MSPNWA wrote:Not remarkably older? That's just straight up denial of reality. AA has one of the youngest fleets and easily the youngest of the big 3. DL has the oldest of the big 3 and is battling with the oldest among all the US majors. AA's impending expenditures pale in comparison.
Let's start with actual numbers per airfleets.net
Delta: Average Age 16.5 years
American Mainline: Average Age 10.5 years
American Eagle: Average Age 16.7 years
MSPNWA wrote:You must not have done the math. In the end it's a math problem, and I've stated the results before in this forum. AA's higher debt is related to their young fleet position. They can afford to take their foot off the new plane gas and pay down debt with their cash.
Yet paying down debt with their cash isn't what they're doing. Their long term debt per their balance sheet has increased every year since the merger
MSPNWA wrote:On the other hand, DL has more aircraft on order and needs many more to clear the backlog of impending retirements.
Again let's use numbers if this is math
Delta has 311 aircraft on order
American has 250 on order
Of note there is that American's outstanding order book, while less than Delta's by 61 aircraft, is likely more expensive than Delta's in that they have 53 787-8/9s still to be delivered whereas Delta's order book at present is comprised predominantly of A220s (75) and 100 321neos. Sounds like more AA debt to me.
MSPNWA wrote:DL has over 600 aircraft that are 15+ years old--over 70% of its fleet.
Let's see some numbers for that please. The A319s, A320s, 717s, 757s, 767s, and MD80/90s have average ages of 15+. That's 573 aircraft... not over 600 again per airfleets. For this being a math problem you're not doing so hot with the actual math.
MSPNWA wrote:Even DL, a carrier that has a reputation for long airframe service lives, isn't getting a 30 year average.
Naturally not, but given they're currently at 16.5 it's not unreasonable to think that even with new aircraft coming in they couldn't hit 20 and still be okay. They do, contrary to your claim, have room to space this out as they have been doing.
MSPNWA wrote:DL has a little over 300 on order spread out over the next ~5 years. They need another 300 or so in the next 5 after that, and that's without considering potential growth (if we include potential used aircraft, the math is similar - they'll need more used airframes versus new to create the same effect. The exact math can be done based on the used aircraft age.). DL isn't in position to "spread out" deliveries. They've kicked the can down the road, and the backlog is coming. They need to be taking about 60+ deliveries for the next 10 years to clear the backlog. For illustration, they've only taken 180 new aircraft in the last ~5 years, and just in the last two years have they hit the ~50 range annually. For the next 10 or so years, large capital expenditures on tap for DL. That's a tough pill to cash flow in boom times, let alone if a downturn occurs.
I don't disagree you in saying that there are further orders to come and likely those that are larger than what we've been seeing, but it's impossible to know the mix of aircraft that DL will put forth in future orders. So at the end of the day give us a number eh if this is a math problem? Even if it's $15B they'll be sitting pretty compared to American. You haven't yet shown how AA's debt issue when compared to DL isn't an actual issue as you claim. What's the number?