redroo
Posts: 417
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:44 am

With regards to Perth...

The Perth aviation market is resetting after a period of ludicrous capacity growth. From a sleepy city all of a sudden we had flights leaving every 90s to go to the Pilbara, EK flying in three planes at day and an almost hourly service to Bali.

The money and the people that drove all of that activity have gone and the market is settling back to normal. It’s probablg softer than what it was before because people have tightened their belts. I know lots of people who have been out of work for a long time (some because they’re still chasing those 250k a year once in a lifetime roles).

Now I’m not surprised that Etihad has given up as there is no way that a city of 2m people can support 4 flights to the Middle East, two ish to Hong Kong and 5 plus flights to Singapore. Something had to give and Etihad blinked first.

Qatar and Cathay have been driving down prices to the point where I now see flights to Europe that are under $1000. That is crazy money. I am surprised that Qatar are flying the A380 here but only they know if it makes any money for them.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3374
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:10 am

redroo wrote:
I am surprised that Qatar are flying the A380 here ...

Me too - for 1x A380, they could've done 2x 788's or 2 332's instead, and offered a superior schedule. PER doesn't strike me as having sufficient i) premium demand (like SYD) or ii) bulk masses demand (like BKK) to warrant the 388 from QR. Perhaps it's the cargo demand (like CAN), but then again, all of those WA resource exports likely go by sea, and not through PER? AAB previously said re PER that “We have seen continued demand and increased appetite for travel among the Western Australian market since we started flying this route from July 2012." Does anyone have more information on QR's reasoning for giving PER a 388? Is it the bloc time (i.e. DOH - PER - DOH only needing 1 frame per day)?

Cheers,

C.
 
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eta unknown
Posts: 1999
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:12 am

PER has been mentioned frequently on our weekly managerial conference and consensus is for the past year there's simply too much capacity there versus demand.
Last edited by eta unknown on Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
Posts: 204
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:29 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:25 am

planemanofnz wrote:
redroo wrote:
I am surprised that Qatar are flying the A380 here ...

Me too - for 1x A380, they could've done 2x 788's or 2 332's instead, and offered a superior schedule. PER doesn't strike me as having sufficient i) premium demand (like SYD) or ii) bulk masses demand (like BKK) to warrant the 388 from QR. Perhaps it's the cargo demand (like CAN), but then again, all of those WA resource exports likely go by sea, and not through PER? AAB previously said re PER that “We have seen continued demand and increased appetite for travel among the Western Australian market since we started flying this route from July 2012." Does anyone have more information on QR's reasoning for giving PER a 388? Is it the bloc time (i.e. DOH - PER - DOH only needing 1 frame per day)?

Cheers,

C.


Isn't it a question of maxed out bilaterals so no more flights to the big 4 (same reason they don't fly to BNE). So unless they upgauge, they can't do much.
 
flyaustralian12
Posts: 21
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:54 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:39 am

747m8te wrote:
flyaustralian12 wrote:
amazed able to get frequent flyer seats in peak January school holidays period, SYD/LAX January 7 & back January 22.

Nonstop on way over & 1 brief stop on way back, but total points 90,000 each person + about AU$450 in taxes/fuel surcharges.

What's going on ?

Thought this was the busiest time of the year. Are forward bookings that bad ?


Actually that is typical for that time of year, after the 3rd or 4th of January loads always drop off as the peak rush of Aussies leaving Australia for holidays has already gone, with many actually returning in the first week or two into January ahead of the school year starting, so by the 22nd the inbound demand would have tapered off as well. Remember that time of year is a not a long school holiday period for the USA, so you don't get the same volume of pax flying in the reverse direction.

I have often looked at fares in early January, and up until the 3rd or 4th of January they can be thousands of dollars more then just a couple of days later.
there seem to be far more than usual. Look very often for peak season ff seats.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3374
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:17 am

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
redroo wrote:
I am surprised that Qatar are flying the A380 here ...

Me too - for 1x A380, they could've done 2x 788's or 2 332's instead, and offered a superior schedule. PER doesn't strike me as having sufficient i) premium demand (like SYD) or ii) bulk masses demand (like BKK) to warrant the 388 from QR. Perhaps it's the cargo demand (like CAN), but then again, all of those WA resource exports likely go by sea, and not through PER? AAB previously said re PER that “We have seen continued demand and increased appetite for travel among the Western Australian market since we started flying this route from July 2012." Does anyone have more information on QR's reasoning for giving PER a 388? Is it the bloc time (i.e. DOH - PER - DOH only needing 1 frame per day)?

Cheers,

C.


Isn't it a question of maxed out bilaterals so no more flights to the big 4 (same reason they don't fly to BNE). So unless they upgauge, they can't do much.

