are your thoughts on the roll out plans for the the new HiJ 767's coming out of mod soon in HKG? Do you think they will go into revenue service on PS routes until they have enough a/c configured to route on the final TATL routes? Two will be completed in Q2 it seems.
 
iahcsr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:47 pm

iahcsr wrote:
39M
N27511 After sitting 18 days, delivery has occurred. BFISEA 17Jan. Progress.. Now, will N37510 have to wait for 7511 to complete induction or will it deliver sooner ?

Answer: It had to wait. 7511 out of induction yesterday. 7510 delivered BFISEA today.
Now, about the 78Js just sitting at CHS waiting on FAA...
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:30 am

Update on 2019 fleet as posted in newsletter:


New planes for 2019: more efficient, better customer experience

In 2019, we will add the most mainline aircraft to our fleet since 2010 – a total of 40 aircraft, including two of the Boeing 777-300s that were included in the new Boeing order of four 777-300s and 24 more 737 MAXs we announced as part of our earnings release.

Even with the planned retirement during the year of nine of our least-efficient narrowbody aircraft, we will still enjoy a net gain of more than 30 mainline aircraft to support our network growth while at the same time providing a better customer experience and reducing costs, particularly fuel costs.

The incoming mainline aircraft are:
20 737 MAX 9s
8 Boeing 787-10s.
2 Boeing 777-300s
10 Airbus A319s (used).

This great year for aircraft deliveries comes on the heels of another solid year – in 2018, we welcomed 28 mainline aircraft to the United fleet. Those were 10 Boeing 737 MAX 9s, four Boeing 787-9s, four Boeing 777-300s, three Boeing 787-10s, four used Airbus A319s and three used Boeing 767-300s.

As mentioned above, our fleet renewal plan for 2019 includes retiring nine of our oldest aircraft – four A320s, two A319s and three 757-200s. Fleet Planning Strategy Managing Director Mauricio Angel said an order book that includes new and used aircraft can significantly lower both our operating and capital costs, as well as give us the ability to support growth and selectively upgauge aircraft on routes. Replacing a 757 with a 737 MAX results in more than a 20 percent CASM (cost per available seat mile, our unit cost measure) improvement, for instance.

Also, compared to the departing airframes, the used Airbuses we are buying and refurbishing join the fleet with considerably more “green time,” or hours/cycles remaining before an aircraft or component needs inspection, repair or replacement.

That green time can help us avoid major and costly maintenance checks on the departing aircraft, which can be used for spare parts on the remaining fleet. Also, some of the engines on the retiring fleet can help us support the new engine overhaul line for V2500 engines (used on both the A319 and A320) at the San Francisco Maintenance Center.

In addition to the mainline aircraft, in 2019 we will take delivery of 25 of Embraer 175 regional jets for use on United Express routes.


=

319/320 retirements are interesting as UA spent money on life extension programs meant to carry them past 2025. Obviously, something changed with the calculation.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
iahcsr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:28 am

These six 319/20s must just have too many hour/cycles and/or due for heavy Mx checks to be worth keeping when these new(er) aircraft are available. Interesting no used 320s are included. UA does have four planned to be added (currently stored here and there in Europe) but apparently not this year.
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:53 am

LAXintl wrote:
In addition to the mainline aircraft, in 2019 we will take delivery of 25 of Embraer 175 regional jets for use on United Express routes.


Are these going to be replacing other large RJs (CR7s?), or is UA still allowed more 76-seaters in their scope clause?
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iahcsr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:02 am

FSDan wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
In addition to the mainline aircraft, in 2019 we will take delivery of 25 of Embraer 175 regional jets for use on United Express routes.


Are these going to be replacing other large RJs (CR7s?), or is UA still allowed more 76-seaters in their scope clause?

These will be 175SC, configured with only 70 seats and will be operated by ExpressJet.
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:27 am

iahcsr wrote:
FSDan wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
In addition to the mainline aircraft, in 2019 we will take delivery of 25 of Embraer 175 regional jets for use on United Express routes.


Are these going to be replacing other large RJs (CR7s?), or is UA still allowed more 76-seaters in their scope clause?

These will be 175SC, configured with only 70 seats and will be operated by ExpressJet.


Thanks, got it. But are they replacing some existing 70-seaters (CR7s or E70s), or does UA have room to add additional 70-seaters without removing other currently active 70-seaters?
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United1
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:39 am

FSDan wrote:
iahcsr wrote:
FSDan wrote:

Are these going to be replacing other large RJs (CR7s?), or is UA still allowed more 76-seaters in their scope clause?

These will be 175SC, configured with only 70 seats and will be operated by ExpressJet.


Thanks, got it. But are they replacing some existing 70-seaters (CR7s or E70s), or does UA have room to add additional 70-seaters without removing other currently active 70-seaters?


