planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:06 am

Gasman wrote:
I reckon the Air New Zealand division of the Commerce Commission will say it's ok.

Jokes aside, I do think the NZCC would look upon an HX withdrawal negatively for the next CX-NZ JV renewal. This is because, IMHO, the existing benefits of the JV have not outweighed the cost of the JV being able to force out the only (non-stop) competition in the market. I'm hopeful that the risk of NZCC denial would push CX and NZ to up their game, and start a third daily year-round service, or something else strategic.

Separately, two points:

1) I don't think HX will exit - they said they're happy with AKL as recently as last month, and could make AKL seasonal before leaving the market completely. They're still daily this summer, showing that there is at least some market for them to tap.

2) Non-HX alternatives for competition are extremely limited - I'd say only EK in a DXB - HKG - AKL routing would be a possibility (maybe in the 20-25% range). VA with a 332 would be in the 1-5% range, IMHO. LA as an extension from SCL, too.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:16 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
On loads I was surprised how full SQ285 was today, was onboard and it was probably 90% full down the back, no idea up front, one day doesn’t tell a story I’m well aware but given they have just gone 3 daily NZ/SQ I didn’t expect it to be so full in early November.

I'm not surprised - SQ is a fabulous carrier - arguably the best in the market. They can hold their own.

What I'm interested in is the extent to which travellers to/from Europe are over the new 17/18-hour non-stops through the Middle East, and whether this has benefitted SQ and SIN as a more bearable alternative? The NZ JV obviously also helps, too, as does booming demand from India (with still no non-stop competition).

It'll also be interesting to see 1) whether AKL gets the SQ 359's down the line (I can't imagine there's a need for the 77W's First Class in the AKL market, but maybe there is), and 2) whether the second NZ flight in the winter can be boosted from 5x weekly (IIRC) up to 7x weekly. Hopefully we continue to see growth!

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:21 am

BIG NEWS, PEOPLE - CX is bringing the A350-1000 to AKL, from 1 December (replacing the planned 77W service)!

CX has many 77W configurations, but if I'm right, this move will represent a slight capacity downgrade to AKL's market?

See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-in-nw19/.

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:23 am

HX is just a seasonal reduction, I see nothing unusual or concerning there - Fairly typical for all the Asian carriers (and indeed UA and AA too) barring SQ, CX and perhaps TG. In fact, it probably makes their remaining flights profitable year-round. New Zealand is a seasonal market for overseas travellers visiting, and that is their target audience.

edited to add
The A350-1000 is a product upgrade over the 10 abreast 77W that it was going to be,
Last edited by aerorobnz on Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:24 am

HX is just a seasonal reduction, I see nothing unusual or concerning there - Fairly typical for all the Asian carriers (and indeed UA and AA too) barring SQ, CX and perhaps TG. In fact, it probably makes their remaining flights profitable year-round. New Zealand is a seasonal market for overseas travellers visiting, and that is their target audience.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:36 am

NZ has slightly amended its network map for codeshare operations in its Kia Ora magazine, from this month. Thankfully, reference to the non-existent 'Pulau' in the South China Sea has been removed (shocked it took them so long to do so).

Some interesting observations:

- The SQ alliance doesn't seem to cover CDG - anyone know why, and what alternatives there could be? A deal with AF? DUB and MAD are the other two big gaps I see, but obviously SQ doesn't fly to those.

- The CA alliance doesn't extend to some major cities, like CAN, KMG and XMN (even through the PEK hub). Could there be potential for another partnership with HO, ex-PVG, to cover some of these big cities?

See: https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 7241209856.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:44 am

Wow - another highly strategic (and good) move (IMO) - BR will codeshare with NZ on AKL - TPE from December, with some further codesharing too (NZ on BR flights ex-TPE to ICN and 8 cities in Japan, and BR on NZ flights ex-BNE to AKL and CHC, and ex-AKL domestically). BR is a really good carrier, and with new terminal developments at TPE, this will be a great alternative for the New Zealand - ICN market in particular. It'll be very interesting to see if a JV develops in a way that allows BR metal to return to the New Zealand market (e.g. a daily AKL - TPE service over NW, with NZ 4x weekly, and BR 3x weekly).

See: http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201811020021.aspx.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:51 am

One step closer to the CHT runway upgrade, and 3C likely getting jets.

Still a looong way to go, but this is a positive step in the right direction!

The long awaited upgrade of New Zealand’s most remote regional airport moved one step closer last week when the Board of Chatham Island Airport Ltd signed an agreement with the Provincial Development Unit for $98,000 of funding from the Provincial Growth Fund.

See: http://3rdlevelnz.blogspot.com/2018/11/ ... nsion.html.

Cheers,

C.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:16 pm

planemanofnz wrote:

- The SQ alliance doesn't seem to cover CDG - anyone know why, and what alternatives there could be? A deal with AF? DUB and MAD are the other two big gaps I see, but obviously SQ doesn't fly to those.



Possibly tactical on the part of NZ so they can route them through HKG which CX serves daily. CX also serves MAD, DUB
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:55 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
BIG NEWS, PEOPLE - CX is bringing the A350-1000 to AKL, from 1 December (replacing the planned 77W service)!

