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wawaman
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:50 am

Does anyone have any knowledge on how long these 777 leases might be for. I would assume they can be rolled over, but I assume the RR issues will end one day... Is there a chance NZ will keep them around beyond the arrival of the next 2 789's... This would allow them to use the new 787's to be used for a more aggressive expansion strategy. Talk of a delayed/2019 RFP for the 777 replacement got me wondering....
 
Kashmon
Posts: 628
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:08 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:00 am

NZ321 wrote:

Yes I had heard about BR rather than CX but haven’t had a chance to post til now.[/quote]

The BR 77W has 39+56+258 in the layout with 10 abreast economy or 39+56+238 in the layout with 9 abreast economy. NZ has 44+54+244 with 10 abreast economy. In both cases the BR business class is fairly compatible with NZ's product - an improvement indeed with reverse herringbone and a wider seat. Seems a better fit than the CX aircraft overall.[/quote]

a shame
CX's superior interiors would have been fun for KIWI's to experience...
but NZ would not want to give free marketing to other airlines so BR makes sense - no flights to AKL
 
Kashmon
Posts: 628
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:08 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:02 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Gasman wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12064327

When they announced the deal, Qantas and Air New Zealand said it did not need regulatory approval, unlike other deeper relationships airlines form.

So that's how it works? If two big corporations collude with each other, and state they don't need regulatory approval to do so, I guess everything's okay then.

I'm no regulatory expert, but it seems to make sense that the regulator wouldn't need to approve all solely code-share relationships - for example, would New Zealand's regulator need to approve BA code-sharing on QR's AKL service, or LY code-sharing on HX's AKL service? You'd end up taking up a lot of resources.

On the flip-side, for selected large-scale relationships, as this one stands to be, I can see regulators justifying a degree of scrutiny - how much though, I don't know. There are areas of interest for consumers - like, how will QF code-sharing on NZ and JQ on the trunk routes affect JQ's sustainability as a competitor of NZ.

Does anyone have insight here? Will the NZCC get involved?

Cheers,

C.


QF should just close JQ now that they codeshare...
JQ is not needed

this will benefit shareholders in both companies
 
NZ321
Posts: 787
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:32 am

Could the exciting new route from an established carrier be UA DEN-AKL? They operate 788s from DEN to NRT and LHR (not sure if there is an actual base in DEN or if the aircraft position in from other stations). Here's another: LA on LIM-AKL-SYD with SCL AKL terminating in AKL. Another could be DL or another EK announcement. I can't think of an Asian established carrier with new routes to AKL except for Chinese carriers and this is hard to predict. Thoughts?
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
Posts: 787
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:36 am

Re 787-10, I'm slightly surprised they are looking at it but not entirely. Boeing lists the 787-10 range as 6430 nmi. That's pretty much right on AKL-LAX, AKL-SFO, and within easy range of AKL- PVG,HKG and SIN and LAX-LHR. Could we see a split order, say for 787-10 and 359, with the 787-10 configured something like 36+35+238 (308 total) to do currently operated 77W routes and 359 configured something like 32+42+219 (293 total) to replace 772 and open up ULH routes? I'm not convinced about this. I don't know how important cargo volume is to NZ on LHR-LAX-AKL. I suspect quite important. The downside of such a solution is a major capacity cut from the current 342 seat 77W but is the 779x too big? And where is the cargo in this solution? Wiki lists the A359 as carrying 36 LD3 compared to 32 on a 772 and the 77W or A35K which carry 44 and compared to 40 on the 78J. Thoughts?
Plane mad!
 
Deepinsider
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:36 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:26 pm

Of course I do know what a 'new route' is.
But could I suggest tongue-in-cheek, the
exciting new route is;
anywhere in NZ-anywhere in OZ....NZ/QF.
 
777ER
Head Moderator
Posts: 9974
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 2:27 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
777ER wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
OK, so in that case the solution would be to apply a requirement that JQ could not reduce routes or frequencies on any of the routes that QF codeshares with NZ on. I'm struggling a little to see that ComCom could impose conditions on a third party that was not part of the application, notwithstanding that it is a "related party" to QF. Is there a precedent for that?

From what I understand about the NZ/QF deal is if there is a JQ service around the same time, then the QF code will only apply to the JQ service. WLG-AKL, AKL-CHC and AKL-ZQN won't see many NZ codeshares compared to the regional routes which don't have JQ

My understanding was the opposite... where there is a JQ service operating at the same time as a NZ service the NZ flight won’t have the QF code. Could be wrong but that’s how I initially saw it.

Thats what I said
Head Forum Moderator
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With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ
 
nascarnut
Posts: 299
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:43 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:15 pm

Whatever aircraft NZ chooses, the ability to uplift cargo may be the option that swings what they go for. New Zealand being a large exporter of meat/fruit/fish etc, the best way to get it to the market is by air.
And New Zealand so isolated, the country as a whole is a large importer.

As for new airlines serving NZ.

