Ethiopian drops ADD-DUB-LAX, adds ADD-LFW(Lomé)-LAX

janders · Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:14 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
It makes sense. LAX has too much competition and the Ethiopian community there isn't that large to begin with.

Second largest diaspora behind D.C. Per Census estimate was 96.000

AF022 wrote:
What a snob. He could fly Ethiopian from LAX to Addis but instead takes a slower connection on Emirates or Turkish? Its great to see this guy supporting his community. Ethiopian is a great airline. To compare it with Saudia is laughable.

Just because he is Ethiopian does not mean he has to fly them. Heck that's the beauty of having options. For all we know he prefers the product, schedule, frequent flyer benefits, etc on EK/TK more.

Similar I have a Kenyan colleague who also chooses EK & TK for trips home with his family.

To me it seems carriers like TK & ME3 do a great job serving Africa destinations via their hubs.

berari · Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:38 pm

UPlog wrote:
My neighbor is Ethiopian doctor and seemingly whenever family members travel home they took Emirates or Turkish.
He once told me bottom of barrel traffic flew ET and Saudia for what its worth.

I would argue that they fly Emirates and Turkish because these two offer lower prices compared to the one aircraft/direct LAX-ADD service that ET offers. So perhaps you have mixed up the bottom barrel clientele which is after the lowest price and not comfort and/or prestige. The bottom barrel not only looks for the cheapest lowest yielding fares, but are also willing to inconvenience themselves with multiple stops and long layovers contrary to what ET offers on the LAX-ADD route.

tcaeyx · Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:46 pm

According to the moderator of Ethiopian Airlines's Ireland Facebook page, it looks like the flight will operate via Lagos instead of Dublin.

seabosdca · Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:01 pm

tcaeyx wrote:
According to the moderator of Ethiopian Airlines's Ireland Facebook page, it looks like the flight will operate via Lagos instead of Dublin.

On one level, that's a logical response to apparent loss of fifth freedom rights from Ireland.

On the other hand, LOS-LAX is a long route that will push the limits of the 787-8 and use a lot of fuel. I wonder if they can achieve sufficient loads + yields to make it worthwhile.

Galwayman · Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:23 pm

I’ve heard another rumour that the flight continues via Dub to Lax without local Dub traffic ... perhaps just stopping one way and go direct on the return journey

LAXintl · Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:26 pm

berari wrote:
I would argue that they fly Emirates and Turkish because these two offer lower prices compared to the one aircraft/direct LAX-ADD service that ET offers. So perhaps you have mixed up the bottom barrel clientele which is after the lowest price and not comfort and/or prestige. The bottom barrel not only looks for the cheapest lowest yielding fares, but are also willing to inconvenience themselves with multiple stops and long layovers contrary to what ET offers on the LAX-ADD route.

Actually, per MIDT data, the reality is that both EK and TK earn higher fare between LAX and ADD than ET does.

Being merely 3x a week with less than ideal timings is a handicap for ET compared to competitors that can get you to ADD on multiple flights.

Also the premium/business traffic is unlikely to choose ET either based on its low frequency.

So yes I would say the assumption that ET and probably SV do transport the lower end of the market is correct, while carriers like EK and TK can carry higher revenue clients to ADD.

SurfandSnow · Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:36 pm

It would be quite something if Ethiopian managed to get fifth freedom rights LOS-LAX. It's not like the Nigerians have been known to make things easy for foreign airlines...

The777Man · Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:38 pm

I guess it's back on !

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... n-changes/

No traffic rights DUB-LAX-DUB

The777Man

janders · Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:41 pm

LOS stop be quite a detour. That's almost 1000 miles of extra flying versus DUB which was almost on great circle path.

Also LOS-LAX on its own at 7700mi be quite a haul. That's further than LAX-HKG and approaching ULH territory.

FA9295 · Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:02 pm

The777Man wrote:
I guess it's back on !

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... n-changes/

No traffic rights DUB-LAX-DUB

The777Man

Interesting that they no longer have traffic rights on the LAX-DUB sector... Perhaps that was why they initially took the flight off the schedule...

Regardless, the title of this thread may need to be changed in order to reflect this...

Fastphilly · Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:57 am

bfitzflyer wrote:
Might make sense to move to SFO, bigger Star hub assuming the cooperate well with UA. Also premium heavy business market.

I’m a SFO homer but I’d say that flight would be DOA. Addis Ababa and the country as a whole is big in manufacturing of textiles and other commodities. Polar opposite to the leading business sectors in the Bay Area.

