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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:16 am

It's funny that Abu Dhabi's main English language news paper is cheers and applauds anything EY has done. Last week they were congratulating EY on it's very successful turnaround after losses were 'successfully narrowed to $1.5bn".
 
BestWestern
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:39 am

The white elephant that is the midfield terminal is no longer needed. I wonder if it will just be mothballed at this stage of construction?

The 320/787/350 model makes sense, and their relationship with LH group can help them into the Star Alliance, which gives them a strong new feed globally.

The EY service is excellent. I wish them the best.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:50 am

BestWestern wrote:
The white elephant that is the midfield terminal is no longer needed. I wonder if it will just be mothballed at this stage of construction?

The 320/787/350 model makes sense, and their relationship with LH group can help them into the Star Alliance, which gives them a strong new feed globally.

The EY service is excellent. I wish them the best.

I'm amazed how far EY has fallen. Instead of not finishing the terminal, something else needs to be done.

Lightsaber
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IndianicWorld
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:27 am

planemanofnz wrote:
IndianicWorld wrote:
The talk of trying to keep routes like SYD if you get rid of 90% of their network is just not going to work.

I think SYD could survive if LHR, FRA and CDG all survive, similar to how BI's MEL service survives because of its LHR services.

For O&D to the UAE, they could offer more reasonable prices, relative to distance. Often, SYD - LHR is cheaper than SYD - AUH!

Cheers,

C.


Possibly, but at the end of the day, it would be a far thinner route in terms of demand than today. It is also a long route which challenges the operating model more in overall terms. It all just depends on what the ultimate plan looks like.

As for fares, many carriers have the same model of yield management than EY do. Connection pax fill seats over 2 legs to get to a destination, which often competes with numerous other carriers, whilst someone flying a route like MEL-AUH-MEL would be rarer. Just the way things pan out as frustrating as that is.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:04 am

BestWestern wrote:
The white elephant that is the midfield terminal is no longer needed. I wonder if it will just be mothballed at this stage of construction?

The 320/787/350 model makes sense, and their relationship with LH group can help them into the Star Alliance, which gives them a strong new feed globally.

The EY service is excellent. I wish them the best.


One has to wonder down the line which EY will choose---Lufthansa Group, or SkyTeam members. Turkish Airlines would likely object to EY into Star Alliance, but would Saudia object to EY into SkyTeam?

The problem for EY is that they don't really need the A380, but can they find an off-load partner? 200-300 seats is the sweet spot, especially if W is introduced. Sydney (currently double-daily A388), Melbourne (to be double-daily 299-seat B789 from NW18), and New York (to be 1 daily A388 from W18) are likely the only ULH destinations that survive (defining ULH as 5000 nmi or more)...on smaller planes. ICN can be reached on the B789 when the A333s are disposed of, and Australia and New York can get the A35K as well (HKG could get the B789 or A35K). Regional destinations would get the A321 or A321LR unless it's too far for either. BTW, Hong Kong would be within reach on mileage on the A321LR, but likely requires wide-body capacity.

As for the long-haul routes, down the line, I'd leave MEL as is, but change Sydney and New York to the A35K, keeping some of that order. Also not talked about as a threat, except dealing with Australasia, is Turkish Airlines, which has built a huge network using the A330 and B77W, much smaller planes (except the B77W); it has no planes with more than 2 engines except for the 4 paid-off A343s.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:44 am

So, the second shoe has fallen WRT closing airspace around Qatar.... but it didn't save EY or its "equity alliance."
What a stroke of luck for DWC. The shrunken networks of QR and EY will have a primary beneficiary... EK and Dubai's airports. Without the new IST operational, TK will be late to the party.
 
sibibom
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:26 am

Honestly, the more they cut and shrink the network, the more its likely to fail. They don't have a realistic plan

1) The hub works on connecting passengers from various parts of the world. I get it some of the destinations may not be working for them, but if they are cutting places like Dhaka, which ironically has enough O&D to support one flight daily if not more, something is seriously wrong.
2) They are downgrading at an insane pace, EY204 which was a A380 between AUH and BOM is now an A321 on few days, A332-33 on others. AUH is one of few places which has plenty of bilaterals left to expand in India. Thats an advantage no ME3 or many Asian airlines have with respect to India.
3) Why is 9W doing the heavy lifting to and fro India? EY has grounded fleet, 9W has a shortage and ignoring domestic network to funnel thru AUH. It is insane.
4) Whats the point of dumping A330s, B777 and A380s with decent products for shiny new planes? Keep them longer, and try and delay the new planes! A320neos will get other takers and so will B787-9s, or sell it to lessors. They to cancel A350 and B777X or indefinitely delay them.
5) If they want to become a regional player whats the point of the Residents and Apartments and over the top premium products? whats the point of spending so much to make, install and market these products?
6) They have spent billions on a new Mid-Field terminal, with no planes or destinations what will happen to this investment.

