Fridays in July & early-August are the peak day of the peak season; the busiest travel days both in terms of a capacity flown and passenger counts fall on Summer Fridays.

So the departures on those days reflect the high-water mark throughout the calendar year.

Obviously there are some markets, particularly some of the sun/beach markets that have peak capacity/passenger counts - typically Saturdays in March & early April. Or ski markets that peak capacity during Christmas/New Years holiday and Saturdays from Mid-Feb through end of March.

Rbgso wrote:

I'm amazed that ATL is still so MD88 dominated. That's a lot of departures for that plane.

Yes, and many of those MD88 routes aren't acceptable for the 321 and 739 replacements. I guess those MD88 routes will move to MD90's and 717's, and eventually 320's and 738's when the MD90's are retired.

MKE 7/23/18

2 739
2 738
3 M90
1 320
6 M88
1 319
3 717
3 E75
6 CR9
4 E70
1 CR7
1 CRJ

31 departures, 3,613 seats
58.1% mainline

In addition to adding MKE to the list of reports I also think it's a bit notable that without "focus city" status it isn't too hard to for mid-sized cities to hit 25-35 flights per day.

Finally, thanks as always for all your data FSDan...very interesting!

FSDan wrote:

I don't live in a major hub metro. I don't have a strong bias for or against any one airport. I don't work for an airline. What motivation do you think I would have for "grasping for straws to find a positive spin"? I'm calling it like I see it, and what I see is that DL's MSP hub has significantly more mainline service and significantly fewer flights on 50-seaters than it did a few years ago.

S12 - DL @ MSP is 41.3% mainline, with 156 departures on 50-seaters
S13 - DL @ MSP is 40.4% mainline, with 158 departures on 50-seaters
S14 - DL @ MSP is 46.2% mainline, with 137 departures on 50-seaters
...
S18 - DL @ MSP is 54.6% mainline, with 90 departures on 50 seaters

I guess the overall trend of upgauging stuck out to me more than the very small increase in CRJ departures (which you could explain away the same way you did for JFK if you wanted to - there were 5 ER4 departures from MSP in 2014 that have become 4 CRJ departures).

Good question! So why do you have that propensity? What's your point for it? I'm calling it based on the facts, not just how I see it. The facts say it's not even a question that MSP has been a relative loser in DL's up-gauging strategy and overall expansion. You continue to avoid that core point. It doesn't mean anything on its own that MSP has seen mainline increases and 50-seat decreases. Essentially every DL station has seen that. What matters is the degree of change in the type and overall capacity. There is where MSP is losing out. Their overall mainline % isn't particularly high. It's rate of mainline % increase isn't on the high side, even with a low base. It's lost its Embraers in favor of CR7/9s, which are in general inferior for all passengers, leaving it only one of two stations to see a CRJ increase in the past four years (It's up 4 without the E145s counted, not with, so 4 is conservative). Maybe that wouldn't be a big deal if it doesn't have many to start with, but no, it also has the 2nd-highest percentage of CRJ flights. And this is the same airline that has two significant hubs with zero CRJ flights. And to top it off, it's also one of the slowest growing hubs, even with its top margins. So there, those are the facts taken right from your tallies.

axiom wrote:

Always find DL's gigantic FL footprint to be interesting. Here are the two large Central Florida stations to begin... would be good to see South Florida and the smaller stations too. And this is far from peak season...

MCO

320: 7
321: 12
M88: 1
712: 3
738: 3
739: 3
752: 24 (!)
753: 2
763: 2

Total = 55
Mainline = 100%

TPA

CR9: 3
M88: 3
M90: 2
319: 3
320: 5
321: 1
712: 4
738: 3
739: 7
752: 4

Total Flights = 35
Mainline = 91.4%

LAS
E175: 18
B717: 4
MD90: 1
A320: 1
B738: 7
B739: 17
B757: 4
A321: 6

Total Flights =58
Mainline =69.0%

Didn't realize how big LAS was

MSPNWA wrote:

FSDan wrote:

I don't live in a major hub metro. I don't have a strong bias for or against any one airport. I don't work for an airline. What motivation do you think I would have for "grasping for straws to find a positive spin"? I'm calling it like I see it, and what I see is that DL's MSP hub has significantly more mainline service and significantly fewer flights on 50-seaters than it did a few years ago.

