BMcD
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:50 am

Some of the people replying in here that it would be a great idea were the exact same ones that were saying that the 75 was unacceptable because it was a single aisle, cramped for those distances, not built with all the amenities, etc are now the ones saying it is a great idea (fanboys I am guessing).

Personally, I think this stretch is a bit much and is going to take a bit more than what people are thinking to get it out. By time Airbus were to get it to market, the market shifts again. It has been shown so many times that the market changes fast and you have to be quick to bring things when the market demands (see 748, 388, great planes wrong market time).
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Devilfish
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:19 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Lockheed has Skunk Works, Boeing has Phantom Works, what trendy name does Airbus have? Alas these divisions were mostly for secret military projects. The A322 would never fit there since They have leaked plenty of information through Leeham News.

Given all the skulduggery and subterfuge surrounding these developments, one can be excused for likening it to a top-level strategic weapon. And since you asked for the name of the French player... would "Oeuvres Panthere" sound right? :listen: .....

Image
https://pics.me.me/the-pink-panther-the ... 293956.png


:cool2: I think Inspector Clouseau would approve. :biggrin:
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RJMAZ
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:41 am

The A322 will be a slam dunk. Low development cost and it will take a big chunk off the 797.

Launching now will only cause airlines to swap their A321 orders.

I do think the biggest problem with the A322 will be engine thrust. The maximum takeoff weight might be the same as the A321XLR but the longer fuselage gives extra surface drag. This is the same reason the 787-10 needed more thrust than the 787-9 despite having the same takeoff weight.

Pratts engines are struggling at the higher thrust settings so it might be quite some years for them to get that sorted and provide an extra 3,000lb of thrust.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:51 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The A322 will be a slam dunk. Low development cost and it will take a big chunk off the 797.

Launching now will only cause airlines to swap their A321 orders.

I do think the biggest problem with the A322 will be engine thrust. The maximum takeoff weight might be the same as the A321XLR but the longer fuselage gives extra surface drag. This is the same reason the 787-10 needed more thrust than the 787-9 despite having the same takeoff weight.

Pratts engines are struggling at the higher thrust settings so it might be quite some years for them to get that sorted and provide an extra 3,000lb of thrust.


When you say slam dunk, are you assuming an all new wing or that they will use the same wing? The small wing is a big constraint to deal with.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:25 am

New wing, new wingbox, new engine, new landing gear. Might as well be a clean sheet. The platform is dated. Airbus is currently working on the laminar flow wing intended for a NB.
Having a common type rating with the A220 will also be beneficial. The A320 family is probably stretched to its limits now.

A220-500 moving into A320 territory, A320 replaced by a A321 sized aircraft, A321 replaced by a "A322" seems like it would make more sense.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:28 am

airbazar wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
FatCat wrote:
Is the A321 really so much less expensive to operate than an A330-200 (or -800)?

Summary: At flight ranges suitable for the A321, the A321 is a lot more efficient. Huge more.

For what it's worth, TAP's CEO stated when they ordered the A321LR that on their TATL routes, 2xA321 would be cheaper than 1xA330.


O.K. Also, aircraft purchase is less than 10% of airline costs, and fuel is about 50% of airline costs. And 2xA321 costs less to fly that 1xA330.

I'm saying your right, but not because the planes cost less. It's because they burn less fuel.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:34 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
[When you say slam dunk, are you assuming an all new wing or that they will use the same wing? The small wing is a big constraint to deal with.

No new wing. Just a simple stretch of the A321XLR with the same MTOW. It is by far the most obvious solution. Such an A322's range will be significantly reduced, optimised for short haul CASM so it wont need a huge long range wing. Any extra fuselage weight of the stretch and the extra passengers has to taken out of the fuel load. So a sinole stretch A322's range will probably be similar to the current A321NEO non LR model.

I don't see why the A322 needs to be the longest range member of the family with its own totally unique wing. Sharing 95% commonality with the A321XLR would be the best value for money. The A321XLR becomes the long range model with 4500nm range and the A322 is the high capacity best CASM model with 3500nm range.

If anything the A321XLR MTOW increase, landing gear strengthening are all required to make the A322 work.

The normal A321NEO and A321LR would get discontinued for production reasons and Airbus can just reduce the A321XLR MTOW on paper.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:58 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
[When you say slam dunk, are you assuming an all new wing or that they will use the same wing? The small wing is a big constraint to deal with.

No new wing. Just a simple stretch of the A321XLR with the same MTOW. It is by far the most obvious solution. Such an A322's range will be significantly reduced, optimised for short haul CASM so it wont need a huge long range wing. Any extra fuselage weight of the stretch and the extra passengers has to taken out of the fuel load. So a sinole stretch A322's range will probably be similar to the current A321NEO non LR model.

I don't see why the A322 needs to be the longest range member of the family with its own totally unique wing. Sharing 95% commonality with the A321XLR would be the best value for money. The A321XLR becomes the long range model with 4500nm range and the A322 is the high capacity best CASM model with 3500nm range.

If anything the A321XLR MTOW increase, landing gear strengthening are all required to make the A322 work.

The normal A321NEO and A321LR would get discontinued for production reasons and Airbus can just reduce the A321XLR MTOW on paper.


I suspect many of the criticisms of the 737-900 would come back. I also suspect flying at 28,000 ft won’t be viewed as a positive. Unless they go to triple slotted flaps (remember that Airbus added double slotted flaps to the A321 to give it reasonable runway performance ), runway performance may be an issue. I think slam dunk is a bit generous although early days A321 family sales were nothing to be ashamed of.
 
