In the last few years, as Ireland has recovered from the terrible economic downturn, Dublin has seen a raft of new airlines and routes, both short and long haul. Destinations such as Hong Kong, Addis Ababa, Montreal, Seattle, Vancouver and Beijing have all appeared (some seasonally) with airlines such as ET & CX joining a growing list of carriers.

Already 2019 promises more of the same. EI are launching MSP & YUL, WS to YYC, AA to DFW, TP to LIS & to SU to SVO. Added to this are capacity & frequency growth from a number of well established airlines in Dublin.

2018 will be the busiest year in the airports history, built on similar record breaking years in 2016 & 2017. My question is, can this growth continue & if so, where to next? (And let’s keep it realistic, no talk of QF to SYD or SA to JNB)

It can be maintained and grown however the DAA need to pull the thumb out and realize that the infrastructure needs significant investment, terminals need expanding and serious thought needs to go to a midfield complex if it’s home carrier expects to benefit from becoming a transit carrier. There are just too many airfield delays right now and it will only get worse if something is not done immediately. It will be chaos by the time the new runway opens.

Are there any estimated dates for another runway? I'm excited about SVO and surprised that this route was pretty much dead for decades (except rare and seasonal S7). There are good few pictures with old Aeroflot Tu-134 in DUB from the early 90-s if I remember.

My feeling is that DUB is being used more and more as a 'relief' hub for London and a few of the UK regions, at least for North America. And probably IAG will likely want to invest in this capacity.
So, yes, I think that this growth (maybe not at this rate) is sustainable, at least as long as the Irish economy is thriving. And -to this effect- Brexit can only strengthen DUB's position as an easy and effective EU gateway for the British Isles.

All bubbles burst. That is why they are bubbles.

Remember when the ME3 were going to take over the world?

Aviation is particularly effected by outside conditions.

So when you have a small city, in a small country with outsized growth...watch out as a correction is coming. Just law of averages.

Yes I agree, all bubbles burst some time although I would think DUB will be rather a soft landing, considering the huge Irish diaspora across the Atlantic and in Australia. But traffic in and out of Ireland, and in particular to Europe, seems to be very price sensitive and and I can see environmental taxes being introduced at some stage. LCC, therefore FR, would probably suffer most and this could strongly affect Irish airports. I know, in this forum we all talk about nothing else but growth but whether we like it or not, the environmental factor will have to be considered sooner or later and affect air traffic in general.

I don't really agree that DUB's growth is a bubble; the traffic growth has not been sudden; there was a dip in 2007-2009, with our recession, but the country has bounced back. I would say that DUB (and Ireland generally) is vulnerable to economic downturns, but that doesn't necessarily mean that what is happening now is a bubble. There was always a need for a direct route to Asia, which CX has tapped into, likewise with a ME link, though - like many other European destinations - I don't think we need (or can sustain) three.

I think that there is plenty of potential left for further North American routes and the development of a US hub. I would definitely agree with Tonystan, that the DAA needs to invest in further infrastructure; last month we were promised that further plans for the development of DUB would be revealed this month, so looking forward to these.

As to the new runway, I think the plan is for it to be open in 2021-22.

Bubble should burst soon. Way too much capacity for a relatively small market.

They said this every year about KEF and it grew and grew and everyone seems to be coexisting rather well. Praying the bubble doesn't burst before Detroit get's added.

jfklganyc wrote:

All bubbles burst. That is why they are bubbles.

Remember when the ME3 were going to take over the world?

Aviation is particularly effected by outside conditions.

So when you have a small city, in a small country with outsized growth...watch out as a correction is coming. Just law of averages.

The ME3 would have kept going if it hadn't been for the polices put in place by our current administration to protect the US3 and their JV partners to make the ME3 a less attractive option.

klm617 wrote:

They said this every year about KEF and it grew and grew and everyone seems to be coexisting rather well. Praying the bubble doesn't burst before Detroit get's added.

I think KEF is a bit different than DUB. I mean in Iceland you have basically two airlines getting people to transfer there. In Dublin there are far more carriers relying on local demand.

PerfectGriffin wrote:

Bubble should burst soon. Way too much capacity for a relatively small market.