Ah yes, of course. I wonder if/when the Qatar ASA will be re-negotiated.

Cheers,

C.
 
waoz1
Posts: 369
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:31 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:26 am

redroo wrote:
With regards to Perth...

The Perth aviation market is resetting after a period of ludicrous capacity growth. From a sleepy city all of a sudden we had flights leaving every 90s to go to the Pilbara, EK flying in three planes at day and an almost hourly service to Bali.

The money and the people that drove all of that activity have gone and the market is settling back to normal. It’s probablg softer than what it was before because people have tightened their belts. I know lots of people who have been out of work for a long time (some because they’re still chasing those 250k a year once in a lifetime roles).

Now I’m not surprised that Etihad has given up as there is no way that a city of 2m people can support 4 flights to the Middle East, two ish to Hong Kong and 5 plus flights to Singapore. Something had to give and Etihad blinked first.

Qatar and Cathay have been driving down prices to the point where I now see flights to Europe that are under $1000. That is crazy money. I am surprised that Qatar are flying the A380 here but only they know if it makes any money for them.


MH had them for about $900 on the weekend in the paper
 
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qf2220
Posts: 1439
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:15 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
JG had scheduled block times of 1:20 in both directions, but also regularly had flying times of 1:15. Of course, towards the end they only had 2 aircraft in service and so were combining routes very regularly - DBO & WOL was a common combo.


Thanks

Re DBO and WOL being combined does this suggest that loads were not great on the ERJ?
 
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VapourTrails
Posts: 3310
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2001 9:30 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:21 am

Numerous delays or diversions at SYD this afternoon and earlier evening. Among the diversions to CBR was QF28. Didn’t see much after dark, but won’t be seeing these in the sky for much longer.

Image
Source: https://www.flightradar24.com
 
DeltaB717
Posts: 1465
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:22 am

qf2220 wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
JG had scheduled block times of 1:20 in both directions, but also regularly had flying times of 1:15. Of course, towards the end they only had 2 aircraft in service and so were combining routes very regularly - DBO & WOL was a common combo.


Thanks

Re DBO and WOL being combined does this suggest that loads were not great on the ERJ?


I expect it’s a combination of low loads and not having enough aircraft to service all of their routes at anything like the published schedule... when they suspended operations, they only had 2 of their 5/6 aircraft in service (well, to be honest, another 2 has already been repossessed a couple of weeks earlier).
 
ArtV
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:13 am

So, the Vietnam (SGN) to Port Headland charter flights are ready to start later this year (September) to be flown by Vietnam Airlines. There are (I believe) 13 confirmed return flights, and the organisers are trying to make this a permanent arrangement - and are seeking to upguage the aircraft from 321 to 787 to meet belly freight demand. The weird thing is that they are looking at (and close to confirming) SGN-Port Hedland-AKL-Port Headland-SGN routing - which sounds bizarre, but given there are 1,000's of contract workings living in NZ and commuting/working in the Port Headland area, they believe it is a easy win.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3374
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:05 am

Nepal Airlines GM Sugat Ratna Kansakar has said that the airline plans to use 332's to commence operations to Australia in the future - no mention of a city, but I assume it would be to SYD, if slots allow? Nepal expects to sign an ASA with Australia soon. It'll be interesting to see if this comes to fruition.

See: https://blueswandaily.com/nepal-airline ... -aircraft/.

Cheers,

C.
 
747m8te
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:14 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:24 am

Qantas16 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
oskarclare wrote:

According to their booking system, flights been suspended from the 28 OCT 18 - 2 JAN 19. A bit surprising considering their numbers so far haven't been too bad but at least their not cancelling.

Interesting. Some further services are affected too, like PEK - BCN, which is being suspended in November.

If they were making BNE seasonal, wouldn't they make it a NW service (peak Australian season) - not NS?

Cheers,

C.


I don't think its a seasonal thing as that's a strange time to stop a route. Could be related to 787-9 fleet and ongoing engine issues? They have 14 and there are articles stating they have grounded some so could be related to that. They can put the A330-200 that flies to BNE on the 787-9 routes instead?


I have been hearing it is due to the 787 RR engine issues and the A332s being needed elsewhere to cover. I had friends booked on services later in the year and that is what they had been advised by the airline/travel agents was the reason. Looking at the fares they were offering ex BNE (friends had got tickets $400 return BNE-PEK), i'm guessing they need the aircraft on higher yield routes to maintain demand and frequency. Good to hear this is only temporary and they will be recommencing services in January.
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QF744ER
Posts: 340
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:38 am

Regarding the QF B744 flights, it can't be the same aircraft operating back to back as there's times when 2 aircraft are required for PER flights.

There's a really interesting thread on the YSSY forum regarding the upcoming B744 withdrawals too for those that frequent it.

