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DeltaXNA
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What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:27 pm

Which airlines would fly into there? What would WN frequencies and routes look like?
 
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Revelation
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:44 pm

Probably look like any other small airport in the shadow of a bigger airport: LGA, MDW, DCA, etc.
 
sccutler
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:45 pm

To be honest, I don't think all that much would change, other than an increase in WN frequencies.

AA wouldn't bother, Delta might add a few (but not much), and I expect Alaska to bail soon.

You might see an outlier or two, maybe Allegiant. Not Spirit.
 
WN732
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:47 pm

Probably like Oakland. You'd have a mixed array of mainline and regional, tons of WN but most big players would be there with token service.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:58 pm

If the gate cap at DAL went away, AA could establish a focus city at DAL with nonstop service to its hubs plus other top destinations such as ATL, AUS, BOS, DEN, DTW, FLL, IAH, HOU, MCI, LAS, MSP, MSY, EWR, MCO, STL, SAT, SAN, SFO, and TPA. While AA and DL both have hubs at LGA and JFK in NYC, AA's home market is the DFW Metroplex and DL's home market is Greater Atlanta. There are also airlines in East Asia and Europe such as AF, NH, OZ, BA, CI, MU, BR, JL, and KE that have more than 1 hub airport in their home markets.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:05 pm

The following adds would likely happen at DAL by WN (in addition to already announced upcoming WN nonstop routes out of DAL starting in January 2019) if the gate cap went away at DAL:
  • Addition of DAL-BUF, DAL-CVG, DAL-CLE, and DAL-EWR nonstop service
  • Revival of DAL-CRP and DAL-HRL nonstop service
  • DAL-TUS nonstop service extended to daily year-round nonstop service
  • Increased frequencies on some of the existing WN nonstop routes out of DAL
 
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compensateme
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:20 pm

I realize this will turn into a fan fiction thread, but let’s be realistic: DFW and DAL served 85M passengers last year, making the Metroplex the fourth largest domestic air market behind NYC, ATL and CHI. CHI houses three large hubs, and ATL handles a disproportionate amount of DL’s network flow traffic. AA’s DFW hub isn’t going to be on that level this generation, similarly because ATL is better positioned geographically to efficiently handle larger amounts of flow traffic —e.g. DFW can’t connect the massive amount of Florida traffic in the East, hence the need for CLT.

If the gate cap were removed, WN would expand somewhat. AA wouldn’t be interested, although DL-UA-AS May consider moving some capacity into DAL (almost undoubtedly at the expense of DFW). LCC will serve which ever airport was cheaper to operate from, but the opening of DAL isn’t going to stimulate significant traffic for them.

The short answer is: not much.
 
RamblinMan
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:22 pm

jplatts wrote:
If the gate cap at DAL went away, AA could establish a focus city at DAL with nonstop service to its hubs plus other top destinations such as ATL, AUS, BOS, DEN, DTW, FLL, IAH, HOU, MCI, LAS, MSP, MSY, EWR, MCO, STL, SAT, SAN, SFO, and TPA.


Just like they've done at MDW, right? Not saying it couldn't or wouldn't happen, or that I necessarily think it's a bad idea. BUT- just because it's what they'e done in the NYC market doesn't mean they would want to do it in the DFW metroplex market.
 
MartijnNL
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:30 pm

A few questions as a European who is not very familiar with Dallas Love Field:
- What does the gate cap mean?
- What does "token service" mean?
 
DDR
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:35 pm

AA tried DAL and decided their assets were better used at DFW so I do not think AA would add flights at DAL. I honestly think that if the gate cap went away, you would just see WN adding flights. As much as DL loves to cry foul, I don't think they would add any additional cities, just keep their ATL flights.
 
Vctony
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:36 pm

DAL would end up looking like a cross between MDW and HOU with a slightly larger WN operation, a slightly larger DL operation, and probably not much else other than maybe F9, B6, or G4. I don't believe AA or UA would even bother with it and DL (and pretty much everyone else) will still have their core Dallas - Fort Worth regional operations at DFW.

It's why the Wright Amendment is so ridiculous as DFW is no longer really threatened in any way by DAL.
Last edited by Vctony on Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
DDR
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:37 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
A few questions as a European who is not very familiar with Dallas Love Field:
- What does the gate cap mean?
- What does "token service" mean?


