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Grizzly410
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu May 23, 2019 9:22 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
zeke wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
One on an A380 test platform I can absolutely see. Four on commercial A380? Not so much. That ship has sailed beyond the horizon, I am afraid.


Interesting, so ER/Airbus develop the engine, pylon, nacelle, and integrate it into the airframe/avionics on the A380. Then do the certification flight testing for the engine.

What exactly is the risk for RR/Airbus at that point to offer the engine to airframes already in service ?

The integration is done in a rather unoptimised way in a test frame and so is not like it would be on a production frame and is done so to please certification authorities on a one off basis, same as flying an aircraft under an experimental type certificate. Not a similar install or certification procedure to a full flying aircraft.

The integration that is done is ‘to get it away’ rather than make it a standard type.

Fred


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Exactly. I like your pov Zeke, but it imply you need to invest much more upfront in the FT installation design to make sure you build something you will want to certify (with as few as possible integration cost) rather than something that will just do a FT campaign (like when they installed Trent XWB under A380 wing) to certify the engine itself. Not its integration or its pylon. That's a vastly different exercice, I think.
That's not a risk issue, but a cost one
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seabosdca
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Thu May 23, 2019 10:30 pm

enzo011 wrote:
But the frame in the competition is the A35K and it is the same size, if not larger than the 778, so how does your post have any relevance at all? Airbus offered the A359 but all we have heard lately is that it is too small and thus the A35K is the frame in contention. So he stabbed Boeing in the back by scaling back the passenger requirements to allow Airbus to not offer the A359? :confused:


No, the point is that a lower payload requirement neutralizes the 778's payload range advantage and allows the A350 to take better advantage of its empty weight advantage. (Though the larger idea that Joyce is defining the requirements to favor an OEM, rather than to maximize financial return, is absurd.)
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri May 24, 2019 3:25 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
If it were to happen, it would be the first production re-engining programme for a commercial jet airliner since the DC-8 70 series, which was itself the first production re-engining programme for a commercial jet airliner.


The most recent example would be the 524 H/T. RR put the Trent 700 hot section into the RB211 524 to upgrade it to a 524 H/T which I believe QF was a customer for on their 744s.

Grizzly410 wrote:
Exactly. I like your pov Zeke, but it imply you need to invest much more upfront in the FT installation design to make sure you build something you will want to certify (with as few as possible integration cost) rather than something that will just do a FT campaign (like when they installed Trent XWB under A380 wing) to certify the engine itself. Not its integration or its pylon. That's a vastly different exercice, I think.
That's not a risk issue, but a cost one


With ACUTE (Airbus Cockpit Universal Thrust Emulator) they had designed the A350/A380 to be setup for multiple engines from the outset, the aircraft references everything to a percentage of thrust rather than EPR or N1.

The test pylon setup would meet the standard certification load cases, granted this could be further optimised. But this would not be done by hand with a slide rule. The further investment would not be that significant, half the issue with a re-engine is working out the strength of the structure it is being attached to. They could recoup that investment through ongoing support for the airframes for another 15 years.

I think Airbus would actually earn more by doing and engine upgrade and supporting the airframe for another 15 years than building a new airframe and supporting that for 15 years. Their main investment would be in the pylon, cowl, and a software update. To physically upgrade an aircraft they probably could do that in a month compared to 18 months to produce a new airframe. I acknowledge they would need to do performance test flights as well, however they are well experienced at doing this over many types.

Ultrafan upgrades to the A350/A380 would be a strategy to squeeze the 77X pricing from below and above with minimum investment by Airbus. The are looking at doing the same strategy with the A320/A330 with the NMA.

It is not like the A380s in service would be considered as being high in cycles.

For accountants when the perform a NPV analysis of a 779 vs a A380 with Ultrafan, the A380 would on paper an attractive proposal (the list price of a 779 is near identical to an A380 around $440 million and change). The in service A380 airframes would largely be depreciated and the DOC on a per seat basis would favour the A380 with Ultrafan. I believe Boeing was claiming a 10% DOC advantage over the current A380 with the 779.
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JAAlbert
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri May 24, 2019 4:09 am

Bricktop wrote:
cpd wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
Please Qantas, pick the damn aircraft of choice so we can move beyond fuel burn and my-engine-is-better-than-your-engine comments!


Technically, they are all breaking the forum rules in that technical discussion is only supposed to be in the technical sub-forum.

But, I'm sure we are all thankful that it isn't another A-v-B back and forwards! Hence why nobody is complaining. :)

Oh yes it is. But it's being fought as a proxy war between GE and RR. ;)


Hah! That is hilarious (and true!)
 
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri May 24, 2019 4:16 am

seabosdca wrote:
No, the point is that a lower payload requirement neutralizes the 778's payload range advantage and allows the A350 to take better advantage of its empty weight advantage. (Though the larger idea that Joyce is defining the requirements to favor an OEM, rather than to maximize financial return, is absurd.)



