NRT & HND 2020 Slot Increase Potential New Destinations by JL & NH

master14225 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:59 am

Since we all know that the Japanese government will increase the number of slots at both HND and NRT in preperation of the 2020 olympic games, both NH and JL said their route network would expand significantly from both airports than what it currently is today. I was just curious as to what new destinations both airlines could add as I couldn't find any forum or article on potential new routes or adding extra frequencies.

North America for example, I was thinking that NH and JL should add YYZ because we know there is a demand for those wanting to fly to Japan and connect to rest of Asia on an asian airline than picking AC all the time. NH for example would go great with AC and JL would go great with WS. There is no reason that both NH and JL can't serve YYZ but can serve every other big city in Canada and USA other than limited slots at HND and NRT. Both can be flown on a 787 too and another route for NH I was also thinking was DEN with also a 787.

teme82 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:26 am

I would see either AY or JL to move their HEL flight(s) to HND. Currently they have max 3 daily NRT flights.

aviationaware · Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:30 am

I am going to throw Miami in here to get it out of the way. And yes, this was sarcasm.

Bogof7478 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:55 am

DTW on the 747-8

jfk777 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:32 am

JAL flying from Haneda to Chicago ORD.

kavok · Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:44 pm

There will only be so many slots that can be added to HND globally, and when you take that number and aggregate it further to HND-USA slots, HND-EU slots, HND-Canada slots, etc. ... it becomes apparent that there will only be a handful of additional new slots available to each. Complicating it further, each slot pair awarded to HND-Canada (for example) is one less slot pair that could be awarded to HND-Europe or HND-USA.

So, we will not only see competition between which new destinations get added, but competition between how many slots get awarded between each country/EU. And while there is probably value to NH in expanding Canada because of the alliance, JL would likely prefer to see less Canada slot adds and more UK/USA slot adds.

Speedalive · Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:06 pm

Could we see AC taking advantage of the extra slots and moving their YVR/YUL flights to HND to coincide with their YYZ flight, or does NRT work well for them?

LAXintl · Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:22 pm

For the US, at best will only get a handful of flights.

Many other nations have been promised and are on waiting list to enter HND for their national carries also such as Finland, Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, UAE plus wider access for ASEAN block.

Carpethead · Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:33 pm

Technically, there is nothing preventing most carriers to add or inaugurate service to NRT.
HND is another matter.

EddieDude · Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:36 pm

Any chance NH might move its MEX service from NRT to HND? Would the Mexico-Japan bilateral have to be amended for this to happen?

master14225 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:09 pm

My concern is why should NH ignore YYZ and let only AC offer only one daily flight to HND. NRT is seasonal out of YYZ so NH can perfectly add a daily flight with a 787 to YYZ. YYZ is not a secondary market like DEN, it's a mega hub and bigger than IAD and IAH, if those two places can get service by both NH and UA, YYZ for sure also deserves a second choice like NH and not have a AC monopoly... There is a market where people prefer asian airlines over north american ones and the NRT/HND to YYZ route has bigger demand than NRT-IAD/IAH.

nascar1 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:30 pm

They should launch BCN. Currently is the biggest unserved route from BCN with almost 180000 indirect passengers.

sand26391 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:55 pm

So recently I asked BIAL (BLR Airport in South India) about possibility of Tokyo-BLR flight & this is the response i got from them(BIAL) directly....

Blimpie · Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:04 pm

I don't expect to see a lot of slots open, and expected little to no new flights to/from Japan/US, but that aside, I'd sure like to see JAL enter the DC market, as I prefer JAL over ANA out of WAS

janders · Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:20 pm

master14225 wrote:
My concern is why should NH ignore YYZ and let only AC offer only one daily flight to HND. NRT is seasonal out of YYZ so NH can perfectly add a daily flight with a 787 to YYZ. YYZ is not a secondary market like DEN, it's a mega hub and bigger than IAD and IAH, if those two places can get service by both NH and UA, YYZ for sure also deserves a second choice like NH and not have a AC monopoly... There is a market where people prefer asian airlines over north american ones and the NRT/HND to YYZ route has bigger demand than NRT-IAD/IAH.

Japanese carriers (NH in this case) is using the single HND Canada frequency to YVR. Actually quite good use between Star partners splitting up YVR and YYZ service.