CX has many 77W configurations, but if I'm right, this move will represent a slight capacity downgrade to AKL's market?

See: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... e-in-nw19/.

Cheers,

C.


That’s 2019/20 FYI. Interesting though, initially i thought they were going to fly the longest routes to North America then they decided to not put F in the 351, they reduced the order in favour of more 359’s.

Just 2 regular 77W configurations a 3 class and a 4 class but with the refits there’s more like 4 configurations atm.
 
torin
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:37 pm

a7ala wrote:
Gasman wrote:
My daughter flew AKL-DXB last night on EK and said in Y the aircraft was virtually empty. What have loadings been like on this route overall?


I've heard AKL-DPS has been pretty dire as well - hence the reducing of frequency next year. I dont think there are many ports that EK serves less than daily. Maybe only 9 out of the 130 ports they serve?



Except it returns to daily after the runway works...
 
torin
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:44 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ has slightly amended its network map for codeshare operations in its Kia Ora magazine, from this month. Thankfully, reference to the non-existent 'Pulau' in the South China Sea has been removed (shocked it took them so long to do so).

Some interesting observations:

- The SQ alliance doesn't seem to cover CDG - anyone know why, and what alternatives there could be? A deal with AF? DUB and MAD are the other two big gaps I see, but obviously SQ doesn't fly to those.

- The CA alliance doesn't extend to some major cities, like CAN, KMG and XMN (even through the PEK hub). Could there be potential for another partnership with HO, ex-PVG, to cover some of these big cities?

See: https://twitter.com/Airlineroute/status ... 7241209856.

Cheers,

C.


It is covered under the JV, its just that its the only destination that doesnt have an NZ codeshare on the flight - but very much in the JV fares

The NZ fares to China work as follows:

    Destinations Via HKG Via SHA Via BJS
    Chonqing (CKG) HKG-(CA/KA)-CKG SHA-(NZ/CA/HO)-CKG BJS-(CA)-CKG
    Changsha (CSX) HKG-(KA)-CSX SHA-(FM/MU/CZ/HO)-CSX BJS-(NZ/CA)-CSX
    Chengdu (CTU) HKG-(CA/KA)-CTU SHA-(NZ/CA/HO)-CTU BJS-(CA)-CTU
    Changchun (CGQ) SHA-(NZ/CZ/HO)-CGQ BJS-(NZ/CA)-CGQ
    Dandong (DDG) SHA-(CZ)-DDG BJS-(CA)-DDG
    Daqing (DQA) SHA-(CZ)-DQA BJS-(CA)-DQA
    Dalian (DLC) HKG-(CA)-DLC SHA-(NZ/CA/FM/MU/CZ/HO)-DLC BJS-(NZ/CA)-DLC
    Fuzhou (FOC) HKG-(KA)-FOC SHA-(MU/HO)-FOC
    Guangzhou (CAN) HKG-(KA)-CAN
    Guilin (KWL) HKG-(KA)-KWL SHA-(FM/MU/CZ/HO)-KWL BJS-(CA)-KWL
    Guiyang (KWE) SHA-(CA/CZ/HO)-KWE BJS-(CA)-KWE
    Haikou (HAK) HKG-(KA)-HAK SHA-(CZ/HO)-HAK BJS-(CA)-HAK
    Harbin (HRB) SHA-(NZ/CA/HO)-HRB BJS-(NZ/CA)-HRB
    Hangzhou (HGH) HKG-(KA/MU)-HGH
    Hefei (HFE) SHA-(MU)-HFE BJS-(CA)-HFE
    Hohhot (HET) BJS-(CA)-HET
    Jinan (TNA) HKG-(KA)-TNA SHA-(MU)-TNA
    Jiamusi (JMU) SHA-(CZ)-JMU BJS-(CA)-JMU
    Kunming (KMG) HKG-(KA/MU)-KMG SHA-(CA/HO)-KMG BJS-(CA)-KMG
    Lanzhou (LHW) SHA-(NZ/CA/HO)-LHW BJS-(NZ/CA)-LHW
    Mudanjiang (MDG) SHA-(CZ)-MDG BJS-(CA)-MDG
    Nanchang (KHN) SHA-(MU)-KHN BJS-(CA)-KHN
    Nanning (NNG) HKG-(KA)-NNG SHA-(CZ/HO)-NNG BJS-(CA)-NNG
    Nanyang (NNY) SHA-(CZ)-NNY
    Ningbo (NGB) HKG-(KA)-NGB
    Nanjing (NKG) HKG-(KA)-NKG BJS-(CA)-NKG
    Qingdao (TAO) HKG-(KA)-TAO SHA-(MU/CZ/HO)-TAO BJS-(NZ/CA)-TAO
    Qiqihar (NDG) SHA-(CZ)-NDG BJS-(CA)-NDG
    Sanya (SYX) HKG-(KA)-SYX
    Shantou (SWA) SHA-(CZ)-SWA BJS-(CA)-SWA
    Shenyang (SHE) SHA-(FM/MU/CZ/HO)-SHE BJS-(NZ/CA)-SHE
    Shenzhen (SZX) BJS-(CA)-SZX
    Taiyuan (TYN) HKG-(MU)-TYN SHA-(MU/HO)-TYN BJS-(NZ/CA)-TYN
    Tianjin (TSN) HKG-(CA)-TSN SHA-(CA/FM/MU/HO)-TSN
    Urumqi (URC) BJS-(CA)-URC
    Weihai (WEH) BJS-(CA)-WEH
    Wenzhou (WNZ) HKG-(KA)-WNZ SHA-(NZ/CA/FM/MU)-WNZ BJS-(CA)-WNZ
    Wuhan (WUH) HKG-(KA)-WUH SHA-(MU/CZ/HO)-WUH BJS-(NZ/CA)-WUH
    Wuxi (WUX) HKG-(MU)-WUX
    Xiamen (XMN) HKG-(KA)-XMN
    Xi'an (XIY) HKG-(KA/MU)-XIY SHA-(NZ/CA/MU/CZ/HO)-XIY BJS-(NZ/CA)-XIY
    Xining (XNN) BJS-(CA)-XNN
    Yanji (YNJ) SHA-(CZ)-YNJ BJS-(CA)-YNJ
    Yantai (YNT) SHA-(MU)-YNT BJS-(NZ/CA)-YNT
    Yinchuan (INC) SHA-(MU/HO)-INC
    Zhengzhou (CGO) HKG-(KA)-CGO SHA-(NZ/CA/FM/MU/CZ/HO)-CGO BJS-(NZ/CA)-CGO
Last edited by torin on Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:46 pm

