Does India have any form of bankruptcy reorganization, where Jet can reduce debt and restructure their business (eliminate the 77Ws, the scissor hub in AMS, reject unprofitable leases, increase the amount of economy seats on each plane), or is liquidation the likely result of bankruptcy?

How much is the Rupee dropping effecting jet?

I'm amazed at no interest rate increase... That sent odd signals to the market

VictorKilo wrote:

Does India have any form of bankruptcy reorganization, where Jet can reduce debt and restructure their business (eliminate the 77Ws, the scissor hub in AMS, reject unprofitable leases, increase the amount of economy seats on each plane), or is liquidation the likely result of bankruptcy?

I'm curious myself. Sadly, it is time.

Lightsaber

VictorKilo wrote:

Does India have any form of bankruptcy reorganization, where Jet can reduce debt and restructure their business (eliminate the 77Ws, the scissor hub in AMS, reject unprofitable leases, increase the amount of economy seats on each plane), or is liquidation the likely result of bankruptcy?

This is India's new bankruptcy law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insolvenc ... Code,_2016

CaliguyNYC wrote:

zionite wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

I think the GOI needs to do something. It makes no sense that Indian aviation should be in such a terrible state since it is growing so fast. Cut working capital interest rates for aviation and lower fuel taxes. Let the airlines make money and then tax their income or raise passenger taxes for actual tickets sold. The issue with fuel taxes is that the airline takes the same hit if the plane is full or empty or if they are super discounting the fare or changing a premium. And before people go there, just having Indigo as a functioning airline is not a proper aviation policy for a huge country like India. India needs a vibrant aviation industry for jobs, connectivity and HEALTHY price competition/service standards/flight timing options.

Interest rates are more or less same for everyone doing business in India. No need for any special treatment for the industry. There are enough protections for them. Its quite difficult for other businesses also due to Chinese competition - and with rising labour cost in China, the main advantages they have are very low taxation and cheap source of funds.

Its up to the airlines operating in India to form a cartel and charge tickets. There's a competition between airlines to announce a "sale" every week and offer 10% discount and everyone slashes their fares to match each others fares.

Its much more important to connect Tier 2 and Tier 3 airports to come online and have domestic connectivity. A subsidy like UDAN scheme is good. If anything that GoI can help, help 9W sell off their WB and buy more ATR and give them loans to fly domestic routes only.

For international flights, it would be better to use subsidy from Middle East instead of subsidy from India - many on A.net claim ME3 are subsidized and ME3 are unofficial national carrier of India.

I’m the opposite on this. I feel India should protect international competition to all fares to rise there to subsidize domestic flying. Having cheap international flights and high domestic does not help india too much (especially since there is more outbound tourism then inbound). Net net aviation in india is screwed up and it is not because of mismanagement alone. The GOI has contributed a huge amount as have these sale fares. Maybe the GOI brings back min fares no lower than 10% of cost (taking some average cost)?

1. It is difficult to control competition on International level. There's Emirates for providing cheap fares to Western world and Air Asia and likes for the South Eastern world. Matching their fares (and comfort) will be difficult and will bleed India more.

2. Except for some migrant labor to Middle East, the international pax traveling for holidays, business or their native homes are generally much better off than those traveling within the country.

3. Air connectivity will play a major role in further development of business. However there is a requirement of more P2P flights within India than more destinations and more P2P flights internationally.

4. GOI can mandate minimum fares for international flights - Emirates can have 20% more seats provided they offer 50% seats below or at the minimum fare. This is just a hypothetical thing. Don't know if that can be done. And being GoI, Emirates will readily increase the "baggage" and GoI will set minimum fares to $1000 one way for economy.

*Emirates = ME3 + TK
*Air Asia = Air Asia + Scoot + Lion Air + Malindo...

lightsaber wrote:

How much is the Rupee dropping effecting jet?