That capacity is being very easily filled. The average load factor at DUB is among the highest of the larger European airports. CX for example had an 83% load factor in its very first month of operations. When was the last time a long haul route out of DUB was cut? You need to go way back to the days of the recession. (One exception is AA to JFK - which they just replaced with DFW).

This is an island and the wprld’s most globally open economy. We need to travel.

DUB has been growing as all the destinations which it is adding do too. Aviation industry has grown tones due to the oil prices until now, and the development of many non-stop routes benefited from efficient-new planes.

The interesting point here to me is the huge potential which DUB airport yet misses in terms of connectivity with Ryanair flights to Europe. Why no big airline wants to transfer pax to/from them?

Blerg wrote:

klm617 wrote:

They said this every year about KEF and it grew and grew and everyone seems to be coexisting rather well. Praying the bubble doesn't burst before Detroit get's added.

I think KEF is a bit different than DUB. I mean in Iceland you have basically two airlines getting people to transfer there. In Dublin there are far more carriers relying on local demand.

In KEF you have 2 airlines that do the transfer business and O&D and additional 29 airlines doing O&D only.

klm617 wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

All bubbles burst. That is why they are bubbles.

Remember when the ME3 were going to take over the world?

Aviation is particularly effected by outside conditions.

So when you have a small city, in a small country with outsized growth...watch out as a correction is coming. Just law of averages.

The ME3 would have kept going if it hadn't been for the polices put in place by our current administration to protect the US3 and their JV partners to make the ME3 a less attractive option.

Aviation is very subject to outside forces.

Precisely why bubbles burst

a350lover wrote:

The interesting point here to me is the huge potential which DUB airport yet misses in terms of connectivity with Ryanair flights to Europe. Why no big airline wants to transfer pax to/from them?

They don't need to interline. There is no APD in Ireland, so people can self-transfer. For example many people self-transfer between Ryanair and the Norwegian TATL flights out of Dublin.

I believe one of the reasons Dublin works is the fact that the UK has APD and Ireland doesn't. Price-sensitive air travelers from the UK first fly to Dublin. That flight is subject to APD, but only for short haul which isn't much. Then they self-transfer to a long-haul flight out of there APD-free. Dublin is well-connected to just about every airport in the UK. Should the UK abolish the APD, this will affect Dublin as there would be no reason to self-transfer there anymore.

PerfectGriffin wrote:

Bubble should burst soon. Way too much capacity for a relatively small market.

Don't underestimate the size of that market. Not only does Dublin generate quite some O/D traffic, it's also a huge transfer airport. A gateway between TATL flights to America on one side and flights into Europe on the other. You'd be surprised how many people transfer in Dublin, certainly when taking self-transfers into account.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

a350lover wrote:

The interesting point here to me is the huge potential which DUB airport yet misses in terms of connectivity with Ryanair flights to Europe. Why no big airline wants to transfer pax to/from them?

They don't need to interline. There is no APD in Ireland, so people can self-transfer. For example many people self-transfer between Ryanair and the Norwegian TATL flights out of Dublin.

I believe one of the reasons Dublin works is the fact that the UK has APD and Ireland doesn't. Price-sensitive air travelers from the UK first fly to Dublin. That flight is subject to APD, but only for short haul which isn't much. Then they self-transfer to a long-haul flight out of there APD-free. Dublin is well-connected to just about every airport in the UK. Should the UK abolish the APD, this will affect Dublin as there would be no reason to self-transfer there anymore.

DUB has more flights to provincial UK destinations than London. Ryanair and Aer Lingus are currently putting in place the infrastructure to allow interlining to take place in DUB, providing that pax have a minimum 3 hour transfer time between flights.

The biggest threat to DUB’s growth is infrastructure. The parallel runway will be fine and dandy when it opens in 3 years but DUB has the worst taxiway layout and most bottlenecks and cul de sacs at piers I’ve ever seen at a major airport, severely delaying ground movements. A midfield terminal 3 with toast racks and taxiways wide enough for opposite direction movements and aprons wide enough for opposite direction simultaneous pushbacks is needed medium term.

PHL is surprising, if only because I expected LH to add a flight to MUC instead of upgauging FRA, and use that new MUC flight to divert some FRA connections to offset the AA cut to FRA.

DUB isn’t a bubble so long as the London airports don’t open a ton of capacity and slots.

A good example is BDL which has DUB because they can justify a LHR slot for a flight so DUB is their one world gateway.