torin wrote:
a7ala wrote:
Gasman wrote:
My daughter flew AKL-DXB last night on EK and said in Y the aircraft was virtually empty. What have loadings been like on this route overall?


I've heard AKL-DPS has been pretty dire as well - hence the reducing of frequency next year. I dont think there are many ports that EK serves less than daily. Maybe only 9 out of the 130 ports they serve?



Except it returns to daily after the runway works...


Peak demand June-September for DPS when it is daily. I don’t think they will change the route before October next year atleast.
 
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hic787
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:49 am

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... 1yXG3_SthA

Fly My Sky's new Whangarei Service not off to a great start.... ''a couple of flights had had no passengers but bookings were picking up".
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:09 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
No idea I’m not an expert, at times it has been mentioned that NZ looked in the past at a single type for long haul with 300 seats, probably the 772 before deciding to keep the 744’s back in 2004/05, they could have probably kept more 763’s at the time and replaced the 744 then, then ordered the 77W earlier if more capacity was needed. Anyway that’s the past as for now like I say in no expert so don’t really no either. I agree heavy maintenance would likely be done offshore.

I’d place the 778 inbetween the 772/77W size wise, with a similar NZ configuration it might seat 320-340 depending on exact configuration. I’d imagine an A359 seating 290-310 again depends on the exact configuration.


My involvement and awareness is around MX, Tech/Cabin Crew crewing and training as the obvious but also Ground/Cargo handling, Day of Ops management etc

My thoughts are, 2 types are expected for NZ's long-haul Ops, I guess what I'm really wondering is, is having both Airbus and Boeing any more difficult/costly than two different Boeing versions?

I tend to agree with you on the 778/A359 size and the A359 sits very close to the 772 product so begs the question, if NZ goes 778 what will happen with the 77W? the 779 is too big for NZ and lacks range in my opinion. Therefore is the 77W replaced by more 778 and leaving NZ will a single 777 type?

I'd imagine an NZ A359 would have a config similar to VN; https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Vietn ... mation.php But this will depend on ensuring you still get the desired range so we could see two versions as we do with the 789.

Leaving out things like growth etc here are the option... (I'm sure there are many more options and keen to see them, this is just a starter)
Scenario A
14x 789
8x 778
5x 779

Scenarios B
14x 789
8x A359
5x A35K

Scenario C - adjusted appraoch
17x 789
10x 778

Scenario D
14x 789
8x 778
5x A35K

I can't see scenario A play out as the 779 is too big, but this is still very feasible! Scenario D will never happen, Scenario C has merits but unlikely which is why I'm really feeling the A350 family and this a very warm feeling around the office. It's more a matter of numbers

For me, scenario B then A.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:20 am

aerorobnz wrote:
HX is just a seasonal reduction, I see nothing unusual or concerning there - Fairly typical for all the Asian carriers (and indeed UA and AA too) barring SQ, CX and perhaps TG. In fact, it probably makes their remaining flights profitable year-round. New Zealand is a seasonal market for overseas travellers visiting, and that is their target audience.

edited to add
The A350-1000 is a product upgrade over the 10 abreast 77W that it was going to be,


There have been a few adjustments - all reductions and my thoughts instantly went to if they withdraw how will the market view this for NZ's alliance with CX and will that impact on SQ/CA as well?

But you're right.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:29 am

NZ6 wrote:
... my thoughts instantly went to if they withdraw how will the market view this for NZ's alliance with CX ...

IMO, it's not how the market will view this that we should be thinking about - it's how the regulator would view it. On that, I think the regulator would view an HX withdrawal negatively, as I stated above. Various stakeholder agencies, like MOT, are already very skeptical.

NZ6 wrote:
... and will that impact on SQ/CA as well?