S12 - DL @ MSP is 41.3% mainline, with 156 departures on 50-seaters
S13 - DL @ MSP is 40.4% mainline, with 158 departures on 50-seaters
S14 - DL @ MSP is 46.2% mainline, with 137 departures on 50-seaters
...
S18 - DL @ MSP is 54.6% mainline, with 90 departures on 50 seaters

I guess the overall trend of upgauging stuck out to me more than the very small increase in CRJ departures (which you could explain away the same way you did for JFK if you wanted to - there were 5 ER4 departures from MSP in 2014 that have become 4 CRJ departures).

Good question! So why do you have that propensity? What's your point for it?

I guess you could say I see the glass half full when it comes to aviation. I like the fact that pretty much all major airlines have been moving away from 50-seaters and towards mainline over the past several years, and I'm not going to focus on an arguably inconsequential increase in CRJ departures at MSP over seeing the bigger picture of growth and upgauging throughout the network.

MSPNWA wrote:

I'm calling it based on the facts, not just how I see it. The facts say it's not even a question that MSP has been a relative loser in DL's up-gauging strategy and overall expansion. You continue to avoid that core point. It doesn't mean anything on its own that MSP has seen mainline increases and 50-seat decreases. Essentially every DL station has seen that. What matters is the degree of change in the type and overall capacity. There is where MSP is losing out.

It's absolutely fair to say that other hubs have been growing faster than MSP. I never stated anything to the contrary. I just thought it was odd that your overall takeaway from this data was "Just another small jab at the customers that consistently provide some of DL's highest margins". My takeaway was something like "Every DL hub has more mainline and more large RJ service than it did 4 years ago. Cool!".

MSPNWA wrote:

Their overall mainline % isn't particularly high. It's rate of mainline % increase isn't on the high side, even with a low base.

Let's look at the mainline % for other similarly-sized hubs (between ~400 and ~500 departures):

AA at PHL - 44.0%
UA at EWR - 54.4%
DL at MSP - 54.6%
DL at DTW - 43.3%
UA at DEN - 43.8%
UA at IAH - 49.5%
AA at ORD - 40.9%

Seems to me that MSP fares better than average for a hub of its size.

MSPNWA wrote:

It's lost its Embraers in favor of CR7/9s, which are in general inferior for all passengers, leaving it only one of two stations to see a CRJ increase in the past four years (It's up 4 without the E145s counted, not with, so 4 is conservative).

I'd say MSP lost its Embraers in favor of mainline, and lost CR2s and ER4s in favor of CR7s and CR9s. Maybe I'm being too "glass half full" here, but I'd say the data backs me up:

2014

ER4: 5
CR2: 132
Subtotal = 137

CR7: 11
CR9: 56
Subtotal = 67

E70: 16
E75: 26
Subtotal = 42

Mainline: 211


2018

CR2: 90
Subtotal = 90

CR7: 38
CR9: 75
Subtotal = 113

Mainline: 244


The decrease in 50-seaters from 2014 to 2018 corresponds almost identically to the increase in CR7/CR9 departures. The decrease in E-Jet departures is slightly larger than the increase in mainline departures, but the seats accounted for by 42 E-Jets are still significantly less than the seats accounted for by 33 additional mainline aircraft any way you cut it.

MSPNWA wrote:

And to top it off, it's also one of the slowest growing hubs, even with its top margins. So there, those are the facts taken right from your tallies.

And I'm guessing MSP wouldn't have top margins anymore if the growth rate sped up needlessly beyond what the market would support... DL seems to think they have MSP at roughly the right size, but at the end of the day they've been growing seat capacity and upgauging aircraft at MSP over the past several years, and I see that as a positive.

MartijnNL wrote:

FSDan wrote:

ATL

M88: 293

Total = 1057

Good to see that the M88 does most of the flying at Hartsfield. Counting arrivals and departures that's almost six hundred flights per day. Amazing!

Add to that the one hundred daily M90 flights and it's clear that Atlanta is a T-tail spotter's heaven.

The concentration of MD-80 flights at STL is amazing.

