Flighty
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Economically MSP-HND has almost nothing to do with MSP-ICN. They are nearly completely separate traffic flows. MSP-ICN is long overdue. MSP has gone long enough without decent access to broader Asia.


Care to cite the PDEWs for MSP-major Asia airports? Would you like to compare them to DTW-same airports or SEA-same airports?


A better comparison is how many passengers ride on the MSP-Europe flights daily. That number seems big enough. Carriers seem to make money, including Delta. It suggests significant Asia demand is lurking there, although whether such a flight makes money — from any of those 3 cities — isn’t so clear. MSP-ICN would be so connective however that it might.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:18 am

727NWA wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
Ill wait until an announcement is made. Speculation is fun for a while but how many rumors have there been on a.net. lol


It was announced by the CEO this afternoon to employees. I was there, it's happening. This isn't MIA we're talking about.

To the other poster above, it will be DL metal.

Too bad it’s not a KE aircraft. I think the 787 would be more suitable, for a start at least. 777 seems a bit ambitious.
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SteelChair
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:45 am

25 339neos coming. Perhaps the first route for the A339 at DAL? Delta has already announced an A330 pilot base at MSP I believe.
 
compensateme
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:52 am

Flighty wrote:
A better comparison is how many passengers ride on the MSP-Europe flights daily. That number seems big enough. Carriers seem to make money, including Delta. It suggests significant Asia demand is lurking there, although whether such a flight makes money — from any of those 3 cities — isn’t so clear. MSP-ICN would be so connective however that it might.


Say what? How in the world is demand to London or Paris suggestive of demand to Seoul or Singapore? You might as well use demand to New York and Los Angles to suggest there’s “significant demand” to Asia.
If you are an American who drives an auto built by a foreign-owned company yet complains about your favorite airline buying Airbus, then you are nothing more than a whiny hypocrite.
 
wingnutmn
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:54 am

janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.


70% LF is making money if Cargo and Business are full!

Wingnut
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kavok
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:05 am

tphuang wrote:
PanAm788 wrote:
I know OP says 777, but this would technically be doable with an A330-900 right? Great Circle Map has it at 6,248 mi which I think is within the range of the A339.

Also, just my two cents, the HND slot should go to JFK once its available. Crazy town that DL has no flights to Asia from JFK on their metal and both are solid O/D airports.

not crazy at all.

Skyteam is very weak to the top Asian O&D markets out of NYC. I keep saying this, but people refuse to believe it. They need actual Asian point of sale to places like Tokyo, HK and Singapore. Frankly, Skyteam doesn't have any of that. how many people are going to want to fly to Tokyo or HK out of NYC with Delta?



DL used to fly from NYC to NRT, but then a few years ago they dropped it. There is a reason they dropped it, as the profits were not there. Maybe NYC-HND would work, but I don't see any new HND slots becoming available in the near future. Meanwhile, there is still NYC-ICN... it is just operated by KE.

The issue is that for all the US east coast cities, be it NYC, BOS, PHL, or IAD... any East Asian flight needs to work almost entirely on O-D from the US side. Geographically speaking, it is backtracking for most other markets to connect in those east coast airports, and then fly on to east Asia. Any connections are going to go through DTW, SEA, or MSP... and if DL is going to really send someone out of the way to Asia, there is always ATL to connect through.
 
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N717TW
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:11 am

LAXintl wrote:
Adding ICN with lots of beyond connectivity on KE can only further weaken MSP-HND.

While they likely indeed would face uphill battle at DOT, not sure the benefit of keeping poor performing route around year after year.

In comparison DL out of LAX, even with AA and NH also offering nonstops to HND plus the half dozen competing NRT flights, DL managed a 86% load factor for 11 months in 2017 (DOT Dec numbers not published yet). While admittedly LF don't equal profits, I doubt MSP-HND is sustainable long term.


DL has no intentional network traffic beyond HND...so connecting traffic, if anything, is either organic third-party interlining or passengers creating their own connections. This is all about O&D traffic to TYO from the midwest and northeast.
 
kavok
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:14 am

wingnutmn wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.


70% LF is making money if Cargo and Business are full!

