Ryanair01 wrote:SWZ is probably more of a problem than an opportunity for QF, because it splits the market and requires cost duplication.
I think that the Eastern Suburbs and Inner West will always be better served by SYD than SWZ, along with inbound corporate fliers. But the toll roads will link SWZ pretty quickly to many of Sydney's residential suburbs (e.g. northern suburbs M2/7, western suburbs M4 and south/south west M5), especially when avoiding the inner city traffic delays and driving contra peak is taken into account. Those corridors are not small in terms of business fliers, especially M2/7. I doubt QF can completely ignore that, certainly in terms of MEL and BNE.
The rail link looks like it is going to be slow, 40 minutes via Leppington and/or 50 minutes via Blacktown/Parramatta and that assumes express services. A briefing I attended for work about two years ago said an express SWZ - Blacktown - Parramatta - Strathfield - City - North Sydney service would be economic whatever airport traffic looks like, because it links Sydney's 3 main CBDs, but 50 minutes from the airport feels long. Without the nut of CBD access cracked for inbound fliers, it seems difficult to imagine many foreign airlines will look at SWZ positively unless curfew busting is involved, they are a new comer who can't get slots or much cheaper landing fees are offered. Maybe AKL and DPS internationally?
What level of employee is still flying on business? Top-level execs obviously, but other than that is it mostly sales-types? The only business trips I have taken in recent years is to show my face to a client, our internal meetings are teleconferences and communication with the client via phone / email / teleconf. But I'm in IT, may be different to other industries.
The point is, Sydney is not split east / west like it once may have been. Wealth-wise, yeah. Not so the corporate hierarchy - and there are three main CBDs as you point out, one of them in the west. By the time SWZ opens, the current massive motorway-building frenzy will be complete, and many "white collar" homes will be closer time-wise to SWZ than to SYD. The Hills district for example is full of managerial-types, and of course the upper north shore. Part of the rationale for building SWZ after all is to serve the western-Sydney catchment. So it's a brave call if QF are saying "we ain't going there".
The trains ... so disappointing. Even the NSW govt seems blind to the benefits of HSR, or at least true express services. Melbourne is getting federal money for a dedicated airport track (mostly) within the existing rail corridor, why are the NSW pollies not pushing for same? They seem to see SWZ more as an opportunity to grab federal money for regular state infrastructure than as an opportunity to create a world-class facility. All the while their other hand is pushing this 'Aerotropolis' thing. But in true Sydney style, SWZ will probably be a success despite the state govt's bumbling.
Dark horse - Fed govt own SWZ as an 'investment', they will be looking to offload it ASAP. The guys that make the rules can profit from changing the rules, and by providing other incentives for airlines to use SWZ.
I know people fear SWZ will become another Montréal–Mirabel, but I don't see it. For all intents SYD is at capacity. They can tweak things here and there and promise the world with their master plans, but they have not really done anything since it was privatised near 20 years ago. Move the QF Jetbase, move freight, build new terminals. Too late, those projects should have been well underway already. You sell an airport to a bunch of investment bankers lead by the PM's favourite public servant, and you get short-term profit grabbing. Who'd have thought?
went from a DH8D to a B712 though so I'd probably have paid myself anyway to be honest)
