Jet Airways Updated: Operations suspended

Viman · Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:22 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Why do you say certainly not a board seat? He will have 20% after dilution and is probably one of the bigger shareholder. I think he will retain his board seat. But so what. That is just vanity. Board seats do not have operating control and one vote can't make the board do things you want. I predict he will have his face saving board seat but will be totally out of management and will have EY forcing him to vote with them on critical board votes.
And "election shock" - I mean the hyperbole on Indian posts is amazing. Btw with EY driving a tough bargain (or being unreasonable) and Goyal driving a tough bargain (or being unreasonable), at some point the govt should stop in. Aviation is national security and India would not benefit from having Jet go down in flames. A managed sell off, sure but not stop flying tomorrow.

There is no point in Govt stepping in, Naresh will just ask for more loans from State Banks. The Govt already did its job by asking Tata to have a look and with Etihad in mix there are two suitable buyers to facilitate Naresh's exit. Now if Naresh Goyal himself wants to destroy his company for control issues then let him do it, in-fact declare him wilful defaulter after all the mess and throw him in Jail if he doesn't pay back the loans.

JoeCanuck · Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:32 pm

I think EY will drive a very hard bargain. They don't seem to be in the strongest shape at the moment and I suspect they are presenting a 'take it or leave it' bargaining position.

I think EY holds most of the cards at the moment. They are pretty much the only potential 'white knight' in the wings. Nobody else seems even slightly interested in stepping up and putting cash into Jet...and it's cash that Jet needs for the short term. For the long term, the airline needs, in the very least, new management.

EY can supply both, though looking at EY's current travails...they may just be inclined to cut bait and take care of their own problems before sinking more cash and effort into Jet.

edealinfo · Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:51 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
If the above information is correct (5 leasers working together) that's a big deal and must be the wake up call none were heading sooner, presumably collectively they could have grounded more than five if they wanted too, but this was more about sending a message than recovering these aircraft at this time it would seem. The bad PR isn't going to be wiped out by some spin quickly. With the back log of narrow bodies on order, frames have value, and if you don't pay up we will find a home for them else where is the message. I just do not understand why they could not have accepted reality earlier it would have been less painful overall. But this stubborn refusal might cost them all in the end.

No one has confirmed it is 5 separate lessors that grounded a plane each. I had asked the question and no one answered it, as yet.

Separately no one beats the Indian hyperbole. The best part is that most Indians don’t even realize it is hyperbole having brought up in an environment where hyperbole is part of normal conversation.

edealinfo · Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:23 pm

naresh is almost certain to retain his 2 board sets but would lose his title as Executive chairman. At best he would be chairman emeritus, and contrary to what everyone thinks, with his deep “experience “ in meddling with anything aviation, he will continue to interfere .....with lower influence

lightsaber · Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:29 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
blrsea wrote:

They can, but no buyer (including EY) wants NG or his cronies anywhere near the company. With 18-20% share, he will still have a place on the board. So no go for now

Concur. Goyal might receive some, but not much. Certainly not a board seat. The money has to come from somewhere. EY might or might not invest depending on terms. The fact they haven't says their minimum terms have not been met. There is no point investing unless Jet can be made viable (profitable) quickly.

I really wonder how much longer the standoff can last before any potential angel investor walks away.

Jet needs a fortune to keep opperating! How much are they losing per day? What is there total negative value?

This could be quite the election shock. I see no reason for EY to throw good money after bad on the current offered terms.

Could they just be trying to ensure Goyal takes the blame? It doesn't cost more than hotel and executive pay to keep talking.

Lightsaber

Why do you say certainly not a board seat? He will have 20% after dilution and is probably one of the bigger shareholder. I think he will retain his board seat. But so what. That is just vanity. Board seats do not have operating control and one vote can't make the board do things you want. I predict he will have his face saving board seat but will be totally out of management and will have EY forcing him to vote with them on critical board votes.
And "election shock" - I mean the hyperbole on Indian posts is amazing. Btw with EY driving a tough bargain (or being unreasonable) and Goyal driving a tough bargain (or being unreasonable), at some point the govt should stop in. Aviation is national security and India would not benefit from having Jet go down in flames. A managed sell off, sure but not stop flying tomorrow.

The rules aren't final. If I was EY, I wouldn't want him assigning anyone to the board. If he has a board seat, by definition he votes however he wants or his proxy votes per their mind. By law, boards must be independent, there is no telling them what to do.

EY isn't being unreasonable, they are now pursuing a profit. If they ask for too much, they will be out bid. .

Jet needs a huge amount of cash. Unless an Indian entity comes forward with a viable management plan and hundreds of millions of USD, Jet will either fold or be merged into AI.

Jet being a national security might discourage further EY investment.

This is high risk and high stakes. We're just getting interesting. This will get worse.

Six aircraft grounded per the link I posted. Any more? Using rental equipment after non-payment is theft. At some point leasing companies just have to set a precedent to ensure timely payment.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:37 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
I think EY will drive a very hard bargain. They don't seem to be in the strongest shape at the moment and I suspect they are presenting a 'take it or leave it' bargaining position.

