Reuters: Lion Air ponders cancellation of 737 MAX orders

MrHMSH · Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:22 pm

Indonesia’s Lion Air is reviewing airplane purchases from Boeing Co and has not ruled out canceling orders as relations worsen in a spat over responsibility for a 737 jetliner crash that killed 189 people in late October.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indon ... ce=twitter

nine4nine · Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:26 pm

While Boeing May have an issue with the new software in question and the disclosure of such to the buying Airlines, the aircraft in question should have been grounded due to the multiple and consecutive repetition of the issue that caused it to crash. If there’s any fault here it lies almost solely with the operator.

MileHFL400 · Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:31 pm

Let them cancel, I’m sure there will be slot takers

indcwby · Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:34 pm

LionAir's PR/Management thinks this will help their image. Indeed, someone else will gladly take up those slots.

bond787 · Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:34 pm

Maybe this is an excuse to get out of the contract due to too many planes being ordered.

WayexTDI · Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:40 pm

nine4nine wrote:
If there’s any fault here it lies almost solely with the operator.

The majority of the fault lies with the operator; but Boeing is not completely exempt of liability as it appears to not have completely disclosed a critical new piece of software (as disclosed by multiple groups of pilots).

Chemist · Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:26 pm

This is a good move, as Lion Air doesn't seem to be competent to fly the MAX.

Aesma · Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:35 pm

If the airline launches a campaign against Boeing, they can't be buying Boeing aircraft at the same time, in fact they should get rid of all the Max they have.

MSPNWA · Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:55 pm

This smells like it's trying to publicly convey "it was the airplane's fault", or it's simply an excuse for over-ordering.

Finn350 · Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:56 pm

nine4nine wrote:
While Boeing May have an issue with the new software in question and the disclosure of such to the buying Airlines, the aircraft in question should have been grounded due to the multiple and consecutive repetition of the issue that caused it to crash. If there’s any fault here it lies almost solely with the operator.

Lion Air accident has exposed a design flaw in the 737MAX series aircraft, but I am sure that Boeing is able to fix the flaw with a software (and possibly hardware update). Lion Air most likely has no contractual basis to cancel the order based on the flaw, unless 737MAX Airworthiness Certificate is revoked, which is not going to happen based on the information we have now.

racerclc · Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:57 pm

Is it possible that Lionair is saying this message simply to encourage/force Boeing to fix the problem more quickly rather than seriously considering the cancellation? I don't believe the common person will be able to tell the difference between a 737 MAX and another manufacturer's aircraft.

smartplane · Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:32 pm

nine4nine wrote:
While Boeing May have an issue with the new software in question and the disclosure of such to the buying Airlines, the aircraft in question should have been grounded due to the multiple and consecutive repetition of the issue that caused it to crash. If there’s any fault here it lies almost solely with the operator.

You assume there was zero awareness by Boeing of the problems being experienced by this aircraft, either as a result of Lion personnel making contact / seeking assistance, or repeated electronic alerts.

N212R · Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:41 pm

Meanwhile there's a hot potato of a CVR somewhere....the "official" blame game has begun.

ikramerica · Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:46 pm

Chemist wrote:
This is a good move, as Lion Air doesn't seem to be competent to fly the MAX.

Yep. Convert it to NG which are some still being built.

Again, this is why many hear believe that Lion doesn’t want the CVR found. Lion wants to scape goat without all the facts in. The less information regarding the actions of the pilots and the mechanic in on board, the better for Lion in terms of PR.

The question becomes, do the Indonesian authorities want it found.

IWMBH · Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:58 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Chemist wrote:
This is a good move, as Lion Air doesn't seem to be competent to fly the MAX.

Yep. Convert it to NG which are some still being built.

Again, this is why many hear believe that Lion doesn’t want the CVR found. Lion wants to scape goat without all the facts in. The less information regarding the actions of the pilots and the mechanic in on board, the better for Lion in terms of PR.

The question becomes, do the Indonesian authorities want it found.

Someones forgot his aluminum hat today, you have no prove for this claim. Besides, the NTSB and FAA are probably heavily involved in the investigation and would never allow this.

OT: Losing a 240 plane order is never fun, but it's nothing Boeing can't handle and there will be enough airlines to take the slots. Im curious what Lion air is going to do if this is true. Getting this many A320neo on such a short notice seem impossible.

o0OOO0oChris · Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:09 pm

So we are talking of a total order of 201 aircraft ordered and 13 delivered. While 188 aircraft is a lot and shurly hurt the boeing sales team, it represent`s just 4,5% of the total backlog, so not that big of a deal and may open up sales opportunities due to early available slots.

