DL announces MSP - ICN

727NWA · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:21 pm

Per Ed Bastian in the MSP Town Hall with employees today, MSP - ICN will be announced tomorrow with service starting in 2019 on a 777.

Will await the official announcement tomorrow.

janders · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:30 pm

Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:31 pm

janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

continental004 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:36 pm

flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

The HND flight should be moved to ATL, or better JFK.

DTWorld · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:38 pm

Now if only KE could announce ICN-BOS already.

iyerhari · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:39 pm

flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

BOS-HND? JL has a complete monopoly on the BOS-NRT market and LFs have been good.

LAXintl · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:40 pm

Adding ICN with lots of beyond connectivity on KE can only further weaken MSP-HND.

While they likely indeed would face uphill battle at DOT, not sure the benefit of keeping poor performing route around year after year.

In comparison DL out of LAX, even with AA and NH also offering nonstops to HND plus the half dozen competing NRT flights, DL managed a 86% load factor for 11 months in 2017 (DOT Dec numbers not published yet). While admittedly LF don't equal profits, I doubt MSP-HND is sustainable long term.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:40 pm

iyerhari wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

BOS-HND? JL has a complete monopoly on the BOS-NRT market and LFs have been good.

My money would be on SEA or DTW or ATL.

SumChristianus · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:42 pm

Are there any free 777s? This was all but guaranteed and improves Asian connections from cities the upper Midwest/Great Plains not served by SEA and west of DTW.

MSP-HND supports eastern US/MSP to HND (endpoint) (like MSP-LHR)
MSP-ICN supports connections on both ends (like MSP-AMS/CDG)

klakzky123 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:42 pm

Guess they'll have to change all those signs at the airport that are written in Japanese. End of an era for MSP if the the Tokyo flight is swapped for ICN.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:43 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Adding ICN with lots of beyond connectivity on KE can only further weaken MSP-HND.

While they likely indeed would face uphill battle at DOT, not sure the benefit of keeping poor performing route around year after year.

In comparison DL out of LAX, even with AA and NH also offering nonstops to HND plus the half dozen competing NRT flights, DL managed a 86% load factor for 11 months in 2017 (DOT Dec numbers not published yet). While admittedly LF don't equal profits, I doubt MSP-HND is sustainable long term.

Can you really see them handing the route to AA though? Maybe in a swap for LAX-PEK, not that it works like that.

SumChristianus · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:45 pm

flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

SEA?

LAXintl wrote:
Adding ICN with lots of beyond connectivity on KE can only further weaken MSP-HND.

While they likely indeed would face uphill battle at DOT, not sure the benefit of keeping poor performing route around year after year.

In comparison DL out of LAX, even with AA and NH also offering nonstops to HND plus the half dozen competing NRT flights, DL managed a 86% load factor for 11 months in 2017 (DOT Dec numbers not published yet). While admittedly LF don't equal profits, I doubt MSP-HND is sustainable long term.

I think MSP-HND is mostly O/D to Tokyo, (little beyond HND).
If DL had a 788/789 it would be better for the route, but strategically MSP needs both HND and ICN to fully replace the utility of NRT. (Unless SEA now fulfills that role.....?)

iyerhari · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:47 pm

flyfresno wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
flyfresno wrote:

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

BOS-HND? JL has a complete monopoly on the BOS-NRT market and LFs have been good.

My money would be on SEA or DTW or ATL.

SEA already has a nonstop to NRT on DL and so does DTW to NRT and ATL. IMO, the logical choice could be BOS considering that's the only focus city not having a direct flight to either NRT or HND on DL.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:48 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

SEA?

LAXintl wrote:
Adding ICN with lots of beyond connectivity on KE can only further weaken MSP-HND.

While they likely indeed would face uphill battle at DOT, not sure the benefit of keeping poor performing route around year after year.

In comparison DL out of LAX, even with AA and NH also offering nonstops to HND plus the half dozen competing NRT flights, DL managed a 86% load factor for 11 months in 2017 (DOT Dec numbers not published yet). While admittedly LF don't equal profits, I doubt MSP-HND is sustainable long term.

