Maybe sk or Ay?

The A330 net orders have reached 26 this year. (gross 32)

In the 5 year period 2013 to 2017, there were 463 A330 ordered and 495 787. Both families had hefty ups and downs,

It could well be that we see the last orders for the A330, but I do not believe so. Frames often have a sales drought shortly before EIS and than sales start again. It does not help either that the A330-900 is delayed.

mjoelnir wrote:

The A330 net orders have reached 26 this year. (gross 32)

In the 5 year period 2013 to 2017, there were 463 A330 ordered and 495 787. Both families had hefty ups and downs,

It could well be that we see the last orders for the A330, but I do not believe so. Frames often have a sales drought shortly before EIS and than sales start again. It does not help either that the A330-900 is delayed.

I think that it is crucial for Airasia X to take delivery of its order for A339s. Already, they have the world's lowest CASM using A333s and if it can be proved that the A339 will deliver better results, more airlines will order the A330Neo. Having TAP as the launch operator is also good due to their Latin American destinations from Europe. Together with Airasia X, a variety of routes will yield some good performance data for the A330Neo. We should also not discount the A330-800 - there may be more demand in a few years as more old planes are retired and in need of replacement.

I can see Delta picking up some A330-800’s. The 800 is the true replacement right now for the 767-300’s and thoughts 767 are getting old. Unless Boeing can get off the pot and get going on there new plane.

Beatyair wrote:

I can see Delta picking up some A330-800’s. The 800 is the true replacement right now for the 767-300’s and thoughts 767 are getting old. Unless Boeing can get off the pot and get going on there new plane.

A338 is way too much plane to be a 767 replacement, I think DL has its eyes on the 797.

ikolkyo wrote:

Beatyair wrote:

I can see Delta picking up some A330-800’s. The 800 is the true replacement right now for the 767-300’s and thoughts 767 are getting old. Unless Boeing can get off the pot and get going on there new plane.

A338 is way too much plane to be a 767 replacement, I think DL has its eyes on the 797.

my gut tells me Boeing offers Delta sweetheart deal on some 787s to hold them over like Boeing did for American and then they order 797s.


I do think Delta will go for a mix of 339s and 787-10s to replace the Pratt powered 332/333 fleet later in life though. They wont be the only ones who order 339s to replace 332/333s, IMO.

ikolkyo wrote:

Beatyair wrote:

I can see Delta picking up some A330-800’s. The 800 is the true replacement right now for the 767-300’s and thoughts 767 are getting old. Unless Boeing can get off the pot and get going on there new plane.

A338 is way too much plane to be a 767 replacement, I think DL has its eyes on the 797.

It really isn't, and they are currently using the 339 as a 767 replacement, so capacity isn't an issue - they appear to be confident they can upgauge and maintain margins. I still don't see the 338 at DL though, although I can see Condor ordering imminently, again to replace the 767.

Some things to munch on..... .....

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... om-453478/

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

Where have you heard this rumor?

Prost wrote:

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

Where have you heard this rumor?

Water cooler talk. That’s all I will say.

ilovelamp wrote:

Prost wrote:

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

Where have you heard this rumor?

Water cooler talk. That’s all I will say.

Sounds good to me!

RLA thinks route fragmentation is hurting medium-large widebodies' prospects.....

https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... red-misery


And this could be evidence of that.....

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ch-453529/

ilovelamp wrote:

Prost wrote:

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

Where have you heard this rumor?

Water cooler talk. That’s all I will say.

I’ve heard similar rumors, with the additional a330neos possibly coming at the expense of the deferred A350s. But it is all just rumor.

seabosdca wrote:

Polot wrote:

I’ve heard similar rumors, with the additional a330neos possibly coming at the expense of the deferred A350s. But it is all just rumor.

An order for more 330neos is entirely believable but converting 350s really isn't. At this point the second batch of 350s, plus a few more, are the only credible replacement for the 777 fleet. I can't believe Delta is just going to throw in the towel on everything longer than SEA-PVG.