Hi MartijnNL,

gate cap means that at the present time, DAL cannot add any gates.

token service means just a few flights, one or two per day so the airline can say they serve the airport.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:56 pm

sccutler wrote:
AA wouldn't bother, Delta might add a few (but not much), and I expect Alaska to bail soon.


DDR wrote:
AA tried DAL and decided their assets were better used at DFW so I do not think AA would add flights at DAL.


AA had originally planned on resuming service out of DAL after the repeal of the Wright Amendment on October 13, 2014, but those plans were changed when the DOJ required AA to give up its 2 gates at DAL in order to allow the AA-US merger to take place. AA will be allowed to regain access to these 2 gates at DAL on April 26, 2024, and there was an article titled "Southwest, Delta, American and more object to Dallas' Love Field gate plan" (which can be found at https://www.dallasnews.com/business/love-field/2018/05/25/southwest-delta-american-object-dallas-love-field-gate-plan) which stated that AA objected to the City of Dallas's proposal to resolve the DL-WN gate controversy at DAL because "American argu[es that] the city’s proposal would illegally prohibit the Fort Worth-based carrier from serving the airport in the future."

There are indications (including in the Dallas Morning News article that I quoted) that AA might possibly resume service out of DAL on or after April 26, 2024. It is too early to tell at this point if AA is actually planning on resuming service out of DAL in 2024.
 
MSJYOP28Apilot
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:05 am

In the current terminal building, how many gates can be added without additional construction? DAL is relatively tight on space. Construction of more gates is expensive and takes time and planning assuming the space is there to do it. I imagine without the current restrictions, not much would change. If there is space in the current terminal to add more gates, they would do that and add service.
 
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compensateme
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:12 am

jplatts wrote:
sccutler wrote:
AA wouldn't bother, Delta might add a few (but not much), and I expect Alaska to bail soon.


DDR wrote:
AA tried DAL and decided their assets were better used at DFW so I do not think AA would add flights at DAL.


AA had originally planned on resuming service out of DAL after the repeal of the Wright Amendment on October 13, 2014, but those plans were changed when the DOJ required AA to give up its 2 gates at DAL in order to allow the AA-US merger to take place. AA will be allowed to regain access to these 2 gates at DAL on April 26, 2024, and there was an article titled "Southwest, Delta, American and more object to Dallas' Love Field gate plan" (which can be found at https://www.dallasnews.com/business/love-field/2018/05/25/southwest-delta-american-object-dallas-love-field-gate-plan) which stated that AA objected to the City of Dallas's proposal to resolve the DL-WN gate controversy at DAL because "American argu[es that] the city’s proposal would illegally prohibit the Fort Worth-based carrier from serving the airport in the future."

There are indications (including in the Dallas Morning News article that I quoted) that AA might possibly resume service out of DAL on or after April 26, 2024. It is too early to tell at this point if AA is actually planning on resuming service out of DAL in 2024.


AA’s goal is to make $$$$$. Adding service to DAL is counter productive to that goal — huge expenses, less connecting opportunities (which equates into more seats being sold to the local market for less), etc. The days of legacies absorbing large losses for market share are over. DFW/DAL is at 85M passengers — any growth beyond WN at DAL would simply canabilze DFW.
 
DeltaXNA
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:19 am

IF AA were to add service to DAL it would probably be ORD, CLT, LGA, big maybe for DCA and LAX. CR7s, CR9s, or E75s most likely.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:23 am

compensateme wrote:
AA’s goal is to make $$$$$. Adding service to DAL is counter productive to that goal — huge expenses, less connecting opportunities (which equates into more seats being sold to the local market for less), etc. The days of legacies absorbing large losses for market share are over. DFW/DAL is at 85M passengers — any growth beyond WN at DAL would simply canabilze DFW.