I think EY holds most of the cards at the moment. They are pretty much the only potential 'white knight' in the wings. Nobody else seems even slightly interested in stepping up and putting cash into Jet...and it's cash that Jet needs for the short term. For the long term, the airline needs, in the very least, new management.

EY can supply both, though looking at EY's current travails...they may just be inclined to cut bait and take care of their own problems before sinking more cash and effort into Jet.

I 100% agree with this. EY needs to handle their own problems first. However, for political reasons, they must continue to show up at the table.

Right now it sounds like EY is being told to pay more for less. They reply "Our prior offer is still good, We cannot accept this counteroffer today, but let me take this back to the committee; they are unlikely to approve it.". A day later, "Our prior offer is still good."

Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

dtw2hyd · Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:46 pm

NG may be a toxic crook, an old horse doesn't want to learn new tricks and everything else Indians want to think bad about him, but he is the 51% owner of the company, not a PR shill who can be moved to a different account.

Whoever is the new miracle majority owner, should be able to pony up to service past and current debt at the minimum.

All the talk is about ownership change, zero discussion about how the new owner is going to service past and current liabilities to shore up the company. There is no legal way to fix this problem. That is the reason Delta simply left the room.

unrave · Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:48 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
NG may be a toxic crook, an old horse doesn't want to learn new tricks and everything else Indians want to think bad about him, but he is the 51% owner of the company, not a PR shill who can be moved to a different account.

Whoever is the new miracle majority owner, should be able to pony up to service past and current debt at the minimum.

All the talk is about ownership change, zero discussion about how the new owner is going to service past and current liabilities to shore up the company. There is no legal way to fix this problem. That is the reason Delta simply left the room.

Hence Jet Airways has no future. This is exactly what INFORMED posters have been saying for several months :roll:

smartplane · Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:20 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
I think EY will drive a very hard bargain. They don't seem to be in the strongest shape at the moment and I suspect they are presenting a 'take it or leave it' bargaining position.

I think EY holds most of the cards at the moment. They are pretty much the only potential 'white knight' in the wings. Nobody else seems even slightly interested in stepping up and putting cash into Jet...and it's cash that Jet needs for the short term. For the long term, the airline needs, in the very least, new management.

EY can supply both, though looking at EY's current travails...they may just be inclined to cut bait and take care of their own problems before sinking more cash and effort into Jet.

EY will drive a very hard bargain. They either want everything out, or in, on their terms. Every benefit / concession they extract, increases the value of EY to EK.

unrave · Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:03 am

Jet Airways has cancelled 15 flights today owing to non availability of planes. Even the usual sockpuppets on social media have stopped defending the airline now.

unrave · Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:08 am

First nail in the coffin? GECAS has written to DGCA asking to ground planes. Jet has not cleared lease dues for more than months. At least 18 aircraft operated by Jet have been leased from GECAS
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 186_1.html

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:58 am

unrave wrote:
First nail in the coffin? GECAS has written to DGCA asking to ground planes. Jet has not cleared lease dues for more than months. At least 18 aircraft operated by Jet have been leased from GECAS
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 186_1.html

Five aircraft unpaid for 5 months? That is a problem.

How can a business go 5 months missing lease payments. Add another bill to the pile.

With unpaid MRO, who is maintaining?

Lightsaber

lutfi · Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:58 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
NG may be a toxic crook, an old horse doesn't want to learn new tricks and everything else Indians want to think bad about him, but he is the 51% owner of the company, not a PR shill who can be moved to a different account.

Whoever is the new miracle majority owner, should be able to pony up to service past and current debt at the minimum.

All the talk is about ownership change, zero discussion about how the new owner is going to service past and current liabilities to shore up the company. There is no legal way to fix this problem. That is the reason Delta simply left the room.

Agree - all the discussion about equity/ share holdings is a red herring. If EY isn't willing to give guarantee on bank loans or the banks willing to convert most debt to capital (which is a de facto write off) this is going no where

edealinfo · Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

edealinfo · Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:01 am

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game even when flights are beginning to get grounded. He hasn't caved and I am sure behind the scenes, the 3 parties are still bargaining.

juliuswong · Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:10 am

112 aircraft in fleet now
10 B77W- all owned by 9W
4 A332- two owned by 9W, another two by Altavair AirFinance
4 A333- two by CDB Aviation, another two by GECAS
15 ATR-72- seven by Aergo Capital, six by Injet Leasing, two by Investec
79 B737- owned by various lessors. (18 are by GECAS)
Source: https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Jet-Airways

smartplane · Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:35 am

juliuswong wrote:
112 aircraft in fleet now
10 B77W- all owned by 9W
4 A332- two owned by 9W, another two by Altavair AirFinance
4 A333- two by CDB Aviation, another two by GECAS
15 ATR-72- seven by Aergo Capital, six by Injet Leasing, two by Investec
79 B737- owned by various lessors. (18 are by GECAS)
Source: https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Jet-Airways

Every aircraft in the fleet will either be leased, or owned with fixed / floating charge.

