Future of Bombardier Aerospace

workhorse · Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:34 am

With their flagship project integrated into Airbus, what is left of Bombardier Aerospace?

Well, there's Mirabel, where despite the fact that most of it is Airbus now, there's still some activity with the CRJs that remain to be delivered and the business jets (Challengers).

There's Downsview with Q400s and Globals.

There's Wichita with Learjet.

The CRJ are finished soon. The Qs are struggling. So, what will happen? Are we to expect some sort of consolidation of the business jet business?

wakymike · Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:58 am

The CRJs being finished soon is not a given at all. The current CRJs, as well as the Embraer E1, will continue to sell for some years. In a few years, i guess, there will be a new generation of turbofans available to power them, which will be more reliable than the current geared turbofans on the Embraer E2. As you can forget about chinese, japanese or russian contenders, there will only be Bombardier and Embraer left, enough market potential to develop a new CRJ.

Someone83 · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:10 am

wakymike wrote:
The CRJs being finished soon is not a given at all. The current CRJs, as well as the Embraer E1, will continue to sell for some years. In a few years, i guess, there will be a new generation of turbofans available to power them, which will be more reliable than the current geared turbofans on the Embraer E2. As you can forget about chinese, japanese or russian contenders, there will only be Bombardier and Embraer left, enough market potential to develop a new CRJ.

The CRJ future will also depends on US regionals scope clauses. Which right now probably won’t go away

workhorse · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:19 am

As much as I like the plane (especially the latest variants), other than a few top-up orders, honestly, I don't see much future for the CRJ or even a "CRJ-neo". I just don't see it compete against the E-jets, the MRJ, the Sukhoi (on some markets) and, last but not least, against its own "neighbor" from Mirabel.

So, what will Bombardier do?

workhorse · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:28 am

Someone83 wrote:
The CRJ future will also depends on US regionals scope clauses. Which right now probably won’t go away

Don't forget that that the E-Jets are now going to be a Boeing product.

leghorn · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:34 am

Q400 improvements include extended A and C check intervals make it a much better proposition than it was even 2 years ago.

https://leehamnews.com/2018/08/21/analy ... 400-model/
with the sale of the CS100/130 they gave up all aspirations of being mainstream but they should be able to become profitable.in niche commercial aviation for many years to come.
If the next P&W engine can bolt on without too much alteration that the life of the Q400 could be extended still further. the customers are there to be won, it is just that ATR have won most of them so up to now.

wakymike · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:47 am

There will be no new Q400-version. The Qs' production i believe will end 2023 with the shutdown of the Downsview site.

workhorse · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:53 am

leghorn wrote:
Q400 improvements include extended A and C check intervals make it a much better proposition than it was even 2 years ago.

Good news. I really wish them well. BTW, how close the teams working on the Qs and on the Globals are in Downsview? Do they feel like working on different programs of the same company or like different companies?

Dutchy · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:53 am

Interesting question indeed. My guess would be that they will continue to sell their current CRJ and Q-lines, but concentrate on the business jets division. No new investments in new aircraft for the foreseeable future.

workhorse · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:54 am

wakymike wrote:
There will be no new Q400-version. The Qs' production i believe will end 2023 with the shutdown of the Downsview site.

Is that official? And what will become of the Globals then?

leghorn · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:55 am

I've opened up a query on technical side. I figure that FlyBE's maintenance bill will drop markedly from £71 million per year and they can afford to have one less plane in the fleet based just on that one change to A/C checks. I'll see if my supposings get shot down or not.

wakymike · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:56 am

Boeing i think is not interested in the Ejets. Sooner or later they will develop a contender to the A220 under the Boeing brand and shut down the Ejets. Bombardier will then have all the time to make a new CRJ. Btw, what is MRJ? These planes will never ever succeed. The Sukhoi Jet? LOL! Not worth mentioning.

wakymike · Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:05 pm

workhorse wrote:
wakymike wrote:
There will be no new Q400-version. The Qs' production i believe will end 2023 with the shutdown of the Downsview site.

Is that official? And what will become of the Globals then?

@ workhorse
It is said the Globals' production may go to Mirabel as well as there's plenty of space over there.

Someone83 · Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:22 pm

workhorse wrote:
Someone83 wrote:
The CRJ future will also depends on US regionals scope clauses. Which right now probably won’t go away

Don't forget that that the E-Jets are now going to be a Boeing product.

Yes, but the E2s are stille to big and heavy for the scope clauses

baje427 · Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:39 pm

I think they will stick to executive jets and discontinue the Q400 and CRJ lines.