Rupee dropping shouldn't impact salary payment considering most of Jet's revenue is Rupee denominated. However, they might have to shell out more for their lease renewals and the longer they wait, the more it's going to be.

lightsaber wrote:

I'm amazed at no interest rate increase... That sent odd signals to the market

About 4 years ago, a policy was formulated that defined the mandate and the structure of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). This is the team that manages interest rates in India and its sole mandate is to keep CPI inflation within the desired bracket (Currently, it's set at 4% +/- 2%). Given that the inflation is just around 4%, it was logical to hold the rates (Irrespective of what the over dramatic media thinks). It's not MPC's mandate to use the tool of interest rate to manipulate the value of Rupee. For once, I'm actually glad that the defined policy is being followed. Sorry for boring you with this detail.

VictorKilo wrote:

Does India have any form of bankruptcy reorganization, where Jet can reduce debt and restructure their business (eliminate the 77Ws, the scissor hub in AMS, reject unprofitable leases, increase the amount of economy seats on each plane), or is liquidation the likely result of bankruptcy?

lightsaber wrote:

I'm curious myself. Sadly, it is time.

India actually has a very modern Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Usually referred to as IBC) that was originally enacted in 2016 as a reactionary measure to address legacy issue of bad loans clogging the financial sector. But the code has been maturing rapidly (last amended in 2018) and is being used extensively in the country.

VictorKilo wrote:

Does India have any form of bankruptcy reorganization, where Jet can reduce debt and restructure their business (eliminate the 77Ws, the scissor hub in AMS, reject unprofitable leases, increase the amount of economy seats on each plane), or is liquidation the likely result of bankruptcy?

India has very recently enacted a bankruptcy code but it doesn't work they way Chapter 11 does in the US.

Jet Airways is all set to cease all operations at TRZ. What a dramatic change of fortunes at an airport where they came within weeks of launching international to AUH.

More bad news from Jet:
Jet Airways grounds two aircraft on fund crunch. A Boeing 777-300ER has been grounded for the last 10 days, and a A330 has not flown for the past one week. The aircraft are being cannibalised for parts,
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... h/1343638/

Jet hasn't paid the salaries of pilots and maintenance engineers for the month of September. The management doesn't want to commit to a date for salary disbursement either.
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... t/1343492/

unrave wrote:

More bad news from Jet:
Jet Airways grounds two aircraft on fund crunch. A Boeing 777-300ER has been grounded for the last 10 days, and a A330 has not flown for the past one week. The aircraft are being cannibalised for parts,
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... h/1343638/

Jet hasn't paid the salaries of pilots and maintenance engineers for the month of September. The management doesn't want to commit to a date for salary disbursement either.
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... t/1343492/

VT-JEX is the 777. Arrived MAA 29 Sep under a ferry number and not flown since.

They have 3 A330s out of action now :

VT-JWR ferried to AMM overnight 30 Sep - 1 Oct.
VT-JWS last revenue flt DEL-MAA 2 Oct and not flown since.
VT-JWU flew BLR-MAA just a few hours ago under a ferry number so strong chance of this one now out of action too.

I've not looked at their (80!) 737s to check their status.

Looks like the net is closing in.

RobK wrote:

They have 3 A330s out of action now :

VT-JWR ferried to AMM overnight 30 Sep - 1 Oct.
VT-JWS last revenue flt DEL-MAA 2 Oct and not flown since.
VT-JWU flew BLR-MAA just a few hours ago under a ferry number so strong chance of this one now out of action too.

I've not looked at their (80!) 737s to check their status.

Looks like the net is closing in.

They are wet leasing a few aircraft to RJA. That explains the ferry to AMM.

VT-JLB - B737-700 has been stored/returned since April 2018.

B737-700 and A319 are the largest aircraft my hometown RAJ can accomodate. Jet reduced frequency from 4 per day few months ago to 2 this week.

zionite wrote:

VT-JLB - B737-700 has been stored/returned since April 2018.

B737-700 and A319 are the largest aircraft my hometown RAJ can accomodate. Jet reduced frequency from 4 per day few months ago to 2 this week.

I didn't know RAJ was not capable of handling A320. Explains IndiGo's absence in this market.

unrave wrote:

zionite wrote:

VT-JLB - B737-700 has been stored/returned since April 2018.

B737-700 and A319 are the largest aircraft my hometown RAJ can accomodate. Jet reduced frequency from 4 per day few months ago to 2 this week.

I didn't know RAJ was not capable of handling A320. Explains IndiGo's absence in this market.