Lightsaber

FSDan wrote:

MSPNWA wrote:

FSDan wrote:

I don't live in a major hub metro. I don't have a strong bias for or against any one airport. I don't work for an airline. What motivation do you think I would have for "grasping for straws to find a positive spin"? I'm calling it like I see it, and what I see is that DL's MSP hub has significantly more mainline service and significantly fewer flights on 50-seaters than it did a few years ago.

S12 - DL @ MSP is 41.3% mainline, with 156 departures on 50-seaters
S13 - DL @ MSP is 40.4% mainline, with 158 departures on 50-seaters
S14 - DL @ MSP is 46.2% mainline, with 137 departures on 50-seaters
...
S18 - DL @ MSP is 54.6% mainline, with 90 departures on 50 seaters

I guess the overall trend of upgauging stuck out to me more than the very small increase in CRJ departures (which you could explain away the same way you did for JFK if you wanted to - there were 5 ER4 departures from MSP in 2014 that have become 4 CRJ departures).

Good question! So why do you have that propensity? What's your point for it?

I guess you could say I see the glass half full when it comes to aviation. I like the fact that pretty much all major airlines have been moving away from 50-seaters and towards mainline over the past several years, and I'm not going to focus on an arguably inconsequential increase in CRJ departures at MSP over seeing the bigger picture of growth and upgauging throughout the network.

MSPNWA wrote:

I'm calling it based on the facts, not just how I see it. The facts say it's not even a question that MSP has been a relative loser in DL's up-gauging strategy and overall expansion. You continue to avoid that core point. It doesn't mean anything on its own that MSP has seen mainline increases and 50-seat decreases. Essentially every DL station has seen that. What matters is the degree of change in the type and overall capacity. There is where MSP is losing out.

It's absolutely fair to say that other hubs have been growing faster than MSP. I never stated anything to the contrary. I just thought it was odd that your overall takeaway from this data was "Just another small jab at the customers that consistently provide some of DL's highest margins". My takeaway was something like "Every DL hub has more mainline and more large RJ service than it did 4 years ago. Cool!".

MSPNWA wrote:

Their overall mainline % isn't particularly high. It's rate of mainline % increase isn't on the high side, even with a low base.

Let's look at the mainline % for other similarly-sized hubs (between ~400 and ~500 departures):

AA at PHL - 44.0%
UA at EWR - 54.4%
DL at MSP - 54.6%
DL at DTW - 43.3%
UA at DEN - 43.8%
UA at IAH - 49.5%
AA at ORD - 40.9%

Seems to me that MSP fares better than average for a hub of its size.

MSPNWA wrote:

It's lost its Embraers in favor of CR7/9s, which are in general inferior for all passengers, leaving it only one of two stations to see a CRJ increase in the past four years (It's up 4 without the E145s counted, not with, so 4 is conservative).

I'd say MSP lost its Embraers in favor of mainline, and lost CR2s and ER4s in favor of CR7s and CR9s. Maybe I'm being too "glass half full" here, but I'd say the data backs me up:

2014

ER4: 5
CR2: 132
Subtotal = 137

CR7: 11
CR9: 56
Subtotal = 67

E70: 16
E75: 26
Subtotal = 42

Mainline: 211


2018

CR2: 90
Subtotal = 90

CR7: 38
CR9: 75
Subtotal = 113

Mainline: 244


The decrease in 50-seaters from 2014 to 2018 corresponds almost identically to the increase in CR7/CR9 departures. The decrease in E-Jet departures is slightly larger than the increase in mainline departures, but the seats accounted for by 42 E-Jets are still significantly less than the seats accounted for by 33 additional mainline aircraft any way you cut it.

MSPNWA wrote:

And to top it off, it's also one of the slowest growing hubs, even with its top margins. So there, those are the facts taken right from your tallies.

And I'm guessing MSP wouldn't have top margins anymore if the growth rate sped up needlessly beyond what the market would support... DL seems to think they have MSP at roughly the right size, but at the end of the day they've been growing seat capacity and upgauging aircraft at MSP over the past several years, and I see that as a positive.