AA actually still serves more than one airport in some of the U.S. metro areas that have more than one commercial airport, including the following:
  • Baltimore/Washington region - DCA (AA hub), IAD, BWI
  • Greater Houston - IAH and HOU
  • Greater Los Angeles - LAX (AA hub), SNA, BUR, ONT, LGB
  • Greater Miami - MIA (AA hub), FLL, PBI
  • New York City - LGA (AA hub), JFK (AA hub), EWR, HPN, ISP, SWF
  • San Francisco Bay Area - SFO, OAK, SJC

AA would probably have resumed service out of DAL on October 13, 2014 if AA wasn't required by the DOJ to give up the 2 gates to VX in order to allow the AA-US merger to take place. AA also serves more than just its hub airports in the Baltimore/Washington region, Greater Los Angeles, Greater Miami, and the NYC metropolitan area.
 
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compensateme
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:40 am

jplatts wrote:
compensateme wrote:
AA’s goal is to make $$$$$. Adding service to DAL is counter productive to that goal — huge expenses, less connecting opportunities (which equates into more seats being sold to the local market for less), etc. The days of legacies absorbing large losses for market share are over. DFW/DAL is at 85M passengers — any growth beyond WN at DAL would simply canabilze DFW.


AA actually still serves more than one airport in some of the U.S. metro areas that have more than one commercial airport, including the following:
  • Baltimore/Washington region - DCA (AA hub), IAD, BWI
  • Greater Houston - IAH and HOU
  • Greater Los Angeles - LAX (AA hub), SNA, BUR, ONT, LGB
  • Greater Miami - MIA (AA hub), FLL, PBI
  • New York City - LGA (AA hub), JFK (AA hub), EWR, HPN, ISP, SWF
  • San Francisco Bay Area - SFO, OAK, SJC

AA would probably have resumed service out of DAL on October 13, 2014 if AA wasn't required by the DOJ to give up the 2 gates to VX in order to allow the AA-US merger to take place. AA also serves more than just its hub airports in the Baltimore/Washington region, Greater Los Angeles, Greater Miami, and the NYC metropolitan area.


AA doesn’t serve MDW, and it isn’t going to serve DAL. UIike the other airports you listed DAL is, like MDW, is a niche airport that exists for and because of WN. DFW is a large, established hub for AA; any service from DAL would merely canabalize DFW. No way that’s going to happen, AA’s end goal is to maximize profits, not market share.
 
ridgid727
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:30 am

Neeleman would land his new carrier there with a few flights.
 
seat1a
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:50 am

ridgid727 wrote:
Neeleman would land his new carrier there with a few flights.


My thoughts, too. DAL-ORD/LGA/MIA/LAX/SEA
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:11 am

jplatts wrote:
The following adds would likely happen at DAL by WN (in addition to already announced upcoming WN nonstop routes out of DAL starting in January 2019) if the gate cap went away at DAL:
  • Addition of DAL-BUF, DAL-CVG, DAL-CLE, and DAL-EWR nonstop service
  • Revival of DAL-CRP and DAL-HRL nonstop service
  • DAL-TUS nonstop service extended to daily year-round nonstop service
  • Increased frequencies on some of the existing WN nonstop routes out of DAL


Why would they bother with DAL-CRP and DAL-HRL? It's more important for those cities to be connected to the DFW hub.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:25 am

But how many more gates could realistically be built at DAL before it becomes gridlocked? It only has two runways now compared to the three it had before DFW opened. No one would want DAL to get gridlocked like LHR.
 
tmoney
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:42 am

Norwegian will start, Porter will get aerial-refueling capable Dash-8s just to do YTO-DAL, AC will do a Jazz service, and Hawaiian will do an A330 KOA-DAL. Level will think it has a chance.
Hobby admins will get super jealous.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:52 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would they bother with DAL-CRP and DAL-HRL? It's more important for those cities to be connected to the DFW hub.


CRP is actually one of the top destinations traveled to from DAL that isn't currently served nonstop from DAL. According to the DOT Domestic Consumer Airfare Report, there was an average of 84 passengers traveling between CRP and DAL per day (both directions included) in Q2 2017. CRP is also located in a larger market than AMA, LBB, and MAF are. There are also some destinations that are served nonstop out of DAL but not out of HOU on WN.

