Not looking great with the winter season almost upon us now...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45887289

Any likelihood BA could swoop & turn it into part of City Flyer?

You can never say never with IAG, but given BA effectively paid Flybe to take BA Connect off its hands, it’s highly unlikely.

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

I can also think of Wideroe, Air Nostrum and Binter Canarias.

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

Not to mention they also serve markets hardly anyone else will consider serving such as the smaller UK regional airports, places such as the Isle of Man (admittedly somewhere easyJet has been increasing its presence in recent years though they only compete on one route and even then BE have more frequencies) and running domestic routes to smaller markets. Whether some of these routes are profitable is another thing, though I suspect BE's current issues now and in recent years aren't entirely down to the route portfolio.

Boeing74741R wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

Not to mention they also serve markets hardly anyone else will consider serving such as the smaller UK regional airports, places such as the Isle of Man (admittedly somewhere easyJet has been increasing its presence in recent years though they only compete on one route and even then BE have more frequencies) and running domestic routes to smaller markets. Whether some of these routes are profitable is another thing, though I suspect BE's current issues now and in recent years aren't entirely down to the route portfolio.

100%

BE serve loads of markets where you would struggle to get a replacement without introducing large PSO subsidies - the only players I can think of that would maybe be able to fill some gaps would be bmi Regional/Loganair or maybe Stobart launching services under their own brand. Airports like SOU, EXT, NQY, BHD, ABZ, IOM, even LCY, MAN & BHX, would lose out big time and these are places where the ground transport alternatives are often not very appealing.

I do think they need to focus as much as possible on core profitability, flying E175s from Doncaster to Alicante seems bizarre. I know it was part of the deal they got to base their E195s but they should ditch routes like that if they are not clearly profitable year round. I would trim back the fleet to purely Q400s and if they want to fly some odd sun/ski routes at weekends from their hubs then most of them can be flown with Q400s anyway.

most of their planes are leased. the annual report said two thirds of planes are leased leave 27 planes in their ownership and their average fleet age is about 9.5 years old.
If they own rickety old Q400s then breaking the company down for slaughter might not even be profitable.

fuel can't be as big a cost for them as for other airlines as these are turboprops on short trips for the most part.
They must be getting eaten alive on the leases denominated in foreign currencies.

Of course the airport departure tax means that Her Majesty's Government is making more out of each passenger than FlyBE does. The UK will be left with no native airlines.

I hold more shares in my company(modest as my holding is) than the directors of FlyBE hold in their company.
They'll keep the show on the road with a strategy of retreat, retreat, retreat until their is no money left to pay their salaries.

how can they have 501 engineering/maintenance staff for a relatively small fleet. The extension in maintenance Windows for Q400s really should have an impact on their maintenance costs but they make no mention of it.

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

I currently have to go from Scotland to Birmingham weekly for a morning meeting; I've tried same day driving (need to leave at 3:30am, and get back about 10pm - costs about £80 in Petrol. I've tried taking the Train, but that takes 4 and a half hours each way, so need to travel the evening before - costs are varied, depending on availability. So I've become a quasi regular with flybe, picking and choosing Glasgow or Edinburgh to Birmingham or East Midlands depending on fares. No frills, but the flight time is 50 minutes, so I'm not too fussed. But...

leghorn wrote:

Of course the airport departure tax means that Her Majesty's Government is making more out of each passenger than FlyBE does.

My flights this week cost a total of £69.98 return - the actual fare was £15, with £55 going to APD and Airport Fees. That can't be sustainable.
I'm concerned that if flybe stop operating the route, I'll end up wasting a lot of time traveling.

They are covered ín the new issue of the Airliner World. Just sayin'.

leghorn wrote:

how can they have 501 engineering/maintenance staff for a relatively small fleet. The extension in maintenance Windows for Q400s really should have an impact on their maintenance costs but they make no mention of it.

They perform Heavy Maintenance for other Operators at Exeter, so that would be one reason to have so many staff. I do believe though that some of their Maintenance at outstations is in fact contracted out to other MRO's. Maybe the figures include those services as well.

LHRFlyer wrote:

You can never say never with IAG, but given BA effectively paid Flybe to take BA Connect off its hands, it’s highly unlikely.

Difficult to see I know, but I hope BA does step in here, and gives BE a shot under BA's full control..... I'm certain BA could pass on some of their purchasing economies to BE, and help with sales and overheads.