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:01 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
I suspect many of the criticisms of the 737-900 would come back. I also suspect flying at 28,000 ft won’t be viewed as a positive. Unless they go to triple slotted flaps (remember that Airbus added double slotted flaps to the A321 to give it reasonable runway performance ), runway performance may be an issue. I think slam dunk is a bit generous although early days A321 family sales were nothing to be ashamed of.

I don't think that is a valid example. The 737-900 had a range of 2200nm the 737-900ER came up to 2900nm.

As history shows the stretch model always starts selling better as MTOW increases and engine improvements come in.

An A322 in 1995 would have been lucky to fly 2000nm as the A321 could only over 3200nm at the low 93T MTOW. This would be worse than the original 737-900.

The A321NEO pumped that range up to 3500nm at 93T. The A321LR went further to 4000nm at 97T. At this point an A322 at 97T a simple stretch would be able to exceed 3000nm. Some say 3000nm wikipedia range is the bare minimum required to sell in huge numbers.

A 101T A321XLR will push 4500nm. We are at the point where a simple stretch A322 would be in the sweet spot. It doesn't need a bigger wing, in fact with every engine PIP it will be able to carry less fuel to fly the same mission.

The A322 at 101T with the current wing would sell very well. Sure maybe not as good as a brand new carbon winged model but good enough.

In terms of the 797. When competing on short haul the best CASM would usually win. The A322 would do well here as it would be very light per passenger. You don't need fancy wings and engines for short haul as shown by the A330NEO having no advantage over the CEO on short trips. The A321XLR will target the 797 on medium haul thin routes. Airlines always prefer frequency over capacity going with the smallest aircraft that can fly the route with a normal payload. This is an advantage the A321XLR will have over the 797. The might have a slight CASM advantage but so did the A380. The CASM advantage has to be big enough to justify the size increase.
 
BREECH
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:05 am

musman9853 wrote:
except boeing has the cash flow to easily develop new products, airbus doesnt have that same financial freedom.

How did you deduce that? Especially the second part. Airbus actually sells more planes at higher prices. Boeing has to dump their MAXs to keep the line busy. 787 sells at or even below cost with $32B spent on it. I don't see all those problems with Airbus. Do you know something I don't?
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BREECH
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:08 am

musman9853 wrote:
we pretty much know for sure the NMA-6x and -7x specs

Do they. Well, I don't. Could "we" tell me what the specs are and what are the sources of the said specs? If it's Richard Aboulafia, the Vice-President, analyst and the only employee of the Teal Group, don't even bother quoting that. :-)
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:15 am

DL747400 wrote:
While the NMA is shaping up to a larger market

WHAT larger market? There is NO market for NMA. At all. Nobody wants A310 or 753 sized airplanes. What airlines want is to squeeze more people into existing platforms and at lower cost. Until technology takes another step to make a plane the size of A330-800 lighter, cheaper and more economical than A320, it will not happen. And that's not going to materialize in the next 20-30 years.
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rheinwaldner
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:19 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
The article I quoted above from June was pretty clear.

That's your favorite article, right? You posted it with enough diligence, that I know it word by word. Be careful to not miss the point, when it became an old hat.
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:33 am

BREECH wrote:

Hope it helps. :-)


kitplane01 wrote:


A lot, thanks! :bigthumbsup:
May my post not hurt your feelings
 
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:42 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
Lockheed has Skunk Works, Boeing has Phantom Works, what trendy name does Airbus have?

Oooooooooh, that could be interesting! It depends which country gets the task to name it. If it's Spain, it'll be Tienda Barcelona to emphasize that Catalonia is still part of the country. If it's Britain, it'll be Project Pink Duck 289 since the naming convention is a color, a noun and a numerical showing the number of years since the Queen's birth. If it's Germany, it'll be Deutschegeheimindustrieproduktionsbetriebmanufakturgeselschäft GmBH. And if it's France, there is no other way... It's the Projet d'Estaing.
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:49 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
I suspect many of the criticisms of the 737-900 would come back. I also suspect flying at 28,000 ft won’t be viewed as a positive. Unless they go to triple slotted flaps (remember that Airbus added double slotted flaps to the A321 to give it reasonable runway performance ), runway performance may be an issue. I think slam dunk is a bit generous although early days A321 family sales were nothing to be ashamed of.


A321NEO @93t MTOW takes off in under 2000m ( with double slotted flaps )
737-800NG uses 2300m, the 737-900NG uses 3000m ( simple data extraction from WP:EN :-)
no immediate data for the MAX8, MAX9 MAX10 but with weight gain and all they won't perform any better than the NG, right?

MY guess would be that Airbus has gains available via fiddling with the High Lift arrangement
and improving on fairings ( see the SHARP option.)
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keesje
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:57 am

Slug71 wrote:
New wing, new wingbox, new engine, new landing gear. Might as well be a clean sheet. The platform is dated. Airbus is currently working on the laminar flow wing intended for a NB.
Having a common type rating with the A220 will also be beneficial. The A320 family is probably stretched to its limits now.

A220-500 moving into A320 territory, A320 replaced by a A321 sized aircraft, A321 replaced by a "A322" seems like it would make more sense.


I think if you would measure the A320 program against a traditional product life cycle model, they are on top at this moment. An unprecedented backlog, large existing after market fleets, dominant market share and significant opportunities to even extend production, with the A318/A319 decline well covered by a new ramping up A220 product line.

An A320.5, A321XLR and A322 provide IMO viable business cases for product extension. 72/Month and higher production rates are being discussed with the supply chain.

Image

Of course a new wing could be done, but I it seems Airbus has family commonality / standardization high on the priority list. "Milking" the current supply chains and FAL's in Europe, Asia and the US seems to have the highest priority.