But what lower payload argument and how does it apply when the payload in this case, passengers and bags, is actually in favour of the 777X (lesser capacity than the A350)? Unless Qantas orders a A359ULR enhanced versions that has some A35K features that allows it take off at a higher MTOW to tank enough fuel for the flight, both aircraft under consideration will have a similar payload requirement. I believe the A359 has been ruled out for this very reason, it doesn't have the capacity required. So the point made by par13del almost hits the spot, but now just seems like a petty fanboy comment.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri May 24, 2019 4:31 am

enzo011 wrote:
But what lower payload argument and how does it apply when the payload in this case, passengers and bags, is actually in favour of the 777X (lesser capacity than the A350)? Unless Qantas orders a A359ULR enhanced version


The position being put forward above with the 778 having less floor area than the A350-1000, it can counter the above deck revenue disadvantage with additional under floor cargo mass (it still has less under floor area as well for cargo). The answer to which is better may actually be in the medium haul routes such as SYD-PEK, SYD-HKG they have suggested these aircraft will also rotate though.

It is far to hard to tell, unless one is privy to the parametric study they are doing, everything is educated guesses at this point. The order itself will be an educated guess looking into the future 20 years.
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RJMAZ
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri May 24, 2019 4:50 am

zeke wrote:
I think Airbus would actually earn more by doing and engine upgrade and supporting the airframe for another 15 years than building a new airframe and supporting that for 15 years.

This is something i agree with. If there was an existing aircraft to have new engines fitted to it would be the A380.

Though i highly doubt A350 engines would get used as they are too big. I am sure we will have a 787NEO around the same time or just shortly after the A350NEO. So the Rolls Royce engines for the 787NEO would be a perfect size for the A380.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri May 24, 2019 9:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
Moka,

Did you apply to be a moderator? I'm serious.




No, no, I considered applying but worried that it may be time-consuming...

lightsaber wrote:
It is facinating to see the differences, but users become obsessed with little differences. For example, A350 weight, yet the A320NEO, A330NEO, and E2 all gained substantial weight to achieve the even more substantial fuel savings.

Lightsaber


Yep, things aren't always black or white. There's a lot of grey. There isn't just one consideration when designing, building, purchasing or operating an aircraft. There are many, many variables. Something that may be considered suboptimal for one aircraft may be the redeeming feature of another.

Like the 777X wing, for example, BIG and possibly quite heavy but required to achieve the best performance from that particular frame.

Also, the examples you listed.

Sometimes more is more...
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jagraham
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat May 25, 2019 5:23 pm

zeke wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
But what lower payload argument and how does it apply when the payload in this case, passengers and bags, is actually in favour of the 777X (lesser capacity than the A350)? Unless Qantas orders a A359ULR enhanced version


The position being put forward above with the 778 having less floor area than the A350-1000, it can counter the above deck revenue disadvantage with additional under floor cargo mass (it still has less under floor area as well for cargo). The answer to which is better may actually be in the medium haul routes such as SYD-PEK, SYD-HKG they have suggested these aircraft will also rotate though.

It is far to hard to tell, unless one is privy to the parametric study they are doing, everything is educated guesses at this point. The order itself will be an educated guess looking into the future 20 years.


The bigger point (which you said before) is to have a Project Sunrise aircraft which also performs better on not so VLA routes. The spiral to carry 300 pax and bags and the necessary fuel will push the A35J to 330t or even more. The engines will have to get more powerful (bigger and heavier (or wait for the Ultrafan)) and the fuel savings from lower thrust disappears. So accepting what a 320t A35J is capable of minimizes cost and maximizes utility. This change convinced me that QF is leaning towards the A35J.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat May 25, 2019 5:23 pm

zeke wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
But what lower payload argument and how does it apply when the payload in this case, passengers and bags, is actually in favour of the 777X (lesser capacity than the A350)? Unless Qantas orders a A359ULR enhanced version


The position being put forward above with the 778 having less floor area than the A350-1000, it can counter the above deck revenue disadvantage with additional under floor cargo mass (it still has less under floor area as well for cargo). The answer to which is better may actually be in the medium haul routes such as SYD-PEK, SYD-HKG they have suggested these aircraft will also rotate though.

It is far to hard to tell, unless one is privy to the parametric study they are doing, everything is educated guesses at this point. The order itself will be an educated guess looking into the future 20 years.


The bigger point (which you said before) is to have a Project Sunrise aircraft which also performs better on not so VLA routes. The spiral to carry 300 pax and bags and the necessary fuel will push the A35J to 330t or even more. The engines will have to get more powerful (bigger and heavier (or wait for the Ultrafan)) and the fuel savings from lower thrust disappears. So accepting what a 320t A35J is capable of minimizes cost and maximizes utility. This change convinced me that QF is leaning towards the A35J.
 
tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat May 25, 2019 8:46 pm

Yes, if you look at the range of routes (various combinations of Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane/Perth to/from London/Paris/Frankfurt and Dallas/Chicago/Nee York/Rio/Sao Paulo plus the shorter Asian routes it’s clear that the calculus will not by LHR and NYC. So long as the 35K can manage ~250 mostly premium pax to London it will be just fine for all the other shorter sectors with 300+ pax.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 4:08 am

Does Singapore use their A359ULR
aircraft for anything other than long haul, filling in on regional routes ?
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 7:33 am

Max Q wrote:
Does Singapore use their A359ULR
aircraft for anything other than long haul, filling in on regional routes ?


