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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:52 pm

The Bangkok stop, could NokScoot still be interested in the A330neo or have they settled to go for more used 777s. And of course Thai Aiways could order some to add to their collection of models. You can only say a particular aircraft model is not a success when it becomes clear that Thai won't be ordering any.
 
junlinwong94
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:30 pm

I guess Airbus are still trying their best to win over Malaysia Airlines for some A330neo orders
 
juliuswong
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:24 am

Devilfish wrote:
Hmmn...the proving flights will include MNL.....I wonder why? :scratchchin:

Image
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Df-XrhOW0AEJKxQ.jpg

Image

Bangkok and Hong Kong too, as a matter of fact. None of airlines based in Thailand or Hong Kong placed an order for A330neo.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
juliuswong
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:58 am

Momo1435 wrote:
The Bangkok stop, could NokScoot still be interested in the A330neo or have they settled to go for more used 777s. And of course Thai Aiways could order some to add to their collection of models. You can only say a particular aircraft model is not a success when it becomes clear that Thai won't be ordering any.

With the rumoured Vistara's 787 order, NokScoot will most probably ended up with new 787-8/9 if they are getting new toy, allowing cost saving and synergies between the many subsidiaries within SQ Group.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
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NeBaNi
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:35 am

junlinwong94 wrote:
I guess Airbus are still trying their best to win over Malaysia Airlines for some A330neo orders

Or it could be because of the massive Air Asia X order. Airbus needs to do route proving flights for AAX, so I'm not reading too much into the BKK/ MNL stops. To me, they just look like logical places that AAX would operate the neo to, at least initially.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:37 am

ist2014 wrote:
Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator

Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:57 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ist2014 wrote:
Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator

Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?


->Airline operators->Sort by total
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A330_operators
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:06 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ist2014 wrote:
Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator

Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?


It depends how you count. If you count all versions including freighters, TK is the biggest operator with 62. If you count only pax frames, it is Air China with 59.
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:42 am

Nothing to SYD, thats kind of disappointing
 
juliuswong
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:15 am

NZ321 wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:

Could it be SriLankan Airlines, they might be interested in the neo after their failed A350 adventure to replace their oldest A332s. And they still have some A350s on order that they can convert.

UL is not in any financial position to lease or buy new aircraft. Their A333ceo is very new and they got badly burnt by A350 fiasco. Their A333ceo can do most, if not all their current long haul (whatever still remains). Don't need the range of A330neos.


But UL's 332s are now pushing 18 years of age, average unlike the new A333. Something pending me thinks but not picking UL is the carrier referred to above.

What you have said is true, however we are not sure if UL needs the A330neo's extra range since their furthest destination now is LHR which is easily reachable with their A330ceo.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:57 am

AsiaTravel wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
ist2014 wrote:
Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator

Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?


->Airline operators->Sort by total
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A330_operators


That list is slightly aged.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:19 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?


->Airline operators->Sort by total
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A330_operators


That list is slightly aged.

But it hasn't changed too much since September 2017 when that list was made, no big movements in the top.

Here's the top 25 taken from the most recent Airbus O&D spreadsheet.

    TURKISH AIRLINES 65
    AIR CHINA 59
    CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES 55
    CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES 48
    Governments; Executive and private Jets 47
    DELTA AIR LINES 42
    UNDISCLOSED 36
    CATHAY PACIFIC 34
    QATAR AIRWAYS 32
    SAUDIA 32
    AIRASIA X 31
    ETIHAD AIRWAYS 29
    KOREAN AIR 29
    QANTAS AIRWAYS 28
    HAINAN AIRLINES 26
    AMERICAN AIRLINES 24
    CATHAY DRAGON 24
    CHINA AIRLINES 24
    GARUDA INDONESIA 24
    HAWAIIAN AIRLINES 24
    MALAYSIA AIRLINES 24
    AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES 22
    HONG KONG AIRLINES 22
    IBERIA 22
    SINGAPORE AIRLINES 21

Only 3 of the airlines in this list have confirmed A330neo orders, most have 787 and/or A350 on order.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:26 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
ist2014 wrote:
Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator

Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?


It depends how you count. If you count all versions including freighters, TK is the biggest operator with 62. If you count only pax frames, it is Air China with 59.

Doesn't TK still have 4 active A343 too? This means more aircraft to replace.