From what I’ve heard the focus at DL has shifted more to lower end of the wide body segment. DL likes the A350, but it’s best role in DL’s network is trans pac. But a lot has changed since DL ordered the A350s- notably the KE JV and the Chinese carriers expanding left and right from every city in China willing to throw them money dragging down yields. Note how DL was able to retire the 747s earlier than expected with minimal network impact. DL likes the 777s too and has no intention of getting rid of them near term, especially the 77L, as they are basically paid off. DL got a great deal for the A350, but that doesn’t mean they are cheap.

DL is interested in the MOM (whether from Boeing or Airbus it doesn’t matter). The thinking is the A330neo works for some 767 routes but of course not all. And there are some routes where a A330neo will work, but the MOM might work even better, especially if Atlantic competition increases. So apparently DL is very interested in A330neos in the near term that can begin 767 replacements. Then the MOM can finish up 767 replacements and possibly displace A330neos off some routes. Those A330neo can then be used for expansion or replacement (of 77Es and older exNW A330s) depending on capacity/network needs. At this point (later part of 2020s) DL can reassess their large widebody/77L replacement needs based on the market and what Airbus and Boeing have to offer.

DL wants to ensure they have the ability to be very flexible in the future based on their needs which may shift due to competition or the global economy. They don’t want a expensive new rigid fleet that ends up being a complete mismatch for their actual network needs just a few years down the road.

kimimm19 wrote:

Hoping for these to be for Swiss... Longshot but one can hope.

Lufthansa Group? Does this mean they made their minds regarding A350 vs B787?

I mean logically speaking, they would probably buy more A350 if they gonna order A330neo. The chance for B787 would be quite small after that.

PlymSpotter wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

Beatyair wrote:

I can see Delta picking up some A330-800’s. The 800 is the true replacement right now for the 767-300’s and thoughts 767 are getting old. Unless Boeing can get off the pot and get going on there new plane.

A338 is way too much plane to be a 767 replacement, I think DL has its eyes on the 797.

It really isn't, and they are currently using the 339 as a 767 replacement, so capacity isn't an issue - they appear to be confident they can upgauge and maintain margins. I still don't see the 338 at DL though, although I can see Condor ordering imminently, again to replace the 767.

I see some DL routes like JFK-FRA where the 339 offers too much capacity, in particular during the winter months. I can see DL reducing frequency, but that could push some to fly with LH if they want a more flexible schedule. A 797 would be optimal for a route like that where capacity needs to be controlled given the strong competition from LH/SQ.

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

They gonna retrofit their current A330-200/-300 with newer interior. 10 of those A330 are brand new. While the rest of the others are older than 10 years old.

Brand new A330ceo have GE engines, the older A330ceo have PW engines.
They also order 25 A330neo. Do you think they would add more A330neo knowing that they haven't plan to retired most of their old A330ceo though? Especially since they are keep operating older aircraft.

It would make a lot of sense to see additional 339s ordered by Delta. Not sure about 50 firm (maybe with options) but another 20-30 seems very likely.

At some point they have to think about replacement of the 21 764s, the oldest of which is around 18 years old. As an orphan fleet (2 operators, 38 aircraft) there will likely be parts issues in the not to distant future, like is rumored on the MD-90 now.

That plus a little growth or upgauging would easily absorb another 25 frames.

ewt340 wrote:

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

They gonna retrofit their current A330-200/-300 with newer interior. 10 of those A330 are brand new. While the rest of the others are older than 10 years old.

Brand new A330ceo have GE engines, the older A330ceo have PW engines.
They also order 25 A330neo. Do you think they would add more A330neo knowing that they haven't plan to retired most of their old A330ceo though? Especially since they are keep operating older aircraft.