Image

The performance wise sub-optimization (smallish wing) for an A321XLR/A322 could be acceptable, because of limited competition and high demand. Getting A322's to market from 2023 with a quick ramp up to say 15-25/month, using existing technology & supply chains seems now to have the preference in TLS. Grab the market share based on commonality and low costs/risks, continue research / discuss further new NB and medium flight requirements for a decision later on in the next decade.

Image
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parapente
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:17 am

It's not that a reduced range 322 is not the natural next step to the 101tonne XLR- it probably is.Particularly as a shorter range plays into the strength of the existing wing and not against it.But.As been said previously - and many times ,Airbus are in 'production hell' at the moment with the 320 family.And so are their engine partners.
There is absolutly no point in launching an aircaft their customers can't have.Indeed ( as stated above) it would just make things considerably worse as customers would start delaying and deferring their existing orders creating an even bigger muddle.Even Airbus just talking about the XLR could create problems for the ( band aid) LR ( which one would you prefer?).
I imagine their hand is being forced by Boeing's 797 work, but it's hard to tell.
IMHO if one could magically remove all their production issues then Airbus would happily launch and develop both the XLR and the small stretched 322 tomorrow, using the same beefed up platform.
One delivering 200-206 pax in two classes 4,500nm plus ( as stated by Airbus). The other delivering 250 pax ( one class) circa 3000nm.Whats not to like .( Hell they might even apply the same stretch to the 320 and make it a 200 seater).How cost efficient might such a programme be?
But all of it is simply hot air as they simply do not have the production to meet their present orders and selling what you already have is far more profitable!Airbus isn't an A.net fan forum it's a hard core business.But I have no doubt that all the necessary internal computer simulation work has all been completed a long while ago.

Note.Boeing right now has committed to absolutly nothing.Remember they banged on incessantly about the Sonic Cruiser with revised shapes etc etc.Then suddenly in a huge volte face it turned out to be a highly efficient 767/772er replacement programme.With Airbus being caught absolutly flat footed shouting 'Chinese copy'.

Who is to say they won't 'can' the MOM tomorrow ( no one can see the market other than them it seems) and launch a complete replacement programme for the venerable 737.Far from impossible imho.Then suddenly these new Airbus concepts will look like band-aid solutions overnight.
 
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keesje
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:29 pm

parapente wrote:
Note.Boeing right now has committed to absolutly nothing.Remember they banged on incessantly about the Sonic Cruiser with revised shapes etc etc.Then suddenly in a huge volte face it turned out to be a highly efficient 767/772er replacement programme. With Airbus being caught absolutly flat footed shouting 'Chinese copy'.

Who is to say they won't 'can' the MOM tomorrow ( no one can see the market other than them it seems) and launch a complete replacement programme for the venerable 737.Far from impossible imho.Then suddenly these new Airbus concepts will look like band-aid solutions overnight.


I always kept that option open, naming it small NMA, single aisle MoM. Maybe the time has come for that & it would have the higher priority. Sell off the large current 737MAX backlog and go for innovation, combining technology the 757/767 or A330/340 way. https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1908/45573445721_62a27a3254_o.jpg. But sofar, Leeham confirms, the twin aisle NMA seems a go.
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DL747400
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:39 pm

BREECH wrote:
WHAT larger market? There is NO market for NMA. At all. Nobody wants A310 or 753 sized airplanes. What airlines want is to squeeze more people into existing platforms and at lower cost. Until technology takes another step to make a plane the size of A330-800 lighter, cheaper and more economical than A320, it will not happen. And that's not going to materialize in the next 20-30 years.


Well, how about we agree to disagree? Let's just wait until Boeing launches the 797 in 2019, then we can see how many launch customers line up and how many firm orders are placed, OK?
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planecane
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:45 pm

BREECH wrote:
IMHO, Airbus will not open their cards on A322 until Boeing firms up 797. Otherwise they may undercut themselves. If Boeing goes stupid and launches a "MoM", they'll make an A322 and kill it with price. If Boeing starts a clean sheet 737 replacement, they'll invest in a clean sheet A320 family and kill that.


Sounds like a good time to short Boeing stock with your life savings!

No matter what Boeing does Airbus will kill it. Why would an Airbus clean sheet narrowbody be any better than a Boeing clean sheet narrowbody developed within a couple of years of each other with same generation engine technology? If they both did clean sheets I'd imagine sales would be roughly 50/50.

If Boeing launches the MOM, it will be with large launch orders so no matter what Airbus does with A322 pricing it won't "kill" the MOM. It can certainly hurt Boeing's margins.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:51 pm

parapente wrote:
It's not that a reduced range 322 is not the natural next step to the 101tonne XLR- it probably is.Particularly as a shorter range plays into the strength of the existing wing and not against it.But.As been said previously - and many times ,Airbus are in 'production hell' at the moment with the 320 family.And so are their engine partners.
There is absolutly no point in launching an aircaft their customers can't have.Indeed ( as stated above) it would just make things considerably worse as customers would start delaying and deferring their existing orders creating an even bigger muddle.Even Airbus just talking about the XLR could create problems for the ( band aid) LR ( which one would you prefer?).
I imagine their hand is being forced by Boeing's 797 work, but it's hard to tell.
IMHO if one could magically remove all their production issues then Airbus would happily launch and develop both the XLR and the small stretched 322 tomorrow, using the same beefed up platform.
One delivering 200-206 pax in two classes 4,500nm plus ( as stated by Airbus). The other delivering 250 pax ( one class) circa 3000nm.Whats not to like .( Hell they might even apply the same stretch to the 320 and make it a 200 seater).How cost efficient might such a programme be?
But all of it is simply hot air as they simply do not have the production to meet their present orders and selling what you already have is far more profitable!Airbus isn't an A.net fan forum it's a hard core business.But I have no doubt that all the necessary internal computer simulation work has all been completed a long while ago.