No B737-800 = No Spicejet
No A320 = No Indigo, GoAir, Vistara, AirAsia

Route is always operated by Jet Konnect (S2) with VT-SIZ, VT-SJA (and VT-JLB) since quite a few years - all B737-700.

A320 & B737-800 can land with large seat restrictions. This happens only when there's a cricket match here and the teams are travelling.

zionite wrote:

A320 & B737-800 can land with large seat restrictions. This happens only when there's a cricket match here and the teams are travelling.

Has there been any development in the new airport? RInfra was the lowest bidder but i don't think AAI has awarded the project yet.

zionite wrote:

unrave wrote:

zionite wrote:

VT-JLB - B737-700 has been stored/returned since April 2018.

B737-700 and A319 are the largest aircraft my hometown RAJ can accomodate. Jet reduced frequency from 4 per day few months ago to 2 this week.

I didn't know RAJ was not capable of handling A320. Explains IndiGo's absence in this market.

No B737-800 = No Spicejet
No A320 = No Indigo, GoAir, Vistara, AirAsia

Route is always operated by Jet Konnect (S2) with VT-SIZ, VT-SJA (and VT-JLB) since quite a few years - all B737-700.

A320 & B737-800 can land with large seat restrictions. This happens only when there's a cricket match here and the teams are travelling.

Indigo and SpiceJet do have turbo props, so not being A320/B737-800 might not be the only reason

Any room to extend RAJ runway? New airport might be a while.

Looking at STV numbers, RAJ might be another sleeper market ripe for taking.

RobK wrote:

VT-JEX is the 777. Arrived MAA 29 Sep under a ferry number and not flown since.

They have 3 A330s out of action now :

VT-JWR ferried to AMM overnight 30 Sep - 1 Oct.
VT-JWS last revenue flt DEL-MAA 2 Oct and not flown since.
VT-JWU flew BLR-MAA just a few hours ago under a ferry number so strong chance of this one now out of action too.

I've not looked at their (80!) 737s to check their status.

Looks like the net is closing in.

These groundings must start to have an impact on 9Ws nerwork soon or? Has the number of cancellations increased?

unrave wrote:

zionite wrote:

A320 & B737-800 can land with large seat restrictions. This happens only when there's a cricket match here and the teams are travelling.

Has there been any development in the new airport? RInfra was the lowest bidder but i don't think AAI has awarded the project yet.

No news. No rumors also.

sibibom wrote:

zionite wrote:

unrave wrote:

I didn't know RAJ was not capable of handling A320. Explains IndiGo's absence in this market.

No B737-800 = No Spicejet
No A320 = No Indigo, GoAir, Vistara, AirAsia

Route is always operated by Jet Konnect (S2) with VT-SIZ, VT-SJA (and VT-JLB) since quite a few years - all B737-700.

A320 & B737-800 can land with large seat restrictions. This happens only when there's a cricket match here and the teams are travelling.

Indigo and SpiceJet do have turbo props, so not being A320/B737-800 might not be the only reason

I doubt SpiceJet will start any routes on turboprops. Fingers crossed for Indigo.

However there is a much more demand for BOM than DEL. AI just upgraded from ATR72 to A319 after more than a year. 5 routes to BOM is/was always full. However Indigo doesn't have spare slots in BOM.

BTW about 15-20 pax per flight to/fro BOM is always from Reliance Industries refinery near Jamnagar. This is over and above their daily commuter flight(s) from BOM to JGA or RAJ (depending on JGA airbase availability) - usually in their ERJ-135 VT-JMN (JaMNagar)

unrave wrote:

More bad guynews from Jet:
Jet Airways grounds two aircraft on fund crunch. A Boeing 777-300ER has been grounded for the last 10 days, and a A330 has not flown for the past one week. The aircraft are being cannibalised for parts,
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... h/1343638/

Jet hasn't paid the salaries of pilots and maintenance engineers for the month of September. The management doesn't want to commit to a date for salary disbursement either.
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... t/1343492/

As far as I'm concerned a company missing payroll is bankrupt. : hissyfit: One up to 3 day miss per year could be excused. This is rediculous.

There needs to be a law that all executive and director pay is only to be paid 7 days after all employees and all bonuses and stock options over $10,000 are held in escrow and only paid if the employees have been fully paid.

