AirFiero
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:25 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?


Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:25 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?


Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.
 
GSPSPOT
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:34 pm

Could we see AS make MKE-PDX mainline (like they did MKD-SEA) or at least make it year-round?
Great Lakes, great life.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:38 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
Anecdote but pretty shocking how few seats AS has Bay Area-PDX on evenings (post-6 pm). It's currently one A320 from SFO plus one E175 from OAK. WN has three 737s from OAK, three 737s from SJC and one from SFO. UA has one 737 and one A320 from SFO. #mostwestcoast


Yes, #mostwestcoast not #mostbayareaportland

Alaska always disappoints in one area or the other. But so does everyone else. How many years did we in SEA wait for WN to add nonstops to SoCal? UA LAX-SEA on a CR2? lol JetBlue? Don't get me started.

Give it time - maybe they'll come through for you. If you're holding your breath to meet your every expectation, though, then join the rest of us in passing out long before they do.


An observation, not a personal complaint. They can do what they want.


Well ya, and I'm certainly not attacking you or your comment. I feel the same way. Why do they not offer more in that market? Why did they put Q400s on PDX-OAK? Why don't they order the CSeries? Why are they not putting in a souped-up F class on transcons? Why did they get rid of IFE? And on and on and on. There are countless things that I'd like to see them (and others) do but am continually disappointed. It's hard to understand some of the decisions that these airlines make.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:02 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?


Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.


I would think there would be a market for more SJC-BOS service. Surprised AS hasn’t started it yet. AA did 4x back in the day,
 
pdxav8r
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:21 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
Anecdote but pretty shocking how few seats AS has Bay Area-PDX on evenings (post-6 pm). It's currently one A320 from SFO plus one E175 from OAK. WN has three 737s from OAK, three 737s from SJC and one from SFO. UA has one 737 and one A320 from SFO. #mostwestcoast


The reason could be that AS doesn’t need to funnel a lot of connections through SFO and OAK, as PDX has non-stops pretty much anywhere those stations do (on AS). Mainly O&D between those cities. WN is huge at both SJC and OAK, so there is a boatload of connecting passengers at those stations. Same for UA at SFO. Hence, why there isn’t the evening push through SFO, SJC, and OAK to PDX on AS.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:21 pm

pdxav8r wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
Anecdote but pretty shocking how few seats AS has Bay Area-PDX on evenings (post-6 pm). It's currently one A320 from SFO plus one E175 from OAK. WN has three 737s from OAK, three 737s from SJC and one from SFO. UA has one 737 and one A320 from SFO. #mostwestcoast


The reason could be that AS doesn’t need to funnel a lot of connections through SFO and OAK, as PDX has non-stops pretty much anywhere those stations do (on AS). Mainly O&D between those cities. WN is huge at both SJC and OAK, so there is a boatload of connecting passengers at those stations. Same for UA at SFO. Hence, why there isn’t the evening push through SFO, SJC, and OAK to PDX on AS.


True. I also think AS has backed themselves into a corner - of sorts - by having such good results the past several years. There is a lot of pressure on them to keep the margins up while working through this merger and battling it out with DL and WN. That is going to be a tough, if not futile, proposition. I'm sure all things being equal they'd add more flights in some of these markets, but if it just dilutes their own margins without adding to the network (as you say), it likely won't make the cut. That's probably why we're also seeing many of the cutbacks going on - the pain threshold just isn't going to be what it used to be, at least until the DLs and WNs start feeling it as well.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
tphuang
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:03 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?


Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.


They are not dropping bos sfo. It’s a very important route out of sfo. At this point, they still generate higher yield than delta. If delta with their extreme high costs are willing to tolerate the losses, there is no reason as cannot.

Bos lax is a different question. There is a lot of competition and they are the weakest.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:40 am

pdxav8r wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
Anecdote but pretty shocking how few seats AS has Bay Area-PDX on evenings (post-6 pm). It's currently one A320 from SFO plus one E175 from OAK. WN has three 737s from OAK, three 737s from SJC and one from SFO. UA has one 737 and one A320 from SFO. #mostwestcoast


The reason could be that AS doesn’t need to funnel a lot of connections through SFO and OAK, as PDX has non-stops pretty much anywhere those stations do (on AS). Mainly O&D between those cities. WN is huge at both SJC and OAK, so there is a boatload of connecting passengers at those stations. Same for UA at SFO. Hence, why there isn’t the evening push through SFO, SJC, and OAK to PDX on AS.