Note.Boeing right now has committed to absolutly nothing.Remember they banged on incessantly about the Sonic Cruiser with revised shapes etc etc.Then suddenly in a huge volte face it turned out to be a highly efficient 767/772er replacement programme.With Airbus being caught absolutly flat footed shouting 'Chinese copy'.

Who is to say they won't 'can' the MOM tomorrow ( no one can see the market other than them it seems) and launch a complete replacement programme for the venerable 737.Far from impossible imho.Then suddenly these new Airbus concepts will look like band-aid solutions overnight.


Narrow body deliveries at Airbus seem to pick up quite nicely. The stash of older gliders seem to melt before the winter sun, 18 left between MSN7000 and MSN8400, some not delayed by engines, but rather customers. :bigthumbsup: 67 deliveries in October and again over 60, we will see the correct number in a few days, in November. And the frames keep flowing out, all neo, but one, with GTF engines so far this month. So I assume that at least the narrow body deliveries will reach the intended number this year and beat Boeing again in narrow body deliveries, even without counting the A220.

So I assume that you can let Airbus worry about the production.

I assume that Airbus has quite a few projects ready in the drawer to pull them out, when Boeing declares itself in regards to the 797. The plus and plus plus shelved, but not forgotten, or worked on quietly. I would not put it past Airbus to work on a lighter A330, aka new A300.

I would assume that the A321XLR is a project that will get build without the 797 or with the 797 launched.

If customers move to the A321XLR, from any other A320 family frame, Airbus will gladly accept the additional money from their customers. If the move delays the frames, others stand ready to take the early delivery slots.

The newest FAL with its computer controlled positioning vehicles, is already build for added flexibility, reaching 10 frames a month sometime next year.
 
airbazar
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:18 pm

DL747400 wrote:
While the NMA is shaping up to a larger market, somewhat different range, payload, operating characteristics, etc., the battle seems very similar.

Larger market? It's exactly because the market isn't big enough that Boeing has been dragging its feet.
This is more similar to the 767-400. There's maybe 2 or 3 airlines that really, really want it but not in big enough numbers.

kitplane01 wrote:
I'm saying your right, but not because the planes cost less. It's because they burn less fuel.

The plane also costs less. According to Airbus' list price, 1 A339 costs more than 2 A321neo while 2xA321 can carry more passengers than 1 A339.
A321neo 129.5
A330-900 296.4
Everything is cheaper with the A321neo, both acquisition costs and operating costs.
One caveat, that is not the list price for the LR but you get the idea.
 
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keesje
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:25 pm

Airbus hijacked AA away from Boeing in 2011 by offering them something very good while Boeing was doing various NSA studies for years, to "fully understand what the market really needs". Assuming & telling everyone the big airlines would wait for them. When Boeing discovered reality, 2 minutes to twelve, they were out of options & had to launch the MAX and have played second fiddle since then.


Airbus will no doubt visit United with a similar strategy, offering them 200 A321LRX/A322s. With very good conditions, flexibility and early slots, build in America, GE & Pratt fighting to provide the engines.

Image

AA & DL committed to A321 fleets already & would not be too hard to convince to convert some to bigger A322s, sitting on aging 757/767 fleets. Who's gonna be the big NSA launching customer, at what price? China Southern (Trump), JAL (who makes the wings?) ?

Sometimes doing nothing, sitting it out saves money, lets you learn what's happening & react efficiently, as a smart follower. Sometimes it's like the fire brigade doing nothing, sitting it out.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Revelation
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 1:28 pm

DL747400 wrote:
For some time now, I've sensed something vaguely familiar about the NMA business case and the battle lines being drawn between B and A. Then it hit me........ This feels like a modern day equivalent of the battle between the Lockheed 1011 TriStar and the McDonnell Douglas DC-10, which commenced in the late 1960's.

While the NMA is shaping up to a larger market, somewhat different range, payload, operating characteristics, etc., the battle seems very similar.

Hopefully, this new battle will bring more airline customers to the table and will bring greater financial success for the manufacturers!

Personally, I feel it's more like MD-11 vs 777: NEO and aero tweaks going up against clean sheet.

One frame leveraging its past success and huge installed base, another with inherent performance advantages and much more growth potential balanced against the need to pay back a huge investment.
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parapente
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:09 pm

I bow to your greater knowledge on the subject of 320 production Mjoelnir.Last time I read I thought they were struggling to make their targets but that must be out of date.If they can 'bang 'em out' like this then it does offer them the flexibility to be more aggressive. In ( say) Paris next year.
I also agree that the XLR is a 'slam dunk' no reason not to,hardly an expensive development and offers all operators the range they need with a 200 seat 2 class aircaft ( or another combination-there must be many).
Any stretch is a bigger financial undertaking.But if they have the manufacturing capacity it might be something that they could choose to do without waiting too long (Paris).MOL has already publicly stated that the MOM he has seen is not economical enough for him to order so an A322 is not in any danger of being undercut by economics ( or anything else).Why not just do it?
 
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DL747400
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:22 pm

keesje wrote:
Who's gonna be the big NSA launching customer, at what price?


While it is not known at this time who will end up being the largest launch customer, DL / Ed Bastian has already stated publicly on multiple occasions that DL wants to be a launch customer for the 797.
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

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airbazar
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:41 pm

DL747400 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Who's gonna be the big NSA launching customer, at what price?