I believe an increased MTOW A338F would be perfect for TK. But that would be growth, replacement is decades away.

TK has 25 A350 and 25 789 on order (per Wikipedia, something is nagging telling me the ratio shifted?). So while that is probably growth, with the new IST, I expect the replacement strategy to be more A321 or (judging by TK's large MAX orders) the MAX for half the A330s. The 787-10 and A359 for the other half.

Lightsaber
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:30 pm

Sri Lamkan for 4 by conversion of A350 orders?

Unless they take end-of-line ceos.

http://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/ ... 350-orders
 
Cedric13
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:47 pm

Mea just ordered 4
 
jbs2886
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:31 pm

Cedric13 wrote:
Mea just ordered 4


Source?
 
LewisNEO
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:58 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... eo-452983/

According to flight global it's derived from the annual financial statement
You are the wind beneath my wings.

Fokker 27, Bombardier Dash 8, Embraer 175 & 195, 727-200, 737-200 & -300 & -400 & -800, 747-400, 767-300, 767-400, DC 10-30, A320-200, A330-200, A330-300, A380.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:34 pm

NeBaNi wrote:
Airbus needs to do route proving flights for AAX, so I'm not reading too much into the BKK/ MNL stops. To me, they just look like logical places that AAX would operate the neo to, at least initially.

Why not?.....A321s (ceo or neo) are likely the biggest AAX would need for MNL. PR's current regional fleet is a good fit. OTOH, PAL could sure use the neo (but A338 instead) for new thin routes in the Near East/Continental Europe and the U.S. West Coast...(given actual range/payload are met)..... :airplane: .....

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=CEB-HNL/LA ... /YVR&DU=nm


It's true that PR has six options for A359s...but why use a hammer to crack a nut :?: A338s are perfect replacements for their withdrawn A343s and could be had when leases for their A330s expire or as the latter come due for heavy checks.

Image
https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/get ... emid=75126


With KU's recent order for eight and the tentative pair for Uganda, they'd hardly be all by their lonesome...(at the right price)..... :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: :dollarsign: ..... :optimist:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
ist2014
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:26 pm

I think TK should not go for 330neo
Leased 13 332s will be replaced by 787/359 order and when it is due 333s will be replaced by 787/359/77x and 351
There is no need to have an other type at fleet however 33f s will be for 2 more decaded
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:38 pm

Looking through the current list of A330 operators, the majority fall into one of three categories:

1) Has a newer A330 fleet that doesn't need short-term replacement
2) Has A330neo or 787 orders already
3) Is small and likely to pick up A330neo frames from lessors

The big exception to this pickle is the major Chinese carriers. If I were Airbus sales trying to shore up A330neo production, I'd be on the phone with China Aviation Supplies every day.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:20 pm

seabosdca wrote:
1) Has a newer A330 fleet that doesn't need short-term replacement

3) Is small and likely to pick up A330neo frames from lessors

Small is beautiful. :airplane: Numbers 1 and 3 describe many airlines. They are not likely to place substantial orders but a trickle could add up to a respectable total over time. As Airbus' chief salesman says in this Flightglobal report.....

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... es-453383/

Quote:
"'There were people in the industry who said the A330-800 wouldn’t be built, and then they said it would never fly. So today’s event proves that’s nonsense,' said Airbus’s A330 marketing chief Crawford Hamilton at the first flight event today in Toulouse.

'Boeing has been at us with a sledge-hammer for the last 2-3 years, undoubtedly. But there’s no point in being a victim,' he says. 'We’re ready to bat the ball right down Boeing’s throat and come out fighting against the 787. That’s what the A330neo’s all about.'

He says that as a derivative design, the development of the A330neo was relatively low-cost allowing Airbus some commercial 'wiggle room' when competing against the all-new 787.

'The public figure [for industrial investment in the A330neo] was $2 billion. We’ve got an aircraft that’s better than the 787 which cost perhaps $50 billion [to develop]. So that means we’ve got a real value product that we can offer.'

'Lastly there are new markets like long haul low cost and nations that need a new entry-level aircraft.'"



Brave fighting words. It seems like Airbus have gotten themselves a worthy successor to JL.....remains to be seen if marketing spin would translate to sales. :spin:
Last edited by Devilfish on Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:28 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Small is beautiful. :airplane: Numbers 1 and 3 describe many airlines. They are not likely to place substantial orders but a trickle could add up to a respectable total over time.