True but AS is also bigger at each airport (except OAK) than they’ve ever been and this is probably also the fewest seats they’ve had on these routes (within this time window) in modern history. They even ate another airline in that time with a hub at SFO and still don’t have more than one flight.
 
pdxav8r
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:57 am

ucdtim17 wrote:
pdxav8r wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
Anecdote but pretty shocking how few seats AS has Bay Area-PDX on evenings (post-6 pm). It's currently one A320 from SFO plus one E175 from OAK. WN has three 737s from OAK, three 737s from SJC and one from SFO. UA has one 737 and one A320 from SFO. #mostwestcoast


The reason could be that AS doesn’t need to funnel a lot of connections through SFO and OAK, as PDX has non-stops pretty much anywhere those stations do (on AS). Mainly O&D between those cities. WN is huge at both SJC and OAK, so there is a boatload of connecting passengers at those stations. Same for UA at SFO. Hence, why there isn’t the evening push through SFO, SJC, and OAK to PDX on AS.


True but AS is also bigger at each airport (except OAK) than they’ve ever been and this is probably also the fewest seats they’ve had on these routes (within this time window) in modern history. They even ate another airline in that time with a hub at SFO and still don’t have more than one flight.


Today, AS has 8 SFO-PDX flights, UA 9. Not sure of the big ‘to-do’. They each space them out at what they believe are their optimum times.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:18 am

pdxav8r wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
pdxav8r wrote:

The reason could be that AS doesn’t need to funnel a lot of connections through SFO and OAK, as PDX has non-stops pretty much anywhere those stations do (on AS). Mainly O&D between those cities. WN is huge at both SJC and OAK, so there is a boatload of connecting passengers at those stations. Same for UA at SFO. Hence, why there isn’t the evening push through SFO, SJC, and OAK to PDX on AS.


True but AS is also bigger at each airport (except OAK) than they’ve ever been and this is probably also the fewest seats they’ve had on these routes (within this time window) in modern history. They even ate another airline in that time with a hub at SFO and still don’t have more than one flight.


Today, AS has 8 SFO-PDX flights, UA 9. Not sure of the big ‘to-do’. They each space them out at what they believe are their optimum times.


I wasn’t aware the standard for posts in this thread is “big to do.” It’s a thing; an observation about the Alaska Airlines route network in 2018.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:48 am

I know OAK has been discussed on a couple of posts on this thread. And I know it's apparently not a real growth target for AS (mostly due to the large WN hub there.)

OAK-SAN however is a market that I keep waiting for AAG to jump into. AS is WN's only competition on SAN-SJC and SAN-SMF yet SAN-OAK continues to belong only to WN and judging by the number of flights they fly on the route, WN has a very nice monopoly going. And, IMO, AAG is losing out on some easy traffic that would help round out the very lucrative SAN-Bay Area market.

AS also now of course flies SAN-SFO as well as SAN-STS once daily so they really do serve the Bay Area ALMOST completely. OAK really IS the missing line on the routemap!

I continue to expect one of these days to see an announcement from AAG that they will soon begin flying 3 or 4 daily r/t in the SAN-OAK market!

bb
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:55 am

It'd be nice to see AS on SAN-OAK but I'm sure they know the hammer that will drop. They are a much smaller carrier than WN so probably are just trying not to bite off more than they can chew. IMHO
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
czbb
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:57 am

I have my fingers crossed that at least some of the [now delayed] PAE flights will end up being from BLI in the shortterm.
Out of BLI, AS have cut PDX, HNL & LAS over the last couple of years
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:27 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
It'd be nice to see AS on SAN-OAK but I'm sure they know the hammer that will drop. They are a much smaller carrier than WN so probably are just trying not to bite off more than they can chew. IMHO


The hammer is dropping from WN at SJC already, but AS is still pushing ahead there. I guess they figure whatever they do at SJC, the response from WN would be a little worse at OAK, so no point in trying? Even if that's the case, it's still odd to accept WN poisoning various wells with capacity and not attempting to retaliate at all on lucrative WN monopoly/semi-monopoly routes like OAK-SAN/SNA/LAX/BUR. Maybe now with PAE delayed they'll have a few uncommitted E175s they can drop on those routes for the near term.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:27 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
It'd be nice to see AS on SAN-OAK but I'm sure they know the hammer that will drop. They are a much smaller carrier than WN so probably are just trying not to bite off more than they can chew. IMHO


The hammer is dropping from WN at SJC already, but AS is still pushing ahead there. I guess they figure whatever they do at SJC, the response from WN would be a little worse at OAK, so no point in trying? Even if that's the case, it's still odd to accept WN poisoning various wells with capacity and not attempting to retaliate at all on lucrative WN monopoly/semi-monopoly routes like OAK-SAN/SNA/LAX/BUR. Maybe now with PAE delayed they'll have a few uncommitted E175s they can drop on those routes for the near term.


Well, I think it's just a matter of how many Bay Area battles do they want to take on? Having said that, maybe they'll jump in. I have no idea, but it's been clear for a long time that OAK is not something they've chosen to fight over.
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
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FA9295
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:11 pm

GSPSPOT wrote:
Could we see AS make MKE-PDX mainline (like they did MKD-SEA) or at least make it year-round?