RL757PVD wrote:

DUB isn’t a bubble so long as the London airports don’t open a ton of capacity and slots.

A good example is BDL which has DUB because they can justify a LHR slot for a flight so DUB is their one world gateway.

That is great point. Until a London airport gains a runway for connections, DUB is filling a gap in TATL connections. There is a gap of new flights when people can sleep in transit.

I look forward to growth at DUB with the 2nd runway and more gates.

There is unmet need for hubs in Europe:
DUB across the Atlantic.
WAW & SVO for North Asia
The new IST for mid-East, South Asia, and some of Africa.
Ethiopian for much of Africa.

Growth happens. What other EU3 hub is planning extensive growth?

Lightsaber

One thought, Everyone is accounting for how the global market doubles ever 15 to 20 years?
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... ecast.html

I'm just not seeing the growth at EU airports to support their share.

Lightsaber

It doesn’t look like a bubble ... DUB is in a perfect location just like KEF, DXB or IST ... it just looks like DUBis finally fulfilling its true potential after years of poor strategy ... and of course a HUB mitigates a bubble ... no overreliance on O and D ... Like Tokyo or LAX or poor SYD which are in the wrong location to work properly as Hubs ... DUB will be fine

I think it will just continue to grow with a "no deal" Brexit.

Hi guys, I just have a quick question about Dublin as I am really not familiar with the port but am interested in this topic.

1. Can the current runway system handle Shamrock’s A330s at their MTOW or are is their long haul fleet limited in the range that they can fly.

2. Is there any current plans to extend any of the two current runways? This seems like the most logical step rather than building a whole new runway right now. Looking at a picture of their airport looks like the runways could be expanded without much opposition. Looking at the runway lengths, even at 74m AMSL, 16/34 looks to be too short to effectively handle medium to long haul traffic. Even the other runway 10/28 I don’t think is long enough to handle Supers and 747s, maybe even a Shamrock MTOW A330.

I think Dublin is limited by its runways right now, but could be wrong. Any input is appreciated.

Dublin is becoming a substantial connection hub airport, and this will continue.

klm617 wrote:

They said this every year about KEF and it grew and grew and everyone seems to be coexisting rather well. Praying the bubble doesn't burst before Detroit get's added.

Yet another thread and DTW has to get involved. Can we please have 1 thread that doesn’t become a referendum on DTW?

klm617 wrote:

They said this every year about KEF and it grew and grew and everyone seems to be coexisting rather well. Praying the bubble doesn't burst before Detroit get's added.

Yet another thread and DTW has to get involved. Can we please have 1 thread that doesn’t become a referendum on DTW? You have your own forum that I’m avoiding like the plague.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

a350lover wrote:

The interesting point here to me is the huge potential which DUB airport yet misses in terms of connectivity with Ryanair flights to Europe. Why no big airline wants to transfer pax to/from them?

They don't need to interline. There is no APD in Ireland, so people can self-transfer. For example many people self-transfer between Ryanair and the Norwegian TATL flights out of Dublin.

I believe one of the reasons Dublin works is the fact that the UK has APD and Ireland doesn't. Price-sensitive air travelers from the UK first fly to Dublin. That flight is subject to APD, but only for short haul which isn't much. Then they self-transfer to a long-haul flight out of there APD-free. Dublin is well-connected to just about every airport in the UK. Should the UK abolish the APD, this will affect Dublin as there would be no reason to self-transfer there anymore.

The point of transferring at DUB is using Aer Lingus’ connectivity to transfer to their North American network, that’s not self transfer. You are obsessed with UK APD and self transfers PatrickZ80! Every thread you somehow work it in. If you can afford to fly Cathay to HKG there are better options from the UK than an unprotected self connection out of DUB. If you are risking an FR/ D8 self connection to save money, then you probably, really can’t afford to be going to the US in the first place. But the real growth in long haul has been network carrier Aer Lingus. UK APD is just another part of the ticket price, the cost of doing business.

mjoelnir wrote:

Blerg wrote:

klm617 wrote:

They said this every year about KEF and it grew and grew and everyone seems to be coexisting rather well. Praying the bubble doesn't burst before Detroit get's added.