Lightsaber

RobK wrote:

VT-JWS last revenue flt DEL-MAA 2 Oct and not flown since.
VT-JWU flew BLR-MAA just a few hours ago under a ferry number so strong chance of this one now out of action too.

VT-JWS is grounded
VT-JWU just "swapped" base with VT-JWT and they are operating MAA-CDG-MAA and BLR-AMS-BLR respectively. This is the first time I'm seeing this, usually the aircraft are rotated through a DEL leg.

Edit: looks like these MAA-BLR and vv. once weekly ferries are open for bookings!

Jet Airways mulls grounding 20 737s to cut losses
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... s/1346310/

Adele: This is the end....

lightsaber wrote:

unrave wrote:

More bad guynews from Jet:
Jet Airways grounds two aircraft on fund crunch. A Boeing 777-300ER has been grounded for the last 10 days, and a A330 has not flown for the past one week. The aircraft are being cannibalised for parts,
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... h/1343638/

Jet hasn't paid the salaries of pilots and maintenance engineers for the month of September. The management doesn't want to commit to a date for salary disbursement either.
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... t/1343492/

As far as I'm concerned a company missing payroll is bankrupt. : hissyfit: One up to 3 day miss per year could be excused. This is rediculous.

There needs to be a law that all executive and director pay is only to be paid 7 days after all employees and all bonuses and stock options over $10,000 are held in escrow and only paid if the employees have been fully paid.

Lightsaber

Jet only has to do a shade better than Air India. By that metric it has a while to go.

On a serious note, Naresh Goyal might as well prostrate in front of Ali Baker and cash the cheque. His management style is distinctly out of favor these days.

unrave wrote:

Jet Airways mulls grounding 20 737s to cut losses
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... s/1346310/

Adele: This is the end....

In that very article it's written :

In response to FE’s query on the issue, a Jet Airways spokesperson said, “Jet Airways categorically denies your information which is factually incorrect and misleading. The airline also urges the publication to refrain from reporting speculative information being circulated via sources with malicious intent.”

I know the financial condition is not good but let's not believe in media speculations.

binayak wrote:

I know the financial condition is not good but let's not believe in media speculations.

Make no mistake this is Kingfisher part 2, Jet obviously has to deny, else people will stop booking on them and further quicken the inevitable death. The only way out is Naresh Goyal(and/or Etihad) selling his stake and moving out, and someone like Vistara or Qatar coming in, and they probably have days to do this, weeks and months may be too late.

Indigo meanwhile will be waiting to grab the slots overnight if Jet fails.

sibibom wrote:

binayak wrote:

I know the financial condition is not good but let's not believe in media speculations.

The only way out is Naresh Goyal(and/or Etihad) selling his stake and moving out, and someone like Vistara or Qatar coming in, and they probably have days to do this, weeks and months may be too late.

Are you serious? Sheikh Zayed is in talks with Naresh Goyal to sell Etihad to Jet. They are going to move all the wide bodies to BOM hub.

vadodara wrote:

sibibom wrote:

binayak wrote:

I know the financial condition is not good but let's not believe in media speculations.

The only way out is Naresh Goyal(and/or Etihad) selling his stake and moving out, and someone like Vistara or Qatar coming in, and they probably have days to do this, weeks and months may be too late.

Are you serious? Sheikh Zayed is in talks with Naresh Goyal to sell Etihad to Jet. They are going to move all the wide bodies to BOM hub.

huh?

sibibom wrote:

vadodara wrote:

sibibom wrote:

The only way out is Naresh Goyal(and/or Etihad) selling his stake and moving out, and someone like Vistara or Qatar coming in, and they probably have days to do this, weeks and months may be too late.

Are you serious? Sheikh Zayed is in talks with Naresh Goyal to sell Etihad to Jet. They are going to move all the wide bodies to BOM hub.

huh?

Sarcasm.

sibibom wrote:

binayak wrote:

I know the financial condition is not good but let's not believe in media speculations.

Make no mistake this is Kingfisher part 2, Jet obviously has to deny, else people will stop booking on them and further quicken the inevitable death. The only way out is Naresh Goyal(and/or Etihad) selling his stake and moving out, and someone like Vistara or Qatar coming in, and they probably have days to do this, weeks and months may be too late.