Wingnut


With MSP-HND, DL can fly three flights to Tokyo from US cities in the East and Central time zones. If the HND slot is moved somewhere else, that 70% LF likely goes somewhere else too, with a good portion of it going to competitors. The 70% LF may not be generating a lot of money, but it is still better to have those pax then have them flying with someone else.
 
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SteveXC500
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:28 am

kavok wrote:
wingnutmn wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.


70% LF is making money if Cargo and Business are full!

Wingnut


With MSP-HND, DL can fly three flights to Tokyo from US cities in the East and Central time zones. If the HND slot is moved somewhere else, that 70% LF likely goes somewhere else too, with a good portion of it going to competitors. The 70% LF may not be generating a lot of money, but it is still better to have those pax then have them flying with someone else.


Ultimately, this speculation of whether the route makes money is crazy. Only internal finance and network staff would know, so why discuss?
 
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enilria
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:36 am

janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

It's inevitable they will add MSP-ICN.

They will not keep HND. They will probably announce it much later. Yes, the slot is valuable, but they have dropped HND from SEA/DTW and MSP never made much sense.
 
avek00
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:48 am

Is Delta ending JNB as indicated on Wikipedia?
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BoeingGuy
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:57 am

enilria wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

It's inevitable they will add MSP-ICN.

They will not keep HND. They will probably announce it much later. Yes, the slot is valuable, but they have dropped HND from SEA/DTW and MSP never made much sense.


I would not be surprised if they start SEA-HND again. Don't they have better time slots now?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:00 am

avek00 wrote:
Is Delta ending JNB as indicated on Wikipedia?


I haven't seen anything that indicates they are ending JNB. Anecdotally, I can tell you the fares on that flight were outrageously high, which implies the yields were good.

My girlfriend was booking a business trip to Africa that included returning from JNB. The round trip business class fare, with the JNB-AMS-SEA or JNB-CDG-SEA segment was $3000-4000 cheaper than the routing with JNB-ATL-SEA on return. That was with the same outbound flight. That would imply the B-class yield on JNB-ATL is extremely high.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:02 am

enilria wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

It's inevitable they will add MSP-ICN.

They will not keep HND. They will probably announce it much later. Yes, the slot is valuable, but they have dropped HND from SEA/DTW and MSP never made much sense.

If I remember DL can’t even alter the flight or they’ll have to forfeit. Even altering frequency and aircraft.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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NickolayAv
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:05 am

kavok wrote:
tphuang wrote:
PanAm788 wrote:
I know OP says 777, but this would technically be doable with an A330-900 right? Great Circle Map has it at 6,248 mi which I think is within the range of the A339.

Also, just my two cents, the HND slot should go to JFK once its available. Crazy town that DL has no flights to Asia from JFK on their metal and both are solid O/D airports.

not crazy at all.

Skyteam is very weak to the top Asian O&D markets out of NYC. I keep saying this, but people refuse to believe it. They need actual Asian point of sale to places like Tokyo, HK and Singapore. Frankly, Skyteam doesn't have any of that. how many people are going to want to fly to Tokyo or HK out of NYC with Delta?



DL used to fly from NYC to NRT, but then a few years ago they dropped it. There is a reason they dropped it, as the profits were not there. Maybe NYC-HND would work, but I don't see any new HND slots becoming available in the near future. Meanwhile, there is still NYC-ICN... it is just operated by KE.

The issue is that for all the US east coast cities, be it NYC, BOS, PHL, or IAD... any East Asian flight needs to work almost entirely on O-D from the US side. Geographically speaking, it is backtracking for most other markets to connect in those east coast airports, and then fly on to east Asia. Any connections are going to go through DTW, SEA, or MSP... and if DL is going to really send someone out of the way to Asia, there is always ATL to connect through.

You would be surprised at the number of connections that actually occur on the BOS side of the flights to Asia. AA has a JV on the route with JL, as a result, many people on AA flights from CLT/MIA/PHL/DCA etc. that want to avoid connecting in larger airports that take the routing through BOS, obviously, it is less than west coast airports, but it is probably greater than you think
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:32 am

If this is true ICN does make alot more sense than HND.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:49 am

flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.