The challenge is that Airbus is competing for those orders against lessors, who have over-ordered the A330neo and are in a bit of a jam. Many small airlines (including those from emerging nations where financing a purchase may be a challenge) end up leasing their aircraft. I'm positive all of those lessor aircraft will get placed, but I think it's likely to be at the expense of further sales by Airbus.

The quote you posted is intriguing and shows that Airbus still wants to make the same case for the A330neo that it was making before Boeing dropped 787-9 prices. We will see if Airbus really is able to undercut Boeing despite the lower production rate on the A330 line.
 
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Polot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:30 pm

The problem with small airlines is that they are usually picking up what is cheapest...which is typically determined by what the big boys are choosing. It is a hard market to rely on long term for a new aircraft.

If big boys are not picking A330neos then lessors will stop buying them for speculative purposes (favoring the 787, A350, or whatever instead) and it will be the 787, A350, or whatever that is cheap to lease or finance and not the A330neo. This when it comes time to replace their fleet, or if a new airline is starting long haul ops, they are more likely to choose the 787, A350, or whatever over the A330neo, and it becomes a viscous cycle.

Crawford Hamilton is not Airbus’s new sales chief btw. He has been with the company for almost 24 years and has been a part of marketing the A330/A340 family since 2007.
 
Concorde2fly
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:40 pm

Looks like Corsair International has ordered 3 a330 900 neos to replace their 747 fleet. I wonder if they are leased.

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fi ... 93284.html
 
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Polot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:44 pm

Concorde2fly wrote:
Looks like Corsair International has ordered 3 a330 900 neos to replace their 747 fleet. I wonder if they are leased.

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-fi ... 93284.html

It sounds like from the google translate they are unsure yet if they will lease the planes or buy direct.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:06 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ist2014 wrote:
Given the fact that TK is the biggest A330 operator

Are they? I thought they were second behind CX/KA?

Do you have the comparative numbers?


TK has 65 A330, 18 -200, 10 F, 37 -300
CX has 34, KA 24 together 58

TK has more A330 and CX + KA have more passenger A330. Air China has 59 passenger A330.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:22 pm

The biggest competitor to the A330neo is the A330ceo, lots and lots of frames in the market. A 10 to 12 year old coming off lease is far less to either lease or purchase.
 
AAMDanny
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:31 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
I'd keep an eye on the Thomas Cook Group. There was a thread on here quite recently that they are looking at long-haul aircraft to replace Condor's fleet of 767's, however other airlines within the Group (TC UK and Scandinavia) both use A330's and UK have been slowly expanding long-haul in recent years using second-hand aircraft and leasing from Air Tanker, particularly out of MAN to the US. They have also been shuffling aircraft across the Group, so there's an opportunity here to standardise on one widebody type for the entire group. The A330neo has to have a shout here given the ceo's already in use and A320/A321's elsewhere, so there's potential for a decent sized order at a good price if they decide to place one order for the whole Group, but stranger things have happened.

Link to recent thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1395177

Another potential order in the coming years could come from VS. They have 10 A330-300's, however the challenge is that VS already have a large fleet of 787-9's and have A350's on the way, so a move to a two-type fleet could be the smarter approach. VS could of course simply extend the leases given they're quite young and are well-suited for the US East Coast/Caribbean routes.


I would second that, Thomas Cook is a strong probability, I have heard from my sources however there is an on going debate between Condor and the rest of the Groups Airlines over B787 Vs Airbus... Condor want the 787, the rest of the Group Airline's want A330 for A330/A321/A320 commonality.

Condor will have x3 Air Transat A330-200's this Winter flying for them (on the UK Reg with UK pilots)... so the plot thickens.
 
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flee
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:49 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
The biggest competitor to the A330neo is the A330ceo, lots and lots of frames in the market. A 10 to 12 year old coming off lease is far less to either lease or purchase.

Yes, there are lots of youngish A330ceos flying due to Boeing's delays in bring the B787 into production. These aircraft were ordered in place of the B787, e.g. SQ's A333 fleet are starting to come off lease now. For sectors below 3,000 nm, the A330Ceo's operating costs are not that significantly lower than the A330Neo's. So these aircraft are still competitive.

