With new planes coming on board next year, what are some likely new cities that COPA might fly into? What purpose would COPA serve for that city?

With the MAX, I could see SEA, which is shorter than EZE to PUJ, which is flown on the MAX. This would likely require an AS codeshare for feed.

I know the OP says USA, but also possible is YVR (which is 15 nmi longer than EZE to PUJ)...the idea being for YVR being to capture Asia traffic trying to avoid a transit via the USA, which would also break Aeromexico's monopoly on this market (to avoid a transit via Europe). There, CM could get codeshare traffic from multiple Asian carriers flying into YVR.

Most likely it could be SEA and SAN. For Canada, it will depend on a new Bilateral with Canada.

What do yall think about DFW, AUS, or ATL?

Don't think they'll jump into ATL, I could actually see them serving SEA as the West Coast is pretty underserved by both AV and CM out of the Americas. Maybe DEN? When F9 stopped flying to SJO there was a slightly large gap left.

I hope if they add new destinations their prices drop. They've had a large spike in the last couple of months. They're often at least 3x more expensive.

example: I booked AS SJO-LAX OW for $259. Copa was almost $450 OW.

TWA772LR wrote:

What do yall think about DFW, AUS, or ATL?

DFW would be a good choice.

Redwood839 wrote:

Don't think they'll jump into ATL, I could actually see them serving SEA as the West Coast is pretty underserved by both AV and CM out of the Americas. Maybe DEN? When F9 stopped flying to SJO there was a slightly large gap left.

I hope if they add new destinations their prices drop. They've had a large spike in the last couple of months. They're often at least 3x more expensive.

example: I booked AS SJO-LAX OW for $259. Copa was almost $450 OW.

CM already flies to DEN.

DTW delegation in 3...2...1

Does Copa fly to FLL?....I forget.

lavalampluva wrote:

DTW delegation in 3...2...1

Haha, you beat me to it.

IINM, MSY remains the only FAA medium-hub that they've yet gone into.

They've been there almost three years, recently upgauged from E190 to 737, and are averaging loads in the high 80s at sky-high advertised fares; so I dare say it's been a success for them.

Sorta surprised that they haven't tried another such market yet, most notably AUS.
Also surprised that they aren't in (large-hub) SAN either.

727LOVER wrote:

Does Copa fly to FLL?....I forget.

Yes, CM also flies to FLL.

Just in case, CM already flies to: BOS, IAH, LAX, MCO, IAD, JFK, TPA, ORD, FFL, MIA, MSY, SFO and DEN. And it has codeshare agreements with UA for EWR and IAH.

If they open SEA, it will be next year, as the first 5 B737 Max 9 that arrive this year will be used for SFO, EZE and MVD.

Another possibility is also SAN.

Kilgen wrote:

727LOVER wrote:

Does Copa fly to FLL?....I forget.

Yes, CM also flies to FLL.

Just in case, CM already flies to: BOS, IAH, LAX, MCO, IAD, JFK, TPA, ORD, FFL, MIA, MSY, SFO and DEN. And it has codeshare agreements with UA for EWR and IAH.

If they open SEA, it will be next year, as the first 5 B737 Max 9 that arrive this year will be used for SFO, EZE and MVD.

Another possibility is also SAN.

They fly to LAS as well

Kilgen wrote:

If they open SEA

Sincere doubts on that one.

The current 738s sometimes have to sacrifice up to two rows of seats to make it to SFO during the worst parts of the season... and they're going to launch a route that's 300mi longer?

7M9 is efficient, but not sure it's efficient enough to make up for the kind of payload hit they'd have to take in order to make SEA a nonstop.

I will add with a high degree of certainty that SAN is working very hard on landing COPA. As has been reported before on A.net months ago, there was a report that SAN was heavy into negotiations with the cx about service but an issue of FIS staffing during late hours (when apparently COPA wanted to arrive at Lindbergh Field) let to an impasse. The staffing issue at SDIA has been -- or is in the process of being -- solved and as I assume service to Latin America remains THE primary goal of the SDIA Route Planning Dept., the SAN folks are trying very hard to make it happen this time.