They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...


Like JFK perhaps? Currently, only Japanese carriers (although as part of JVs) fly to Haneda from NYC. If the slot has to be forfeited, I can see why it's moving to ICN...as part of the DL/KE joint venture.

As for the aircraft on MSP-ICN...I expect a 77E to start until the 251t A339s come if DL is deferring for that, then an A339 would take over.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:54 am

The DL NRT > SEA/HND/ICN moves are reminiscent of DL's move from a FRA European hub to a JFK/AMS/CDG network.
ICN is analogous to AMS/CDG
SEA to JFK as a long-haul gateway in the US
NRT to FRA as a legacy fifth freedom hub.
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PWMRamper
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:07 am

Can confirm MSP-ICN will be announced tomorrow.

MSP-HND isn't going anywhere (confirmed by Ed). It may have started a bit slow (I non-revved on it a few times when it first started), but it's been performing much, much better lately.
 
Lootess
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:18 am

Since the JV was approved, It was only a matter of time before MSP-ICN became a reality.

The swap from NRT to HND effectively took out asian connecting service on friendly metal. Now with KE available on the other end, this should help both ICN and HND O&D services.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:35 am

iyerhari wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.


They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

BOS-HND? JL has a complete monopoly on the BOS-NRT market and LFs have been good.

Not a chance unless they either swaps an existing flight/slot or HND opens up more slot.

Michael
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:42 am

deltal1011man wrote:
I have a gut feeling this will be a replacement for HND. With BOM starting as well and 777 mods going on, I don't see how Delta has the slack in the fleet for this.

BoeingGuy wrote:
I wonder if DL will also start SLC-ICN. SLC has gone gangbusters with Europe service so there must be a market for one Asia flight.

Problem here is Delta doesn't have the right plane for this route. It screams for a 788 (as does MSP-HND) but Delta doesn't have them. Too hot/high/long for a 763/330 and the 777/350 is a lot of capacity for that route.

Same deal for BOS-ICN

BOS still stand a better chance because it has both a larger local and premium market. SLC only really offers connections to small mountain towns if we're talking solely about unique destinations served from each hub.
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TWA772LR
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:50 am

enilria wrote:
They will not keep HND. They will probably announce it much later. Yes, the slot is valuable, but they have dropped HND from SEA/DTW and MSP never made much sense.

If DL scraps MSP-HND, and the DoT gets furious sith them (as stated by a previous poster) again, what are the chances of it going to UA, AA, or HA?
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TWA772LR
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:52 am

enilria wrote:
They will not keep HND. They will probably announce it much later. Yes, the slot is valuable, but they have dropped HND from SEA/DTW and MSP never made much sense.

If DL scraps MSP-HND, and the DoT gets furious with them (as stated by a previous poster) again, what are the chances of it going to UA, AA, or HA?
You know all is right is the world when the only thing people worry about is if the president had sex with a pornstar.


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lavalampluva
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:47 am

DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
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enilria
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:07 am

lavalampluva wrote:
DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.

The route is absolutely not profitable. The loads are terrible for a long-haul.
TWA772LR wrote:
enilria wrote:
They will not keep HND. They will probably announce it much later. Yes, the slot is valuable, but they have dropped HND from SEA/DTW and MSP never made much sense.

If DL scraps MSP-HND, and the DoT gets furious with them (as stated by a previous poster) again, what are the chances of it going to UA, AA, or HA?

To be honest fairly low unless DL doesn't want it. DOT is stuck with DL to a large extent because AA/UA have JVs which already give them a lot of HND access. Yes they could go with HA, but they do not provide any real competition for the JVs. In the end I think it goes back to SEA or DTW, but this time they will drop the accompanying NRT flight.
 
toobz
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:33 am

flyfresno wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
Sounds like the rounds of switching XXX-NRT to XXX-ICN have begun.

Expect PDX and a few other markets to follow for 2019.


How is PDX-NRT doing? I would imagine it sees a fair amount of connecting traffic from SLC/LAX/MSP for people not going to HND or connecting onward?


