Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Momo1435 wrote:SK - just ordered 1 ceo + A350 coming soon
T54A wrote:SAA’s eventual fleet replacement will be an A330NEO/A350 fleet or a B787-8/9/10. (maybe with a few B777x’s). This will have to be decided sooner rather than later
DWC wrote:how much is Boeing selling its 787 now that production is in cruising speed ?
a350lover wrote:Some A330neo for IB maybe? They could probably perform some better once the A340s get fully replaced.
NZ321 wrote:PR ? lots of leased birds
Who is going to take the plunge next?
Momo1435 wrote:That leaves CI and PR as possible candidates for a next order.
trex8 wrote:CI has 12 owned A333s which will be needing a 3rd heavy check starting by 2022. The first leased ones will need their 2nd heavy check starting this year and are only leased for 12 years so they may not even be kept beyond that. All those essentially need replacing by the mid 2020s. I dont know how many of the A359s are for replacement and growth back, when they ordered them back in 09 they had 6 A343 and a similar number of the A333s configured "long range"(less J seating, more pitch) which were supposed to be what the A359s were supposed to replace but they have 12 "long range" A333s now.
While a 787 order is possible I would think this is Airbus' to lose. Especially if they go to single fleet flying for A359/A330
I would also say a A338 order is possible if they go A330neo. They need something between a 158/161 seat 738 and a 306 seat A359 or 307/313 seat A333. They have options on 6 A359s which need to be exercised this year and I could certainly see that happen. They wont need a A339 as they have the A359 already. They need something smaller. A 242t A338 will allow lower capacity on regional routes than a 300 seat A333/A359, while still being capable of starting new routes on long haul. It will carry lots of cargo compared to trying to put eg 737Max10 or A321 on regional routes. 1/3 of their revenue is cargo.
kevin5345179 wrote:trex8 wrote:CI has 12 owned A333s which will be needing a 3rd heavy check starting by 2022. The first leased ones will need their 2nd heavy check starting this year and are only leased for 12 years so they may not even be kept beyond that. All those essentially need replacing by the mid 2020s. I dont know how many of the A359s are for replacement and growth back, when they ordered them back in 09 they had 6 A343 and a similar number of the A333s configured "long range"(less J seating, more pitch) which were supposed to be what the A359s were supposed to replace but they have 12 "long range" A333s now.
While a 787 order is possible I would think this is Airbus' to lose. Especially if they go to single fleet flying for A359/A330
I would also say a A338 order is possible if they go A330neo. They need something between a 158/161 seat 738 and a 306 seat A359 or 307/313 seat A333. They have options on 6 A359s which need to be exercised this year and I could certainly see that happen. They wont need a A339 as they have the A359 already. They need something smaller. A 242t A338 will allow lower capacity on regional routes than a 300 seat A333/A359, while still being capable of starting new routes on long haul. It will carry lots of cargo compared to trying to put eg 737Max10 or A321 on regional routes. 1/3 of their revenue is cargo.
don't count on that as CI is heavily influence by politicians ......
Devilfish wrote:It's a toss-up whether the price difference with the A330N could offset the better operating efficiency of the A359 year-round.
Newbiepilot wrote:I would expect some more orders through leasing companies from smaller airlines. Airlines without strong credit or access to capital will be attracted to the lease rates being offered. Airlines like Azul, Aircalin, Rwandair, HiFly etc are perfect for the A330neo and have ordered it. I would expect more from smaller airlines that have limited long haul networks. A leased A330neo is probably one of the cheapest ways to be flying long haul.
Jayafe wrote:a350lover wrote:Some A330neo for IB maybe? They could probably perform some better once the A340s get fully replaced.
A346 are staying at least another 5 years, and the direction is moving towards A350s. But within IAG, I'd think in EI as next order
Carlos01 wrote:One issue with the A330Neo is the short-term benefit with the low purchase price - which is even questionable against the B787 - is the only fact-based reason supporting it. Then the rest is unknown, meaning mainly the fuel price, and the higher that goes, the less attractive operating the A330Neo would become.
Carlos01 wrote:I doubt that any airline CEO would be willing to take the risk of having to tell the board that "Yes, I knew the risks but I went with the 330Neo because it was slightly cheaper to buy. Admitted, now we're more and more screwed month by month, which was fully predictable at the time, sorry about that, my bad."