I think MSP-HND is mostly O/D to Tokyo, (little beyond HND).
If DL had a 788/789 it would be better for the route, but strategically MSP needs both HND and ICN to fully replace the utility of NRT. (Unless SEA now fulfills that role.....?)

SEA? Maybe. I think you are right about not many onward pax...maybe TPE on China Airlines or Shanghai on China Eastern?

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:51 pm

All the HND speculation is a moot point if AA/UA protest and regulators don’t agree. Also, the ICN announcement hasn’t been made yet...

RedTailDiaries · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:51 pm

janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

Why would they end a route from the second biggest hub to one of the world's major business and financial centers? You realize they explicitly applied for MSP-HND (above JFK and ATL).

LAXintl wrote:
Adding ICN with lots of beyond connectivity on KE can only further weaken MSP-HND.

With MSP-HND, MSP is the hub, not HND. Delta is connecting literally zero passengers across HND to points further.

klakzky123 wrote:
Guess they'll have to change all those signs at the airport that are written in Japanese. End of an era for MSP if the the Tokyo flight is swapped for ICN.

Wild speculation in this thread (which itself is rumor). Why would DL end HND in favor of ICN? They're different markets serving different types of passengers.

Polot · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:51 pm

DL has to be careful with the HND slot. The DOT made it clear that they were tired with the games that DL played with the old DTW/SEA slot and gave AA backup authority for DFW-HND if DL messed around with MSP-HND. That authority had a time limit (expiring soon if not already), but there is no guarantee that DL will be able to move the slot. The DOT could reopen it to competition and DL could lose it.

TransWorldOne · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:52 pm

continental004 wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
janders wrote:
Good, they should take the opportunity to end MSP-HND at the same time. They only average low 70% LF for 2017.

They won’t do that unless they can convince regulators to move it to another hub. The slot is too important...

The HND flight should be moved to ATL, or better JFK.

Or even better yet, SEA. I know, I know, it was tried before. But the timings this time around could be better and it could be operated by a 767 which would mean less seats to fill. DL could then dump SEA-NRT which only offers onward connections to MNL and SIN anyways.

klakzky123 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:52 pm

My guess is that DL will pitch SEA, DTW or ATL to the DOT as replacements for MSP. I'm sure DL has its preferences but they'll take a swap to any of those three in lieu of MSP.

UPlog · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:04 pm

I'm sure ICN will do well with the tie in with KE.
On the MSP-HND I've had the opportunity to deadhead twice on it. Both times even business class had seats open and back end looked light also. Not sure the route ever made money (or even sense).

BlatantEcho · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:05 pm

Sounds like the rounds of switching XXX-NRT to XXX-ICN have begun.

Expect PDX and a few other markets to follow for 2019.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:07 pm

BlatantEcho wrote:
Sounds like the rounds of switching XXX-NRT to XXX-ICN have begun.

Expect PDX and a few other markets to follow for 2019.

How is PDX-NRT doing? I would imagine it sees a fair amount of connecting traffic from SLC/LAX/MSP for people not going to HND or connecting onward?

PanAm788 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:19 pm

I know OP says 777, but this would technically be doable with an A330-900 right? Great Circle Map has it at 6,248 mi which I think is within the range of the A339.

Also, just my two cents, the HND slot should go to JFK once its available. Crazy town that DL has no flights to Asia from JFK on their metal and both are solid O/D airports.

papatango · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:20 pm

Delta should do BOS -INC also!

Flighty · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:33 pm

This route has been rumored for 10 years. And it probably makes a lot of sense. So if there are rumblings that it will be announced, I believe it.

kavok · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:41 pm

Congrats to MSP on getting ICN, assuming this happens. I always thought it was just a matter of time anyway. Currently anyone from MSP or the MSP cachement going to East Asia (sans TYO) has to connect in DTW or SEA. Adding this direct flight will reduce a connection for many folks. Given the market that already exists, coupled with the new KE JV, and the slight reduction of capacity on the DTW-ICN route in switching to the A350s, the numbers finally added up. Very good addition to the DL network.

