The question of capacity on existing routes is interesting. Are there any US routes beyond MSY which are less than daily, or where there are obvious needs in demand? No reason why routes -need- to be daily, but it stands to reason that the marginal cost of new capacity in markets like MSY would be less than adding a new station, if the demand is there.

dfwjim1 wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

What do yall think about DFW, AUS, or ATL?

DFW would be a good choice.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Three carriers on IAH-PTY would be insane. I think if CM were going to choose a Texas destination, DFW would be a great E-190 route. DFW-Central America is very large and DFW-South America has some demand as well.

I agree that CM could add service to DFW out of PTY, and DFW is also already served by 3 foreign Star Alliance carriers (AC, TA, and LH) in addition to UA.

dcajet wrote:

I don't think UA ever flew between DEN and PTY.

UA DEN-PTY 7x weekly with 73G was in service from December 2014 till September 2015.
It did operate later as seasonal service from December 2015 to February 2016; twice a week.
Finally, CM PTY-DEN 4x weekly with 738 started in December 2017 and UA DEN-PTY never came back.

Regards.

flyPIT wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

I don't think any airport can really compete with what PIT has to offer in terms of subsidies. As of now, PIT has the best air service incentive plan among most medium and even large sized airports. If PIT wasn't offering so much, they wouldn't have BA.

Yet PIT didn't offer BA much. About the same as what Nashville paid, less than what New Orleans paid, and significantly less than what BWI puts on the table. British Airways expands to markets where they see long term success, not to whomever offers the biggest subsidy.

BWI is daily. MSY/BNA are 4/5x weekly. PIT is 3x weekly. BA doesn't seem to shy away from US subsidies as of late although AUS didn't need any to get service.

Without a generous subsidy CM doesn't touch PIT. Even with said subsidy I highly doubt it's more than once or twice a week, possibly seasonal.

izbtmnhd wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

I don't think any airport can really compete with what PIT has to offer in terms of subsidies. As of now, PIT has the best air service incentive plan among most medium and even large sized airports. If PIT wasn't offering so much, they wouldn't have BA.

Yet PIT didn't offer BA much. About the same as what Nashville paid, less than what New Orleans paid, and significantly less than what BWI puts on the table. British Airways expands to markets where they see long term success, not to whomever offers the biggest subsidy.

BWI is daily. MSY/BNA are 4/5x weekly. PIT is 3x weekly. BA doesn't seem to shy away from US subsidies as of late although AUS didn't need any to get service.

Without a generous subsidy CM doesn't touch PIT. Even with said subsidy I highly doubt it's more than once or twice a week, possibly seasonal.

PIT is starting out at 4x weekly actually. As far as subsidies go, for PIT to land year round service on BA they got a bargain. I'll stand by my point that BA looks at long term market potential and viability vs. short term subsidy. OAK aside BA has a good track record of picking markets that work for them.

I agree on COPA, it would take a long term financial commitment for them to serve PIT. One other thing PIT could do is get both Apple Vacations and Vacation Express to get on board with tour packages to Panama, and for them to use PTY as a gateway to other regional tourist hot spots such as Costa Rica and Cartagena.

flyPIT wrote:

izbtmnhd wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

Yet PIT didn't offer BA much. About the same as what Nashville paid, less than what New Orleans paid, and significantly less than what BWI puts on the table. British Airways expands to markets where they see long term success, not to whomever offers the biggest subsidy.

BWI is daily. MSY/BNA are 4/5x weekly. PIT is 3x weekly. BA doesn't seem to shy away from US subsidies as of late although AUS didn't need any to get service.

Without a generous subsidy CM doesn't touch PIT. Even with said subsidy I highly doubt it's more than once or twice a week, possibly seasonal.

PIT is starting out at 4x weekly actually. As far as subsidies go, for PIT to land year round service on BA they got a bargain. I'll stand by my point that BA looks at long term market potential and viability vs. short term subsidy. OAK aside BA has a good track record of picking markets that work for them.

I agree on COPA, it would take a long term financial commitment for them to serve PIT. One other thing PIT could do is get both Apple Vacations and Vacation Express to get on board with tour packages to Panama, and for them to use PTY as a gateway to other regional tourist hot spots such as Costa Rica and Cartagena.

My bad -- 3/4x weekly for PIT.

I don't think that's a bad idea but CM still has avenues to expand or open new US markets which are more business oriented. PTY isn't exactly CUN or PUJ.

Never, say, never with PIT but I think CM will be a very hard catch.

NWADTWE16 wrote:

FLYKTPA wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

I'll go out on a limb here and go with AUS and RSW. A few times weekly on both.

It’s laughable how little South American/ Latin American demand RSW has. I highly doubt Copa could make it work.

Are we supposed to take your word for it? Post some numbers, because as I've stated 100 times, from Bradenton to Marco Island, and everywhere in between in RSW catchment. For example my last trip to MDE I would've connected at PTY to use RSW instead of NS from MIA.

I cant be the only one, post the numbers

Source: Diio

RSW- South America / Latin America demand both ways combined,for a 12 month sum ending May 18 is 25,378 passengers or around 70 passengers a day.

TPA- South America/ Latin America for the same time frame was 261,430 passengers. And all TPA has is 1x daily Copa service.

Copa would have a difficult time making RSW-PTY work because the market isn’t very large.

BWI-PTY will happen, will it be Copa or Southwest?

SJOtoLIR wrote:

dcajet wrote:

I don't think UA ever flew between DEN and PTY.