I would expect airlines to accelerate orders for the more fuel efficient A330Neo's should the price of oil rise. I don't have the numbers - but I think aircraft orders did spike when oil hit USD 150. With oil now around USD 70, airlines are still comfortable and are taking their time to replace the older, less fuel efficient planes in their fleets.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:58 am

AAMDanny wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
I'd keep an eye on the Thomas Cook Group. There was a thread on here quite recently that they are looking at long-haul aircraft to replace Condor's fleet of 767's, however other airlines within the Group (TC UK and Scandinavia) both use A330's and UK have been slowly expanding long-haul in recent years using second-hand aircraft and leasing from Air Tanker, particularly out of MAN to the US. They have also been shuffling aircraft across the Group, so there's an opportunity here to standardise on one widebody type for the entire group. The A330neo has to have a shout here given the ceo's already in use and A320/A321's elsewhere, so there's potential for a decent sized order at a good price if they decide to place one order for the whole Group, but stranger things have happened.

Link to recent thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1395177

Another potential order in the coming years could come from VS. They have 10 A330-300's, however the challenge is that VS already have a large fleet of 787-9's and have A350's on the way, so a move to a two-type fleet could be the smarter approach. VS could of course simply extend the leases given they're quite young and are well-suited for the US East Coast/Caribbean routes.


I would second that, Thomas Cook is a strong probability, I have heard from my sources however there is an on going debate between Condor and the rest of the Groups Airlines over B787 Vs Airbus... Condor want the 787, the rest of the Group Airline's want A330 for A330/A321/A320 commonality.

Condor will have x3 Air Transat A330-200's this Winter flying for them (on the UK Reg with UK pilots)... so the plot thickens.


To be honest every serious voice coming from Condor indicates used A330CEOs.
 
juliuswong
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:50 am

AirAsia is currently in talk to convert some A339neo on order to A321neoLR. If all goes well, we will see reduction in their 100 frame order.
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
bigjku
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 pm

juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia is currently in talk to convert some A339neo on order to A321neoLR. If all goes well, we will see reduction in their 100 frame order.


Air Asia just increased that order. Why would they reduce it? Sounds really strange. Though I can see some reasons why they might have done it this way...
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:21 pm

seahawk wrote:
AAMDanny wrote:
I would second that, Thomas Cook is a strong probability, I have heard from my sources however there is an on going debate between Condor and the rest of the Groups Airlines over B787 Vs Airbus... Condor want the 787, the rest of the Group Airline's want A330 for A330/A321/A320 commonality.

Condor will have x3 Air Transat A330-200's this Winter flying for them (on the UK Reg with UK pilots)... so the plot thickens.


To be honest every serious voice coming from Condor indicates used A330CEOs.


I suppose there's nothing to stop Condor from acquiring used A330ceo's if several in decent condition become available and Thomas Cook Group acquiring neo's for the other airlines. Some of the UK fleet were first delivered in 1999 to Airtours. I don't know what the operating costs are for these particular planes and when their next major checks are due, but I suppose only the Group themselves will know whether it's worthwhile to retain, replace like-for-like with newer ceo's or get new (either neo or something else).

Either way, with the winter lease from Air Transat, Condor will get experience of the A330 which may help with their decision, though I'm still convinced any fleet renewal decision will be taken at group level and given the moves towards closer integration/fleet shuffling in recent years, it makes sense to standardise on the one type.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:26 pm

flee wrote:
I would expect airlines to accelerate orders for the more fuel efficient A330Neo's should the price of oil rise. I don't have the numbers - but I think aircraft orders did spike when oil hit USD 150. With oil now around USD 70, airlines are still comfortable and are taking their time to replace the older, less fuel efficient planes in their fleets.


Given the increases in recent months/years, I expect some airlines to be taking a close look at the trends as that may influence whether to stick with their existing fleet or bring forward replacement plans. I guess it'll depend whether upfront capex, oil prices or overall operating costs are more important to individual airlines. Another unknown is the impact of economic downturns as the downturn immediately after 9/11 led to some airlines parking old aircraft within a matter of weeks/months that may have otherwise stayed in the fleet for a few more years (or at least until the global recession/sharp increase in oil prices later on that decade).
 
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seahawk
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:34 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
seahawk wrote:
AAMDanny wrote:
I would second that, Thomas Cook is a strong probability, I have heard from my sources however there is an on going debate between Condor and the rest of the Groups Airlines over B787 Vs Airbus... Condor want the 787, the rest of the Group Airline's want A330 for A330/A321/A320 commonality.