It doesn't look like it and was trivial to check.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-sga
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-sgb
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-sgc
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-sgd
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-sge
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RJMAZ
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 12:21 pm

Max Q wrote:
Does Singapore use their A359ULR
aircraft for anything other than long haul, filling in on regional routes ?

The singapore ULR aircraft only do long haul with zero regional work.

The Airbus guys are simply trying to justify why Qantas should purchase the A350-1000.

The only reason an aircraft might do a short medium haul regional flight is to fill up a 24 hour cycle. With a 12 hour long haul flight when the plane returns back home it will be 26+ hours. So it either has to sit around for 22 hours or get used on a medium haul route.

For Qantas and their London and New York routes they will simply allocate the full 24 hour cycle for the trip there and 24 hours for the trip back home.

Qantas will need two aircraft per ULH route to do a daily flight. If a 777-8 goes tech they can not swap a 787 onto the project sunrise route. So it is highly likely they will also use the 777-8 on a route that can be done by a 787-9 in a pinch. Probably a route with high freight demand.

If I was Qantas CEO I would put a 777-8 on the Perth to London route. I would also have the Perth flight arriving in London a couple hours after the non stop Sydney and Melbourne flights. So the bags from the Melbourne and Sydney non stop flights could be put on the Perth flight when required. This way the 777-8 could do the London Sydney route completely standard with no modifications and a full load of 300 passengers providing the passenger bags are taken out. It would be extremely easy to send the bags via Perth.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 12:49 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
If I was Qantas CEO I would put a 777-8 on the Perth to London route. I would also have the Perth flight arriving in London a couple hours after the non stop Sydney and Melbourne flights. So the bags from the Melbourne and Sydney non stop flights could be put on the Perth flight when required. This way the 777-8 could do the London Sydney route completely standard with no modifications and a full load of 300 passengers providing the passenger bags are taken out. It would be extremely easy to send the bags via Perth.


So you're suggesting the bags arrive a couple of hours after the passengers arrive, thus negating the benefit of a non-stop from SYD or MEL? I personally prefer to grab my bag, clear customs and be on my way after flying halfway round the globe....
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 12:53 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
The Airbus guys are simply trying to justify why Qantas should purchase the A350-1000.


It comes from the Alan Joyce who apparently works part time at Airbus and Qantas.

“Qantas will aim to place a new order by the end of 2019, aiming for delivery between 2022 and 2023, Joyce said. He said the planes had to be flexible enough to fly Sydney-London and from Sydney to Hong Kong or Beijing.”

From https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... s-says-non

The article and quote has appeared previously on this thread.
Last edited by zeke on Sun May 26, 2019 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RayChuang
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 12:54 pm

Look, I think right now the likely winner will be a higher MTOW version of the 777-8, but seating on the plane will be limited to 240-250 passengers in Premium Economy and Business class seating only. With good reason: with such extremely long flights, deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) becomes a major issue if the passengers don't have decent seating comfort.
 
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par13del
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 1:00 pm

Qantas737 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
If I was Qantas CEO I would put a 777-8 on the Perth to London route. I would also have the Perth flight arriving in London a couple hours after the non stop Sydney and Melbourne flights. So the bags from the Melbourne and Sydney non stop flights could be put on the Perth flight when required. This way the 777-8 could do the London Sydney route completely standard with no modifications and a full load of 300 passengers providing the passenger bags are taken out. It would be extremely easy to send the bags via Perth.


So you're suggesting the bags arrive a couple of hours after the passengers arrive, thus negating the benefit of a non-stop from SYD or MEL? I personally prefer to grab my bag, clear customs and be on my way after flying halfway round the globe....

Don't think that is what he said, he is talking about IROPS, as the words "when required" implies.
The issue would be whether there is enough time locally for missed bags to get form one airport to the other, Australia is a large country and the flying distances may take more time than would work, especially when you consider the curfew in the UK. Missed bags would just have to go the normal route, next day or same day via third carriers with multiple stops.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 1:02 pm

RJMAZ reply 865:
The singapore ULR aircraft only do long haul with zero regional work. The Airbus guys are simply trying to justify why Qantas should purchase the A350-1000.

The consences is that the aircraft will be required to do some Asian medium haul, as well. We will see

Qantas will need two aircraft per ULH route to do a daily flight.