Interesting reading these comments about PER having excess capacity, just hope JQ use some of their A321NEO's to open up some new routes and build an international network up to places like BKK, Vietnam, Malaysia and India.

There was talk a while back about JQ basing one of their (then newish) A321's with the high density configuration here to operate DPS and SIN circulars but don't think this ever materialised, aircraft was planned to be rotated to/from MEL.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:50 am

QF744ER wrote:
There was talk a while back about JQ basing one of their (then newish) A321's with the high density configuration here to operate DPS and SIN circulars but don't think this ever materialised, aircraft was planned to be rotated to/from MEL.


I've seen 321s on PER-MEL and PER-DPS during peak seasons, but don't think it's a regular thing.
 
VHZNE
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:56 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:06 pm

Hi,

Long time reader but first time posting.

RE QF747 retirement,

Didn't they announce a life extension earlier this year at the investor on 4 aircraft until next year iirc?

I do see their point about OEI and OJT, it will be interesting so see what comes of it.

QF744ER wrote:
Regarding the QF B744 flights, it can't be the same aircraft operating back to back as there's times when 2 aircraft are required for PER flights.

There's a really interesting thread on the YSSY forum regarding the upcoming B744 withdrawals too for those that frequent it.

 
eamondzhang
Posts: 637
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:13 pm

oskarclare wrote:
Another note, not sure if mentioned yet but last Saturday QF started 2x daily MEL-BNE runs with the 789. VH-ZNE also operated first commericial flight to BNE on saturday. A past user Eaglefarm 4 took the following photo of -ZNE.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/79487691@ ... ed-public/

Don't think it's mentioned here, thx. I was actually made aware of this two days ago when one of my friends took the ZNE flight and mentioned about this, was a bit surprised to see 789 on MEL-BNE but understandable to be honest.

Now when's next 787 flight due? IIRC it's BNE-LAX-JFK swap right?

Michael
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3374
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:35 pm

ArtV wrote:
So, the Vietnam (SGN) to Port Headland charter flights are ready to start later this year (September) to be flown by Vietnam Airlines. There are (I believe) 13 confirmed return flights, and the organisers are trying to make this a permanent arrangement - and are seeking to upguage the aircraft from 321 to 787 to meet belly freight demand. The weird thing is that they are looking at (and close to confirming) SGN-Port Hedland-AKL-Port Headland-SGN routing - which sounds bizarre, but given there are 1,000's of contract workings living in NZ and commuting/working in the Port Headland area, they believe it is a easy win.

May I ask where you are getting this information from, and when the PHE - AKL flights would be commencing?

I don't know how well the 321CEO's will do on PHE - AKL flights. Their 321NEO deliveries have been delayed.

Further, despite Kiwi workers in PHE, I doubt there's enough O&D demand for regular scheduled AKL services?

Cheers,

C.
 
MarcusG
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:16 pm

ben175 wrote:
QF744ER wrote:
There was talk a while back about JQ basing one of their (then newish) A321's with the high density configuration here to operate DPS and SIN circulars but don't think this ever materialised, aircraft was planned to be rotated to/from MEL.


I've seen 321s on PER-MEL and PER-DPS during peak seasons, but don't think it's a regular thing.


321s have been almost daily on the Melbourne rotation for a little while now (JQ972/977), not aware of them ever running PER-DPS though. Was talk of it happening last year I believe, but nothing came of that.
 
ArtV
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:49 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ArtV wrote:
So, the Vietnam (SGN) to Port Headland charter flights are ready to start later this year (September) to be flown by Vietnam Airlines. There are (I believe) 13 confirmed return flights, and the organisers are trying to make this a permanent arrangement - and are seeking to upguage the aircraft from 321 to 787 to meet belly freight demand. The weird thing is that they are looking at (and close to confirming) SGN-Port Hedland-AKL-Port Headland-SGN routing - which sounds bizarre, but given there are 1,000's of contract workings living in NZ and commuting/working in the Port Headland area, they believe it is a easy win.

May I ask where you are getting this information from, and when the PHE - AKL flights would be commencing?

I don't know how well the 321CEO's will do on PHE - AKL flights. Their 321NEO deliveries have been delayed.

Further, despite Kiwi workers in PHE, I doubt there's enough O&D demand for regular scheduled AKL services?

Cheers,

C.


Coming from the organisers of the charter (PHE based). I also have real doubts about the AKL sector, but they seem confident.
 
smi0006
Posts: 1754
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:05 am

eamondzhang wrote:
oskarclare wrote:
Another note, not sure if mentioned yet but last Saturday QF started 2x daily MEL-BNE runs with the 789. VH-ZNE also operated first commericial flight to BNE on saturday. A past user Eaglefarm 4 took the following photo of -ZNE.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/79487691@ ... ed-public/

Don't think it's mentioned here, thx. I was actually made aware of this two days ago when one of my friends took the ZNE flight and mentioned about this, was a bit surprised to see 789 on MEL-BNE but understandable to be honest.

