According to an article on aero.de, Lufthansa has yet to decide, which airplanes will be replaced by the upcoming Boeing 777-9. It is said it could be the B744, the A343 or the A346. Only afterwards LH will decide, whether or not the new T7 will be equipped with first class seats. Still, Lufthansa plans to offer first class on certain high premium routes, if necessary.
Source (German only): https://www.aero.de/news-30205/Lufthans ... -2019.html

That's interesting. For me, it seemed actually quite clear, that the B777-9 will replace the B747-400 and eventually increase capacity. They still operate 14 B744, while they have 20 B779 on order (and I believe some more options). But if it's not decided yet, it could be possible to see the old Jumbo longer in operation than expected. Neither the B744, nor the A343 do have a first class, while the A346 does. Still they replace that one with A359 without first. Maybe we will see some more changes to capacity and offered travel classes in the future in overall LH fleet.

I think in the end, all of the three types will have to be replaced sooner than later and Lufthansa have realised that they have too few planes on order. With the current re-shuffling of types between the hubs (380s to MUC, 346s to FRA and back apparently) and the offering of F in Munich, Lufthansa will have to rethink their situation and will have to re-evaluate which aircraft they want in which role at which airport.

Nothing is set in stone at LH.
They change their plans quite often, which, although very confusing and difficult to follow, helps them staying flexible in ever changing market dynamics.

Carsten Spohr had said that he might need more A350s and less 777-9 but he hasn´t followed up to that claim and orders haven´t changed.
They said they would base all A346 in MUC only to move some to FRA and now bring them back to MUC but not all of them.
These are just examples of how often LH makes a statement and then they change their plans.

When compared to BA and AF/KL, I think it is fair to say that LH plays it rather intelligently....

The article is misleading, LH is looking which routes they want to use the 777-9s on. This includes routes currently served by A343, A346 and 747s. Once this is decided, they can decide if they give the fleet a first class or not.

I can very well be that they might put the 777 on a A346 route and the A346 on the 747-400 route and retire the 747-400. But this is also groundwork for a new order for widebodies.

It's safe to say the upcoming 777-9 will replace their 747-400.

The 779 has the perfect capacity for a 744 replacement. I assume they'll use it to replace the 346 on popular routes and in turn use the 346 to replace the 744, and the 359 for the 343. Otherwise the 35K has a very similar capacity to the 346, so they could order it instead.

Remember the remaining 744s have no first class, the A346 subfleet does.

So the news are that there are no news.

steman wrote:

Nothing is set in stone at LH.
They change their plans quite often, which, although very confusing and difficult to follow, helps them staying flexible in ever changing market dynamics.

Carsten Spohr had said that he might need more A350s and less 777-9 but he hasn´t followed up to that claim and orders haven´t changed.
They said they would base all A346 in MUC only to move some to FRA and now bring them back to MUC but not all of them.
These are just examples of how often LH makes a statement and then they change their plans.

Indeed they do change plans often, in a later article Spohr mentioned they may need more 777-9s... But with other airlines fleet plans are pretty fluid too, depending on market changes and oil prices.

terrificturk wrote:

When compared to BA and AF/KL, I think it is fair to say that LH plays it rather intelligently....

Why? Because 2 years before delivery they still don't know whether to equip a new aircraft with first class or not?

The reshuffling doesn't only happen internally, but also within the whole Group now.
EW/SN will receive some 333's thus the question arises, does future LX or OS fleet expansion also take part in the 77X decision or not.
I believe that at one point LX will get the 359 which capacity-wise is comparable to the 343 (they still have 5).
For me the only option for OS is the 789; a plane in between their 76W and 772 fleet.
A true replacement for the 744 is only the 748, taking into consideration the capacity increase or 346 with reducing seats. Currently, LH serves 9 destinations with the 744 (DEN, DTW, IKA, KIX, MCO, PVG, SEA, YVR, YYZ) - all of which can be handled with either type.

frigatebird wrote:

terrificturk wrote:

When compared to BA and AF/KL, I think it is fair to say that LH plays it rather intelligently....

Why? Because 2 years before delivery they still don't know whether to equip a new aircraft with first class or not?

No, because they are in a position to adjust to ever-changing market demands. Swapping aircraft around to suit current travel needs is a smart thing to do.
Also, two years is a long time in this industry. Many things can happen. The times for long-term planning are long gone. Intelligent responses to changing demands are key.