There are quite a few 767-300ER and even two 767-300 to be replaced and I assume the oldest ones would not wait for a hypothetical 797.

ewt340 wrote:

ilovelamp wrote:

The latest rumor is an order of upwards of 50 A339NEOs (firm/options combined) by Delta as Airbus seems to be holding the line on 350 prices.

They gonna retrofit their current A330-200/-300 with newer interior. 10 of those A330 are brand new. While the rest of the others are older than 10 years old.

Brand new A330ceo have GE engines, the older A330ceo have PW engines.
They also order 25 A330neo. Do you think they would add more A330neo knowing that they haven't plan to retired most of their old A330ceo though? Especially since they are keep operating older aircraft.

Yes, I can see them ordering more A330Neos - they may not replace all of the B767 fleet with them, but I see a substantial part of the B767 fleet being replaced by A330s.

My sources tell me there will be additional orders to bring the total to 50 330neos. Not 50 more 330neos. Unsure if this includes converting the deferred 350 orders to 330neos.

ewt340 wrote:

kimimm19 wrote:

Hoping for these to be for Swiss... Longshot but one can hope.

Lufthansa Group? Does this mean they made their minds regarding A350 vs B787?

I mean logically speaking, they would probably buy more A350 if they gonna order A330neo. The chance for B787 would be quite small after that.

I think the Lufthansa Group will order both types, unless they want Austrian to move to an all Airbus fleet as well. But for me the logical choice for Swiss is the A330neo/A350...

However, with the 77Ws so new at LX, I don't think they will look at the a350 yet until prices come down when there isn't such a backlog.

Flightglobal just published an article saying Airbus isn't budging on a350 prices at the moment, which is where the thought of Delta ordering a330neos instead comes from.

okie73 wrote:

My sources tell me there will be additional orders to bring the total to 50 330neos. Not 50 more 330neos. Unsure if this includes converting the deferred 350 orders to 330neos.

Oh sorry, I thought they would be ordering an extra 50 A330neo.

I mean, I don't think they would convert their A350-900 orders to A330-900neo though, they only order 25 A350-900, They received 11 frames already. I'm sure another 14 wouldn't be too much for them.
Although, they might order the 251t version of A330-900neo. The range is pretty good at 7,200nm.

kimimm19 wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

kimimm19 wrote:

Hoping for these to be for Swiss... Longshot but one can hope.

Lufthansa Group? Does this mean they made their minds regarding A350 vs B787?

I mean logically speaking, they would probably buy more A350 if they gonna order A330neo. The chance for B787 would be quite small after that.

I think the Lufthansa Group will order both types, unless they want Austrian to move to an all Airbus fleet as well. But for me the logical choice for Swiss is the A330neo/A350...

However, with the 77Ws so new at LX, I don't think they will look at the a350 yet until prices come down when there isn't such a backlog.

Flightglobal just published an article saying Airbus isn't budging on a350 prices at the moment, which is where the thought of Delta ordering a330neos instead comes from.

That make much more sense now. The B777-300ER and B777-9x situation is mainly happen because Airbus doesn't have Ultra-large Twin-Jet to offer to them. A350-1000 can't do the job unless they do A350-2000.

I wonder why Airbus is soo uptight about giving discount on A350? I mean Boeing keep doing it with B787, like for Hawaiian for example.

ewt340 wrote:

okie73 wrote:

Oh sorry, I thought they would be ordering an extra 50 A330neo.

I mean, I don't think they would convert their A350-900 orders to A330-900neo though, they only order 25 A350-900, They received 11 frames already. I'm sure another 14 wouldn't be too much for them.
Although, they might order the 251t version of A330-900neo. The range is pretty good at 7,200nm.

Delta will definitely take 15 350s. The original order was for 25, so I would have thought the price was already determined for all 25. But evidently when Delta deferred 10 the contractual price for those was off the table. Rumor is Airbus is playing hardball on the price of the remaining 10 350s.