I suspect any future HND slot to Canada would be awarded to JAL on the Japanese side, so maybe JAL will look at serving YYZ.

master14225 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:22 pm

How about NH serving YYZ through NRT slots? AC can keep their route at HND and let NH fly their YYZ route out of NRT.

janders wrote:
master14225 wrote:
My concern is why should NH ignore YYZ and let only AC offer only one daily flight to HND. NRT is seasonal out of YYZ so NH can perfectly add a daily flight with a 787 to YYZ. YYZ is not a secondary market like DEN, it's a mega hub and bigger than IAD and IAH, if those two places can get service by both NH and UA, YYZ for sure also deserves a second choice like NH and not have a AC monopoly... There is a market where people prefer asian airlines over north american ones and the NRT/HND to YYZ route has bigger demand than NRT-IAD/IAH.

Japanese carriers (NH in this case) is using the single HND Canada frequency to YVR. Actually quite good use between Star partners splitting up YVR and YYZ service.

I suspect any future HND slot to Canada would be awarded to JAL on the Japanese side, so maybe JAL will look at serving YYZ.

LAXintl · Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:31 pm

EddieDude wrote:
Any chance NH might move its MEX service from NRT to HND? Would the Mexico-Japan bilateral have to be amended for this to happen?

Yes, and Mexican carriers would be awarded the equivalent slots at HND. But frankly Mexico is not a high priority for Japanese airlines nor government, so very unlikely to happen.

master14225 wrote:
My concern is why should NH ignore YYZ and let only AC offer only one daily flight to HND. NRT is seasonal out of YYZ so NH can perfectly add a daily flight with a 787 to YYZ. YYZ is not a secondary market like DEN, it's a mega hub and bigger than IAD and IAH, if those two places can get service by both NH and UA, YYZ for sure also deserves a second choice like NH and not have a AC monopoly... There is a market where people prefer asian airlines over north american ones and the NRT/HND to YYZ route has bigger demand than NRT-IAD/IAH.

As explained previously ANA is not ignoring YYZ. Its using its single HND-Canada slot to YVR and Star partner AC takes the YYZ route.
I also doubt NH would be awarded any additional HND-Canada slots to use before JAL gets one.

nascar1 wrote:
They should launch BCN. Currently is the biggest unserved route from BCN with almost 180000 indirect passengers.

They won't waste a HND slot to BCN. Route could be flown today from NRT if it was so compelling. I doubt Spain will gain access to HND when larger markets like Italy, Netherlands, Finland, Turkey, etc still waiting to get their slot authority.

YangFeng · Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:47 pm

Is there a known waiting list of some sort of airlines wanting to switch from NRT to HND? I'm particularly interested if European carriers that I often use personally have a decent chance of switching, like AY or LX.

mercure1 · Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:53 pm

YangFeng wrote:
Is there a known waiting list of some sort of airlines wanting to switch from NRT to HND? I'm particularly interested if European carriers that I often use personally have a decent chance of switching, like AY or LX.

Its not airlines perse, its more like nations. Many European nations are hoping to gain access during further subsequent slot awards. First time around Japan handed slots to the big players like UK, France, Germany.

Obviously, future slots awards will be driven to a degree by the interest of Japanese airlines as slots are awarded on 1 for 1 basis with the foreign nation, so they most likely will be markets that Japanese carriers already serve, or have interest in serving from HND.

nomorerjs · Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:39 am

When new slots are available:

AA: DFW-HND
JL: ORD-HND

Other than that who knows. I’m sure our friend will pedict his favorite airport is a lock!

a19901213 · Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:41 am

From my understanding these two Japanese carriers will shift major cities that are yet served by HND to HND first. (ORD. Canada, SYD for JAL and so on)

jfk777 · Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:40 am

Virgin Atlantic back to Tokyo via Haneda daily to London Heathrow.

AASAP777 · Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:04 am

nomorerjs wrote:
When new slots are available:

AA: DFW-HND
JL: ORD-HND

Other than that who knows. I’m sure our friend will pedict his favorite airport is a lock!

Totally feasible. Maybe AA moves the morning departure from NRT to HND for a full day of connections in DFW.

GSP psgr · Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:21 am

nomorerjs wrote:
When new slots are available:

AA: DFW-HND
JL: ORD-HND

Other than that who knows. I’m sure our friend will pedict his favorite airport is a lock!

I'd also guess UA EWR-HND.