GalaxyFlyer · Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:16 pm

There is a multi-year backlog on Globals with two new models announced at Geneva. The $72 million G7500 going into service. They’ve delivered 800 Globals, 1200+ Challengers in the last 15 years. They’ll do fine in their original business—bizjets. Remember, since the first CRJ was delivered, they have sold more business jets than airliners.

GF

SteelChair · Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:31 pm

Someone83 wrote:
workhorse wrote:
Someone83 wrote:
The CRJ future will also depends on US regionals scope clauses. Which right now probably won’t go away

Don't forget that that the E-Jets are now going to be a Boeing product.

Yes, but the E2s are stille to big and heavy for the scope clauses

And too small, at 4 abreast, for cost effective operations at the relatively higher cost majors.

workhorse · Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:12 pm

wakymike wrote:
Boeing i think is not interested in the Ejets. Sooner or later they will develop a contender to the A220 under the Boeing brand and shut down the Ejets. Bombardier will then have all the time to make a new CRJ. Btw, what is MRJ? These planes will never ever succeed. The Sukhoi Jet? LOL! Not worth mentioning.

You should remember that quote from a Boeing executive who, talking about Airbus in the 70's, said something like: "Don't worry about them, they'll just build a hundred and go out of business." (Does anyone have the exact quote and the name of the author, BTW?)

MRJ? They screwed up big time, but they have deep pockets and they want badly to break into this business. I'll wait.

Sukhoi? If they get their act together on support, they might sell some in the markets outside of North America and Western Europe. And even when they don't sell, they contribute to the general "over-crowding" of this market segment, pushing prices down (and thus making less likely serious investment into it by established actors).

GalaxyFlyer · Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:16 pm

There’s probably room for the CRJ, but no room for a second generation of RJs. Regional jets will turn out to be a dead end-killed by scope clauses, airport congestion, pilot shortages; all of which will cut services to the airports RJs were built for.

GF

MIflyer12 · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:07 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
There’s probably room for the CRJ, but no room for a second generation of RJs. Regional jets will turn out to be a dead end-killed by scope clauses, airport congestion, pilot shortages; all of which will cut services to the airports RJs were built for.

GF

You can't even imagine the destination cuts the networks of AA/DL/UA would suffer domestically were the smallest plane an A220. (Compare the domestic route networks of AA/DL/UA to Southwest.) There will be a next-gen RJ that fits scope clauses - one way or another. It won't be from Bombardier. In commercial aviation BBD bet it all on the C Series -- and lost.

CFRPwingALbody · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:21 pm

I think there are three likely scenarios.
A) Continuation as is. Mayority of profit is generated building business jets. And <100pax CRJ and Q400 are produced in Mirabel and Montreal. I expect the Downview site will be closed.
B) Bombardier will only build private and business jets. The Mirabel site will be fully utilised by the CSALP (Airbus Canada), for the CSeries/A220.
C) With one project, replacements will be developed for both the Q400 & CRJ's. I'm thinking about a low-wing, T- or U-tale with rear engines. This requires a new lighter weight core used with a ducted and un-ducted fan. (The current GTF PW1000s are to heavy for scopeclause, only BBD was smart enough to notice this.) This new 50-100 pax capacity plane family will be build in the CRJ factory. Montreal will focus on business/private jets. (And conversion conversion of the A220 & TP/TF.)
Possibly the CSALP / Airbus Bombardier Canada can be used for a blend of scenario B & C. I think that would be the best outcome. Because the 50-100seat market gets a new generation of aircraft's.
For this to work, ATR must be allowed (by Airbus) to develop a ATR-600 (CN235/C295) series replacement (and ...). This is a high wing, TP wing mounted in civilian and military version.
(I agree the last scenario is utopian, thus very unlikely. But one can dream, right!?)

CFRPwingALbody · Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:41 pm

I think BBD is marketing the Q400 very well. The 90-seat (improved) Q400 is more usefully configured than the ATR's. Two door boarding and faster flight speed lead to shorter flight times. The higher fuel burn is offset by more flights per day. I think they shouldn't have discontinued Q300 production. The only problem with it is the reliability of the landing gear.
The CRJ's are also very good in my opinion. Though there is room for improvement. Cabin height and width, and newer engines.

GalaxyFlyer · Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:59 am

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MIflyer12 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
There’s probably room for the CRJ, but no room for a second generation of RJs. Regional jets will turn out to be a dead end-killed by scope clauses, airport congestion, pilot shortages; all of which will cut services to the airports RJs were built for.

GF

You can't even imagine the destination cuts the networks of AA/DL/UA would suffer domestically were the smallest plane an A220. (Compare the domestic route networks of AA/DL/UA to Southwest.) There will be a next-gen RJ that fits scope clauses - one way or another. It won't be from Bombardier. In commercial aviation BBD bet it all on the C Series -- and lost.

