planemanofnz wrote:

TasFlyer wrote:

VA to commence HBA-PER from September. Details to be announced later today.

https://www.themercury.com.au/business/direct-hobart-to-perth-flights-to-start-in-september-says-premier-will-hodgman/news-story/c91f487a761ef5461ae7c44b09b898cb

Amazing - though quite a surprise that it wasn't QF. Perhaps this will spur QF to re-evaluate HBA - PER soon?

This leaves AKL as the biggest city regionally without a service to HBA, followed by OOL, NTL and CBR, right?

Cheers,

C.

True, JQ used to have OOL but dropped it for BNE.

VA used to have CBR but dropped it.

Weather is currently deteriorating at PER, all ops moved to runway 24, wouldn’t be surprised to start seeing missed approaches and delays starting to increase

PER-HBA will begin on 17 September, 3 weekly (Monday, Wednesday, Friday)

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero

qf789 wrote:

PER-HBA will begin on 17 September, 3 weekly (Monday, Wednesday, Friday)

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero

Finally!!!

redroo wrote:

qf789 wrote:

PER-HBA will begin on 17 September, 3 weekly (Monday, Wednesday, Friday)

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero

Finally!!!

Just hope they stick around, it is virgin could cancel them tomorrow.
But might actually not book a tassie holiday!!!

South Australian charter operator Rossair has entered into volutes administration

https://australianaviation.com.au/2018/ ... istration/

Obzerva wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

TasFlyer wrote:

VA to commence HBA-PER from September. Details to be announced later today.

https://www.themercury.com.au/business/direct-hobart-to-perth-flights-to-start-in-september-says-premier-will-hodgman/news-story/c91f487a761ef5461ae7c44b09b898cb

Amazing - though quite a surprise that it wasn't QF. Perhaps this will spur QF to re-evaluate HBA - PER soon?

This leaves AKL as the biggest city regionally without a service to HBA, followed by OOL, NTL and CBR, right?

Cheers,

C.

True, JQ used to have OOL but dropped it for BNE.

VA used to have CBR but dropped it.

HBA-OOL is seasonal with TT.

waoz1 wrote:

redroo wrote:

qf789 wrote:

PER-HBA will begin on 17 September, 3 weekly (Monday, Wednesday, Friday)

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero

Finally!!!

Just hope they stick around, it is virgin could cancel them tomorrow.
But might actually not book a tassie holiday!!!

Chances are it will be handed to TT within 12 months and eventually dropped, take it while you can.
Sorry I have no faith in Virgin at all

An767

QF744ER wrote:

VH-EBS is back in service following A330-200L reconfiguration currently operating QF61.

The new seat plan has appeared on the QF website too.

Thanks for the info. Looks like qf002 is mostly correct, except they removed the row 6 in C28 config instead of row 1 (and moved it back to after door 2).

And did they add the crew rest in the forward cargo hold?

Michael

An767 wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

redroo wrote:

Finally!!!

Just hope they stick around, it is virgin could cancel them tomorrow.
But might actually not book a tassie holiday!!!

Chances are it will be handed to TT within 12 months and eventually dropped, take it while you can.
Sorry I have no faith in Virgin at all

An767

My initial thought was that this is more of a TT route than VA, but they must have their reasons.

qf789 wrote:

Etihad CEO has told media that they will continue to hold a stake in Virgin

https://twitter.com/Jamie_Freed/status/ ... 2899449856

This is surprising, as VA doesn't seem to be giving them an edge? They aren't doing that well in Australia. Take a look at EY's load factors:

- Apr: 65.8%
- Mar: 62.6%
- Feb: 67.2%

I know this doesn't tell the full story, but their market share is down from 3.2% to 2.8% in a year too, and will reduce further once PER is cut.

See: https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoi ... tions.aspx.

Given the new CEO's comments about prioritizing point-to-point flights over the super-hub model, could EY end up pulling out of Australia?

Cheers,

C.

Some notes from the CAPA summit I

n PER today

VA's PER-HBA service is strategically an important announcement due to importance of Tasmania to the Chinese market,
WA has the opportunity to expand the whole Australian economy through the PER hub

https://twitter.com/BlueSwanDaily/statu ... 4687284225

Qantas is happy with the launch of PER-LHR, It was clear within a year QF would be looking at other services to Europe such as CDG or FRA

https://twitter.com/BlueSwanDaily/statu ... 6575080448

WA is working on developing both PER-CDG and PER-FRA within 2 years

https://twitter.com/BlueSwanDaily/statu ... 0441295872

PER can redevelop Australia into a medium haul destination, adding its India-Australia via PER

https://twitter.com/BlueSwanDaily/statu ... 1199982593

PER Airport CEO says they are talking to International Airlines to discuss their needs and how PER can develop the airport to meet those needs

https://twitter.com/BlueSwanDaily/statu ... 0808577026

Garuda Indonesia WA General Manager talks strategy for challenging PER market



Australia-India market
- AI plans to increase Australian services to 10 weekly
- Jet Airways exploring BOM-SYD
- Indian LCC keen to expand International footprint, could test Australian market with 1 stop services using re-engine narrowbodies
- Both Indigo and SpiceJet planning widebody services from 2019
- Both QF & JQ maintain a watching brief to India
- recent FTA Australia-India