It would give BA the opportunity to quickly re-establish some sort of foot-hold at Birmingham and Manchester once again if nothing else.

I was also told last year that the SOU operation was free-standing commercially, so there has to be some elements of BE that are worthwhile.

LTU330 wrote:

leghorn wrote:

how can they have 501 engineering/maintenance staff for a relatively small fleet. The extension in maintenance Windows for Q400s really should have an impact on their maintenance costs but they make no mention of it.

They perform Heavy Maintenance for other Operators at Exeter, so that would be one reason to have so many staff. I do believe though that some of their Maintenance at outstations is in fact contracted out to other MRO's. Maybe the figures include those services as well.

They list about 2100 to 2200 employees in the last annual accounts. about 600 pilots, about 700 cabin crew, 501 engineering and the remaining admin staff.

Seems a strange time to introduce a new livery for their planes.? Maybe purple paint is more expensive.

As the article says they are 'sandwiched' between the low cost airlines and the big carriers.. don't seem to have a clear business plan...

. . . and I was a bit suprised to see their Q400's flying down into Heathrow,,, I cant imagine they can be making much profit on that. I can only think it is for passengers connecting via Heathrow.

That'd be two airport departure taxes to pay.

Article on the slots:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... edy-slots/

The slots seem like an asset that might be more attractive than decade old Q400s.

For FlyBe the good times are always just around the corner, because they have the right strategy now. But I just don't buy this any more, Widener has been in place for almost two years, so it is her decisions and leadership which is now delivering results, or not as the case might be. Currency slips and fuel costs should not be unexpected, the business was supposed to have been transformed under her leadership so it was robust enough to weather these types of eventualities without issuing a profit warning, and poor demand over the summer... astonishing.

The half year results will be interesting to see, right now I can't see any cause for optimism. I really really hope they pull their act together, because it will be damning for the UK's regions to lose FlyBe.

PlymSpotter wrote:

For FlyBe the good times are always just around the corner, because they have the right strategy now. But I just don't buy this any more, Widener has been in place for almost two years, so it is her decisions and leadership which is now delivering results, or not as the case might be. Currency slips and fuel costs should not be unexpected, the business was supposed to have been transformed under her leadership so it was robust enough to weather these types of eventualities without issuing a profit warning, and poor demand over the summer... astonishing.

The half year results will be interesting to see, right now I can't see any cause for optimism. I really really hope they pull their act together, because it will be damning for the UK's regions to lose FlyBe.

If they keep volumes and occupany levels up then they might be attractive to a buyer who have the wherewithall to tackle their cost base and secure airframes on less punitive terms.

Bhoy wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

I currently have to go from Scotland to Birmingham weekly for a morning meeting; I've tried same day driving (need to leave at 3:30am, and get back about 10pm - costs about £80 in Petrol. I've tried taking the Train, but that takes 4 and a half hours each way, so need to travel the evening before - costs are varied, depending on availability. So I've become a quasi regular with flybe, picking and choosing Glasgow or Edinburgh to Birmingham or East Midlands depending on fares. No frills, but the flight time is 50 minutes, so I'm not too fussed. But...

leghorn wrote:

Of course the airport departure tax means that Her Majesty's Government is making more out of each passenger than FlyBE does.

My flights this week cost a total of £69.98 return - the actual fare was £15, with £55 going to APD and Airport Fees. That can't be sustainable.
I'm concerned that if flybe stop operating the route, I'll end up wasting a lot of time traveling.

The airline keeps but 15 of 70?!? That is a legislative decision to ban regional flying.

It is like high fuel taxes are legislation to export hubbing.

Lightsaber

leghorn wrote:

PlymSpotter wrote:

For FlyBe the good times are always just around the corner, because they have the right strategy now. But I just don't buy this any more, Widener has been in place for almost two years, so it is her decisions and leadership which is now delivering results, or not as the case might be. Currency slips and fuel costs should not be unexpected, the business was supposed to have been transformed under her leadership so it was robust enough to weather these types of eventualities without issuing a profit warning, and poor demand over the summer... astonishing.

The half year results will be interesting to see, right now I can't see any cause for optimism. I really really hope they pull their act together, because it will be damning for the UK's regions to lose FlyBe.

If they keep volumes and occupany levels up then they might be attractive to a buyer who have the wherewithall to tackle their cost base and secure airframes on less punitive terms.

