FA9295 wrote:

routeplanner wrote:

These places will continue to see on again off again carrier participation or Junket Carriers bringing in flights 2 or 3 times a week to places most business travelers don't need to go.

True, but business traffic isn't the only way a route can be successful. Leisure traffic certainly helps as well.

Just to add other examples to these types of routes, PDX-SUN (which was only operated 2x weekly) and EUG-SJC were funded off of grants and once the money ran out, the routes went away too.

The EUG - SJC route had weird scheduling, too, which couldn't have helped, along with the Dash 8. It would be nice if AS had some other routes out of EUG other than connections through PDX and SEA but...those are their connecting points.

AirFiero wrote:

SANFan wrote:

FATFlyer wrote:

San Luis Obispo (SBP) says they may see several new routes next year including SBP-PDX, SBP-SAN, along with SBP-DFW. The first two would likely be AS and the last one AA.

I will say that SBP-SAN is a city-pair that I've been interested in (and pushing) for a couple of years now, prolly since about the time AS began serving the Poly Tech city from SEA. There would be some good commonalities between the two cities -- education and tourism amongst them -- and like SAN-FAT & SAN-MRY, even tho there are no pax traffic figures before the service starts, once added, traffic will come, and I'm sure a daily EMJ r/t would be successful for AAG.

A daily SEA-SBP-SAN r/t seems quite doable.to me. (Just as I feel a SBA-SAN tag-on to either PDX or SEA would be an excellent add for AAG.)

AAG continues to have a desire to expand in and even "own" CA. IMO, that includes as much intra-state travel within the Golden State as they can add. These would be a couple of good but currently un-served markets from SAN that would fit very nicely onto AAG's CA route map. Service could be added quickly since all are already served by the carrier. (And besides, more CA routes that AS wouldn't have to compete with WN on!)

bb

There’s been a lot of discussion about whether AS can complete with WN in California. Maybe this is a great opportunity for AS, one that WN can’t do, which is service to smaller and relatively smaller markets with E-jets?

The big question is whether they can generate the yields needed to cover higher seat costs on regional aircraft.

cschleic wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

routeplanner wrote:

These places will continue to see on again off again carrier participation or Junket Carriers bringing in flights 2 or 3 times a week to places most business travelers don't need to go.

True, but business traffic isn't the only way a route can be successful. Leisure traffic certainly helps as well.

Just to add other examples to these types of routes, PDX-SUN (which was only operated 2x weekly) and EUG-SJC were funded off of grants and once the money ran out, the routes went away too.

The EUG - SJC route had weird scheduling, too, which couldn't have helped, along with the Dash 8. It would be nice if AS had some other routes out of EUG other than connections through PDX and SEA but...those are their connecting points.

EUG-SJC would have worked if AS flew the schedule that optimized connections and when passengers wanted to fly...not when it was convenient for the dispatch schedule, Q400 or not. The AS Q400 between SJC-BOI has been successful.

SFOtoORD wrote:

AirFiero wrote:

SANFan wrote:

I will say that SBP-SAN is a city-pair that I've been interested in (and pushing) for a couple of years now, prolly since about the time AS began serving the Poly Tech city from SEA. There would be some good commonalities between the two cities -- education and tourism amongst them -- and like SAN-FAT & SAN-MRY, even tho there are no pax traffic figures before the service starts, once added, traffic will come, and I'm sure a daily EMJ r/t would be successful for AAG.

A daily SEA-SBP-SAN r/t seems quite doable.to me. (Just as I feel a SBA-SAN tag-on to either PDX or SEA would be an excellent add for AAG.)

AAG continues to have a desire to expand in and even "own" CA. IMO, that includes as much intra-state travel within the Golden State as they can add. These would be a couple of good but currently un-served markets from SAN that would fit very nicely onto AAG's CA route map. Service could be added quickly since all are already served by the carrier. (And besides, more CA routes that AS wouldn't have to compete with WN on!)

bb

There’s been a lot of discussion about whether AS can complete with WN in California. Maybe this is a great opportunity for AS, one that WN can’t do, which is service to smaller and relatively smaller markets with E-jets?

The big question is whether they can generate the yields needed to cover higher seat costs on regional aircraft.

If there is any expansion out of SBP, it would be another (probably seasonal) flight to SEA and maybe PDX. I think AS has bigger fish to fry out of SAN.