The 610 crash issue is a mess and will get ugly, so I can see the order being cancelled. On the other hand, I think talking about canceling this early is not a smart move. While the order is "just" 4,5% of boeing`s backlog, it is still a lot of money that boeing wants to get. Boeing might take a different, more lionair-friendly stance in the issue to keep the order. If it`s gone in a blow to Boeing, why wouldn`t they play the coming blamegame as dirty as it could get?

If Lionair still want`s to expand, they have to turn to Airbus. And they will be a pretty bad position to get huge discounts after they have shown B the middle finger. How wll they argue? If you don`t give me 55% for this huge order, i will buy boeings? Or comair? Good luck with that.
Strategically, this is a dumb move on so many levels.

rivervisual · Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:35 pm

Not a bad thing if they cancel. At least those aircraft will likely go to a carrier that knows how to maintain them.

And Wall Street apparently doesn't care either... Boeing stock is up $13 today - markets are up overall but still.

TTailedTiger · Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:38 pm

o0OOO0oChris wrote:
So we are talking of a total order of 201 aircraft ordered and 13 delivered. While 188 aircraft is a lot and shurly hurt the boeing sales team, it represent`s just 4,5% of the total backlog, so not that big of a deal and may open up sales opportunities due to early available slots.

The 610 crash issue is a mess and will get ugly, so I can see the order being cancelled. On the other hand, I think talking about canceling this early is not a smart move. While the order is "just" 4,5% of boeing`s backlog, it is still a lot of money that boeing wants to get. Boeing might take a different, more lionair-friendly stance in the issue to keep the order. If it`s gone in a blow to Boeing, why wouldn`t they play the coming blamegame as dirty as it could get?

If Lionair still want`s to expand, they have to turn to Airbus. And they will be a pretty bad position to get huge discounts after they have shown B the middle finger. How wll they argue? If you don`t give me 55% for this huge order, i will buy boeings? Or comair? Good luck with that.
Strategically, this is a dumb move on so many levels.

I doubt Airbus wants to deal with Lion Air either as they would crash the A320neo in short order as well.

rbavfan · Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:59 pm

Finn350 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
While Boeing May have an issue with the new software in question and the disclosure of such to the buying Airlines, the aircraft in question should have been grounded due to the multiple and consecutive repetition of the issue that caused it to crash. If there’s any fault here it lies almost solely with the operator.

Lion Air accident has exposed a design flaw in the 737MAX series aircraft, but I am sure that Boeing is able to fix the flaw with a software (and possibly hardware update). Lion Air most likely has no contractual basis to cancel the order based on the flaw, unless 737MAX Airworthiness Certificate is revoked, which is not going to happen based on the information we have now.

I doubt they will fix it with hardware as it involves the further fwd and upward angled engines causing the nose to rise. They chose software fix in software. But chose not to cover its use & over rides very well. Hope to be able to keep my "if it's not Boeing, I'm not going" hat, but so far they seem to be slipping the last few years. To many bean counters running things.

Lilienthal · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:02 pm

How is that even supposed to work for Lion Air? They're pretty much an all Boeing airline with flight, cabin, ground and maintenance crews plus all the equipment trained, designed and optimized for 737 operations. The investments needed to shift all that to the A32Xneo, the only real alternative, must be gigantic. Let alone the fact that Airbus could pretty much quote them any price that they want...

The alternative would be to keep using the existing fleet and grow via second-hand frames, maybe? Sounds unlikely, and they would have to crawl back to Boeing eventually like "You know what, the Max is quite an all right plane after all"

I what scenario would, or even could Lion Air actually follow through with that thread?

ikramerica · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:10 pm

They could buy more NG at a discount?

JoeCanuck · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:17 pm

It is possible for more than one thing to be true simultaneously.

It can be true that Boeing's actions and lack of action of contributed to the accident of what is probably a basically sound aircraft design.

It can also be true that Lion Air may be using the accident as a pretext to rid themselves of some of the burden of having ordered too many aircraft.

lightsaber · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:22 pm

This thread has gone incredibly a vs b. Read the forum rules. Faster than I can warn and delete, new violations occur.

We are volunteers. This is my lunch. So please act like adults.

RobK · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:29 pm

Lilienthal wrote:
How is that even supposed to work for Lion Air? They're pretty much an all Boeing airline with flight, cabin, ground and maintenance crews plus all the equipment trained, designed and optimized for 737 operations. The investments needed to shift all that to the A32Xneo, the only real alternative, must be gigantic. Let alone the fact that Airbus could pretty much quote them any price that they want...