I highly doubt it. AS has always struggled with their seasonal routes to/from PDX, so I wouldn't count on it anytime soon.
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:17 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
It'd be nice to see AS on SAN-OAK but I'm sure they know the hammer that will drop. They are a much smaller carrier than WN so probably are just trying not to bite off more than they can chew. IMHO


The hammer is dropping from WN at SJC already, but AS is still pushing ahead there. I guess they figure whatever they do at SJC, the response from WN would be a little worse at OAK, so no point in trying? Even if that's the case, it's still odd to accept WN poisoning various wells with capacity and not attempting to retaliate at all on lucrative WN monopoly/semi-monopoly routes like OAK-SAN/SNA/LAX/BUR. Maybe now with PAE delayed they'll have a few uncommitted E175s they can drop on those routes for the near term.


Well, I think it's just a matter of how many Bay Area battles do they want to take on? Having said that, maybe they'll jump in. I have no idea, but it's been clear for a long time that OAK is not something they've chosen to fight over.


Other than Hawaii it seems AS has had no interest in expanding at OAK. They discontinued OAK-SNA in the past.

QX did OAK-SUN seasonally like once but that didn’t last either.
 
pdxav8r
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:08 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
It'd be nice to see AS on SAN-OAK but I'm sure they know the hammer that will drop. They are a much smaller carrier than WN so probably are just trying not to bite off more than they can chew. IMHO


The hammer is dropping from WN at SJC already, but AS is still pushing ahead there. I guess they figure whatever they do at SJC, the response from WN would be a little worse at OAK, so no point in trying? Even if that's the case, it's still odd to accept WN poisoning various wells with capacity and not attempting to retaliate at all on lucrative WN monopoly/semi-monopoly routes like OAK-SAN/SNA/LAX/BUR. Maybe now with PAE delayed they'll have a few uncommitted E175s they can drop on those routes for the near term.


Well, I think it's just a matter of how many Bay Area battles do they want to take on? Having said that, maybe they'll jump in. I have no idea, but it's been clear for a long time that OAK is not something they've chosen to fight over.


Yeah, probably picking their battles. While OAK-PDX on WN offers 6 flights and about 900 seats a day, AS only has 3 and about 225 seats per day. Not sure if it is related to Q400 retirements or not, but AS now has all 3 flights with the E175's, so at least they are the only carrier to offer 2-class service, which is an upgrade from the Q's.
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:31 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
The hammer is dropping from WN at SJC already, but AS is still pushing ahead there. I guess they figure whatever they do at SJC, the response from WN would be a little worse at OAK, so no point in trying? Even if that's the case, it's still odd to accept WN poisoning various wells with capacity and not attempting to retaliate at all on lucrative WN monopoly/semi-monopoly routes like OAK-SAN/SNA/LAX/BUR. Maybe now with PAE delayed they'll have a few uncommitted E175s they can drop on those routes for the near term.

Well, I think it's just a matter of how many Bay Area battles do they want to take on? Having said that, maybe they'll jump in. I have no idea, but it's been clear for a long time that OAK is not something they've chosen to fight over.

Other than Hawaii it seems AS has had no interest in expanding at OAK. They discontinued OAK-SNA in the past.
QX did OAK-SUN seasonally like once but that didn’t last either.

I have no idea what the traffic levels were on those 2 discontinued routes but I do know that, according to DOT Table 1a, SAN-OAK saw an average in 2017 of 875 PDEW. WN carried 98% of the traffic. (Huh? 98%? Not 100% when they’re the only carrier in the market? Who would change planes in LA when flying SAN-OAK? Yeah, I know, avgeeks, that’s who! Or of course those who simply will not fly WN.)

AS currently flies from SAN to SFO/SJC/STS/SMF; SAN is an AS focus city and AS’s 3rd largest station in CA. AS will start flying SAN-OAK at some point, if for no other reason, they need to fly from their focus city to the largest markets in the state. Will anyone argue that almost 900 PDEW is not a major market?

If need be, let’s say SAN-OAK would be a SAN route, not an OAK one. It makes no difference what AS’s view of OAK is, they need to serve that city to improve their state coverage from SAN. Is AS going to chase WN from the market? No more than they’ve beat out WN in SAN-SJC, SAN-SFO or SAN-SMF. But AS can surely fill 150 seats a day each way with their loyal flyers in a market that size.

bb
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:42 pm

SANFan wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Well, I think it's just a matter of how many Bay Area battles do they want to take on? Having said that, maybe they'll jump in. I have no idea, but it's been clear for a long time that OAK is not something they've chosen to fight over.

Other than Hawaii it seems AS has had no interest in expanding at OAK. They discontinued OAK-SNA in the past.
QX did OAK-SUN seasonally like once but that didn’t last either.

I have no idea what the traffic levels were on those 2 discontinued routes but I do know that, according to DOT Table 1a, SAN-OAK saw an average in 2017 of 875 PDEW. WN carried 98% of the traffic. (Huh? 98%? Not 100% when they’re the only carrier in the market? Who would change planes in LA when flying SAN-OAK? Yeah, I know, avgeeks, that’s who! Or of course those who simply will not fly WN.)