Sydscott · Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:24 am

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

At this point it's probably easier for Etihad and the SBI to walk away and then pick over the carcass as Creditors once everything falls over. So let him run it into the ground and get a return from the liquidation. In that way the people who will lose are the stockholders will creditors will at least walk away with some cents in the dollar on the transaction. Better than all of this drama and much easier to rule a line under it and move on.

JoeCanuck · Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:47 am

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

I think as far as EY is concerned, my opinion is that they see the writing on the wall and consider their money mostly lost, putting them in the position of having nothing to lose. EY is experiencing financial problems of its own. They already bailed on Air Berlin. I think they are prepared to do the same with Jet.

If Jet is run into the ground, investors lose their current investment. If they pump a bunch of money to keep it afloat and management isn't drastically changed...Jet still goes under but investors lose even more money, so that's probably a non starter. Goyal has no cards to play. My prediction is that he will be given a take it or leave it proposition, at least from EY.

I suspect he has already gotten that final offer and all that's left is posturing until the offer is either accepted or rejected.

If he takes it, Jet has a chance. If he doesn't, EY wipes its hands, eats the loss and Jet tanks. If bankruptcy in India is anything like the US, Goyal's shares would be pretty much worthless. Then, the creditors move in and appoint a trustee to run the airline and/or manage assets. I suspect they would then cut a new deal with Etihad.

As I mentioned...I don't have a clue about how bankruptcy in India works so this is all wild ass speculating.

blrsea · Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:56 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

I think as far as EY is concerned, my opinion is that they see the writing on the wall and consider their money mostly lost, putting them in the position of having nothing to lose. EY is experiencing financial problems of its own. They already bailed on Air Berlin. I think they are prepared to do the same with Jet.

If Jet is run into the ground, investors lose their current investment. If they pump a bunch of money to keep it afloat and management isn't drastically changed...Jet still goes under but investors lose even more money, so that's probably a non starter. Goyal has no cards to play. My prediction is that he will be given a take it or leave it proposition, at least from EY.

I suspect he has already gotten that final offer and all that's left is posturing until the offer is either accepted or rejected.

If he takes it, Jet has a chance. If he doesn't, EY wipes its hands, eats the loss and Jet tanks. If bankruptcy in India is anything like the US, Goyal's shares would be pretty much worthless. Then, the creditors move in and appoint a trustee to run the airline and/or manage assets. I suspect they would then cut a new deal with Etihad.

As I mentioned...I don't have a clue about how bankruptcy in India works so this is all wild ass speculating.

According to India's version of bankruptcy law (called IBC), once a company defaults on its loan, it has 180 days to set things right. If not, the lenders can take the company to Company Law Tribunal and be referred for bankruptcy proceedings. The NCLT appoints a resolution professional who will study the company books and then set a reserve price and call for bids from potential bidders. The company is sold to highest bidder. If no one bids or if they fail to match the reserve price, the lenders have the option to call for liquidating the business and selling it in parts. This is a very high level overview of how things work in India.

The only issue is that Jet has negative net worth. If it goes to liquidation, there won't be anything that the lenders will get. Their best bet lies in someone bidding and taking over the company fully.

juliuswong · Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:00 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
If Jet is run into the ground, investors lose their current investment. If they pump a bunch of money to keep it afloat and management isn't drastically changed...Jet still goes under but investors lose even more money, so that's probably a non starter. Goyal has no cards to play. My prediction is that he will be given a take it or leave it proposition, at least from EY.

I suspect he has already gotten that final offer and all that's left is posturing until the offer is either accepted or rejected.

If he takes it, Jet has a chance. If he doesn't, EY wipes its hands, eats the loss and Jet tanks. If bankruptcy in India is anything like the US, Goyal's shares would be pretty much worthless. Then, the creditors move in and appoint a trustee to run the airline and/or manage assets. I suspect they would then cut a new deal with Etihad.

As I mentioned...I don't have a clue about how bankruptcy in India works so this is all wild ass speculating.

Agree with your assessment here, 9W has been limping from one financial crunch to another without any permanent rescue plan in place. Better pull the cord now than later, and restart the operation anew, that is if they are allowed to operate again.

dtw2hyd · Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:54 am

Is SBI in such a great shape to rescue 9W? Latest news suggests Indian banks found yet another huge 31,000 Cr sinkhole in their backyard, SBI's is in for 12,000 Cr.

These sinkholes show up on Indian bank finances faster than Florida backyards. If true, it is like one blind leading another??

unrave · Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:15 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Is SBI in such a great shape to rescue 9W? Latest news suggests Indian banks found yet another huge 31,000 Cr sinkhole in their backyard, SBI's is in for 12,000 Cr.

These sinkholes show up on Indian bank finances faster than Florida backyards. If true, it is like one blind leading another??

A questionable news outlet with penchant for sensationalism makes wild accusations imagining numbers out of thin air for the sole purpose of getting clicks. That story has more holes than Andheri Kurla road after monsoons

edealinfo · Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:21 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

I think as far as EY is concerned, my opinion is that they see the writing on the wall and consider their money mostly lost, putting them in the position of having nothing to lose. EY is experiencing financial problems of its own. They already bailed on Air Berlin. I think they are prepared to do the same with Jet.