While it is not known at this time who will end up being the largest launch customer, DL / Ed Bastian has already stated publicly on multiple occasions that DL wants to be a launch customer for the 797.


He said "big". Does DL want 300 frames to make up for the fact no one else seems to be interested in large enough numbers? Probably not.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
For some time now, I've sensed something vaguely familiar about the NMA business case and the battle lines being drawn between B and A. Then it hit me........ This feels like a modern day equivalent of the battle between the Lockheed 1011 TriStar and the McDonnell Douglas DC-10, which commenced in the late 1960's.

While the NMA is shaping up to a larger market, somewhat different range, payload, operating characteristics, etc., the battle seems very similar.

Hopefully, this new battle will bring more airline customers to the table and will bring greater financial success for the manufacturers!

Personally, I feel it's more like MD-11 vs 777: NEO and aero tweaks going up against clean sheet.

One frame leveraging its past success and huge installed base, another with inherent performance advantages and much more growth potential balanced against the need to pay back a huge investment.


Perhaps the comparison to A330 versus 777 would do better. The A330 smaller and more economical and the 777 more capable. But any comparison would always be somehow off.
 
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coronado
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:44 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Lockheed has Skunk Works, Boeing has Phantom Works, what trendy name does Airbus have? Alas these divisions were mostly for secret military projects. The A322 would never fit there since They have leaked plenty of information through Leeham News.

Given all the skulduggery and subterfuge surrounding these developments, one can be excused for likening it to a top-level strategic weapon. And since you asked for the name of the French player... would "Oeuvres Panthere" sound right? :listen: .....

Image
https://pics.me.me/the-pink-panther-the ... 293956.png


:cool2: I think Inspector Clouseau would approve. :biggrin:


Airbus Raccoon Works, obviously for anyone looking at their windshield treatments.
The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
 
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william
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:44 pm

DL747400 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Who's gonna be the big NSA launching customer, at what price?


While it is not known at this time who will end up being the largest launch customer, DL / Ed Bastian has already stated publicly on multiple occasions that DL wants to be a launch customer for the 797.


No way! Really?................Not the, "AA & DL committed to A321 fleets already & would not be too hard to convince to convert some to bigger A322s, customer.
 
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william
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:54 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I suspect many of the criticisms of the 737-900 would come back. I also suspect flying at 28,000 ft won’t be viewed as a positive. Unless they go to triple slotted flaps (remember that Airbus added double slotted flaps to the A321 to give it reasonable runway performance ), runway performance may be an issue. I think slam dunk is a bit generous although early days A321 family sales were nothing to be ashamed of.

I don't think that is a valid example. The 737-900 had a range of 2200nm the 737-900ER came up to 2900nm.

As history shows the stretch model always starts selling better as MTOW increases and engine improvements come in.

An A322 in 1995 would have been lucky to fly 2000nm as the A321 could only over 3200nm at the low 93T MTOW. This would be worse than the original 737-900.

The A321NEO pumped that range up to 3500nm at 93T. The A321LR went further to 4000nm at 97T. At this point an A322 at 97T a simple stretch would be able to exceed 3000nm. Some say 3000nm wikipedia range is the bare minimum required to sell in huge numbers.

A 101T A321XLR will push 4500nm. We are at the point where a simple stretch A322 would be in the sweet spot. It doesn't need a bigger wing, in fact with every engine PIP it will be able to carry less fuel to fly the same mission.

The A322 at 101T with the current wing would sell very well. Sure maybe not as good as a brand new carbon winged model but good enough.

In terms of the 797. When competing on short haul the best CASM would usually win. The A322 would do well here as it would be very light per passenger. You don't need fancy wings and engines for short haul as shown by the A330NEO having no advantage over the CEO on short trips. The A321XLR will target the 797 on medium haul thin routes. Airlines always prefer frequency over capacity going with the smallest aircraft that can fly the route with a normal payload. This is an advantage the A321XLR will have over the 797. The might have a slight CASM advantage but so did the A380. The CASM advantage has to be big enough to justify the size increase.


Curious, when Boeing states they want to make sure there is a business case for the 797, do you not think they haven't done their own due diligence on how efficient a rewinged and reengined A321 would be? I think their super computers comes pretty close to what a formidable competitor such an air frame would be (and Airbus is doing the same on the 797). So if the 797 launches in the face of this "slam dunk", then maybe, just maybe the 797 is efficient enough to compete with the "slam dunk" A322.

Interesting that Airbus may not be as confident as some posters here as we have also read that Airbus will has a new WB product ready to launch if need be to compete with the 797.

The strong A321 backlog has given the Airbus the luxury of time as been posted by others. Airbus also has the benefit of the newer platform that has at least one more "generation" in it .
 
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keesje
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:21 pm

william wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Who's gonna be the big NSA launching customer, at what price?


While it is not known at this time who will end up being the largest launch customer, DL / Ed Bastian has already stated publicly on multiple occasions that DL wants to be a launch customer for the 797.


No way! Really?................Not the, "AA & DL committed to A321 fleets already & would not be too hard to convince to convert some to bigger A322s, customer.


Ed also cancelled their 787 order and gets A330s/A350s & what was that thing with the CSeries? Delta for the NMA, high hopes.. but money talks, 100+100 A321NEO's a year ago, on top of the current 120 A321 CEO orders being delivered.That 320 A321 "commiments". https://news.delta.com/delta-selects-airbus-a321neo-narrowbody-fleet-renewal
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:26 pm

BREECH wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
except boeing has the cash flow to easily develop new products, airbus doesnt have that same financial freedom.