My preference would be to start afresh as possible; no E-Jets at all, and a fleet of 20-30 ATR 72-600s to operate the core regional routes only. FlyBe in a way are victims of their own 'success' - they've bordered on predatory business practices when smaller carriers have tried to operate from the UK's regions, which also stifles the viability of start-ups in this space. Often this has happened only for FlyBe to realise they can't make money flying a Q400 / whatever on said routes anyway. The remaining routes that are loss making for FlyBe either need to be consolidated and flown by local carriers with smaller equipment, or need to benefit from PSOs which can keep the route flying with FlyBe.

PlymSpotter wrote:

The half year results will be interesting to see, right now I can't see any cause for optimism. I really really hope they pull their act together, because it will be damning for the UK's regions to lose FlyBe.

For Norwich and Exeter maybe, who would lose most of their scheduled service. I suspect someone else would move in fairly quick at Exeter at least (FR are dipping their toe in already). Everywhere else they serve is either served at a decent scale by someone else or close to somewhere that is.

Or, fans of obscure niche routes. Aberdeen - Durham anyone? No wonder they flush money away.

evomutant wrote:

Or, fans of obscure niche routes. Aberdeen - Durham anyone? No wonder they flush money away.

I presume that this route is supported by the energy industry.

holcakker wrote:

They are covered ín the new issue of the Airliner World. Just sayin'.

The curse strikes again.....maybe!

Embajador3 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

I can also think of Wideroe, Air Nostrum and Binter Canarias.

Air Nostrum is basically Iberia Regional, Wideroe is relatively small. But Binter Canarias is an interesting example since their business model isn't too different from FlyBe's: connecting islands. I had indeed overlooked them.

flyingphil wrote:

Seems a strange time to introduce a new livery for their planes.? Maybe purple paint is more expensive...
. . . and I was a bit suprised to see their Q400's flying down into Heathrow,,, I cant imagine they can be making much profit on that. I can only think it is for passengers connecting via Heathrow.

The new livery is apparently being applied at 'no extra cost to the business':
https://www.flybe.com/media/news/1809/0409

Regarding its Heathrow ops, just this week Flybe's CEO was talking about adding a 5th daily Heathrow-Edinburgh service. It must be profitable, or at least doing better than its other routes.

PlymSpotter wrote:

My preference would be to start afresh as possible; no E-Jets at all, and a fleet of 20-30 ATR 72-600s to operate the core regional routes only. FlyBe in a way are victims of their own 'success' - they've bordered on predatory business practices when smaller carriers have tried to operate from the UK's regions, which also stifles the viability of start-ups in this space. Often this has happened only for FlyBe to realise they can't make money flying a Q400 / whatever on said routes anyway. The remaining routes that are loss making for FlyBe either need to be consolidated and flown by local carriers with smaller equipment, or need to benefit from PSOs which can keep the route flying with FlyBe.

They have been trying to return the EJets for ages now. Finally as the leases expire they will be able to phase out the E195s from service by the end of next year. The E175s have a similar seat count to the Q400s so shouldn't be any harder to fill but they do add complexity to the fleet. They're taking delivery of 4 new E175s next year so the current ones are likely making profits. The Q400 is an aircraft Flybe has operated for ages and is experienced with - although ATRs are cheaper and probably better suited to what Flybe would use them for sticking with the Q400 is the right way to go. They are familiar with the a/c type so best to keep things simple.

It should have stuck with was it was reasonably skilled at and tooled for and that was regional UK connectivity. It's strategy of being everything at once shows how it has lost its direction. Competing with U2/FR was never going to work. Getting rid of the EJets, trimming the fat and concentrating on its core markets is key. A single fleet will help. The Q400 has good legs for longer trips but longer trips cut into the efficiency and utilisation of the fleet.

Anyone know how LHR is working out? It's lasted longer than I thought. It's a shame they can't tie up with U2/FR at MAN as they seem to do ok out of long haul connections out of there.

People have alluded to the fact that the £9.99 brigade simply aren't worth chasing. I think peoooe have been spoiled and they don't appreciate paying £100 return for a UK domestic. Perhaps they can focus on value added things like a complimentary snack and soft drink which will soften the blow and a menu available for purchase if anyone wants alcohol or something more substantion a la Virgin Australia. Few people seem to buy anything from the service here on the UK domestics I use. It will also help provide a more consistent experience to those connecting to long haul with all of the 'freebies' that provides.