UA DEN-PTY 7x weekly with 73G was in service from December 2014 till September 2015.
It did operate later as seasonal service from December 2015 to February 2016; twice a week.
Finally, CM PTY-DEN 4x weekly with 738 started in December 2017 and UA DEN-PTY never came back.

Regards.

Thanks for the clarification; did not have that one on my radar screen. Does not appear it was a smashing success for UA.

FLYKTPA wrote:

Source: Diio

RSW- South America / Latin America demand both ways combined,for a 12 month sum ending May 18 is 25,378 passengers or around 70 passengers a day.

TPA- South America/ Latin America for the same time frame was 261,430 passengers. And all TPA has is 1x daily Copa service.

Copa would have a difficult time making RSW-PTY work because the market isn’t very large.

Reliable numbers for TPA and RSW/PBI Latin America are hard to calculate since TPA traffic uses MCO and RSW/PBI uses FLL/MIA.
CM has E190 so perhaps 3-4 times per week PTY-RSW E190 might work.
And I'd dare to day the same about PTY-PBI.

czek6 wrote:

BWI-PTY will happen, will it be Copa or Southwest?

My bet, CM.
Those days it needs extra seats day-time to IAD.

2travel2know2 wrote:

FLYKTPA wrote:

Source: Diio

RSW- South America / Latin America demand both ways combined,for a 12 month sum ending May 18 is 25,378 passengers or around 70 passengers a day.

TPA- South America/ Latin America for the same time frame was 261,430 passengers. And all TPA has is 1x daily Copa service.

Copa would have a difficult time making RSW-PTY work because the market isn’t very large.

Reliable numbers for TPA and RSW/PBI Latin America are hard to calculate since TPA traffic uses MCO and RSW/PBI uses FLL/MIA.
CM has E190 so perhaps 3-4 times per week PTY-RSW E190 might work.
And I'd dare to day the same about PTY-PBI.

czek6 wrote:

BWI-PTY will happen, will it be Copa or Southwest?

My bet, CM.
Those days it needs extra seats day-time to IAD.

Yes, it's tough to calculate Florida metro demand because of the proximity between major airports. Nevertheless, I would put the odds of CM at PBI far above RSW. The demographics of the latter are just -so- much more Anglo. It's not like other, older Florida urban regions, demographically. Cologne service? Widebodies to MSP for spring break? Sure. Connections to South America? Not yet. Maybe one day.

remember that copa has an ageing fleet of -700's and 800's. CM will continue to "inherit" those planes to WINGO to continue on their LCC business plan. CM's eldest 737 is from 2000, and the 800's date from 2003. I don't see CM adding more routes, but consolidating what they have, increasing capacity rather than frequencies. This shows that some argentinian flights leave between 30 mins of each other.

izbtmnhd wrote:

BA doesn't seem to shy away from US subsidies as of late although AUS didn't need any to get service.

That's not a completely accurate representation:
Neither AUS nor MSY gave a direct subsidy to BA to bring the service... BOTH however waived initial fees/costs/charges for their services and both pledged advertising minima within their stateside regions.

The NOCVB and Visit New Orleans (independently of the aviation authority) also set aside more than $1million in revenue guarantees to be used only if the flight failed to meet undisclosed revenue targets in the first few years, which to my knowledge has never been tapped.

Wouldn't shock me if AUS had a similar independent/private offer.

axiom wrote:

The question of capacity on existing routes is interesting. Are there any US routes beyond MSY which are less than daily, or where there are obvious needs in demand? No reason why routes -need- to be daily, but it stands to reason that the marginal cost of new capacity in markets like MSY would be less than adding a new station, if the demand is there.

MSY was recently upgauged from Ejet to 73G, and is likely to go 738 within a short time. So there's capacity being added, just not frequency.

alggag wrote:

Planes4you wrote:

TWA772LR wrote:

What about PTY-HOU as a indirect shot at WN by UA?

I hate to be that guy,but if you don’t wanna get laughed at by everyone on this webite please refrain from spouting the most random routes.Lets be honest SWA will never do PTY-HOU let alone fly anywhere near that area

I don't see why the idea of WN on HOU-PTY is farfetched if they're already on HOU-SJO...

Agreed lots of business travel to PTY. I think it's probably the most logical destination for WN besides BOG if they are going to south america from HOU.

slickvik wrote:

alggag wrote:

Planes4you wrote:

I hate to be that guy,but if you don’t wanna get laughed at by everyone on this webite please refrain from spouting the most random routes.Lets be honest SWA will never do PTY-HOU let alone fly anywhere near that area

I don't see why the idea of WN on HOU-PTY is farfetched if they're already on HOU-SJO...

Agreed lots of business travel to PTY. I think it's probably the most logical destination for WN besides BOG if they are going to south america from HOU.

Issue here, who’s going to fly HOU-PTY?
WN or CM?
My bet: CM.

slickvik wrote:

alggag wrote:

Planes4you wrote:

I hate to be that guy,but if you don’t wanna get laughed at by everyone on this webite please refrain from spouting the most random routes.Lets be honest SWA will never do PTY-HOU let alone fly anywhere near that area

I don't see why the idea of WN on HOU-PTY is farfetched if they're already on HOU-SJO...

Agreed lots of business travel to PTY. I think it's probably the most logical destination for WN besides BOG if they are going to south america from HOU.

Ok nitpicking but PTY is still part of North America, not South America.