LAXLHR · Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:00 am

TheKennady2 wrote:
Never understood this Service, LA is huge market but has alot of competition and has 1 stop options to major African destinations via the EU. Little connectivity in LAX means this targeted mostly O&D to Africa from LA and the service flies over more capable connecting hubs along with making a tech stop both ways. Airports like ORD, IAD, EWR are better suited for ET service, LA just does not have the geography, and its to far to be a viable place to serve from Africa.

I love people that spout off about geography and know nothing about population and ethnic make up. LA has one of the biggest Ethiopian populations in North America, outside of the DC area and Toronto. The operation was showing positive results and was working.

seabosdca · Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:29 am

If the ADD-LOS-LAX rumor is true, it occurs to me that ET would be able to use the 787-9, possibly improving the economics a little bit compared with the 787-8. The airline is disadvantaged by having to use field-performance-optimized aircraft on all its long-haul, but wouldn't need to do so on ADD-LOS-LAX. Are ET's 787-9s configured with a crew rest and a high enough MTOW to fly a 6700 nm route?

planemanofnz · Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:53 am

Why/how did they lose local traffic rights on DUB - LAX? Irish protectionism, to support EI who since ET started DUB - LAX, have re-started DUB - LAX? Or, was it a case of them not wanting local traffic on DUB - LAX, and wanting to allow more space for Africa - LAX traffic?

On DUB, why are they still extending ADD - MAD to DUB, if DUB retains the non-stop ADD - DUB flight, the traffic rights of which I assume are unaffected by the loss of DUB - LAX traffic rights?

Cheers,

C.

TheKennady2 · Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:59 am

LAXLHR wrote:
TheKennady2 wrote:
Never understood this Service, LA is huge market but has alot of competition and has 1 stop options to major African destinations via the EU. Little connectivity in LAX means this targeted mostly O&D to Africa from LA and the service flies over more capable connecting hubs along with making a tech stop both ways. Airports like ORD, IAD, EWR are better suited for ET service, LA just does not have the geography, and its to far to be a viable place to serve from Africa.

I love people that spout off about geography and know nothing about population and ethnic make up. LA has one of the biggest Ethiopian populations in North America, outside of the DC area and Toronto. The operation was showing positive results and was working.

I know many Ethiopians are in the LA Area, still does not change what i said about geography making the route challenging on both sides, connections are limited and O&D passengers from LA have many other options.

hynithuchi · Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:33 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Why/how did they lose local traffic rights on DUB - LAX? Irish protectionism, to support EI who since ET started DUB - LAX, have re-started DUB - LAX? Or, was it a case of them not wanting local traffic on DUB - LAX, and wanting to allow more space for Africa - LAX traffic?

On DUB, why are they still extending ADD - MAD to DUB, if DUB retains the non-stop ADD - DUB flight, the traffic rights of which I assume are unaffected by the loss of DUB - LAX traffic rights?

Cheers,

C.

Are those flights via MAD operating the same day ? It really wouldn't make much sense then, but honestly, the way ET keeps changing their flights around ( particularly to MAD ), I'm convinced we haven't heard the last about their routing and schedule changes.

LAXdude1023 · Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:05 pm

janders wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
It makes sense. LAX has too much competition and the Ethiopian community there isn't that large to begin with.

Second largest diaspora behind D.C. Per Census estimate was 96.000

s.

Nope, not true. Below is the number of foreign born Ethiopians per metro area as of 2016:

Ethiopia
1. Washington DC: 53,076 people
2. Minneapolis: 22,302
3. Seattle: 17,573
4. Atlanta: 16,520
5. Dallas: 9889
6. Los Angeles: 9479
7. Las Vegas: 7501
8. San Francisco: 6520
9. Houston: 6285
10. New York: 6021

LA doesn't have near 96,000 Ethiopians. Even when factoring in all ethnic groups in Ethiopia and those born in the US, in LA that number doesn't approach 30,000. Theres only about 260,000 foreign born Ethiopians in the US as a whole.

LAXdude1023 · Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:08 pm

LAXLHR wrote:
TheKennady2 wrote:
Never understood this Service, LA is huge market but has alot of competition and has 1 stop options to major African destinations via the EU. Little connectivity in LAX means this targeted mostly O&D to Africa from LA and the service flies over more capable connecting hubs along with making a tech stop both ways. Airports like ORD, IAD, EWR are better suited for ET service, LA just does not have the geography, and its to far to be a viable place to serve from Africa.