Easiest solution....? The ruler needs to throw a few billions (Oil is finally up) and save and salvage the situation or just complete shut shop and sell to EK
 
GRJGeorge
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
BestWestern wrote:
The white elephant that is the midfield terminal is no longer needed. I wonder if it will just be mothballed at this stage of construction?

The 320/787/350 model makes sense, and their relationship with LH group can help them into the Star Alliance, which gives them a strong new feed globally.

The EY service is excellent. I wish them the best.

I'm amazed how far EY has fallen. Instead of not finishing the terminal, something else needs to be done.

Lightsaber


Isn't a contributing factor to EY's problems the AUH terminal.
At least with the new terminal and a smaller EY it will be a joy for passengers to transfer and move through such a spacious airport.

For the last 3 years I have avoided EY mainly due to two reasons, even when they offered slightly better fares or better times:

1) The terminal(s) were so cramped, bused to aircraft most of the time, felt like a maze and just some parts feeling old and dark...DOH (and DXB in a way) is just so much more pleasant.
2) Their flip-flopping on deciding what to operate on the JNB route...we still experience customers saying they don't want to use EY because the last they remember is the Jet Airways A332s that was on the route...after this they had big fanfare about using the 787-9 on the route, which only lasted a few months and now it's stuck on A332...I once transferred from an EY A332 flight to SAA A332 (when they still did AUH) and it was a huge difference!

We have a client that is an Etihad Guest member and travels to India a lot, he used to do JNB-AUH-BOM vv about 3 or 4 times a year with EY...but after once returning with HM via SEZ, he now demands using this both ways as JNB-SEZ-BOM, while still being able to get miles on Etihad Guest.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:24 pm

I think the fact that EY/9W couldn’t make the AUH hub work for Inmdia traffic speaks volumes about what Indian pax want. Connecting in the ME is not the panacea that many on Anet think it is. EY/9W offered a a lot of big and small Indian cities, plus a good product and cheap fares. Yet they still couldn’t make it work. On the flip side, 9W and DL/AF/KL/VS seem to be doing fine.

Btw I don’t view the CEOs comments to mean AUH demand only. I think they will focus on key destinations that the ME region wants plus India/Pak plus LHR & SYD pax. Connecting SGN to GRU is not the plan anymore.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:01 pm

Armodeen wrote:
They can get rid of the A380... and concentrate on (a reduced final amount) of 787s and A320/1.


And where do you suggest they will get the slots from to not cut capacity in more than half, with LHR for instance?
 
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mercure1
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:48 pm

sibibom wrote:
Honestly, the more they cut and shrink the network, the more its likely to fail. They don't have a realistic plan

1) The hub works on connecting passengers from various parts of the world. I get it some of the destinations may not be working for them, but if they are cutting places like Dhaka, which ironically has enough O&D to support one flight daily if not more, something is seriously wrong.


Maybe you missed the point they are purposely moving away from 6th freedom traffic, so hub connectivity takes less importance.

Over time suspect much of the network timings will be rescheduled as well to adjust into smaller connection banks and make schedules more appealing for local demand.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:14 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
So, the second shoe has fallen WRT closing airspace around Qatar.... but it didn't save EY or its "equity alliance."
What a stroke of luck for DWC. The shrunken networks of QR and EY will have a primary beneficiary... EK and Dubai's airports. Without the new IST operational, TK will be late to the party.

TK is late, but bringing the good stuff (O&D).
They are established and will start new routes enabled by connections that will compete with the ME3. It will be slow erosion.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
sibibom
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:14 am

mercure1 wrote:
sibibom wrote:
Honestly, the more they cut and shrink the network, the more its likely to fail. They don't have a realistic plan

1) The hub works on connecting passengers from various parts of the world. I get it some of the destinations may not be working for them, but if they are cutting places like Dhaka, which ironically has enough O&D to support one flight daily if not more, something is seriously wrong.


Maybe you missed the point they are purposely moving away from 6th freedom traffic, so hub connectivity takes less importance.

Over time suspect much of the network timings will be rescheduled as well to adjust into smaller connection banks and make schedules more appealing for local demand.


If they move away from 6th Freedom, then the only traffic they will have is Indian Subcontinent, Asean and middle east. Except LHR and maybe CDG I don't think there is any O&D for any European market to fill an A321 let alone a widebody. And their product is too fancy for some of these routes. They basically have to change everything about them!

Isn't is just easier to get a few billions from the ruler and weather this storm while slowly contracting (not taking any new planes and retiring the oldest ones) and perhaps not investing in a new product and save cost.
 