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

The CA cities I can see being connected to ORD but DAL or Vegas...?

DAL makes no sense to me. When the Virgin flights from that city were cut (except for CA) the case for a "mini-hub" in Texas evaporated IMO. AAG is trying to make the existing routes from Love Field, to the west coast, work against WN and that's a tough enough battle. I really don't expect to see them branch out in another direction from DAL for a long time, if ever.

LAS seems very unlikely as well. AAG is already cutting LAS-JFK so they seem to have little reason to startup other p-2-p routes from there. We will see LAS-SAN/SJC (and perhaps a couple of other CA routes) next I predict.

Despite what some people on A.net seem to think, I think AAG's primary strategy remains: grow SEA (and to a lesser degree, PDX) with new destinations, like PIT, CMH and ELP, and grow their 4 main CA cities (and smaller cities as well) with new destinations and more connecting-the-network-dots (including within CA.) We've already seen that strategy carried forward into early 2019 and I hope it will continue, despite their reduced growth plans already disclosed.

bb

wedgetail737 wrote:

cschleic wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

The AS Q400 between SJC-BOI has been successful.

To be fair this route has been around for a long long time - before SJC was even a focus city. I believe it was started for the tech connections. Hewlett-Packard used to have a large presence in Boise and there’s still a lot of tech there. WN also serves the route now. Plus, Boise is considerably more remote than Eugene with a larger population, which is why Alaska has a fair amount of point to point flying from BOI.

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

lol, DAL/LAS-ORD. you know they've been cutting frequency on SFO/LAX, right?

I’m waiting for AS to open up ANC-MSP. DL has dominated that market for too long.

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

They can barely fly 2x per day SFO-ORD, but will open up a bunch of other smaller Western cities to ORD routes? Don’t see this happening.

SFOtoORD wrote:

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

They can barely fly 2x per day SFO-ORD, but will open up a bunch of other smaller Western cities to ORD routes? Don’t see this happening.

I could see them trying SJC-ORD to attempt to chase UA off it. They were successful with this strategy with EWR.

wedgetail737 wrote:

If there is any expansion out of SBP, it would be another (probably seasonal) flight to SEA and maybe PDX. I think AS has bigger fish to fry out of SAN.

Yes wedgie', there's definitely a big fish-fry happening in SAN, with plenty of pretty low hanging fruit still available but I include some of the intra-CA routes that have been discussed, such as SBP, among them.

AS is already feeling constraints of sorts at SDIA -- RON parking for example -- but with careful scheduling (read: more added flights have to be in the afternoons) along with added real estate as a result of their move to Terminal 2E next year, they should have a lot of growth potential remaining here.

The nice thing about short-haul adds, such as intra-CA routes, is they are easier to schedule at congested cities like SFO, SJC, LA, and SAN when there is gate space available. Long hauls such as Hawaii, JFK, BWI or RDU, generally have a much smaller window when they can be effectively scheduled. SAN-JFK, particularly if there's only 1 flight offered, would have to leave either in the morning, or at night as a red-eye; and of course there are slots on the other end that further limit the options. SAN-BWI is the same thing; AS wants to sked that flight out of SAN in the morning (and did so briefly last month) but has already had to change it back to a red-eye starting last Friday, due to the lack of RON parking, and congestion at the AS gates in the early morning.

But a flight to SBP or SBA (or SCK) could be scheduled more easily at many times that are not as congested. A 10am flight to SBP or a 3:30pm flight to SBA would be fine. Even a multi-flight route such as SAN-OAK could be pretty easily slipped into the existing sked. And the new SAN-ELP trip is an early afternoon turn at SDIA.

There's some chatter about SAN-STS seeing a second frequency, SAN-FAT is on the verge of sticking with triple-daily service year-round, and SAN-SJC is now permanently settled into 4x daily. I think, and hope, AS's intra-CA strategy is alive and well at SAN and will hopefully continue along with mid- and long-haul service additions.

bb

iflykpdx wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

They can barely fly 2x per day SFO-ORD, but will open up a bunch of other smaller Western cities to ORD routes? Don’t see this happening.

I could see them trying SJC-ORD to attempt to chase UA off it. They were successful with this strategy with EWR.

Mostly seems like domestic SJC routes over 1,000 miles are pretty marginal routes.