Intrigued you mentioned SQ and CA, and not UA. IMO, the UA and CX ones are the ones NZ has to worry about - the former, if AA pulls out, and the latter, if HX pulls out. And of those, the CX one is the one most at risk, IMO, having delivered the least amount of benefits.

The SQ JV has delivered the third daily AKL frequency, a seasonal 388 to AKL, and there has been regional benefits too, through WLG and CHC. Big growth, and the NZCC will see that. Meanwhile, the CA one is in a market with large amounts of competition. No issues?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:33 am

NZ6 wrote:
For me, scenario B then A.

:checkmark: +1, totally agree, and think/hope scenario B is what will happen.

Cheers,

C.
 
nz2
Posts: 216
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:33 am

Hi all, does anyone know what version of the A380 SQ flies to AKL? I am off the Singapore this Sunday and NZ is sold out in PE so I am trying SQ on SQ 286 at 3.15pm. Hopefully it is version 3 with PE in the nose, just curious thats all

Thanks
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:36 am

torin wrote:
It is covered under the JV, its just that its the only destination that doesnt have an NZ codeshare on the flight - but very much in the JV fares

I wonder why they a) don't codeshare on CA to major destinations, like KMG, and b) don't even offer interline fares on CA to major destinations, like XMN. I appreciate going through PVG or PEK for these involves backtracking, to an extent, but still - that doesn't stop NZ codesharing on SQ to MNL, for example.

Cheers,

C.
 
Megatop747-412
Posts: 266
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:26 am

nz2 wrote:
Hi all, does anyone know what version of the A380 SQ flies to AKL? I am off the Singapore this Sunday and NZ is sold out in PE so I am trying SQ on SQ 286 at 3.15pm. Hopefully it is version 3 with PE in the nose, just curious thats all

Thanks


Unfortunately SQ286 is not likely to get the Version 3 A380, the newest config A380s, of which SQ has only 5 at the moment (9V-SKU to SKZ with the exception of SKX). SQ285/286 is likely to get version 1, which has economy on the rear end of the upper deck.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:09 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
No idea I’m not an expert, at times it has been mentioned that NZ looked in the past at a single type for long haul with 300 seats, probably the 772 before deciding to keep the 744’s back in 2004/05, they could have probably kept more 763’s at the time and replaced the 744 then, then ordered the 77W earlier if more capacity was needed. Anyway that’s the past as for now like I say in no expert so don’t really no either. I agree heavy maintenance would likely be done offshore.

I’d place the 778 inbetween the 772/77W size wise, with a similar NZ configuration it might seat 320-340 depending on exact configuration. I’d imagine an A359 seating 290-310 again depends on the exact configuration.


My involvement and awareness is around MX, Tech/Cabin Crew crewing and training as the obvious but also Ground/Cargo handling, Day of Ops management etc

My thoughts are, 2 types are expected for NZ's long-haul Ops, I guess what I'm really wondering is, is having both Airbus and Boeing any more difficult/costly than two different Boeing versions?

I tend to agree with you on the 778/A359 size and the A359 sits very close to the 772 product so begs the question, if NZ goes 778 what will happen with the 77W? the 779 is too big for NZ and lacks range in my opinion. Therefore is the 77W replaced by more 778 and leaving NZ will a single 777 type?

I'd imagine an NZ A359 would have a config similar to VN; https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Vietn ... mation.php But this will depend on ensuring you still get the desired range so we could see two versions as we do with the 789.

Leaving out things like growth etc here are the option... (I'm sure there are many more options and keen to see them, this is just a starter)
Scenario A
14x 789
8x 778
5x 779

Scenarios B
14x 789
8x A359
5x A35K

Scenario C - adjusted appraoch
17x 789
10x 778

Scenario D
14x 789
8x 778
5x A35K

I can't see scenario A play out as the 779 is too big, but this is still very feasible! Scenario D will never happen, Scenario C has merits but unlikely which is why I'm really feeling the A350 family and this a very warm feeling around the office. It's more a matter of numbers

For me, scenario B then A.

Scenario B for me but with an extra 2x (maybe 3x) A35K making 15x (or 16x) A350 in total.
A35K likely to do LHR/LAX/SFO/HKG.
A359 to do YVR/IAH/ORD/EWR/GRU.
789 to do everything else including covering for mx on all but ORD/EWR/GRU/LHR.

I still think unless the world economy turns bad, NZ will pull the trigger earlier and start receiving these in 2021.
59 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4189
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:13 am

Zkpilot wrote:
A35K likely to do LHR

This is an interesting topic - whether/how much longer NZ will stay at LHR. What do people think?

Zkpilot wrote:
I still think unless the world economy turns bad, NZ will pull the trigger earlier and start receiving these in 2021.

I think the world economy will turn bad - we're overdue for a correction, based on historical precedent.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6307
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:31 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
... my thoughts instantly went to if they withdraw how will the market view this for NZ's alliance with CX ...

IMO, it's not how the market will view this that we should be thinking about - it's how the regulator would view it. On that, I think the regulator would view an HX withdrawal negatively, as I stated above. Various stakeholder agencies, like MOT, are already very skeptical.

NZ6 wrote:
... and will that impact on SQ/CA as well?

