https://newsroom.hawaiianairlines.com/r ... ui-service

Dailly A321neo service beginning April 1, 2019 in addition to existing daily SMF-HNL service.

Easy fit, I expected HA to go head to head with AS in this market & wait until WN jumps in. AS seems committed to SMF having just added KOA

Preliminary attack on WN.

Second week in a row with a new Hawaii service announcement for SMF after AS announcing KOA, not giving WN a nice welcome onto the playground there.

This is really cool. It would've been interesting to see what HA could've done if those A321NEO were actually delivered on time. As things stands, there should be more of these secondary West coast market announced next year by HA. I can see them pre-empting WN in numerous markets that currently is only operated by AS, which should effectively lock WN out. I can still see WN enter SMF-HNL, but I can't see how SMF-OGG can handle 3 carriers. Good for competition, great for consumers.

All along, the threat of HA entering more of these SAN/SJC/OAK/SMF-HI once they get A321NEO were just as bad for AS profit line as WN entering them.

ScottB wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I can see them pre-empting WN in numerous markets that currently is only operated by AS, which should effectively lock WN out. I can still see WN enter SMF-HNL, but I can't see how SMF-OGG can handle 3 carriers. Good for competition, great for consumers.

I don't really see how HA going into SMF-OGG or AS into SMF-KOA effectively locks WN out. IMO frequent flyer loyalty in the SMF point-of-sale (at OAK & SAN as well) will ultimately be a key driver and WN holds the advantage there. If one thinks that WN will blink first in a three-way fight for Hawaii traffic then yes, they're locked out -- but I don't think that's true.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I really don't think there's much of a first-mover advantage in Hawaii markets.

Unless we're talking about slot or gate-constricted airports, WN isn't going to be locked out of anything. They were surely anticipating a strong fight from AS and HA and will be in it for the long haul.

Jeez Louise. How many more people can you really shuffle between Hawaii and the U.S.?

ucdtim17 wrote:

ScottB wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I can see them pre-empting WN in numerous markets that currently is only operated by AS, which should effectively lock WN out. I can still see WN enter SMF-HNL, but I can't see how SMF-OGG can handle 3 carriers. Good for competition, great for consumers.

I don't really see how HA going into SMF-OGG or AS into SMF-KOA effectively locks WN out. IMO frequent flyer loyalty in the SMF point-of-sale (at OAK & SAN as well) will ultimately be a key driver and WN holds the advantage there. If one thinks that WN will blink first in a three-way fight for Hawaii traffic then yes, they're locked out -- but I don't think that's true.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I really don't think there's much of a first-mover advantage in Hawaii markets.

Unless we're talking about slot or gate-constricted airports, WN isn't going to be locked out of anything. They were surely anticipating a strong fight from AS and HA and will be in it for the long haul.

I do think there is a first mover advantage.

The NEO and MAX are Changing the game to Hawaii. Yes, AS flew the 738, but the new engines shift the economics.

Lightsaber

ScottB wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I can see them pre-empting WN in numerous markets that currently is only operated by AS, which should effectively lock WN out. I can still see WN enter SMF-HNL, but I can't see how SMF-OGG can handle 3 carriers. Good for competition, great for consumers.

I don't really see how HA going into SMF-OGG or AS into SMF-KOA effectively locks WN out. IMO frequent flyer loyalty in the SMF point-of-sale (at OAK & SAN as well) will ultimately be a key driver and WN holds the advantage there. If one thinks that WN will blink first in a three-way fight for Hawaii traffic then yes, they're locked out -- but I don't think that's true.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I really don't think there's much of a first-mover advantage in Hawaii markets.

I think WN may face some challenges but I agree that their market strength in CA will allow them to break into markets easier than someone else.

jumbojet wrote:

Jeez Louise. How many more people can you really shuffle between Hawaii and the U.S.?

You're right. I guess DL should drop out of the market to make sure it doesn't get too crowded.