That said, Airbus, in my opinion, needs to get more sales for the 330neo and is probably very willing to negotiate a good deal for those. As you point out, the 251t version of the 330neo has very good range and would cover most markets Delta needs in the short term. The 777 fleet will be around at least another 10 years so there is no immediate need for aircraft with the range of the 350.

DP.

ewt340 wrote:

kimimm19 wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

Lufthansa Group? Does this mean they made their minds regarding A350 vs B787?

I mean logically speaking, they would probably buy more A350 if they gonna order A330neo. The chance for B787 would be quite small after that.

I think the Lufthansa Group will order both types, unless they want Austrian to move to an all Airbus fleet as well. But for me the logical choice for Swiss is the A330neo/A350...

However, with the 77Ws so new at LX, I don't think they will look at the a350 yet until prices come down when there isn't such a backlog.

Flightglobal just published an article saying Airbus isn't budging on a350 prices at the moment, which is where the thought of Delta ordering a330neos instead comes from.

That make much more sense now. The B777-300ER and B777-9x situation is mainly happen because Airbus doesn't have Ultra-large Twin-Jet to offer to them. A350-1000 can't do the job unless they do A350-2000.

I wonder why Airbus is soo uptight about giving discount on A350? I mean Boeing keep doing it with B787, like for Hawaiian for example.

The 787 line has been running many more years and Boeing is driving cost out of that line giving them more pricing flexibility. Airbus has plenty of room to sell more 330neo’s and enough A350 backlog that they don’t need to discount. As Airbus gauges 77X real world performance and sales while also having time to reduce A350 costs they can make decisions about new variants or price reductions. It’s not a bad position to be in. For now they need to focus on getting the A330neo program into a better spot.

SFOtoORD wrote:

The 787 line has been running many more years and Boeing is driving cost out of that line giving them more pricing flexibility.

Could you please explain me this repeating a.net claim in contrast to the fact that Boeing is using programm accounting and does not account real cost?
Dropping prices at fixed accounted cost means less reported profits, doesn‘t it?

sciing wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

The 787 line has been running many more years and Boeing is driving cost out of that line giving them more pricing flexibility.

Could you please explain me this repeating a.net claim in contrast to the fact that Boeing is using programm accounting and does not account real cost?
Dropping prices at fixed accounted cost means less reported profits, doesn‘t it?

Program accounting has nothing to do with Boeing reducing the real costs that go into building their planes today. They worked with their suppliers to reduce the prices they pay for parts. Program accounting deals with the billions in cost Boeing paid in hard cash a decade ago in R&D and building the initial planes. If Boeing had taken the charge for program costs a decade ago their planes would look even more profitable now. Instead program accounting is a weird anet bogeyman that is blamed for almost anything related to program costs and pricing.

SFOtoORD wrote:

sciing wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

The 787 line has been running many more years and Boeing is driving cost out of that line giving them more pricing flexibility.

Could you please explain me this repeating a.net claim in contrast to the fact that Boeing is using programm accounting and does not account real cost?
Dropping prices at fixed accounted cost means less reported profits, doesn‘t it?

Program accounting has nothing to do with Boeing reducing the real costs that go into building their planes today. They worked with their suppliers to reduce the prices they pay for parts. Program accounting deals with the billions in cost Boeing paid in hard cash a decade ago in R&D and building the initial planes. If Boeing had taken the charge for program costs a decade ago their planes would look even more profitable now. Instead program accounting is a weird anet bogeyman that is blamed for almost anything related to program costs and pricing.

Once again program accounting for cost, has absolut nothing to do with R&D. R&D cost are booked in the year they okkur.

Program accounting for cost, defers early production cost/losses beginning with the first frame that is delivered.

seabosdca wrote:

Polot wrote:

I’ve heard similar rumors, with the additional a330neos possibly coming at the expense of the deferred A350s. But it is all just rumor.