Intrigued you mentioned SQ and CA, and not UA. IMO, the UA and CX ones are the ones NZ has to worry about - the former, if AA pulls out, and the latter, if HX pulls out. And of those, the CX one is the one most at risk, IMO, having delivered the least amount of benefits.

The SQ JV has delivered the third daily AKL frequency, a seasonal 388 to AKL, and there has been regional benefits too, through WLG and CHC. Big growth, and the NZCC will see that. Meanwhile, the CA one is in a market with large amounts of competition. No issues?

Cheers,

C.


Re CX they might turn around and say they won’t do CHC without the JV, NZ are very unlikely to do it. What will the regulators say about that should they reject a renewal of the JV?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6307
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:43 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
No idea I’m not an expert, at times it has been mentioned that NZ looked in the past at a single type for long haul with 300 seats, probably the 772 before deciding to keep the 744’s back in 2004/05, they could have probably kept more 763’s at the time and replaced the 744 then, then ordered the 77W earlier if more capacity was needed. Anyway that’s the past as for now like I say in no expert so don’t really no either. I agree heavy maintenance would likely be done offshore.

I’d place the 778 inbetween the 772/77W size wise, with a similar NZ configuration it might seat 320-340 depending on exact configuration. I’d imagine an A359 seating 290-310 again depends on the exact configuration.


My involvement and awareness is around MX, Tech/Cabin Crew crewing and training as the obvious but also Ground/Cargo handling, Day of Ops management etc

My thoughts are, 2 types are expected for NZ's long-haul Ops, I guess what I'm really wondering is, is having both Airbus and Boeing any more difficult/costly than two different Boeing versions?

I tend to agree with you on the 778/A359 size and the A359 sits very close to the 772 product so begs the question, if NZ goes 778 what will happen with the 77W? the 779 is too big for NZ and lacks range in my opinion. Therefore is the 77W replaced by more 778 and leaving NZ will a single 777 type?

I'd imagine an NZ A359 would have a config similar to VN; https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Vietn ... mation.php But this will depend on ensuring you still get the desired range so we could see two versions as we do with the 789.

Leaving out things like growth etc here are the option... (I'm sure there are many more options and keen to see them, this is just a starter)
Scenario A
14x 789
8x 778
5x 779

Scenarios B
14x 789
8x A359
5x A35K

Scenario C - adjusted appraoch
17x 789
10x 778

Scenario D
14x 789
8x 778
5x A35K

I can't see scenario A play out as the 779 is too big, but this is still very feasible! Scenario D will never happen, Scenario C has merits but unlikely which is why I'm really feeling the A350 family and this a very warm feeling around the office. It's more a matter of numbers

For me, scenario B then A.


The 779 is between a 77W/744, with a new potentially larger J seat with maybe a slight increase in the number of seats say

48J
56W
250Y

It’s not much more capacity than a 77W plus or minus for those numbers and it’s more efficient by a good margin. The 35K with those numbers would be more likely around 325 which may well be enough for NZ as their highest capacity aircraft.

I’d say of your suggestions scenario A or B are most likely.

As to what’s most efficient for the airline in what they choose it will be really interesting to see.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:14 am

Megatop747-412 wrote:
nz2 wrote:
Hi all, does anyone know what version of the A380 SQ flies to AKL? I am off the Singapore this Sunday and NZ is sold out in PE so I am trying SQ on SQ 286 at 3.15pm. Hopefully it is version 3 with PE in the nose, just curious thats all

Thanks


Unfortunately SQ286 is not likely to get the Version 3 A380, the newest config A380s, of which SQ has only 5 at the moment (9V-SKU to SKZ with the exception of SKX). SQ285/286 is likely to get version 1, which has economy on the rear end of the upper deck.



Version 1 is all AKL has ever got bar 1-2 subs 1 year. There are 6 9V-SKF-SKK with version 1 which have done all AKL services so far this season. SQ don’t sub to often.

They will refit all of them to version 3 in 2019/20.
 
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zkojq
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:48 am

Just a reminder that safety videos can be fun, classy and pleasant to watch/listen to. It is possible :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhbXFHrDmTg&
:cloudnine:

GW54 wrote:
From an operational/engineering perspective why go to Airbus to complicate your long haul fleet. Why have a mix of 787,A350, 77E and 777W. Lets remember the 77E will still be in the fleet while a new type is being introduced. From a crewing perspective a 787, 77E, 77W and 778 makes far more sense. Already it is possible for a common type rating for the 787/777 fleets although at present apart from some management pilots Air NZ have not gone down the path. If you introduce the A350 that is yet another sub fleet. If it is decided to keep the 787 and 777 crews operating seperately you can still have a 777 crew operating the 77E,77W and 778. Economically a far more sensible approach.


You could say exactly the same about 737s 15 years ago and yet I see dozens and dozens of A320s in Air New Zealand's livery lined up at Auckland.

NZ6 wrote:
On paper, the yet to be built 778 (most likely Boeing frame) is larger and goes further than the A350 but does that make it more economic and can NZ fill it, it'll be 30-50 seats larger, obviously, that depends what the airline does with it.