Indigo meanwhile will be waiting to grab the slots overnight if Jet fails.

As I've earlier mentioned , I know their financial condition is not good but the Indian media has done a good job in labelling this as Kingfisher Part 2 .
Half of the negative articles written about jet during the last 2 months are actually based on unnamed sources . So my point is not whether jet will actually ground 20 a/cs or not. My point is we are discussing on an article containing information which is just speculation . And if they're really gonna ground aircraft they won't deny as the same will be revealed to the public very soon.
About the various articles :
Jet made losses and has good amount of debt to pay? Yes
Jet's credit rating has been downgraded?Yes
Jet will close in 60 days?No
Jet fired 500 ground staff?No
20 737s will be grounded? Clearly no !!

About jet being kingfisher part 2 , it depends on how you read it. Kingfisher is a new term for a loss making struggling airline.
Is jet's condition (financial) similar to KF's in 2008-09? Maybe yes (because that time KF was indeed loss making but struggling to strive)
Is jet's condition similar to KF in 2012? NO !! ( in 2012 , pilots, engineers had undertaken multiple strikes , fleet had been reduced to its lowest , int'l ops called off, unable to even pay airport taxes, employees salaries weren't paid for 5-6 straight months . Jet is nowhere close to that.)

binayak wrote:

As I've earlier mentioned , I know their financial condition is not good but the Indian media has done a good job in labelling this as Kingfisher Part 2 .
Half of the negative articles written about jet during the last 2 months are actually based on unnamed sources . So my point is not whether jet will actually ground 20 a/cs or not. My point is we are discussing on an article containing information which is just speculation . And if they're really gonna ground aircraft they won't deny as the same will be revealed to the public very soon.
About the various articles :
Jet made losses and has good amount of debt to pay? Yes
Jet's credit rating has been downgraded?Yes
Jet will close in 60 days?No
Jet fired 500 ground staff?No
20 737s will be grounded? Clearly no !!

About jet being kingfisher part 2 , it depends on how you read it. Kingfisher is a new term for a loss making struggling airline.
Is jet's condition (financial) similar to KF's in 2008-09? Maybe yes (because that time KF was indeed loss making but struggling to strive)
Is jet's condition similar to KF in 2012? NO !! ( in 2012 , pilots, engineers had undertaken multiple strikes , fleet had been reduced to its lowest , int'l ops called off, unable to even pay airport taxes, employees salaries weren't paid for 5-6 straight months . Jet is nowhere close to that.)

Exactly!

Jet is nowadays getting the treatment that is normally reserved for Air India. Note how a lot of the media stories being quoted by Indigo PR agents are based on "unnamed sources" and a lot of it is complete BS as you rightly pointed out.

The aim of this media exercise is to reduce the forward bookings for Jet by creating this Kingfisher Part2 scenario thus making a bad situation worse. Indigo is going for the kill hoping to pick up the BOM slots for cheap if Jet falls. Vultures!!

NG is not Vijay Mallya! I know PR agents like to salute the rising sun( in this case Indigo) but people who think Jet is just going to vanish overnight are going to be disappointed.

binayak wrote:

About jet being kingfisher part 2 , it depends on how you read it. Kingfisher is a new term for a loss making struggling airline.
Is jet's condition (financial) similar to KF's in 2008-09? Maybe yes (because that time KF was indeed loss making but struggling to strive)
Is jet's condition similar to KF in 2012? NO !! ( in 2012 , pilots, engineers had undertaken multiple strikes , fleet had been reduced to its lowest , int'l ops called off, unable to even pay airport taxes, employees salaries weren't paid for 5-6 straight months . Jet is nowhere close to that.)

I would argue that their situation is closer to KF of 2012 than KF of 2009. The similarities are uncanny: Nil equity, no liquidity, heavy losses, high fuel price, delayed salaries and talks of grounding aircraft.