Reporting in from MSP, where I am in FSDan's camp — and not just based on the data. Six years ago when my business flying started kicking up, I'd see the occasional Embraer on MSP-BOS, MSP-NYC, MSP-DCA, where most of my travel takes me. Now, it's all mainline. I occasionally have to fly to smaller stations, and I haven't sniffed an actual CRJ in two years — and that was one-way to OKC. MSP-OKC is all CR7s now. I rode a CR7 to Dulles earlier this year, but that's it. Things have been good at MSP over the past year or two — not as good as SEA or NYC, but at least as good as DTW and SLC. My glass is probably over half full.

jrkmsp wrote:

FSDan wrote:

MSPNWA wrote:

Good question! So why do you have that propensity? What's your point for it?

I guess you could say I see the glass half full when it comes to aviation. I like the fact that pretty much all major airlines have been moving away from 50-seaters and towards mainline over the past several years, and I'm not going to focus on an arguably inconsequential increase in CRJ departures at MSP over seeing the bigger picture of growth and upgauging throughout the network.

MSPNWA wrote:

I'm calling it based on the facts, not just how I see it. The facts say it's not even a question that MSP has been a relative loser in DL's up-gauging strategy and overall expansion. You continue to avoid that core point. It doesn't mean anything on its own that MSP has seen mainline increases and 50-seat decreases. Essentially every DL station has seen that. What matters is the degree of change in the type and overall capacity. There is where MSP is losing out.

It's absolutely fair to say that other hubs have been growing faster than MSP. I never stated anything to the contrary. I just thought it was odd that your overall takeaway from this data was "Just another small jab at the customers that consistently provide some of DL's highest margins". My takeaway was something like "Every DL hub has more mainline and more large RJ service than it did 4 years ago. Cool!".

MSPNWA wrote:

Their overall mainline % isn't particularly high. It's rate of mainline % increase isn't on the high side, even with a low base.

Let's look at the mainline % for other similarly-sized hubs (between ~400 and ~500 departures):

AA at PHL - 44.0%
UA at EWR - 54.4%
DL at MSP - 54.6%
DL at DTW - 43.3%
UA at DEN - 43.8%
UA at IAH - 49.5%
AA at ORD - 40.9%

Seems to me that MSP fares better than average for a hub of its size.

MSPNWA wrote:

It's lost its Embraers in favor of CR7/9s, which are in general inferior for all passengers, leaving it only one of two stations to see a CRJ increase in the past four years (It's up 4 without the E145s counted, not with, so 4 is conservative).

I'd say MSP lost its Embraers in favor of mainline, and lost CR2s and ER4s in favor of CR7s and CR9s. Maybe I'm being too "glass half full" here, but I'd say the data backs me up:

2014

ER4: 5
CR2: 132
Subtotal = 137

CR7: 11
CR9: 56
Subtotal = 67

E70: 16
E75: 26
Subtotal = 42

Mainline: 211


2018

CR2: 90
Subtotal = 90

CR7: 38
CR9: 75
Subtotal = 113

Mainline: 244


The decrease in 50-seaters from 2014 to 2018 corresponds almost identically to the increase in CR7/CR9 departures. The decrease in E-Jet departures is slightly larger than the increase in mainline departures, but the seats accounted for by 42 E-Jets are still significantly less than the seats accounted for by 33 additional mainline aircraft any way you cut it.

MSPNWA wrote:

And to top it off, it's also one of the slowest growing hubs, even with its top margins. So there, those are the facts taken right from your tallies.

And I'm guessing MSP wouldn't have top margins anymore if the growth rate sped up needlessly beyond what the market would support... DL seems to think they have MSP at roughly the right size, but at the end of the day they've been growing seat capacity and upgauging aircraft at MSP over the past several years, and I see that as a positive.

Reporting in from MSP, where I am in FSDan's camp — and not just based on the data. Six years ago when my business flying started kicking up, I'd see the occasional Embraer on MSP-BOS, MSP-NYC, MSP-DCA, where most of my travel takes me. Now, it's all mainline. I occasionally have to fly to smaller stations, and I haven't sniffed an actual CRJ in two years — and that was one-way to OKC. MSP-OKC is all CR7s now. I rode a CR7 to Dulles earlier this year, but that's it. Things have been good at MSP over the past year or two — not as good as SEA or NYC, but at least as good as DTW and SLC. My glass is probably over half full.