SFOtoORD · Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:50 am

nomorerjs wrote:
When new slots are available:

AA: DFW-HND
JL: ORD-HND

Other than that who knows. I’m sure our friend will pedict his favorite airport is a lock!

I think DL will propose they get all of them as they don’t have a Japan partner.

Pcoder · Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:23 am

a19901213 wrote:
From my understanding these two Japanese carriers will shift major cities that are yet served by HND to HND first. (ORD. Canada, SYD for JAL and so on)

I'd imagine JAL might move the Melbourne flight as a point of difference to ANA and QF. Also Melbourne having no curfew might help with HNDs available slots.

teme82 · Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:00 am

YangFeng wrote:
Is there a known waiting list of some sort of airlines wanting to switch from NRT to HND? I'm particularly interested if European carriers that I often use personally have a decent chance of switching, like AY or LX.

AY is flying some days double daily to NRT and I would say that they want the HND slot ASAP so they could move one of the NRT flights to there. What I've heard the NRT flights JL and AY are always rather full so there is demand and the AY HEL hub strategy works well on both of them.

mandyhaslott · Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:35 am

jfk777 wrote:
Virgin Atlantic back to Tokyo via Haneda daily to London Heathrow.

You beat me to it I'm really hoping they do.

I've mentioned on another thread - the lack of competition on EUR-JPN is concerning. Even more worrying is the JVs aren't being unwound by the competition authorities... Where are they? Getting their pockets lined?!

kavok · Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:26 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
When new slots are available:

AA: DFW-HND
JL: ORD-HND

Other than that who knows. I’m sure our friend will pedict his favorite airport is a lock!

I think DL will propose they get all of them as they don’t have a Japan partner.

I am sure DL will. The power though is with the Japanese airlines, and how many additional slots they convince should be awarded between HND-USA, or HND-anywhere globally.

And while this is a global topic, the OP was talking about JL and NH. But for the US centric posters, the first question on this topic really should be how many additional slots to the Japanese carriers want to the USA. And once you have that number, then you can debate how many DL will get.

BreezyIAH · Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:24 am

DFW
ORD
ATL
EWR
IAD
IAH
More Hawaii flights
Perhaps DL or UA restart former Asian NRT destinations?
GUM?
YYZ for sure
DEN
SEA
More SFO?
SAN?
LAS?
BOS?

UA857 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:54 am

Could we see DL launch ATL-HND and UA launch ORD-HND?

c933103 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:52 am

It would be more of interest for JL and NH to add more HND-domestic/HND-Asia flight than long haul flights, I think.
And I think JAL most definitely would move their HNL flights to HND

QuawerAir · Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:09 pm

teme82 wrote:
YangFeng wrote:
Is there a known waiting list of some sort of airlines wanting to switch from NRT to HND? I'm particularly interested if European carriers that I often use personally have a decent chance of switching, like AY or LX.

AY is flying some days double daily to NRT and I would say that they want the HND slot ASAP so they could move one of the NRT flights to there. What I've heard the NRT flights JL and AY are always rather full so there is demand and the AY HEL hub strategy works well on both of them.

I'm not sure whether AY wants to move one of the NRT flights to HND, but they indeed are willing to serve HND. The flights to NRT from HEL have been pretty full: last year the passenger load factor was 90.5% and this year 90.9% (Jan-Aug 2018). Additionally, the traffic is increasing rather rapidly. The statistics (Eurostat) shows that this year there have been 62,930 passengers more on the HEL-NRT route than last year. So, it seems that the passenger volume on the route is going to be over 400,000, which is incredible as only in 2016 the number was around 280,000.

nomorerjs · Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:36 pm

UA857 wrote:
Could we see DL launch ATL-HND and UA launch ORD-HND?

It depends on how many slots are available. NH already does ORD-HND so would UA add this? I think DL will look for ATL and DTW, AA for DFW.

ibthebigd · Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:03 pm

IND has a lot if money set aside for an Asia flight. Tokyo would be the most logical city.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

kavok · Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:27 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
IND has a lot if money set aside for an Asia flight. Tokyo would be the most logical city.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Money talks, but it won’t talk that much given how limited the HND slots. Further, if the flight is essentially paid for by subsidies, there is less value in using a highly prized HND slot when an airline could make money on IND from NRT.