They will need 2.5 to 3 aircraft per long haul route to LHR & any other European city served. Further up this thread Zeke & I discussed this, I assumed 2.5 as that was the number of B744s & A380s allocated before QF9/10 was rerouted via PER, Zeke maintained 3 per route would be needed due to curfews on both ends, he could very well be correct.
If I was Qantas CEO I would put a 777-8 on the Perth to London route. I would also have the Perth flight arriving in London a couple hours after the non stop Sydney and Melbourne flights. So the bags from the Melbourne and Sydney non stop flights could be put on the Perth flight when required. This way the 777-8 could do the London Sydney route completely standard with no modifications and a full load of 300 passengers providing the passenger bags are taken out. It would be extremely easy to send the bags via Perth

Then it is a very good thing you are not QFs CEO. Arrival & departure times at LHR are not variable by an airline, they have specific time slots. They can vary which service they use the slot for but thats it & QF only have 4 slots. I honestly do not think PER could support a B778, even carring east coast bags. Actually IMHO it is not certain that PER will retain its non stop service to LHR once the east coast non stops have been running for awhile.
Again, everybody DO NOT under estimate QFs need to minimuise capex. That WIL be a major factor in the decsiction, not just cost price but also all maintance & uitilisation of the aircraft, this is where the importance of their use on Asian routes comes in.

Gemuser
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 1:09 pm

RayChuang wrote:
Look, I think right now the likely winner will be a higher MTOW version of the 777-8, but seating on the plane will be limited to 240-250 passengers in Premium Economy and Business class seating only. With good reason: with such extremely long flights, deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) becomes a major issue if the passengers don't have decent seating comfort.


I think you're wrong. I fully expect first class to be on these aircraft, and there to still be four classes. It may just have fewer economy class passengers. The money is in the premium classes, and I would be quite surprised if there is no first class.

The seat comfort is not really the issue with DVT, it's more the lack of moving around. It is laid out on the entertainment systems and in the inflight magazines the exercises you can do to minimise the risk. Also, I haven't seen hundreds of news articles about people dropping dead from DVT recently, so it's not really a big issue now, is it?
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 1:19 pm

Qantas737 wrote:
So you're suggesting the bags arrive a couple of hours after the passengers arrive, thus negating the benefit of a non-stop from SYD or MEL? I personally prefer to grab my bag, clear customs and be on my way after flying halfway round the globe....

On a day with bad weather the other option would be to block 50 seats and deny boarding to 50 passengers... Clearly the bags going by Perth would be a better option.

I am sure the bags could arrive shortly after you clear customs. I am sure Qantas could have the domestic and Perth flight tightly synced. Maybe the bags could leave on the domestic flight to Perth 15 minutes early. Swapoing the bags at Perth might take 30 minutes so the bags might be less than 30 minutes behind.

It is an extremely simple solution. On good weather days the bags would simply go on the non stop flight with the passengers.

You simply do not understand the flight planning works with weather. A route must take into account good, bad and average weather. There is no point fitting 300 seats on a plane if 50 seats gets blocked for half the year. You need to plan the route and number of seats to take into account a bad weather day. Putting the bags onto another flight adds massive flexibility. The bags could go via Perth only on the 5% worst weather days, or they could go via Perth 50% of the time. If the A350-1000 was selected I'm sure the bags would go on another flight nuch more often.
 
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par13del
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 1:19 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
[
I think you're wrong. I fully expect first class to be on these aircraft, and there to still be four classes. It may just have fewer economy class passengers. The money is in the premium classes, and I would be quite surprised if there is no first class.

My thinking is the less classes would allow the fares to be more inclusive of more pax, there is a limited number of pax who this flight will appeal to, if one then add's a first class, that number of qualifying pax get's even smaller, QF will need more repeat pax more frequently, and the more volume you can get the more the cost can be spread. When you consider first is multiples of premium economy you get an idea that Y could be eliminated and go all premium, its just whether you go up to first, besides, some premium today is better than yesteryear first.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 2:48 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
On a day with bad weather the other option would be to block 50 seats and deny boarding to 50 passengers... Clearly the bags going by Perth would be a better option.

I am sure the bags could arrive shortly after you clear customs. I am sure Qantas could have the domestic and Perth flight tightly synced. Maybe the bags could leave on the domestic flight to Perth 15 minutes early. Swapoing the bags at Perth might take 30 minutes so the bags might be less than 30 minutes behind.

It is an extremely simple solution. On good weather days the bags would simply go on the non stop flight with the passengers.

You simply do not understand the flight planning works with weather. A route must take into account good, bad and average weather. There is no point fitting 300 seats on a plane if 50 seats gets blocked for half the year. You need to plan the route and number of seats to take into account a bad weather day. Putting the bags onto another flight adds massive flexibility. The bags could go via Perth only on the 5% worst weather days, or they could go via Perth 50% of the time. If the A350-1000 was selected I'm sure the bags would go on another flight nuch more often.


Bags go with passengers, they are not split up for security reasons.
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flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 3:00 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
If the A350-1000 was selected I'm sure the bags would go on another flight nuch more often.
you state it like it’s a fact, it is only a fact in the same way that that A350-1000 will operate the route more cost effectively.