Qantas confirms 15% of passengers on PER-LHR are stopping in PER as part of their journey to the east coast
This includes working with passengers to understand why they should stop in PER and where to visit in WA such as BME and other regional services

PER needs to remain a 24/7 hour operation(i.e. no curfew) , to attract international carriers for late night flights, early morning flights for FIFO and for sustainability of the corporate market. Also needs a 24/7 service to assist cargo operations as opportunities are limitless

Perth International airfares have risen about 5% of the past year

https://blueswandaily.com/blog-live-fro ... el-summit/

planemanofnz wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

qf789 wrote:

Also those interested on how QR is performing at PER with the A380, loads have recently been consistent above 90%, there have been some nights where it has departed without an empty seat

I saw QR have loaded the a388 past the annual trial.
Might be here to stay.

I wouldn't be so sure - loads don't tell the full story. For example, on Expedia, QR is showing as the cheapest option ex-PER to Europe for pretty much every month, so I'd question the yields with those loads. Further, a lot of the high-yielding premium class LHR traffic now probably goes on the QF non-stop flight. Though, I hope it works out for them.

Cheers,

C.

After been given more information today I can tell you that QR is currently doing better out of PER than EK, on an average EK is going out with 60-100 less passengers on their A388 service a night compared to what QR is.

It is also worth noting that 30% of all that are travelling to Europe fly to LHR, prior to QF's PER-LHR starting I worked this out to be around at least 450 passengers a day if not more

qf789 wrote:

[After been given more information today I can tell you that QR is currently doing better out of PER than EK, on an average EK is going out with 60-100 less passengers on their A388 service a night compared to what QR is.

That's interesting - EK must be taking a hit at PER with its prior QF feed now able to use QF's new PER - LHR flight.

Earlier this year, EK said that PER was a "battleground," and therefore performing poorer than even the likes of ADL!

See: https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4yz04.html.

On QR having good load factors, I note that they're significantly cheaper than EK, EY or QF. Yields may not be good?

Cheers,

C.

All those stories about PER becoming some kind of potential super hub for Australia appear quite misguided.

It may well have a role, but at the end of the day the airlines seem to work hard at gaining a slice of the far larger East Coast markets, which makes PER a harder sell in many cases. This is especially apparent when looking at the multitude of options out there available for pax already. Add in QF’s desire for SYD/MEL-LHR, it once again will change the landscape if that occurs.

Not sure I get the references to the importance of PER-HBA for VA in terms of China though. It may well increase the travel options, but given the way that itineraries of Chinese pax usually cover multiple cities, if they really wanted to get over to WA they could already do that quite easily in a fairly pain free way.

I hope that PER-HBA works out though. Tasmania is a great place and opening up such a route is exciting to see play out.

I hope that further WA connections become available in the future too, including the potential of flights from the East Coast to Busselton

qf789 wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

I saw QR have loaded the a388 past the annual trial.
Might be here to stay.

I wouldn't be so sure - loads don't tell the full story. For example, on Expedia, QR is showing as the cheapest option ex-PER to Europe for pretty much every month, so I'd question the yields with those loads. Further, a lot of the high-yielding premium class LHR traffic now probably goes on the QF non-stop flight. Though, I hope it works out for them.

Cheers,

C.

After been given more information today I can tell you that QR is currently doing better out of PER than EK, on an average EK is going out with 60-100 less passengers on their A388 service a night compared to what QR is.

It is also worth noting that 30% of all that are travelling to Europe fly to LHR, prior to QF's PER-LHR starting I worked this out to be around at least 450 passengers a day if not more

The EK and QR info is interesting but it would be interesting to analyse yields also to accurately assess performance overall. With EK at 2 x daily compared to QR at 1 x daily, EK is still likely in the the stronger overall position.

IndianicWorld wrote:

With EK at 2 x daily compared to QR at 1 x daily, EK is still likely in the the stronger overall position.

True. Though, even EK doesn't seem to be too happy at PER - look at how they described it compared to other Australian cities - a "battleground." I note that quite a few carriers seem to be struggling at PER - CZ said PER is "challenging" and "not where we want it," and EY is obviously about to dump PER. Further, QF seems to have dropped PER - AKL, or at least isn't expanding it to year-round like it talked about a few months ago. Similarly, all the talk about new routes to the likes of Japan being "imminent" have turned out to be false, too. I hope that QF's new Europe flights eventuate, and give PER a much-needed boost.