Also weighing in from MSP. I would also be in the glass half full camp. In addition to some growth in DL mainline, the overall market has so many more choices than in the peak of the NW hub days. Back then, when I flew to LAX, SFO, BOS, LGA, DCA, etc., there was zero competition other than a few ill-timed Sun Country flights. Now, you have competition in every one of these markets, plus an growing WN presence. Fares are still very high in the Midwest, and we do subsidize the entire operation and provide the financial cushion to grow SEA, LAX, etc. And we do so with fewer amenities. Terminal 1 is great, but the Skyclubs are among the least impressive in the system despite how much we pay. But overall I think MSP is far more sustainable than it was a decade ago.

Thu 6/28/18:

DFW
319: 11
320: 8
717: 9
738: 1
CR7: 2
CR9: 5
E70: 5
E75: 5

Total: 46
Mainline: 63.0%

ORD
319: 6
M88: 7
M90: 4
717: 17
738: 2
CRJ: 3
CR7: 1
CR9: 5
E70: 2
E7W: 7
E75: 2

Total: 56
Mainline: 64.3%

How does AUS look? Is there any non-hub flying planned?

Overthecascades wrote:

How does AUS look? Is there any non-hub flying planned?

I believe it's listed previously in one of these threads, but AUS has service to 10 DL hubs and focus cities, but nothing outside of that. Otherwise, not sure what their plans are.

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Overthecascades wrote:

How does AUS look? Is there any non-hub flying planned?

I believe it's listed previously in one of these threads, but AUS has service to 10 DL hubs and focus cities, but nothing outside of that. Otherwise, not sure what their plans are.

Check what I posted in #59

Great thread - thanks!

on the topic of trans-cons on 1-off equipment - does the LAX-DCA-LAX int'l B752 serve other destinations ex-LAX. I assume it turns at DCA with an arrival at 16:37 and a departure at 17:35 - but after arrival at LAX does it operate any other rotations or does it sit for 12hrs (arrives 20:21) until the next departure to DCA 08:30)

I used to have the time to trawl the timetables and figure it out - but 2 children under 2 years old make old hobbies tough to devote time to...

LHRBFSTrident wrote:

Great thread - thanks!

on the topic of trans-cons on 1-off equipment - does the LAX-DCA-LAX int'l B752 serve other destinations ex-LAX. I assume it turns at DCA with an arrival at 16:37 and a departure at 17:35 - but after arrival at LAX does it operate any other rotations or does it sit for 12hrs (arrives 20:21) until the next departure to DCA 08:30)

I used to have the time to trawl the timetables and figure it out - but 2 children under 2 years old make old hobbies tough to devote time to...

Since there are Delta Premium Transcon service on 757-200S from JFK & BOS the plane usually rotates between the three take a look at the flightaware for N718TW which did the rotation today. It does JFK-LAX BOS-LAX JFK-SEA and DCA-LAX

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N718TW

gsg013 wrote:

LHRBFSTrident wrote:

Great thread - thanks!

on the topic of trans-cons on 1-off equipment - does the LAX-DCA-LAX int'l B752 serve other destinations ex-LAX. I assume it turns at DCA with an arrival at 16:37 and a departure at 17:35 - but after arrival at LAX does it operate any other rotations or does it sit for 12hrs (arrives 20:21) until the next departure to DCA 08:30)

I used to have the time to trawl the timetables and figure it out - but 2 children under 2 years old make old hobbies tough to devote time to...

Since there are Delta Premium Transcon service on 757-200S from JFK & BOS the plane usually rotates between the three take a look at the flightaware for N718TW which did the rotation today. It does JFK-LAX BOS-LAX JFK-SEA and DCA-LAX

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N718TW

I was curious about the pricing of the lie-flat seat in First vs. standard recliner. Turns out out of SEA the pricing is the same between the two seating types. Does anyone know why this is the case since lie-flat should be more appealing. thx

PIT (from 7/9)
CR7: 1
CR9: 12
E70: 1
E7W: 2
E75: 2
319: 1
M88: 7
M90: 4
739: 2
763: 1

Still getting a lot of Mad Dogs and CRJ9s, but more YX and OO E175 ops have shown up and the B739 seems to be taking over the ATL flights that tend to have higher capacity.