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neomax
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:29 am

sibibom wrote:
Honestly, the more they cut and shrink the network, the more its likely to fail. They don't have a realistic plan

1) The hub works on connecting passengers from various parts of the world. I get it some of the destinations may not be working for them, but if they are cutting places like Dhaka, which ironically has enough O&D to support one flight daily if not more, something is seriously wrong.
2) They are downgrading at an insane pace, EY204 which was a A380 between AUH and BOM is now an A321 on few days, A332-33 on others. AUH is one of few places which has plenty of bilaterals left to expand in India. Thats an advantage no ME3 or many Asian airlines have with respect to India.
3) Why is 9W doing the heavy lifting to and fro India? EY has grounded fleet, 9W has a shortage and ignoring domestic network to funnel thru AUH. It is insane.
4) Whats the point of dumping A330s, B777 and A380s with decent products for shiny new planes? Keep them longer, and try and delay the new planes! A320neos will get other takers and so will B787-9s, or sell it to lessors. They to cancel A350 and B777X or indefinitely delay them.
5) If they want to become a regional player whats the point of the Residents and Apartments and over the top premium products? whats the point of spending so much to make, install and market these products?
6) They have spent billions on a new Mid-Field terminal, with no planes or destinations what will happen to this investment.

Easiest solution....? The ruler needs to throw a few billions (Oil is finally up) and save and salvage the situation or just complete shut shop and sell to EK


The best post I have seen on this topic so far.
 
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sq421
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:11 am

IndianicWorld wrote:
O&D focus on AUH? All well and good, but they won’t need many aircraft to handle that demand.

There really aren’t many routes that make sense for them without a decent connector network. They will be squeezed by many competitors to a point of irrelevance really, unless AUH can suddenly find significant demand increases to fill seats.

That new midfield terminal will be a monument to former dreams :)


More like a memorial!
 
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sq421
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:56 am

As someone mentioned, crude oil is on an upward movement again. It won't be long before the Abu Dhabi government coffers and egos start bloating up again. While the rising oil prices may impact the operating costs, it'll leave cash on the table for the government to splurge rather than accept defeat to their neighbours in Dubai.

From my experience of working 5 years in Dubai (non-aviation), I know that the Sheikhs put their pride above all else.
 
Armodeen
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:12 am

[twoid][/twoid]
Jayafe wrote:
Armodeen wrote:
They can get rid of the A380... and concentrate on (a reduced final amount) of 787s and A320/1.


And where do you suggest they will get the slots from to not cut capacity in more than half, with LHR for instance?


They aren’t suggesting keeping capacity, they are suggesting slashing it and becoming more of a regional player.

They don’t need to replace the fleet one to one if 20 787s will do it.
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:17 pm

This is a terrible plan. Given the massive investment in the midfield terminal, the low amount of O&D traffic to Abu Dhabi , and the huge fleet they already operate with more on order, they really should focus on expanding their current hub operation not downsizing.

Oh well, at least EK is benefiting from EY's demise. Less competition and EK is also taking their pilots. QR is also benefiting much to the annoyance of the UAE and KSA leaders...
 
Swadian
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:48 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
BestWestern wrote:
I’ve heard that many of the 330’s are heading to Eurowings Swiss and SN. Some of the the 777 may be heading to Swiss and Austrian.

The 320, 787 and 350 will form the backbone of the new fleet.

I’ve also heard that ADAC are in total panic mode over the midfield terminal. Their debt covenants are based on a totally different scenario and could be heading to junk status.



if they're going to be a more regional airline, why keep the 350s in favor of the 78s?

At least some will be needed to serve Australia, Hong Kong, London, and New York. But no more than 15-20. Dreamliners could cover everything else that survives.


No need to use A350 to serve Australia or JFK. 789 and 78X can cover it all. Plus tons of A321LR.
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:19 pm

Swadian wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:


if they're going to be a more regional airline, why keep the 350s in favor of the 78s?

At least some will be needed to serve Australia, Hong Kong, London, and New York. But no more than 15-20. Dreamliners could cover everything else that survives.


No need to use A350 to serve Australia or JFK. 789 and 78X can cover it all. Plus tons of A321LR.


JFK would be at the edge of the B78J range (AUH to JFK is about 6000 nmi), considering that the filed alternate would likely be IAD). It would probably be doable in a 3-class configuration in the summer, but to be competitive against EK, the seat pitch would need to be at least 32"-33" (which is what it is at minimum on EK planes) in Y. In the winter, there is no way that JFK could be done on the B78J on a full load with a suitable alternate (likely planning with IAD as the alternate). The B78J would not have the range to do Australia with a suitable diversion and a full payload (likely planning with RUH or MCT as an alternate), and SYD is a premium destination.

Now, as for a B789, that could be possibly if JFK remained double daily, and the frequency got adjusted to 1 daily B77W and 1 daily B789).
 