How did you deduce that? Especially the second part. Airbus actually sells more planes at higher prices. Boeing has to dump their MAXs to keep the line busy. 787 sells at or even below cost with $32B spent on it. I don't see all those problems with Airbus. Do you know something I don't?


Breech, you are wrong.

Airbus’s production difficulties caused it to burn though an astonishing 3.8 billion euros ($4.6 billion) 1 of cash in the first quarter. Boeing had about $2.7 billion of free cash flow during the same period, according to Bloomberg data. A five-year comparison makes even grimmer reading from an Airbus perspective. By my calculation, Boeing has generated $39 billion of cash since January 1 2013, about 13 times more than Airbus.

Hence Boeing has returned $44 billion of cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases in the past five years, about nine times what Airbus has managed.


Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ts-on-cash

Some speculate Leahy chased market share for years at the expense oflowered margins and cash flow, which make it more difficult for Airbus to launch a new plane than Boeing. Boeing has a huge amount of cash that can go to R and D for a new airplane as well as investors. Airbus does not, which could explain why they are focused on cheaper upgrades like the A321XLR until they can get production stabilized and improve cash flow. Early signs is that cash flow is improving
 
RalXWB
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:35 pm

Comparing the A321 to something like the MD11 is an insult beyond any words... :old:
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:39 pm

coronado wrote:
Airbus Raccoon Works, obviously for anyone looking at their windshield treatments.

While it's cute, Airbus may find the name too American for their taste.....the critter having been merely introduced to Europe. :wink2:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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seahawk
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:04 pm

Again this discussion?

We know that the current landing gear is reaching ground pressure limits at 101t, we also know that the newest exit door configuration is limited to 250 seats and the A321 already does 240 in sardine can configuration. In addition addition for any extra FA you need about 10-12 seats to just compensate the costs. So once you go over 250, you need at least 270 seats to make the effort worthwhile. I would not call a 2 row stretch ground braking in any form. And something like 6 rows to take the plane to 276 seats will be starting to become MTOW limited quickly as the additional passengers alone will eat up the MTOW bump. In addition the longer fuselage allows means worse take-off performance as the maximum rotation angle will be reduced.

Imho the only thing reasonable solution would be doing the A320.5 and A321.5 with the A320.5 then going to 200 seats and the A321.5 to 250 seats.
 
parapente
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 4:49 pm

Seahawk.i believe your A231.5 is what people here are discussing.IE a max 250 seater one class (but perhaps 29-30" pitch) .The move to 101 tonnes (created for the XLR) will allow for that stretch with a reduction of range to circa 3knm. And yes that has got to be circa the top end of pavement loading for a single bogey MLG.Whether the same small stretch can be applied to the A320 ( your A320.5) am not technically competent to comment but would deliver more bang for buck I suppose.
This concept is not a classic 'MOM' but would shrink the available space for it to operate in as it could not compete against such an aircaft over these shorter distances.
Yup it has been discussed ad infinitum!
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:04 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
BREECH wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
except boeing has the cash flow to easily develop new products, airbus doesnt have that same financial freedom.

How did you deduce that? Especially the second part. Airbus actually sells more planes at higher prices. Boeing has to dump their MAXs to keep the line busy. 787 sells at or even below cost with $32B spent on it. I don't see all those problems with Airbus. Do you know something I don't?


Breech, you are wrong.

Airbus’s production difficulties caused it to burn though an astonishing 3.8 billion euros ($4.6 billion) 1 of cash in the first quarter. Boeing had about $2.7 billion of free cash flow during the same period, according to Bloomberg data. A five-year comparison makes even grimmer reading from an Airbus perspective. By my calculation, Boeing has generated $39 billion of cash since January 1 2013, about 13 times more than Airbus.

Hence Boeing has returned $44 billion of cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases in the past five years, about nine times what Airbus has managed.


Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ts-on-cash


Some speculate Leahy chased market share for years at the expense oflowered margins and cash flow, which make it more difficult for Airbus to launch a new plane than Boeing. Boeing has a huge amount of cash that can go to R and D for a new airplane as well as investors. Airbus does not, which could explain why they are focused on cheaper upgrades like the A321XLR until they can get production stabilized and improve cash flow. Early signs is that cash flow is improving


Yes and Boeing has a negative equity of 26 billion USD if you calculate the influence of program for cost accounting. So 26 billion of those 44 billions have been provided by program for cost accounting. If Boeing would have had to account to IFRS only 18 billion of those 44 billions would have been possible, to pull out of the company.

Regarding cash flow, Boeing started the year with 8,887 million USD cash reserves and ended Q3 with 8,034 million USD cash reserves. Down 887 million.

Do you want to start seriously on a comparison of the financial situation of Boeing versus Airbus?
Last edited by mjoelnir on Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:04 pm

[quote="Newbiepilot"][/quote]

Seems you are4 acrtively trying to distract the discussion again into a topic you now is far more complecated. You keep repeating your self again and again without adding anything new just to distract. Is that called Trolling?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:


Seems you are4 acrtively trying to distract the discussion again into a topic you now is far more complecated. You keep repeating your self again and again without adding anything new just to distract. Is that called Trolling?


Well, you are an expert on distracting topics and repeating yourself. Just because you dont like the facts, doesnt make it trolling

The free cash flow position of Airbus vs Boeing likely does impact what type of project Airbus can launch. Right now they are focused on a low cost MTOW bump and fuel tank redesign. If they can get production stabilized and improve cashflow, they may be in a better position to launch the A322.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:40 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
BREECH wrote:
How did you deduce that? Especially the second part. Airbus actually sells more planes at higher prices. Boeing has to dump their MAXs to keep the line busy. 787 sells at or even below cost with $32B spent on it. I don't see all those problems with Airbus. Do you know something I don't?