:checkmark: This is the feeling I get too. It's interesting though. In theory Air New Zealand and Qantas RFPs should be the an easy win for the 777-X (since it is optimised for longer flights and NZ + QF operate the longest average sectors for long haul flights). Yet I have a feeling that, especially in Air New Zealand's case, it is simply too much plane for an airline that is significantly fragmenting its long haul traffic.

IMHO if the 777x can't get orders from NZ + QF the program is in very serious trouble. The A350 is better for 7-14 hour sectors and the 787-10 eats its lunch for sub 7 hour sectors. Not many carriers outside of the 777x's current order book have a need for any significant number of planes that can carry a full payload to 15+ hours.

NZ6 wrote:
Also, is there confidence in a yet to be built (airworthy) aircraft at the moment?


Or more to the point a completely unproven engine.

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
Sorry, but why can't Air NZ talk about a desire to fly deeper in the China

What? NZ briefly expressed an interest in CTU, but quashed that and has committed to PVG and growth in China through a 2nd daily flight there.


Honestly, that seems the smart way to approach things. A second frequency with a morning departure ex AKL to PVG would surely add the most value to the network IMO.
Most recent aircraft flown: A318 F-GUGQ, A319 F-GRHR, A320ceo D-AIZH, A320neo D-AINE, A330-300 VH-QPD, A350-900 B-LRA, A380-800 D-AIMH, 717 VH-YQW, 737-600 LN-RPA, 737-700 OY-JTY, 737-800 LN-NGA, 767-300 ZK-NCI, 777-300 ZK-OKN, 787-9 VH-ZNA, CS100 HB-JBG
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:52 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Re CX they might turn around and say they won’t do CHC without the JV, NZ are very unlikely to do it. What will the regulators say about that should they reject a renewal of the JV?

Honestly, I don't think the NZCC will care if CX drops CHC in retaliation for the JV being cancelled. At 3x weekly for a mere 3 months of the year, and after having taken 5+ years into the JV to eventuate, I think the NZCC will feel that competition in a much larger market (AKL - HKG, at 2x daily) is far more important to secure than the CX CHC service, at current levels. That being said, if CX were to match SQ at CHC (daily, and year-round), it might be a different story.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:59 am

zkojq wrote:
Honestly, that seems the smart way to approach things. A second frequency with a morning departure ex AKL to PVG would surely add the most value to the network IMO.

Yes, but if only it were that easy - the slot situation at PVG is a nightmare! :shock:

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:05 pm

Well I didn't have any trouble picking up the safety info from the latest vid. Have to say I have seen worse from NZ. And nor was I bored. Overall, compared to the latest QF video - clearly following along the same lines - I thought the NZ offering held up nicely. I think the above criticism is a little harsh to put it lightly.
Plane mad!
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:50 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
A35K likely to do LHR

This is an interesting topic - whether/how much longer NZ will stay at LHR. What do people think?

Zkpilot wrote:
I still think unless the world economy turns bad, NZ will pull the trigger earlier and start receiving these in 2021.

I think the world economy will turn bad - we're overdue for a correction, based on historical precedent.

Cheers,

C.

LHR is one of NZs most profitable routes. It also helps to get its name out there for Americans and Brits. I don’t think it’s going anywhere anytime soon.

As for the economy, yes well overdue. The difference is that interest rates are still historically low and many economies are only mid growth cycle after having such a slow recovery from the GFC. It could happen any day, but there’s also a lot of reasons why this current growth phase could go on for another 2-3 years.
59 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
nz2
Posts: 216
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:40 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Megatop747-412 wrote:
nz2 wrote:
Hi all, does anyone know what version of the A380 SQ flies to AKL? I am off the Singapore this Sunday and NZ is sold out in PE so I am trying SQ on SQ 286 at 3.15pm. Hopefully it is version 3 with PE in the nose, just curious thats all

Thanks


Unfortunately SQ286 is not likely to get the Version 3 A380, the newest config A380s, of which SQ has only 5 at the moment (9V-SKU to SKZ with the exception of SKX). SQ285/286 is likely to get version 1, which has economy on the rear end of the upper deck.



Version 1 is all AKL has ever got bar 1-2 subs 1 year. There are 6 9V-SKF-SKK with version 1 which have done all AKL services so far this season. SQ don’t sub to often.

They will refit all of them to version 3 in 2019/20.


Thanks guys, sounds like V1 is the likely candidate, cheers
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:35 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
LHR is one of NZs most profitable routes. It also helps to get its name out there for Americans and Brits. I don’t think it’s going anywhere anytime soon.


Agreed. But the continuation of the route raises plenty of questions and it's been a while since we've discussed it - so here goes.

- Luxon - and Fyfe before him - repeatedly said that one stop routes are a Bad Thing. So what makes LHR special? Too lucrative to ignore? If it was THAT lucrative, why no increase in frequency or capacity for the last 30 years? Or why not now have a fleet of VLA on the route to further enhance brand presence?

- How much of LHR really is due to mother England ties and "getting the name out there" for Americans and Brits? It's not like NZ - especially recently - to continue doing anything that's not directly quantifiable in terms of profit. So I'd argue it's mostly - if not wholly - about profit.