See:
- https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4yz04.html.
- https://www.acbr.com.au/chinese-airline ... g-wings-wa.

Cheers,

C.

IndianicWorld wrote:

Not sure I get the references to the importance of PER-HBA for VA in terms of China though.

I'm glad I'm not the only one!

Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:

IndianicWorld wrote:

With EK at 2 x daily compared to QR at 1 x daily, EK is still likely in the the stronger overall position.

True. Though, even EK doesn't seem to be too happy at PER - look at how they described it compared to other Australian cities - a "battleground." I note that quite a few carriers seem to be struggling at PER - CZ said PER is "challenging" and "not where we want it," and EY is obviously about to dump PER. Further, QF seems to have dropped PER - AKL, or at least isn't expanding it to year-round like it talked about a few months ago. Similarly, all the talk about new routes to the likes of Japan being "imminent" have turned out to be false, too. I hope that QF's new Europe flights eventuate, and give PER a much-needed boost.

See:
- https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4yz04.html.
- https://www.acbr.com.au/chinese-airline ... g-wings-wa.

Cheers,

C.

EY has much bigger problems then PER, lets not forget within a year AUH-MEL has gone from 1 A388 and 1 77W to 2 789's and they are cutting other routes left, right and centre. EK has also had their own problems. Neither of these are PER centric. The core markets from PER being SIN (we have seen SQ add the 787-10 with talks of possibly more flights be upgraded in the future), HKG (CX has added capacity bringing the A359 in), Indonesia ( CGK has been increased and DPS traffic is growing again after many months), BKK has seen growth the past year. The only core market that has fallen is KUL and that is mainly due to D7 dropping to 1 daily flight but again that is not only PER, they also reduced SYD & OOL at the same time. AKL/CHC has remained about the same, along with JNB, MRU has seen growth, now at 3 weekly services year round compared to 2 a year ago with that up to 4 weekly during summer and going off last summer's success a fifth weekly service during the peak period would not be a surprise.

Finally the possibility of Japan flights have never been imminent, talks are ongoing and last reports suggested they would start 2019 or 2020

planemanofnz wrote:

IndianicWorld wrote:

Not sure I get the references to the importance of PER-HBA for VA in terms of China though.

I'm glad I'm not the only one!

Cheers,

C.

Unless they accidentally hinted at something it seems like the most random statement....

Talking about the ME3 in Perth, tbh they aren't really doing that great nationwide really when it comes to load factors, looking at the last two months from Bitre (average of inbound and outbound)
April March
EK 66.4% 70.3%
EY 65.9% 62.6%
QR 69.4% 68.9%

The whole Australia-ME market needs a few years to mature and grow passenger counts without capacity upgrade something which does seem to be starting to happen, no upgrades planned by any of the ME3 atm


In better news SriLankan Airlines is doing very well with its MEL-CMB with 88.7% inbound and 77% outbound loads - demonstrates that demand is there for increased flights to India which is no doubt helping fill this service is there. Hoping SriLankan can look at Sydney next.

qf789 wrote:

EY has much bigger problems then PER, lets not forget within a year AUH-MEL has gone from 1 A388 and 1 77W to 2 789's and they are cutting other routes left, right and centre. EK has also had their own problems. Neither of these are PER centric. The core markets from PER being SIN (we have seen SQ add the 787-10 with talks of possibly more flights be upgraded in the future), HKG (CX has added capacity bringing the A359 in), Indonesia ( CGK has been increased and DPS traffic is growing again after many months), BKK has seen growth the past year. The only core market that has fallen is KUL and that is mainly due to D7 dropping to 1 daily flight but again that is not only PER, they also reduced SYD & OOL at the same time. AKL/CHC has remained about the same, along with JNB, MRU has seen growth, now at 3 weekly services year round compared to 2 a year ago with that up to 4 weekly during summer and going off last summer's success a fifth weekly service during the peak period would not be a surprise.

Finally the possibility of Japan flights have never been imminent, talks are ongoing and last reports suggested they would start 2019 or 2020

I have to disagree - the issue seems to be PER-centric. According to the news item I linked below, while every other state has recorded double-digit growth in visitor numbers over the past three years, WA’s growth has stagnated or gone backwards. Further, overseas tourist data released in March showed PER was the only capital city to record an annual decline in overseas visitors.

See: https://thewest.com.au/news/tourism/wa- ... b88880578z.

On the airlines:

1. I agree that EY has massive issues, but EY could have dropped BNE, or another destination globally - instead, it dropped PER as one of a handful.
2. EK's issues in Australia do seem to be PER-centric, as their description of PER differed significantly from SYD, MEL and even ADL, when asked.
3. CZ's comments that PER is challenging and not where it needs to be aligns with MU's PER flights - supposed to start this year - now going silent?
4. On Japan, it was only rumours, but it was reported that flights were supposed to be announced when Mark McGowan visited Japan, late last year.