Here's a thought, instead of BA how about VS? Of course Virgin have their own financial issues at the minute but with support from DL/KL/AF they could turn BE into a very good feeder airline. They already have a partnership of sorts.

Given how it's debatable whether Virgin Atlantic will exist as a brand in the next few years how about combining the two as Air UK This last bit is me being silly but I do think that VS could use a good feeder network and BE is a great fit domestically with a good UK-EU network too.

As for the APD Taxes, total farce and proves how bent this government is when they are taking such a huge chunk of the airfare.

Phil
FlyingColours

jghealey wrote:

flyingphil wrote:

Seems a strange time to introduce a new livery for their planes.? Maybe purple paint is more expensive...
. . . and I was a bit suprised to see their Q400's flying down into Heathrow,,, I cant imagine they can be making much profit on that. I can only think it is for passengers connecting via Heathrow.

The new livery is apparently being applied at 'no extra cost to the business':
https://www.flybe.com/media/news/1809/0409

It basically means aircraft will be repainted into the new livery as and when they become due for a repaint, rather than taking them out of service at the first opportunity to go into a paint hangar. The article states something to that effect.

Some may argue it's poor for brand consistency, but I suspect BE is more interested in ensuring they can run their advertised service and (try to) make money rather than spending money when it's not necessary. The same tactic has no doubt been used by other airlines globally. People won't be happy if flights are being cancelled due to lack of aircraft and they find it's because the airline has been prioritising repaints over running the advertised service.

Another example is on the railways: ScotRail introduced their 'Saltire' blue livery 10 years ago, but at the time it was stated that, like what BE have done, trains would only be painted when they became due. That tactic has stuck because 10 years later there's still a few trains in older liveries, some of which are the Class 314 fleet that's about to be withdrawn from service.

FlyingColours wrote:

Here's a thought, instead of BA how about VS?

Phil
FlyingColours

VS's Little Red didn't last long for UK domestic, so I can't see them wanting to try again. VS already have an agreement with BE (and actually BA) to feed their long haul destinations (eg ABZ BGI)
VS 8409 Y 15JAN ABZLHR HS1 0705 0900
OPERATED BY FLYBE
VS 131 Y 15JAN LHRBGI HS1 1315 1805

No-one "swooped" in to save ZB; just let your competitors go to the wall and operate the profitable routes yourself if they exist. Sounds mercenary but it's a business not a charity.

An over 50% drop in share price over a few months is enough mandate to give a management team justification for considerable change.

I don't know why a 76 seat fleet have bucket and spade price sensitive routes in it because they are a) price sensitive b) taking small planes away from local profitable business and you might get 2 turns out of each in the time of one on a long route.

Indeed acquisitions of troubled airlines are rare these days if we don't count a certain troubled ME3 airline's purchases over the last few years. It's more efficient to let them implode and pick up the pieces.

Bhoy wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

I currently have to go from Scotland to Birmingham weekly for a morning meeting; I've tried same day driving (need to leave at 3:30am, and get back about 10pm - costs about £80 in Petrol. I've tried taking the Train, but that takes 4 and a half hours each way, so need to travel the evening before - costs are varied, depending on availability. So I've become a quasi regular with flybe, picking and choosing Glasgow or Edinburgh to Birmingham or East Midlands depending on fares. No frills, but the flight time is 50 minutes, so I'm not too fussed. But...

leghorn wrote:

Of course the airport departure tax means that Her Majesty's Government is making more out of each passenger than FlyBE does.

My flights this week cost a total of £69.98 return - the actual fare was £15, with £55 going to APD and Airport Fees. That can't be sustainable.
I'm concerned that if flybe stop operating the route, I'll end up wasting a lot of time traveling.

Great examples of the importance of flyBE. Their loss would be devastating to many of the communities they serve.

lightsaber wrote:

The airline keeps but 15 of 70?!? That is a legislative decision to ban regional flying.

Actually the airline keeps £15 out of £15. Just like Dell keeps £1000 out of £1000 of a £1200 laptop.

The fact that they chose to price a flight at £15 is entirely their decision.