I know all of this is nothing conclusive but I personally feel SAN must be somewhere toward the top of COPA's list of potential US destinations. I do hope we hear an announcement in the not too distant future! (And if they want to land at SAN at midnight, bring it on!)

bb

SAN, SEA, and PDX are my top 3 guesses.

I'll go out on a limb here and go with AUS and RSW. A few times weekly on both.

bfitzflyer wrote:

I'll go out on a limb here and go with AUS and RSW. A few times weekly on both.

It’s laughable how little South American/ Latin American demand RSW has. I highly doubt Copa could make it work.

Kilgen wrote:

Just in case, CM already flies to: BOS, IAH, LAX, MCO, IAD, JFK, TPA, ORD, FFL, MIA, MSY, SFO and DEN. And it has codeshare agreements with UA for EWR and IAH.

Copa Airlines doesn't fly to Houston.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

With the MAX, I could see SEA, which is shorter than EZE to PUJ, which is flown on the MAX. This would likely require an AS codeshare for feed.

I know the OP says USA, but also possible is YVR (which is 15 nmi longer than EZE to PUJ)...the idea being for YVR being to capture Asia traffic trying to avoid a transit via the USA, which would also break Aeromexico's monopoly on this market (to avoid a transit via Europe). There, CM could get codeshare traffic from multiple Asian carriers flying into YVR.

It is not so much a matter of distance but of headwinds as route to either SEA or YVR is SE to NW going north. PTY-SFO takes an important hit - around two complete rows. EZE-PUJ is fairly straight south to north. Not sure if the MAX 9 can male it without a penalty hit.

SJOtoLIR wrote:

Kilgen wrote:

Just in case, CM already flies to: BOS, IAH, LAX, MCO, IAD, JFK, TPA, ORD, FFL, MIA, MSY, SFO and DEN. And it has codeshare agreements with UA for EWR and IAH.

Copa Airlines doesn't fly to Houston.

My mistake. I wanted to write IAD, which I wrote it after MCO. No wonder I missed LAS, as I was counting 13 destinations.

SANFan wrote:

I will add with a high degree of certainty that SAN is working very hard on landing COPA. As has been reported before on A.net months ago, there was a report that SAN was heavy into negotiations with the cx about service but an issue of FIS staffing during late hours (when apparently COPA wanted to arrive at Lindbergh Field) let to an impasse. The staffing issue at SDIA has been -- or is in the process of being -- solved and as I assume service to Latin America remains THE primary goal of the SDIA Route Planning Dept., the SAN folks are trying very hard to make it happen this time.

I know all of this is nothing conclusive but I personally feel SAN must be somewhere toward the top of COPA's list of potential US destinations. I do hope we hear an announcement in the not too distant future! (And if they want to land at SAN at midnight, bring it on!)

bb

Well, it must be in their list of priorities, as they had the permission to fly to SAN from the Panamanian Government. As you can see in the documentation they submitted last year to the DoT in "Application for Renewal of Exemption and Amended Foreign Air Carrier Permit of Compania Panamena de Aviacion, S.A.": https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=DOT-OST-2016-0104

The list of authorized destinations (up to last year) is in a pdf in here, SAN was destination # 96:
https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=DOT-OST-2016-0104-0002

If they haven't open it, it is because there must have been problems with scheduling or something on the SAN side.

What are the odds of Copa entering smaller international airports like KPVD, KBDL, KISP, KBUF, KPIT, KCMH, etc?

Is there much Northwest demand to PTY and points near-south? I don't see SEA.

Balloonchaser wrote:

What are the odds of Copa entering smaller international airports like KPVD, KBDL, KISP, KBUF, KPIT, KCMH, etc?

It's been public knowledge that PIT has been in talks with COPA for a while. I'd imagine the chances are pretty high there, at least.

Kilgen wrote:

If they haven't opened it, it is because there must have been problems with scheduling or something on the SAN side.

And as I said in my previous reply up-thread, the known-problem has been dealt with.

Fingers crossed for a new service announcement soon!

bb

Once again people are just naming their home airports.

There is little to no demand to South America from airports like PIT, PDX, and AUS. AUS has some demand to Central America, but not much.

IAH would be good, shot at the bow to United

slickvik wrote:

IAH would be good, shot at the bow to United

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about SAT?

What about SAT?
I WOULD LOVE IT!

