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KD5MDK
Posts: 756
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:02 am

Getting an exemption for AUS-LGA and AUS-DCA would be the big opportunities for AA.
Anything else would require them to start up point to point flying (BOS, SJC, etc)
 
malev2012
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:09 am

CarlosSi wrote:
Slightly off topic, but is there an alternative to how AA and UA would expand from AUS other than adding frequencies or upgauging from expanding hubs (basically adding just seats)? Basically what would make a stop at one of their hubs more favorable over perhaps a nonstop with DL?

I guess upgauging would lower yields/cheap tickets, though I’m not so sure if that’s always in their best interest.

With megahubs so close AA/UA don't want to dilute the flow, so I mainly see upgauging.
Looking in the future O&D traffic will continue to grow as fast as the region grows, so PDEW for lots of city pairs will increase to where a regional jet is viable but not a 143 seat WN 737.
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:29 am

axiom wrote:
The thread title should be changed to "Could DL Build a Focus City at AUS?"

I keep coming to this thread looking for factual discussion related to the title, and I don't see it.


I keep coming to this thread because it reminds me of the supermarket checkout tabloids. "Woman gives birth to rabbit" and other absurdities. Once in awhile I offer comments like the other realists do here, but it's met with "Yeah but we hear stuff from someone at the port that collaborates what we are hoping for..." (COLLABORATES what we think? WTF I think you mean CORROBORATES).

Simple things like THAT make me really doubt there is much sophisticated intel that we skeptics are missing out on. So pass the popcorn. I'm interested in all this, but I'm also highly entertained.

and comments like this...
reggiet wrote:
With a 2017 pre-tax income of $5.5 billion and a fairly successful debt retirement plan the last few years, DL has a bit of mad money to take chances at diamonds in the rough like AUS.


This just seems like a real misunderstanding of how the aviation industry works. "Mad money?" to "take some chances like AUS"?
I think I'd be less eye-rolly if the fanboys would call out some of the excesses I just quoted when things as ridiculous as that get said. But it just gets left there. It just muddies the water hearing things like this reasoning. Maybe DL will beef up their service some, but "mad money to take chances?" C'mon get real. The airline biz is too thin on lifetime profits to operate this way, and any industry expert will tell you that. Makes the other things said less believable.
 
jplatts
Posts: 1486
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:05 pm

KD5MDK wrote:
Getting an exemption for AUS-LGA and AUS-DCA would be the big opportunities for AA.
Anything else would require them to start up point to point flying (BOS, SJC, etc)


WN is currently the only airline to serve DCA nonstop from AUS, and WN already is using its only beyond-perimeter slot exemption on the DCA-AUS route. DL also is already using its beyond-perimeter slot exemptions on its DCA-LAX and DCA-SLC nonstops. DL adding AUS-DCA nonstop service will not happen without extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions being added at DCA.

Both WN and DL could add operate Saturday-only nonstop service to LGA out of AUS, but DL does not usually do Saturday-only nonstops to beyond-perimeter destinations from LGA except for seasonal Saturday-only nonstop service to BZN from LGA. I think that WN is more likely than DL is to add Saturday-only nonstop service to LGA from AUS since WN is willing to do Saturday-only nonstop service to LGA from destinations such as PHX and SAT that do not have any nonstop service to LGA (even on a Saturday-only basis) on DL or AA.
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:58 pm

This certainly throws an interesting twist into the discussion about a big expansion of flights at AUS. No matter what anybody at the port may have for Insider info about some big expansion it's all about the bottom line. There is no room for speculative flying for Delta or any other airline.

(There's an identical article at the Wall Street Journal behind it pay wall but this one is free.)
Title is "Delta to cut flights amid rising fuel costs."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/business/rising-fuel-costs-cut-into-deltas-q2-revenues
 
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ERJ170
Posts: 5703
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:15 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:42 pm

This quote from the above article “The airline will focus its capacity cuts in markets where higher fuel costs cannot be offset with increased ticket costs, Delta president Glen Hauenstein told investors.” looks to me in saying LCC hubs/major stations are these types of places.. BWI, OAK, FLL.. etc... But I guess enilria next update may spell it out???
Aiming High and going far..
 
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flymco753
Posts: 2556
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:55 pm

It doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s going to be cuts in capacity, but rather frequency. I’m looking at DTW’s schedule for October and there’s a ton of A321’s. Seems like a lot of 737s are going MSP and west.
Resort, and other ground transportation options are on level 1.

*Future Route Network Planner*
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:13 pm

flymco753 wrote:
It doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s going to be cuts in capacity, but rather frequency. I’m looking at DTW’s schedule for October and there’s a ton of A321’s. Seems like a lot of 737s are going MSP and west.


Cuts <> additions

To your point, perhaps EXISTING city pairs can be made to have identical daily capacity if every current seat is somehow swapped for less frequent service on bigger planes,

But I shared the article as it related to GROWING the DL map of city pairs not currently servied. I was merely pointing out that in a time when DL and others will be tightening their belts due to fuel costs and announcing CUTS, it will be that much more challenging to ADD new flights anywhere, regardless of how badly airports want more service from their tenant airlines and regardless of alleged insider info..

We will see, but I just think the more austere times make it even less likely that most of this thread's speculations will come to pass.
 
Capn
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:11 pm

I don't have the exact quote ,but I believe the context of the statement was to draw down the schedule after the busy summer season, and allow fare increases to catch up the revenue stream.
I do not see this affecting 2019 expansion which I think will be substantial.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
LovePrunesAnet
Posts: 95
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:04 am

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:38 pm

Capn wrote:
I don't have the exact quote ,but I believe the context of the statement was to draw down the schedule after the busy summer season, and allow fare increases to catch up the revenue stream.
I do not see this affecting 2019 expansion which I think will be substantial.

i mean i think since they're saying that they're cutting flights due to rising fuel costs, that it's likely to stay in cutting mode as long as fuel is going up. If you can accurately predict that in 2019 fuel will be lower than now, you stand to make a healthy profit in the speculation market. If you aren't heavily invested that way, then I'd say maybe like most would agree, that NOBODY knows the price of fuel will be in 2019, and that it's just wishful thinking to say this issue won't be around then.
 
Capn
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:15 pm

Mr. Bastian said that DL. was comfortable operating in the current price range. They predict that by end of the year the fares will have caught up with fuel costs. Doesn't mean they won't keep going higher. They plan on trimming certain markets not in all, other than normal end of summer cuts
They think that their model will do fine.
They also believe that ULCCs will be most affected by the rise in fuel costs.
I happen to believe that the DELTA management team will continue to prosper the airline in any environment...
I guess we will see in the coming months.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
winginit
Posts: 1427
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:52 pm

From the July 12 Delta earnings call transcript:

Edward Russell

"Hi there. Thank you for taking my question. There has been some recent reports out of Austin about Delta having interest in potentially building a focus city there in the future, especially as the C-Series start to come in, sorry the A220s? Could you comment on this report and Delta's ambitions in Austin?"

Ed Bastian

"We are not going to comment on any future plans that haven't already been announced."
 
Capn
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:35 pm

No offense, but I don't get your point.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
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