WN dropped DAL-HRL nonstop service to free up room at DAL for the new nonstop routes that were added subsequent to the repeal of the Wright Amendment. HRL, DAL, and MDW are also currently the only airports not served by AA that are served by WN. I agree with your point that it is more important for these cities to be connected to the DFW hub, but AA already does have 7 nonstops to CRP from DFW. On the other hand, while AA serves MFE and BRO in the Rio Grande Valley region, AA doesn't currently serve HRL.

Is the lack of DFW-HRL nonstop service really a huge hole, or is the demand between the DFW Metroplex and the Rio Grande Valley (including the Harlingen area) covered by the AA DFW-MFE nonstops, AA DFW-BRO nonstops, and connections between the DFW Metroplex and the Rio Grande Valley through Houston?
 
TSS
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:00 am

MSJYOP28Apilot wrote:
In the current terminal building, how many gates can be added without additional construction? DAL is relatively tight on space.

Looking at it on Bing Maps, none. Unless I'm wildly mistaken, the whole terminal at DAL was rebuilt within the last ten years or so. If I recall correctly there was a lot of discussion on here at the time about how the new terminal was designed to have the 20 gates allowed by the Wright amendment and no more, with no easy way to add gates in the future.

MSJYOP28Apilot wrote:
Construction of more gates is expensive and takes time and planning assuming the space is there to do it. I imagine without the current restrictions, not much would change. If there is space in the current terminal to add more gates, they would do that and add service.

A concourse, or just a one-sided "finger" really (imagine a much smaller version of LAX's Terminal 8), could be added without too much trouble on the side opposite the control tower, but that would only add 3-4 gates max. With the elimination of the crosswind runway, however, it looks like the southwest end of the main concourse could be extended fairly easily towards the west a bit.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:10 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
But how many more gates could realistically be built at DAL before it becomes gridlocked? It only has two runways now compared to the three it had before DFW opened. No one would want DAL to get gridlocked like LHR.


SAN is a single-runway airport, and there are over 22 million passengers who fly in and out of SAN each year, compared to 15 million passengers who fly in and out of DAL each year. There are over 27 million passengers who fly in and out of LGA each year, and LGA only has 2 runways. DCA does have 3 runways that intersect each other, and DCA also carries over 22 million passengers a year.

If both SAN and LGA can handle more passengers and more flights than DAL does, DAL can probably handle more flights.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:26 am

jplatts wrote:
CRP is actually one of the top destinations traveled to from DAL that isn't currently served nonstop from DAL. According to the DOT Domestic Consumer Airfare Report, there was an average of 84 passengers traveling between CRP and DAL per day (both directions included) in Q2 2017. CRP is also located in a larger market than AMA, LBB, and MAF are. There are also some destinations that are served nonstop out of DAL but not out of HOU on WN.

But CRP does have direct service to DAL with a stop at HOU on WN. It's fairly convenient. It doesn't require changing planes, and it's on a 737 rather than a regional jet. It's possible to bring carry on luggage into the cabin that would have to be checked at the gate on AA.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:37 am

jplatts wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
But how many more gates could realistically be built at DAL before it becomes gridlocked? It only has two runways now compared to the three it had before DFW opened. No one would want DAL to get gridlocked like LHR.


SAN is a single-runway airport, and there are over 22 million passengers who fly in and out of SAN each year, compared to 15 million passengers who fly in and out of DAL each year. There are over 27 million passengers who fly in and out of LGA each year, and LGA only has 2 runways. DCA does have 3 runways that intersect each other, and DCA also carries over 22 million passengers a year.

If both SAN and LGA can handle more passengers and more flights than DAL does, DAL can probably handle more flights.


But SAN doesn't act as a hub. DAL has multiple flights per day to many destinations. It wouldn't work too well if it had lots of delays. LGA is quite prone to delays. Hubs work best if they aren't close to maxed out on aircraft movements.
 
YRflier
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:42 pm

jplatts wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would they bother with DAL-CRP and DAL-HRL? It's more important for those cities to be connected to the DFW hub.


CRP is actually one of the top destinations traveled to from DAL that isn't currently served nonstop from DAL. According to the DOT Domestic Consumer Airfare Report, there was an average of 84 passengers traveling between CRP and DAL per day (both directions included) in Q2 2017. CRP is also located in a larger market than AMA, LBB, and MAF are. There are also some destinations that are served nonstop out of DAL but not out of HOU on WN.