The E175SCs will be replacing CRJ-700s (I don't believe the E170s are going anywhere.) UA cannot add any additional 51+ seat aircraft under their current scope agreement....unless they add a 100 seat jet to mainline.
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VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:52 am

So, 8 737MAX-10’s are being delivered this year? Does anyone know if/when UA will announce and show the lie-flat F cabin in them?
Also, are there announcements or assumptions about what routes the 4 new 777-300’s will be on?
I cannot help but think EWR to HK or other big Asian destinations. Maybe ORD to Asia?
I realize the 777-300 is now considered “old tech” but from a pax perspective, especially premium business travelers, (IMHO) UA’s Polaris cabin with the “service tunnel” is a great way to fly for business. The seat is large and private enough, very comfortable for sleep and great ambiance. I prefer the 777-300 over a non refurbished 772 enough for me to go EWR-SFO-HK ETC vs the nonstop cramped in a Diamond seat, next to snoring strangers for 18 hours.
Last Question: I read here that the order for 9 more 789’s will replace some 767’s. Will those 767’s be refurbished first, or left “as is” until those 789’s are delivered? Otherwise, could UA move the Polaris seats from retired 767’s over to the 789, or are the 767 Polaris seats smaller on the 767?
I actually wonder how many different sizes of Polaris seats there are in order to fit WB’s of different widths?
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:02 am

VC10er wrote:
Last Question: I read here that the order for 9 more 789’s will replace some 767’s. Will those 767’s be refurbished first, or left “as is” until those 789’s are delivered?

As is. 7x 763 are not getting Polaris and those are the ones to be retired. They are 652/653/657/658/661/662/663.
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:50 am

hkcanadaexpat wrote:
VC10er wrote:
Last Question: I read here that the order for 9 more 789’s will replace some 767’s. Will those 767’s be refurbished first, or left “as is” until those 789’s are delivered?

As is. 7x 763 are not getting Polaris and those are the ones to be retired. They are 652/653/657/658/661/662/663.


+3 HA 763's + 4 789's were ordered in 2018 to replace the 7 retiring ones. The additional 9x 789's ordered later in 2018 were not designated to replace any specific a/c.
 
wn676
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:51 am

VC10er wrote:
So, 8 737MAX-10’s are being delivered this year? Does anyone know if/when UA will announce and show the lie-flat F cabin in them?
Also, are there announcements or assumptions about what routes the 4 new 777-300’s will be on?
I cannot help but think EWR to HK or other big Asian destinations. Maybe ORD to Asia?
I realize the 777-300 is now considered “old tech” but from a pax perspective, especially premium business travelers, (IMHO) UA’s Polaris cabin with the “service tunnel” is a great way to fly for business. The seat is large and private enough, very comfortable for sleep and great ambiance. I prefer the 777-300 over a non refurbished 772 enough for me to go EWR-SFO-HK ETC vs the nonstop cramped in a Diamond seat, next to snoring strangers for 18 hours.
Last Question: I read here that the order for 9 more 789’s will replace some 767’s. Will those 767’s be refurbished first, or left “as is” until those 789’s are delivered? Otherwise, could UA move the Polaris seats from retired 767’s over to the 789, or are the 767 Polaris seats smaller on the 767?
I actually wonder how many different sizes of Polaris seats there are in order to fit WB’s of different widths?


That’s 8 787-10s coming this year. The MAX 10s don’t start showing up until the latter half of 2020.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
jayunited
Posts: 1950
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:18 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Update on 2019 fleet as posted in newsletter:


New planes for 2019: more efficient, better customer experience

In 2019, we will add the most mainline aircraft to our fleet since 2010 – a total of 40 aircraft, including two of the Boeing 777-300s that were included in the new Boeing order of four 777-300s and 24 more 737 MAXs we announced as part of our earnings release.

Even with the planned retirement during the year of nine of our least-efficient narrowbody aircraft, we will still enjoy a net gain of more than 30 mainline aircraft to support our network growth while at the same time providing a better customer experience and reducing costs, particularly fuel costs.

The incoming mainline aircraft are:
20 737 MAX 9s
8 Boeing 787-10s.
2 Boeing 777-300s
10 Airbus A319s (used).

This great year for aircraft deliveries comes on the heels of another solid year – in 2018, we welcomed 28 mainline aircraft to the United fleet. Those were 10 Boeing 737 MAX 9s, four Boeing 787-9s, four Boeing 777-300s, three Boeing 787-10s, four used Airbus A319s and three used Boeing 767-300s.

As mentioned above, our fleet renewal plan for 2019 includes retiring nine of our oldest aircraft – four A320s, two A319s and three 757-200s. Fleet Planning Strategy Managing Director Mauricio Angel said an order book that includes new and used aircraft can significantly lower both our operating and capital costs, as well as give us the ability to support growth and selectively upgauge aircraft on routes. Replacing a 757 with a 737 MAX results in more than a 20 percent CASM (cost per available seat mile, our unit cost measure) improvement, for instance.

Also, compared to the departing airframes, the used Airbuses we are buying and refurbishing join the fleet with considerably more “green time,” or hours/cycles remaining before an aircraft or component needs inspection, repair or replacement.

That green time can help us avoid major and costly maintenance checks on the departing aircraft, which can be used for spare parts on the remaining fleet. Also, some of the engines on the retiring fleet can help us support the new engine overhaul line for V2500 engines (used on both the A319 and A320) at the San Francisco Maintenance Center.

In addition to the mainline aircraft, in 2019 we will take delivery of 25 of Embraer 175 regional jets for use on United Express routes.


=

319/320 retirements are interesting as UA spent money on life extension programs meant to carry them past 2025. Obviously, something changed with the calculation.