I love people that spout off about geography and know nothing about population and ethnic make up. LA has one of the biggest Ethiopian populations in North America, outside of the DC area and Toronto. The operation was showing positive results and was working.

I do know the statistics (Im a part time demographer) and the Ethiopian community in LA is about the same size as Dallas. Its smaller than DC, Minneapolis, Seattle, and Atlanta.

You can look at how many immigrants from any particular county come to any particular metro area in the link below. Use supplementary table number 2. Below were how many came from Ethiopia in 2017. Ill also go ahead and cut off the argument that using only one year of stats is not conclusive. Its true, it isn't. However the scope of the data hasn't changed since 2003 as far as Ethiopians and these cities are concerned (with the exception of Denver and Las Vegas who's Ethiopian immigration is relatively new). I might underscore something else. Census data (like the figures above) are estimates so there is about a 5% margin of error. The data below is not an estimate. Its firm data down to the person:

DC: 2,791
Minneapolis: 1,540
Seattle: 1,128
Atlanta: 779
Dallas: 698
Denver: 656
Las Vegas: 550
Columbus, OH: 359
Boston: 326
Los Angeles: 273
Houston: 269
San Francisco: 267

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statist ... rbook/2017

DCAYOW · Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:55 pm

Maybe Royal Air Maroc can give LAX a 787 flught to CMN. Totally doable payload range wise. Then LAX would truly be in the six continents club. Only makes sense if there are good onward Africa connections from CMN.

iadadd · Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:23 pm

I think ET wants to keep LAX, but DUB is perhaps the wrong stop for them. I know its VFR, but SoCal does have a reasonable large Ethiopian community and LAX is a huge market overall. I know many have said that LAX-ADD has a lot of competition, but to be fair most of those connections are far from seamless. I'll provide examples below:

LAX-DXB-ADD (EK) is a 15 hour layover in Dubai

LAX-IST-ADD (TK) is essentially impossible during Summer season due to a 40 minute layover in IST

LAX-FRA-ADD (LH) is impossible due to ADD flight leaving before LAX arrives. However, this will finally become decent with a schedule change in October when FRA-ADD goes nonstop and leaves at 2pm resulting in a 3 hour layover in FRA

LAX-DOH-ADD (QR) is possible, but a midnight arrival in ADD is less than desirable

LAX-IAD-ADD (UA/ET) is decent on the eastbound, but westbound sucks when you have to clear customs and baggage reclaim upon arrival at Dulles is cumbersome

Therefore, in simple terms of convenience, the LAX-DUB-ADD is the most efficient way to get from the U.S. West Coast to East Africa

iadadd · Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:27 pm

I've wondered if a ADD-MXP-LAX flight would work

or potentially LAX-ADD nonstop on the 789 and the obvious DUB tech stop on the way back. This would t

berari · Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:00 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
Why/how did they lose local traffic rights on DUB - LAX? Irish protectionism, to support EI who since ET started DUB - LAX, have re-started DUB - LAX? Or, was it a case of them not wanting local traffic on DUB - LAX, and wanting to allow more space for Africa - LAX traffic?

On DUB, why are they still extending ADD - MAD to DUB, if DUB retains the non-stop ADD - DUB flight, the traffic rights of which I assume are unaffected by the loss of DUB - LAX traffic rights?

Cheers,

C.

It could be any of those reasons. I do recall however that the Irish were welcoming and very happy with ET's entry including the 5th freedom. Likely couldn't compete with EI. I still wonder if ET will make LAX work, it's a very long flight with many better alternatives for passengers.

hynithuchi wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
Why/how did they lose local traffic rights on DUB - LAX? Irish protectionism, to support EI who since ET started DUB - LAX, have re-started DUB - LAX? Or, was it a case of them not wanting local traffic on DUB - LAX, and wanting to allow more space for Africa - LAX traffic?

On DUB, why are they still extending ADD - MAD to DUB, if DUB retains the non-stop ADD - DUB flight, the traffic rights of which I assume are unaffected by the loss of DUB - LAX traffic rights?

Cheers,

C.

Are those flights via MAD operating the same day ? It really wouldn't make much sense then, but honestly, the way ET keeps changing their flights around ( particularly to MAD ), I'm convinced we haven't heard the last about their routing and schedule changes.

MAD is an oddball. Can't sustain a dedicated widebody, yet too far for a single aisle aircraft to make it considering all variables.