I agree it's all very confusing, but it's a very fluid situation, and the LH Group (at large) needs to stay adaptable to market trends....

terrificturk wrote:

frigatebird wrote:

terrificturk wrote:

When compared to BA and AF/KL, I think it is fair to say that LH plays it rather intelligently....

Why? Because 2 years before delivery they still don't know whether to equip a new aircraft with first class or not?

No, because they are in a position to adjust to ever-changing market demands. Swapping aircraft around to suit current travel needs is a smart thing to do.
Also, two years is a long time in this industry. Many things can happen. The times for long-term planning are long gone. Intelligent responses to changing demands are key.

Generally, airlines must submit their aircraft configuration to Boeing 18 months before delivery. So they have around half a year to wrap it up, shouldn't be a problem of course but it's not all the time of the world.

Sure, LH is doing the right thing adjusting to travel needs. But I can't really see BA or KL acting differently.

Lufthansa does an excellent job switching aircraft around as needed, as many of their routes are very seasonally heavy. The 747-8 subfleet, for example, switches back and forth on routes that have very heavy premium demand like LAX-FRA during summer months, rotating into other markets in the off season.

It is my understanding as well (from what I have read here) that LH's upcoming upgauge of SAN's service from the A340-300 to the A340-600 (x3 per week out of 5) will have those F seats sold as business. Maybe as "premium business"? And maybe that is what they are thinking in some markets as well?

Whatever LH's fleet plans are, I am hopeful that the plane they choose can continue to fly to SAN effectively - an A330 won't cut it cargo-wise (much less luggage-wise!), and the 787 doesn't seem to be on their radar. And if all the A350's are going to be based at MUC, keeping our (almost) daily FRA flight is going to require something that can handle our runway. Hopefully the 777-9 fits the bill!

frigatebird wrote:

Generally, airlines must submit their aircraft configuration to Boeing 18 months before delivery. So they have around half a year to wrap it up, shouldn't be a problem of course but it's not all the time of the world.

Sure, LH is doing the right thing adjusting to travel needs. But I can't really see BA or KL acting differently.

Generally does not mean it is the case for LH since we do not know the contract signed. At least I dont.

I cannot see BA nor AF/KL doing teh same thing since they do not have such a versatile fleet, nor a real dual-hub strategy. Ba doesnt even have two interchangeable hubs and AF/KL are not mixing theirs either... infact, AF has quite some issues on the plate as it is. They are known for their lethargy.

LH's 744's are no doubt in immaculate condition, but aren't those some of the highest
hour 744's still in service. Surely, the remaining 744's will be the first to be replaced?

Cabin configurations are not fixed, so there is no direct connection between 777-9 cabin configuration and the type it will replace.

How far in advance do you have to order first/business class seats to get them in time? I thought they were in short supply...

AirlineCritic wrote:

How far in advance do you have to order first/business class seats to get them in time? I thought they were in short supply...

Very good point (besides the availability of properly working engines...)! In fact, the cabin refit of LX 343's is delayed by almost a year now due to the ongoing issues with the seat manufacturer. Also, the same business seat might not be the same when put on different aircraft types due to the shape of the fuselage.

Summer 2019 .... !!

OA940 wrote:

The 779 has the perfect capacity for a 744 replacement. I assume they'll use it to replace the 346 on popular routes and in turn use the 346 to replace the 744, and the 359 for the 343. Otherwise the 35K has a very similar capacity to the 346, so they could order it instead.

At the time of placing the huge order for 25 A359 and 20 (+14) B777-9 the plan made perfect sense:
A359 would replace the A343, 779 would replace A346 and 744.
Then plans started to change. A359 started to be delivered to MUC where they started replacing A346 (there were no A343 in MUC).
One would think the A359 is the perfect replacement for the A343 but LH decided it would be a better fit for the MUC based A346.
From a seat count perspective, the two models are almost identical, though the A346 have First Class and the A359 don´t.
One would also think that the A343 would leave the fleet earlier, since they´re older. Instead LH retired some A346 earlier than some A343 (only to bring a couple back in service when demand increased).
The A343 are apparently cheaper to operate because fully paid for and not burdened by a heavy MRO contract for the engines like the A346.
So much so that they´ve even been used for the Jump initiative to lower operating costs on some routes.
So, what will the 779 replace? Probably the A346 first and the 744 next.
Having to main bases of long haul models further complicates matters. Where to base the new models? Only in FRA? Only in MUC? On both bases?