... the deal for a daily Boeing 195-seat 787 service with Japan Airlines is very close and will be announced when Premier Mark McGowan visits Japan later next month.

See: https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/china-so ... b88641749z

A flight to Japan has now been pushed back, yet again - this time, to 2019, supposedly due to aircraft availability and PER competing with other cities.

See: https://www.ausbt.com.au/perth-airport- ... -this-year.

It's great to see all the increases though, like, as you say, to HKG and MRU, and of course PER has the new LHR flight. I still think more can be done.

Cheers,

C.

log0008 wrote:

Talking about the ME3 in Perth, tbh they aren't really doing that great nationwide really when it comes to load factors ...

Yes, though I note that EK said a few months ago that SYD was a gold mine, and that MEL was really strong. This seems to be backed up by QR being desperate enough to get a second SYD frequency by flying a near-empty CBR tag. Therefore, even if loads aren't the best, perhaps yields are holding up, at least for EK and QR?

log0008 wrote:

In better news SriLankan Airlines is doing very well with its MEL-CMB with 88.7% inbound and 77% outbound loads - demonstrates that demand is there for increased flights to India which is no doubt helping fill this service is there. Hoping SriLankan can look at Sydney next.

That is wonderful to see. They had said that if MEL did well, that they would consider returning to SYD too. I wonder how much of their traffic is Indian connections through, versus just Sri Lankan traffic? As I understood, connections through CMB weren't timed that well for quite a few Indian destinations, which wouldn't give high yield.

Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:

log0008 wrote:

Talking about the ME3 in Perth, tbh they aren't really doing that great nationwide really when it comes to load factors ...

Yes, though I note that EK said a few months ago that SYD was a gold mine, and that MEL was really strong. This seems to be backed up by QR being desperate enough to get a second SYD frequency by flying a near-empty CBR tag. Therefore, even if loads aren't the best, perhaps yields are holding up, at least for EK and QR?

log0008 wrote:

In better news SriLankan Airlines is doing very well with its MEL-CMB with 88.7% inbound and 77% outbound loads - demonstrates that demand is there for increased flights to India which is no doubt helping fill this service is there. Hoping SriLankan can look at Sydney next.

That is wonderful to see. They had said that if MEL did well, that they would consider returning to SYD too. I wonder how much of their traffic is Indian connections through, versus just Sri Lankan traffic? As I understood, connections through CMB weren't timed that well for quite a few Indian destinations, which wouldn't give high yield.

Cheers,

C.

RE: ME3 yeah thats something we will never know if only yields were published haha. I think part of the load factor issue is that peak season demand has been able to keep up with the capacity, off-peak demand isn't really growing all that much this creating a wider gap.

For about the 7th time in the past 3 weeks, flights across the eastern seaboard are severely delayed today because of fog. There have been fog incidents in our 3 biggest airports, SYD, MEL and BNE. As I understand it, to land in heavy fog, an airport is required to have a Cat 3 ILS system and our airports tend to be Cat 1 or Cat 2. Given each of these delays effectively result in a whole day of delayed flights once the knock-on effect is taken into account, is it time for the airport owners, the airlines and government to look to upgrade the ILS at these major airports?

tullamarine wrote:

For about the 7th time in the past 3 weeks, flights across the eastern seaboard are severely delayed today because of fog. There have been fog incidents in our 3 biggest airports, SYD, MEL and BNE. As I understand it, to land in heavy fog, an airport is required to have a Cat 3 ILS system and our airports tend to be Cat 1 or Cat 2. Given each of these delays effectively result in a whole day of delayed flights once the knock-on effect is taken into account, is it time for the airport owners, the airlines and government to look to upgrade the ILS at these major airports?

Yes I think it is long overdue. The main issue is when these delays happen particularly out of MEL and SYD it essentially the delays that follow knock out the whole country for the rest of the day. Of course that can be problematic later in the day when flying to airports like SYD and ADL which have curfews can result in the possibility of flights being cancelled and incoveniencing a lot of passengers in the process

Melbourne already has a Cat3B ILS, the issue is not the category of ILS in most cases (only the worst fog, where visibility is literally 0 needs cat3), for example aircraft were having no issues getting in on the ILS today at Syndey - any that did would have been REX saab 340s or QLink Dash 8s which have higher minimums which would not benefit from improved ILS. The issue is that when Low Visibility Procedures are in effect spacing between landing aircraft has to be increased and departing aircraft cannot line up and wait, they must wait until the proceeding aircraft is off the runway before entering. This is ICAO standard to reduce the risk of a runway collision and is in effect when ever the tower can not see all areas of the airport visually (and i think some of the final approach path) Both MEL and SYD operate at or above maximum normal hourly though put during the morning rush - this is why you see holding on even clear days. What is needed is new runways, SYD cannot get this but the 3rd runway project at Melbourne is getting going but is being held up by delays in commonwealth approval and land acquisition.