I can tell you the flights are full. Very full. What that equates to in yield is unknown. But butts are definitely in the seats.
 
cokepopper
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:36 am

News such as this is usually released on a Thursday. It Should be interesting. one new flight announced, waiting for the other shoe to drop on how many will be dropped. I.e SVO,ARN, EWR-CDG/AMS etc
 
airbazar
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:59 am

winginit wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If ever BOS-ICN, it would be too little too late. OneWorld has locked up BOS-Asia.


Nonsense. ICN is a far superior connecting airport by way of facility, geography, and network breadth when compared to NRT and HKG in linking BOS to broader Asia.


Besides geography, we're talking about 2 OW flights from BOS vs. 1xEK, 1xQR, 2xHU, and a multitude of 1-stop options via Europe and U.S. hubs. I think saying OW has "locked up" BOS-Asia is a bit of an over statement.
And I'll add one more thought. If DL/KE are not careful SQ who have already announced that they are terminating ICN-LAX, could preempt them both by moving the route to ICN-BOS. We often forget that ICN is also a *A hub.
 
flyfresno
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:05 pm

cokepopper wrote:
I.e SVO


Way off topic, but am I the only person who sees SVO and automatically thinks "Sarajevo," and only later comes up with "Moscow"?
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:13 pm

airbazar wrote:
Besides geography, we're talking about 2 OW flights from BOS vs. 1xEK, 1xQR, 2xHU

With QR the OW counter goes up to 3 (just nitpicking)

airbazar wrote:
And I'll add one more thought. If DL/KE are not careful SQ who have already announced that they are terminating ICN-LAX, could preempt them both by moving the route to ICN-BOS. We often forget that ICN is also a *A hub.


I highly doubt SQ will launch ICN-BOS but you never know. I'm just wondering if KE will restart a 3rd daily flight to LAX or if OZ will finally be consistant with the frames they use. 2x A380 is the theory, but lately we've been seeing 747-400s and A350s. Seems like OZ is losing the TPAC "war"
 
kavok
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:23 pm

toobz wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
BlatantEcho wrote:
Sounds like the rounds of switching XXX-NRT to XXX-ICN have begun.

Expect PDX and a few other markets to follow for 2019.


How is PDX-NRT doing? I would imagine it sees a fair amount of connecting traffic from SLC/LAX/MSP for people not going to HND or connecting onward?


I can tell you the flights are full. Very full. What that equates to in yield is unknown. But butts are definitely in the seats.



I would tend to believe that if HND went anywhere, it would likely go to ATL over SEA/DTW. Reason being, both SEA and DTW have enough O/D traffic to TYO that the flight could work with minimal connecting feeds. ATL, while still strong, is more reliant on connections than DTW/SEA.

Thus if you are going to move the HND slot anywhere, DL will want to put it at the market most dependent on connections for competitive advantages. This was also DLs original argument to get the HND slot at MSP to begin with.
 
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enilria
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:28 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.

We could also use actual data.

I have left out the other Japan routes because we know DL is cratering in Japan (by their own admission numerous times) which is why they are now using ICN with KE as the regional hub, plus PVG with MU. MSP is nearly 10 points worse than the next worst non-Japan route. I can't release fares because of legal restrictions on fare release, but as a vague example, DL's connecting fares to HND from NYC are less than 1/2 of the overall average fare from NYC to TYO. So, super poor...and NYC is a very strong market for DL.

DL LFs YE Nov 2017

MSP-HND 79%

ATL-ICN 92%
ATL-NRT 93%
DTW-ICN 90%
DTW-PEK 87%
DTW-PVG 89%
LAX-PVG 85%
SEA-HKG 85%
SEA-ICN 89%
SEA-PEK 87%
SEA-PVG 88%
 
SESGDL
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:46 pm

enilria wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.

We could also use actual data.

I have left out the other Japan routes because we know DL is cratering in Japan (by their own admission numerous times) which is why they are now using ICN with KE as the regional hub, plus PVG with MU. MSP is nearly 10 points worse than the next worst non-Japan route. I can't release fares because of legal restrictions on fare release, but as a vague example, DL's connecting fares to HND from NYC are less than 1/2 of the overall average fare from NYC to TYO. So, super poor...and NYC is a very strong market for DL.