SFOtoORD wrote:

Mostly seems like domestic SJC routes over 1,000 miles are pretty marginal routes.

Clearly not enough to sustain two carriers on that route. I still don't think that would necessarily dissuade AS from trying it.

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

Sorry, but I seriously doubt this. I'll believe it when I see it. IDK how they'd be able to get so much more gate space at ORD for that many more flights.

iflykpdx wrote:

Clearly not enough to sustain two carriers on that route [SJC-ORD]. I still don't think that would necessarily dissuade AS from trying it.

I can't speek for SJC (except to say that if AS doesn't feel the traffic is there, they won't waste the resources on it) but I will say that even though AS flying SAN-ORD would be the 4th carrier on the route (competing with AA, UA & NK which fly a total of ~8-10 daily r/t) I wouldn't be surprised at all to see AAG start it at some point.

Exactly the same situation as SAN-JFK - 3 cx currently in the market with 6-7 flights, AS would make 4 -- which I think AS will prolly start in 2019. The only question I have is whether they will be able to offer a morning departure from SAN -- similar to the SJC-JFK sked -- or if it will have to be a red-eye -- like the PDX-JFK sked?

Between SAN and O'Hare, I would hope to see 2 daily r/t minimum but I would certainly settle for just one.

AAG is building its customers base -- corporate as well as leisure -- in San Diego and in order to continue doing that they simply need to add the popular markets to which their flyers here want to fly. AS is now at about 50 daily departures to 30 nonstop destinations from SAN and Chicago and New York City (via JFK) are destinations they need in order to keep the customer base happy and expanding. The number of cx already serving these 2 destinations, as well as the pax stats, show the popularity of the markets.

bb

Looks like SANSJC drops from 4x to 2x.

SANFan wrote:

iflykpdx wrote:

Clearly not enough to sustain two carriers on that route [SJC-ORD]. I still don't think that would necessarily dissuade AS from trying it.

I can't speek for SJC (except to say that if AS doesn't feel the traffic is there, they won't waste the resources on it) but I will say that even though AS flying SAN-ORD would be the 4th carrier on the route (competing with AA, UA & NK which fly a total of ~8-10 daily r/t) I wouldn't be surprised at all to see AAG start it at some point.

Sorry, I was referring to SJC-EWR as far as the "two carriers" comment goes. I have no idea how AA/UA are doing on SJC-ORD, just that AS obviously has more eggs in the SJC basket than UA does, so being able to knock UA off SJC-ORD like they did on SJC-EWR would not surprise me if AS were to start it. Granted they are two (possibly very) different markets, so time will tell what happens.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Looks like SANSJC drops from 4x to 2x.

This may be an error or place holder while they move things around. In summer they’re showing this route with a mix of Skywest and mainline at 4x daily. Also they’re adding a 739 to SANSMF.

But these changes are a bit odd including the now 5x daily SFOPSP on E75s.

Well putting all the stuff posted today together, maybe they are going the F9/SYNK p2p route a bit more and are just getting the pieces repositioned? Or not.

I addressed the AS changes at SAN on the OAG thread.

SAN-SJC will apparently be 4x daily r/t permanently, seeing all 3 fleet-types! SAN-SMF is also being increased to 4x daily. Neither of these changes is a surprise to me.

In fact, WN just, a week or so ago, beginning in early 2019, increased both SAN-SJC and SAN-SMF to 13 daily r/t! Gee, do we suppose maybe WN saw these increases coming from AS?

Good for AAG. And they always offer F seating on all flights and that must please some travelers!

bb

iflykpdx wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

They can barely fly 2x per day SFO-ORD, but will open up a bunch of other smaller Western cities to ORD routes? Don’t see this happening.

I could see them trying SJC-ORD to attempt to chase UA off it. They were successful with this strategy with EWR.

As much as I would like to see it, how do can AS do it better p2p than UA to one of its hubs?

To end the weekend discussion here, I thought I'd bring the subject back to the actual topic of the thread.

This whole topic & thread started back in August with a tweet from an AS employee named Laura who told a disappointed flyer, "Stay tuned in the coming weeks for new markets to be announced." The speculation began!

On 8/29, SEA-CMH was announced by AAG. Also on that day, someone posted this: "internal announcement states: "...three more to come this year."

On 9/27, AS announced ELP as another new station, with service to SEA and SAN. One down and 2 left?