Yes something changed with the calculation and its the major maintenance cost that are coming up on some of these aircraft. The other thing that has changed is the amount of fairly used A319/320s on the market today. When UA announced and spent the money on the life extension program (correct me if I'm wrong) but I don't believe there was a lot of used inventory on the market with much value or "green time". I think the only reason UA is retiring some 319/320s is because we are acquiring used aircraft that we can probably get another 8-10 years of service out of these used frames. If the situation were different I think those retiring aircraft would stick around up to and perhaps past 2025 which was the original plan after life extension.
Also UA is still getting their monies worth out of those frames as they will now be used for spare parts on the remaining fleet. Isn't this something DL did a few years ago bought some used aircraft (I don't remember the type) not to fly them but to use them for spare parts. UA is only doing the opposite we're going to fly the used aircraft and take the frames we already own for spare parts. It may not be the original life extension plan but in my opinion its better than the original and who know how much money UA will now save on 319/320 spare parts and maintenance related cost. I'd wager UA still believes the life extension program was money well spent.
 
jayunited
Posts: 1950
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 1:35 pm

VC10er wrote:
So, 8 737MAX-10’s are being delivered this year? Does anyone know if/when UA will announce and show the lie-flat F cabin in them?
Also, are there announcements or assumptions about what routes the 4 new 777-300’s will be on?
I cannot help but think EWR to HK or other big Asian destinations. Maybe ORD to Asia?
I realize the 777-300 is now considered “old tech” but from a pax perspective, especially premium business travelers, (IMHO) UA’s Polaris cabin with the “service tunnel” is a great way to fly for business. The seat is large and private enough, very comfortable for sleep and great ambiance. I prefer the 777-300 over a non refurbished 772 enough for me to go EWR-SFO-HK ETC vs the nonstop cramped in a Diamond seat, next to snoring strangers for 18 hours.
Last Question: I read here that the order for 9 more 789’s will replace some 767’s. Will those 767’s be refurbished first, or left “as is” until those 789’s are delivered? Otherwise, could UA move the Polaris seats from retired 767’s over to the 789, or are the 767 Polaris seats smaller on the 767?
I actually wonder how many different sizes of Polaris seats there are in order to fit WB’s of different widths?


UA has already announced some MAX-10s will have life flat seating in first. However I wouldn't expect to see any "official" renderings till Q4 2019 at the earliest maybe even Q1 2020 do to the fact those frames will not be joining the fleet till the second half of 2020.
As far as the 77Ws, UA has already announced EWR-HKG will be upguaged to the 77W this spring. But that upguage is utilizing 77Ws already in our fleet it has nothing to do with the additional 4 frames that have yet to be delivered 2 of which are coming later this year.
I think someone further up already addressed the additional 789 order and those aircraft are not specifically replacing 763s on a frame by frame basis. Officially for now UA does not have an official replacement of the 763 fleet.
The oldest 763s which will eventually be retired do not have Polaris seats installed. Those 763s were converted a few years ago from IPTE to the Diamond seats. This is also not to be confused with the 14 former domestically configured (also known on this site as ghetto birds) 763s which also have the diamond seats. The former domestic 763s are some of the youngest 763s in UA 763 fleet and they will have Polaris installed.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:45 pm

jayunited wrote:
VC10er wrote:
So, 8 737MAX-10’s are being delivered this year? Does anyone know if/when UA will announce and show the lie-flat F cabin in them?


UA has already announced some MAX-10s will have life flat seating in first. However I wouldn't expect to see any "official" renderings till Q4 2019 at the earliest maybe even Q1 2020 do to the fact those frames will not be joining the fleet till the second half of 2020.

Do we know if lie flat is UA's first priority with the MAX10's? Or, in other words, are the very first MAX10's intended to retire the oldest P.S. fleet? Or do we think that UA will just take a random delivery here or there out of the incoming general MAX10 domestic fleet to handle premium transcon retirements?
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:07 pm

Thank you!!!!

I totally forgot about the 4 789’s from early last year. So, really that is an additional 13 789’s coming at some point.

I know a 789 is much larger than a 763, but someone way above said that the new order of 9 were meant for 767 replacements...which would obviously be a big bump up from a 763. Another thing I’m very curious about is if UA will create a subfleet of High J (high premium) configuration 789s? I’m dying to see Polaris on a 787, I’m going to try and get on the 787-10 while still doing transcontinental. I think the 787 Boeing interiors are really beautiful on a 787, add United’s Polaris and it will be a real “WOW”

A VERY side comment: yesterday I was on my first (A220??) Swiss, from Geneva to Madrid. I was in First (in a slimline seat, while very attractive with the chrome trim, it was really a negligibleline seat! Nevertheless, I could see why United wanted them at one point. Very pretty airplane, loved the super-mini LED screen overhead. A perfect size between an RJ and a 737. Powerful take off!)
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:17 pm

cosyr wrote:
jayunited wrote:
VC10er wrote:
So, 8 737MAX-10’s are being delivered this year? Does anyone know if/when UA will announce and show the lie-flat F cabin in them?


UA has already announced some MAX-10s will have life flat seating in first. However I wouldn't expect to see any "official" renderings till Q4 2019 at the earliest maybe even Q1 2020 do to the fact those frames will not be joining the fleet till the second half of 2020.

Do we know if lie flat is UA's first priority with the MAX10's? Or, in other words, are the very first MAX10's intended to retire the oldest P.S. fleet? Or do we think that UA will just take a random delivery here or there out of the incoming general MAX10 domestic fleet to handle premium transcon retirements?