Overthecascades wrote:

winginit wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Guys....can we agree to disagree and keep those focused on a discussion about the DL network, DL fleet, DL hubs, and year over year changes.

CAN WE STOP TURNING THIS INTO A BICKER-FEST ABOUT DTW or the rantings for or against a particular poster who derails these threads.
Keep it contained to the cesspool of the DTW Air Service 2018 #45,943 thread.

Some of us are trying to bring some interesting analysis, discussion, commentary to bear and also educate ourselves about what is going on around the DL network (and the other airline threads)

Thanks FSDan, this is as always, good stuff.

Righto then. For your viewing and discussing pleasure, a YoY DL capacity view comparing YE2017 to YE2018 measured by ASMs by hub:

ATL: +3.3%
CVG: +9.7%
DTW: +2.6%
JFK: +2.7%
LAX: +6.3%
MSP: +1.4%
SEA: +10.3%

A bit surprised to see double digit growth at SEA. I thought the gates and IAF were hindering DL growth there??

CR7 and CR9 are gone from SEA with E75, 717 and 738 replacing all CRJs from there.

LAS used to be E75, then 717, now all 738
LAX was E75, then 717/738 now all 738
PDX was CR7, now E75
SFO was E75, now 717/738
Phx was CR7/9, then CR9, now E75 and 717.

Most of that 10.3% increase is from upgauging, while the rest is from a couple of new routes like MCI.

Overthecascades wrote:

gsg013 wrote:

LHRBFSTrident wrote:

Great thread - thanks!

on the topic of trans-cons on 1-off equipment - does the LAX-DCA-LAX int'l B752 serve other destinations ex-LAX. I assume it turns at DCA with an arrival at 16:37 and a departure at 17:35 - but after arrival at LAX does it operate any other rotations or does it sit for 12hrs (arrives 20:21) until the next departure to DCA 08:30)

I used to have the time to trawl the timetables and figure it out - but 2 children under 2 years old make old hobbies tough to devote time to...

Since there are Delta Premium Transcon service on 757-200S from JFK & BOS the plane usually rotates between the three take a look at the flightaware for N718TW which did the rotation today. It does JFK-LAX BOS-LAX JFK-SEA and DCA-LAX

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N718TW

I was curious about the pricing of the lie-flat seat in First vs. standard recliner. Turns out out of SEA the pricing is the same between the two seating types. Does anyone know why this is the case since lie-flat should be more appealing. thx

It most certainly is not the same price between lie-flat and domestic first SEA-JFK. Lie-flat service is nearly double the price, except the redeye, which is $300 more than domestic first class one way.

nomorerjs wrote:

Thu 6/28/18:


ORD
M88: 7
M90: 4
717: 17

Mainline: 64.3%

Who could have ever guessed that DL MD T-tails would dominate AA at ORD. Even when AA still has multiple non-DFW S80 routes out of ORD. A sign of the times.

Sancho99504 wrote:

Overthecascades wrote:

gsg013 wrote:

Since there are Delta Premium Transcon service on 757-200S from JFK & BOS the plane usually rotates between the three take a look at the flightaware for N718TW which did the rotation today. It does JFK-LAX BOS-LAX JFK-SEA and DCA-LAX

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N718TW

I was curious about the pricing of the lie-flat seat in First vs. standard recliner. Turns out out of SEA the pricing is the same between the two seating types. Does anyone know why this is the case since lie-flat should be more appealing. thx

It most certainly is not the same price between lie-flat and domestic first SEA-JFK. Lie-flat service is nearly double the price, except the redeye, which is $300 more than domestic first class one way.

Not true. It all depends on the day and the demand for that time.

For example
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=JFK. ... 1;t:f;tt:o
on this day, 5 flights, 3 flights have J at $559, one of which is lie flat. There is another lie flat at 854 and regular F at $914.

next day
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=JFK. ... 1;t:f;tt:o
4 flights have J at $559, one of which is lie flat and remaining one at 854. It might be due more to the optimal time than anything else.