AS currently flies from SAN to SFO/SJC/STS/SMF; SAN is an AS focus city and AS’s 3rd largest station in CA. AS will start flying SAN-OAK at some point, if for no other reason, they need to fly from their focus city to the largest markets in the state. Will anyone argue that almost 900 PDEW is not a major market?

If need be, let’s say SAN-OAK would be a SAN route, not an OAK one. It makes no difference what AS’s view of OAK is, they need to serve that city to improve their state coverage from SAN. Is AS going to chase WN from the market? No more than they’ve beat out WN in SAN-SJC, SAN-SFO or SAN-SMF. But AS can surely fill 150 seats a day each way with their loyal flyers in a market that size.

bb


Yeah that part is bizarre to me - to be so averse to serving OAK you'll spite yourself in other markets you actually are trying to serve comprehensively.

On top of that, they're spending a lot of money on advertising in Oakland, and on Oakland-specific advertising (even at SFO strangely enough), but still not adding any service they didn't have in the depths of the recession 6 years ago (which is less than they had 10-20 years ago.) ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Last edited by ucdtim17 on Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 9:43 pm

I wouldn't argue against any of your SAN-OAK rationale other than to say that i don't think it's necessarily about AS' views on OAK but rather AS' views on WN in regards to OAK. 900 PDEW is huge. So is WN. :-)
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
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SANFan
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:04 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I wouldn't argue against any of your SAN-OAK rationale other than to say that i don't think it's necessarily about AS' views on OAK but rather AS' views on WN in regards to OAK. 900 PDEW is huge. So is WN. :-)

Absolutely but I wonder how many thought the same thing when AS started SAN-SJC in summer of 2016 (at that time a WN monopoly with 10 daily r/t in the market) and SAN-SMF in spring of 2017 (another WN monopoly also flown 10x daily)? And yes, WN did add frequencies in both those markets as soon as AS entered them; OTOH, AS last month added an additional r/t in the SAN-SJC market. WN currently -- for the summer -- offers 12 daily r/t between SAN and OAK.

I think there are enough exec business travelers who can and will fly F/C (and therefore, AS) to help assure AS of viable loads on their intra-state routes out of SAN. I think that has been the case in the other such markets from SAN.

bb
 
Chugach
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:15 pm

Not sure where the 76% load factor for AS at Anchorage is coming from...BTS has it at around 82% for 2017. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=5

My completely anecdotal observation after 12 years spent in ANC is that AS is usually packed on ANC-L48/Hawaii/JNU, decently full on ANC-FAI depending on time of day, and at least half empty on most bush flights.
 
tphuang
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:28 pm

SANFan wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I wouldn't argue against any of your SAN-OAK rationale other than to say that i don't think it's necessarily about AS' views on OAK but rather AS' views on WN in regards to OAK. 900 PDEW is huge. So is WN. :-)

Absolutely but I wonder how many thought the same thing when AS started SAN-SJC in summer of 2016 (at that time a WN monopoly with 10 daily r/t in the market) and SAN-SMF in spring of 2017 (another WN monopoly also flown 10x daily)? And yes, WN did add frequencies in both those markets as soon as AS entered them; OTOH, AS last month added an additional r/t in the SAN-SJC market. WN currently -- for the summer -- offers 12 daily r/t between SAN and OAK.

I think there are enough exec business travelers who can and will fly F/C (and therefore, AS) to help assure AS of viable loads on their intra-state routes out of SAN. I think that has been the case in the other such markets from SAN.

bb


But as doesn’t do well in these markets at all. And there are only so many loss making markets it’s willing to endure when the fuel prices are this high. I think that people are going to see more cuts from every carrier over the next year as fuel prices stay high. Airlines are going to pick and choose their battles. And as has made the choice of strengthening its Hawaiian flights. Which on the face seems like a logical choice.
 
ucdtim17
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
But as doesn’t do well in these markets at all. And there are only so many loss making markets it’s willing to endure when the fuel prices are this high. I think that people are going to see more cuts from every carrier over the next year as fuel prices stay high. Airlines are going to pick and choose their battles. And as has made the choice of strengthening its Hawaiian flights. Which on the face seems like a logical choice.


Any other evidence re Hawaii or are you just referencing SMF-KOA? It's been very quiet otherwise (quiet all year in general for AS; only a few new routes).
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:41 pm

SANFan wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I wouldn't argue against any of your SAN-OAK rationale other than to say that i don't think it's necessarily about AS' views on OAK but rather AS' views on WN in regards to OAK. 900 PDEW is huge. So is WN. :-)

Absolutely but I wonder how many thought the same thing when AS started SAN-SJC in summer of 2016 (at that time a WN monopoly with 10 daily r/t in the market) and SAN-SMF in spring of 2017 (another WN monopoly also flown 10x daily)? And yes, WN did add frequencies in both those markets as soon as AS entered them; OTOH, AS last month added an additional r/t in the SAN-SJC market. WN currently -- for the summer -- offers 12 daily r/t between SAN and OAK.