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spinotter
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:57 pm

Pe@rson wrote:
Funny that plane spotters admonish a global airline CEO as being ineffective and unsuccessful. ;-)


But what about the CEO's of the original Braniff, PanAm, TWA, AirBerlin, etc., etc. We armchair CEO's have the benefit of hindsight, and there is much to be learned from these vsrious failures. Why shouldn't we discuss these business failures and their causes?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:42 pm

PerfectGriffin wrote:
This is a terrible plan. Given the massive investment in the midfield terminal, the low amount of O&D traffic to Abu Dhabi , and the huge fleet they already operate with more on order, they really should focus on expanding their current hub operation not downsizing.

Oh well, at least EK is benefiting from EY's demise. Less competition and EK is also taking their pilots. QR is also benefiting much to the annoyance of the UAE and KSA leaders...

You advocate Abu Dhabi going bankrupt?

Abu Dhabi has forfeited too much of their authority due to the billions lost under the prior strategy.

The ME3 are being bypassed and suffering due to effective competition with Ethiopian and Turkish airways.

That huge fleet on order must be delt with. As per prior discussion in this thread, the midfield terminal isn't required.

Abu Dhabi must get spending down to survive at oil under $80/bbl. This isn't by choice, government spending went into a lala land of oil will always be over $100/bbl. Oil might spike higher, but is too late for EY this investment cycle. A national airline needing subsidy from a government that used up too much of the sovereign wealth fund right before the new IST? Errr... Strategic rethink required.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
Lufthansa
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:28 pm

EY is at the cross roads. Its now a time for Go HARD or GO home. They really should have pinched a long time airline person here. The easiest solution would be sell to EK and keep itself as a regional player and overflow hub. But the consistently profitable and popular EK doesn't really have a good reason to buy. But this is the Arab world. There's more than just profits to be considered here and things may be done for strategic reasons.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:09 pm

directorguy wrote:
I think they should leverage their investment in Air Serbia [and] start a scissor hub in BEG.


Scissor hubs need 6th Freedom rights, which are in the relevant bilateral ASAs. What's the status of Serbia's 6th Freedom rights?
 
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PerfectGriffin
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PerfectGriffin wrote:
This is a terrible plan. Given the massive investment in the midfield terminal, the low amount of O&D traffic to Abu Dhabi , and the huge fleet they already operate with more on order, they really should focus on expanding their current hub operation not downsizing.

Oh well, at least EK is benefiting from EY's demise. Less competition and EK is also taking their pilots. QR is also benefiting much to the annoyance of the UAE and KSA leaders...

You advocate Abu Dhabi going bankrupt?

Abu Dhabi has forfeited too much of their authority due to the billions lost under the prior strategy.

The ME3 are being bypassed and suffering due to effective competition with Ethiopian and Turkish airways.

That huge fleet on order must be delt with. As per prior discussion in this thread, the midfield terminal isn't required.

Abu Dhabi must get spending down to survive at oil under $80/bbl. This isn't by choice, government spending went into a lala land of oil will always be over $100/bbl. Oil might spike higher, but is too late for EY this investment cycle. A national airline needing subsidy from a government that used up too much of the sovereign wealth fund right before the new IST? Errr... Strategic rethink required.

Lightsaber


No, AD will not go bankrupt any time soon - they have the richest sovereign wealth fund in the world (although many of their investments have lost money).

The thing with AD that differs from Dubai is the mentalities of the leaders. AD rulers are very conservative with their vision and have two policies: keep local Emiratis happy, and a foreign policy which involves removing the influence of religious backed political organsations from the region, especially from Iran.

In 2015 - 16 overnment spending had grown too much, and that coupled with the war launched in Yemen, and slowing local economy caused the government to aggressively cut spending. EY was one of the victims of this cost cutting. But I will commend them on being more wise than their regional counterparts: they cut subsidies for fuel, electricity etc., Introduced VAT, and are more ready for changes in the oil price than ever before.

As I mentioned before, if the local Emiratis are being employed and benefiting from something, the government doesn't mind losing money. And to put things into perspective, the locals are paid 3-4 times the pay as a non-local doing the same work. For this reason, EY will always exist just as long as its employing Emiratis even if it's losing money and shrinking.
 
3AWM
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:20 pm

Airlines are run for reasons other than making money, often to provide connectivity for the populace and business or for prestige.
The sheiks who own Etihad are definitely in it for the prestige but even if you are seriously rich when are losing $3.5 billion a year you aren’t going to stay rich for long.

AUH is 85 miles from DXB, and 60 miles from DWC, which is on the border between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, where Emirates plan to move, there are also plans for a rail link.

In terms of global one-stop connectivity Dubai and Abu Dhabi already are seriously well connected to the world through the Emirates network. There is absolutely no need for someone to be running another Emirates model 60 miles up the road.

The Emiratis in Abu Dhabi most likely still want their own airline and if that’s the case they need to differentiate from Emirates.