True enough on the C-Series, not because it’s a bad airplane, but BBD was undercapitalized for the project. Techanically near perfect, financial disaster. Within current scope clauses, 76 seats and 86,000#, its hard to imagine a much more efficient design at a marketable price. A clean sheet design is likely too expensive to make a business case. New frame, new engines are costly and the current market size won’t justify it. It’s possible half of the current RJ-only routes will be abandoned in the face of crew shortages. Who needs CLT-GSO, BDL-EWR or ORD-CMI.

GF

jghealey · Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:24 am

wakymike wrote:
workhorse wrote:
wakymike wrote:
There will be no new Q400-version. The Qs' production i believe will end 2023 with the shutdown of the Downsview site.

Is that official? And what will become of the Globals then?

@ workhorse
It is said the Globals' production may go to Mirabel as well as there's plenty of space over there.

Q400 production will most likely move elsewhere, I doubt they'll just end it as the Downsview site is closed, they are looking for a replacement site. Not sure where they could build them though.

globetrotter94 · Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
There’s probably room for the CRJ, but no room for a second generation of RJs. Regional jets will turn out to be a dead end-killed by scope clauses, airport congestion, pilot shortages; all of which will cut services to the airports RJs were built for.

GF

You can't even imagine the destination cuts the networks of AA/DL/UA would suffer domestically were the smallest plane an A220. (Compare the domestic route networks of AA/DL/UA to Southwest.) There will be a next-gen RJ that fits scope clauses - one way or another. It won't be from Bombardier. In commercial aviation BBD bet it all on the C Series -- and lost.

There already is one (prototypes coming out soon)--the MRJ70.

GalaxyFlyer · Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:43 pm

At its, at least, 2,600# too heavy, so there’s that. Shrinks rarely work.

GF

anxo75 · Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:33 pm

wakymike wrote:
Boeing i think is not interested in the Ejets. Sooner or later they will develop a contender to the A220 under the Boeing brand and shut down the Ejets. Bombardier will then have all the time to make a new CRJ. Btw, what is MRJ? These planes will never ever succeed. The Sukhoi Jet? LOL! Not worth mentioning.

Not worth mentioning because the SSJ is a far better regional plane than CRJ? I agree...

GalaxyFlyer · Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:35 pm

Oh yeah, the SSJ is so great that it’s escaped the attention of just about every carrier.

GF

trpmb6 · Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:38 pm

I'd like to see BBD do something with Lear Jet. They have been sitting pretty idle over there for a while. Either sell it off or get working on a new product to keep your customer base. The lower end of the business jet market seems to be opening up with Textron focusing on bigger jets at the moment. I think there is room in the market Lear Jet used to command pretty well but has since mostly disappeared.

GalaxyFlyer · Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:47 pm

The Learjet sales problem has been runway performance compared to Citation’s perf. That and the market for light jets is stalled. It is a slow market and better to invest in a Challenger 600-series replacement. No one has offered enough money to take LJ apparently

GF

workhorse · Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:31 pm

jghealey wrote:
Not sure where they could build them though.

YYJ?

yyztpa · Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:44 pm

wakymike wrote:
workhorse wrote:
wakymike wrote:
There will be no new Q400-version. The Qs' production i believe will end 2023 with the shutdown of the Downsview site.

Is that official? And what will become of the Globals then?

@ workhorse
It is said the Globals' production may go to Mirabel as well as there's plenty of space over there.

Let's just say your comments on both Q and Global plans is not based on any research:
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... on-pearson

anxo75 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:22 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Oh yeah, the SSJ is so great that it’s escaped the attention of just about every carrier.

GF

Have you ever heard of "politics"? What about "monopolies"?
I mean, shouldn't be praising russians for making planes, against all odds?

queb · Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:03 am

anxo75 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Oh yeah, the SSJ is so great that it’s escaped the attention of just about every carrier.

GF

Have you ever heard of "politics"? What about "monopolies"?
I mean, shouldn't be praising russians for making planes, against all odds?

https://airinsight.com/interjet-and-suk ... the-mc-21/

anxo75 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:19 am

queb wrote:
anxo75 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Oh yeah, the SSJ is so great that it’s escaped the attention of just about every carrier.

GF

Have you ever heard of "politics"? What about "monopolies"?
I mean, shouldn't be praising russians for making planes, against all odds?

https://airinsight.com/interjet-and-suk ... the-mc-21/

It's the fist civil aircraft ever designed by sukhoi...You would expect some support-related troubles.