Condor will have x3 Air Transat A330-200's this Winter flying for them (on the UK Reg with UK pilots)... so the plot thickens.


To be honest every serious voice coming from Condor indicates used A330CEOs.


I suppose there's nothing to stop Condor from acquiring used A330ceo's if several in decent condition become available and Thomas Cook Group acquiring neo's for the other airlines. Some of the UK fleet were first delivered in 1999 to Airtours. I don't know what the operating costs are for these particular planes and when their next major checks are due, but I suppose only the Group themselves will know whether it's worthwhile to retain, replace like-for-like with newer ceo's or get new (either neo or something else).

Either way, with the winter lease from Air Transat, Condor will get experience of the A330 which may help with their decision, though I'm still convinced any fleet renewal decision will be taken at group level and given the moves towards closer integration/fleet shuffling in recent years, it makes sense to standardise on the one type.


The A330 flew for the last winter already. The question for Condor is a conflict between fuel burn reduction and capital costs but also between high fuel prices and reduced demand in that case.

Meaning reduced fuel burn from a factory fresh plane becomes more advantageous with high fuel prices, yet high fuel prices usually go with an economic down turn, which means less demand for long haul holidays.
 
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flee
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:17 pm

bigjku wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia is currently in talk to convert some A339neo on order to A321neoLR. If all goes well, we will see reduction in their 100 frame order.

Air Asia just increased that order. Why would they reduce it? Sounds really strange. Though I can see some reasons why they might have done it this way...
The Airbus O&D spreadsheet still shows an order for 66 as at Sept 2018. So their top up order has not firmed up yet - perhaps their change of mind is the cause and more negotiations are needed to include an A321Neo LR order as well.
 
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Polot
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:22 pm

flee wrote:
bigjku wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
AirAsia is currently in talk to convert some A339neo on order to A321neoLR. If all goes well, we will see reduction in their 100 frame order.

Air Asia just increased that order. Why would they reduce it? Sounds really strange. Though I can see some reasons why they might have done it this way...
The Airbus O&D spreadsheet still shows an order for 66 as at Sept 2018. So their top up order has not firmed up yet - perhaps their change of mind is the cause and more negotiations are needed to include an A321Neo LR order as well.

New sales chief, new chance to negotiate.
 
brindabella
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:27 pm

Polot wrote:
flee wrote:
bigjku wrote:
Air Asia just increased that order. Why would they reduce it? Sounds really strange. Though I can see some reasons why they might have done it this way...
The Airbus O&D spreadsheet still shows an order for 66 as at Sept 2018. So their top up order has not firmed up yet - perhaps their change of mind is the cause and more negotiations are needed to include an A321Neo LR order as well.

New sales chief, new chance to negotiate.


All worthy speculations.

But it has to be said that everything about the AAX order which was trumpeted as "assuring the future of the 330neo" has since looked kinda - well - shaky.


Maybe just bad optics and Tony is absolutely thirsting for them.

Maybe ...


cheers
Billy
 
juliuswong
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:36 pm

brindabella wrote:
Polot wrote:
flee wrote:
The Airbus O&D spreadsheet still shows an order for 66 as at Sept 2018. So their top up order has not firmed up yet - perhaps their change of mind is the cause and more negotiations are needed to include an A321Neo LR order as well.

New sales chief, new chance to negotiate.


All worthy speculations.

But it has to be said that everything about the AAX order which was trumpeted as "assuring the future of the 330neo" has since looked kinda - well - shaky.

Maybe just bad optics and Tony is absolutely thirsting for them.

Maybe ...

cheers

I think Tony needs A321neoLR badly. AirAsia X has recently dropped both AKL and KTM, both routes which have high loads but lower yield compared to other routes. A route which A330 is deemed too big, and A320 is deemed too small. Hence the high desire for A321neoLR
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
sabby
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:11 pm

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:55 pm

juliuswong wrote:
I think Tony needs A321neoLR badly. AirAsia X has recently dropped both AKL and KTM, both routes which have high loads but lower yield compared to other routes. A route which A330 is deemed too big, and A320 is deemed too small. Hence the high desire for A321neoLR


They do but your examples were perhaps not suitable. KUL-AKL is 4700nm , can't be served by a321NLR with normal config let alone with the dense LCC config. KUL-KTM can be served by current A320/a321 .
 