Where Emirates is short is in terms of connections, as they aren’t in an alliances and have a limited number of codeshares in most cases the place you get off an Emirates plane is the end of the line.

If Etihad join A* they can link to A* hubs around the world and link to a lot of secondary destinations that aren’t available at all in the Emirates network, so they can offer connectivity to different locations. The can also provide inbound regional connections for all of their A* partners.
It still probably won’t make a commercially successful airline but that is maybe not vital for it to continue.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:33 pm

sibibom wrote:

Isn't is just easier to get a few billions from the ruler and weather this storm while slowly contracting (not taking any new planes and retiring the oldest ones) and perhaps not investing in a new product and save cost.


And that's it in a nutshell. EY has always been an ego project for the rulers of Abu Dhabi. It is the capital of the UAE, and suffers a huge inferiority complex from the hoopla over Dubai, which is seen as a new money, loud, brash upstart...which it basically is, though personally, I've always preferred Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi has the oil and Dubai doesn't so it went with real estate, self promotion, trade and an airline.

EK was a brilliant concept, not only feeding people into the city but perfectly positioned as an international hub. AUH, while having one of the most beautiful terminals in the world, didn't have anywhere near the traffic to DXB, and the expansion of AUH with the advent of EY, didn't change things for the better.

By the time Abu Dhabi caught on to the potential of EK, it was already too late...(not just because of EK but also QR at this point), but they dumped their partnership in Gulf and created EY anyway.

This announcement shows that the rulers are concerned about the profitability of EY. Abu Dhabi is not going to to broke any time soon, but they don't have an endless supply of cash. Oil revenues are down, EY is burning through cash, the UAE is spending billions on defense and they are currently fighting a very expensive war in Yemen.

It's time to save face, cut their losses and make a deal with EK, (they can pass it off as a grand national unity campaign or some such thing), and just forget EY ever existed. It won't be missed and the UAE will be better off for it.
What the...?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
PerfectGriffin wrote:
This is a terrible plan. Given the massive investment in the midfield terminal, the low amount of O&D traffic to Abu Dhabi , and the huge fleet they already operate with more on order, they really should focus on expanding their current hub operation not downsizing.

Oh well, at least EK is benefiting from EY's demise. Less competition and EK is also taking their pilots. QR is also benefiting much to the annoyance of the UAE and KSA leaders...

You advocate Abu Dhabi going bankrupt?

Abu Dhabi has forfeited too much of their authority due to the billions lost under the prior strategy.

The ME3 are being bypassed and suffering due to effective competition with Ethiopian and Turkish airways.

That huge fleet on order must be delt with. As per prior discussion in this thread, the midfield terminal isn't required.

Abu Dhabi must get spending down to survive at oil under $80/bbl. This isn't by choice, government spending went into a lala land of oil will always be over $100/bbl. Oil might spike higher, but is too late for EY this investment cycle. A national airline needing subsidy from a government that used up too much of the sovereign wealth fund right before the new IST? Errr... Strategic rethink required.

Lightsaber


I get Turkish Airlines as competition, but while Ethiopian has grown by leaps and bounds and is one of Africa's few profitable airlines, I didn't think they were yet a threat to Emirates especially, given that ET doesn't serve Australia (although when it receives its 278t A359s, it would have the range to reach Australia's east coast, taking advantage of ETOPS 370). Down the line, Ethiopian could be that threat though, although right now the issue is the capability of ADD.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:58 am

I think EY's joining a Big3 alliance is crucial to prevent further atrophy of EY and AUH. The alliance will differentiate EY from EK, and most FFs are loyal to "their" alliance(s).
 
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SQ789
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:11 am

PerfectGriffin wrote:
Premium economy is a good idea but the question is, which of the ME3 will be first to enter this growing yet potentially profitable market?

Probably Qatar or Emirates?
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SQ789
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:21 am

There is some word I've heard over the last few months until today about this airline ongoing program. There is a word saying "Etihad has scrapped some marginal routes including San Francisco and Edinburgh and further destinations are also likely to be abandoned". So to me, the next route that are likely to be abandoned are ORD, MSQ, BNE and also NGO or KTM?. The next thing is I have some rumoured that they may cancel some orders including entire narrow body aircraft order and could also terminate their active narrow-body A320/A321 planes from fleet means that the airline will no longer fly narrow body planes anymore like TG, SQ, EK etc and also have heard about the 25 777X which maybe have to be cancelled as well. The third thing is in various articles they are cutting off their premium cabins service including "stop serving free chauffeur" and some other major cost cuttings as well. The last one is they need to cut some number of employees to continue it's cost cutting. My conclusion: I've never flown Etihad already for nearly 2 years, the last time I took Etihad was on AUH-CGK on 08/2016. But this ongoing cost cutting was making sure that the airline will lose it's "5 Star" ratings from Skytrax and more should be review soon. I think everything about this is correct right?
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vadodara
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:58 pm

PanHAM wrote:
Mr Hogan did what the owners wanted him to do and he did a good Job on that.. I am sure that he has a letter of exonneration from the owners of EY and a clean discharge with enough pay to live a good life.