Qatar Airways A388 A7-API departed MEL this morning after going tech a couple days ago

qf789 wrote:

planemanofnz wrote:

IndianicWorld wrote:

With EK at 2 x daily compared to QR at 1 x daily, EK is still likely in the the stronger overall position.

True. Though, even EK doesn't seem to be too happy at PER - look at how they described it compared to other Australian cities - a "battleground." I note that quite a few carriers seem to be struggling at PER - CZ said PER is "challenging" and "not where we want it," and EY is obviously about to dump PER. Further, QF seems to have dropped PER - AKL, or at least isn't expanding it to year-round like it talked about a few months ago. Similarly, all the talk about new routes to the likes of Japan being "imminent" have turned out to be false, too. I hope that QF's new Europe flights eventuate, and give PER a much-needed boost.

See:
- https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4yz04.html.
- https://www.acbr.com.au/chinese-airline ... g-wings-wa.

Cheers,

C.

EY has much bigger problems then PER, lets not forget within a year AUH-MEL has gone from 1 A388 and 1 77W to 2 789's and they are cutting other routes left, right and centre. EK has also had their own problems. Neither of these are PER centric. The core markets from PER being SIN (we have seen SQ add the 787-10 with talks of possibly more flights be upgraded in the future), HKG (CX has added capacity bringing the A359 in), Indonesia ( CGK has been increased and DPS traffic is growing again after many months), BKK has seen growth the past year. The only core market that has fallen is KUL and that is mainly due to D7 dropping to 1 daily flight but again that is not only PER, they also reduced SYD & OOL at the same time. AKL/CHC has remained about the same, along with JNB, MRU has seen growth, now at 3 weekly services year round compared to 2 a year ago with that up to 4 weekly during summer and going off last summer's success a fifth weekly service during the peak period would not be a surprise.

Finally the possibility of Japan flights have never been imminent, talks are ongoing and last reports suggested they would start 2019 or 2020

Love being offline for a few weeks and they are bagging Perth again.
Just dont mention some random employment rate to set them off.

waoz1 wrote:

Love being offline for a few weeks and they are bagging Perth again.

I love PER - it's a beautiful place. But, isn't what I said in my post true? That is:

- While other states recorded double-digit growth in visitor numbers in the past 2 years, WA’s growth stagnated or went backwards.
- Overseas tourist figures released in March showed PER was the only capital city to record an annual decline in overseas visitors.

I took these points from an article only - if they're wrong, please do correct me.

Cheers,

C.

planemanofnz wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

Love being offline for a few weeks and they are bagging Perth again.

I love PER - it's a beautiful place. But, isn't what I said in my post true? That is:

- While other states recorded double-digit growth in visitor numbers in the past 2 years, WA’s growth stagnated or went backwards.
- Overseas tourist figures released in March showed PER was the only capital city to record an annual decline in overseas visitors.

I took these points from an article only - if they're wrong, please do correct me.

Cheers,

C.

One month doesnt make a year any city could go backwards for a month or a few months.
And as pointed out previously numerous airlines have increased or are about to increase services.

Your constant criticism gets a bit boring

Jkraid wrote:

qf789 wrote:

A bit more information of QF's pilot issues


As previously mentioned 747's will be deployed on SYD-PER and A330's replacing some services on PER-SIN. Additionally some SYD-HKG services will see 744's replaced by A388's, SYD-HNL A330's replaced by 744's and MEL-AKL will see A330's replaced by 737's

I give MEL-AKL with A330 and SYD-HNL with 744 a thumbs up. I didn't know QF were using 738s for PER-SIN; years ago 763s were used for that route.

Until recently they had nothing
was a double daily a330s
Then single a330
Then nothing
Then one 738
Then double 738s
Now daily a330s

Talk about make up ur mind lol

planemanofnz wrote:

waoz1 wrote:

One month doesnt make a year any city could go backwards for a month or a few months.

Just for clarity, the figures are annual or over more than one year - not just a month or two. It's a consistent decline.

Cheers,

C.

Well better send an email to
SQ, CX, GA, QF, MK, QR, MH, CZ who have all increased services out of perth in the last year to stop and start sending aircraft elsewhere

waoz1 wrote:

One month doesnt make a year any city could go backwards for a month or a few months.

Just for clarity, the figures are annual or over more than one year - not just a month or two. Well, at least the WA one. It's a consistent decline, no?