Didn’t UA change the mix of 737MAX9 & 10, adding more 10’s just for this purpose? It’s really sad what happened to p.s. - when first launched it was innovative, forward thinking. Today they are really, really behind the competition (unless you’re on a 78J)
I admit that I cannot really envision the lie flat seats on a 737. I’ve seen pics from other airlines, but I am hoping that they are using PriestmanGoode to design them so that the essence of Polaris is visible. I also wonder if they will have a PE section too?
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:26 pm

cosyr wrote:
jayunited wrote:
VC10er wrote:
So, 8 737MAX-10’s are being delivered this year? Does anyone know if/when UA will announce and show the lie-flat F cabin in them?


UA has already announced some MAX-10s will have life flat seating in first. However I wouldn't expect to see any "official" renderings till Q4 2019 at the earliest maybe even Q1 2020 do to the fact those frames will not be joining the fleet till the second half of 2020.

Do we know if lie flat is UA's first priority with the MAX10's? Or, in other words, are the very first MAX10's intended to retire the oldest P.S. fleet? Or do we think that UA will just take a random delivery here or there out of the incoming general MAX10 domestic fleet to handle premium transcon retirements?


I've already heard of a standard domestic MAX10 configuration of something like 20/171 (2 additional Y rows) but I've never seen a LOPA or seat map. It makes sense (7MX is only a 5ft stretch over the 7M9).
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:27 pm

VC10er wrote:
cosyr wrote:
jayunited wrote:

UA has already announced some MAX-10s will have life flat seating in first. However I wouldn't expect to see any "official" renderings till Q4 2019 at the earliest maybe even Q1 2020 do to the fact those frames will not be joining the fleet till the second half of 2020.

Do we know if lie flat is UA's first priority with the MAX10's? Or, in other words, are the very first MAX10's intended to retire the oldest P.S. fleet? Or do we think that UA will just take a random delivery here or there out of the incoming general MAX10 domestic fleet to handle premium transcon retirements?


Didn’t UA change the mix of 737MAX9 & 10, adding more 10’s just for this purpose? It’s really sad what happened to p.s. - when first launched it was innovative, forward thinking. Today they are really, really behind the competition (unless you’re on a 78J)
I admit that I cannot really envision the lie flat seats on a 737. I’ve seen pics from other airlines, but I am hoping that they are using PriestmanGoode to design them so that the essence of Polaris is visible. I also wonder if they will have a PE section too?

I think that moving them to EWR has really hurt their yields compared with DL/AA/B6 (Obviously, the addition of B6 and VX to the competition hurt yields as well). I'm not saying that there isn't still a premium market demand for something above normal domestic F on transcons from EWR, but maybe not as much to justify continued investment. I hope I'm wrong and that it is just UA not wanting to put more money into the 752's before retirement, but I thought they did not have a retirement schedule planned for the RR 752's, so who knows. I agree though, adding true Premium Plus to the transcon fleet would put UA back in competition in a different way. Could you imagine a PS MAX10 with 24+ lieflat (hopefully All Aisle Access) J, 30+ W, a big Y+ section and little to no regular Y, plus maybe the addition of other routes like IAD, SEA, BOS, etc.? UA would really move the market.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:45 pm

cosyr wrote:
I think that moving them to EWR has really hurt their yields compared with DL/AA/B6 (Obviously, the addition of B6 and VX to the competition hurt yields as well). I'm not saying that there isn't still a premium market demand for something above normal domestic F on transcons from EWR, but maybe not as much to justify continued investment. I hope I'm wrong and that it is just UA not wanting to put more money into the 752's before retirement, but I thought they did not have a retirement schedule planned for the RR 752's, so who knows. I agree though, adding true Premium Plus to the transcon fleet would put UA back in competition in a different way. Could you imagine a PS MAX10 with 24+ lieflat (hopefully All Aisle Access) J, 30+ W, a big Y+ section and little to no regular Y, plus maybe the addition of other routes like IAD, SEA, BOS, etc.? UA would really move the market.


Part of the reason UA moved to EWR in the first place is because premium TCON yields were depressed by B6 entering the market with sub-$600 advance purchase business class fares, which everyone had to match. Delta's strategy to cope was to increase gauge significantly (764/330), bringing lots of capacity into the market. AA dialed back on SFO but relies on the only true F product in the market to continue to capture the high end of premium traffic. AS (with the VX merger) will effectively exit the premium TCONs, replacing it with what will be, by comparison to peers, a PE product.

UA had a high-cost station at JFK that was no longer generating the gold-plated returns it had for years (AA/UA literally printed money on the premium transcons for decades). I don't think moving the operation to EWR hurt the NYC-local component of traffic... truth be told, it probably improved it... but it definitely impacted the West Coast point of sale which has a clear historical preference for JFK. The part about the EWR-LAX/SFO operation that differs from JFK is scope. EWR-LAX/SFO are hub-hub routes with massive year-round demand in both premium and economy cabins, so a heavy-J, low-Y configuration isn't optimal, either. In the most recent investor call, UA leadership noted their desire to increase premium cabin capacity on the TCONs, so it's not a matter of having too many seats up front, either, or that the routes are not performing as expected. I think, moving forward, UA intends to fly more widebodies in those markets, which have sufficient premium capacity but also the large Y cabins the demand, pricing environment and network needs call for.