Fred



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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 3:55 pm

par13del wrote:
My thinking is the less classes would allow the fares to be more inclusive of more pax, there is a limited number of pax who this flight will appeal to, if one then add's a first class, that number of qualifying pax get's even smaller, QF will need more repeat pax more frequently, and the more volume you can get the more the cost can be spread. When you consider first is multiples of premium economy you get an idea that Y could be eliminated and go all premium, its just whether you go up to first, besides, some premium today is better than yesteryear first.


I take umbrage at your remark that "there is a limited number of pax who this flight will appeal to". The statistics for year one of the Perth to London flight show that it operated with a 94% load factor. Where the passengers come from... 50% from Perth, 25% from Melbourne (since it is a MEL-PER-LHR service), 7% Sydney, 6% Brisbane, 4% Adelaide, 2% Canberra and 6% elsewhere.

It is also the longest flight on the network and has the highest customer satisfaction out of any route Qantas operate. The source is here.

While Qantas may not include first class, your comment is just plain incorrect. If they can fill the flight from Perth, with a population of 2 million people, they are going to have no problem whatsoever filling it from Sydney (5.2 million population), Melbourne (4.9 million population) and Brisbane (population 2.4 million). Qantas were happily surprised at the success of the route, and there is no reason why the other routes would be any less successful.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
LH707330
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 5:34 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Does Singapore use their A359ULR
aircraft for anything other than long haul, filling in on regional routes ?

The singapore ULR aircraft only do long haul with zero regional work.

The Airbus guys are simply trying to justify why Qantas should purchase the A350-1000.

The only reason an aircraft might do a short medium haul regional flight is to fill up a 24 hour cycle. With a 12 hour long haul flight when the plane returns back home it will be 26+ hours. So it either has to sit around for 22 hours or get used on a medium haul route.


That's only if you've got one of them. Many airlines will send plane A on the 26-hour round trip 1, and plane B on a 22-hour round trip 2, and time the flights so that A swaps to route 2 and B to 1 when they get back the next day, so both do a 48-hour rotation. Similarly, if QF have ~20 hour flights with 2x1.5-hour turns, that takes them 43 hours per cycle and 5 hours for mx downtime. Some rotations may be more complicated for curfew reasons and get them to 52 hours or whatever, so it'd be basically the same idea as other network carriers, except a 48-hour round robin as opposed to a 24-hour one.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 5:40 pm

par13del wrote:
My thinking is the less classes would allow the fares to be more inclusive of more pax, there is a limited number of pax who this flight will appeal to, if one then add's a first class, that number of qualifying pax get's even smaller, QF will need more repeat pax more frequently, and the more volume you can get the more the cost can be spread. When you consider first is multiples of premium economy you get an idea that Y could be eliminated and go all premium, its just whether you go up to first, besides, some premium today is better than yesteryear first.


QF only flies the A380 between SYD and LHR, correct? Ditto the EK codeshares?

All of them have First Class, so why wouldn't Project Sunrise? If you are worried about yields, make it a cabin of just one row of Suites.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 5:50 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Qantas737 wrote:
So you're suggesting the bags arrive a couple of hours after the passengers arrive, thus negating the benefit of a non-stop from SYD or MEL? I personally prefer to grab my bag, clear customs and be on my way after flying halfway round the globe....

On a day with bad weather the other option would be to block 50 seats and deny boarding to 50 passengers... Clearly the bags going by Perth would be a better option.

I am sure the bags could arrive shortly after you clear customs. I am sure Qantas could have the domestic and Perth flight tightly synced. Maybe the bags could leave on the domestic flight to Perth 15 minutes early. Swapoing the bags at Perth might take 30 minutes so the bags might be less than 30 minutes behind.

It is an extremely simple solution. On good weather days the bags would simply go on the non stop flight with the passengers.

You simply do not understand the flight planning works with weather. A route must take into account good, bad and average weather. There is no point fitting 300 seats on a plane if 50 seats gets blocked for half the year. You need to plan the route and number of seats to take into account a bad weather day. Putting the bags onto another flight adds massive flexibility. The bags could go via Perth only on the 5% worst weather days, or they could go via Perth 50% of the time. If the A350-1000 was selected I'm sure the bags would go on another flight nuch more often.
Seriously? You shouldn't drink and post on a forum. It is the silliest thing I have heard in a while.

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ClassicLover
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 6:32 pm

LH707330 wrote:
That's only if you've got one of them. Many airlines will send plane A on the 26-hour round trip 1, and plane B on a 22-hour round trip 2, and time the flights so that A swaps to route 2 and B to 1 when they get back the next day, so both do a 48-hour rotation. Similarly, if QF have ~20 hour flights with 2x1.5-hour turns, that takes them 43 hours per cycle and 5 hours for mx downtime. Some rotations may be more complicated for curfew reasons and get them to 52 hours or whatever, so it'd be basically the same idea as other network carriers, except a 48-hour round robin as opposed to a 24-hour one.


I have a question then.

The Boeing 747-400 that flew London to Sydney took 20 hours, 9 minutes and 5 seconds back in 1989.