As for the MSP-HND discussion, the pax market on MSP-HND is completely independent of those who would be on MSP-ICN. As mentioned, HND is a pure O/D route on the TYO side, and thus the addition of MSP-ICN will have virtually no impact. That being said, I do tend to believe that DL would want to eventually shift the HND slot to SEA, ATL, or DTW. But that is a topic for another discussion.

ADrum23 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:42 pm

Is this going to be on DL or KE medal?

jrkmsp · Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:56 pm

According to some employees at the meeting, MSP-HND is staying. Probably to be revisited at the next economic downturn.

flyfresno · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:01 pm

kavok wrote:
As for the MSP-HND discussion, the pax market on MSP-HND is completely independent of those who would be on MSP-ICN. As mentioned, HND is a pure O/D route on the TYO side, and thus the addition of MSP-ICN will have virtually no impact. That being said, I do tend to believe that DL would want to eventually shift the HND slot to SEA, ATL, or DTW. But that is a topic for another discussion.

While you are probably 90% correct, I’ve done MSP-HND a few times, and there are always a few onward connections on SkyTeam partners. But I would imagine the vast majority of it is O&D on the HND side.

Edited for typo...

winginit · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:07 pm

papatango wrote:
Delta should do BOS-ICN also!

gatibosgru wrote:
I need DL to add BOS-ICN!

I'd expect this to be announced by either DL or KE by the end of the year.

737307 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:09 pm

If ever BOS-ICN, it would be too little too late. OneWorld has locked up BOS-Asia.
MSP-HND could be made to work with a 787? Borrow one from AF?

GSP psgr · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:10 pm

I think DL might be best off trying to move the HND flight to DTW; which is probably the most defensible move it can make in DOT's eyes. It's swapping one Midwest hub for another, and can be defended as:

-granting access to more Northeast and Southeast destinations not served via MSP, maybe combined with a few new domestic destinations announced for show (say plus CAE, ROA, CRW, and RST)
-moving the route to the new premium A350 fleet which is DTW based
-better connections to manufacturing America (cough *red state Michigan vs blue state MN* cough *political ploy*)

Whereas the MSP hub can't support double daily to both Tokyo airports, I think there's some chance that Delta could support both a NRT and an HND flight from Detroit. Maybe a daily 350 to HND and a 332 to NRT 6x weekly? Bottom line, it's not an impossible sell, and at least sounds more plausible than SEA/ATL/JFK.

hoons90 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:10 pm

Excellent news if true and yet another alternative for stateside connections over DTW.

winginit · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:10 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
If ever BOS-ICN, it would be too little too late. OneWorld has locked up BOS-Asia.

Nonsense. ICN is a far superior connecting airport by way of facility, geography, and network breadth when compared to NRT and HKG in linking BOS to broader Asia.

gatibosgru · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:12 pm

I need DL to add BOS-ICN!

737307 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:16 pm

winginit wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If ever BOS-ICN, it would be too little too late. OneWorld has locked up BOS-Asia.

Nonsense. ICN is a far superior connecting airport by way of facility, geography, and network breadth when compared to NRT and HKG in linking BOS to broader Asia.

Then what's the wait for. If CX can fly 77W from BOS to Asia, so can KE.

Polot · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:17 pm

BOS-ICN seems like a better fit for KE’s 789 fleet than DL’s A350s or 777s.

ERJ170 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:19 pm

How about RDU-HND? Just a thought..

MSPNWA · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:19 pm

Economically MSP-HND has almost nothing to do with MSP-ICN. They are nearly completely separate traffic flows. MSP-ICN is long overdue. MSP has gone long enough without decent access to broader Asia.

winginit · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:20 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
winginit wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If ever BOS-ICN, it would be too little too late. OneWorld has locked up BOS-Asia.

Nonsense. ICN is a far superior connecting airport by way of facility, geography, and network breadth when compared to NRT and HKG in linking BOS to broader Asia.

Then what's the wait for. If CX can fly 77W from BOS to Asia, so can KE.

The wait was for the JV... obviously. Again, I'll bet we see BOSICN announced by either DL or KE before the end of the year.

kavok · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:28 pm

Polot wrote:
BOS-ICN seems like a better fit for KE’s 789 fleet than DL’s A350s or 777s.