As for the 757s, UA has some ships that will reach their 30th birthdays this year. By any measure (hours, cycles, age, dispatch reliability, maintenance visits/costs, etc.), these frames are at the replacement stage. The former p.s. 75K fleet are going to be the first to go because of their age and non-standard engines. That has been the plan for some time, but not as well-known, because UA only publishes its fleet plan for the current year. UA has also invested more in life-extension programs for the larger, ETOPS RR-powered 757 fleet, which is common with the much younger 757-300s, so they aren't going anywhere for a few more years.
 
jayunited
Posts: 1950
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:31 pm

cosyr wrote:
I think that moving them to EWR has really hurt their yields compared with DL/AA/B6 (Obviously, the addition of B6 and VX to the competition hurt yields as well). I'm not saying that there isn't still a premium market demand for something above normal domestic F on transcons from EWR, but maybe not as much to justify continued investment. I hope I'm wrong and that it is just UA not wanting to put more money into the 752's before retirement, but I thought they did not have a retirement schedule planned for the RR 752's, so who knows. I agree though, adding true Premium Plus to the transcon fleet would put UA back in competition in a different way. Could you imagine a PS MAX10 with 24+ lieflat (hopefully All Aisle Access) J, 30+ W, a big Y+ section and little to no regular Y, plus maybe the addition of other routes like IAD, SEA, BOS, etc.? UA would really move the market.


Okay here is a article from Flight Global published in 2018 where Scott Kirby talks about the 737-10Max and lie flat seating. The article does not address your specific and valid concerns all we know it there will be lie flat seating on some of the 737-10Max. Will the aircraft will lie flat seating also include premium plus I have no idea, nor do I know how many lie flat seat UA intends to install on these aircraft.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 0s-451309/

As far as your other question from your earlier post will UA prioritize lie flat deliveries over standard configured deliveries? I don't know the answer to that question at this time. I can only assume they would prioritize the lie flat version over the standard configuration because it would allow UA to deploy this product on multiple coast to coast routes which is something UA has stated they would like to do expand this product beyond EWR/BOS-SFO/LAX.
 
iahcsr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:47 pm

39M
N47512 B1 23Jan
Still a whole lot of nothing on the 78J in CHS.
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:20 pm

codc10 wrote:
cosyr wrote:
jayunited wrote:

UA has already announced some MAX-10s will have life flat seating in first. However I wouldn't expect to see any "official" renderings till Q4 2019 at the earliest maybe even Q1 2020 do to the fact those frames will not be joining the fleet till the second half of 2020.

Do we know if lie flat is UA's first priority with the MAX10's? Or, in other words, are the very first MAX10's intended to retire the oldest P.S. fleet? Or do we think that UA will just take a random delivery here or there out of the incoming general MAX10 domestic fleet to handle premium transcon retirements?


I've already heard of a standard domestic MAX10 configuration of something like 20/171 (2 additional Y rows) but I've never seen a LOPA or seat map. It makes sense (7MX is only a 5ft stretch over the 7M9).


I believe the configuration will be 20/169 because the Max 10 will actually feature the mid cabin door which the Max 9 does not. This will block 2 seats in economy therefore you will only have 4 in one row.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:27 am

I think the p.s. fleet will disappear fairly quickly as they probably should. It always confused me they are still using crappy gogo service and didn’t even get the better KA or KU satellite other aircraft have.

My thoughts on the current p.s. markets (no inside knowledge what so ever)
- The high-J 767 (76L) configuration will do the heavy lifting heavy lifting of premium pax.
- Max 10 with either 12 or 16 lie flats will take the lower premium demand time slots.
- Max 10 configuration will be used on a expanded network of premium lie flat service. Probably EWR/IAD-SFO,LAX,SEA,SAN and some through ORD and DEN to boost/maximize utilization where they can be capture premium pricing.
- TATL 757 will cover the remaining gaps once the p.s. birds are retired but will be kept keep away from the most critical premium periods due to subpar product.

How domestic lie flat service is marketed/handled will be interesting. Today, they’re not maximizing value on TATL and Domestic 777’s offering lie flat as it’s very hit or miss and most don’t know about the random assignments. (corporate contracts may dictate to some degree city pair lie flat availability and value is captured there if large enough to justify). With the expected broader network of lie flat city pairs, it needs branding for recognition and value maximization.

Two major questions: what will it be called and will it be a different class of service?

With PremiumPlus on the 76L config, this could be sold as Domestic First as it’s basically the same seat, yet better leg rest. Does it make sense to put 8 “PremiumPlus” or domestic first class seats on the Max 10s, effectively making them 3 class? 12 lie flat, 8 Domestic first? 16 lie flat probably fits in the same space as a hypothetical 12/8 combo. I think 3 class is very doubtful but an interesting study.

How are the lie flats branded? Polaris? Polaris Domestic? United Coast (once rumored)? Do you include that branding for legacy Diamond seats on 777 domestic and TATL 757 flying domestic pairs? Probably but that’s a bit dangerous. They should at least do Polaris colored seat covers and perhaps some panel replacements to align the color schemes before doing that.

Another question is whether Hawaii can deliver premium revenue for the lie flats (doubtful but the history of the domestic 777’s is a bit interesting).
Last edited by Okcflyer on Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
heretothere
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:31 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
codc10 wrote:
cosyr wrote:
Do we know if lie flat is UA's first priority with the MAX10's? Or, in other words, are the very first MAX10's intended to retire the oldest P.S. fleet? Or do we think that UA will just take a random delivery here or there out of the incoming general MAX10 domestic fleet to handle premium transcon retirements?


I've already heard of a standard domestic MAX10 configuration of something like 20/171 (2 additional Y rows) but I've never seen a LOPA or seat map. It makes sense (7MX is only a 5ft stretch over the 7M9).


