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keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 11243
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:04 am

.
While 777X development seems to be progressing well,

777 deliveries have fallen below 4/month in the first 5 months of 2018.

Not sure what the scheduled deliveries will be in 2019 and 2020.

Unfilled orders are
77W : 57
777F: 35
77X : 326

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries

Image
One of United newest 777s, n2747u
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 7918
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:27 am

Ok.

Love that action pic. 77W is not my favorite plane but some shots look great.
-Dave
 
Newbiepilot
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Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:03 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Ok.

Love that action pic. 77W is not my favorite plane but some shots look great.


I also like the photo. Interesting angle and the plane is so shiny and clean.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 691
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:14 am

In a previous thread quite a few members were saying the 777X production rate will be only 3.5 a month.

So with the current order book we will see nearly 10 years of backlog at that low rate. These members also expect only a handful of new 777X orders in that 10 year period and the production rate will then remain low.

Apparently to these members the 777X is a bit of a dud even though it hasnt flown yet.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 777X production rate will be atleast 5 aircraft per month during 2021. The 777 averaged about 80 orders per year. I expect the 777x to average about half that which should easily sustain 5 per month for a decade.
 
kevin5345179
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:08 am

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:31 am

RJMAZ wrote:
In a previous thread quite a few members were saying the 777X production rate will be only 3.5 a month.

So with the current order book we will see nearly 10 years of backlog at that low rate. These members also expect only a handful of new 777X orders in that 10 year period and the production rate will then remain low.

Apparently to these members the 777X is a bit of a dud even though it hasnt flown yet.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 777X production rate will be atleast 5 aircraft per month during 2021. The 777 averaged about 80 orders per year. I expect the 777x to average about half that which should easily sustain 5 per month for a decade.


80 per year ? unlikely ...
so far 5 years only yield 326 and 259 orders happened on the same year so on avg ~16 planes per year in last 4 years ......
 
grbauc
Posts: 987
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:35 am

RJMAZ wrote:
In a previous thread quite a few members were saying the 777X production rate will be only 3.5 a month.

So with the current order book we will see nearly 10 years of backlog at that low rate. These members also expect only a handful of new 777X orders in that 10 year period and the production rate will then remain low.

Apparently to these members the 777X is a bit of a dud even though it hasnt flown yet.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 777X production rate will be atleast 5 aircraft per month during 2021. The 777 averaged about 80 orders per year. I expect the 777x to average about half that which should easily sustain 5 per month for a decade.


I hundred percent agree with your assessment think you’re right on point.
 
2175301
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Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:51 am

grbauc wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
In a previous thread quite a few members were saying the 777X production rate will be only 3.5 a month.

So with the current order book we will see nearly 10 years of backlog at that low rate. These members also expect only a handful of new 777X orders in that 10 year period and the production rate will then remain low.

Apparently to these members the 777X is a bit of a dud even though it hasnt flown yet.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 777X production rate will be atleast 5 aircraft per month during 2021. The 777 averaged about 80 orders per year. I expect the 777x to average about half that which should easily sustain 5 per month for a decade.


I hundred percent agree with your assessment think you’re right on point.


Totally agree. Once the 777X aircraft are in service and deliveries started it will see more orders. This is typical of almost all aircraft developed in the last 15 years. Initial orders with project launch and into the next year or so; then almost no orders until after the aircraft flies, when orders start to pick up.

I am sure that lots of 777-8 and 777-9 aircraft will be ordered and built. One of the models is likely to dominate... although I am not going to speculate which one.

Have a great day,
 
jfk777
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:06 pm

2175301 wrote:
grbauc wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
In a previous thread quite a few members were saying the 777X production rate will be only 3.5 a month.

So with the current order book we will see nearly 10 years of backlog at that low rate. These members also expect only a handful of new 777X orders in that 10 year period and the production rate will then remain low.

Apparently to these members the 777X is a bit of a dud even though it hasnt flown yet.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 777X production rate will be atleast 5 aircraft per month during 2021. The 777 averaged about 80 orders per year. I expect the 777x to average about half that which should easily sustain 5 per month for a decade.