SamYeager2016 · Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:39 pm

Just a reminder this thread is about BBD rather than the SSJ.

leghorn · Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:19 am

This is a vote of confidence in the Q400 90 seater. It is stealing sales from the sister regional jet produced by Bombardier.

5 CRJs converted to 5 Q400

https://noticiasaereas.com/cib-leasing- ... -asientos/

CRJ900 · Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:42 am

leghorn wrote:
This is a vote of confidence in the Q400 90 seater. It is stealing sales from the sister regional jet produced by Bombardier.

5 CRJs converted to 5 Q400

https://noticiasaereas.com/cib-leasing- ... -asientos/

Wonder which airline will take these... I assume it is not SpiceJet having sold 5 frames to CIB Leasing and leasing them back - but I guess that is one possibility. But would be cool it it is an additional operator of the Q400.

If the Q400 can have 90 seats at 28 inch pitch, the CRJ900 can have 98 seats at 29 inch pitch and the CRJ1000 110 seats at 29 inches. The CRJ700 can probably have 80-84 seats at 28 inch pitch. Lots of possibilities here...

leghorn · Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:45 am

A Chinese airline supposedly.

ExMilitaryEng · Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:23 pm

BBD claims the 90 seater has a 15% cost advantage (CASM?) over the 78 seater. That's really impressive, especially considering how heavier the 90 seater is at TO.

If those savings are remotely accurate, that would explain the renewed interests.

TheKennady2 · Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:36 pm

I like the CRJ nextgens, i would really like to see more of them flying and i am glad AA and DL have agreed to order more CRJ9s through thier regional carriers. The T-tail rear engine design is my personal favorite, its a nice change from the engine wing mounted planes which dominate comercial aviation these days. Long live the CRJ, its the only hope for some variety these days.

Skywatcher · Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:56 pm

In my humble opinion everything will depend on whether Airbus buys out the 49% remaining BBD holding in the C-series or not. I believe that Airbus has that option in 2 years.
I don't know the details but there would likely be a major capital infusion for BBD if this scenario unfolds. That would change everything. The problem with BBD is that they are stretched thin for any major developmental investment right now.

acjbbj · Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:38 pm

Bring back a Q200 NextGen and Q300 NextGen. Keep 4 bladed props. Or should they be six-blade props?

leghorn · Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:08 pm

https://www.bombardier.com/en/media/new ... ercom.html?
3 Q400s sold to Biman.

NWAROOSTER · Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:21 pm

Airbus only bought a 51% interest in in the C100 and C300 aircraft. I think that was for One Canadian Dollar. Few people outside Airbus and Bombardier, and that includes me, do not know what the specifics of the agreement are. I am sure that these aircraft will be produced in Mirabel even though they are rebranded as A220-???. Some may be produced at other locations, such as Mobile, Alabama to avoid Mr Trump's tax surcharges The Q400 will live on as there always will be a need for turboprop aircraft. The Q400 is built both in a passenger and Combi versions. Bombardier has many other interests, including high speed trains and small jets. They just could not succeed with the C100 and C300 for many reasons including problems outside their control. Bombardier will not go away. :old:

GalaxyFlyer · Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:55 pm

I’ll remind everyone, BBD sold and delivered more “small” bizjets than they did RJs since the first RJ was delivered. Their “small” jets can fly 13 pax for 17 hours. They’ve sold as many Globals alone as they have sold CRJ-700/900s over the same time period. CL300/350 and CL-604/605/650 combined sales exceed the CRJ-200 sales by a significant margin. By revenue and units, they’ve been number one or two in bizjets for 15 years. It’s a bizjet builder.

GF

GF

INFINITI329 · Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:09 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
Some may be produced at other locations, such as Mobile, Alabama to avoid Mr Trump's tax surcharges

There are no tariffs currently on A220s/C-Series delivered from Canada to the United States

NWAROOSTER · Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:55 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
Some may be produced at other locations, such as Mobile, Alabama to avoid Mr Trump's tax surcharges

There are no tariffs currently on A220s/C-Series delivered from Canada to the United States

There were going to be tariffs on the C100 and possibly the C300. Why do you think the A220s suddenly were going to be assembled in Mobile, Alabama. :old:

eraugrad02 · Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:24 am

He'd be right. Bring more jobs to the US is a win for both so no tarrifs were added.

leghorn · Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:12 pm

https://www.aviation24.be/manufacturers ... intervals/

CRJ getting extended service intervals.

and in the recent past got Atmosphere interior.
Q400 got extended service intervals and it will probably receive atmosphere interior.

There was nothing to stop them doing all this a long time ago but CS100/130 distracted them.

with extended maintenance schedule and low fuel consumption the CRJ900/CRJ1000 is an attractive option which might stop some bleed to Embraer.

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