I believe the configuration will be 20/169 because the Max 10 will actually feature the mid cabin door which the Max 9 does not. This will block 2 seats in economy therefore you will only have 4 in one row.


Can’t they just plug the door like on the MAX 9? Assuming they can, I think we could see a 24/165 config that doesn’t require it.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:12 am

heretothere wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
codc10 wrote:

I've already heard of a standard domestic MAX10 configuration of something like 20/171 (2 additional Y rows) but I've never seen a LOPA or seat map. It makes sense (7MX is only a 5ft stretch over the 7M9).


I believe the configuration will be 20/169 because the Max 10 will actually feature the mid cabin door which the Max 9 does not. This will block 2 seats in economy therefore you will only have 4 in one row.


Can’t they just plug the door like on the MAX 9? Assuming they can, I think we could see a 24/165 config that doesn’t require it.


If they were to put in a plug they would not be able to add a single seat because the limit would be 189.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:21 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
heretothere wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

I believe the configuration will be 20/169 because the Max 10 will actually feature the mid cabin door which the Max 9 does not. This will block 2 seats in economy therefore you will only have 4 in one row.


Can’t they just plug the door like on the MAX 9? Assuming they can, I think we could see a 24/165 config that doesn’t require it.


If they were to put in a plug they would not be able to add a single seat because the limit would be 189.


Bingo... I forgot the limit with current door configuration is 189 (had 199 in my head).
 
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antoniemey
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:26 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
heretothere wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

I believe the configuration will be 20/169 because the Max 10 will actually feature the mid cabin door which the Max 9 does not. This will block 2 seats in economy therefore you will only have 4 in one row.


Can’t they just plug the door like on the MAX 9? Assuming they can, I think we could see a 24/165 config that doesn’t require it.


If they were to put in a plug they would not be able to add a single seat because the limit would be 189.


739 and MAX9 are both configured 20/159 (that's 179 total seats). MAX10 without an additional exit would gain 10 seats over the 9 at 189 seats. And the configuration he proposes (24/165) happens to be exactly 189 seats.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:36 am

antoniemey wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
heretothere wrote:

Can’t they just plug the door like on the MAX 9? Assuming they can, I think we could see a 24/165 config that doesn’t require it.


If they were to put in a plug they would not be able to add a single seat because the limit would be 189.


739 and MAX9 are both configured 20/159 (that's 179 total seats). MAX10 without an additional exit would gain 10 seats over the 9 at 189 seats. And the configuration he proposes (24/165) happens to be exactly 189 seats.


Yes but airlines are always reconfiguring their aircraft. For instance, project Oasis @AA, Delta One, United Polaris, UA high density 763s. When an aircraft is reconfigured the airline (usually) adds seats but if the Max 10 is used at 189 seats, that means one could never be added if a plug is in place. But if the mid door is used the aircraft would now be able to hold up to 230 passengers.
 
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antoniemey
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:40 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Yes but airlines are always reconfiguring their aircraft. For instance, project Oasis @AA, Delta One, United Polaris, UA high density 763s. When an aircraft is reconfigured the airline (usually) adds seats but if the Max 10 is used at 189 seats, that means one could never be added if a plug is in place. But if the mid door is used the aircraft would now be able to hold up to 230 passengers.


Given that at least part of the MAX 10 fleet is going to have lie flat seats up front, I doubt if hitting the maximum seat count is actually that large a concern. They might go premium heavy on that model... or they might take some with the extra door and some with a plug. Or, failing that, I'm sure it's possible to get the door activated later on if they find they need it badly enough. Not cheaply or easily, necessarily, but possible.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:48 am

73G:
N21723 exited SFO 2759/23Jan as Domestic unit, ex-GUM

763:
N646UA exited MCO 2762/23Jan
N656UA entered MCO 2761/23Jan

77W:
N2341U sked to exit SFO 837/24Jan, fully expect PE, but seat map doesn't show yet
N2243U entered SFO 838/22Jan, expect PE install
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:41 pm

The first PMCO 77E Polaris Mod Bird test flight 1/26! N79011
 
iahcsr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:11 pm

calpsafltskeds wrote:
73G:
N21723 exited SFO 2759/23Jan as Domestic unit, ex-GUM

763:
N646UA exited MCO 2762/23Jan
N656UA entered MCO 2761/23Jan

77W:
N2341U sked to exit SFO 837/24Jan, fully expect PE, but seat map doesn't show yet
N2243U entered SFO 838/22Jan, expect PE install

N2341U PE confirmed, showing on UA837/24Jan

78J
N12004 B1 BOE40 CHSCHS 24Jan ... Finally some activity
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:05 pm

IM-VERY-HO: I think UA’s strategy towards high premium configurations for high paying biz pax, should be applied to the 73M-10, but even more so. Perhaps I’m just a dreamer, but I think if they could design a really nice, private lie-flat that has the basic look of Polaris in a large section, then the rest be PE it could be a highly desired, sought after premier aircraft. It could be a sub-branded (United Plus, Plus) and only fly at peek business transcon hours, and timed to connect to certain Asian flights and maybe redeyes. A sort of hybrid of mainline and private.
To me the problem is that they should use international Polaris 767s, but they don’t have enough frames. (I have no clue how many young enough 767s are on the used market?) And the 797 just is too far off, and they will never buy a new Airbus A321 just for transcon.
I just cannot see what will truly work and be consistent for UA. It’s a bad combo today. I can’t see them sink the proper amount of money on a 757 at this point, and the HD 777 would have the worst front cabin compaired to DL and AA, but might be fine for Boston and IAD.
Last: the one daily flight from SFO-MIA (FLL?) in a regular old 737 is a very long ride. For their SFO elites it would an awesome relief, and even “perhaps” get some Florida based fliers.
What does AA use from MIA to SFO/LAX.
I think that taking top spot on transcons is there for UA, but ONLY if they innovate and leapfrog the competition.
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:24 pm

VC10er wrote:
I think that taking top spot on transcons is there for UA, but ONLY if they innovate and leapfrog the competition.