- Given LHR proves that one-stops can continue to be profitable, why is a non-stop into EWR (for which we're so DESPERATELY holding out for the compatible aircraft) so unequivocally viable, whereas a one-stop to EWR via LAX isn't?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:25 am

Gasman wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
LHR is one of NZs most profitable routes. It also helps to get its name out there for Americans and Brits. I don’t think it’s going anywhere anytime soon.


Agreed. But the continuation of the route raises plenty of questions and it's been a while since we've discussed it - so here goes.

- Luxon - and Fyfe before him - repeatedly said that one stop routes are a Bad Thing. So what makes LHR special? Too lucrative to ignore? If it was THAT lucrative, why no increase in frequency or capacity for the last 30 years? Or why not now have a fleet of VLA on the route to further enhance brand presence?

- How much of LHR really is due to mother England ties and "getting the name out there" for Americans and Brits? It's not like NZ - especially recently - to continue doing anything that's not directly quantifiable in terms of profit. So I'd argue it's mostly - if not wholly - about profit.

- Given LHR proves that one-stops can continue to be profitable, why is a non-stop into EWR (for which we're so DESPERATELY holding out for the compatible aircraft) so unequivocally viable, whereas a one-stop to EWR via LAX isn't?


This is such an easy answer and highlights just how relative a lot of the 'knowledge', 'complaints' and 'opinion' is of what NZ does is.

NZ wants LAX-LHR to stand as it's own route and forces as much of its AKL originating LHR traffic over the East, so while NZ does carry passengers NZ2 AKL-LAX-LHR it ideally has two loads, AKL-LAX and then LAX-LHR.

This is how LAXLHR and NZ2 as we know it survived Luxon's long-haul review when BJS, HKG-LHR got axed.
Last edited by NZ6 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Megatop747-412
Posts: 266
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:25 am

nz2 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Megatop747-412 wrote:

Unfortunately SQ286 is not likely to get the Version 3 A380, the newest config A380s, of which SQ has only 5 at the moment (9V-SKU to SKZ with the exception of SKX). SQ285/286 is likely to get version 1, which has economy on the rear end of the upper deck.



Version 1 is all AKL has ever got bar 1-2 subs 1 year. There are 6 9V-SKF-SKK with version 1 which have done all AKL services so far this season. SQ don’t sub to often.

They will refit all of them to version 3 in 2019/20.


Thanks guys, sounds like V1 is the likely candidate, cheers


All good - enjoy your flight regardless and have a trip trip!
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1119
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:06 am

Gasman wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
LHR is one of NZs most profitable routes. It also helps to get its name out there for Americans and Brits. I don’t think it’s going anywhere anytime soon.


- Given LHR proves that one-stops can continue to be profitable, why is a non-stop into EWR (for which we're so DESPERATELY holding out for the compatible aircraft) so unequivocally viable, whereas a one-stop to EWR via LAX isn't?


Easy answer: Traffic rights. The US won't allow foreign airlines 8th or 9th freedom rights, i.e. cabotage. Same reason why QF is not allowed to carry passengers between LAX and JFK - only those who are continuing to/from OZ.

However, a AKL-YVR-EWR would be possible. Or, dare I say, AKL-MEX-EWR? ;-)
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:28 am

zkeoj wrote:
a AKL-YVR-EWR would be possible. Or, dare I say, AKL-MEX-EWR? ;-)

... or even an AKL - NAN - EWR or AKL - PPT - EWR routing (subject to ASA's). :lol:

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:32 am

NZ6 wrote:
This is how LAXLHR and NZ2 as we know it survived Luxon's long-haul review when BJS, HKG-LHR got axed.

Yes, but we're asking whether it will continue to survive reviews into the future? :?

We're all well aware that it's LAX-LHR O&D that they're going after, and not the AKL connections, but things are changing (like NZ's premium class products comparatively lowering in quality, relative to competitors on the route, more and more competition coming online, the development of the AKL hub and LHR not really adding to economies of scale for that, and, of course, rising costs for certain elements, like maintaining the LHR crew base).

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:56 am

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
This is how LAXLHR and NZ2 as we know it survived Luxon's long-haul review when BJS, HKG-LHR got axed.

Yes, but we're asking whether it will continue to survive reviews into the future? :?

Cheers,

C.


I was responding to Gasman's direct question, not what you say at all and that's why I quoted him. Here again, just for you

Gasman wrote:

- Luxon - and Fyfe before him - repeatedly said that one stop routes are a Bad Thing. So what makes LHR special?


In case it's been missed, LAX-LHR is a one-stop flight. So it AKL-LAX and there is some premium market AKL-LHR on there to supplement it.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:36 am

NZ6 wrote:
LAX-LHR is a one-stop flight. So it AKL-LAX and there is some premium market AKL-LHR on there to supplement it.

I think most people are already well aware of that ... the key point is whether the LAX - LHR tag can survive, irregardless of the miniscule AKL - LHR traffic it also carries. There are various factors for and against LHR being kept - for example, in favour of LHR, Brexit may create a bigger medium-term boost to opportunities in the UK, while against LHR, LAX - LHR adds nothing to economies of scale in developing the AKL hub, which NZ is increasingly focusing on growing as the core centrpiece of its international strategy.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:40 am

Here she is - the latest 789 livery to serve AKL! Stunning! The first flight landed today.