Cheers,

C.

qf789 wrote:

A bit more information of QF's pilot issues


As previously mentioned 747's will be deployed on SYD-PER and A330's replacing some services on PER-SIN. Additionally some SYD-HKG services will see 744's replaced by A388's, SYD-HNL A330's replaced by 744's and MEL-AKL will see A330's replaced by 737's

I give MEL-AKL with A330 and SYD-HNL with 744 a thumbs up. I didn't know QF were using 738s for PER-SIN; years ago 763s were used for that route.

The NSW Supreme Court today found in favour of Dubbo Regional Council and ordered that JetGo be sound up. Liquidator has been approved. This among several media reports:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-0 ... fmredir=sm

Sad news for the staff, obviously, and for customers who’ve lost the value of their bookings.

log0008 wrote:

Melbourne already has a Cat3B ILS, the issue is not the category of ILS in most cases (only the worst fog, where visibility is literally 0 needs cat3), for example aircraft were having no issues getting in on the ILS today at Syndey - any that did would have been REX saab 340s or QLink Dash 8s which have higher minimums which would not benefit from improved ILS. The issue is that when Low Visibility Procedures are in effect spacing between landing aircraft has to be increased and departing aircraft cannot line up and wait, they must wait until the proceeding aircraft is off the runway before entering. This is ICAO standard to reduce the risk of a runway collision and is in effect when ever the tower can not see all areas of the airport visually (and i think some of the final approach path) Both MEL and SYD operate at or above maximum normal hourly though put during the morning rush - this is why you see holding on even clear days. What is needed is new runways, SYD cannot get this but the 3rd runway project at Melbourne is getting going but is being held up by delays in commonwealth approval and land acquisition.

Very interesting, thanks for that. I landed on a late night Qantas A330 into Melbourne a couple weeks back with heavy fog at midnight (QF497) and the captain infomred us that we should count ourselves lucky we were on a Cat3 enabled aircraft. None of the 60 or so pax knew what that meant of course. Also, 60 pax on an A330 - we had to move seats just to balance the aircraft out.

I was travelling yesterday and the combination of fog in Sydney and high winds in Melbourne had flights all over the place. I don't know how the airlines manage this - by people moving things around or some algorithm that spits out solutions? It must be incredibly complex combining aircraft capabilities with crew availability, passenger demand, actual aircraft location, expected weather conditions etc.

Another delaying feature I noticed - rear door boarding for a number of Virgin flights, at least, was nixed in Melbourne due to the winds. I've seen this happen before with threat of lightening strikes and rain. It slows down an otherwise speedy boarding process quite considerably, adding, at my estimation, at least 10-15 minutes to a fully laden 737-800's turnaround.

Curious as to peoples' thoughts on the 737-800 replacement cycle that will be coming up for both Virgin and Qantas.

I don't think Qantas has taken delivery of a new 737 since about 2013 but Vrigin has been gradually rotating its fleet with newer types and has the MAX on order. Given the ever-improving domestic load factors and yields (assumed yields, fares are increasing from reports I've seen), could we see the -800 replaced by the MAX9 rather than the MAX8? It gives a nice, manageable bump in capacity and the oft-bemoaned field performance isn't really an issue given the runway lengths of the main airports in Australia. But allows the airlines to up-gauge capacity without adding more frequencies that are sometimes just 15 minutes apart on MEL-SYD for instance.

So could the MAX9 be the -800 replacement of choice over the next 5-10 years, perhaps with the MAX8 becoming a smaller subfleet? Not quite the capacity jump to the A321/MAX10 while maintaining the 737 fleet commonality and likely PIPs to come. Or are there enough runway length issues to put the kibosh on that? And is it just easier to operate the MAX8 and the MAX10?

waoz1 wrote:

Jkraid wrote:

qf789 wrote:

A bit more information of QF's pilot issues


As previously mentioned 747's will be deployed on SYD-PER and A330's replacing some services on PER-SIN. Additionally some SYD-HKG services will see 744's replaced by A388's, SYD-HNL A330's replaced by 744's and MEL-AKL will see A330's replaced by 737's

I give MEL-AKL with A330 and SYD-HNL with 744 a thumbs up. I didn't know QF were using 738s for PER-SIN; years ago 763s were used for that route.

Until recently they had nothing
was a double daily a330s
Then single a330
Then nothing
Then one 738
Then double 738s
Now daily a330s

Talk about make up ur mind lol

Next it could be one of those re-purposed ex-JQ A320s that QFLink now has...

Virgin will probably stick to the 738 maxes, I don't see them getting the larger varients as they are probably aiming for frequency and range in there fleet, rather than capacity.

Qantas are a bit of a mystery as they don't have any more 737s on order. They have the group order of 99 neos which although mainly for Jetstar, it's still very possible for a few could come to qantas.