Speaking of KF and Jet, today is the 10th anniversary of one of the most bizarre events in Indian aviation. On this day in 2008 KF and Jet (then accounting for 60% of the domestic market) announced a grand alliance that was high on hopes and low on details. Ultimately the alliance did not proceed much beyond the announcement.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 591641.cms

unrave wrote:

binayak wrote:

About jet being kingfisher part 2 , it depends on how you read it. Kingfisher is a new term for a loss making struggling airline.
Is jet's condition (financial) similar to KF's in 2008-09? Maybe yes (because that time KF was indeed loss making but struggling to strive)
Is jet's condition similar to KF in 2012? NO !! ( in 2012 , pilots, engineers had undertaken multiple strikes , fleet had been reduced to its lowest , int'l ops called off, unable to even pay airport taxes, employees salaries weren't paid for 5-6 straight months . Jet is nowhere close to that.)

I would argue that their situation is closer to KF of 2012 than KF of 2009. The similarities are uncanny: Nil equity, no liquidity, heavy losses, high fuel price, delayed salaries and talks of grounding aircraft.
s

The details you're mentioning in second line are the conditions in 2009.
By 2012 the damage was done and there was no way out of it. Airport authorities were almost seizing KFs flying rights, staff weren't paid for 5-6 straight months not a few weeks , aircrafts were already grounded and there was hardly anything left to fly. Outside A. Net the general public seem to have forgotten these and thus the media is trying to create a similar image in their mind about jet's condition today to KFs condition on the verge of shutting.
As for jet, once the stake sale is done, they'll have some cash in hand with which the grounded WBs can be back again, and after SLB of their 16 WBs (10 777s and 6a330s) , things can be better.

One underestimates the fall of Rupee, that would be a single biggest reason for Jet's demise. In an industry where margins are in single digits, 20% fall in Rupee will be catastrophic. Paying leases in dollars will break airlines. And if it continues for more than a couple of quarters, asking for delayed payments will not work. And then there is the Oil price and the absolute lack of liquidity in the Indian market. Its a perfect storm, not everyone will survive next few months.

Well PR hatchet jobs are part of the perception becomes reality problem they now face. You can complain all you like that it is unfair but if it persuades enough people....

Grounding aircraft to save money in such a competitive market place seems kind of futile, as the competition will just swoop in on the unfulfilled routes, further weakening them. Even if it looks like 2009 not 2012, 2012 still arrived, it just means their death spiral has longer to go.

binayak wrote:

As for jet, once the stake sale is done, they'll have some cash in hand with which the grounded WBs can be back again, and after SLB of their 16 WBs (10 777s and 6a330s) , things can be better.

That is the issue isn't it. We have heard a lot of sound bytes regarding the stake sale but nothing has happened so far. Even their FF program sale has hit a roadblock. Mallya was giving the similar sound bytes for years. The fact is it is very difficult to get investors on board a business if they deem it unviable.

Exeiowa wrote:

Well PR hatchet jobs are part of the perception becomes reality problem they now face. You can complain all you like that it is unfair but if it persuades enough people....

Grounding aircraft to save money in such a competitive market place seems kind of futile, as the competition will just swoop in on the unfulfilled routes, further weakening them. Even if it looks like 2009 not 2012, 2012 still arrived, it just means their death spiral has longer to go.

I find it amusing that fans of Indian airlines blame PR. Yet Indigo, GoAir and SpiceJet can easily shake off bad PR. Why? We'll run opperations.

The public knows high utilization reduces costs, so they are sensitized to parked aircraft. If an airline is going to park aircraft, it is their job to manage the PR. Why do we never see at a quarterly presentation:
"The next two months are the low season. Because of this, we perform all maintenance checks at this time and so aircraft utilization will drop."

Indian airlines do the old gatekeeper PR of denial giving bloggers the opportunity to out them. Since they are in a mis-managed state, the PR will be bad.

A numbers run airline adapts early. For example Indigo converted Rupees to dollars/Euros early to prepay leases. If Jet's management was proactive instead of reactive, they could have done something.

Personally, I think Jet's #1 issue is subsidized AI, but there are other threads for that discussion.

Lightsaber

Did Jet suffer (or thrive) because of AI?

Either way, one only needs to go to the beginning of this thread. The bankers asked Jet to provide a model that is sustainable. Obviously Jet does not have an answer there.

There is an alternate model followed by likes of Insigo, Spice etc which relies on simplicity, operational efficiency and market growth. Jet does not have a clue how to respond to the market that is evolving.

lightsaber wrote:

Exeiowa wrote:

Well PR hatchet jobs are part of the perception becomes reality problem they now face. You can complain all you like that it is unfair but if it persuades enough people....

