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fcogafa
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:44 pm

Maybe Vietnam and Brunei too

ClassicLover wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
travelhound wrote:

From memory there are fourteen airlines that offer a SYD-LAX service. In effect, QANTAS are betting one in fourteen passengers will consider direct flights as an option.

Considering Sydney is a premium heavy market, I suspect there could be demand for such a service.

I assume you meant SYD-LHR. Hmmm... A list from memory of one stop service:
1. QF
2. EK
3. SQ
4. QR
5. EY
6. CX
7. Malaysian
8. Guardia.
9. Thai
10. China Southern
11. AI?

Huh... Only 11 from memory. Who did I forget? I assume more Chinese operators? (I'm asking).

AirAsia is LGW? Please note I am asking if they should be included.

I do not include code shares.


British Airways over Singapore (as is pointed out above)
China Eastern over Shanghai
Air China over Beijing (and Chengdu from 2 April)
Asiana over Seoul
Hainan over Chagsha
Japan Airlines over Tokyo (though you'd need to change NRT to HND)
Korean Air over Seoul
Philippine Airlines over Manila

All of these are options as they serve London Heathrow and Sydney as well as the same stopover city in the middle.
 
smi0006
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:12 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
VV wrote:
I do hope for Qantas there will be enough traffic volume on that route. I am not convinced it would be successful, but it is only an opinion and I know very little about air transport.

Many of you "suspect" there could be a demand for direct flight SYD-LHR with high yield passengers.
My gut feel tells me it might be a risky business to serve that route with direct flight.

Therefore, I am not persuaded they will start that route in 2022.


None of us "suspect" there will be demand for a direct flight. To be quite honest, most of us know there is demand for it.

Qantas would not consider laying out the cash for a fleet of aircraft if they did not think they could make money on it. It's pretty much that simple.

PER-LHR was a test really. The wild success of that - with around 75% of the passengers originating in Perth, a city of less than 2 million people - means that flights from Sydney and Melbourne, both cities with more than twice the population, will work very well. Believe me, the flights will go out full from the east coast.

You really need to be Australian to understand it completely, really.


Haven’t QF already stated, now PER-LHR has been launched this is the first time in 9yeard the route has been profitable? I think that says enough.

LHR is a massive route from AU- with yields across the range. I think the tricky part will be ensuring QFs product matches the premium expectations that customers traveling non-stop will desire. Thinking more catering and amenities and soft product over hard product.

JFK-SYD/MEL will most likely be operated in an AA / QF JV world. I imagine this route will be included so costs and revenue will be shared, shares the risk also.
 
VV
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:32 pm

tealnz wrote:
VV wrote:
This is purely an opinion, but I do not think it is a viable direct route.
In any case, we will have the answer in seven years.
For now, it is an interesting case for discussion.

Non-stop point to point ULH is at the heart of QF's future business strategy. It is not an experiment: the DFW service has shown the additional yields available from non-stop ULH services offering greater convenience while PER-LHR is, as pointed out further up the thread, generating remarkable load factors and profits. It is a mystery why so many a.netters are in denial on the appeal of premium ULH non-stop services.


It is tue that I do not know at all what QFA's business strategy is, but in my opinion, SYD-LHR direct is not necessarily a good thing.
Maybe it would wok out well once QFA will have finished studying the economics.

Or maybe they would decide to not stat the experiment in 2022. In my opinion, we need to wait until the end of the year when they will finally close the deal with Airbus or Boeing. It is likely they would just "delay" again the targeted first SYD-LHR direct flight to a "later date".
 
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Stitch
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:56 pm

VV wrote:
Maybe it would wok out well once QFA will have finished studying the economics.


One imagines they have done just that before they bothered to engage the OEMs to see how their proposals mesh with QFA's internal analysis of what they need from said OEMs.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:00 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Maybe Vietnam and Brunei too

ClassicLover wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I assume you meant SYD-LHR. Hmmm... A list from memory of one stop service:
1. QF
2. EK
3. SQ
4. QR
5. EY
6. CX
7. Malaysian
8. Guardia.
9. Thai
10. China Southern
11. AI?