DL LFs YE Nov 2017

MSP-HND 79%

ATL-ICN 92%
ATL-NRT 93%
DTW-ICN 90%
DTW-PEK 87%
DTW-PVG 89%
LAX-PVG 85%
SEA-HKG 85%
SEA-ICN 89%
SEA-PEK 87%
SEA-PVG 88%


Why would stats for the other Japanese markets be left out, isn't that a more relevant comparison? If other Japan routes are doing poorly as well, that provides less indication that HND would be traded for another lackluster pairing, especially considering that if it's traded for DTW, ATL, or SEA that the NRT flight will likely be dropped as a result.

Jeremy
 
SESGDL
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:57 pm

Flighty wrote:
enilria wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.

We could also use actual data.

I have left out the other Japan routes because we know DL is cratering in Japan (by their own admission numerous times) which is why they are now using ICN with KE as the regional hub, plus PVG with MU. MSP is nearly 10 points worse than the next worst non-Japan route. I can't release fares because of legal restrictions on fare release, but as a vague example, DL's connecting fares to HND from NYC are less than 1/2 of the overall average fare from NYC to TYO. So, super poor...and NYC is a very strong market for DL.

DL LFs YE Nov 2017

MSP-HND 79%

ATL-ICN 92%
ATL-NRT 93%
DTW-ICN 90%
DTW-PEK 87%
DTW-PVG 89%
LAX-PVG 85%
SEA-HKG 85%
SEA-ICN 89%
SEA-PEK 87%
SEA-PVG 88%


Sorry, 79% in November on a monopoly route looks absolutely fine to me. If you’re saying higher load factor is better, the answer is not really.


Agreed. DTW/MSP-LHR have far lower load factors, in comparison, albeit much higher fares.

Jeremy
 
Flighty
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Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:00 pm

enilria wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.

We could also use actual data.

I have left out the other Japan routes because we know DL is cratering in Japan (by their own admission numerous times) which is why they are now using ICN with KE as the regional hub, plus PVG with MU. MSP is nearly 10 points worse than the next worst non-Japan route. I can't release fares because of legal restrictions on fare release, but as a vague example, DL's connecting fares to HND from NYC are less than 1/2 of the overall average fare from NYC to TYO. So, super poor...and NYC is a very strong market for DL.

DL LFs YE Nov 2017

MSP-HND 79%

ATL-ICN 92%
ATL-NRT 93%
DTW-ICN 90%
DTW-PEK 87%
DTW-PVG 89%
LAX-PVG 85%
SEA-HKG 85%
SEA-ICN 89%
SEA-PEK 87%
SEA-PVG 88%


Sorry, 79% in November on a monopoly route looks absolutely fine to me. If you’re saying higher load factor is better, the answer is not really.
 
FSDan
Posts: 1747
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:21 pm

I wonder if DL can shuffle things around and find the slack to fly MSP-HND on the A330-200 year round (they've used that aircraft on the route before, but only in the winter). Moving from a 291-seat aircraft to a 234-seat aircraft would help the loads quite a bit. The timing would probably work pretty well if the aircraft was routed LOS-ATL-MSP-HND-MSP-ATL-XXX. If nothing else, DL might be able to get AF, KL, or VS to take over an additional TATL frequency to create some slack for the 332 fleet.

But I agree that in the grand scheme of things, MSP-HND and MSP-ICN serve two completely different types of traffic flows, and they're not redundant.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
stlgph
Posts: 10316
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:21 pm

once again, let's spell this out for everyone crying about load factors.

Y-I-E-L-D-S
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
klm617
Posts: 2697
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:25 pm

enilria wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
DL is not scrapping MSP-HND. Numerous posters have confirmed that loads are acceptable and the route is profitable.

We could also use actual data.

I have left out the other Japan routes because we know DL is cratering in Japan (by their own admission numerous times) which is why they are now using ICN with KE as the regional hub, plus PVG with MU. MSP is nearly 10 points worse than the next worst non-Japan route. I can't release fares because of legal restrictions on fare release, but as a vague example, DL's connecting fares to HND from NYC are less than 1/2 of the overall average fare from NYC to TYO. So, super poor...and NYC is a very strong market for DL.