DCAYOW wrote:
Maybe Royal Air Maroc can give LAX a 787 flught to CMN. Totally doable payload range wise. Then LAX would truly be in the six continents club. Only makes sense if there are good onward Africa connections from CMN.

Are you in the right forum? Irrelevant.

iadadd wrote:
Therefore, in simple terms of convenience, the LAX-DUB-ADD is the most efficient way to get from the U.S. West Coast to East Africa

Convenient yes, but do the numbers make sense for the airline. DUB is still the right spot for a tech stop given great circle distance.

iadadd wrote:
I've wondered if a ADD-MXP-LAX flight would work

or potentially LAX-ADD nonstop on the 789 and the obvious DUB tech stop on the way back. This would t

In terms of tech stop, ET can make any European city that is not slot restricted work. You may recall it moved its tech stops from FCO to DUB given the latter's more attractive offerings.

berari · Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:27 am

So the flight remains via DUB, for now. No new/different stops announced or visible in schedule.

behramjee · Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:24 am

ADD LOS LAX would be a disaster for ET.

However if they replaced it with ADD LOS IAH then it will perform very well.

If they want to fly to LAX then they should look at flying a Star hub which has no nonstop service and code share in turn with the local carrier. The only routing I can think of here is 3wk ADD BRU LAX. FYI BRU LAX had 35,000 pax p2p in 2017.

MaverickM11 · Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:27 pm

Anyone find out why they dropped the local traffic rights on DUBLAX? That was about half the volume on the plane...

berari · Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:06 am

MaverickM11 wrote:
Anyone find out why they dropped the local traffic rights on DUBLAX? That was about half the volume on the plane...

Still no word. Knowing ET and especially the marketing they have done on this route, I suspect it's a loss of traffic rights. If ADD-LAX traffic had warranted more seats, they would have added frequency without 5th freedom traffic. I would not be surprised if they end up dropping LAX altogether for I doubt it can be sustained.

LAXintl · Tue Oct 30, 2018 8:29 pm

Effective December 17th flight will operate via Lome Togo - 3x weekly.

Not the most efficient routing - over 1,100 miles additional which certainly add to the routes cost.

LAXintl · Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:01 pm

With routing via Lome entire LAX schedule has been updated. New times/day

MoWeSa
ET504 ADD-LFW 1110-1225
ET504 LFW-LAX 1225-1935

MoWeSa
ET505 LAX-LFW 2135-1935+1
ET505 LFW-ADD 2050+1-0540+2

janders · Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:12 pm

Lome is certainly far off any great circle routing between LA and ADD. Something else in Europe would have been much more logical geography wise.

Can't imagine the added many hours of flying helping the business case to sustain LA long term.

MaverickM11 · Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:25 pm

Ha...well the DUBLAX local market is 600x bigger than LAXLFW but I suppose this is a strategic investment....that should pay of in 4-5 decades. :duck:

MAH4546 · Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:32 pm

Lome is a hub for Asky Airlines, 40% owned by ET, so guessing they are focusing on connecting traffic via Lome to other points. ET has been flying Lome-Newark for a while now.

evanb · Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:33 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Lome is a hub for Asky Airlines, 40% owned by ET, so guessing they are focusing on connecting traffic via Lome to other points. ET has been flying Lome-Newark for a while now.

And with a 1935 arrival from LA in Lome it doesn't make a single connection without overnighting in Lome.

seabosdca · Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:04 pm

evanb wrote:
And with a 1935 arrival from LA in Lome it doesn't make a single connection without overnighting in Lome.

Ouch, that's not going to work very well. And the flight is going to be quite expensive to run given the distance. I give this routing two months, max, before either the schedule changes to allow more connections or LAX is dropped.

simpv · Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:49 am

A surprising add, but a cool route.
How does ET do on the EWR-LFW route? Is it for connections, or people continuing to ADD?
I can't see this route lasting either--seems to have no advantage of local O&D, connecting traffic at LAX or LFW, or a more efficient routing.

iadadd · Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:25 pm

LAX-LFW-ADD is just a ridiculous routing, I really wonder who at ET Management thought this would be a great routing. Clearly, ET is having an issue with LAX, but having a LFW stop is not the way to fix things. They've added roughly 2 more hours to a trip that's already quite long. Plus, the demand between Lome (or West Africa in general) to LAX is quite pitiful.