Air Berlin and AlItalia was 1-2 punch EY could not handle.

Hogan should take credit for this. Rest of his moves made some sense even if the execution was poor.
 
vadodara
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:03 pm

The rulers of Abu Dhabi had the right ideas. It was poor execution that killed this.

They will probably be wiser. The midterm terminal at Abu Dhabi is surely going to attract traffic and wil ultimately serve it’s purpose of attracting more visitors to the Emirate.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:32 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
PerfectGriffin wrote:
This is a terrible plan. Given the massive investment in the midfield terminal, the low amount of O&D traffic to Abu Dhabi , and the huge fleet they already operate with more on order, they really should focus on expanding their current hub operation not downsizing.

Oh well, at least EK is benefiting from EY's demise. Less competition and EK is also taking their pilots. QR is also benefiting much to the annoyance of the UAE and KSA leaders...

You advocate Abu Dhabi going bankrupt?

Abu Dhabi has forfeited too much of their authority due to the billions lost under the prior strategy.

The ME3 are being bypassed and suffering due to effective competition with Ethiopian and Turkish airways.

That huge fleet on order must be delt with. As per prior discussion in this thread, the midfield terminal isn't required.

Abu Dhabi must get spending down to survive at oil under $80/bbl. This isn't by choice, government spending went into a lala land of oil will always be over $100/bbl. Oil might spike higher, but is too late for EY this investment cycle. A national airline needing subsidy from a government that used up too much of the sovereign wealth fund right before the new IST? Errr... Strategic rethink required.

Lightsaber


I get Turkish Airlines as competition, but while Ethiopian has grown by leaps and bounds and is one of Africa's few profitable airlines, I didn't think they were yet a threat to Emirates especially, given that ET doesn't serve Australia (although when it receives its 278t A359s, it would have the range to reach Australia's east coast, taking advantage of ETOPS 370). Down the line, Ethiopian could be that threat though, although right now the issue is the capability of ADD.

Ethiopian competes for transfer traffic to Africa. So while not a threat alone to EK, it reduces transfer traffic for the ME3. Same with IST. e.f., China to Africa or EU to Africa.

Australia is safe from ET, we can agree to that. It is the overall connecting traffic. ADD is a constraint, but Ethiopian is growing. I think it will have a significant impact.

Lightsaber
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JoeCanuck
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:33 pm

vadodara wrote:
The rulers of Abu Dhabi had the right ideas. It was poor execution that killed this.

They will probably be wiser. The midterm terminal at Abu Dhabi is surely going to attract traffic and wil ultimately serve it’s purpose of attracting more visitors to the Emirate.


I wouldn't be surprised if more visitors who visit Abu Dhabi, land at DXB than AUH. If you're going to visit the UAE, you are definitely going to visit Dubai, so why not land in Dubai? Abu Dhabi has always been much more of a business than tourist destination. DXB is orders of magnitude more developed as a hub as well.

Etihad was just getting started when I was over there. It didn't make sense to me then, and still doesn't now, and the people running the airline are obviously having trouble with the business case as well.
What the...?
 
intothinair
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:01 pm

Now that Etihad will be dumping all the A380s, 77Ws, A330s, and resort to only the 787s and A321LRs as many posters in this thread have mentioned, who will pick up all the drop in capacity?
Eg. Etihad fly 4 X daily to Bangkok. Surely with the reduced fleet as indicated on this thread, capacity would drop to one flight a day. Will EK and QR pick up the slack?

Of course tourism demand will only continue to grow, so a reduction in total seat capacity between markets seems unrealistic.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:05 pm

intothinair wrote:
Now that Etihad will be dumping all the A380s, 77Ws, A330s, and resort to only the 787s and A321LRs as many posters in this thread have mentioned...


When you say “many posters”, you mean you, right?
 
KingOrGod
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:26 pm

Pe@rson wrote:
Funny that plane spotters admonish a global airline CEO as being ineffective and unsuccessful. ;-)


Your assumption of everybody on here being a plane spotter is inaccurate.

The assumption that Hogan ruined EY is not so inaccurate, because if that was the case we wouldn't be even having this thread. Did this person not have a hand in other airline's "success" stories??
 
intothinair
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:44 pm

Jayafe wrote:
intothinair wrote:
Now that Etihad will be dumping all the A380s, 77Ws, A330s, and resort to only the 787s and A321LRs as many posters in this thread have mentioned...


When you say “many posters”, you mean you, right?