I think KEF is a bit different than DUB. I mean in Iceland you have basically two airlines getting people to transfer there. In Dublin there are far more carriers relying on local demand.

In KEF you have 2 airlines that do the transfer business and O&D and additional 29 airlines doing O&D only.

I checked online and it shows that most of those 29 foreign airlines are operating on a seasonal basis. How many are actually there the whole year? I suppose the seasonal ones are there to bring tourists, not so much to cater for the needs of the Icelandic travelers.

Odd that so many on A.net seem to want X to end. Maybe they feel inadequate?

Someone is eventually going to bite. There are way too may LCC's / ULCC's on TATL. 7M8's from cities like PVD, SWF operated ny Norwegian just simply don't make sense. While there may be a certain level of demand, it's not sustainable. EI would be a better carrier to mid sized cities in the US. It will be interesting how many of these new entries via DUB are o the scene summer 19.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

a350lover wrote:

The interesting point here to me is the huge potential which DUB airport yet misses in terms of connectivity with Ryanair flights to Europe. Why no big airline wants to transfer pax to/from them?

They don't need to interline. There is no APD in Ireland, so people can self-transfer. For example many people self-transfer between Ryanair and the Norwegian TATL flights out of Dublin.

And if it goes wrong because their inbound FR (or whoever) flight is late or cancelled, they're stranded and out of pocket. "Not our problem! We can book you onto the next flight for a high three figure or four figure EUR sum." will be Norwegian's response. Whether travel insurance will pay out is another thing. It's a 'buyer beware' strategy.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

I believe one of the reasons Dublin works is the fact that the UK has APD and Ireland doesn't. Price-sensitive air travelers from the UK first fly to Dublin. That flight is subject to APD, but only for short haul which isn't much. Then they self-transfer to a long-haul flight out of there APD-free. Dublin is well-connected to just about every airport in the UK. Should the UK abolish the APD, this will affect Dublin as there would be no reason to self-transfer there anymore.

Price-sensitive passengers will fly from wherever is cheapest and that isn't always necessary via DUB.

This UK-based traveller will only really consider transferring via DUB when going TATL if the price is significantly cheaper than via the UK and/or they have the flights at times I need/want to travel. By significant, I mean savings of over £150 upwards. By default, I will always consider direct options first, especially given I live 30-45mins away from MAN which has been expanding its US route portfolio over the last 5 years.

Yes DUB has USBPC, but hopefully that will be coming to MAN soon and that will be one less reason to travel via DUB.

skipness1E wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

a350lover wrote:

The interesting point here to me is the huge potential which DUB airport yet misses in terms of connectivity with Ryanair flights to Europe. Why no big airline wants to transfer pax to/from them?

They don't need to interline. There is no APD in Ireland, so people can self-transfer. For example many people self-transfer between Ryanair and the Norwegian TATL flights out of Dublin.

I believe one of the reasons Dublin works is the fact that the UK has APD and Ireland doesn't. Price-sensitive air travelers from the UK first fly to Dublin. That flight is subject to APD, but only for short haul which isn't much. Then they self-transfer to a long-haul flight out of there APD-free. Dublin is well-connected to just about every airport in the UK. Should the UK abolish the APD, this will affect Dublin as there would be no reason to self-transfer there anymore.

The point of transferring at DUB is using Aer Lingus’ connectivity to transfer to their North American network, that’s not self transfer. You are obsessed with UK APD and self transfers PatrickZ80! Every thread you somehow work it in. If you can afford to fly Cathay to HKG there are better options from the UK than an unprotected self connection out of DUB. If you are risking an FR/ D8 self connection to save money, then you probably, really can’t afford to be going to the US in the first place. But the real growth in long haul has been network carrier Aer Lingus. UK APD is just another part of the ticket price, the cost of doing business.

Indeed. I am no fan of APD, but if it really is such a barrier for airlines and people why has direct flights continued to grow, particularly long-haul from outside London?

EvanWSFO wrote:

Someone is eventually going to bite. There are way too may LCC's / ULCC's on TATL. 7M8's from cities like PVD, SWF operated ny Norwegian just simply don't make sense. While there may be a certain level of demand, it's not sustainable. EI would be a better carrier to mid sized cities in the US. It will be interesting how many of these new entries via DUB are o the scene summer 19.