Carlos01 wrote:Whereas going with the 787 or even the 350, you know from day 1 how much premium you have to pay for them - still having the assurance of having the most economical aircraft available going forward. It's pretty much a no-brainer, unless you have other than economical needs. Which would be quite rare in the airline business.
Newbiepilot wrote:I would expect some more orders through leasing companies from smaller airlines. Airlines without strong credit or access to capital will be attracted to the lease rates being offered.
bigjku wrote:I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.
Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into.
EddieDude wrote:In the medium term I would expect DL to order more A330NEOs. The planes subject matter of the order placed so far will be used mostly in TATL flights according to DL. The number of 77Es, A332s, A333s, 763ERs and 764ERs in DL's fleet is to me an indication that, when the time comes, DL will need a few more planes in the A339 segment, in order to deploy them to South America (as well as in some West Coast-Northeast Asia flights).
Devilfish wrote:bigjku wrote:I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.
Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into.
And those would be the target of airlines looking to add cheap capacity.
Momo1435 wrote:
AR - they are in need of a new fleet, but can they afford new aircraft or will they go the used A330ceo route?
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Polot wrote:Devilfish wrote:bigjku wrote:I think with the ones currently on order it will be cheap to lease because the companies that already ordered are desperate to place the planes and get any return at all.
Even an argument that small poor airlines can’t afford 787 lease rates so it’s the A330 or nothing doesn’t work out really. I think the cheap capacity argument works for the A330neos the leasing companies are already locked into.
And those would be the target of airlines looking to add cheap capacity.
The problem is that is only a short term benefit. Leasing companies are businesses, not charities. If they find that they are getting significantly better returns of investment from 787s than A330neos then they will just stop placing large speculative follow up orders for the A330neo in favor of the 787, and a supply of cheap leasable A330neos will no longer exist. If Airbus can’t replace those orders from leasing companies with direct orders than the total number of A330neos, and it’s re-marketability, will decrease, and the premiums to finance the plane will increase. Making it harder to be price competitive. The lack of orders may also require a production cut, further rising production costs and making it harder to be price competitive.
That is why Airbus/the leasing companies need to work hard to get more solid orders and commitments from blue chip customers, not airlines like Rwandair. The fact that leasing companies are having to lease out relatively early slots to airlines who business model is subleasing, wet leasing, and chartering out planes (HiFly), aka leasing from one middle man to another, is a little worrisome. Airlines like HiFly should be ordering direct from Airbus or picking up the used planes coming off lease that are being replaced by 787/A330neos
mjoelnir wrote:The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.
Momo1435 wrote:...A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?
Momo1435 wrote:mjoelnir wrote:The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.
A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.
There's always talk about a down turn or a wide body glut in the market, or that the replacement cycle of the A330ceo hasn't started yet. But why are other models like the A350 still selling? A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?
It's very reasonable to talk about the lack of larger orders for the A330neo right now and to come to the conclusion that it's something for Airbus to be concerned about. And that is not an attack on the A330neo or Airbus, it's just the reality right now. Personally I don't have the answer to the question why it's a slow seller. It's a good plane, if the A330ceo could hold up against the 787 the A330neo should certainly be able to do the same. But still the airlines decide to order 787s and A350s instead. The interesting part of this discussion is to find out why they make those choices against the A330neo. I'm certain that Airbus also wants to know. Of course there will be more sales, but I simply don't see another order rush like the A330ceo had. A lot of the airlines mentioned in this threat will simply go for the A350 and 787 instead, that trend is not suddenly going to change this year.
RJMAZ wrote:Quite a few of the A330NEO orders are to lease companies. Most dont have an airline to lease them to yet.
There are quite a few small airlines with A330CEO's. I would expect these airlines to lease these A330NEO's that are already on order.
So i dont expect significant orders in the short term. Most blue chip airlines will unfortunately go 787 or A350. The program probably wont survive the long term.
mjoelnir wrote:Momo1435 wrote:mjoelnir wrote:The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.
A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.
No orders since December 2017. It must be very difficult to read a date. WOWair, Auzul, BOC and Air Senagal ordered a few in December 2017.
Jayafe wrote:Momo1435 wrote:...A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?