An order for more 330neos is entirely believable but converting 350s really isn't. At this point the second batch of 350s, plus a few more, are the only credible replacement for the 777 fleet. I can't believe Delta is just going to throw in the towel on everything longer than SEA-PVG.

the 777 fleet won't be replaced for another ~10 years with the LRs likely lasting longer than that.

however, looking at long term growth I still think Delta keeps those 10 and adds additional 339s. Ed has been talking about growing to places like China and India and the 339 just doesn't have the legs for it (outside of already started SEA/LAX-mainland routes)

dampfnudel wrote:

PlymSpotter wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

A338 is way too much plane to be a 767 replacement, I think DL has its eyes on the 797.

It really isn't, and they are currently using the 339 as a 767 replacement, so capacity isn't an issue - they appear to be confident they can upgauge and maintain margins. I still don't see the 338 at DL though, although I can see Condor ordering imminently, again to replace the 767.

I see some DL routes like JFK-FRA where the 339 offers too much capacity, in particular during the winter months. I can see DL reducing frequency, but that could push some to fly with LH if they want a more flexible schedule. A 797 would be optimal for a route like that where capacity needs to be controlled given the strong competition from LH/SQ.

If Delta goes less than daily on a route like JFK-FRA they will be off of it quickly.

Delta has a few options
1) order 338s along with the 900s
2) 787-8 order
3) Mom
4) combination of 1/3 or 2/3
5) order more 339s and drop a large part of its hub-to spoke network in Europe. Unlikely.

Alias1024 wrote:

It would make a lot of sense to see additional 339s ordered by Delta. Not sure about 50 firm (maybe with options) but another 20-30 seems very likely.

At some point they have to think about replacement of the 21 764s, the oldest of which is around 18 years old. As an orphan fleet (2 operators, 38 aircraft) there will likely be parts issues in the not to distant future, like is rumored on the MD-90 now.

That plus a little growth or upgauging would easily absorb another 25 frames.

not really comparable.
The CF6-80C2B8Fs aren't that different from the B1F-B7F engines and more importantly the engine is worked in-house. The MD90 issues isn't parts as much as it is finding someone who wants to work the engine without paying crazy prices.

as for the airplane, the 764 is basically a 747/763/777 mixed into one. As long as the 763 fleets and 777 fleets of the world stay activate finding parts aren't going to be such an issue. They will last to 25-30 years old like the majority of the 763 fleet.

mjoelnir wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

sciing wrote:

Could you please explain me this repeating a.net claim in contrast to the fact that Boeing is using programm accounting and does not account real cost?
Dropping prices at fixed accounted cost means less reported profits, doesn‘t it?

Program accounting has nothing to do with Boeing reducing the real costs that go into building their planes today. They worked with their suppliers to reduce the prices they pay for parts. Program accounting deals with the billions in cost Boeing paid in hard cash a decade ago in R&D and building the initial planes. If Boeing had taken the charge for program costs a decade ago their planes would look even more profitable now. Instead program accounting is a weird anet bogeyman that is blamed for almost anything related to program costs and pricing.

Once again program accounting for cost, has absolut nothing to do with R&D. R&D cost are booked in the year they okkur.

Program accounting for cost, defers early production cost/losses beginning with the first frame that is delivered.

So you agree that program accounting has no bearing on the current state cash cost of producing a 787. Glad we are aligned. It probably most impacts executive bonuses which has nothing to do w the price of a 787 sold today.

My bet is on Chinese airlines. With the U.S. Tariff situation and the need for chinese government approval for aircraft orders there's a strong likelihood they will opt for placing a larger proportion of orders with airbus, and the a330 has a very short backlog.