Huh... Only 11 from memory. Who did I forget? I assume more Chinese operators? (I'm asking).

AirAsia is LGW? Please note I am asking if they should be included.

I do not include code shares.


British Airways over Singapore (as is pointed out above)
China Eastern over Shanghai
Air China over Beijing (and Chengdu from 2 April)
Asiana over Seoul
Hainan over Chagsha
Japan Airlines over Tokyo (though you'd need to change NRT to HND)
Korean Air over Seoul
Philippine Airlines over Manila

All of these are options as they serve London Heathrow and Sydney as well as the same stopover city in the middle.


Vietnam yes, Royal Brunei only flies from MEL (and soon from BNE), but there's also NH over TYO, AC over YVR and probably up to 3 US carriers over LAX/SFO/IAH.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:15 pm

It is hard to imagine LHR-SYD nonstop failing if there is the aircraft for it.

While competition on the 1-stop LHR-SYD route is brutal because so many airlines can serve it, volume is very high, and there is also a very high number of premium passengers. Based on previous ULH experience one assumes that a non-trivial number of those premium passengers will be willing to pay at least something extra for nonstop service. And the nonstop will require a relatively sparse configuration. The numbers ought to be there to have an aircraft with 80 or more J seats sell out J at high fare levels on a near-daily basis. That alone would pay for the flight, including some profit, and revenue from the additional 100 or so Y seats will be gravy.

The expense to add a fleet type is not trivial and I'm sure ability to use the same, or common, aircraft on non-ULH routes is a major factor in this decision. On the one hand, the 777-9 is an awfully nice 747-400 replacement, and in the near term might have revenue potential superior to the A350. On the other hand, ULH examples of the A350-1000 would be much more useful than 777-8s once there is some new player in the ULH space, as they could be converted back to mostly normal A350-1000s and operate more or less seamlessly as part of a larger A350 fleet.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:09 am

ClassicLover wrote:
You really need to be Australian to understand it completely, really.

No you don't, you just need a modicum of common sense:
the airline nor OEMs wouldn't be working this hard to effectuate any of this, if they didn't see a financial benefit (and/or staving of a financial deficit) by doing so, versus the option of the status quo.



VV wrote:
It is a mystery why so many a.netters are in denial on the appeal of premium ULH non-stop services.

ANSWER: because most of the ones bitching are keyboard warriors who've never actually (or more importantly: needed to) do such flights.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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cpd
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:34 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
You really need to be Australian to understand it completely, really.

No you don't, you just need a modicum of common sense:
the airline nor OEMs wouldn't be working this hard to effectuate any of this, if they didn't see a financial benefit (and/or staving of a financial deficit) by doing so, versus the option of the status quo.



VV wrote:
It is a mystery why so many a.netters are in denial on the appeal of premium ULH non-stop services.

ANSWER: because most of the ones bitching are keyboard warriors who've never actually (or more importantly: needed to) do such flights.


Airlines and manufacturers pushed very hard to make the A380 work, and it was just a prestige project in the end that failed badly. It might work, it might not - I'm suspecting it's a risky proposition and hope it doesn't end up being another prestige project.

I'm one of those who could do these flights - although Sydney to London is of little use to me, but something like a Sydney to Paris or Sydney to Geneva would be very suitable and useful and would make me switch away from Emirates. So as for those keyboard warriors...
 
travelhound
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:37 am

...and I think part of the answer is in your reply. Many QF frequent flyers fly different airlines on the route, not because they don't want to fly QANTAS, but because QF can't offer the connections / schedules they require. Once QF expand their market offering there will be QF customers willing to choose this flight over their current arrangements.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:24 am

There's a QF-generated infographic been shared in the Australian thread which says PER-LHR is the longest sector in the QF network, but also the route with the highest pax satisfaction rating. I think that goes to show there's demand for non-stop sectors to LHR and no doubt JFK as well.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:52 am

cpd wrote:
Airlines and manufacturers pushed very hard to make the A380 work, and it was just a prestige project in the end that failed badly. It might work, it might not - I'm suspecting it's a risky proposition and hope it doesn't end up being another prestige project.