Nope. I assumed only A321LRs, ATR72 and ATR42. But i am only an armchair CEO. My fellow anet friends are far more realistic in their analysis of the EY financial performance, and future fleet planning. As such, my question above doesnt mention the ATRs anymore, and include the 787s, as many posters here have said :)
 
vadodara
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:40 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
vadodara wrote:
The rulers of Abu Dhabi had the right ideas. It was poor execution that killed this.

They will probably be wiser. The midterm terminal at Abu Dhabi is surely going to attract traffic and wil ultimately serve it’s purpose of attracting more visitors to the Emirate.


I wouldn't be surprised if more visitors who visit Abu Dhabi, land at DXB than AUH. If you're going to visit the UAE, you are definitely going to visit Dubai, so why not land in Dubai? Abu Dhabi has always been much more of a business than tourist destination. DXB is orders of magnitude more developed as a hub as well.

Etihad was just getting started when I was over there. It didn't make sense to me then, and still doesn't now, and the people running the airline are obviously having trouble with the business case as well.


Agreed, Abu Dhabi is definitely business. And that was precisely my point. It has enough of that to support expanded service. With a decent terminal, one could convert that into a hub. Hogan jumped the gun; he over expanded before the airport infra was in place. Air Berlin/AlItalia is another story.

Etihad needs to take a look at Swiss Air (or now Swiss) and Zurich. Abu Dhabi can have an expanded version of the same with its proximity to India and its oil riches supporting flights to likes on NY/LA and add cities like Houston in the mix.
 
9252fly
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:56 am

Could EY potentially offload a significant amount of aircraft to it's partner 9W. Long haul traffic from India still has a lot of potential and 9W doesn't seem to have to the aircraft to do a major international network expansion.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:26 am

EY didn't have the traffic for even 1 of those A380's as they thought they'd take the traffic and passengers from other carriers. Had they come into the market without being arrogant and Stupid? then they would surely have found success within an alliance. Why do you thing the Alliances formed in the First Place?? It sure as Hell wasn't because they enjoyed each other's company. Even Today UA and SQ don't interline to any great extent and they're both founding members of the *alliance. Now they come "Hat in Hand" after they already "pissed" everybody off? YGBSM!!
 
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neomax
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:19 am

Has EY actually said they plan to get rid of any of the existing fleet? The way people are talking about it on this thread, you would think they said it, but I can't find anything about plans to get rid of existing aircraft. I know they will very likely cancel orders but unless I'm mistaken, I haven't read anything about getting rid of existing aircraft at least for some time. Getting rid of 77W's and A380's would be extremely reckless in my opinion. I don't know why people have this perception that EY can't make them work; aircraft are extremely versatile and can basically be switched to any route that has demand for it, and there most definitely are routes that could easily support both, it's just a matter of finding the right balance. To be honest, I would be shocked if they got rid of any existing aircraft; cancelling orders is much more likely in my opinion. In the long-term, getting rid of any aircraft would be a step backwards and would do a lot more damage than trying to weather the storm with what they have now.
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:41 am

vadodara wrote:

Agreed, Abu Dhabi is definitely business. And that was precisely my point. It has enough of that to support expanded service. With a decent terminal, one could convert that into a hub. Hogan jumped the gun; he over expanded before the airport infra was in place. Air Berlin/AlItalia is another story.

Etihad needs to take a look at Swiss Air (or now Swiss) and Zurich. Abu Dhabi can have an expanded version of the same with its proximity to India and its oil riches supporting flights to likes on NY/LA and add cities like Houston in the mix.


I doubt that there is enough international business traffic to support EY, and business is probably supported well enough with the existing terminals.

Even if they do decide to hang on, the most logical thing to me would be some sort of tie up with EK. Sure, they could try to get in with one of the major alliances, but while I can think of reasons why they would, what do they bring to the table? What does EY offer that anybody wants or needs?
What the...?
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:58 am

planemanofnz wrote:
yowza wrote:
1) I'm not confident that somebody who has never run an airline can do what needs to be done at EY.

He can't be any worse than Hogan!

Two points:

1. Several airlines have had CEO's with non-airline backgrounds come in and successfully manage them, like Christopher Luxon at NZ
2. This new EY CEO seems to have had a role previously at AUH, which means he should understand EY's current state of affairs well

Cheers,

C.


I think the lack of any b2c experience is a concern, but he does know a bit about civil aviation.
 
vadodara
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:59 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
vadodara wrote:

Agreed, Abu Dhabi is definitely business. And that was precisely my point. It has enough of that to support expanded service. With a decent terminal, one could convert that into a hub. Hogan jumped the gun; he over expanded before the airport infra was in place. Air Berlin/AlItalia is another story.

Etihad needs to take a look at Swiss Air (or now Swiss) and Zurich. Abu Dhabi can have an expanded version of the same with its proximity to India and its oil riches supporting flights to likes on NY/LA and add cities like Houston in the mix.


I doubt that there is enough international business traffic to support EY, and business is probably supported well enough with the existing terminals.