With this type of flight time, how does it match up with regards to the Heathrow slots and the Sydney curfew? I only ask about Sydney as Melbourne and Brisbane have no curfew. I assume the flight times will be viable, or will Qantas be looking at trading slots at Heathrow to better match the times?
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 6:42 pm

Let's suppose that QF selects either the B778 or A351 for deliveries in the 2022-2024 timeframe.

By 2025 Airbus could be launching an A350-1000neo with a 2027 delivery date.

Let's suppose for the sake of the argument that such aircraft would have a 15-25% fuel burn improvement over the current iteration and would be able to take a higher payload without the need of other major mods.

Does it make sense for AJ to jump on this now while he could get that additional fuel economy over the 20 year lifespan of the aircraft, with less compromises in terms of weight, for the benefit of winning 3-5 years?

If you look at this that way, QF is going to be stuck with suboptimal airframes for 20 years just for the sake and eagerness of launching this fast.
 
tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 6:50 pm

If we're talking RR Ultrafan for an A350neo the fuel burn improvement won't be anything like that much.

But I don't see the problem. If QF go for the A350 the timetable for neo availability is likely to work for an eventual A380 replacement programme. At which point neo airframes take on ULH and the initial tranche of A350s with Trent XWBs shift to long-haul and regional routes.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 7:18 pm

tealnz wrote:
If we're talking RR Ultrafan for an A350neo the fuel burn improvement won't be anything like that much.

But I don't see the problem. If QF go for the A350 the timetable for neo availability is likely to work for an eventual A380 replacement programme. At which point neo airframes take on ULH and the initial tranche of A350s with Trent XWBs shift to long-haul and regional routes.


Even slightly less than 15% fuel burn improvement would result in a 20 ton increase in useful load.
That's 200 pax or 3 hours of range.
Sure, if they select the A350, they have the option to take the early TXWB frames to operate more traditional routes.
Still, are those 3-5 years time to market worth it?

Obviously, the CEO wants to do this while he his in control and can get the budgets approved, for fame and glory, but one has to look at this for the long run.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 7:25 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
If we're talking RR Ultrafan for an A350neo the fuel burn improvement won't be anything like that much.

But I don't see the problem. If QF go for the A350 the timetable for neo availability is likely to work for an eventual A380 replacement programme. At which point neo airframes take on ULH and the initial tranche of A350s with Trent XWBs shift to long-haul and regional routes.


Even slightly less than 15% fuel burn improvement would result in a 20 ton increase in useful load.
That's 200 pax or 3 hours of range.
Sure, if they select the A350, they have the option to take the early TXWB frames to operate more traditional routes.
Still, are those 3-5 years time to market worth it?

Obviously, the CEO wants to do this while he his in control and can get the budgets approved, for fame and glory, but one has to look at this for the long run.

What is the likelihood that the new engines would be ‘retrofit able’? Is this something that airbus could at this stage be looking to either bake in to the A350 or could it be that RR will make to fit within existing constraints of the current model? I guess it depends on compromised that would make each scenario.

Fred


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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 7:31 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
par13del wrote:
My thinking is the less classes would allow the fares to be more inclusive of more pax, there is a limited number of pax who this flight will appeal to, if one then add's a first class, that number of qualifying pax get's even smaller, QF will need more repeat pax more frequently, and the more volume you can get the more the cost can be spread. When you consider first is multiples of premium economy you get an idea that Y could be eliminated and go all premium, its just whether you go up to first, besides, some premium today is better than yesteryear first.


I take umbrage at your remark that "there is a limited number of pax who this flight will appeal to". The statistics for year one of the Perth to London flight show that it operated with a 94% load factor. Where the passengers come from... 50% from Perth, 25% from Melbourne (since it is a MEL-PER-LHR service), 7% Sydney, 6% Brisbane, 4% Adelaide, 2% Canberra and 6% elsewhere.

It is also the longest flight on the network and has the highest customer satisfaction out of any route Qantas operate. The source is here.

While Qantas may not include first class, your comment is just plain incorrect. If they can fill the flight from Perth, with a population of 2 million people, they are going to have no problem whatsoever filling it from Sydney (5.2 million population), Melbourne (4.9 million population) and Brisbane (population 2.4 million). Qantas were happily surprised at the success of the route, and there is no reason why the other routes would be any less successful.

I see huge demand for the SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK routes.

I didn't realize it was a MEL-PER-LHR route. That implies it will stand.

I also expect a success to DFW from multiple Australian cities.

Lightsaber
You know nothing John Snow.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 7:47 pm

I still back my contention that the SYD to LHR and JFK non-stop routes are highly niche operations that cater to a relatively small number of passengers. After all, with the current one stop between SYD and LHR, you can fly CX, EK and SQ now (and take advantage of the excellent lounges at HKG, DXB and SIN respectively during stopovers for premium class passengers).

As such, a 777-8 limited to 240-250 passengers in Premium Economy and Business class passengers makes the most sense currently, in my humble opinion.
 
tigerotor77w
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 8:27 pm

Question specific to zeke or to flipdewaf.