Lion Air Group have 41 A320s in their inventory and they're renowed for chopping and changing their orders at the last hour so it's not beyond the realm of possibilities for them to change to 'bus.

nikeherc · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:30 pm

First point: the Max models are not on the original 737 certification. The Max models are on supplemental type certificates. Changes to an aircraft design will result in changes to the flight and handling characteristics of the aircraft. This is why new models are tested and require STCs.

Second point: first reports indicated that runaway horizontal stabilizer trim was a known condition and pilots are trained to handle this. This accident may have been a variation on that theme.

Third point: any fly by wire aircraft is subject to control failure and unique envelope protection issues. To blame this solely on the trim control system and the Max design is seeking the easy way out.

Fourth point: Lion maintenance does not appear to have shined in this instance. I would love to know what the CVR would reveal.

Fifth point: Let’s see what the investigation reveals.

asdf · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:40 pm

o0OOO0oChris wrote:
If Lionair still want`s to expand, they have to turn to Airbus. And they will be a pretty bad position to get huge discounts after they have shown B the middle finger. How wll they argue? If you don`t give me 55% for this huge order, i will buy boeings? Or comair? Good luck with that.
Strategically, this is a dumb move on so many levels.

well, do we know if they maybe already have a pre agreement with AB?
and we see now the result of it?

nobody knows

Momo1435 · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:45 pm

Is there anything known about the performance of Lion Air last month? Did this crash have a big impact on the passenger numbers? This could of course also have an impact on the relations, with either or both companies going into survival mode.

AvObserver · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:52 pm

nikeherc wrote:
First point: the Max models are not on the original 737 certification. The Max models are on supplemental type certificates. Changes to an aircraft design will result in changes to the flight and handling characteristics of the aircraft. This is why new models are tested and require STCs.

Second point: first reports indicated that runaway horizontal stabilizer trim was a known condition and pilots are trained to handle this. This accident may have been a variation on that theme.

Third point: any fly by wire aircraft is subject to control failure and unique envelope protection issues. To blame this solely on the trim control system and the Max design is seeking the easy way out.

Fourth point: Lion maintenance does not appear to have shined in this instance. I would love to know what the CVR would reveal.

Fifth point: Let’s see what the investigation reveals.

Finally, a true voice of reason! Not that I want to see B off the hook for lack of full disclosure on MCAS but so many of these posts are over the top with venom toward either Lion Air or Boeing. Please folks, lets wait for ALL of the facts to be in before we pass judgement. Jeez!

StTim · Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:59 pm

Exactly - accidents are complex events caused by a mix of failures/issues.

Usually no one comes out blameless and like wise no one party normally takes all the blames.

It is far too early yet to apportion blame.

peanuts · Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:39 pm

Couple things:
-Such a foolish thing to spout as Lion Air co-founder. Control your emotions/theatrics because this won't get you anywhere with Boeing, or Airbus for that matter.
-Based on Lion Air's history, they are likely to damage A320's at the same rate.
-So far Lion Air has not given me any reason to set foot on their airplanes. It's an operator problem, not a builder problem. Ask WN.
-This plane should have never been flown that day. Lion Air culture on display.

StTim · Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:48 pm

peanuts wrote:
Couple things:
-Such a foolish thing to spout as Lion Air co-founder. Control your emotions/theatrics because this won't get you anywhere with Boeing, or Airbus for that matter.
-Based on Lion Air's history, they are likely to damage A320's at the same rate.
-So far Lion Air has not given me any reason to set foot on their airplanes. It's an operator problem, not a builder problem. Ask WN.
-This plane should have never been flown that day. Lion Air culture on display.

There is every indication that the is a potential builder problem. I suspect on this one there will be lots of blame - enough to spread around.

SEPilot · Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:50 pm

With the rate that Lion has been pranging Boeing airplanes I would, were I CEO of Boeing, be glad to lose them as a customer. It’s bad for their image.

Bhoy · Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:10 pm

SEPilot wrote:
With the rate that Lion has been pranging Boeing airplanes I would, were I CEO of Boeing, be glad to lose them as a customer. It’s bad for their image.

See, that's why I don't get why Boeing would have agreed to have Lion as the launch customer of the Max, with all the publicity that goes with that.

wingman · Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:30 pm

StTim wrote:
Exactly - accidents are complex events caused by a mix of failures/issues.

Usually no one comes out blameless and like wise no one party normally takes all the blames.