I'm not sure that that's an accurate categorization of what happened with the A380 though.

As we all know, it was designed to move mass amount of pax from A to C, but via B. Its fate was however sealed when (1) new technology opened alternatives to what it could provide (e.g. moving from A to C with no need for B), and (2) they did so at equivalent or lower cost, while (3) allowing airlines to charge a premium for the nonstop to a smaller market with fewer competitors.

The A380 (and the laughably impotent 748i) could not survive that tripartite assault.

****************************
The same cannot be said for ULH though. Until we invent a teleporter, nothing's going to get the mass amounts of people (that QF reasonably believes exists) from Oz to Europe faster than a nonstop.

And if these new generation airframes and/or engines prove their mettle, then it's quite possible that nothing's going to do so as efficiently either; rendering it just another evolution in the longhaul market, similar to the past.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
VV
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:17 am

LAX772LR wrote:

... snipped ...
VV wrote:
It is a mystery why so many a.netters are in denial on the appeal of premium ULH non-stop services.

ANSWER: because most of the ones bitching are keyboard warriors who've never actually (or more importantly: needed to) do such flights.


First, the quoted text is NOT mine.

Second, my opinion is that SYD-LHR direct flight is not necessarily a good idea, but that's an opinion because I know very little, if at all, Qantas' business or even air transport in general.

They may decide to do it anyway and if they can make a lot of money of that direct flights then it is good for them, but my skepticism remains.

Perhaps they would "delay" the first direct flight SYD-LHR to a "later date" beyond 2022. We will know the answer at the end of this year.
 
braddmlewis
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Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:14 am

Not sure this has been posted anywhere else but it looks like either Boeing or Airbus have stepped up. Any thoughts on which way ?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busines ... 6b3382fc52


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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777222LR
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:19 am

My bet is on the 777-8
 
PHLspecial
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:21 am

777222LR wrote:
My bet is on the 777-8

My bet is the A350-1000ULR because of the lighter weight. One of us is going to get it right :bouncy:
 
drmlnr1
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:25 am

777-8 is my guess
Flying is relaxing!
 
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cpd
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:29 am

I heard it was a go earlier this year at an industry conference. No word on the lucky manufacturer, but it was confirmed as a definite go ahead.

My bet is that the choice will be a Boeing or Airbus. ;)
 
N91
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:29 am

PHLspecial wrote:
777222LR wrote:
My bet is on the 777-8

My bet is the A350-1000ULR because of the lighter weight. One of us is going to get it right :bouncy:

Inb4 CR929 is chosen
 
timpdx
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:32 am

I say 777-8. I think the extra freight will sway this in the B direction. But, really, its a coin flip unless this is part of a larger decision for the 777-9 or A359/10 in terms of a bigger picture/long term fleet decision to eventually replace the A380 down the road.
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flee
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:38 am

timpdx wrote:
I say 777-8. I think the extra freight will sway this in the B direction. But, really, its a coin flip unless this is part of a larger decision for the 777-9 or A359/10 in terms of a bigger picture/long term fleet decision to eventually replace the A380 down the road.

I think QF was planning an exit strategy for its A380s and the manufacturer that offers the best trade in or buyback package for the QF A380s will probably win. The project Sunrise fleet will probably be part of a bigger fleet that will replace the whalejets.
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 3:44 am

Oh.. another Sunrise thread with nothing new.

I still think the A350 is the favourite, particularly given the A380 order cancellation caused by the program closure (QF still had 8 firm which it didn't want), and also all the discussion about underfloor facilities (where Airbus has more experience)

Fiji Air (46% owned by Qantas, although managed very separately) just ordered two A350s but I don't think you can draw much from that
 
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777Jet
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 11:32 am

seabosdca wrote:
On the other hand, ULH examples of the A350-1000 would be much more useful than 777-8s once there is some new player in the ULH space, as they could be converted back to mostly normal A350-1000s and operate more or less seamlessly as part of a larger A350 fleet.