Agreed that KE makes more sense than DL at BOS. For geographic reasons, there would be very few USA connections on the BOS side anyway. Connecting in BOS on the way to ICN is backtracking for almost all of the US population. Thus if you are mainly serving the connections on the ICN end anyway, best to make it KE flying both legs.

airzona11 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:37 pm

Great hubs on both ends.

kavok wrote:
Polot wrote:
BOS-ICN seems like a better fit for KE’s 789 fleet than DL’s A350s or 777s.

Agreed that KE makes more sense than DL at BOS. For geographic reasons, there would be very few USA connections on the BOS side anyway. Connecting in BOS on the way to ICN is backtracking for almost all of the US population. Thus if you are mainly serving the connections on the ICN end anyway, best to make it KE flying both legs.

Boston terminating traffic needs to be significant to make this worthwhile. Is it?

MIflyer12 · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:40 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Economically MSP-HND has almost nothing to do with MSP-ICN. They are nearly completely separate traffic flows. MSP-ICN is long overdue. MSP has gone long enough without decent access to broader Asia.

Care to cite the PDEWs for MSP-major Asia airports? Would you like to compare them to DTW-same airports or SEA-same airports?

BoeingGuy · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:42 pm

I wonder if DL will also start SLC-ICN. SLC has gone gangbusters with Europe service so there must be a market for one Asia flight.

deltal1011man · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:53 pm

I have a gut feeling this will be a replacement for HND. With BOM starting as well and 777 mods going on, I don't see how Delta has the slack in the fleet for this.

BoeingGuy wrote:
I wonder if DL will also start SLC-ICN. SLC has gone gangbusters with Europe service so there must be a market for one Asia flight.

Problem here is Delta doesn't have the right plane for this route. It screams for a 788 (as does MSP-HND) but Delta doesn't have them. Too hot/high/long for a 763/330 and the 777/350 is a lot of capacity for that route.

Same deal for BOS-ICN

lavalampluva · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:55 pm

Ill wait until an announcement is made. Speculation is fun for a while but how many rumors have there been on a.net. lol

BoeingGuy · Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:59 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
I have a gut feeling this will be a replacement for HND. With BOM starting as well and 777 mods going on, I don't see how Delta has the slack in the fleet for this.

BoeingGuy wrote:
I wonder if DL will also start SLC-ICN. SLC has gone gangbusters with Europe service so there must be a market for one Asia flight.

Problem here is Delta doesn't have the right plane for this route. It screams for a 788 (as does MSP-HND) but Delta doesn't have them. Too hot/high/long for a 763/330 and the 777/350 is a lot of capacity for that route.

Same deal for BOS-ICN

Right. The 777-200LR could do SLC-ICN but that’s probably too big, as you state. Might be a good route for a KE 789.

If MSP-HND has 70% LF, that’s better than I remember hearing in the past. I remember when that was considered to be great load factors. DL should never have canceled the 787 order.

usflyer msp · Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:28 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
Economically MSP-HND has almost nothing to do with MSP-ICN. They are nearly completely separate traffic flows. MSP-ICN is long overdue. MSP has gone long enough without decent access to broader Asia.

Care to cite the PDEWs for MSP-major Asia airports? Would you like to compare them to DTW-same airports or SEA-same airports?

What does any of that have to do with this thread at all?

tphuang · Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:36 pm

PanAm788 wrote:
I know OP says 777, but this would technically be doable with an A330-900 right? Great Circle Map has it at 6,248 mi which I think is within the range of the A339.

Also, just my two cents, the HND slot should go to JFK once its available. Crazy town that DL has no flights to Asia from JFK on their metal and both are solid O/D airports.

not crazy at all.

Skyteam is very weak to the top Asian O&D markets out of NYC. I keep saying this, but people refuse to believe it. They need actual Asian point of sale to places like Tokyo, HK and Singapore. Frankly, Skyteam doesn't have any of that. how many people are going to want to fly to Tokyo or HK out of NYC with Delta?

727NWA · Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:38 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
Ill wait until an announcement is made. Speculation is fun for a while but how many rumors have there been on a.net. lol

It was announced by the CEO this afternoon to employees. I was there, it's happening. This isn't MIA we're talking about.

To the other poster above, it will be DL metal.

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