I think there are enough exec business travelers who can and will fly F/C (and therefore, AS) to help assure AS of viable loads on their intra-state routes out of SAN. I think that has been the case in the other such markets from SAN.

bb


I'm certainly not arguing that it would be a stupid decision or that it won't happen. I'm just saying that it hasn't happened, and you then have to ask why? Not enough resources? Competitive reasons? Focus on SFO/SJC?

If AS announced SAN-OAK 4 daily tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked. Until then, though, they seem to have decided that it isn't worth doing. Yet. :-)
-Dave


”Yet somewhere in Iceland a great anger stirred in the soul of a troubled individual...” - Revelation
 
tphuang
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:07 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
But as doesn’t do well in these markets at all. And there are only so many loss making markets it’s willing to endure when the fuel prices are this high. I think that people are going to see more cuts from every carrier over the next year as fuel prices stay high. Airlines are going to pick and choose their battles. And as has made the choice of strengthening its Hawaiian flights. Which on the face seems like a logical choice.


Any other evidence re Hawaii or are you just referencing SMF-KOA? It's been very quiet otherwise (quiet all year in general for AS; only a few new routes).

Just that and an interview on cranky flier which seem to indicate they are going to add to Hawaii. I
 
AirFiero
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:26 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
SANFan wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
I wouldn't argue against any of your SAN-OAK rationale other than to say that i don't think it's necessarily about AS' views on OAK but rather AS' views on WN in regards to OAK. 900 PDEW is huge. So is WN. :-)

Absolutely but I wonder how many thought the same thing when AS started SAN-SJC in summer of 2016 (at that time a WN monopoly with 10 daily r/t in the market) and SAN-SMF in spring of 2017 (another WN monopoly also flown 10x daily)? And yes, WN did add frequencies in both those markets as soon as AS entered them; OTOH, AS last month added an additional r/t in the SAN-SJC market. WN currently -- for the summer -- offers 12 daily r/t between SAN and OAK.

I think there are enough exec business travelers who can and will fly F/C (and therefore, AS) to help assure AS of viable loads on their intra-state routes out of SAN. I think that has been the case in the other such markets from SAN.

bb


I'm certainly not arguing that it would be a stupid decision or that it won't happen. I'm just saying that it hasn't happened, and you then have to ask why? Not enough resources? Competitive reasons? Focus on SFO/SJC?

If AS announced SAN-OAK 4 daily tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked. Until then, though, they seem to have decided that it isn't worth doing. Yet. :-)


Just like I was saying about AS and the eastern cities, they can’t be all things to all people everywhere. They have to pick their battles. And isn’t OAK the largest WN station in California? And one of WNs biggest, system wide? How about station size of OAK versus SJC? Maybe SJC is a better battleground for AS at least for now? Of course, WN seems to be upping the ante at SJC now. It’s going to be interesting to watch. :bouncy:
 
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FA9295
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:19 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?

I don't know why they would. BOS seems like a pretty good market for AS, considering that a second PDX-BOS flight was recently added. I think we may also see SJC-BOS in the near future as well.
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
tphuang
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:02 am

FA9295 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?

I don't know why they would. BOS seems like a pretty good market for AS, considering that a second PDX-BOS flight was recently added. I think we may also see SJC-BOS in the near future as well.

Because mint out of bos has killed as performance on many of the transcon.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:38 pm

Chugach wrote:
Not sure where the 76% load factor for AS at Anchorage is coming from...BTS has it at around 82% for 2017. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=5

My completely anecdotal observation after 12 years spent in ANC is that AS is usually packed on ANC-L48/Hawaii/JNU, decently full on ANC-FAI depending on time of day, and at least half empty on most bush flights.

Mainline only?
I included AS/QX/VX in the numbers and adjusred for stage length using the DOT's own numbers, so I'm not sure where that difference comes from.
UA DL LH NW AA --- Next DEN-IND (UA TBD)
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
Chugach
Posts: 1159
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:32 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Chugach wrote:
Not sure where the 76% load factor for AS at Anchorage is coming from...BTS has it at around 82% for 2017. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=5

My completely anecdotal observation after 12 years spent in ANC is that AS is usually packed on ANC-L48/Hawaii/JNU, decently full on ANC-FAI depending on time of day, and at least half empty on most bush flights.

Mainline only?
I included AS/QX/VX in the numbers and adjusred for stage length using the DOT's own numbers, so I'm not sure where that difference comes from.


Must be the difference, although you wouldn’t think Horizon running two routes out of ANC would have that big of a swing on the overall number.
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:43 pm

FA9295 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?