Unlike Virgin, I see that qantas might want to increase capacity as it already has great frequency. With about half of the neo order as a321, I will predict that some will make their way over to qantas adding to the fleet or replacing some of the older 737s

moa999 wrote:

The 321neo/Max10 with an angled lie-flat J product, but similar 12/162 seatcount would be a good addition.

Could be used on the narrower Asian routes and Perth flights.

The 797/MoM I see as a likely order and will be better suited to shorter domestic flights than the 330 or 787, which Qantas has flagged saying they are unlikely to take all 787 options.

If you get the 797 you probably don't need the larger smaller aircraft, unless substantial cask benefits.

Also of note is the 717s which are older than the oldest 737.

Good point on the 797 - I'd forgotten about that one. Widebody turnaround times on domestic are pretty atrocious so I do wonder about the "benefits" of their use on 1-2 hour segments.

I guess I'm looking at it from both a fleet simplicity and low-risk perspective - how can you maximise revenues and gate/runway capacity without adding a new type and without overdoing the new capacity should there be a new competitor or a downturn in traffic?

In practice 15 minute frequencies aren't actually very practicable and it's fairly common to see cancellations as pax are consolidated onto other flights. And both carriers seem to be getting close to the mid-high 80s load-factors on the trunk routes. So yes, even Virgin must be looking at an upgauge, particularly if they go through with the improved 737 domestic product, which they should.

Pcoder wrote:

Unlike Virgin, I see that qantas might want to increase capacity as it already has great frequency. With about half of the neo order as a321, I will predict that some will make their way over to qantas adding to the fleet or replacing some of the older 737s

There’s also Boeing’s NMA which I suspect will play a big role in QF’s fleet down the track. It’s just a matter of figuring out how the timeline works with the earliest 737s reaching retirement age in the mid-2020s and the NMA not looking likely to enter service before 2027 (assuming Boeing can deliver on time), plus I’m not sure QF can afford to wait that long to bring in something larger given the level of congestion at SYD.

The 739 has the benefit of slipping seamlessly into their current fleet but the A321 offers more flexibility in the long term to fly the aircraft as a stop gap solution then transfer to JQ or Asia around 2030 once the NMA is in service. I guess the decision comes down to cost and whether QF sees a long term role for a larger narrowbody outside the core east coast routes.

My 2c is that Qantas will go big on the 797, very big indeed. QF has a lot of 787 orders which it won't take up but which it obtained at insanely low rates from the initial order in 2005, it can use those as leverage for a good deal on the 797, which Joyce has said he wants for SYD-MEL as well as east-west and Asia. Would not surprise me to see domestic fleet renewal be a mix of 737MAX and 797.

For Virgin Australia its first 737MAX jets due end of 2019, I wonder if they will bring those forward to start of 2019 and use them as dedicated transcon fleet with JB's promised 'game changing' domestic business class, like some US airlines have A321T for example. Keep the 737s on other routes eg triangle.

CraigAnderson wrote:

My 2c is that Qantas will go big on the 797, very big indeed. QF has a lot of 787 orders which it won't take up but which it obtained at insanely low rates from the initial order in 2005, it can use those as leverage for a good deal on the 797, which Joyce has said he wants for SYD-MEL as well as east-west and Asia. Would not surprise me to see domestic fleet renewal be a mix of 737MAX and 797.

For Virgin Australia its first 737MAX jets due end of 2019, I wonder if they will bring those forward to start of 2019 and use them as dedicated transcon fleet with JB's promised 'game changing' domestic business class, like some US airlines have A321T for example. Keep the 737s on other routes eg triangle.

With the caps at SYD and gate restrictions at MEL, I feel it is likely that VA will probably end up swapping some of its 738-MAXs for 73J-MAX. These aircraft offer a bump in capacity but don't sacrifice range or require wider gates. The 73J is also a chance for the trans-con fleet as it will enable a bigger J class footprint without giving up Y class capacity.

I would imagine QF will probably use some of its A320 NEO orders for the mainline fleet. The 797 is obviously an option but it is realistically not going to arrive before 2026. I cannot believe QF will continue to fly the VX* 738s until then as they will be 25 years old which is just too old by QF's standards.

I wouldn't discount a scenario where QF takes around 10-15 A321neo from the group order as interim solution for relieving congestion on trunk routes and incremental capacity increases on domestic and short haul international. Then as the 797 enters the fleet these A321s can get transfered to one of the Jetstar operations.

vhqpa, I think you'r on the money. As for the 717's a lot of them are "new" in terms of hours flown, they are here for yonks.

vhqpa wrote:

I wouldn't discount a scenario where QF takes around 10-15 A321neo from the group order as interim solution for relieving congestion on trunk routes and incremental capacity increases on domestic and short haul international. Then as the 797 enters the fleet these A321s can get transfered to one of the Jetstar operations.

And using Qantas Link to operate them, with cheaper and more cost effective crewing operations?