If Jet is run into the ground, investors lose their current investment. If they pump a bunch of money to keep it afloat and management isn't drastically changed...Jet still goes under but investors lose even more money, so that's probably a non starter. Goyal has no cards to play. My prediction is that he will be given a take it or leave it proposition, at least from EY.

I suspect he has already gotten that final offer and all that's left is posturing until the offer is either accepted or rejected.

If he takes it, Jet has a chance. If he doesn't, EY wipes its hands, eats the loss and Jet tanks. If bankruptcy in India is anything like the US, Goyal's shares would be pretty much worthless. Then, the creditors move in and appoint a trustee to run the airline and/or manage assets. I suspect they would then cut a new deal with Etihad.

As I mentioned...I don't have a clue about how bankruptcy in India works so this is all wild ass speculating.

A key missing element in your though process is factoring Indian politics. There will be a national election by June and the government in power is highly unlikely to pull the rug on 23,000 jobs at Jet at a time when the opposition has been hammering the government for not creating enough jobs in the country. In India, a politican’s soul can likely. be bought for a small amount. I am 100 percent betting that company would be rescued and not go into bankruptcy.

CaliguyNYC · Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:33 pm

blrsea wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

I think as far as EY is concerned, my opinion is that they see the writing on the wall and consider their money mostly lost, putting them in the position of having nothing to lose. EY is experiencing financial problems of its own. They already bailed on Air Berlin. I think they are prepared to do the same with Jet.

If Jet is run into the ground, investors lose their current investment. If they pump a bunch of money to keep it afloat and management isn't drastically changed...Jet still goes under but investors lose even more money, so that's probably a non starter. Goyal has no cards to play. My prediction is that he will be given a take it or leave it proposition, at least from EY.

I suspect he has already gotten that final offer and all that's left is posturing until the offer is either accepted or rejected.

If he takes it, Jet has a chance. If he doesn't, EY wipes its hands, eats the loss and Jet tanks. If bankruptcy in India is anything like the US, Goyal's shares would be pretty much worthless. Then, the creditors move in and appoint a trustee to run the airline and/or manage assets. I suspect they would then cut a new deal with Etihad.

As I mentioned...I don't have a clue about how bankruptcy in India works so this is all wild ass speculating.

According to India's version of bankruptcy law (called IBC), once a company defaults on its loan, it has 180 days to set things right. If not, the lenders can take the company to Company Law Tribunal and be referred for bankruptcy proceedings. The NCLT appoints a resolution professional who will study the company books and then set a reserve price and call for bids from potential bidders. The company is sold to highest bidder. If no one bids or if they fail to match the reserve price, the lenders have the option to call for liquidating the business and selling it in parts. This is a very high level overview of how things work in India.

The only issue is that Jet has negative net worth. If it goes to liquidation, there won't be anything that the lenders will get. Their best bet lies in someone bidding and taking over the company fully.

Exactly. Banks just don't sit back and watch someone destroy the asset that guaranteed the loan. Once the defaults are triggered everything is set in motion. At some point the banks will take over (and I am SURE the GOI will hasten that if it comes to that). Can Goyal hurt Jet in the meantime, sure. Can he destroy it, no way. People on this board have no idea how finance works. And to be honest I feel like people here are rooting for Jet to go down (not just Goyal getting the boot). Such a strange waste of energy (not to mention ignoring the harm it does to Jet's employees which those people clearly care nothing for). That all said, India is still India and Indian aviation is anything but rational. So let's see.

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:39 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Unless another White Knight shows up... Who?

Lightsaber

Will SBI and banks walk away from the Rs 8,000 crores owed to them? Hell no!

Will Etihad walk away from the $$$$$ they invested for 24% + the 51% for jetprivilege? Unlikely.

Naresh Goyal, therefore, holds 2 of the cards in 3-card Monty!

The parties -- SBI, Etihad and Jet all need each other but only Jet knows how to leverage its position. This is why this drama has carried on so long.

Naresh Goyal is prepared to run Jet into the ground....something the other 2 partners are, as yet, not ready to do. So, to that extent, he holds the advantage, in this high stakes game. As much as many of you despise Naresh Goyal, you got to give him credit for willing to play the high stakes game.

I think as far as EY is concerned, my opinion is that they see the writing on the wall and consider their money mostly lost, putting them in the position of having nothing to lose. EY is experiencing financial problems of its own. They already bailed on Air Berlin. I think they are prepared to do the same with Jet.

If Jet is run into the ground, investors lose their current investment. If they pump a bunch of money to keep it afloat and management isn't drastically changed...Jet still goes under but investors lose even more money, so that's probably a non starter. Goyal has no cards to play. My prediction is that he will be given a take it or leave it proposition, at least from EY.

I suspect he has already gotten that final offer and all that's left is posturing until the offer is either accepted or rejected.

If he takes it, Jet has a chance. If he doesn't, EY wipes its hands, eats the loss and Jet tanks. If bankruptcy in India is anything like the US, Goyal's shares would be pretty much worthless. Then, the creditors move in and appoint a trustee to run the airline and/or manage assets. I suspect they would then cut a new deal with Etihad.