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Devilfish
Posts: 6089
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:20 pm

seabosdca wrote:
The challenge is that Airbus is competing for those orders against lessors, who have over-ordered the A330neo and are in a bit of a jam. Many small airlines (including those from emerging nations where financing a purchase may be a challenge) end up leasing their aircraft. I'm positive all of those lessor aircraft will get placed, but I think it's likely to be at the expense of further sales by Airbus.

Airbus makes much airplay of the commonality between the A339 and A338. How applicable or difficult would it be to divert shared long-lead items and other parts meant for the former to the latter and convert some of their orders to the smaller variant? I assume not too many are on the assembly line yet. Of course, the number of potential A338 frames that may be ordered is small to begin with...but that is the pain lessors have to bear for too much speculation. How much Airbus shares that suffering is up to them.

seabosdca wrote:
The quote you posted is intriguing and shows that Airbus still wants to make the same case for the A330neo that it was making before Boeing dropped 787-9 prices. We will see if Airbus really is able to undercut Boeing despite the lower production rate on the A330 line.

Well, as they were quick to point out, Airbus does not have to amortize huge development costs on their A330neo program.


Polot wrote:
The problem with small airlines is that they are usually picking up what is cheapest...which is typically determined by what the big boys are choosing. It is a hard market to rely on long term for a new aircraft.

If big boys are not picking A330neos then lessors will stop buying them for speculative purposes (favoring the 787, A350, or whatever instead) and it will be the 787, A350, or whatever that is cheap to lease or finance and not the A330neo.

I'm not financially literate so this confounds me. On the face of it, supply and demand would favor the least expensive option. If banking institutions shy away from the A338, perhaps Airbus has a financing scheme to facilitate transactions (granting there won't be too many of those)? They might be exposed in a lurch, but such is the nature of their business.

Polot wrote:
Crawford Hamilton is not Airbus’s new sales chief btw. He has been with the company for almost 24 years and has been a part of marketing the A330/A340 family since 2007.

Hah...I missed the A330 qualifier in the presser.....think he would be displeased that I inadvertently promoted him? :cheerful:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
bigjku
Posts: 1709
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:56 pm

Devilfish wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
The challenge is that Airbus is competing for those orders against lessors, who have over-ordered the A330neo and are in a bit of a jam. Many small airlines (including those from emerging nations where financing a purchase may be a challenge) end up leasing their aircraft. I'm positive all of those lessor aircraft will get placed, but I think it's likely to be at the expense of further sales by Airbus.

Airbus makes much airplay of the commonality between the A339 and A338. How applicable or difficult would it be to divert shared long-lead items and other parts meant for the former to the latter and convert some of their orders to the smaller variant? I assume not too many are on the assembly line yet. Of course, the number of potential A338 frames that may be ordered is small to begin with...but that is the pain lessors have to bear for too much speculation. How much Airbus shares that suffering is up to them.

seabosdca wrote:
The quote you posted is intriguing and shows that Airbus still wants to make the same case for the A330neo that it was making before Boeing dropped 787-9 prices. We will see if Airbus really is able to undercut Boeing despite the lower production rate on the A330 line.

Well, as they were quick to point out, Airbus does not have to amortize huge development costs on their A330neo program.


Polot wrote:
The problem with small airlines is that they are usually picking up what is cheapest...which is typically determined by what the big boys are choosing. It is a hard market to rely on long term for a new aircraft.

If big boys are not picking A330neos then lessors will stop buying them for speculative purposes (favoring the 787, A350, or whatever instead) and it will be the 787, A350, or whatever that is cheap to lease or finance and not the A330neo.

I'm not financially literate so this confounds me. On the face of it, supply and demand would favor the least expensive option. If banking institutions shy away from the A338, perhaps Airbus has a financing scheme to facilitate transactions (granting there won't be too many of those)? They might be exposed in a lurch, but such is the nature of their business.

Polot wrote:
Crawford Hamilton is not Airbus’s new sales chief btw. He has been with the company for almost 24 years and has been a part of marketing the A330/A340 family since 2007.