Breech, you are wrong.

Airbus’s production difficulties caused it to burn though an astonishing 3.8 billion euros ($4.6 billion) 1 of cash in the first quarter. Boeing had about $2.7 billion of free cash flow during the same period, according to Bloomberg data. A five-year comparison makes even grimmer reading from an Airbus perspective. By my calculation, Boeing has generated $39 billion of cash since January 1 2013, about 13 times more than Airbus.

Hence Boeing has returned $44 billion of cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases in the past five years, about nine times what Airbus has managed.


Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ts-on-cash


Some speculate Leahy chased market share for years at the expense oflowered margins and cash flow, which make it more difficult for Airbus to launch a new plane than Boeing. Boeing has a huge amount of cash that can go to R and D for a new airplane as well as investors. Airbus does not, which could explain why they are focused on cheaper upgrades like the A321XLR until they can get production stabilized and improve cash flow. Early signs is that cash flow is improving


Yes and Boeing has a negative equity of 26 billion USD if you calculate the influence of program for cost accounting. So 26 billion of those 44 billions have been provided by program for cost accounting. If Boeing would have had to account to IFRS only 18 billion of those 44 billions would have been possible, to pull out of the company.

Regarding cash flow, Boeing started the year with 8,887 million USD cash reserves and ended Q3 with 8,034 million USD cash reserves. Down 887 million.

Do you want to start seriously on a comparison of the financial situation of Boeing versus Airbus?


The question for this thread is, does Airbus have the free cash flow and resources to launch a full A322 with a new wing?
 
WIederling
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:46 pm

coronado wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Lockheed has Skunk Works, Boeing has Phantom Works, what trendy name does Airbus have? Alas these divisions were mostly for secret military projects. The A322 would never fit there since They have leaked plenty of information through Leeham News.

Given all the skulduggery and subterfuge surrounding these developments, one can be excused for likening it to a top-level strategic weapon. And since you asked for the name of the French player... would "Oeuvres Panthere" sound right? :listen: .....

Image
https://pics.me.me/the-pink-panther-the ... 293956.png


:cool2: I think Inspector Clouseau would approve. :biggrin:


Airbus Raccoon Works, obviously for anyone looking at their windshield treatments.


I'd have taken the original Pink Panther:
Image
never a hard word or action but always ahead. :-)
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parapente
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:52 pm

In truth a small stretch of the A321neo is not a 'ball breaker' in terms of cost.They had worked it out technically circa 20 years ago but never went forward with it ( suspect range too low back then).But in general terms no I don't imagine they are in a strong position for a major investment programme -they've only just finished the enormously expensive A350 Programme.With the infamous A380 project before that.

But are Boeing?Of course the 787 programme that has only recently finished with the '10',the ( possibly unexpected)fairly major development of the dash 10 737.And of course the whole 777x programme.Am not sure if they have published costs but it must a fair few dimes!
Perhaps they should both just call a truce for a few years!
( note they both appear to be taking over two fairly weak projects (financially) as well in Canada and Brazil.)
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:10 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

Breech, you are wrong.

Airbus’s production difficulties caused it to burn though an astonishing 3.8 billion euros ($4.6 billion) 1 of cash in the first quarter. Boeing had about $2.7 billion of free cash flow during the same period, according to Bloomberg data. A five-year comparison makes even grimmer reading from an Airbus perspective. By my calculation, Boeing has generated $39 billion of cash since January 1 2013, about 13 times more than Airbus.

Hence Boeing has returned $44 billion of cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases in the past five years, about nine times what Airbus has managed.


Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ts-on-cash


Some speculate Leahy chased market share for years at the expense oflowered margins and cash flow, which make it more difficult for Airbus to launch a new plane than Boeing. Boeing has a huge amount of cash that can go to R and D for a new airplane as well as investors. Airbus does not, which could explain why they are focused on cheaper upgrades like the A321XLR until they can get production stabilized and improve cash flow. Early signs is that cash flow is improving


Yes and Boeing has a negative equity of 26 billion USD if you calculate the influence of program for cost accounting. So 26 billion of those 44 billions have been provided by program for cost accounting. If Boeing would have had to account to IFRS only 18 billion of those 44 billions would have been possible, to pull out of the company.

Regarding cash flow, Boeing started the year with 8,887 million USD cash reserves and ended Q3 with 8,034 million USD cash reserves. Down 887 million.

Do you want to start seriously on a comparison of the financial situation of Boeing versus Airbus?


The question for this thread is, does Airbus have the free cash flow and resources to launch a full A322 with a new wing?


Perhaps you do not get it. The difference in equity between Boeing and Airbus is huge, if both would account to IFRS. With Boeing somewhere around minus 26 billion USD and Airbus about 18 billion plus. The difference is about 44 billion USD. Airbus has kept that money, or what ever you want to call it, inside the company and Boeing has moved it out to the shareholders. To say it simple Boeing has striped the company of value to pay shareholders.
Blomberg is always talking about cash flow or free cash flow, because they are in no way interested how healthy a company is, or if a company has reserves. The only thing they are interested in, how much money is possible to extract from a company in a certain time frame. That why they like a restriction on CAPEX for example. Investment can be good for the future of a company, but investments restricts the amount of money a company can pay out right now.
Airbus with less pressure try to keep more money inside the company.