Now when's next 787 flight due? IIRC it's BNE-LAX-JFK swap right?

Michael


MEL-SFO on the same day as BNE-LAX-JFK, with four additional BNE-LAX frequencies also if I recall correctly.

Doubt we’ll hear more until the AA/QF JV is cleared up. Unless PER-CDG is announced, hopefully PER airport comes to their senses and PER-JNB is given another though for next season.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7256
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:14 am

Surely PER-CDG is off the table until Perth Airport grow up, as the same technicality they used to say that JNB must go out of the International Terminal would apply to CDG as well.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
HM7
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:01 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:51 pm

VHZNE wrote:
Hi,

Long time reader but first time posting.

RE QF747 retirement,

Didn't they announce a life extension earlier this year at the investor on 4 aircraft until next year iirc?

I do see their point about OEI and OJT, it will be interesting so see what comes of it.

QF744ER wrote:
Regarding the QF B744 flights, it can't be the same aircraft operating back to back as there's times when 2 aircraft are required for PER flights.

There's a really interesting thread on the YSSY forum regarding the upcoming B744 withdrawals too for those that frequent it.



Can someone send me a link to the YSSY forum? Also what was said about OEI and OJT?
CRJ200, Q400, E175, E195, MD88, MD90, A320, A332, A380, B717, B734, B738, B739, B752, B762, B763, B744, B744ER
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:27 pm

Just a reminder if you would like to share links to other forums please do it through the pm feature only, please do not attach links to these forums in the open forum

Secondly could all Perth based a.net users please pm me, I have had a request from another user and it is probably better if this is discussed privately, so could you please pm me, thanks
Forum Moderator
 
HM7
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:01 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:59 pm

If anyone would like to discuss “QF 747 Retirement” specifically, I recently opened a new thread of the same name. There is tons of info regarding aircraft, flight schedules, and more. I won’t post the link per qf789’s request, but it should be easy to find.
CRJ200, Q400, E175, E195, MD88, MD90, A320, A332, A380, B717, B734, B738, B739, B752, B762, B763, B744, B744ER
 
MooLor
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:13 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:31 am

I notice MH123 into SYD has been flown by A380 most days since at least the beginning of July, not the usual A333. Cannot find anything on Airline Route re aircraft changes. This is just a temporary swap due to maintenance or World Cup traffic I assume?
 
Qantas16
Posts: 519
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:51 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 am

MooLor wrote:
I notice MH123 into SYD has been flown by A380 most days since at least the beginning of July, not the usual A333. Cannot find anything on Airline Route re aircraft changes. This is just a temporary swap due to maintenance or World Cup traffic I assume?


Not sure about World Cup traffic given MH (nor anyone else) flies KUL-Moscow (that I can find...). Presume its more just school holiday traffic.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7256
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:48 am

It’s basically 100% full every day, with peak school holiday traffic it’s a good use of an A380 for an airline that doesn’t know what to do with them.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
tullamarine
Posts: 1824
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:10 am

Melbourne Airport has released their 2018 Master Plan on their website. Its over 300 pages in total and covers short term >5 years planning as well as concept planning for the next 20 years.

Key changes in next 5 years are
- New Parallel E-W runway and extension/widening of existing E-W runway
- Extensive modifications to T2 enabling more gates as well as new Arrivals Hall
- Realigned pick-up/drop-off outside T1/2/3 enabling expansion of T2
- Creation of int'l swing gates on Pier C (T1) and Pier E (T3)
- Airport Rail

Longer term plans
- New parallel N-S runway and extension of existing N-S runway to 4500m
- New T5 south-east of T4
- New Pier A in T1 (located where Qantas Catering currently is)
- New Midfield parking area near control tower that could eventually become an infield T6
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 789, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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eta unknown
Posts: 1999
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 5:03 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:49 am

Re update to CA PEK-BNE suspension... the suspension period is in fact 2 months longer, from 23AUG to 02JAN.
 
MooLor
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2016 12:13 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2018

Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:00 am

Qantas16 wrote:
Not sure about World Cup traffic given MH (nor anyone else) flies KUL-Moscow (that I can find...). Presume its more just school holiday traffic.


RyanairGuru wrote:
It’s basically 100% full every day, with peak school holiday traffic it’s a good use of an A380 for an airline that doesn’t know what to do with them.


Thanks - makes sense. I'd forgotten it is school holidays - I'm obviously not working in the travel industry!

And yeah, cannot imagine MH anywhere near Russia given their recent history.

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