That versatility is why QF will probably go with the 35K. QF wanted a plane that can be used on other missions. It's more versatile and less risky. They want a better pax experience - 8 Y abreast in the A350 will offer that. Then there are the A380 deposits. As much as I want to see a 777 in QF colors, I think QF will never fly a 777 despite being one of the airlines consulting with the original 777 design. Airbus will win this order. I hope I'm wrong though.
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 12:14 pm

777Jet wrote:
That versatility is why QF will probably go with the 35K. QF wanted a plane that can be used on other missions. It's more versatile and less risky. They want a better pax experience - 8 Y abreast in the A350 will offer that. Then there are the A380 deposits. As much as I want to see a 777 in QF colors, I think QF will never fly a 777 despite being one of the airlines consulting with the original 777 design. Airbus will win this order. I hope I'm wrong though.


Also if QF did go with the 777, BA could steal their thunder an operate the A350 over the route offering faster flight times. If people are taking the flight for the faster times, any improvement would have to have some tangible value to the same passengers.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 1:06 pm

zeke wrote:
777Jet wrote:
That versatility is why QF will probably go with the 35K. QF wanted a plane that can be used on other missions. It's more versatile and less risky. They want a better pax experience - 8 Y abreast in the A350 will offer that. Then there are the A380 deposits. As much as I want to see a 777 in QF colors, I think QF will never fly a 777 despite being one of the airlines consulting with the original 777 design. Airbus will win this order. I hope I'm wrong though.


Also if QF did go with the 777, BA could steal their thunder an operate the A350 over the route offering faster flight times. If people are taking the flight for the faster times, any improvement would have to have some tangible value to the same passengers.


How much faster will the A350 be on a route like this?
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Mrakula
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 3:37 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
zeke wrote:
777Jet wrote:
That versatility is why QF will probably go with the 35K. QF wanted a plane that can be used on other missions. It's more versatile and less risky. They want a better pax experience - 8 Y abreast in the A350 will offer that. Then there are the A380 deposits. As much as I want to see a 777 in QF colors, I think QF will never fly a 777 despite being one of the airlines consulting with the original 777 design. Airbus will win this order. I hope I'm wrong though.


Also if QF did go with the 777, BA could steal their thunder an operate the A350 over the route offering faster flight times. If people are taking the flight for the faster times, any improvement would have to have some tangible value to the same passengers.


How much faster will the A350 be on a route like this?


I guess the 77X will cruise at same speed as A350 with new wing and engines.

Cheers
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 3:44 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
How much faster will the A350 be on a route like this?


1-2 minutes per hour of flight time.


Mrakula wrote:
I guess the 77X will cruise at same speed as A350 with new wing and engines.


You guessed wrong
Last edited by zeke on Mon May 06, 2019 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Mrakula
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 3:57 pm

zeke wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
How much faster will the A350 be on a route like this?


3-4 minutes per hour of flight time.


Mrakula wrote:
I guess the 77X will cruise at same speed as A350 with new wing and engines.


You guessed wrong


I did not found any ifnormation about cruise speed of 77X. 777 classic cruise at 0.84 M, so with new wings and engines it is possible to raise cruise speed to same speed like 787 or A350.

Ceers
 
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zeke
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 3:59 pm

The current 777 in Econ spend a lot of time below 0.84
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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AECM
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 4:31 pm

Talking about payload Qantas wants a plane that can move how much ton's between SYD and LHR / JFK? 35T?
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 4:49 pm

No less than that, they were talking 250-300 passengers
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
jfk777
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 4:53 pm

Is there a reason why Qantas can't operate A350 and 777-8/9 as many Asia Pacific airlines are doing. The QF A330 fleet are no youngsters and are about at the 3/4 point in their Qantas lives. The A350 is great for Asian destinations and long haul routes needing less capacity while 777-9 is definitely the A380 replacement plane. For the first time in 50 years Qantas doesn't have to buy a 747 or an A380 they can tailor the plane to the mission.
 
tomcat
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 5:21 pm

From the link posted a few hours ago:
"The long haul project, dubbed Project Sunrise, threw up complications for the airline including regulations that limit the length of a single flight for a pilot as well as passenger entertainment and health."

The last part about the passenger entertainment and health seems to lean toward Airbus, with their proposed belly amenities.