The numbers posted (namely the simulation run by flipdewaf) and zeke's overall comments indicate that the A35K is the more capable plane on this route with the intended specifications.

What exactly, or on which routes, would the 778 have an advantage?

I'm not sure what will persuade Qantas to ultimately select one plane over the other, but based on the numbers and commentary presented I'm not really sure if either of you see a business case for the B778 at all.

(This is not a passive-aggressive post. I just don't have the insight or knowledge that you two do, and I'm just extrapolating what appears to be a logical conclusion here.)
 
Airlines0613
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 9:47 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
tealnz wrote:
If we're talking RR Ultrafan for an A350neo the fuel burn improvement won't be anything like that much.

But I don't see the problem. If QF go for the A350 the timetable for neo availability is likely to work for an eventual A380 replacement programme. At which point neo airframes take on ULH and the initial tranche of A350s with Trent XWBs shift to long-haul and regional routes.


Even slightly less than 15% fuel burn improvement would result in a 20 ton increase in useful load.
That's 200 pax or 3 hours of range.
Sure, if they select the A350, they have the option to take the early TXWB frames to operate more traditional routes.
Still, are those 3-5 years time to market worth it?

Obviously, the CEO wants to do this while he his in control and can get the budgets approved, for fame and glory, but one has to look at this for the long run.

What is the likelihood that the new engines would be ‘retrofit able’? Is this something that airbus could at this stage be looking to either bake in to the A350 or could it be that RR will make to fit within existing constraints of the current model? I guess it depends on compromised that would make each scenario.

Fred


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An Airbus ‘A350neo’ isn’t coming for another decade. Rolls-Royce has pushed back the UltraFan plans, due to the Trent 1000 issues. If there was to be a ‘neod’ Airbus A350, it would in a decade or so. As for the Boeing 787 and 777X, GE just started exploring geared turbofans, so nothing there for a couple of years, if not a decade, but if IIRC, GE’s high pressure to low pressure ration tech is up on par with current geared turbofan tech.
 
Airlines0613
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 9:53 pm

tigerotor77w wrote:
Question specific to zeke or to flipdewaf.

The numbers posted (namely the simulation run by flipdewaf) and zeke's overall comments indicate that the A35K is the more capable plane on this route with the intended specifications.

What exactly, or on which routes, would the 778 have an advantage?

I'm not sure what will persuade Qantas to ultimately select one plane over the other, but based on the numbers and commentary presented I'm not really sure if either of you see a business case for the B778 at all.

(This is not a passive-aggressive post. I just don't have the insight or knowledge that you two do, and I'm just extrapolating what appears to be a logical conclusion here.)

Regardless of what the information say, Airbus will always be the most optimized manufacturer/aircraft in their eyes. I would advise you to ask other users.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 9:58 pm

Airlines0613 wrote:
tigerotor77w wrote:
Question specific to zeke or to flipdewaf.

The numbers posted (namely the simulation run by flipdewaf) and zeke's overall comments indicate that the A35K is the more capable plane on this route with the intended specifications.

What exactly, or on which routes, would the 778 have an advantage?

I'm not sure what will persuade Qantas to ultimately select one plane over the other, but based on the numbers and commentary presented I'm not really sure if either of you see a business case for the B778 at all.

(This is not a passive-aggressive post. I just don't have the insight or knowledge that you two do, and I'm just extrapolating what appears to be a logical conclusion here.)

Regardless of what the information say, Airbus will always be the most optimized manufacturer/aircraft in their eyes. I would advise you to ask other users.

Wow! If you feel so aggrieved post some information and not just slander. You just denigrate your own position when you post statements like that. Please show where you think I haven’t been fair in my analysis or stop trolling.

Fred


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TaniTaniwha
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 10:28 pm

zeke wrote:

Bags go with passengers, they are not split up for security reasons.


I understand this, however, I'm not sure how this works when a customer's bags miss the flight and then arrive on another, later flight. This happened to us on a BA flight to Singapore. Our bags missed the connection in London from Dublin. The Airline paid us an 'inconvenience" sum and the bags turned up in a Taxi the next morning.
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Gemuser
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 11:31 pm

Lightsaber post No885:
I didn't realize it was a MEL-PER-LHR route. That implies it will stand.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'it will stand"
MEL - LHR non stop is likely to be the second Project Sunrise route, possiably the first, maybe the third. What will happen to PER-LHR after that is not clear but MEL will definately get a non stopper.

Gemuser
 
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Stitch
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun May 26, 2019 11:41 pm

zeke wrote:
Bags go with passengers, they are not split up for security reasons.

TaniTaniwha wrote:
I understand this, however, I'm not sure how this works when a customer's bags miss the flight and then arrive on another, later flight. This happened to us on a BA flight to Singapore. Our bags missed the connection in London from Dublin. The Airline paid us an 'inconvenience" sum and the bags turned up in a Taxi the next morning.