DL LFs YE Nov 2017

MSP-HND 79%

ATL-ICN 92%
ATL-NRT 93%
DTW-ICN 90%
DTW-PEK 87%
DTW-PVG 89%
LAX-PVG 85%
SEA-HKG 85%
SEA-ICN 89%
SEA-PEK 87%
SEA-PVG 88%



Keep in mind though that in relative terms the DTW LF with today's aircraft would be much higher as for the better part of last year those flights were operated with the much larger 744 rather than the smaller aircraft that were used out of SEA and ATL. Would be interesting to see what the LF was the year before on DTW-ICN to so how much traffic was diverted away from Detroit in favor of Atlanta to prop up that 92% load factor on ATL-ICN.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 2697
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:26 pm

FSDan wrote:
I wonder if DL can shuffle things around and find the slack to fly MSP-HND on the A330-200 year round (they've used that aircraft on the route before, but only in the winter). Moving from a 291-seat aircraft to a 234-seat aircraft would help the loads quite a bit. The timing would probably work pretty well if the aircraft was routed LOS-ATL-MSP-HND-MSP-ATL-XXX. If nothing else, DL might be able to get AF, KL, or VS to take over an additional TATL frequency to create some slack for the 332 fleet.

But I agree that in the grand scheme of things, MSP-HND and MSP-ICN serve two completely different types of traffic flows, and they're not redundant.



KLM is more than welcome to take over a DTW-AMS rotation or two so that MSP-HND can continue.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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enilria
Posts: 8115
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:49 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Why would stats for the other Japanese markets be left out, isn't that a more relevant comparison?

Because they are dropping Japan routes one by one and they have stated they will continue to do that. Saying it is even par with the other Japan routes just means it will go with the rest. The argument that was being made was that MSP-HND will be retained while the other Japan routes go away as Delta has stated, so to survive it has to be on par with the other surviving routes.

P.S. It's 2nd from last among the Japan routes as well.
 
kiowa
Posts: 218
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:37 am

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:57 pm

SteveXC500 wrote:
kavok wrote:
wingnutmn wrote:

70% LF is making money if Cargo and Business are full!

Wingnut


With MSP-HND, DL can fly three flights to Tokyo from US cities in the East and Central time zones. If the HND slot is moved somewhere else, that 70% LF likely goes somewhere else too, with a good portion of it going to competitors. The 70% LF may not be generating a lot of money, but it is still better to have those pax then have them flying with someone else.


Ultimately, this speculation of whether the route makes money is crazy. Only internal finance and network staff would know, so why discuss?


Internal finance and network staff are speculating too.
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:04 pm

FSDan wrote:
I wonder if DL can shuffle things around and find the slack to fly MSP-HND on the A330-200 year round (they've used that aircraft on the route before, but only in the winter). Moving from a 291-seat aircraft to a 234-seat aircraft would help the loads quite a bit. The timing would probably work pretty well if the aircraft was routed LOS-ATL-MSP-HND-MSP-ATL-XXX. If nothing else, DL might be able to get AF, KL, or VS to take over an additional TATL frequency to create some slack for the 332 fleet.

But I agree that in the grand scheme of things, MSP-HND and MSP-ICN serve two completely different types of traffic flows, and they're not redundant.

I don’t know how locked down the MSP-HND slot is to where they can change aircraft type. I know the arrival/departure times are locked down. But can they switch out aircraft without getting the government involved.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:08 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
FSDan wrote:
I wonder if DL can shuffle things around and find the slack to fly MSP-HND on the A330-200 year round (they've used that aircraft on the route before, but only in the winter). Moving from a 291-seat aircraft to a 234-seat aircraft would help the loads quite a bit. The timing would probably work pretty well if the aircraft was routed LOS-ATL-MSP-HND-MSP-ATL-XXX. If nothing else, DL might be able to get AF, KL, or VS to take over an additional TATL frequency to create some slack for the 332 fleet.

But I agree that in the grand scheme of things, MSP-HND and MSP-ICN serve two completely different types of traffic flows, and they're not redundant.