I don't know why they would. BOS seems like a pretty good market for AS, considering that a second PDX-BOS flight was recently added. I think we may also see SJC-BOS in the near future as well.


There's no competition on PDX-BOS (B6 seasonal) and way too much competition on BOS-LAX/SFO. I don't think anyone is doing well on those routes.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 4719
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:31 pm

AirFiero wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Absolutely but I wonder how many thought the same thing when AS started SAN-SJC in summer of 2016 (at that time a WN monopoly with 10 daily r/t in the market) and SAN-SMF in spring of 2017 (another WN monopoly also flown 10x daily)? And yes, WN did add frequencies in both those markets as soon as AS entered them; OTOH, AS last month added an additional r/t in the SAN-SJC market. WN currently -- for the summer -- offers 12 daily r/t between SAN and OAK.

I think there are enough exec business travelers who can and will fly F/C (and therefore, AS) to help assure AS of viable loads on their intra-state routes out of SAN. I think that has been the case in the other such markets from SAN.
bb

Just like I was saying about AS and the eastern cities, they can’t be all things to all people everywhere. They have to pick their battles. And isn’t OAK the largest WN station in California? And one of WNs biggest, system wide? How about station size of OAK versus SJC? Maybe SJC is a better battleground for AS at least for now?

I never suggested that AS was going to head into OAK with guns a-blazin’ in order to take over OAK from WN. Yes , I agree that OAK is the largest WN hub in CA and in the Top Ten largest hubs in their network.

I am talking about one route – OAK-SAN. I’m not talking about OAK-LA, OAK-AUS, OAK-BWI or OAK-SEA. I’m talking about a single route that is, in fact, about SAN and not about OAK.

Many, no, make that most, new routes are centered around one of the cities involved. When AS announced SJC-JFK, it was about SJC, not New York City; they are expanding SJC by connecting that focus city with major destinations around the AS network. Sure the routes are all round trip, but the primary point is getting their travelers from and back to SJC. Will you agree with me on that? (BTW, IMHO, SAN-SJC is a rare exception and is about BOTH cities involved, since both are AS focus cities.)

SAN-OAK is about SAN folks getting to and from OAK. Yes, there will be some pax originating in OAK as well but that’s not the overwhelming reason AS will add the route. In 4Q17, the top 5 routes (pax-wise and according to DOT statistics) starting with the largest, from SAN were: SFO, SJC, SEA, SMF and OAK. (Notice that AS already serves the first 4 of them, and 4 of the 5 are intra-CA routes.)

If AS wants to serve THE major routes from their focus city in SoCal, they need to add OAK. Period.

bb
 
AirFiero
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:43 pm

SANFan wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
Just like I was saying about AS and the eastern cities, they can’t be all things to all people everywhere. They have to pick their battles. And isn’t OAK the largest WN station in California? And one of WNs biggest, system wide? How about station size of OAK versus SJC? Maybe SJC is a better battleground for AS at least for now?

I never suggested that AS was going to head into OAK with guns a-blazin’ in order to take over OAK from WN. Yes , I agree that OAK is the largest WN hub in CA and in the Top Ten largest hubs in their network.

I am talking about one route – OAK-SAN. I’m not talking about OAK-LA, OAK-AUS, OAK-BWI or OAK-SEA. I’m talking about a single route that is, in fact, about SAN and not about OAK.

Many, no, make that most, new routes are centered around one of the cities involved. When AS announced SJC-JFK, it was about SJC, not New York City; they are expanding SJC by connecting that focus city with major destinations around the AS network. Sure the routes are all round trip, but the primary point is getting their travelers from and back to SJC. Will you agree with me on that? (BTW, IMHO, SAN-SJC is a rare exception and is about BOTH cities involved, since both are AS focus cities.)

SAN-OAK is about SAN folks getting to and from OAK. Yes, there will be some pax originating in OAK as well but that’s not the overwhelming reason AS will add the route. In 4Q17, the top 5 routes (pax-wise and according to DOT statistics) starting with the largest, from SAN were: SFO, SJC, SEA, SMF and OAK. (Notice that AS already serves the first 4 of them, and 4 of the 5 are intra-CA routes.)

If AS wants to serve THE major routes from their focus city in SoCal, they need to add OAK. Period.

bb


I wasn’t meaning to argue with you, or downplay the importance of SAN or any particular market. My point is that AS only has so many planes, pilots and other resources. Being that OAK is a HUGE station for WN, perhaps AS is going after markets not as well served, or with less competition already in place?