Security rules require that the ticketed passenger must fly for their checked bags to fly. As you may know, this was in response to a spate of incidents where terrorists checked bags with explosives aboard international flights and then did not board the flight so as to not be killed. So if QF has on occasion to send the bags on a different (set of) flight(s) due to insufficient available payload weight, that would be okay as the expectation was for both to fly on the same airplane.

Now if QF always had to do this, then there would be a problem. :wideeyed:
 
redroo
Posts: 486
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 3:10 am

Gemuser wrote:
Lightsaber post No885:
I didn't realize it was a MEL-PER-LHR route. That implies it will stand.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'it will stand"
MEL - LHR non stop is likely to be the second Project Sunrise route, possiably the first, maybe the third. What will happen to PER-LHR after that is not clear but MEL will definately get a non stopper.

Gemuser


AJ is on record saying that PER isn’t going anywhere when the MEL and SYD go non stop.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 3:24 am

redroo wrote:
AJ is on record saying that PER isn’t going anywhere when the MEL and SYD go non stop.


Which seems to make sense as I have heard PER has one of, if not the, largest UK ex-pat community around and therefore O&D should be strong enough to sustain the route without the MEL tag-on.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 4:04 am

redroo wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
Lightsaber post No885:
I didn't realize it was a MEL-PER-LHR route. That implies it will stand.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'it will stand"
MEL - LHR non stop is likely to be the second Project Sunrise route, possiably the first, maybe the third. What will happen to PER-LHR after that is not clear but MEL will definately get a non stopper.

Gemuser


AJ is on record saying that PER isn’t going anywhere when the MEL and SYD go non stop.

I know he said that and I'm sure that, at this time, that is what is expected BUT with currently only 50% of passengers orginating in PER, even if you add in the other 10% or so from ADL & others it has gotta be marginal unless they have something else up their sleves such as acually starting CDG or FRA AND they are successful.
IMHO it is currently reasonable to describe the future of the non stop PER-LHR "as unclear" after the east coast non stop happen.

Gemuser
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 4:13 am

TaniTaniwha wrote:
I understand this, however, I'm not sure how this works when a customer's bags miss the flight and then arrive on another, later flight.


That is ok, it is not pre-planned. The plan was for the bags to go with you the whole way. You should not be made aware of this until after you arrived at your destination where the bags were checked to.

Stitch wrote:
[So if QF has on occasion to send the bags on a different (set of) flight(s) due to insufficient available payload weight, that would be okay as the expectation was for both to fly on the same airplane.


They would not plan it that way, they would plan SYD-LHR, with an inflight refile from RASEL to CPH. They would reassess their fuel there, then use HAM, CDG, then your on descent into LHR. 99% of the time they would make LHR, if not they would make a quick technical stop for fuel.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Gemuser
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 4:13 am

Stitch wrote:
redroo wrote:
AJ is on record saying that PER isn’t going anywhere when the MEL and SYD go non stop.


Which seems to make sense as I have heard PER has one of, if not the, largest UK ex-pat community around and therefore O&D should be strong enough to sustain the route without the MEL tag-on.

IMHO depending on the UK expat community in PER to support the non stop is for a short time only, if it is current true. I don't know about PER specifically [or WA in general] but post world war II UK immigration to Australia, as a whole peaked in the 1970s. Family ties do not tend to stand the test of time in this country due to distance and cost, which may be changing but I've seen not evidance of it. Once the people who do the migrating pass on their children are not as close and their grand kids are not interested. [Speaking generally of course there are always exceptions]

Gemuser
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 4:27 am

redroo wrote:
AJ is on record saying that PER isn’t going anywhere when the MEL and SYD go non stop.


Once again AJ proves he is the smartest person in the room. It would have been a real technical marvel to see QF move PER from where it is now.

Stitch wrote:
Which seems to make sense as I have heard PER has one of, if not the, largest UK ex-pat community around and therefore O&D should be strong enough to sustain the route without the MEL tag-on.


LHR slots are very limited, The current QF9 slot will be used by either the SYD or MEL arrival. I assume SYD-LHR will start first, QF 9 will continue via PER, once they have enough frames go direct from MEL.

I would then assume the 789 frames get redeployed trans pacific.

Gemuser wrote:
IMHO depending on the UK expat community in PER to support the non stop is for a short time only, if it is current true.


I think PER will just end up connecting via SIN again.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
TaniTaniwha
Posts: 49
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 4:37 am

zeke wrote:
TaniTaniwha wrote:
I understand this, however, I'm not sure how this works when a customer's bags miss the flight and then arrive on another, later flight.


That is ok, it is not pre-planned. The plan was for the bags to go with you the whole way. You should not be made aware of this until after you arrived at your destination where the bags were checked to.
.


That is true, we were waiting at the carosel when we were informed.
[photoid][/photoid][photoid][/photoid]
 
wangjm777
Posts: 17
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 27, 2019 4:54 am

Does the recent NZ order indicate that the “ER” version of 787-9/-10 is back in the competition for Project Sunrise?

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