Sooner787 wrote:

LH's 744's are no doubt in immaculate condition, but aren't those some of the highest
hour 744's still in service. Surely, the remaining 744's will be the first to be replaced?

Sure they all have a high number of hours and cycles. But no 744 is even remotely close to its limits. If they are to be replaced, it's not because of the hours.
Wouldn't be too surprised if some 779 will be used simply for growth in MUC and FRA keeps the 744 for while.

From what I understand of the article, LH will take the time until the summer of 2019 to decide the role the new 777's will play, which aircraft they will replace. THEN they will decide whether or not to put in a first class. Mr. Hohmeister then says that as apart of Lufthansa's strategy as a premium carrier, wants to have first class where it makes sense.

Maybe some aircraft will and some won't. What is also interesting in the article, is a link to where it says that they want to introduce a new business class with the introduction of the new 777's.

Which aircraft? it depends. The B744's will have to be replaced sooner or later, the A343's are getting old, but as mentioned earlier by some other a.netters, they are cheap to fly. The A346's are not that old, but what is the second hand market value of them?

It is true that when the A346 left MUC they lost some first class capacity, but then the A380's came and filled some of the gap.

I think Lufthansa carefully analyzes where to use first class seats. Configurations can change.

The "problem" with first class is that it is very expensive. Yes, they are used by celebrities and heads of large corporations, some who actually have it in their contract that they get to fly in first class. A lot of passengers who fly first class are upgrades, yet you want to keep your business passengers happy and have a way for them to part with a lot of points as well. A tricky combination.

The other new componen is that the third runway at MUC is postponed to at least 2030. That means they Need larger aircraft at MUC to accommmodate growth. Both for Feeder and for Long haul flights. Plus they are playing games with Fraport claiming that ops at MUC are 20% cheaper. FRA has still room for growth of traffic, they crss the 500 K ops line this year and the capacity is 701 K p.a. .

All that needs high flexibility in planning. No Problem for LH

terrificturk wrote:

frigatebird wrote:

terrificturk wrote:

When compared to BA and AF/KL, I think it is fair to say that LH plays it rather intelligently....

Why? Because 2 years before delivery they still don't know whether to equip a new aircraft with first class or not?

No, because they are in a position to adjust to ever-changing market demands. Swapping aircraft around to suit current travel needs is a smart thing to do.
Also, two years is a long time in this industry. Many things can happen. The times for long-term planning are long gone. Intelligent responses to changing demands are key.

How is this different to BA who have a pretty clear fleet strategy in place? I don't really understand your original point.

They will exactly know what they need when they order it - actually before.
A lot of the switching back and forth seems to be intended to just confuse their competitors and keep some blogs busy. I don't buy that they decide about everything at the very last minute. Not Lufthansa. They just don't share everything from the first minute.

stylo777 wrote:

The reshuffling doesn't only happen internally, but also within the whole Group now.
EW/SN will receive some 333's thus the question arises, does future LX or OS fleet expansion also take part in the 77X decision or not.
I believe that at one point LX will get the 359 which capacity-wise is comparable to the 343 (they still have 5).
For me the only option for OS is the 789; a plane in between their 76W and 772 fleet.
A true replacement for the 744 is only the 748, taking into consideration the capacity increase or 346 with reducing seats. Currently, LH serves 9 destinations with the 744 (DEN, DTW, IKA, KIX, MCO, PVG, SEA, YVR, YYZ) - all of which can be handled with either type.

As of March 2019, we can add PHL to that list. I wonder if LH will replace that 744 destination with the 748 or use a 777 variant once the 744 is retired. To me, it looks like the 748 will replace some 744s where high enough demand exists but will use the somewhat smaller 777 frames elsewhere. I left out the A380 as I think that's too big for a 744 replacement.

steeler83 wrote:

To me, it looks like the 748 will replace some 744s where high enough demand exists but will use the somewhat smaller 777 frames elsewhere. I left out the A380 as I think that's too big for a 744 replacement.

If you use the 748 to replace some 744 routes that means replacing those 748s with something smaller (probably 779).

stylo777 wrote:

A true replacement for the 744 is only the 748 ...

But why? The current LH 744 config is 67 / 32 / 272. If we take the Swiss 77W as a comparison you would be able to fit a similar amount of seats. The LX 77W config is 8 / 62 / 0 / 270, if you remove first class there should be enough space for 4 rows of 2-4-2 premium economy. The result would be a 77W with 364 seats vs the LH 744 with 371 seats. And since LH is getting the -9 you have about 3 more meters of cabin space.