Image

See: https://www.facebook.com/AucklandAirpor ... =3&theater.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4189
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:46 am

D7 is dropping AKL from February - I've set up a separate thread to discuss.

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/108 ... land-route.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:54 am

VA has been pleased with its performance, according to JB, in the short space of time since the NZ alliance ended.

Borghetti told reporters after the Virgin Australia annual general meeting in Brisbane on Wednesday the addition of new routes, as well as product upgrades both on the ground and in the air, had been well received by the travelling public, with forward bookings “quite good”. “We are getting not only good feedback but we are seeing bookings shifting our way so that is very good,” Borghetti said.

Is this all hype? What do people think?

See: http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/1 ... borghetti/.

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:09 am

planemanofnz wrote:
I think most people are already well aware of that ... the key point is whether the LAX - LHR tag can survive,
.


Perhaps not if the question has been asked and you call it a tag. It's not a "tag". NZ's intent is for LAXLHR to operate as its' own one leg sector. Read what I said again.

As always with your debate. I'll leave it at that, even though I look at this daily you'll no doubt tell me I'm wrong.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:30 am

NZ6 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
I think most people are already well aware of that ... the key point is whether the LAX - LHR tag can survive,
.


Perhaps not if the question has been asked and you call it a tag. It's not a "tag". NZ's intent is for LAXLHR to operate as its' own one leg sector. Read what I said again.

Ok - tag or dedicated standalone flight - whatever you want to call it, the point for discussion is whether NZ's LAX - LHR flight will survive. This hinges on the factors I outlined above, like LAX - LHR's role within NZ's strategy, and in particular, the AKL hub and building economies of scale there. There are other factors at play too, like the effect of Brexit, competition, and other factors. I'm hopeful we can all critique these matters of substance - there's no need for anyone to get worked up here.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:37 am

planemanofnz wrote:
D7 is dropping AKL from February - I've set up a separate thread to discuss.

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/108 ... land-route.

Cheers,

C.


Have to admit I’m quite surprised by this. They had talked in the past about a non stop AKL service possibly when they got A339’s. I wonder what the biggest issue is other than it seems a lack of revenue from the service? Rising fuel costs, low loads?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:19 am

aerorobnz wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:

- The SQ alliance doesn't seem to cover CDG - anyone know why, and what alternatives there could be? A deal with AF? DUB and MAD are the other two big gaps I see, but obviously SQ doesn't fly to those.



Possibly tactical on the part of NZ so they can route them through HKG which CX serves daily. CX also serves MAD, DUB

I don't think so - IIRC, the CX-NZ JV and cooperation is limited to HKG - AKL/CHC - it doesn't extend to Europe services (someone correct me if I'm wrong). I can't imagine SQ would be too pleased if NZ did start cooperating with CX to Europe.

Cheers,

C.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:29 am

I'm not surprised by D7s departure - I was always a bit puzzled that they even bothered with New Zealand again after CHC. I'm sure they can make the aircraft work better somewhere else on their network. I think it might just be the start of a few carriers that might depart over the next 18 months or so, especially if fuel rises.

As for VA, I don't trust Borghetti one bit, I have seen his internal communications to his staff, and even when they were making record losses and his leadership was in question at the board level he was still telling his staff they are doing well and everything is alright.

Several other things, It is my least favourite of all the videos. I dislike the new video and I am sure it will not last long based on all the feedback I have heard from the public and staff alike..

TN 789 is nice, but looks slightly off in person, especially around the nose. Interior is nice though.

CI 77W Dec-Feb will be something interesting for spotters.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
GW54
Posts: 19
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:22 pm

The decision re a replacement for the 77E when it happens will be interesting as will be the replacement for the 77W a little further down the track. At the end of the day it will go to either Airbus or Boeing. From Air NZ perspective they will have firm EIS dates planned. The replacement time frames are generous and lets not forget all the 77E aircraft have recently had heavy maintenance,cabin upgrades and for the majority WIFI fitted so they are going to be around for a while yet. Yes the A350 is available now but given AirNZ's timelines that is immaterial. My thoughts are leaning still towards Boeing given the range and capacity including cargo of the 778. Cargo is without doubt a major consideration when it comes to the final decision.
 
NYKiwi
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:41 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2018

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:32 pm

I feel NYC and presumably EWR will be about segmenting the US, and leveraging their one stop options for those outside SYD on the Oz end who don't want to do the domestic to Intl transfer at SYD, but also penetrate the NE of the US and Canada. Yes this can be reached from Chicago also but I feel EWR adds more to their network than Chicago does, and living in NY I know people this end would sooner have a non-stop down to NZ than stop somewhere along the way. Potentially there could be a split with Chicago and NYC served 7 days 4 to NYC and 3 to Chi or something like that but I think they will want to go daily to NYC at some stage if they can. Is there enough traffic is the big question. I just hope they do this flight on the A350 with better pitch than the dreamliners have.

Also there is no question in my mind AKL - LHR is hear to stay, as this is 2 flights AKL to LAX and LAX to LHR and NZ have a really good niche in the LA market and far superior product to UA.

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