We're seeing that already with the recent demise of Primera and Norwegian scrapping its TATL routes from EDI and BFS. I know in the case of EDI Norwegian tried to blame APD and a cut that didn't materialise (or hasn't yet at least), but I refuse to believe that was the reason.

Blerg wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

Blerg wrote:

I think KEF is a bit different than DUB. I mean in Iceland you have basically two airlines getting people to transfer there. In Dublin there are far more carriers relying on local demand.

In KEF you have 2 airlines that do the transfer business and O&D and additional 29 airlines doing O&D only.

I checked online and it shows that most of those 29 foreign airlines are operating on a seasonal basis. How many are actually there the whole year? I suppose the seasonal ones are there to bring tourists, not so much to cater for the needs of the Icelandic travelers.

According to my count there are 10 foreign airlines maintaining regularly scheduled flights to Iceland this winter.

masonh2479 wrote:

Hi guys, I just have a quick question about Dublin as I am really not familiar with the port but am interested in this topic.

1. Can the current runway system handle Shamrock’s A330s at their MTOW or are is their long haul fleet limited in the range that they can fly.

2. Is there any current plans to extend any of the two current runways? This seems like the most logical step rather than building a whole new runway right now. Looking at a picture of their airport looks like the runways could be expanded without much opposition. Looking at the runway lengths, even at 74m AMSL, 16/34 looks to be too short to effectively handle medium to long haul traffic. Even the other runway 10/28 I don’t think is long enough to handle Supers and 747s, maybe even a Shamrock MTOW A330.

I think Dublin is limited by its runways right now, but could be wrong. Any input is appreciated.

1. Can the current runway system handle Shamrock’s A330s at their MTOW or are is their long haul fleet limited in the range that they can fly.

I would suggest asking this question in the Tech / Ops section. There are few real A330 /A350 Airbus pilots on this forum (Zeke, longhauler) who might answer with some concrete data. My gut feeling is that in certain situations there can be some limitations, but the question is if it's really impacting Aer Lingus or not. At glance, the DUB 10/28 seems to be plenty for many destinations.

I think Dublin is limited by its runways right now, but could be wrong. Any input is appreciated.

I think this is less of a problem now, then when Aer Lingus had the 747-100. I heard that due to DUB runway limitations they were flying to Shannon for refueling and longer runways. Also, have a look at this thread with similar discussions viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1396189&p=20472725#p20472725

I suspect that DUB might be a significant transfer/distribution point for freight airlines, especially with the limits on expansion at LHR and a few other EC airports, and could get bigger when Brexit goes through in the UK.

masonh2479 wrote:

Hi guys, I just have a quick question about Dublin as I am really not familiar with the port but am interested in this topic.

1. Can the current runway system handle Shamrock’s A330s at their MTOW or are is their long haul fleet limited in the range that they can fly.

2. Is there any current plans to extend any of the two current runways? This seems like the most logical step rather than building a whole new runway right now. Looking at a picture of their airport looks like the runways could be expanded without much opposition. Looking at the runway lengths, even at 74m AMSL, 16/34 looks to be too short to effectively handle medium to long haul traffic. Even the other runway 10/28 I don’t think is long enough to handle Supers and 747s, maybe even a Shamrock MTOW A330.

I think Dublin is limited by its runways right now, but could be wrong. Any input is appreciated.

1. No, they have recently added modified A333 capable of flying SFO/LAX which were restriced to A332s and both types are still MTOW restricted.

2. No, they need more capacity and a longer runway would delover minimal capacity enhancements. It was examined and airlines were against it.

The other bug unknown is what effect Brexit will have on TATL flying. And by that, I mean immigration and customs rules and experiences that may or may not exist at LHR.

Flying NorthAmerica-LHR-Europe might become more challenging if there are weird transfer rules because of Brexit... or it may be easier. The point is we don’t know how that could play out.

We do know DUB is and will be in the EU, so perhaps flying USA-DUB-Europe will be easier because you will only have to do one set of customs/immigration.

Unlike KEF, both Irish airlines are nicely profitable with healthy load factors and yield. Non irish airlines are also adding long haul routes.

Ireland is a holiday and corporate destination these days. The growth looks sustainable.

Pe@rson wrote:

Odd that so many on A.net seem to want X to end. Maybe they feel inadequate?

Some of it is ‘not my airport’ envy.