Also this quote is quite ecstatic about Airbus:
“The reaction of businesses was huge — Airbus said it was a bit like the space race, the race to the moon; that’s how they’re treating it in their organisation.”

I'll get my popcorn ready for Le Bourget.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 5:29 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Is there a reason why Qantas can't operate A350 and 777-8/9 as many Asia Pacific airlines are doing. The QF A330 fleet are no youngsters and are about at the 3/4 point in their Qantas lives. The A350 is great for Asian destinations and long haul routes needing less capacity while 777-9 is definitely the A380 replacement plane. For the first time in 50 years Qantas doesn't have to buy a 747 or an A380 they can tailor the plane to the mission.


The only problem is the B787 Qantas group currently owns in service with JetStar. I think at some point the long haul with JetStar will be scaled back considerably and the B787 will be transferred back to QF to replace the A332s.

I think Qantas may get A359 for A380 cancellation, which will be used for replacement of B744/A333/A380, and then go for B777-8 for the project sunrise.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 5:39 pm

777Jet wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
On the other hand, ULH examples of the A350-1000 would be much more useful than 777-8s once there is some new player in the ULH space, as they could be converted back to mostly normal A350-1000s and operate more or less seamlessly as part of a larger A350 fleet.


That versatility is why QF will probably go with the 35K. QF wanted a plane that can be used on other missions. It's more versatile and less risky. They want a better pax experience - 8 Y abreast in the A350 will offer that. Then there are the A380 deposits. As much as I want to see a 777 in QF colors, I think QF will never fly a 777 despite being one of the airlines consulting with the original 777 design. Airbus will win this order. I hope I'm wrong though.


I don't agree. The aircrafts need to be replaced in future years are:
18 A332
10 A333
12 A380
8 B744
total: 48 (28 medium sized and 20 VLA).

There are 6 more B789 coming and my personal belief is that B788 may get transferred back to Qantas in near future (currently 11 with JQ). So that 17 aircraft may be used as 1-1 replacement for A332.

Then we have 10 A333/8 B744 and 12 A380 will meet retirement in next decades. Basically 30 aircrafts.

I think Qantas is very conservative in fleet planning. My personal guess is that 20-25 A359 will be added to replace the above fleet. And then add 10 or so B777-8 for Project sunrise and to replace the VLAs.

If Qantas is to order 15 A35K for project sunrise and harmonised the rest of the fleet, then I think the current B789 option will be exercised and 15-20 will be converted to firm order.
 
VV
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 5:50 pm

Can the A380 do SYD-LHR with 300 passengers?
 
pabloeing
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 5:59 pm

The BA B777X deal open the mind about this.....The B778 is the ideal choice....and in the price...like BA.....Boeing will fight very hard.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon May 06, 2019 6:30 pm

Folks, be polite or expect to be banned. Discuss the topic and not other users.
You know nothing John Snow.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 7:27 pm

Boy, this thread seems to have attracted the fanboys.

chonetsao wrote:
I think Qantas is very conservative in fleet planning. My personal guess is that 20-25 A359 will be added to replace the above fleet. And then add 10 or so B777-8 for Project sunrise and to replace the VLAs.

If Qantas is to order 15 A35K for project sunrise and harmonised the rest of the fleet, then I think the current B789 option will be exercised and 15-20 will be converted to firm order.


Very odd forecast IMO, although I agree Qantas under Joyce is deeply conservative with their orders. I'm not sure why Qantas would have any reason to order A350s if they are not selected for Project Sunrise. I see two possible outcomes:

- Airbus wins Project Sunrise: the long-haul fleet eventually will consist of A350-1000 and 787-9 only, with some 787-8 possibly being used as regional aircraft. The balance between A350 and 787 would be determined over time by growth forecasts.

- Boeing wins Project Sunrise: the long-haul fleet will consist of 777-9 for trunk routes, 777-8 for ULH, and 787-9. Any A350 order is unlikely.