You mentioned SJC-JFK. At the time AS announced the the route, there was only one other carrier and flight which is B6 (currently flying it, DL announced a summer 2018 start). Both of those are red eyes, AS is flying it daytime. Although it is three carriers versus one, how many WN flights did you say there are on OAK-SAN? 12? That seems like a much bigger mountain to climb.
 
c933103
Posts: 2814
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:05 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
ANC 76.7%
PSP 76.4%
BLI 75.1%
FAI 73.9%
SBA 71.8%
SLC 70.8%
KTN 65.7%
ADQ 64.3%
JNU 63.7%
SIT 63.0%
OME 61.1%
PSG 60.5%
WRG 55.9%
BET 55.3%
OTZ 54.5%
BRW 53.9%
SCC 53.0%
DLG 49.9%
AKN 47.0%
CDV 39.9%
GST 36.8%
YAK 34.1%
ADK 25.2%
Grand Total 82.4%

Then again why aren't they downgauging to regional aircrafts on Intra-Alaskan routes? Even if the regional airlines pulled out, wouldn't it still make more financial sense if mainline*operated smaller planes are used?
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 441
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:10 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?

I don't know why they would. BOS seems like a pretty good market for AS, considering that a second PDX-BOS flight was recently added. I think we may also see SJC-BOS in the near future as well.


There's no competition on PDX-BOS (B6 seasonal) and way too much competition on BOS-LAX/SFO. I don't think anyone is doing well on those routes.


So you think BOS-LAX/SFO will not survive the end of the year?
 
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FA9295
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:23 pm

c933103 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ANC 76.7%
PSP 76.4%
BLI 75.1%
FAI 73.9%
SBA 71.8%
SLC 70.8%
KTN 65.7%
ADQ 64.3%
JNU 63.7%
SIT 63.0%
OME 61.1%
PSG 60.5%
WRG 55.9%
BET 55.3%
OTZ 54.5%
BRW 53.9%
SCC 53.0%
DLG 49.9%
AKN 47.0%
CDV 39.9%
GST 36.8%
YAK 34.1%
ADK 25.2%
Grand Total 82.4%

Then again why aren't they downgauging to regional aircrafts on Intra-Alaskan routes? Even if the regional airlines pulled out, wouldn't it still make more financial sense if mainline*operated smaller planes are used?

I think it has to do with aircraft resourcing issues. An E175 would have a very hard time (let alone a DH4) flying from SEA/PDX to ANC/FAI, so those aircraft would solely have to fly on intra-Alaska routes only if they would be deployed in Alaska, which is not very productive.
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1095
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:37 pm

IMO AS may have been a bit over ambitious with route expansion. Many of these newer routes took place just as the merger with VX was happening. It'll take a bit for things to stabilize. Which might count for some of the recent cutbacks on routes.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
c933103
Posts: 2814
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:36 pm

FA9295 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ANC 76.7%
PSP 76.4%
BLI 75.1%
FAI 73.9%
SBA 71.8%
SLC 70.8%
KTN 65.7%
ADQ 64.3%
JNU 63.7%
SIT 63.0%
OME 61.1%
PSG 60.5%
WRG 55.9%
BET 55.3%
OTZ 54.5%
BRW 53.9%
SCC 53.0%
DLG 49.9%
AKN 47.0%
CDV 39.9%
GST 36.8%
YAK 34.1%
ADK 25.2%
Grand Total 82.4%

Then again why aren't they downgauging to regional aircrafts on Intra-Alaskan routes? Even if the regional airlines pulled out, wouldn't it still make more financial sense if mainline*operated smaller planes are used?

I think it has to do with aircraft resourcing issues. An E175 would have a very hard time (let alone a DH4) flying from SEA/PDX to ANC/FAI, so those aircraft would solely have to fly on intra-Alaska routes only if they would be deployed in Alaska, which is not very productive.

They could fly SEA-JNU-ANC if they wanted
 
Chugach
Posts: 1159
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:18 am

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:06 pm

FA9295 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ANC 76.7%
PSP 76.4%
BLI 75.1%
FAI 73.9%
SBA 71.8%
SLC 70.8%
KTN 65.7%
ADQ 64.3%
JNU 63.7%
SIT 63.0%
OME 61.1%
PSG 60.5%
WRG 55.9%
BET 55.3%
OTZ 54.5%
BRW 53.9%
SCC 53.0%
DLG 49.9%
AKN 47.0%
CDV 39.9%
GST 36.8%
YAK 34.1%
ADK 25.2%
Grand Total 82.4%

Then again why aren't they downgauging to regional aircrafts on Intra-Alaskan routes? Even if the regional airlines pulled out, wouldn't it still make more financial sense if mainline*operated smaller planes are used?

I think it has to do with aircraft resourcing issues. An E175 would have a very hard time (let alone a DH4) flying from SEA/PDX to ANC/FAI, so those aircraft would solely have to fly on intra-Alaska routes only if they would be deployed in Alaska, which is not very productive.


DL has done SEA-FAI on the E175 in the recent past.
 