I hundred percent agree with your assessment think you’re right on point.


Totally agree. Once the 777X aircraft are in service and deliveries started it will see more orders. This is typical of almost all aircraft developed in the last 15 years. Initial orders with project launch and into the next year or so; then almost no orders until after the aircraft flies, when orders start to pick up.

I am sure that lots of 777-8 and 777-9 aircraft will be ordered and built. One of the models is likely to dominate... although I am not going to speculate which one.

Have a great day,


The 777-9 is clearly expected to sale many more since its the 77W replacement. The 777-8 is more of a 777=200LR replacement. What will be interesting is how many A380 are replaced by 777-9, some current A380 operators want to go the twin route. Qantas is one where the A380 will be their last four engine airplane. Marginal A380 operators like Malaysia, Thai and Asiana will ditch their A380 eventually replacing them with twins. If fuel prices rise too much Arizona could become the world's A380 museum.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1540
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:29 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
In a previous thread quite a few members were saying the 777X production rate will be only 3.5 a month.

So with the current order book we will see nearly 10 years of backlog at that low rate. These members also expect only a handful of new 777X orders in that 10 year period and the production rate will then remain low.

Apparently to these members the 777X is a bit of a dud even though it hasnt flown yet.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that 777X production rate will be atleast 5 aircraft per month during 2021. The 777 averaged about 80 orders per year. I expect the 777x to average about half that which should easily sustain 5 per month for a decade.


The line needs to be profitable on a per plane basis at 3 though I think your 5 is much more ideal if you can get there. The 777 line is now pretty heavily automated and getting more so as the 77X comes online. As an investor I would be pretty happy if they can sustain 4 per month for a decade. That would see them deliver 500 aircraft over 10 years. I get that it does stretch out the backlog but I am guessing most airlines on the list don’t want them all delivered in a short time frame.

I think the following supports 36 a year this way.

10-year plan
EK: 15
Qatar: 6

5-year plan
Lufthansa: 4
Cathay: 4
ANA: 4
Singapore: 4

The only way I get to 50 a year is if EK wants everything in 5 years and takes on 30 a year which I don’t think they will. Going to 5 means more orders in my view. Preferably ones that want all their aircraft in relatively short order.

In my view going to 4 per month means getting 3 more orders for around 20 aircraft a piece. If you want to go to 5 I think you need to double that.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:52 pm

You have to keep in mind that there will be a transition period when both the 777NG and the 777X will role of the production line. This gives Boeing some flexibility to built some more NGs in the 1st years of production of the X if this is needed. The recent fairly good sales numbers of the NG have given Boeing a bit more time to secure some more X orders. But at the end of the day they will need to book more X orders to keep it going at the rates that are needed to keep the model competitive against the competition in the market. They need to actually book some of the recently rumored orders. If they do it might also be a trigger for some leasing companies to start to order, the lack of leasing orders might now be 1 of the reasons for some airlines to pass on the X for now.
 
iamlucky13
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Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Order book and production rates for the 777 and 777x during and after the transition

Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:57 pm

It's pretty often discussed that there is a lot of widebody capacity in the market right now, and the biggest customers are experiencing difficulty maintaining their prior growth trends. That the 777 delivery demand actually hit 8.3/month in the past is pretty incredible and arguably helped over-saturate the market.

It's not a great time in terms of market demand to be bringing a new plane into service, but it's going to get better as existing 777's start reaching retirement in significant numbers and expected market growth continues.

Expecting the 777X to remain to never exceed 3.5/month is an extraordinary forecast (not easily reconcilable with Boeing's, Airbus's, nor the IATA's forecasts) that merits fairly comprehensive and compelling argument to give much credibility to.

kevin5345179 wrote:
so far 5 years only yield 326 and 259 orders happened on the same year so on avg ~16 planes per year in last 4 years ......


Similar to the A350 then.

Airline industry cycles usually last longer than 4 years. Weighing in on a decade long forecast by simply referencing demand in the current widebody ordering trough is not even remotely comprehensive, nor compelling.

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