As I mentioned...I don't have a clue about how bankruptcy in India works so this is all wild ass speculating.

It amazes me how others are falling for the sunk cost fallacy. That money is lost. The question is ROI on new investment, which includes recovery of sunk costs.

I too believe the final offer has been submitted. Either Goyal, the banks, or other stockholders could reject the offer, but someone else must come up with opperating cash.

The current management staying is a non-starter. That we can agree on.

Much posturing will happen. Jet is worth more to EY than anyone else as they could save some prior investment (but not most of it). So the highest bid should come from the. However, they know it. Prior mistakes with Alitalia, AirBerlin, and Jet haunt EY and will keep management in line on their bid.

I think Goyal just hasn't realized his minimum is far above EY's maximum. I believe he is willing to go scortched Earth to win as much as possible. So what? That isn't worth half of what he thinks it is.

Sadly, we are heading to another Kingfisher unless Goyal grows up within a month or two.

This is like a house with a million dollars of debt in a market where it sells for a half million. Nothing will make a buyer make up the difference. The sooner all parties realize who has the gold makes the rules, the more likely Jet can be saved.

Lightsaber

unrave · Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:32 pm

The last update of the day comes from Tarun Shukla:

Looks like more trouble for Jet Airways. Hear pilots feel airline may default on salaries it had promised earlier. So worried unions are expected to hold meetings soon to decide future course.

Jet is expected to pay 50% of November salaries today. There is no word yet about paying December, January and February salaries

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:46 pm

unrave wrote:
The last update of the day comes from Tarun Shukla:
Looks like more trouble for Jet Airways. Hear pilots feel airline may default on salaries it had promised earlier. So worried unions are expected to hold meetings soon to decide future course.

Jet is expected to pay 50% of November salaries today. There is no word yet about paying December, January and February salaries

There is no way the past due dues will be paid. Sorry pilots/engineers/management.

It would take far too much investment to make everyone whole (better to liquidate). 50% is better than zero, but best to find a stable employer. I feel for employees.

Lightsaber

avier · Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:50 pm

edealinfo wrote:
A key missing element in your though process is factoring Indian politics. There will be a national election by June and the government in power is highly unlikely to pull the rug on 23,000 jobs at Jet at a time when the opposition has been hammering the government for not creating enough jobs in the country. In India, a politican’s soul can likely. be bought for a small amount. I am 100 percent betting that company would be rescued and not go into bankruptcy.

That's true. Letting this airline go down would be the final nail in the coffin when it comes to bashing the current govt. over employment issues in the country by the rival political parties. KF example here can't be used as reference as they were known to be doomed from the start. 9W has a better image than that for sure. Also if they let this airline sink now, the financial capital will be hit hardest with disrupted ops. and shortage of capacity, all right before election time. Some anti-9W nuts on here will defend that theory by talking of 6E's order books to make up for the slack, like they'll throw that new capacity in over night.

Edit : Aviation in India doesn't exist in a vacuum, said someone on a.net once.

Phosphorus · Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
unrave wrote:
The last update of the day comes from Tarun Shukla:
Looks like more trouble for Jet Airways. Hear pilots feel airline may default on salaries it had promised earlier. So worried unions are expected to hold meetings soon to decide future course.

Jet is expected to pay 50% of November salaries today. There is no word yet about paying December, January and February salaries

There is no way the past due dues will be paid. Sorry pilots/engineers/management.

It would take far too much investment to make everyone whole (better to liquidate). 50% is better than zero, but best to find a stable employer. I feel for employees.

Lightsaber

Kingfisher story has taught a lesson -- Indian aviation employees cannot easily change jobs in aviation, unless employer they leave cooperates. Unless the laws changed in the meantime, the problem, AFAIR, was the paperwork for airside access/security clearances -- a person could not hold these from multiple companies.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, so as long as (for example) Jet Airways has not released a person from their clearance lists, same person cannot apply for these clearances as an employee of another company, correct?

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:46 pm

I agree politics is important.
How much is Jet losing per day?
How long can they opperate with a few hundred million usd cash infusion? E.g., the MROs, leasing companies, and salaries are not paid. Jet is only flying because they are stealing. Eventually, enough will say no and they will Kingfisher. Without a huge investment and even larger debt write down, Jet is done.

I appreciate pro-Jet opinions, but they are so bankrupt right now that political will isn't enough. They need 300 million+ dollars/euros to keep functioning plus a thousand or two crore inr. Is the GoI going to kick in that much? That is my estimate for 2019 if a brutal restructuring happens ASAP.

Can the GoI spare that much? If not, create a business case for an angel investor. EY has been clear they are willing, but only on their terms.

I think for political reasons EY will have to pretend to always be engaged. But no one can make them hand over hundreds of millions of dollars. Make no mistake, MROs, leasing companies, and others expect to be paid in dollars/Euros, or their local currency. So when does EY get an attractive offer? Bluffing only works when the other side is desperate, greedy, or poorly informed.