Noticeably on their services to and from Northern Ireland they don't offer prices that low, because that's a market to be squeezed for every penny due to the lack of road and rail alternatives.

mxaxai wrote:

Air Nostrum is basically Iberia Regional

Which is completely wrong. They also operate for SAS, and are taking over CityJet, who in turn also operate for SAS as well as Aer Lingus and Brussels Airlines.

jghealey wrote:

The Q400 is an aircraft Flybe has operated for ages and is experienced with - although ATRs are cheaper and probably better suited to what Flybe would use them for sticking with the Q400 is the right way to go. They are familiar with the a/c type so best to keep things simple.

FlyBe is already familiar with the ATR. They have 5 flying on the SAS contract. Blue Islands and Stobart also fly a number on behalf of FlyBe.

Thanks for the link about repainting the fleet.. yes, so it is being done at no extra cost as part of the usual cycle of maintenance... I doubt that the traveling public would take much notice I suppose..

The route map is interesting.. I had no idea they were flying from RAF Valley in Angelsey down to Cardiff... now that is a niche route.. for RAF Service men??

Interesting that they want to increase frequency of the Heathrow to Edinburgh route.. so I assume they are making money.
I would have thought that route is pretty much saturated these days with BA and then EasyJet from the other London airports.. and then BA CityFlyer from London City competing with FlyBe. If I had a choice I would opt for BA CityFlyers Embraers from London City to Edinburgh rather than FlyBe’s old Q400’s.

VS Little Red flew Heathrow to Edinburgh for a while.. I had a few trips with them, was good service, but I understood it was always a temporary thing to sit on the slots at LHR while they waited for more long haul planes to be delivered.. the A320’s were wet leased from Aer Lingus.

Well.. I wish FlyBe well... hope they can return to profit.

SelseyBill wrote:

LHRFlyer wrote:

You can never say never with IAG, but given BA effectively paid Flybe to take BA Connect off its hands, it’s highly unlikely.

Difficult to see I know, but I hope BA does step in here, and gives BE a shot under BA's full control..... I'm certain BA could pass on some of their purchasing economies to BE, and help with sales and overheads.

It would give BA the opportunity to quickly re-establish some sort of foot-hold at Birmingham and Manchester once again if nothing else.

I was also told last year that the SOU operation was free-standing commercially, so there has to be some elements of BE that are worthwhile.

Why would BA/IAG buy BE? From BA's LHR base, BE only fly to Aberdeen and Edinburgh, and in competition with BA. Therefore, since BE would't be adding valuable feed to BA's network, it's hard to see any value in BE for BA.

Does Flybe own the lhr slots ? If so could be bought by someone.
Also the Birmingham gap might be taken over by easyJet as they have no presence really in the midlands anymore

Given how some of the smaller EU carriers are dropping BE's demise is perhaps not too far off.

mxaxai wrote:

Embajador3 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

I hope they can turn it around. FlyBe is the only large independent regional airline I know of. But it's certainly a difficult business model.

I can also think of Wideroe, Air Nostrum and Binter Canarias.

Air Nostrum is basically Iberia Regional, Wideroe is relatively small. But Binter Canarias is an interesting example since their business model isn't too different from FlyBe's: connecting islands. I had indeed overlooked them.

Well, the core of Air Nostrum business is flying pax for IB, but they also do a lot of their own work and even lease their planes to other airlines.

flyingphil wrote:

The route map is interesting.. I had no idea they were flying from RAF Valley in Angelsey down to Cardiff... now that is a niche route.. for RAF Service men??.

This is operated by Eastern Airways who stepped in to take over the route after Citywing (Manx2) went bust. As T3 are now a BE franchise, it's operated under a BE flight number. It's a PSO route, so max 19 seats sold, even though it's operated by 29 seat J41's.

As mentioned previously in the thread, it does seem to be a strange time to be repainting the whole fleet... Unless there are a raft of changes afoot such as consolidating routes, etc.

The maintenance side of the operation at Exeter accounts for a fair proportion of the movements at the airfield. Obviously GA is number one, followed by Flybe and Capital, then incoming/outgoing maintenance from the Flybe hangars. Whilst Ryanair have obviously announced their intentions to begin flights at Exeter I am intrigued as to where Flybe go from here... Get it wrong and it could be all over. Get it right and they'll grow to something profitable and those shares will rise again.

Something tells me it might be worth investing a few shares now while they are low and in 12-18 months time they'll have got their act together enough that you could sell the shares at a profit... Before the inevitable next slump.