Seems to me it's about time for another new route/destination/station/market announcement from The Company. I predict it will happen this week -- Wednesday or Thursday.

I'm going further out on the limb and suggesting that AS's service to Paine Field in Everett (PAE) will be this week's announcement! That service by AAG, UA and WN is supposed to be starting early next year (I've heard January mentioned) and the cx have to give themselves at least a couple of months lead time to get some bodies on those beginning flights. We're just about to November so January is only a couple months away.

One thing I'm wondering is if AS will start all 13 flights to 8 different destinations all at once, or if they'll stagger them over a couple of months? I'm betting they will announce all the schedules at once but there will be maybe 2 or possibly 3 start dates for the routes.

Anyway, that's my prediction. What do the rest of you think?

bb

I’ll throw MSN in with PAE.

I would guess MSN and/or TUL.

AS would need to wait for approval to announce PAE, given that the terminal is still currently being worked on...

SANFan wrote:

On 9/27, AS announced ELP as another new station, with service to SEA and SAN. One down and 2 left?

Seems to me it's about time for another new route/destination/station/market announcement from The Company. I predict it will happen this week -- Wednesday or Thursday.

Anyway, that's my prediction. What do the rest of you think?

While F9 has less-than-daily seasonal nonstop service to CLE from SEA, the lack of daily nonstop service to CLE from SEA is a huge hole, and there is more than enough demand for AS to add SEA-CLE nonstop service.

ORF is one of the top destinations traveled to from SEA that isn't currently served nonstop from SEA, and AS could also add SEA-ORF nonstop service.

While AA currently has nonstop service to CLT from SEA, AS could add SEA-CLT nonstop service since AA is currently the only airline to serve CLT nonstop from the West Coast, since there are restrictions on the AA-AS codeshare that weren't there in the past, and since CLT is one of the top markets traveled to from SEA that isn't currently served by AS.

In addition to CLE, ORF, and CLT, AS also needs to add SEA-CVG nonstop service in order to retain frequent flyers and corporate contracts in the Greater Seattle market.

Even though AS already serves ORD and IAH nonstop from SEA, AS also has opportunities to add nonstop service to MDW and HOU from SEA since AS already has nonstop service to other secondary commercial airports such as OAK, BUR, SNA, ONT, and DAL from SEA and PDX.

I think that AS will announce nonstop service to CLT, CLE, CVG, and ORF from SEA within the next year, and I also think that AS could also possibly announce nonstop service to MDW and HOU from SEA in the near future.

Remember that AS has announced only 2% yoy growth for 2019...I wouldn't expect too much from them in the coming year as far as adding new cities.

iflykpdx wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

timberwolf24 wrote:

Whispers I’ve heard, ORD-DAL/SAN/SJC/LAS, with increased frequency to SFO and LAX.

They can barely fly 2x per day SFO-ORD, but will open up a bunch of other smaller Western cities to ORD routes? Don’t see this happening.

I could see them trying SJC-ORD to attempt to chase UA off it. They were successful with this strategy with EWR.

Actually, UA only started SJC-EWR because AS announced it. UA was the one who was trying to knock off AS.

lavalampluva wrote:

I’m waiting for AS to open up ANC-MSP. DL has dominated that market for too long.

I’d love it, but I just don’t see it...DL is down to less than daily in deep winter on that route and that’s with a major hub on one end. Maybe as a summer seasonal flight if (or when) SY ever dumps MSP-ANC with this new ULCC model of theirs.

Chugach wrote:

lavalampluva wrote:

I’m waiting for AS to open up ANC-MSP. DL has dominated that market for too long.

I’d love it, but I just don’t see it...DL is down to less than daily in deep winter on that route and that’s with a major hub on one end. Maybe as a summer seasonal flight if (or when) SY ever dumps MSP-ANC with this new ULCC model of theirs.

I don’t think SY would dump it. They use it primarily for cruise ship passengers. They have good loads during the summer.

JFK-PSP is back.

Where are you finding it Dieuwer? I’m not finding JFK-PSP in the booking engine.

USAavdork wrote:

Where are you finding it Dieuwer? I’m not finding JFK-PSP in the booking engine.

Example: 12/21/18 JFK-PSP 7:30AM-10:50AM. $372.

Dieuwer: I think it might just be for the holidays. I can’t find anything past December nonstop any day of the week/ weekend- only 1 stops.