The Airbus-wins scenario allows more network development flexibility, while the Boeing-wins scenario allows maximum revenue per slot on slot-restricted routes. An interesting exercise for the green eyeshades, no doubt.
 
waly777
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 7:48 pm

zeke wrote:
The current 777 in Econ spend a lot of time below 0.84

This won't be the current 777. How about you wait and see like everyone else? It hasn't even flown yet.
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ER757
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Re: Qantas Project Sunrise Close to a Go

Mon May 06, 2019 10:37 pm

braddmlewis wrote:
Not sure this has been posted anywhere else but it looks like either Boeing or Airbus have stepped up. Any thoughts on which way ?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busines ... 6b3382fc52


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The article indicates Joyce expects the route to be in operation by 2022 - that would seem to favor the A350 due to the proposed EIS date of the 778. Any delays and 2022 would be off the table - unless of course Boeing is offering some souped-up version of the 779
 
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 12:40 am

waly777 wrote:
This won't be the current 777. How about you wait and see like everyone else? It hasn't even flown yet.


The wing isn’t changing that much, it will be like the 747-8, and 737NG
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 12:51 am

jfk777 wrote:
Which airplane is it that Qantas uses on their Perth to London flight, the 787-9 of course. Both are used on a SFO to Singapore flights by UA & SQ. SQ uses a specially modified A350 from Newark to SIN for 18 hours with a heavy J class and NO y class seats, less payload more range why is that so amazing ? The A350-900 can keep up with the 787-9 and 777W but it doesn't fly further.


Any yet the 77W, 77L, and all 787s are not even being considered.

The A350 is.
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jupiter2
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 1:06 am

zeke wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Which airplane is it that Qantas uses on their Perth to London flight, the 787-9 of course. Both are used on a SFO to Singapore flights by UA & SQ. SQ uses a specially modified A350 from Newark to SIN for 18 hours with a heavy J class and NO y class seats, less payload more range why is that so amazing ? The A350-900 can keep up with the 787-9 and 777W but it doesn't fly further.


Any yet the 77W, 77L, and all 787s are not even being considered.
The A350 is.


Well maybe because the 77W and 77L won't be in production and aren't being offered may have something to do with that. As for the 787, it isn't big enough for the task specified, so why does anybody mention it ?
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 1:19 am

jupiter2 wrote:

Well maybe because the 77W and 77L won't be in production and aren't being offered may have something to do with that. As for the 787, it isn't big enough for the task specified, so why does anybody mention it ?


I was responding to the poster that was saying the the A350 doesn’t do anything different than what the 77W or 787 does. If the 77W/77L/787 could be doing this city pair profitability, QF would have already started it.

How many threads do we read on here normally by the same half dozen people saying the 787 is a direct competitor to the A350 ? Which is it, is the A350 actually more capable than the 787 or not ?
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 1:34 am

zeke wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:

Well maybe because the 77W and 77L won't be in production and aren't being offered may have something to do with that. As for the 787, it isn't big enough for the task specified, so why does anybody mention it ?


I was responding to the poster that was saying the the A350 doesn’t do anything different than what the 77W or 787 does. If the 77W/77L/787 could be doing this city pair profitability, QF would have already started it.

How many threads do we read on here normally by the same half dozen people saying the 787 is a direct competitor to the A350 ? Which is it, is the A350 actually more capable than the 787 or not ?


For the vast majority of routes there is no way a 787 should be considered as a direct competitor to the 350, with the exception of perhaps the 787-10 to the 359 on say trans Atlantic, but that is too narrow over all. The 789 is being abused on the ULH flights it does now and in no way should be able to carry what the 359 does over the same sectors, really not sure why anyone should expect it too.

If ANY aircraft available now was able to do the routes requested profitably, QF would have them now, as would a lot of other airlines. Let's face it, this request is going to the extreme of what is available now, QF and both manufacturers will be making reductions from the original specs, they really weren't realistic with what is available at present. QF will get the best that is available that comes the closest to their original request, whichever manufacturer it is.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 1:35 am

I have always said the 777-8 has this in the bag.

Pavement loadings are not important when operating from megahubs.