Hah...I missed the A330 qualifier in the presser.....think he would be displeased that I inadvertently promoted him? :cheerful:


The financing issue on planes without a large user base and demand is in the residual value. Without going into too much detail the return on investment on a lease is roughly calculated as follows.

Return = Principal & Interest Payements + Residual Value of Equipment Leased - acquisition cost.

Now in reality it’s a lot more complicated and you have to consider the time value of money among many other things. But if you think the underlying equipment will be worth less than your interest payments need to go up. Principal is basically fixed. The only other solution is to accept less return on your money.

There are lots of ways to finance an airplane but none of them benefit from an aircraft that isn’t perceived to have a good resale value. That impacts any type of equipment specific financing.
 
ewt340
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:00 pm

I could see cathay ordering the A330-900neo in the future. I mean, they didn't order any B787, which rule out B787-10 for now. They only have A350 and B777 on operations and on order.
And they have 58 A330-300 between the mainline and dragon line.

Unless they want to increase capacity by around 30-40 passengers and opted for A350-900 Regional like Singapore Airlines did.
 
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flee
Posts: 662
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:22 am

ewt340 wrote:
I could see cathay ordering the A330-900neo in the future. I mean, they didn't order any B787, which rule out B787-10 for now. They only have A350 and B777 on operations and on order.
And they have 58 A330-300 between the mainline and dragon line.

Unless they want to increase capacity by around 30-40 passengers and opted for A350-900 Regional like Singapore Airlines did.

Cathay Dragon has some very old A330s but these are paid off - so operating costs (without the need to make finance repayments) will be low. However, they do need to be replaced at some stage, probably by transferring Cathay Pacific's A330s to them.

That means Cathay Pacific itself will need to find replacements for the A330-300 and there are signs that the A350 is the aircraft that is doing it. So I think that an order for A330Neo from them may still be someway distant!
 
ewt340
Posts: 250
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:52 am

flee wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
I could see cathay ordering the A330-900neo in the future. I mean, they didn't order any B787, which rule out B787-10 for now. They only have A350 and B777 on operations and on order.
And they have 58 A330-300 between the mainline and dragon line.

Unless they want to increase capacity by around 30-40 passengers and opted for A350-900 Regional like Singapore Airlines did.

Cathay Dragon has some very old A330s but these are paid off - so operating costs (without the need to make finance repayments) will be low. However, they do need to be replaced at some stage, probably by transferring Cathay Pacific's A330s to them.

That means Cathay Pacific itself will need to find replacements for the A330-300 and there are signs that the A350 is the aircraft that is doing it. So I think that an order for A330Neo from them may still be someway distant!


Yeah, I wonder if Cathay would go for A350/B777 combo in the future. But it would signal capacity increase from A330-300 they used now.

If they gonna use A350-900 Regional for A330-300 replacement, they would be able to fit around 339 economy seats and 24 Regional business seat. Which is around 46 more Y seat.
For other A330-300 configurations, they would be able to carry the same number of C seats but with 267 economy class seats which is 44 more seats compared to the current configs on A330-300.
The 3rd configs would gave them 40 extra economy class seats with the same number of Business class seats and premium economy seats.

To be fair, around half of the A330-300 in Cathay's fleet are still pretty young. They also use the Trent 772B which is the good one which many airlines prefered. So maybe they are still interested in Keeping it alive for few decades to come.
 
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JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1191
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Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:23 pm

I am a bit surprised that Dragon has not (yet) tried 9 abreast on its A333s. The slight extra interior wdth on A339s my allow that.
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 5782
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:09 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I am a bit surprised that Dragon has not (yet) tried 9 abreast on its A333s. The slight extra interior wdth on A339s my allow that.


What extra interior width? To my knowledge the only things that are changing in the 339 cabin are the Space Flex arrangement and the design of the bins and ceiling panels.

A 9Y 339 is still going to be a ULCC/charter proposition only.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 451
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:57 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I am a bit surprised that Dragon has not (yet) tried 9 abreast on its A333s. The slight extra interior wdth on A339s my allow that.

The only plane getting an interior width increase is the 777X.
 
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Devilfish
Posts: 6089
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:53 am

An unidentified order for 10 A339s rounds up the NEO haul for October and buoys sagging spirits at Airbus..... :eyebrow: .....

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ok-453523/
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
kimimm19
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:34 pm

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:34 am

Hoping for these to be for Swiss... Longshot but one can hope.

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