AAMDanny wrote:

Boeing74741R wrote:

I'd keep an eye on the Thomas Cook Group. There was a thread on here quite recently that they are looking at long-haul aircraft to replace Condor's fleet of 767's, however other airlines within the Group (TC UK and Scandinavia) both use A330's and UK have been slowly expanding long-haul in recent years using second-hand aircraft and leasing from Air Tanker, particularly out of MAN to the US. They have also been shuffling aircraft across the Group, so there's an opportunity here to standardise on one widebody type for the entire group. The A330neo has to have a shout here given the ceo's already in use and A320/A321's elsewhere, so there's potential for a decent sized order at a good price if they decide to place one order for the whole Group, but stranger things have happened.

Link to recent thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1395177

Another potential order in the coming years could come from VS. They have 10 A330-300's, however the challenge is that VS already have a large fleet of 787-9's and have A350's on the way, so a move to a two-type fleet could be the smarter approach. VS could of course simply extend the leases given they're quite young and are well-suited for the US East Coast/Caribbean routes.

I would second that, Thomas Cook is a strong probability, I have heard from my sources however there is an on going debate between Condor and the rest of the Groups Airlines over B787 Vs Airbus... Condor want the 787, the rest of the Group Airline's want A330 for A330/A321/A320 commonality.

Condor will have x3 Air Transat A330-200's this Winter flying for them (on the UK Reg with UK pilots)... so the plot thickens.

I believe there is a decision to be made soon. From what I hear Condor is first to have their 767’s replaced, and then Thomas Cook UK and Thomas Cook Scandinavia. A mix of used A330 ceos, and new A330 neos is the preferred choice to replace the entire long haul fleet across the 3 airlines. But I think there are one or two old school, powerful people at Condor who want to replace Boeing with Boeing. So we will see what the choice is when a decision is made (I believe to be) soon.

SFOtoORD wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

Program accounting has nothing to do with Boeing reducing the real costs that go into building their planes today. They worked with their suppliers to reduce the prices they pay for parts. Program accounting deals with the billions in cost Boeing paid in hard cash a decade ago in R&D and building the initial planes. If Boeing had taken the charge for program costs a decade ago their planes would look even more profitable now. Instead program accounting is a weird anet bogeyman that is blamed for almost anything related to program costs and pricing.

Once again program accounting for cost, has absolut nothing to do with R&D. R&D cost are booked in the year they okkur.

Program accounting for cost, defers early production cost/losses beginning with the first frame that is delivered.

So you agree that program accounting has no bearing on the current state cash cost of producing a 787. Glad we are aligned. It probably most impacts executive bonuses which has nothing to do w the price of a 787 sold today.

If you insist on ignoring everything in a financial report but the cash flow. I still believe that earnings are as important and program for cost accounting screws them. And I assume that exicutive bonuses are the main reason for Boeing using program for cost accounting. It is difficult to claim high bonuses with low earnings.

mjoelnir wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

Once again program accounting for cost, has absolut nothing to do with R&D. R&D cost are booked in the year they okkur.

Program accounting for cost, defers early production cost/losses beginning with the first frame that is delivered.

So you agree that program accounting has no bearing on the current state cash cost of producing a 787. Glad we are aligned. It probably most impacts executive bonuses which has nothing to do w the price of a 787 sold today.

If you insist on ignoring everything in a financial report but the cash flow. I still believe that earnings are as important and program for cost accounting screws them. And I assume that exicutive bonuses are the main reason for Boeing using program for cost accounting. It is difficult to claim high bonuses with low earnings.

I don’t think program accounting and executive compensation has any bearing on who will order the A330neo next. 787 pricing is pretty well established at this point. It is up to Airbus to sell the A330neo at the price that airlines are willing to pay for it given the performance differences between the A330neo and its competitors.

deltal1011man wrote:

seabosdca wrote:

Polot wrote:

I’ve heard similar rumors, with the additional a330neos possibly coming at the expense of the deferred A350s. But it is all just rumor.