I also think it's a safe bet that Southwest will announce specifics of its Hawaii flights, including those from SMF, on or before the next schedule extension. Quite a time at Sacramento...

jumbojet wrote:

Jeez Louise. How many more people can you really shuffle between Hawaii and the U.S.?

West Coast to Hawaii demand is extensive, like BOS/NYC/WAS to Florida. It'll be great for Hawaii hotels.

jumbojet wrote:

Jeez Louise. How many more people can you really shuffle between Hawaii and the U.S.?

West Coast to Hawaii demand is extensive, like BOS/NYC/WAS to Florida. It'll be great for Hawaii hotels.

lightsaber wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

ScottB wrote:

I don't really see how HA going into SMF-OGG or AS into SMF-KOA effectively locks WN out. IMO frequent flyer loyalty in the SMF point-of-sale (at OAK & SAN as well) will ultimately be a key driver and WN holds the advantage there. If one thinks that WN will blink first in a three-way fight for Hawaii traffic then yes, they're locked out -- but I don't think that's true.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I really don't think there's much of a first-mover advantage in Hawaii markets.

Unless we're talking about slot or gate-constricted airports, WN isn't going to be locked out of anything. They were surely anticipating a strong fight from AS and HA and will be in it for the long haul.

I do think there is a first mover advantage.

The NEO and MAX are Changing the game to Hawaii. Yes, AS flew the 738, but the new engines shift the economics.

Lightsaber

With HA putting smaller capacity planes on these routes, should we expect to see more such routes *and* frequency (as opposed to less than weekly)?

MIflyer12 wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

Jeez Louise. How many more people can you really shuffle between Hawaii and the U.S.?

West Coast to Hawaii demand is extensive, like BOS/NYC/WAS to Florida. It'll be great for Hawaii hotels.

Exactly right. Hawaii flights are quite a bit more expensive than the main Mexico West Coast flights like SJD and PVR. The added competition and resultant prices will drive a big demand spike.

Downgauging SMF-HNL from A330 resulted in A321's to HNL and OGG. I'm sure they were routing OGG connections through HNL anyways and can now focus on O&D for both flights, with a few connections still on the HNL flight to the other airports.

Hawaiian uses their 767 on the SMF>HNL route. Their 330 were only used when there was not a spare 767. They are going to switch the 767 to A321neos by years end once the last 767 leaves the fleet. First one already left the fleet to UA with a couple more by summers end.

Xtremespeed01 wrote:

Hawaiian uses their 767 on the SMF>HNL route. Their 330 were only used when there was not a spare 767. They are going to switch the 767 to A321neos by years end once the last 767 leaves the fleet. First one already left the fleet to UA with a couple more by summers end.

I think what the person referring to the A332 might be referring to HA up-gauging the SMF-HNL route on 1/1/19-3/9/19 (back to 767 3/10-3/31 and then down gauging to A321 the same day SMF-OGG starts. Nevertheless, this is still resulting in increased overall capacity on HA from SMF on top the the added competition from AS on the SMF-OGG route.

I wonder if AS would respond to HA by adding their own SMF-HNL route or if they want to save their weapons for war until WN comes to the game. Would be nice to see some competition to Hawaii from SMF, I find connecting through LAX to Hawaii saves $100-200 over direct from SMF so there definitely seems to be some pent up demand for more seats to Hawaii. Im sure the added seats/competition will have no hard time filling up. I believe there seems to be quite a bit of pent up demand in the Sacramento market in general as well. According to the airport's recent traffic update there was an 11.8% increase in # of seats available from the year ago period on an increase in traffic of 12.3% from the year ago period. This basically means any added capacity airlines are adding to SMF is being absorbed by passengers. If fuel prices behave and the economy continues to do well, SMF will continue to grow at this rapid pace.

I honestly think that WN has their own following. I mean, they don’t even show up on Expedia or other 3rd party websites. So the people that will fly them to Hawaii are the same ones that seek them out in the upper 48. I don’t think they will have any issue filling there 737 on these routes.