Perhaps it's time to drop LAX because this is just stupid. It will be faster to travel LAX-ADD via a connection, than to take this flight...

evanb · Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:17 pm

I think everyone overstates ET's strategic nuance. They have a staggering low cost structure due to very low labour costs, very low airport costs in Addis and fairly cheap cost of capital. They have a much lower unit cost between Africa and Europe, North America and Asia than all of their competition and thus can take risks and experiment to an extent that other carriers can't. That explains a lot of the chopping and changing we see particularly on their European routes. I wouldn't be surprised to see more changes in the US, including LAX, in a few months time.

simpv · Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:45 pm

evanb wrote:
I think everyone overstates ET's strategic nuance. They have a staggering low cost structure due to very low labour costs, very low airport costs in Addis and fairly cheap cost of capital. They have a much lower unit cost between Africa and Europe, North America and Asia than all of their competition and thus can take risks and experiment to an extent that other carriers can't. That explains a lot of the chopping and changing we see particularly on their European routes. I wouldn't be surprised to see more changes in the US, including LAX, in a few months time.

Completely agree that ET has these advantages. In fact, their lack of paying dividends and preferential rates on loans probably makes them more subsidized than any ME3. But the fundamentals on an LAX-LFW are pretty dismal. A secondary hub at DSS, ACC, or LOS would seem to be slightly better. Unless LFW has plans of being the DXB for Africa.

evanb · Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:52 pm

simpv wrote:
Completely agree that ET has these advantages. In fact, their lack of paying dividends and preferential rates on loans probably makes them more subsidized than any ME3. But the fundamentals on an LAX-LFW are pretty dismal. A secondary hub at DSS, ACC, or LOS would seem to be slightly better. Unless LFW has plans of being the DXB for Africa.

Sure, they're paying much lower interest rates on aircraft financing than even the Ethiopian government is borrowing money, but it's not lower than the interest rates than European, American or ME3 carriers are paying, and thus they don't have cost advantage in that area.

caliboy93 · Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:49 pm

LAX-LHR is so much bigger than LAX-LFW. But regardless, LAX has joined the 6 continent club!

iadadd · Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:39 pm

Well, I guess it's time to re-name the title of this thread to something along the lines of "ET replaces DUB with LFW on LAX"

LAXdude1023 · Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:53 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Lome is a hub for Asky Airlines, 40% owned by ET, so guessing they are focusing on connecting traffic via Lome to other points. ET has been flying Lome-Newark for a while now.

NYC is home to a massive foreign born West African community. LA isnt. I doubt there is much business traffic either.

MAH4546 · Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:30 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Lome is a hub for Asky Airlines, 40% owned by ET, so guessing they are focusing on connecting traffic via Lome to other points. ET has been flying Lome-Newark for a while now.

NYC is home to a massive foreign born West African community. LA isnt. I doubt there is much business traffic either.

There probably isn’t but it’s LA. Filling the plane is the least of ET’s worries here. It’ll fill.

Not saying it’s a smart idea, just that you won’t have a problem filling it.

soups · Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:42 pm

There is no connections from LAX to anywhere in west Africa via LFW without a long layover.
ET can easily fill the LAX-ADD with transit to JNB, SEZ, somalia and virtually anywhere in southern africa!
Yeah its a longer flight but £€¥ counts for a lot of people!

caliboy93 · Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:12 pm

Would MXP or FCO have been a better 5th freedom option, given the relatively strong traffic between Italy and Ethiopia?

evanb · Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:28 pm

soups wrote:
ET can easily fill the LAX-ADD with transit to JNB, SEZ, somalia and virtually anywhere in southern africa!
Yeah its a longer flight but £€¥ counts for a lot of people!

Agreed, and certain competitors like SA, AF, KL, BA, DL, etc are just not going to fight for these passengers.

LAXintl · Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:01 am

O&D between Lome and LAX is 1.3 pax per day per with an average fare of $705 per Route Online insight report. :eyepopping:

https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... b-sfo-bcn/

soups · Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:54 pm

They probanly relying on connections however coming back from LAX, not a single connection is available!

My parents live in Ghana and looking to fly to LAX (they might drive to LFW) and use ET as quicker then connecting via Europe

LAXintl · Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:16 pm

The dumb route did not last long.
Looks like LAX will get axe entirely as LFW route shifts to IAH instead.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/4127682

janders · Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:43 pm

Wow I am in shock. :eyepopping:

... not

Yeah, it was a dumb, out of the way route to try :shakehead:

Too bad for the large Ethiopian diaspora in LA though.

LAXintl · Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:00 pm

Per airlineroute.net, LAX availability zero'd after Feb 16th.

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