WN dropped DAL-HRL nonstop service to free up room at DAL for the new nonstop routes that were added subsequent to the repeal of the Wright Amendment. HRL, DAL, and MDW are also currently the only airports not served by AA that are served by WN. I agree with your point that it is more important for these cities to be connected to the DFW hub, but AA already does have 7 nonstops to CRP from DFW. On the other hand, while AA serves MFE and BRO in the Rio Grande Valley region, AA doesn't currently serve HRL.

Is the lack of DFW-HRL nonstop service really a huge hole, or is the demand between the DFW Metroplex and the Rio Grande Valley (including the Harlingen area) covered by the AA DFW-MFE nonstops, AA DFW-BRO nonstops, and connections between the DFW Metroplex and the Rio Grande Valley through Houston?



Dallas area is frequently the second largest OD market for HRL according to consumer airfare report at around 135-145 passengers daily. This is second to MFE but not by much despite MFE having 6-7 dailies to DFW on America Eagle and BRO having four daily American Eagle flights to DFW. If it was important to WN, they could command the Dallas market for the valley by offering a non-stop to HRL from Lovefield (they did briefly in 2012 when they had 2 nonstops) Currently they are offering a second year of seasonal holiday nonstops to HRL from DAL. Someone posted WN loads recently and at HRL last year it looked as if the DAL holiday flight a were fetching 90%. I think one DAL flight to HRL would do well even if it meant trading in one of five HOU flights.
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:53 pm

Wow, a thread about Love Field. Is this discussion ever going to die?
 
cledaybuck
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
Probably look like any other small airport in the shadow of a bigger airport: LGA, MDW, DCA, etc.
I think it would look a lot like MDW (or maybe HOU). It wouldn’t look anything like DCA or LGA from a carrier standpoint.
 
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DL747400
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:17 pm

jplatts wrote:
If the gate cap at DAL went away, AA could establish a focus city at DAL with nonstop service to its hubs plus other top destinations such as ATL, AUS, BOS, DEN, DTW, FLL, IAH, HOU, MCI, LAS, MSP, MSY, EWR, MCO, STL, SAT, SAN, SFO, and TPA.


AA had the opportunity to do this back in 2000, but at the time their only interest and mission was putting Legend Airlines out of business. As soon as they succeeded in doing so, they pulled out of DAL a short time later.

AA "could" do lots of things, but right now I think they've got bigger fish to fry. Finish the merger integration first; focus on the other things later. Now about the increased MTC-related cancellations in the A330-300 fleet......
 
ODwyerPW
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:51 pm

I think JetsuiteX would serve there.
 
FRAborn
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:37 pm

Would being a 135 public charter exempt them from the current cap space? I'd figure they'd use RBD since Addison has limited parking.
 
FRAborn
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:37 pm

Would being a 135 public charter exempt them from the current cap space? I'd figure they'd use RBD since Addison has limited parking.
 
jplatts
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:29 am

FRAborn wrote:
Would being a 135 public charter exempt them from the current cap space? I'd figure they'd use RBD since Addison has limited parking.


The Wright Amendment Reform Act of 2006 (WARA) still imposes some restrictions on charter flights out of DAL, including the following:
  • All charter flights operated to or from DAL by air carriers that lease terminal gate space at DAL shall depart from and arrive at one of those leased gates, except for irregular operations, flights operated by an agency of the Federal Government, or flights operated by an air carrier under contract with an agency of the Federal Government (This provision of the WARA still applies to WN)
  • Charter flights out of DAL are restricted to destinations within the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia
  • No more than 10 charter flights per carrier per month to destinations outside of the states of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Alabama

Even though the WARA does allow JetSuiteX to operate charter flights out of nonterminal facilities at DAL if it doesn't lease any gates at DAL, the WARA does restrict the number of charter flights that JetSuiteX can operate from DAL to destinations outside of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Alabama.
 
FRAborn
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Re: What would DAL be like if the gate cap went away?

Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:52 pm

Thanks for the clarification! So if they ever decided to expand, they could probably operate in the Texas Triangle. I can't imagine them flying E135s anywhere else from the Dallas area.

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