Phosphorus wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
unrave wrote:
The last update of the day comes from Tarun Shukla:

Jet is expected to pay 50% of November salaries today. There is no word yet about paying December, January and February salaries

There is no way the past due dues will be paid. Sorry pilots/engineers/management.

It would take far too much investment to make everyone whole (better to liquidate). 50% is better than zero, but best to find a stable employer. I feel for employees.

Lightsaber

Kingfisher story has taught a lesson -- Indian aviation employees cannot easily change jobs in aviation, unless employer they leave cooperates. Unless the laws changed in the meantime, the problem, AFAIR, was the paperwork for airside access/security clearances -- a person could not hold these from multiple companies.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, so as long as (for example) Jet Airways has not released a person from their clearance lists, same person cannot apply for these clearances as an employee of another company, correct?

Jet has been releasing employees, in particular pilots.

Part of a free society is job transfer with adequate notice. For me, 2 weeks. Others, 2 or 3 months is fair. I can see pilots, if dues current, 6 months. But once dues fall behind, 2 week notice must be accepted (not Indian law. My opinion).

India has work to enter the developed world. Part of that is the ability to persue better jobs. I simply do not understand not being able to switch jobs.

I feel for employees. What can they do? Is their only hope EY?

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:15 pm

A little perspective:

Jet debt: 8,000+ crore
Kingfisher failed with 9,000 crore

AI:. 55,000 crore, half going to special purpose vehicle (taxpayers) and that is after receiving a huge amount of cash and planned 2,345 crore 'infueion' in 2019.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.moneycon ... 1.html/amp

Assuming Jet losses are similar to last quarter, about 11 crore per day or debt of 9,000 crore (8,000=$1.12 billion USD or growth of $0.14 billion USD per quarter is my estimate).

Above the $300 million usd + 2 crore, Jet needs another $50 million usd per month to cover losses.

When is it too much? I hope they turn around. Goyal seems determined to hold on despite that possibly dooming Jet.

This is facinating since I hold no stake.

Lightsaber

avier · Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:29 pm

NG's ego is killing his very own airline he started +25yrs back and grew so big. Sad.
The vibe most get of him now is that - If he can't have it (the airline) , then no one can".

CaliguyNYC · Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:31 pm

Lightsaber[/quote]

Kingfisher story has taught a lesson -- Indian aviation employees cannot easily change jobs in aviation, unless employer they leave cooperates. Unless the laws changed in the meantime, the problem, AFAIR, was the paperwork for airside access/security clearances -- a person could not hold these from multiple companies.
Please correct me if I'm wrong, so as long as (for example) Jet Airways has not released a person from their clearance lists, same person cannot apply for these clearances as an employee of another company, correct?[/quote]
Jet has been releasing employees, in particular pilots.

Part of a free society is job transfer with adequate notice. For me, 2 weeks. Others, 2 or 3 months is fair. I can see pilots, if dues current, 6 months. But once dues fall behind, 2 week notice must be accepted (not Indian law. My opinion).

India has work to enter the developed world. Part of that is the ability to persue better jobs. I simply do not understand not being able to switch jobs.

I feel for employees. What can they do? Is their only hope EY?

Lightsaber[/quote]

I hope so, your posts don't really convey you "feel for the employees". But I will take your word. Back to the discussion - You jump from savior to liquidate as the only options. Liquidation is RARELY what happens. So am totally confused by your rhetoric (again assuming you are pro Jet employees). Aviation is a national security issue as is employment. I hope the GOI is working behind the scenes on a plan (and their initial talks with Tatas makes me think they are). The next thing to happen is for the banks to take over Jet management (yes that happens before liquidation). Goyal gets sidelined at this point. Here the GOI should prop up Jet and foster a sale. Just like the US govt did for banks during the financial crisis. Restructure Jet and then sell to a competent Indian player (read Tatas) on the assurance they invest o good amount of capital. After that, work to fix the idiotic rules in Indian aviation around fuel tax (why not shift to have higher airport fees which equally affect all airlines rather than those that need to refuel in India) and cheap working capital.

Btw when I last flew Jet on 12/31 (I think this cash running out crisis had been going on for months at that point) - the Jet employees were super professional and positive on my flight. Kudos to them. They struck me as people that wanted their company to be saved and had pride in their work. What can the GOI, the nation and aviation enthusiasts do to help them. I hope something.

JoeCanuck · Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:06 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:

I hope so, your posts don't really convey you "feel for the employees". But I will take your word. Back to the discussion - You jump from savior to liquidate as the only options. Liquidation is RARELY what happens. So am totally confused by your rhetoric (again assuming you are pro Jet employees). Aviation is a national security issue as is employment. I hope the GOI is working behind the scenes on a plan (and their initial talks with Tatas makes me think they are). The next thing to happen is for the banks to take over Jet management (yes that happens before liquidation). Goyal gets sidelined at this point. Here the GOI should prop up Jet and foster a sale. Just like the US govt did for banks during the financial crisis. Restructure Jet and then sell to a competent Indian player (read Tatas) on the assurance they invest o good amount of capital. After that, work to fix the idiotic rules in Indian aviation around fuel tax (why not shift to have higher airport fees which equally affect all airlines rather than those that need to refuel in India) and cheap working capital.