Grounding aircraft to save money in such a competitive market place seems kind of futile, as the competition will just swoop in on the unfulfilled routes, further weakening them. Even if it looks like 2009 not 2012, 2012 still arrived, it just means their death spiral has longer to go.

I find it amusing that fans of Indian airlines blame PR. Yet Indigo, GoAir and SpiceJet can easily shake off bad PR. Why? We'll run opperations.

The public knows high utilization reduces costs, so they are sensitized to parked aircraft. If an airline is going to park aircraft, it is their job to manage the PR. Why do we never see at a quarterly presentation:
"The next two months are the low season. Because of this, we perform all maintenance checks at this time and so aircraft utilization will drop."

Indian airlines do the old gatekeeper PR of denial giving bloggers the opportunity to out them. Since they are in a mis-managed state, the PR will be bad.

A numbers run airline adapts early. For example Indigo converted Rupees to dollars/Euros early to prepay leases. If Jet's management was proactive instead of reactive, they could have done something.

Personally, I think Jet's #1 issue is subsidized AI, but there are other threads for that discussion.

Lightsaber

Well the proponents of PRHatchetJob theory have at least come down from their position of 'it is all a media stunt to malign Jet Airways' to acknowledging the starined financials. That's a good start.

We have the first public statement from Boeing regarding Jet Airways. Dinesh Keskar, senior vice-president, Asia-Pacific & India sales for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, - another PR agent for IndiGo, obviously - says Boeing is concerned about the financial situation at Jet.
https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... n-5400001/

Read in one of the posts above that a 777 has been grounded. Will the services to AMS and CDG from both BOM and DEL be affected in any way over the next few weeks?

DTWLAX wrote:

Read in one of the posts above that a 777 has been grounded. Will the services to AMS and CDG from both BOM and DEL be affected in any way over the next few weeks?

Nope. AMS and CDG won't be affected.
They used to send 77W to SIN during the weekends earlier. That might have been stopped.

lightsaber wrote:

Personally, I think Jet's #1 issue is subsidized AI, but there are other threads for that discussion.

Nope. Jet's #1 problem is not a subsidized AI. For the approximately 1st 15 years of it's 25 year existence Jet's only competition was AI. If anything, they should have been in a stronger position than anyone else given the sheer # of years' head start they had over the likes of Indigo & SpiceJet.

Successive GoI's have been consistently running AI in to the ground and yet in 2018, a subsidized AI is now 9W's biggest issue? Let's not kid ourselves. The 30,000 Cr infusion didn't even happen until 2012 thanks to the 2006(?) shopping spree by PP and the disastrous merger.

The problem with Jet is that everything except Jet themselves is the #1 problem for Jet. Sometimes it's the FDI policy, sometimes the 5/20 rule, other times it's PR hatchet jobs, and AI is always there to throw under the bus. But don't blame us for the position we are in.

Grounded widebodies at MAA. Source: Mohan Ranganathan on Twitter.

RobK wrote:

unrave wrote:

More bad news from Jet:
Jet Airways grounds two aircraft on fund crunch. A Boeing 777-300ER has been grounded for the last 10 days, and a A330 has not flown for the past one week. The aircraft are being cannibalised for parts,
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... h/1343638/

Jet hasn't paid the salaries of pilots and maintenance engineers for the month of September. The management doesn't want to commit to a date for salary disbursement either.
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... t/1343492/

VT-JEX is the 777. Arrived MAA 29 Sep under a ferry number and not flown since.

They have 3 A330s out of action now :

VT-JWR ferried to AMM overnight 30 Sep - 1 Oct.
VT-JWS last revenue flt DEL-MAA 2 Oct and not flown since.
VT-JWU flew BLR-MAA just a few hours ago under a ferry number so strong chance of this one now out of action too.

I've not looked at their (80!) 737s to check their status.

Looks like the net is closing in.

VT-JWQ to add to list. Out of action for a week now at BOM.

VT-JWU was back in service on 10 Oct to CDG.

Someone said VT-JWR was on lease to RJA but there's no evidence of that anywhere that I can see and it's parked up out of action at AMM.