The A350-1000 would need huge modifications to fly this route. The small MTOW increases mentioned here are not enough. At higher weights the initial cruise altitude will be worse which increases fuel burn for the entire flight. I estimate a 320T MTOW is needed to make project sunrise work with a reasonable cabin. Qantas wants to make this profitable so they need a proper cabin not 100 business class seats.

Any modifications to the A350-1000 would cost hundreds of millions of dollars. So project sunrise would definitinely be a massive financial loss for Airbus. Chasing this order would definitely point to bragging rights.

I do not see Airbus A350's slotting between the 787 and 777X. Qantas does not need such overlap.

I expect the Qantas deposits for the A380 to be used on a massive A321 order to replace the 737's. I expect current Asian destinations to get flights from additional Australian cities.
 
rjmf22
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Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 1:45 am

waly777 wrote:
zeke wrote:
The current 777 in Econ spend a lot of time below 0.84

This won't be the current 777. How about you wait and see like everyone else? It hasn't even flown yet.


My thoughts exactly...
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 2:12 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I have always said the 777-8 has this in the bag.


And yet QF didn’t order it, they wanted to look at the A350 as well.

RJMAZ wrote:
Pavement loadings are not important when operating from megahubs.


The pavement loading was presented to show the growth available in the A350, many Boeing fan boys say the A350 could not increase MTOW further due to gear.

RJMAZ wrote:
The A350-1000 would need huge modifications to fly this route. The small MTOW increases mentioned here are not enough. At higher weights the initial cruise altitude will be worse which increases fuel burn for the entire flight. I estimate a 320T MTOW is needed to make project sunrise work with a reasonable cabin. Qantas wants to make this profitable so they need a proper cabin not 100 business class seats.


The A350-1000 has already gone from a 308 MTOW to 316 MTOW (2.6%) and still maintains the ability to go straight to FL350/360 at MTOW.

RJMAZ wrote:
Any modifications to the A350-1000 would cost hundreds of millions of dollars. So project sunrise would definitinely be a massive financial loss for Airbus. Chasing this order would definitely point to bragging rights.


Where would these hundreds of millions of dollars be spent ? The paper MTOW increase to 320 tonnes ? The aero improvements already flying on the -900 ? Modifications already in service for the ULR ? The below deck toilet modules already flying with Lufthansa ?

RJMAZ wrote:
I expect the Qantas deposits for the A380 to be used on a massive A321 order to replace the 737's. I expect current Asian destinations to get flights from additional Australian cities.


Qantas placed an order for 99 A320neo series in 2011, they have been moving flying away from QF aircraft domestically.
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:23 am

zeke wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:

Well maybe because the 77W and 77L won't be in production and aren't being offered may have something to do with that. As for the 787, it isn't big enough for the task specified, so why does anybody mention it ?


I was responding to the poster that was saying the the A350 doesn’t do anything different than what the 77W or 787 does. If the 77W/77L/787 could be doing this city pair profitability, QF would have already started it.

How many threads do we read on here normally by the same half dozen people saying the 787 is a direct competitor to the A350 ? Which is it, is the A350 actually more capable than the 787 or not ?



Yes, the A359 is more capable than the 787. It is also 36,000 pounds heavier. You pay for that increased capability.

The 778 is more capable than the A350, yet it also has a weight penalty. You cannot have your cake and eat it too.
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aerohottie
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Tue May 07, 2019 3:28 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
zeke wrote:
jupiter2 wrote:

Well maybe because the 77W and 77L won't be in production and aren't being offered may have something to do with that. As for the 787, it isn't big enough for the task specified, so why does anybody mention it ?


I was responding to the poster that was saying the the A350 doesn’t do anything different than what the 77W or 787 does. If the 77W/77L/787 could be doing this city pair profitability, QF would have already started it.

How many threads do we read on here normally by the same half dozen people saying the 787 is a direct competitor to the A350 ? Which is it, is the A350 actually more capable than the 787 or not ?



Yes, the A359 is more capable than the 787. It is also 36,000 pounds heavier. You pay for that increased capability.

The 778 is more capable than the A350, yet it also has a weight penalty. You cannot have your cake and eat it too.

Potentially you can, depending on the delta between OEW and MTOW, and how efficient an aircraft is at operating within this delta
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