Btw when I last flew Jet on 12/31 (I think this cash running out crisis had been going on for months at that point) - the Jet employees were super professional and positive on my flight. Kudos to them. They struck me as people that wanted their company to be saved and had pride in their work. What can the GOI, the nation and aviation enthusiasts do to help them. I hope something.

Don't shoot the messenger. The one person who doesn't care about the employees is the one person with the power to help them; Goyal.

Being critical of the business culture of the airline is not the same as being critical of the employees. It's because of the sad state of Jet, that one feels for the employees. From what I have read, most people are sympathetic to their plight. They are the greatest victims of this debacle. It seems they are not only trapped in jobs where they are forced to work for free, many are prevented from seeking work elsewhere.

Ideally, their best hope would be for Goyal to take a payout for his shares, and walk away...or the very least, cede effective control of the airline. If he gave a crap about the employees, that's what he would do. It would cause the least disruption to airline operations, he gets a big payday, removes roadblocks to investment, get salaries and bills paid and set the airline on a course to restructuring...while keeping the planes flying and people working.

The next best bet, is for creditors to pull the plug, force the current ownership and management out and get interim management to keep the airline running until it can be restructured under new ownership. This is more likely to have a negative affect on airline operations but the upside is that it's also a better way to cut Goyal and his merry band out of Jet entirely.

Or Goyal hangs on and Jet dies the death of a thousands cuts...leaving such a mess that the airline can't be saved, which puts thousands of employees on the street.

The choice is entirely up to him.

I might be totally out to lunch but that's how it looks to me.

sabby · Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:24 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:

Don't shoot the messenger. The one person who doesn't care about the employees is the one person with the power to help them; Goyal.

Being critical of the business culture of the airline is not the same as being critical of the employees. It's because of the sad state of Jet, that one feels for the employees. From what I have read, most people are sympathetic to their plight. They are the greatest victims of this debacle. It seems they are not only trapped in jobs where they are forced to work for free, many are prevented from seeking work elsewhere.

Ideally, their best hope would be for Goyal to take a payout for his shares, and walk away...or the very least, cede effective control of the airline. If he gave a crap about the employees, that's what he would do. It would cause the least disruption to airline operations, he gets a big payday, removes roadblocks to investment, get salaries and bills paid and set the airline on a course to restructuring...while keeping the planes flying and people working.

The next best bet, is for creditors to pull the plug, force the current ownership and management out and get interim management to keep the airline running until it can be restructured under new ownership. This is more likely to have a negative affect on airline operations but the upside is that it's also a better way to cut Goyal and his merry band out of Jet entirely.

Or Goyal hangs on and Jet dies the death of a thousands cuts...leaving such a mess that the airline can't be saved, which puts thousands of employees on the street.

The choice is entirely up to him.

I might be totally out to lunch but that's how it looks to me.

I think your observation is astute and those are the possible outcomes. As an outsider, it seems very greedy and selfish of Mr. Goyal to hope that the Indian Govt. and/or banks & share holder won't let the airlines crash instead of taking positive steps himself even if that means taking a backseat and relinquishing control. It is pretty clear that he doesn't give a darn about his own employees which is very sad. If he takes 9W down, it would be a sad day and disaster for Indian aviation and possibly a small hit to the economy as well. Other airlines may pick up some routes and traffic over the years but it would be the loss of Indian pax. What surprises me the most is that 9W doesn't have unrealistic ambition about routes or extravagant plans ala KF or disruptive workforce unions of some legacy airlines over the world which means the problem possibly lies at the top management.

Viman · Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:58 pm

The only one harming Jet employees is Naresh Goyal and his minions on social media, they have sheepishly gone underground after the recent spate of cancellations as they don't want to face the wrath of irate customers. If Naresh destroys jet he should branded as wilful defaulter and thrown in Jail.

dtw2hyd · Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:35 pm

Jet Airways filed a report with the regulator about the recent "news" in the media. Guess what, none of it is true.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf ... 175922.pdf

P1aneMad · Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:07 pm

Are the salaries of the Naresh Goyal social media cheerleaders behind too or is it only Jet employees that are getting shafted?

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:26 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Jet Airways filed a report with the regulator about the recent "news" in the media. Guess what, none of it is true.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf ... 175922.pdf

Probably legally true. If a leasor asks for and aircraft back, Jet could mutually agree and therefore avoid a grounding.

That doesn't explain missed flights:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.livemint ... 88843.html

We know a MRO complained about non payment and held engines. If Jet's opperations were dependable, the articles would be ignored.

What I noticed is the letter didn't state that jet was current on leases. The wording of your link was none grounded and returning on schedule. But was the schedule modified? Jet isn't receiving MAXes, so departing aircraft have no backfill.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:32 pm

A better article, leasors are negotiating instead of grounding (my take):

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... al-straits

It sounds as if Jet is avoiding a grounding by accepting early return?

This cannot go on forever. It is time for Goyal to so best for employees and sell.

Lightsaber

dtw2hyd · Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:46 pm

lightsaber wrote:
... But was the schedule modified? Jet isn't receiving MAXes, so departing aircraft have no backfill.