It is far too early yet to apportion blame.

I agree fully. Where Boeing is to blame in this event they will pay the price, the US legal system and the FAA will see to it. The same may be true of Lion Air, but unless they get sued in the US their potential liability in an "equal blame" outcome will probably be significantly less than Boeing's, on the order of many billions of dollars. Right now Boeing is operating by a strict playbook that they probably practice once a month and that is governed by legal, shareholder and customer interests. They are certainly not engaging any kind of propaganda machine to hide the truth and blame Lion Air, that is patently absurd and would cause even more damage in the long run if it were. Until the CVR is found and the investigation is complete all we can do is offer up opinions, some of them informed and some not. In the end my guess is this is going to be an equal blame outcome, and from a liability standpoint Boeing will have some cold comfort pointing at the prior flight. That crew saw something not behaving right and they shut it down. The crash crew saw the same thing and argued with it the whole way down. I remain stunned that despite a likely component issue and lack of communication about its existence or function, on two back to back flights on the same aircraft 189 people made it to their destination 189 people died.

scbriml · Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:36 pm

nikeherc wrote:
Second point: first reports indicated that runaway horizontal stabilizer trim was a known condition and pilots are trained to handle this. This accident may have been a variation on that theme.

If you'd read the whole Lion crash thread you'd know that runaway trim was never encountered. But don't let that stop you.

SEPilot · Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:44 pm

wingman wrote:
StTim wrote:
Exactly - accidents are complex events caused by a mix of failures/issues.

Usually no one comes out blameless and like wise no one party normally takes all the blames.

It is far too early yet to apportion blame.

I agree fully. Where Boeing is to blame in this event they will pay the price, the US legal system and the FAA will see to it. The same may be true of Lion Air, but unless they get sued in the US their potential liability in an "equal blame" outcome will probably be significantly less than Boeing's, on the order of many billions of dollars. Right now Boeing is operating by a strict playbook that they probably practice once a month and that is governed by legal, shareholder and customer interests. They are certainly not engaging any kind of propaganda machine to hide the truth and blame Lion Air, that is patently absurd and would cause even more damage in the long run if it were. Until the CVR is found and the investigation is complete all we can do is offer up opinions, some of them informed and some not. In the end my guess is this is going to be an equal blame outcome, and from a liability standpoint Boeing will have some cold comfort pointing at the prior flight. That crew saw something not behaving right and they shut it down. The crash crew saw the same thing and argued with it the whole way down. I remain stunned that despite a likely component issue and lack of communication about its existence or function, on two back to back flights on the same aircraft 189 people made it to their destination 189 people died.

This is what gets me. Had I piloted the last successful flight I would have written a note and left it in the pilot’s seat saying something to the effect of this is what happened to us; here is how we coped with it. We wrote it up and hopefully it will be fixed but if not here’s what we did and it worked. Especially since Lion maintenance is by all accounts not the best.

Erebus · Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:45 pm

SEPilot wrote:
With the rate that Lion has been pranging Boeing airplanes I would, were I CEO of Boeing, be glad to lose them as a customer. It’s bad for their image.

Does Boeing really want to go down this path, instead of finding a better way to resolve it? Lion currently has the largest market share in Indonesia. This is a country of 250+ million people geographically dispersed over many islands and air travel in this part of the world is set to boom if it hasn't already. It represents an opportunity neither Boeing nor Airbus should afford to pass up, IMO.

Sooner787 · Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:52 pm

AS many jets as Lion Air has wadded up the past 10-12 years, I'm astonished they can
even get insurance to operate... Can only imagine what their insurance bill is

TheFlyingDisk · Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:21 am

Honestly, I don't think anyone should put much stock into this. In my opinion this is nothing more than a PR stunt done to assuage local fears. Show that you're angry at the manufacturer, rattle some info about cancelling orders, and then all will be forgotten & Boeing and JT would kiss and make up.

Bhoy wrote:
See, that's why I don't get why Boeing would have agreed to have Lion as the launch customer of the Max, with all the publicity that goes with that.

They paid. It's that simple.

mjoelnir · Tue Dec 04, 2018 12:28 am

Pilots at USA airlines claim that Boeing has not informed about and not trained for some changes from NG to MAX. So pilot training for the MAX should not be a Lion Air problem only.
This failure has to be handled like a run away trim, but it behaves neither like a run away trim nor is a run away trim. To say that it was not a contributing factor to the accident is simply a white wash.
The failure experienced by the pilots, can be solely a maintenance issue, but it could also be that the mechanics had followed prescribed protocol. There seems to be a problem with the error reporting of pilots on earlier flights, giving the mechanics not enough information, but that again could have it's base in not knowing about the new systems.