Chugach
Posts: 1159
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:18 am

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:15 pm

c933103 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
ANC 76.7%
PSP 76.4%
BLI 75.1%
FAI 73.9%
SBA 71.8%
SLC 70.8%
KTN 65.7%
ADQ 64.3%
JNU 63.7%
SIT 63.0%
OME 61.1%
PSG 60.5%
WRG 55.9%
BET 55.3%
OTZ 54.5%
BRW 53.9%
SCC 53.0%
DLG 49.9%
AKN 47.0%
CDV 39.9%
GST 36.8%
YAK 34.1%
ADK 25.2%
Grand Total 82.4%

Then again why aren't they downgauging to regional aircrafts on Intra-Alaskan routes? Even if the regional airlines pulled out, wouldn't it still make more financial sense if mainline*operated smaller planes are used?


1. Cargo is a big deal intra-Alaska
2. Most of the intra-Alaska routes are triangles or milk runs; just because YAK has a 34% load factor doesn’t mean the plane is 66% empty at YAK
3. They already tried the Q400 up there and it didn’t work well operationally; also, the E175 has documented performance issues in extreme cold
4. They have very limited competition, which makes pricing more advantageous from the perspective of the airline
 
32andBelow
Posts: 3692
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:08 am

c933103 wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Then again why aren't they downgauging to regional aircrafts on Intra-Alaskan routes? Even if the regional airlines pulled out, wouldn't it still make more financial sense if mainline*operated smaller planes are used?

I think it has to do with aircraft resourcing issues. An E175 would have a very hard time (let alone a DH4) flying from SEA/PDX to ANC/FAI, so those aircraft would solely have to fly on intra-Alaska routes only if they would be deployed in Alaska, which is not very productive.

They could fly SEA-JNU-ANC if they wanted

Not without getting qualified for all those special approaches into south east. Unless they want to divert all the time like the delta e175s do
 
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Tomassjc
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Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:36 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?


Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.


It would have to be a mid day or a redeye, unless something got moved or discontinued to make room for it. There's simply no overnight gate space with 12 to 14 AS RONs and 6 AS gates. They're even parking planes overnight on the parallel taxiway.
When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
 
AirFiero
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:41 pm

Tomassjc wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?


Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.


It would have to be a mid day or a redeye, unless something got moved or discontinued to make room for it. There's simply no overnight gate space with 12 to 14 AS RONs and 6 AS gates. They're even parking planes overnight on the parallel taxiway.


Thier JFK add has a 7am departure time. They must have found room somewhere.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 4719
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:56 pm

Tomassjc wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Will AS pull the plug on BOS-LAX/SFO?

Or maybe move it to SJC? :D
It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.

It would have to be a mid day or a redeye, unless something got moved or discontinued to make room for it. There's simply no overnight gate space with 12 to 14 AS RONs and 6 AS gates. They're even parking planes overnight on the parallel taxiway.

Very interesting Tom. I wondered how SJC was doing with AS RONs. In the situation at SAN, as the 8/26 skeds currently stand, we will be seeing 17 RONs every night and I imagine SFO and LAX aren't much better off! With SEA being well known to having essentially run out of space, it looks like AS is really short on places to keep their fleet overnight on the w/c!.. (I don't know what the situation is at PDX but it's got to be getting tight also.)

AS just moved SAN's BWI flight to a morning departure (from a red-eye) with a nighttime return so that's one of those 17 RONs. The flight will certainly do much better traffic-wise but holy cow, SAN is only 663 acres so how much more overnight parking can the airport handle? Again, like you said Tom, more red-eyes and mid-day turns is really the only answer.

bb
 
User avatar
Tomassjc
Posts: 721
Joined: Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:38 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:23 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Tomassjc wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Or maybe move it to SJC? :D

It would be nice to have a daytime flight on this route.


It would have to be a mid day or a redeye, unless something got moved or discontinued to make room for it. There's simply no overnight gate space with 12 to 14 AS RONs and 6 AS gates. They're even parking planes overnight on the parallel taxiway.


Thier JFK add has a 7am departure time. They must have found room somewhere.


They did. But it's tight. A lot of aircraft tows involved.
When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
 
Chugach
Posts: 1159
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:18 am

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:13 pm

32andBelow wrote:
c933103 wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I think it has to do with aircraft resourcing issues. An E175 would have a very hard time (let alone a DH4) flying from SEA/PDX to ANC/FAI, so those aircraft would solely have to fly on intra-Alaska routes only if they would be deployed in Alaska, which is not very productive.

They could fly SEA-JNU-ANC if they wanted

Not without getting qualified for all those special approaches into south east. Unless they want to divert all the time like the delta e175s do


Splitting hairs here, but DL just started running the E175 into SIT and KTN this month. They’ve had one diversion that I’ve seen, and that was a day that AS couldn’t land either.

The CR7 had all the issues when they tried to run it to JNU in the winter without the upgraded navigational capability. I believe DL mainline now has the same approach and departure technology for JNU that AS has.
 
User avatar
usxguy
Posts: 1526
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:28 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines Network Thread 2018

Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:12 am

yes, Delta has RNP and JAWS in JNU now.

SkyWest's issues in Juneau weren't the arrivals - it was the departures.
xx

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