Leapfroging would be difficult, as AA has true 3 class, with All Aisle Access First Class, and is the only airline with First in addition to Business. DL may have a less consistent seat, but has expanded their transcon service to many routes, outside of NYC-SFO/LAX. In this instance, I think just staying competitive will be fine, what the competition has is good, and UA has some unique hub benefits (particularly SFO and somewhat EWR) that will make it compelling if their product is just raised to the same level.
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:45 pm

cosyr wrote:
VC10er wrote:
I think that taking top spot on transcons is there for UA, but ONLY if they innovate and leapfrog the competition.

Leapfroging would be difficult, as AA has true 3 class, with All Aisle Access First Class, and is the only airline with First in addition to Business. DL may have a less consistent seat, but has expanded their transcon service to many routes, outside of NYC-SFO/LAX. In this instance, I think just staying competitive will be fine, what the competition has is good, and UA has some unique hub benefits (particularly SFO and somewhat EWR) that will make it compelling if their product is just raised to the same level.


While I have not flown the AA transcon with a true First Class- what aircraft will UA use in order to level the playing field at least? I fly UA to SFO probably 3-4 times a year, and have noticed that each year that goes by the First Class interiors are getting worse and worse...the time before last I was really shocked that it was so bad. The panel by the floor with horizontal air vents was totally missing and exposing wires and insulated tubes etc. That on top of the scuffs, scratches, and foam rubber sticking out from all around the galley and bulkheads, peeling wall paper. I love UA wholeheartedly. But these 757s are in really bad shape, have been for a long time.
Honestly, do you think the 737MAX-10 can replace the 757’s? I would love for them to be the answer, but they don’t seem large enough.
HQ must realize that those 757’s are a real sore spot while so many other parts of UA are really looking awesome.
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:35 pm

VC10er wrote:
cosyr wrote:
VC10er wrote:
I think that taking top spot on transcons is there for UA, but ONLY if they innovate and leapfrog the competition.

Leapfroging would be difficult, as AA has true 3 class, with All Aisle Access First Class, and is the only airline with First in addition to Business. DL may have a less consistent seat, but has expanded their transcon service to many routes, outside of NYC-SFO/LAX. In this instance, I think just staying competitive will be fine, what the competition has is good, and UA has some unique hub benefits (particularly SFO and somewhat EWR) that will make it compelling if their product is just raised to the same level.


While I have not flown the AA transcon with a true First Class- what aircraft will UA use in order to level the playing field at least? I fly UA to SFO probably 3-4 times a year, and have noticed that each year that goes by the First Class interiors are getting worse and worse...the time before last I was really shocked that it was so bad. The panel by the floor with horizontal air vents was totally missing and exposing wires and insulated tubes etc. That on top of the scuffs, scratches, and foam rubber sticking out from all around the galley and bulkheads, peeling wall paper. I love UA wholeheartedly. But these 757s are in really bad shape, have been for a long time.
Honestly, do you think the 737MAX-10 can replace the 757’s? I would love for them to be the answer, but they don’t seem large enough.
HQ must realize that those 757’s are a real sore spot while so many other parts of UA are really looking awesome.

It is embarrassing. Does it require a full overhaul to put on a new side panel? If the seats and bins would have to be removed, I can see the delay, but I suspect they delay, because they would rather do a clean complete overhaul or not waste a penny.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:23 pm

fun2fly wrote:
The first PMCO 77E Polaris Mod Bird test flight 1/26! N79011



Yes I saw it on the scheduled so exciting if all goes well N79011 is scheduled to ferry HKG-EWR 1/27.
Lets keep this Polaris Modification going full speed ahead. By April UA should have made a significant dent in the overall 77E fleet but I think only 2 maybe 3 GE powered 77Es will have been modified by April. Hopefully the summer schedule will allowed UA to have 2 GE powered 77Es in modification at HKG and perhaps 2 PW powered 77Es in modification at XMN.
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:23 pm

It's amazing UA has 9 777's out at one time (10% of the fleet): 1 Paint, 1 PE Add to 77W, 2 Maint, 5 Polaris Mod. Plus 3 more 767's in Polaris Mod. With that volume, I'd say there will be many happy summer travelers that will get a Polaris bird upgrade that isn't firm in the schedule. Good stuff.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:07 pm

fun2fly wrote:
It's amazing UA has 9 777's out at one time (10% of the fleet): 1 Paint, 1 PE Add to 77W, 2 Maint, 5 Polaris Mod. Plus 3 more 767's in Polaris Mod. With that volume, I'd say there will be many happy summer travelers that will get a Polaris bird upgrade that isn't firm in the schedule. Good stuff.


This is an aggressive pace. It is hard to be critical of United's current level of commitment to the project, and rightfully so, as the IPTE business class product isn't globally competitive in 2019.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:56 am

763:
N656UA sked to exit MCO 2751/25Jan (delayed until 1/26)
N672UA entered MCO 2751/25Jan

772:
N79001 test hop 2700/26Jan at HKG. Should be soon to depart with Polaris after STC.