Boeing should fix their part of the issue in a hurry. Perhaps all that is needed is a more extensive difference training from NG to MAX. But I assume, that that would include simulators were pilots could exspirieren this failure mode. That, I assume, could be done through a software update to the current NG simulators.

Nobody should be astonished that Lion Air is considering canceling the rest of the order.

In regards to Airbus orders, the Lion Air group has 178 A320neo family frames on order, 113 A320neo and 65 A321neo. Those orders are of course not based on this accident, but have been made in 2013.

SEPilot · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:11 am

Sooner787 wrote:
AS many jets as Lion Air has wadded up the past 10-12 years, I'm astonished they can
even get insurance to operate... Can only imagine what their insurance bill is

I have asked the exact same question. When you consider how rare airliner accidents have become, the number that Lion has had is staggering.

juliuswong · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:15 am

Erebus wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
With the rate that Lion has been pranging Boeing airplanes I would, were I CEO of Boeing, be glad to lose them as a customer. It’s bad for their image.

Does Boeing really want to go down this path, instead of finding a better way to resolve it? Lion currently has the largest market share in Indonesia. This is a country of 250+ million people geographically dispersed over many islands and air travel in this part of the world is set to boom if it hasn't already. It represents an opportunity neither Boeing nor Airbus should afford to pass up, IMO.

The last time Boeing snubbed AirAsia and many other LCC start-ups, guess what happened.

EA CO AS · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:20 am

bond787 wrote:
Maybe this is an excuse to get out of the contract due to too many planes being ordered.

Or, reducing capacity as they experience a drop in bookings due to safety concerns?

smartplane · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:32 am

SEPilot wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
AS many jets as Lion Air has wadded up the past 10-12 years, I'm astonished they can
even get insurance to operate... Can only imagine what their insurance bill is

I have asked the exact same question. When you consider how rare airliner accidents have become, the number that Lion has had is staggering.

Aviation safety is on a continuum. USA, Western Europe and Australia are at one one extreme. Average flight duration, terrain, weather, humidity, infrastructure, airports, approaches, technology, average age of crew, route variety, employment law, etc are factors.

You could probably also draw parallels for shipping and road accidents, compared with the USA and Indonesia.

Cointrin330 · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:36 am

Am not trying to defend Boeing or start an A v. B war, but I would lean on the idea that Lion Air and Indonesia's sketchy safety standards as the root cause of this crash, and not necessarily a defect on the 737-Max 8. Lion Air has had numerous accidents, is a case study in torrid growth of an airline in a still developing country with a pre-existing poor safety record when it comes to aviation. If Lion Air cancels the outstanding order, someone will swoop in very quickly and gladly take the planes off their hands. The country has a wretched safety record when it comes to aviation. Not suggesting it was pilot error. I don't know enough to opine, but pilot training, or lack thereof should also be at the center of this investigation if it is not already.

D L X · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:43 am

Just a reminder: US Airways flew the largest airbus fleet in the world bevause they got into a spat with Boeing over who was to blame for US427. They went from zero Airbus jets to over 400 in the stroke of a pen.

History repeats itself.

vfw614 · Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:56 am

If Boeing hid information from Lion Air (and other airlines) I do not see why Lion Air should not get out of the contract if they decided to do so. But probably it is only a tactical move to either be allowed to reduce the order or get more favorable terms.

Flaps · Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:02 am

D L X wrote:
Just a reminder: US Airways flew the largest airbus fleet in the world bevause they got into a spat with Boeing over who was to blame for US427. They went from zero Airbus jets to over 400 in the stroke of a pen.

History repeats itself.

Not exactly an apples to apples comparison. US was also in severe financial difficulty, got extremely favorable terms from Airbus and had just acquired a new CEO that happened to have a prior relationship with Airbus.

TTailedTiger · Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:06 am

I'm sure some airlines are already in love with the idea of getting some Max aircraft sooner if Lion Air cancels.

TTailedTiger · Tue Dec 04, 2018 2:10 am

D L X wrote:
Just a reminder: US Airways flew the largest airbus fleet in the world bevause they got into a spat with Boeing over who was to blame for US427. They went from zero Airbus jets to over 400 in the stroke of a pen.

History repeats itself.

That tends to only last as long as that management team is in place. Certainly not true presently at AA/US. Doug Parker is as happy as a pig in slop with the 738Max and the amount of seats he can cram into it.

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