I don’t know how locked down the MSP-HND slot is to where they can change aircraft type. I know the arrival/departure times are locked down. But can they switch out aircraft without getting the government involved.


Not in the short-term. They're tied to that 777, unless they want another objection from AA.
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:10 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
FSDan wrote:
I wonder if DL can shuffle things around and find the slack to fly MSP-HND on the A330-200 year round (they've used that aircraft on the route before, but only in the winter). Moving from a 291-seat aircraft to a 234-seat aircraft would help the loads quite a bit. The timing would probably work pretty well if the aircraft was routed LOS-ATL-MSP-HND-MSP-ATL-XXX. If nothing else, DL might be able to get AF, KL, or VS to take over an additional TATL frequency to create some slack for the 332 fleet.

But I agree that in the grand scheme of things, MSP-HND and MSP-ICN serve two completely different types of traffic flows, and they're not redundant.

I don’t know how locked down the MSP-HND slot is to where they can change aircraft type. I know the arrival/departure times are locked down. But can they switch out aircraft without getting the government involved.


Not in the short-term. They're tied to that 777, unless they want another objection from AA.

That’s what I thought. Not to get off topic too much eventually they’ll be able to change aircrafts on the route. For example once the 777 is retired.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
jrkmsp
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:11 pm

Ed Bastian publicly revealed the route at an event with local business folks this morning. Also said MSP-HND wasn't going anywhere.
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 2560
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:22 pm

Flighty wrote:
Sorry, 79% in November on a monopoly route looks absolutely fine to me. If you’re saying higher load factor is better, the answer is not really.


Except it's far from a monopoly route. Quite the contrary. It's a competitive route since the vast majority of traffic is connecting through MSP.

79% load factor - by DL's standards and averages for international flights - is low. That would require high yields to pull it out of the basement, and the HND flight has never exhibited those signs either.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5212
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:22 pm

jrkmsp wrote:
Ed Bastian publicly revealed the route at an event with local business folks this morning. Also said MSP-HND wasn't going anywhere.


Well, I dont know if MSP-HND will or wont go anywhere. I dont have any data on the financials of it. But whatever Ed Bastian has to say doesnt really matter. They would never tip their hand to what their intentions may or may not be at this point for a specific route.
Next flight: IAH-PDX-IAH on UA
 
kavok
Posts: 258
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:45 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
Ed Bastian publicly revealed the route at an event with local business folks this morning. Also said MSP-HND wasn't going anywhere.


Well, I dont know if MSP-HND will or wont go anywhere. I dont have any data on the financials of it. But whatever Ed Bastian has to say doesnt really matter. They would never tip their hand to what their intentions may or may not be at this point for a specific route.



It does matter what Ed says to an extent, and moreso how he said. As a corporation, the CEO can’t flat out lie and get away with it because of the SEC. Now, how you define lying is obviously subjective, but there are other ways Ed could have phrased and spun it if the intention was that MSP-HND was going away.

Anyway, apparently Ed said HND wasn’t going away, which simply means in the short term or at least until market conditions change, the status quo is being maintained. And finally, as mentioned by countless others, the MSP-HND traffic flows are almost independent from those who will be using MSP-ICN. So there is no reason why the addition of ICN would have an impact on the continued operation of HND.

The one concession I will say, is that it does make a possible future elimination of HND more palatable from a PR standpoint. Instead of MSP losing all Asian service, it would just be ending an (potentially) “underperforming” HND route, but that access to Asia will still be maintained via this new ICN flight. Better future PR spin.
Last edited by kavok on Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2734
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: RUMOR: DL to Announce MSP - ICN

Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:48 pm

enilria wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Why would stats for the other Japanese markets be left out, isn't that a more relevant comparison?

Because they are dropping Japan routes one by one and they have stated they will continue to do that. Saying it is even par with the other Japan routes just means it will go with the rest. The argument that was being made was that MSP-HND will be retained while the other Japan routes go away as Delta has stated, so to survive it has to be on par with the other surviving routes.

P.S. It's 2nd from last among the Japan routes as well.


Why are you not posting those load factors? Seems a little ingenuous to post some facts and withhold others...

Jeremy

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