If just four USA-HND slots are made available, my guess would be:
1&2 JL-LAX. NH-IAD.
3&4 AA-DFW. DL-ATL
If six (or eight) were available, things get interesting:
5&6 JL-SEA and one of UA-EWR or DL-SEA
7&8- NH-SFO/EWR. And whichever of DL/UA didn’t get selected for #5/6

stylo777 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:58 pm

LH Group operations are split between both; however, if granted, all would probably move to HND. Currently, LH has FRA & MUC at HND and LX & OS at NRT.

TC957 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:31 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Virgin Atlantic back to Tokyo via Haneda daily to London Heathrow.

I wish, but I guess that will only happen if DL says so.
However, it will be interesting to see if Norwegian get Russian overfly rights and may be tempted to be the second UK carrier to Tokyo in place of VS.

lhrsfosyd · Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:30 pm

All three flights between HEL and NRT depart around the same time so perhaps they could try late night departures instead.

HEL 2350 HND 1510+1
HND 0200 HEL 0600

teme82 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:49 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
All three flights between HEL and NRT depart around the same time so perhaps they could try late night departures instead.

HEL 2350 HND 1510+1
HND 0200 HEL 0600

AY is going to test similar schedule on KIX.. I would say it would work for NRT. They would have the plane configures high Business config.

TC957 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:41 pm

Unlike HND, NRT has a night ban, so there won't be any 0200 departure there !

_AA_777_MAN · Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:20 pm

Would JL shift NRT-ORD 77W to HND-ORD? Or fly 2x daily Tokyo-Chicago like NH does. 1x daily HND-ORD 77W and 1x daily NRT-ORD 77W.

rbavfan · Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:14 pm

aviationaware wrote:
I am going to throw Miami in here to get it out of the way. And yes, this was sarcasm.

LMAO

J343 · Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:29 pm

JL starting HND - MNL daily starting 2019 leaving HND at midnight I believe.

nomorerjs · Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:37 pm

_AA_777_MAN wrote:
Would JL shift NRT-ORD 77W to HND-ORD? Or fly 2x daily Tokyo-Chicago like NH does. 1x daily HND-ORD 77W and 1x daily NRT-ORD 77W.

JL is picking up 4 of AAs 7 weekly ORD-NRT flights as AA guts ORD-Asia. I wouldn’t be surprised if JL does 1x daily each from ORD-NRT and HND and AA drops their pathetic 3x weekly service.

Tabito · Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:45 am

ANA announces HND-VIE from February 17, 2019.

NH205 HND 01:55 - VIE 06:00 Daily 787-9
NH206 VIE 11:50 - HND 06:55+1 Daily 787-9

https://www.ana.co.jp/group/en/pr/201810/20181015-1.html

fessor · Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:19 am

what about slots to Sweden, Denmark and Norway, then they could make a flight CPH-HND daily, and then a 7 weekly OSL/ARN-NRT

oskarclare · Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:24 am

Would think BNE would be added by most likely NH but maybe JL. Whoever gets in first, both wouldn't survive

STT757 · Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:18 am

nomorerjs wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Could we see DL launch ATL-HND and UA launch ORD-HND?

It depends on how many slots are available. NH already does ORD-HND so would UA add this? I think DL will look for ATL and DTW, AA for DFW.

I think UA would want EWR-HND and LAX-HND.

kavok · Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:33 pm

STT757 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Could we see DL launch ATL-HND and UA launch ORD-HND?

It depends on how many slots are available. NH already does ORD-HND so would UA add this? I think DL will look for ATL and DTW, AA for DFW.

I think UA would want EWR-HND and LAX-HND.

I agree, though I can’t see UA getting more than 1 slot. Frankly, I think it might be a struggle just to get that one. If 2 slots are available to US carriers, I think UA gets left out (with the winners being AA to DFW and DL as the other).

There would likely need to be at least 3, and possibly 4 slots made available to US carriers for UA to get one slot. With 4 slots, UA almost assuridly gets one.

But with just 3 slots, Delta will be able to make a strong case that they deserve 2 of the 3 slots. Reasons: 1)to help balance the JV/alliance imbalance, and 2) DL’s bid will include markets that don’t have HND service (SEA, DTW or ATL), whereas UAs bid of NYC/LAX are to markets that already have 2 carriers on the route.

Not saying DL would win the argument, but again I think there would need to be at least 4 slots before UA could feel safe in getting one.

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