An order for more 330neos is entirely believable but converting 350s really isn't. At this point the second batch of 350s, plus a few more, are the only credible replacement for the 777 fleet. I can't believe Delta is just going to throw in the towel on everything longer than SEA-PVG.

the 777 fleet won't be replaced for another ~10 years with the LRs likely lasting longer than that.

however, looking at long term growth I still think Delta keeps those 10 and adds additional 339s. Ed has been talking about growing to places like China and India and the 339 just doesn't have the legs for it (outside of already started SEA/LAX-mainland routes)

dampfnudel wrote:

PlymSpotter wrote:

It really isn't, and they are currently using the 339 as a 767 replacement, so capacity isn't an issue - they appear to be confident they can upgauge and maintain margins. I still don't see the 338 at DL though, although I can see Condor ordering imminently, again to replace the 767.

I see some DL routes like JFK-FRA where the 339 offers too much capacity, in particular during the winter months. I can see DL reducing frequency, but that could push some to fly with LH if they want a more flexible schedule. A 797 would be optimal for a route like that where capacity needs to be controlled given the strong competition from LH/SQ.

If Delta goes less than daily on a route like JFK-FRA they will be off of it quickly.

Delta has a few options
1) order 338s along with the 900s
2) 787-8 order
3) Mom
4) combination of 1/3 or 2/3
5) order more 339s and drop a large part of its hub-to spoke network in Europe. Unlikely.

Alias1024 wrote:

It would make a lot of sense to see additional 339s ordered by Delta. Not sure about 50 firm (maybe with options) but another 20-30 seems very likely.

At some point they have to think about replacement of the 21 764s, the oldest of which is around 18 years old. As an orphan fleet (2 operators, 38 aircraft) there will likely be parts issues in the not to distant future, like is rumored on the MD-90 now.

That plus a little growth or upgauging would easily absorb another 25 frames.

not really comparable.
The CF6-80C2B8Fs aren't that different from the B1F-B7F engines and more importantly the engine is worked in-house. The MD90 issues isn't parts as much as it is finding someone who wants to work the engine without paying crazy prices.

as for the airplane, the 764 is basically a 747/763/777 mixed into one. As long as the 763 fleets and 777 fleets of the world stay activate finding parts aren't going to be such an issue. They will last to 25-30 years old like the majority of the 763 fleet.

There is one other short term option ie the 5 ex Ethiad B777Lrs that are for sale.

Newbiepilot wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

SFOtoORD wrote:

So you agree that program accounting has no bearing on the current state cash cost of producing a 787. Glad we are aligned. It probably most impacts executive bonuses which has nothing to do w the price of a 787 sold today.

If you insist on ignoring everything in a financial report but the cash flow. I still believe that earnings are as important and program for cost accounting screws them. And I assume that exicutive bonuses are the main reason for Boeing using program for cost accounting. It is difficult to claim high bonuses with low earnings.

I don’t think program accounting and executive compensation has any bearing on who will order the A330neo next. 787 pricing is pretty well established at this point. It is up to Airbus to sell the A330neo at the price that airlines are willing to pay for it given the performance differences between the A330neo and its competitors.

But then we can’t have incessant threads on how program accounting is evil and is cheating one manufacturer out of sales.

deltal1011man wrote:

Delta has a few options
1) order 338s along with the 900s

This could work...and sounds sweet to my ears.....

kimimm19 wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

kimimm19 wrote:

Hoping for these to be for Swiss... Longshot but one can hope.

Lufthansa Group? Does this mean they made their minds regarding A350 vs B787?

I mean logically speaking, they would probably buy more A350 if they gonna order A330neo. The chance for B787 would be quite small after that.

I think the Lufthansa Group will order both types, unless they want Austrian to move to an all Airbus fleet as well. But for me the logical choice for Swiss is the A330neo/A350...

However, with the 77Ws so new at LX, I don't think they will look at the a350 yet until prices come down when there isn't such a backlog.