Even if they do decide to hang on, the most logical thing to me would be some sort of tie up with EK. Sure, they could try to get in with one of the major alliances, but while I can think of reasons why they would, what do they bring to the table? What does EY offer that anybody wants or needs?


Again, Abu Dhabi is not Dubai. It does not need the tourist $'s to survive. On the other hand, it can use its investments/geography to bring in incidental revenue. DBX is already crowded. No one is willing to move to Dubai World. No room for 3rd runway. Where do you grow Dubai?

What Abu Dhabi brings to table is load of cash. If you recall, in not to distant past, Abu Dhabi bailed out Dubai with the purchase of some landmarks's.

This will be decided by politics; so cant hazard a guess. However with a sensible CEO, EY can grow incrementally like Swiss or the 2 Iceland airlines.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:20 pm

vadodara wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
vadodara wrote:

Agreed, Abu Dhabi is definitely business. And that was precisely my point. It has enough of that to support expanded service. With a decent terminal, one could convert that into a hub. Hogan jumped the gun; he over expanded before the airport infra was in place. Air Berlin/AlItalia is another story.

Etihad needs to take a look at Swiss Air (or now Swiss) and Zurich. Abu Dhabi can have an expanded version of the same with its proximity to India and its oil riches supporting flights to likes on NY/LA and add cities like Houston in the mix.


I doubt that there is enough international business traffic to support EY, and business is probably supported well enough with the existing terminals.

Even if they do decide to hang on, the most logical thing to me would be some sort of tie up with EK. Sure, they could try to get in with one of the major alliances, but while I can think of reasons why they would, what do they bring to the table? What does EY offer that anybody wants or needs?


Again, Abu Dhabi is not Dubai. It does not need the tourist $'s to survive. On the other hand, it can use its investments/geography to bring in incidental revenue. DBX is already crowded. No one is willing to move to Dubai World. No room for 3rd runway. Where do you grow Dubai?

What Abu Dhabi brings to table is load of cash. If you recall, in not to distant past, Abu Dhabi bailed out Dubai with the purchase of some landmarks's.

This will be decided by politics; so cant hazard a guess. However with a sensible CEO, EY can grow incrementally like Swiss or the 2 Iceland airlines.

Abu Dhabi doesn't have enough O&D to be a competitive hub versus DXB or IST. Tourism would help. EK and TK win this round.

Abu Dhabi wasted too much money. They are living as if oil is pricier than it is. They we're once cash flush. Hogan and moderate priced oil ended that.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:42 pm

EY and AUH have yet to face the pressure from TK hubbed at the new IST.

When, not if, Turkey joins the Shengen Area, TK at IST will eventually marginalize EK at DBX for scissor hub traffic, and the impact on QR/DOH and EY/AUH would be a plunge into an ocean of deep red ink with their current business models.
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/turkey ... travel-eu/
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Abu Dhabi doesn't have enough O&D to be a competitive hub versus DXB or IST. Tourism would help. EK and TK win this round.

Abu Dhabi wasted too much money. They are living as if oil is pricier than it is. They we're once cash flush. Hogan and moderate priced oil ended that.

Lightsaber


When I spent time there, (about a decade ago), EY was just starting but almost nobody else was flying into AUH. Almost all of the international airlines were flying into Dubai and if they did land in Abu Dhabi, it was connecting from Dubai. I doubt much has changed since.

This just isn't a, "Build it and they will come", situation.

I remember flying from FRA to AUH on a Lufthansa 744. The plane was packed to Dubai, but there was maybe a handful of passengers connecting on to Abu Dhabi, as we seemingly flew treetop level, just over the highway. That was a pretty neat flight. I'm not even sure they had time, (or the altitude), to pull the gear up.

The simple fact is that if there really was enough traffic in and out of AUH to support Etihad, it would actually BE supporting Etihad right now. I still have doubts that the UAE will have enough traffic to support one huge airline, much less two, but if one of them IS going to survive long term...it won't be Etihad.
What the...?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Etihad CEO lays out restructuring plans

Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:55 am

WPvsMW wrote:
EY and AUH have yet to face the pressure from TK hubbed at the new IST.

When, not if, Turkey joins the Shengen Area, TK at IST will eventually marginalize EK at DBX for scissor hub traffic, and the impact on QR/DOH and EY/AUH would be a plunge into an ocean of deep red ink with their current business models.
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/turkey ... travel-eu/

I've been alluding to how the new IST will impact the ME3 to... not to much agreement. A nearby high O&D hub has an advantage with attracting connecting traffic. The only disadvantages might be cost and of course premium traffic to any destination prefers a non-stop. It is ensuring there is enough of that premium traffic that ensures a hubs success.

Lightsaber
You only have the first amendment with the 2nd. If you're not going to offend someone with what you say, you don't have the 1st.

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