Lightsaber

It is possibly the culmination of several negative factors. Bad news come in bunches.

Bunch of spare engines stuck with MRO.
Engine lease-ends
Frame lease-ends.
Technical issues.

Couple of MAXs were on ferry flights, not sure which frames(NG or MAX) require engine normalization, I am guessing EGT issues.

Assuming laws are still intact, GECAS can request DGCA to deregister the aircraft and repo teams can move in. There is no need to ask for grounding.

vadodara · Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:46 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Don't shoot the messenger. The one person who doesn't care about the employees is the one person with the power to help them; Goyal.

Being critical of the business culture of the airline is not the same as being critical of the employees. It's because of the sad state of Jet, that one feels for the employees. From what I have read, most people are sympathetic to their plight. They are the greatest victims of this debacle. It seems they are not only trapped in jobs where they are forced to work for free, many are prevented from seeking work elsewhere.

Ideally, their best hope would be for Goyal to take a payout for his shares, and walk away...or the very least, cede effective control of the airline. If he gave a crap about the employees, that's what he would do. It would cause the least disruption to airline operations, he gets a big payday, removes roadblocks to investment, get salaries and bills paid and set the airline on a course to restructuring...while keeping the planes flying and people working.

The next best bet, is for creditors to pull the plug, force the current ownership and management out and get interim management to keep the airline running until it can be restructured under new ownership. This is more likely to have a negative affect on airline operations but the upside is that it's also a better way to cut Goyal and his merry band out of Jet entirely.

Or Goyal hangs on and Jet dies the death of a thousands cuts...leaving such a mess that the airline can't be saved, which puts thousands of employees on the street.

The choice is entirely up to him.

I might be totally out to lunch but that's how it looks to me.

Yes, Goyal owns 51%. But he has defaulted on several loans, leases, salaries and oil company dues. Time the creditors flushed him.

edealinfo · Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:35 am

Latest news;
Banks to convert Rs 800 crore and waive Rs 800 to Rs 1000 crore in debt and secure 51 percent of Jet equity. Stage 2 will be a rights issue priced at Ethihad quoted Rs 150 a share. Post rights issue, etihad would hold 40 to 46 percent and Naresh Goyal, the lord almighty, would hold 20 to 22 percent. Looks like the plans will continue to be fine tuned until Feb 21. The government, through its banks, won’t let Jet fall, as I predicted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dnaind ... 714002/amp

blrsea · Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:52 am

If planes are coming off leases, wonder why they didn't know about it in advance and inform passengers in advance? Last two days had sudden cancellations with 5 being grounded. If they were all being prepared for return, they could have managed the disruption more gracefully, no?

unrave · Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:25 am

The media is having a lot of fun speculating about Jet. Here is the financial express with a report about NG approaching Adani for emergency funding
https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... t/1459861/

And Jet Airways claims the planes will be back on air by 1FEB but the cancellations run well into next week.

edealinfo · Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:38 am

unrave wrote:
The media is having a lot of fun speculating about Jet. .

And, when does the Indian media ever report "fact"?

edealinfo · Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:43 am

lightsaber wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
That doesn't explain missed flights:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.livemint ... 88843.html

Lightsaber

What does, "The airline said in a statement that three planes grounded for engine normalization are expected to rejoin the fleet on Friday" in the article mean? "Engine Normalization"????? What the heck is that?

CaliguyNYC · Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:57 am

edealinfo wrote:
Latest news;
Banks to convert Rs 800 crore and waive Rs 800 to Rs 1000 crore in debt and secure 51 percent of Jet equity. Stage 2 will be a rights issue priced at Ethihad quoted Rs 150 a share. Post rights issue, etihad would hold 40 to 46 percent and Naresh Goyal, the lord almighty, would hold 20 to 22 percent. Looks like the plans will continue to be fine tuned until Feb 21. The government, through its banks, won’t let Jet fall, as I predicted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dnaind ... 714002/amp

Yup as expected. Now lets see if they actually push Goyal from management. Then perhaps this saga can end. Unfortunately EY plus Goyal will still have control. Funny how that happens.

edealinfo · Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:12 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Latest news;
Banks to convert Rs 800 crore and waive Rs 800 to Rs 1000 crore in debt and secure 51 percent of Jet equity. Stage 2 will be a rights issue priced at Ethihad quoted Rs 150 a share. Post rights issue, etihad would hold 40 to 46 percent and Naresh Goyal, the lord almighty, would hold 20 to 22 percent. Looks like the plans will continue to be fine tuned until Feb 21. The government, through its banks, won’t let Jet fall, as I predicted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dnaind ... 714002/amp

Yup as expected. Now lets see if they actually push Goyal from management. Then perhaps this saga can end. Unfortunately EY plus Goyal will still have control. Funny how that happens.

My hunch is that with 22%, Naresh Goyal (NG) will still tight for awhile, and plot and scheme to "some day" regain control - it is in his blood not to give up on his "baby"/creation. The winds blow constantly in India's highly charged political environment and NG how to play the game, having been at it for over 25 years.

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