What's the latest with UA and CM? In the past CM has avoided UA hubs. Is that relationship preempting an entry into Houston? DEN was quite a remarkable add at the time -- didn't CM pick it up after UA dropped it?

axiom wrote:

What's the latest with UA and CM? In the past CM has avoided UA hubs. Is that relationship preempting an entry into Houston? DEN was quite a remarkable add at the time -- didn't CM pick it up after UA dropped it?

I don't think UA ever flew between DEN and PTY.

FLYKTPA wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

I'll go out on a limb here and go with AUS and RSW. A few times weekly on both.

It’s laughable how little South American/ Latin American demand RSW has. I highly doubt Copa could make it work.

Are we supposed to take your word for it? Post some numbers, because as I've stated 100 times, from Bradenton to Marco Island, and everywhere in between in RSW catchment. For example my last trip to MDE I would've connected at PTY to use RSW instead of NS from MIA.

I cant be the only one, post the numbers

LAXdude1023 wrote:

slickvik wrote:

IAH would be good, shot at the bow to United

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

LAXdude1023 wrote:

slickvik wrote:

IAH would be good, shot at the bow to United

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

axiom wrote:

What's the latest with UA and CM? In the past CM has avoided UA hubs. Is that relationship preempting an entry into Houston? DEN was quite a remarkable add at the time -- didn't CM pick it up after UA dropped it?

CM and UA signed a 5 year alliance last year.

The problem with UA DEN flight to PTY is that it did not connect to any of CM flights, thus it could not use a feed at PTY vs the CM DEN flight which has a proper feed at PTY.

TWA772LR wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

slickvik wrote:

IAH would be good, shot at the bow to United

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

I hate to be that guy,but if you don’t wanna get laughed at by everyone on this webite please refrain from spouting the most random routes.Lets be honest SWA will never do PTY-HOU let alone fly anywhere near that area

TWA772LR wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

slickvik wrote:

IAH would be good, shot at the bow to United

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

I apologize if that sounded rude

Planes4you wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

I hate to be that guy,but if you don’t wanna get laughed at by everyone on this webite please refrain from spouting the most random routes.Lets be honest SWA will never do PTY-HOU let alone fly anywhere near that area

I don't see why the idea of WN on HOU-PTY is farfetched if they're already on HOU-SJO...

Planes4you wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

I hate to be that guy,but if you don’t wanna get laughed at by everyone on this webite please refrain from spouting the most random routes.Lets be honest SWA will never do PTY-HOU let alone fly anywhere near that area

The rumors from pilots (yes I know...) suggest their medium-term sights are set on Brazil, so Panama is the next logical destination for their expansion.

And your apology is accepted. You're one of the rare people on this site with that ability.

dcajet wrote:

axiom wrote:

What's the latest with UA and CM? In the past CM has avoided UA hubs. Is that relationship preempting an entry into Houston? DEN was quite a remarkable add at the time -- didn't CM pick it up after UA dropped it?

I don't think UA ever flew between DEN and PTY.

Yes they did. I remember when it was announced. I also looked at it as a potential flight routing when considering a trip to Panama.

Kilgen wrote:

axiom wrote:

What's the latest with UA and CM? In the past CM has avoided UA hubs. Is that relationship preempting an entry into Houston? DEN was quite a remarkable add at the time -- didn't CM pick it up after UA dropped it?

CM and UA signed a 5 year alliance last year.

The problem with UA DEN flight to PTY is that it did not connect to any of CM flights, thus it could not use a feed at PTY vs the CM DEN flight which has a proper feed at PTY.

Thanks - do you know where I can learn more about that alliance? (Rather than vaguely remember every time this topic comes up, haha)

I do seem to recal that CM stayed away from UA hubs in the past, but don't know if this was codified or simply coincidence. And there's plenty of evidence to suggest this strategy has changed now. So I'd put money on IAH, plus SAN, which is relatively large and wealthy.

axiom wrote:

Kilgen wrote:

axiom wrote:

What's the latest with UA and CM? In the past CM has avoided UA hubs. Is that relationship preempting an entry into Houston? DEN was quite a remarkable add at the time -- didn't CM pick it up after UA dropped it?

CM and UA signed a 5 year alliance last year.