We all know why Airbus is down in cash flow and down in cash reserves. They have an inventory of undelivered frames at the end of Q3. The same applied last year in the end of Q3, but than Airbus broke all records in delivery in Q4 and came out with higher cash reserves than Boeing in the end of the year. The delivery wave is rolling as it is, with over 60 A320 family aircraft, 10 A350 , 2 A380 delivered in November. You will see significant amounts of cash reserves by the end of the year at Airbus. I assume again higher than Boeing.
 
ELBOB
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:23 pm

Back in 1988 / 89 when it was still the A320-300 the stretch was to be 7.85 metres. I don't know when exactly it was re-shrunk but they lost a seat-row by the time it was launched, which could have been useful for toilet space in the XLR.
 
smartplane
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:42 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:

Breech, you are wrong.

Airbus’s production difficulties caused it to burn though an astonishing 3.8 billion euros ($4.6 billion) 1 of cash in the first quarter. Boeing had about $2.7 billion of free cash flow during the same period, according to Bloomberg data. A five-year comparison makes even grimmer reading from an Airbus perspective. By my calculation, Boeing has generated $39 billion of cash since January 1 2013, about 13 times more than Airbus.

Hence Boeing has returned $44 billion of cash to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases in the past five years, about nine times what Airbus has managed.


Image

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ts-on-cash


Some speculate Leahy chased market share for years at the expense oflowered margins and cash flow, which make it more difficult for Airbus to launch a new plane than Boeing. Boeing has a huge amount of cash that can go to R and D for a new airplane as well as investors. Airbus does not, which could explain why they are focused on cheaper upgrades like the A321XLR until they can get production stabilized and improve cash flow. Early signs is that cash flow is improving


Yes and Boeing has a negative equity of 26 billion USD if you calculate the influence of program for cost accounting. So 26 billion of those 44 billions have been provided by program for cost accounting. If Boeing would have had to account to IFRS only 18 billion of those 44 billions would have been possible, to pull out of the company.

Regarding cash flow, Boeing started the year with 8,887 million USD cash reserves and ended Q3 with 8,034 million USD cash reserves. Down 887 million.

Do you want to start seriously on a comparison of the financial situation of Boeing versus Airbus?


The question for this thread is, does Airbus have the free cash flow and resources to launch a full A322 with a new wing?

And other than assessing the viability and various what if scenarios, at this stage, do they have the inclination and / or need to commit?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:52 pm

smartplane wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Yes and Boeing has a negative equity of 26 billion USD if you calculate the influence of program for cost accounting. So 26 billion of those 44 billions have been provided by program for cost accounting. If Boeing would have had to account to IFRS only 18 billion of those 44 billions would have been possible, to pull out of the company.

Regarding cash flow, Boeing started the year with 8,887 million USD cash reserves and ended Q3 with 8,034 million USD cash reserves. Down 887 million.

Do you want to start seriously on a comparison of the financial situation of Boeing versus Airbus?


The question for this thread is, does Airbus have the free cash flow and resources to launch a full A322 with a new wing?

And other than assessing the viability and various what if scenarios, at this stage, do they have the inclination and / or need to commit?


Well they shelved the plus plus, which looks a lot like the A322 earlier this year. At this stage it is hard to know if unshelving is likely to happen soon or not. They refocused on the A321 MTOW bump and fuel tank redesign
 
smartplane
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:53 pm

parapente wrote:
In truth a small stretch of the A321neo is not a 'ball breaker' in terms of cost.They had worked it out technically circa 20 years ago but never went forward with it ( suspect range too low back then).But in general terms no I don't imagine they are in a strong position for a major investment programme -they've only just finished the enormously expensive A350 Programme.With the infamous A380 project before that.

But are Boeing?Of course the 787 programme that has only recently finished with the '10',the ( possibly unexpected)fairly major development of the dash 10 737.And of course the whole 777x programme.Am not sure if they have published costs but it must a fair few dimes!
Perhaps they should both just call a truce for a few years!
( note they both appear to be taking over two fairly weak projects (financially) as well in Canada and Brazil.)

No truce. Airbus grabbed the A220 after Boeing started negotiations but was slow to commit. Boeing targetted remaining A338 customers. Airbus signed EK on for more A380's when the expectation was the reverse, making EK 777X's commitment safer (or even larger). So Boeing friend GE declined to negotiate meaningfully to offer engines for the A380. And.................

A truce would be a good idea for both companies financially, but for customers and A.Net activists, definitely not.

One day, someone will make a movie. It is after all, just business.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Is Airbus hiding a new A322 business case behind the 100t+ A321XLR study? Numbers..

Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:56 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Revelation wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
For some time now, I've sensed something vaguely familiar about the NMA business case and the battle lines being drawn between B and A. Then it hit me........ This feels like a modern day equivalent of the battle between the Lockheed 1011 TriStar and the McDonnell Douglas DC-10, which commenced in the late 1960's.

While the NMA is shaping up to a larger market, somewhat different range, payload, operating characteristics, etc., the battle seems very similar.

Hopefully, this new battle will bring more airline customers to the table and will bring greater financial success for the manufacturers!

Personally, I feel it's more like MD-11 vs 777: NEO and aero tweaks going up against clean sheet.

One frame leveraging its past success and huge installed base, another with inherent performance advantages and much more growth potential balanced against the need to pay back a huge investment.


Perhaps the comparison to A330 versus 777 would do better. The A330 smaller and more economical and the 777 more capable. But any comparison would always be somehow off.


I guess there are many ways compare this. For me, it would be the A380 vs. the 777. The target market was the 747 replacement. Airbus went out with a clean sheet design while Boeing tweaked the 777 just about enough to satisfy most of the 747 replacement market. Only consider the 747 = 757/762, A380 = 797, and the 777 = A321.

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