There's only VT-JWU and VT-JEX parked at MAA so that other heavy in the pic is a mystery. FR24 shows all their other heavies in service (other than the ones at BOM and AMM) so whatever it was isn't there now.

RobK wrote:

There's only VT-JWU and VT-JEX parked at MAA so that other heavy in the pic is a mystery. FR24 shows all their other heavies in service (other than the ones at BOM and AMM) so whatever it was isn't there now.

That's the MAA-CDG-MAA aircraft which operates 5x weekly and rests for the other 2 days.

Do we think 9W will start BOM-MAN-BOM from 5th Nov as planned or will the financial issues prevent the new route from starting?

AI wrote:

Do we think 9W will start BOM-MAN-BOM from 5th Nov as planned or will the financial issues prevent the new route from starting?

My guess is Yes they will launch MAN. I think Jet is doing well on these partnership flights to LHR, CDG & AMS. MAN is a big Virgin airport. I think VS’ support plus Jet’s BOM base will make MAN work. I am not saying these euro flights make a ton of money, but I don’t think they lose money. Hence, why I think Jet will launch.

While these widebodies are resting, I wish Jet would take out First Class on the 777. Maybe just add more J class or even have premium Econ up front (if it is too expensive moving J class up. At this stage, Jet needs quick ways to make more money on these flights. I also think 4 rows of extra legroom in Y is needed. DL & KL pax are all used to pay for this. Flights to India are super long, paying $150 for extra legroom is not a huge burden for the small subset of users you need to fill it. Maybe give it free to Jet top tier fliers.

AI wrote:

Do we think 9W will start BOM-MAN-BOM from 5th Nov as planned or will the financial issues prevent the new route from starting?

Though MAN has high p2p demand to India especially BOM, launching a new route in the midst of a financial crisis at the airline is silly as the yields on this route are low. 9W can never make a net profit operating BOM MAN however they can make an operating profit.

On a net profit basis alone, they stand to lose $7-8 million per annum operating this route 5wk at least.

AI wrote:

Do we think 9W will start BOM-MAN-BOM from 5th Nov as planned or will the financial issues prevent the new route from starting?

I think 9W will have bigger concerns by 5 Nov than launching new routes, such as figuring out how they're going to continue to operate when all their planes are blocked in by various items of airport equipment for non-payment of fees.

RobK wrote:

Someone said VT-JWR was on lease to RJA but there's no evidence of that anywhere that I can see and it's parked up out of action at AMM.

I said that and I was indeed wrong. Turns out Jet does maintenance on its WB fleet at a facility in AMM.

sibibom wrote:

One underestimates the fall of Rupee, that would be a single biggest reason for Jet's demise.

Lets not get overtly dramatic! Its too early to use that D word. Not yet.

As much as Indigo fanboys would like to see their favored airline grab slots out of BOM, Jet is not going away just yet.

lightsaber wrote:

I find it amusing that fans of Indian airlines blame PR. Yet Indigo, GoAir and SpiceJet can easily shake off bad PR. Why? We'll run opperations.
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Indian airlines do the old gatekeeper PR of denial giving bloggers the opportunity to out them. Since they are in a mis-managed state, the PR will be bad.

If only it were that simple! Clever PR campaigns can run a well run airline down or product down. Remember suzuki/Consumer Union in the US? A badly run airline with shaky fundamentals can still get a 5 star rating and all positive media attention if they hire the right PR people. It wont last forever because the fundamentals are not in place to back it up. Kingfisher did that for years before eventually falling!

People have short memories - Look at posts about Kingfisher on this very forum from a decade back. Till 2010 or so, KF was the airline that could do no wrong. I did a little bit of digging around. The very same people beating the Indigo drum today were back then singing praises for KF. The free tickets to Singapore/Maldives and free rides on the A380 was worth the effort of bashing AI on forums like these and long blogposts ! When the PR budget closed in, they switched loyalties. That is just how it works.

Jet is an airline which has its fundamentals in place. Will they be knocked out in the current round as Indigo goes for the kill? That might well happen, but I would be surprised if it did. People underestimate Naresh Goyal IMO. The way I see it, Spicejet is the most vulnerable to a sudden death scenario along with Air India.