Somehow I think QFLink getting 2x A320 ex-JQ for Western Australia, has more too it than they are publicly willing to say. Seems to be an good way to start an 'training ground' for QF Pilots for the A320 series, without having to put them on the current mainline contract.

aerokiwi wrote:

moa999 wrote:

The 321neo/Max10 with an angled lie-flat J product, but similar 12/162 seatcount would be a good addition.

Could be used on the narrower Asian routes and Perth flights.

The 797/MoM I see as a likely order and will be better suited to shorter domestic flights than the 330 or 787, which Qantas has flagged saying they are unlikely to take all 787 options.

If you get the 797 you probably don't need the larger smaller aircraft, unless substantial cask benefits.

Also of note is the 717s which are older than the oldest 737.

Good point on the 797 - I'd forgotten about that one. Widebody turnaround times on domestic are pretty atrocious so I do wonder about the "benefits" of their use on 1-2 hour segments.

I guess I'm looking at it from both a fleet simplicity and low-risk perspective - how can you maximise revenues and gate/runway capacity without adding a new type and without overdoing the new capacity should there be a new competitor or a downturn in traffic?

In practice 15 minute frequencies aren't actually very practicable and it's fairly common to see cancellations as pax are consolidated onto other flights. And both carriers seem to be getting close to the mid-high 80s load-factors on the trunk routes. So yes, even Virgin must be looking at an upgauge, particularly if they go through with the improved 737 domestic product, which they should.

Cancellations tend to be very infrequent especially on good weather days. QF have started having flights every 10 minutes on some mornings between SYD-MEL.

I remember reading that the problem with turnaround times for the A330 is how long it takes to refuel, not the boarding process.

My take on both QF & VA domestic fleets

I agree with others that QF will use the 797, when I think about this aircraft it reminds me of all the routes the 767 flew domestically. I am of the opinion this aircraft can not only be used for the trunk routes and trans con but on those routes that QF use to fly the 767 to where frequency wasn't important or to carry some cargo such as SYD-CNS, BNE-DRW, there is probably more routes as well. Along with the 797 I think paired with the 737MAX would be a good combination. I do think with the 2 combined a 737MAX8 would be sufficient.

Now for VA, OK after seeing their operation first hand for a while here are some observations (hint, hint). Firstly the way they use their 737's I am not really for the dubbed Perth product on the 737MAX. I think it should be either an all or nothing approach, this is purely based on an utilisation point of view. While a MINT style business class product or something similar would be overkill on some routes for the majority of the flights it would be fine. The reason I say this is on a daily basis from a PER perspective in between a transcon flight they will do an intra WA flight (PHE, KGI, ZNE, OCM). I would imagine that over on the east coast a similar pattern may happen to less premium heavy destinations. For this reason the 737MAX9 is out, it uses too much runway to use to those regional centres. Personally I think they should stay with one type, the 737MAX8 for utilisation efficiency. I guess the question is how they can do the business class without losing too many economy seats. If VA did make just a PER product another 1 or 2 A320's for VARA may be on the cards to accommodate those intra WA flights. Typically the loads on the PER-BNE/SYD/MEL 737 flights are pretty good, in most cases in the 80-90%, though sometimes higher or lower. I guess the other thing that dictates on how the 737MAX is taken whether its just the 8 or they go for the 10 is what happens with the remaining A332's. Now that there are only 4 A332's on domestic most days now, since SYD-HKG was launched on Monday I have noticed a much better use in utilisation of those 4 A332's. Looking at the loads VA does require something bigger than the 737MAX8. When the fleet renewal for the widebodies is due in the mid 2020's I personally think a 797/787 combination would fit in well, 797's to cover domestic and any Asian flying and 787's for the LH flying. The 797 may be beneficial for trans con if VA cant secure extra 737 flights due to congestion at SYD/MEL

Aerokiwi, regarding stairs for boarding, while I havent really watched passengers boarding I have seen them used for getting them off the aircraft. Stairs are used at selected gates here in PER, and the point of using them is to get them off as quickly as possible so cleaners and catering can get on board as quickly as possible so boarding can commence for the next flight. One thing I have noticed is you will always get a couple of passengers who fall behind the rest which can quite often hold things up and then you have those who get off the back that think they can wander around the tarmac as they please rather than heading to the terminal. I think boarding/deplaning can be efficient if it is done properly, in some cases that doesnt happen and of course that can lead to other problems such as delays.

Interesting points, thanks everyone.

I guess the drivers for each of QF and VA are different.

QF: The NEO order, the 797, an aging(ish) fleet of 738s, close to maxing out frequencies on some trunk routes.

VA: likely shift to simplify fleet (combine 330/77W), potential subfleet of 737s for transcons vs single fleet to service both major and regional ports, impending MAX deliveries.

A tricky one. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. May be tgat nothing happens and we just have status quo for a couple more years.