78X:
N12004 B2 flight 1/25/19 at CHS
 
VC10er
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:34 am

Yesterday I flew home; Madrid to EWR on a UA 763, a business trip that started EWR to GVA. My trip started off by a couple hours in the amazing EWR Polaris Lounge, the start of a flawless trip. The 3rd leg on Swiss to Madrid was perfect. I do this kind of flying “almost” too much, but I can never say UA anything but great. While the dude next to me was terrifying looking with bad plastic surgery and spray tan, (one reason I can’t wait for Polaris) I actually wasn’t let down in the old Diamond seat. The new boarding system seems to be working well, departed a few minutes early, the food was actually pretty good, I slept 6 solid hours and arrived 1/2 hour early! A fantastic crew, with a special shout out to Elena!
So, question, “about” when will the odds become about 50/50 that one will find themselves on a true Polaris aircraft- adding the 77Ws, 78J and refurbished WBs are in service?
And are they on schedule for all aircraft earmarked for Polaris refurbs really be done by end of 2020? (Even 764’s?)
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 1:45 pm

VC10er wrote:
So, question, “about” when will the odds become about 50/50 that one will find themselves on a true Polaris aircraft- adding the 77Ws, 78J and refurbished WBs are in service?
And are they on schedule for all aircraft earmarked for Polaris refurbs really be done by end of 2020? (Even 764’s?)


I think (and I could be wrong if I am someone please correct me) the modifications will go a lot quicker on the 787 fleet. The 787s are some of the newest wide bodies in the fleet so UA is getting as much of their monies worth out of those diamond seats as they possibly can.
Right now UA is making great strides with the 77E fleet right now there are 13 PW powered 77E with Polaris another 4 PW Powered 77E are at XMN for Polaris modifications (3 went in in December and 1 in January). The GE powered 77Es the first one with Polaris does it test flight today if all goes well it will ferry back to EWR on 1/27 and a seconded GE powered 77E tail number N78013 is already at HKG for Polaris. UA has a total of fifty five 77Es and I would estimate that by April or at the latest May of this year at least 22 of those frames (combined 77Es) should be complete. If UA throughout the busy summer schedule can keep at least two 77E lines open at XMN and one at HKG by the time the season ends (October 31, 2019) 50% or more of the entire 77E fleet should be complete.
Looking at the 763s, 13 frames have already been modified and UA has 3 lines open at HKG for the 763 fleet and there are 3 at HKG for modification 1 is getting standard Polaris configuration while the other 2 are being converted into the high premium Polaris configuration. This means only 15 frames remain if you subtract the seven 1992/93 frames that will be retired fairly soon. I know I'm jumping the gun a bit but if you subtract the 7 retiring frames it means once these 3 frames that currently in modification come out 50% of the 763 that are remaining in the fleet will be done. Also moving forward the modification on the remaining 763 fleet should move a lot quicker because the remains frames shouldn't require as much work as the older IPTE configured 763 required. With the 763 fleet I think it is safe to say if you subtract out the 7 retiring frames by October 31, 2019 at least 60% maybe even up to 70% of the 763 fleet should be done and if we leapfrog to December 31, 2019 I think 75% maybe as high as 85% of the 763 fleet should be done if UA can keep up with this aggressive schedule. It would be nice if the entire 763 fleet was done by the end of 2019 to allow UA to either start on the 764s or 788/9s but I'm not sure that is possible, maybe others with more knowledge can chime in on if its possible to have Polaris installation completed on the 763 fleet by the end of 2019 and if its possible to have the 77E fleet done by spring 2020.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:04 pm

The fleet changes and fleet status posts at the start of this thread have been updated.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:23 pm

Regarding your question on 50/50 Polaris.
At this time there are 47 Polaris aircraft, including 3 78X that are flying Domestic.
There are 160 Widebodies (excluding 772A Domestic aircraft).
8 units are in mod and 3 units (HA have never flown w/o Polaris)
So, there are 149 in service International widebodies, or 31.5% chance of a Polaris aircraft (note that some routes have 100% chance, so many routes would be under 30%)
Mod time is running about 55 days per unit, so that averages 6.875 days between completions with 8 mod lines.
Along with 6 more 78X deliveries by April, there should be 13 more Polaris aircraft completed through mod.
That would mean 47 + 6 + 13 would total 66 with Polaris by end of April.
66 of 158 that should be in service (160 + 6 78X - 8 in mod)
That's 42% by end of April. If 8 mod lines continue until mid June, it may go up another 3-5%.
50% should be attained by somewhere in July or August, assuming fewer mod lines in summer.

As Jayunited states, there may be some 763 retirements or maybe those aircraft could be moved to Transcon or Hawaiian operations, thus percentage of Polaris on international flights would go up up to 5% from the above estimates. I also agree 76L converstions could go faster than 763 Polaris conversions as Y isn't changed as much - it probably depends on if routine maintenance is included in the mod conversion process.
 
iahcsr
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Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:51 pm

78J
N12004 C1 26Jan... Boom, boom,boom. B1,B2,C1.. Not wasting any time with this one.
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
iahcsr
Posts: 4777
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 2:59 pm

Re: United Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:10 pm

78J
N12005 B1 CHSCHS. Playing catch-up quite quickly it appears
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
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