The problem with UA DEN flight to PTY is that it did not connect to any of CM flights, thus it could not use a feed at PTY vs the CM DEN flight which has a proper feed at PTY.

Thanks - do you know where I can learn more about that alliance? (Rather than vaguely remember every time this topic comes up, haha)

I do seem to recal that CM stayed away from UA hubs in the past, but don't know if this was codified or simply coincidence. And there's plenty of evidence to suggest this strategy has changed now. So I'd put money on IAH, plus SAN, which is relatively large and wealthy.

Well, I don't think the full text of the alliance information is is public, but you can get some information from their anual report: https://copa.gcs-web.com/static-files/350c9563-6aab-455f-82dd-f7041f019b16

Thanks. Here's the relevant stuff, for those interested (or who needed a refresher like me). Joint marketing and code-sharing -- realized they had this, but not that they have antitrust immunity. That answers a lot of my questions.

In brief:
"Copa began its strategic alliance with Continental in 1998. Since then, Copa, Continental and Continental’s successor,
United Airlines, or “UAL” or “United,” have conducted joint marketing and code-sharing arrangements. On October, 2010, Continental
merged with United Airlines. The combined carrier took the United Airlines name but uses the former Continental’s livery and logo. All
of the service and alliance agreements we had in place with Continental have been transferred to the combined UAL entity. We believe
that Copa’s co-branding and joint marketing activities, which continue with UAL, have enhanced its brand in Latin America, and that
the relationship with UAL has afforded it cost-related benefits, such as improved purchasing power in negotiations with aircraft vendors
and insurers. We have reached a mutually beneficial arrangement with UAL and extended the term, and continue with, an updated
alliance agreement from May 2016 forward."

The more interesting stuff:
"On October 1, 2010, Continental merged with United Airlines and became a wholly-owned subsidiary of UAL. All the
benefits from our previous alliance with Continental were recognized by UAL. Our alliance relationship with Continental enjoyed a
grant of antitrust immunity from the U.S. Department of Transportation, or “DOT.” The DOT issued a “route transfer order” document
after Continental merged with UAL, whereby the existing antitrust immunity grant between Continental and Copa Airlines is now in
effect between UAL and Copa Airlines.
As a result of our alliance, we have benefited from Continental’s and now UAL’s expertise and experience over the years.
For example, prior to July 2015 when we launched our own frequent flyer program, ConnectMiles, we adopted Continental’s OnePass
(now UAL’s MileagePlus) frequent flyer program and rolled out a co-branded joint product in most of Latin America, which enabled
Copa to develop brand loyalty among travelers. The co-branding of the OnePass (now MileagePlus) loyalty program helped Copa to
leverage the brand recognition that Continental already enjoyed across Latin America and has enabled Copa to compete more
effectively against regional competitors such as Avianca and the Oneworld alliance represented by American Airlines and LATAM
Airlines. We also share UAL’s Sceptre inventory management software, which allows Copa to pool spare parts with UAL and to rely
on UAL to provide engineering support for maintenance projects. We have also been able to take advantage of UAL’s purchasing
power and negotiate more competitive rates for spare parts and third-party maintenance work. In addition to the Sceptre system, we
have adopted several important information technology systems, such as the SHARES computer reservation system in an effort to
maintain commonality with UAL."

You only scratched the surface, 2 directors in CM's Board of Directors are/were from UA: John Gebo: SVP, Financial Planning & Analysis at United Airlines. Andrew Levy CFO of United (well, he used to be UA CFO until a few months ago, so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets replaced with another UA person if he quits the board or when his term is up).

CM has avoided only the old CO hubs: EWR and IAH, because those are flown by UA planes. But the old UA hubs are served by CM: ORD, DEN, LAX, SFO and IAD.

Codesharing between UA and CM before last year was mostly at the PTY side, but last year, they expanded their codeshare in the US. This map was of all the codeshares in the US between UA and CM last year (May, 2017):

Maps generated by the Great Circle Mapper (http://www.gcmap.com) - copyright © Karl L. Swartz.