The only competing product with the A330neo is the 787, so I dont really understand why talking about "other competitors/planes". Reality is that the WB is not a single market. In the upper range, A350 has a decent backlog, competing with the 777. In the bottom range, 787 has outsold the Neo due to agreesive pricing/dumping. Apart from that, new strategies and oil prices has come with changes of strategy, where a direct plane-by-plane capacity is not happening (capacity/economics wise), hence some A330 operators are turning into A350 while others are downsizing to 787. Still plenty of opportunities out there for the Neo (including the A338) but circumstances and market turns will dictate how fast they come. Remember that 757 and 767 stopped selling for long and were put out of the market, but they would be getting contracts right now if they were still in production. Time will tell, but the Neo looks like an underdog ready to surprise competitors, specially when it shows how much it can improve performance expectations.
mjoelnir wrote:Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to. It is also not possible to declare that it would make it difficult to finance a A330neo through leasing, because the leasing companies shy away. In the worst case ask a leasing company that has already A330neo on order, they will surely take a few more.
The A330neo has direct orders from blue chip airlines, at least I count Delta and Tap to them.
There have been no new firm orders for the A330neo for 6 month now, hardly a long drought. The 777-8/9 has no new orders for a whole year now. 787 had an order drought for four years, 2009 to 2012, before orders picked up again.
There were more A330 orders in 2016 than 787 orders.
mjoelnir wrote:Momo1435 wrote:mjoelnir wrote:The main point in this discussion here I do not understand, is talking as there have not been any orders for A330neo for quite a while. The last firm orders are from December 2017, that is not long ago.
A net total of 0 orders since the January 2017 is of course a good number..... You can't deny that the A330neo is currently a very slow seller, a couple of small orders don't change that as they only compensate the cancellations, which also didn't happen in great numbers.
There's always talk about a down turn or a wide body glut in the market, or that the replacement cycle of the A330ceo hasn't started yet. But why are other models like the A350 still selling? A large part of the A330ceo sales were growth sales, they didn't replace any older models. Has this growth suddenly disappeared? Why does Airbus has issues selling early production slots while other competing planes have backlogs well into the 2020s?
It's very reasonable to talk about the lack of larger orders for the A330neo right now and to come to the conclusion that it's something for Airbus to be concerned about. And that is not an attack on the A330neo or Airbus, it's just the reality right now. Personally I don't have the answer to the question why it's a slow seller. It's a good plane, if the A330ceo could hold up against the 787 the A330neo should certainly be able to do the same. But still the airlines decide to order 787s and A350s instead. The interesting part of this discussion is to find out why they make those choices against the A330neo. I'm certain that Airbus also wants to know. Of course there will be more sales, but I simply don't see another order rush like the A330ceo had. A lot of the airlines mentioned in this threat will simply go for the A350 and 787 instead, that trend is not suddenly going to change this year.
No orders since December 2017. It must be very difficult to read a date. WOWair, Auzul, BOC and Air Senagal ordered a few in December 2017.
mjoelnir wrote:Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to.
JustSomeDood wrote:mjoelnir wrote:Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to.
Well, fact of the matter is, whether leasing companies were sure of their ability to place A330neos or not when they ordered them years ago, the fact that many of these frames are still unplaced 3+ years later cannot be seen as a good thing for the neo's prospects either with operators or orders.
TheRedBaron wrote:With the cancelations they have had, I think any big order will get a great price, specially now that the 787 order book is packed and the price hovers 115 million or a LOT less per copy.... Who will get the bargain?
Things are very interesting now...
TRB
Polot wrote:JustSomeDood wrote:mjoelnir wrote:Posters here seem to try to put a negative spin on leasing companies having ordered the A330neo. I hardly expect them to having done this orders without an idea who they would lease the frames to.
Well, fact of the matter is, whether leasing companies were sure of their ability to place A330neos or not when they ordered them years ago, the fact that many of these frames are still unplaced 3+ years later cannot be seen as a good thing for the neo's prospects either with operators or orders.
Also most A330neo leasing orders were in fact placed without any idea who they would be leased too. CIT, Avolon, and ALC all committed to the A330neo at program launch at the Farnborough Air Show in 2014. You think they already had customers lined up? BOC is the only leasor to order A330neos since then (for 2), which are probably already committed.
The strength of the A330ceo meant the leasing gaints were comfortable placing speculative orders for the A330neo. But the Neo will have to survive based on its own merit, not the A330ceo’s past success. If it can’t then the leasors will just move on. They are not going to try to force the A330neo to have the same success as the A330ceo.