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I also thought LH Group but honestly I think the 787 is the prime candidate for them, with the 737 being gone and the older 747-400s being replaced soon the rely too much on Airbus these days and a 777X/787 combination is not too far fetched

What about the rumored A330 Neo freighter? Airbus is desperate to gain a foothold in the new-build freighter market, the Neo could provide an opportunity for the integrators. I wouldn't be surprised to see UPS place an order at some point as the MD-11s age.

dampfnudel wrote:

I see some DL routes like JFK-FRA where the 339 offers too much capacity, in particular during the winter months.

Um, OK. So that's a route that gets one of the younger 763s or a 764 in the winter months. Nobody is saying that every 763 has to be replaced by a 339.

seabosdca wrote:

deltal1011man wrote:

the 777 fleet won't be replaced for another ~10 years with the LRs likely lasting longer than that.

I'd put down a couple six-packs of good PNW IPAs on that. I don't think the economics of the 772 will be tenable once fuel prices rise a bit further (which they will) and the 787-10 is available on reasonably short notice.

It is not at all certain that fuel prices will rise. Right now every time they get close to 80$ a huge amount of supply in ND and south Texas comes on line.

In year’s time fracking will make its way to northern Mexico and in 10 EV vehicles could decouple oil from ground transport in which case oil goes to 10-15$ per barrel.

Having said that the -10 is a good hedge against oil going higher so it will be vey successful.

Sq and ek didn’t choose it for nothing.

UPS757Pilot wrote:

What about the rumored A330 Neo freighter? Airbus is desperate to gain a foothold in the new-build freighter market, the Neo could provide an opportunity for the integrators. I wouldn't be surprised to see UPS place an order at some point as the MD-11s age.

There was a suggestion of a stretch -1000F for the package market but nothing concrete.

I wonder who placed the order for 10 A339s.

deltal1011man wrote:

Delta has a few options
1) order 338s along with the 900s
2) 787-8 order
3) Mom
4) combination of 1/3 or 2/3
5) order more 339s and drop a large part of its hub-to spoke network in Europe. Unlikely.

Yes, it is interesting what DL will do. The order for up to 25 A339s that was placed some time ago is, in DL's own words, going to be used mostly for trans-Atlantic service. What I understand is that many flights to/from Europe that are currently operated with 763ERs and A332s can be upgauged profitably, and that is why the A338 and the 788 were not looked at. However, the A338 and the 788 could be interesting for DL in the future, mostly to replace 763ERs in routes that would not be able to work with the larger -900s. We also need to consider that DL will need at some point to address South America. Some markets such as LIM are not too far from ATL (and JFK) in terms of distance, but are very cargo-heavy. On the other hand, flights to Argentina, Brazil and Chile are pretty much the same in terms of range requirements as flights to Europe.

Because of DL's commitment to the A330 program, I would say the 787-10 won't find a place in DL's fleet. The MoM Boeing however might be a key part of DL's future widebody fleet.

Interesting times ahead.

okie73 wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

okie73 wrote:

Oh sorry, I thought they would be ordering an extra 50 A330neo.

I mean, I don't think they would convert their A350-900 orders to A330-900neo though, they only order 25 A350-900, They received 11 frames already. I'm sure another 14 wouldn't be too much for them.
Although, they might order the 251t version of A330-900neo. The range is pretty good at 7,200nm.

Delta will definitely take 15 350s. The original order was for 25, so I would have thought the price was already determined for all 25. But evidently when Delta deferred 10 the contractual price for those was off the table. Rumor is Airbus is playing hardball on the price of the remaining 10 350s.

That said, Airbus, in my opinion, needs to get more sales for the 330neo and is probably very willing to negotiate a good deal for those. As you point out, the 251t version of the 330neo has very good range and would cover most markets Delta needs in the short term. The 777 fleet will be around at least another 10 years so there is no immediate need for aircraft with the range of the 350.

While the A330-800 251t is no match for the 777-200LR, it outranges the 777-200ER.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/reuters ... urces.html

Hopefully this is just the tip of the iceberg.