Most likely all that codeshare data will signal where CM will open next. But then again, in an interview with CAPA in June: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/video/copa-we-like-the-size-of-the-max-10-we-will-use-them-in-our-highest-load-factor-markets-759, CM CEO, Pedro Heilbron said that they may still open up to 3 more destinations this year, this was after announcing that they were going to open FOR, SSA, BGI and PVR. Then a few weeks later they announced SLA. Thus they may potentially open 2 more destinations still, and I wouldn't be surprised if they open at least 1 in the US. If I were a betting person, I would say that it would be SAN, as I don't think they will open SEA this year as the first B737 Max 9 arrive this month to CM and they most likely won't open a new route with a new plane this soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if they open SEA next year with more destinations in Brazil as well (as last year they said that they will open 4 destinations in Brazil starting 2018; 2 in the north (which they already opened: FOR and SSA) and 2 in the south, most likely next year).

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Once again people are just naming their home airports.

There is little to no demand to South America from airports like PIT, PDX, and AUS. AUS has some demand to Central America, but not much.

I know ACAA people have been talking to COPA but PIT only happens with a generous subsidy like most of their other international service. It can never stand without it. Unless PIT wants to offer the subsidy in semi-perpetuity, kind of like how BA is operating BWI, I just don't see CM wasting an aircraft going there.

I don't think any airport can really compete with what PIT has to offer in terms of subsidies. As of now, PIT has the best air service incentive plan among most medium and even large sized airports. If PIT wasn't offering so much, they wouldn't have BA. There might not be any demand from PIT to Central or South America, I don't have numbers in front of me. The two largest Central and South American markets in the Midwest are Chicago and Detroit.

flymco753 wrote:

I don't think any airport can really compete with what PIT has to offer in terms of subsidies. As of now, PIT has the best air service incentive plan among most medium and even large sized airports. If PIT wasn't offering so much, they wouldn't have BA.

Yet PIT didn't offer BA much. About the same as what Nashville paid, less than what New Orleans paid, and significantly less than what BWI puts on the table. British Airways expands to markets where they see long term success, not to whomever offers the biggest subsidy.

IMHO,
Before or while opening new U.S. destinations, CM would need to increase frequencies to MIA, FLL (almost up to double daily), TPA, MSY, LAS, ORD (seasonal red-eyes) and BOS (seasonal red eyes).
While there might be a market for PTY (hub) to new destinations in Florida, like PBI, RSW and JAX, demand for those may prove to be quite seasonal or weekend only back ups to MIA/FLL and MCO if year-around.
CM flying to both MIA and FLL has worked relatively well, so one shouldn't rule out that CM has been looking for back-up capacity at BWI for IAD, PVD for BOS, MKE/MDW for ORD or even ONT/SNA for LAX and SJC for SFO, specially if CM figures out how to deploy the crew flying into one airport to depart from another in the same metro area.
CM might be better off talking to DL and get to CM code-share on DL ATL-PTY and get DL to increase frequency, instead of starting E190 (?) PTY-ATL, but if CM does code-share with SkyTeam KL and AF, why not with DL to ATL?
However, CM talking to AA to get it to fly DFW/CLT-PTY code-sahre w/CM would be tough. There's market for DFW-PTY (hub) as AV hasn't left DFW even if DFW isn't an Star Alliance hub. CM has no business in CLT (unless AA wants to code-share), but if CM wants North Carolina, RDU O/D might prove to be more attractive.
CM should take advantage of its E190 and offer 3-4 weekly PTY-HOU before WN decides to fly to PTY from there. CM already knows which days of the week, which season, UA PTY-IAH-PTY have capacity constrains.
PTY-AUS or PTY-SAT might work even as UA IAH-PTY complement/back-up but if AV hasn't started SAL-SAT/AUS yet, even with sizeable O/D, chances CM would add one of those are a bit slim.
East Coast: PHL could probably sustain some kind of PTY (hub) service, PIT not that much; Rule out BDL, at least for now. CM to SWF would only happen if CM is so desperate to add capacity to NYC and can't get that premium mid-afternoon slot @ JFK with quick turn-around.
In the Midwest: DTW and STL, both would be challenging; MCI and CLE - no chance, CVG perhaps could have more draw; MSP is interesting but flying time between MSP and PTY may compare that route to a PTY-California.
West Coast, seems PHX is a hole in CM network and so is SAN. Question is if SAN could be served via TIJ. SEA non-stop with B737MAX may work but SMF and PDX most likely can't sustain service to PTY.
My