Instead of NZ increasing YVR seasonally, have Air Canada begin seasonal service on the YVR-AKL sector saving NZ an aircraft and allowing AC a foot hold into the market with their own aircraft. Similar to what NZ/UA have done with SFO. NZ was increasing flights but thru revenue sharing UA will go year round.
ANA must consider AKL at some point. Perhaps HND-AKL 4 x per week to provide a daily codeshare service with NZ into both HND/NRT. Possibly look at KIX depending on how that market is going.
VN has mentioned SGN-PHE-AKL for 2019. Will be an interesting market as it opens up the Northern Territories to NZ travellers. Currently access is only available via stopovers and plane changes.
AI is a possibility as an add-on to SYD or MEL. Could look at DEL-MEL-AKL and BOM-SYD-AKL Giving this traffic would be mostly VFR a stopover in AUST makes more sense. I imagine there would be a battle for cargo on these flights given the cloth industry in India along with the large Indian population developing in NZ
Right now the Chinese carriers are up and down. Seems to be a big push towards Europe at the moment while consolidation on the Australasian market but who knows. There are a tonne of opportunities for Chinese carriers and with the number of new aircraft they are taking, who knows
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1159
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:55 pm

nascarnut wrote:
VN has mentioned SGN-PHE-AKL for 2019.

As far as I am aware, the only people who have mentioned SGN-PHE-AKL are the local business/tourism people in Port Hedland, who are backing what appear to be scheduled charters on SGN-PHE. If it's been mentioned by VN as a possible future scheduled destination, I'd take it (just) a little more seriously, but absent that, I'd be prepared to lay odds that AKL-PHE never happens.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Gasman
Posts: 1840
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:16 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12065114

So prawns are off the menu at NZ, apparently because they cannot guarantee the harvest of said prawns doesn't involve slave labour.

I don't fly NZ, but as a prawn lover I'm outraged. There must be more to it - it's fairly easy to source prawns from places that are pretty well guaranteed not to involve slave labour (like Australia for instance). I wonder what the real reason is. Prawns too expensive? (likely). Can only fit 9 prawns abreast in a carton? Luxon wants to create more room on board for donuts?"
 
wave46
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:12 pm

nascarnut wrote:

As for new airlines serving NZ.

Instead of NZ increasing YVR seasonally, have Air Canada begin seasonal service on the YVR-AKL sector saving NZ an aircraft and allowing AC a foot hold into the market with their own aircraft. Similar to what NZ/UA have done with SFO. NZ was increasing flights but thru revenue sharing UA will go year round.


AC is unlikely to add NZ in the near future, as they've indicated that their fleet growth has largely plateaued for now. They are receiving the last of their 787-9s soon and only have 4 used A330s they plan to add to their fleet in the next while. I suspect this is a capital conservation measure after rolling over a large portion of their widebody and narrowbody fleets in the last decade.

Given that the NZ market is a relatively small tourism-based one from Canada (and vice-versa, I expect) I am pessimistic about AC adding service there. I would expect more of a focus on India, China and even Australia before NZ. Also, Canadians are now relatively well served with flights to NZ - Vancouver, San Francisco, Los Angeles and soon Chicago - putting most of the population of the country within an easy connecting flight.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:58 pm

wawaman wrote:
Does anyone have any knowledge on how long these 777 leases might be for. I would assume they can be rolled over, but I assume the RR issues will end one day... Is there a chance NZ will keep them around beyond the arrival of the next 2 789's... This would allow them to use the new 787's to be used for a more aggressive expansion strategy. Talk of a delayed/2019 RFP for the 777 replacement got me wondering....

That's an interesting idea, however, IMO, there are two factors playing against it:

1) These dry-leases probably won't be cheap for NZ, and can probably only be justified with impending RR compensation
2) Product consistency will be eroded, which NZ has been getting slack for (albeit BR and SQ's product may be superior)

In terms of an aggreisive expansion strategy, I only see NYC as being pressing?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:03 am

wave46 wrote:
I am pessimistic about AC adding service ... expect more of a focus on ... Australia before NZ.

AC already now flies year-round to SYD, MEL and BNE, and face far more competition from there with one-stop offerings.

I can't see what else they'd do in Australia, aside from a minor capacity increase, that would be better than starting AKL?

In contrast to China and India, a seasonal 3x weekly AKL flight in a JV with NZ would be less risky and less unit-intensive.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:24 am

nascarnut wrote:
ANA must consider AKL at some point.

I have to agree with this - I can't see NH going to MEL (given JL's recent launch there) or BNE (given QF and JQ's dominance in Queensland traffic). That leaves PER and AKL, and 1) JL has been the rumoured carrier to serve PER, through a deal with the WA government, and 2) if served in a JV with NZ, and perhaps on a seasonal basis, AKL would be far less risky than PER. AFAIK, the slot situation at HND is quite complicated, and allocated on an airline and country basis. If something could be worked so that NH and NZ offer a combined daily AKL - HND flight, that would be a boon for business customers.

nascarnut wrote:
AI is a possibility as an add-on to SYD or MEL.

AI doesn't need a tag for SYD or MEL, as those flights work on their own, and have been increased over time. IMO, the focus for AI will be on making both SYD and MEL 7x weekly, stand-alone. Further, there are three more factors working against AI starting AKL: 1) AI is going through a major re-structure at the moment (with a failed privatisation), 2) there are closer and bigger markets for AI to exploit first, such as PER and BNE, and 3) the higher price of oil will disproportionately affect the ULH nature of a non-stop AKL service, while a tag service will also be expensive, because of crewing lay-over costs.

nascarnut wrote:
Right now the Chinese carriers are up and down. Seems to be a big push towards Europe at the moment ...

We'll definitely see more Chinese carriers here - the looming Chinese-US trade dispute will only further encourage Chinese carriers to use their massive pile of new wide-bodies to Australasia and Europe. IMO, there are three strokes of potential Chinese expansion in New Zealand: 1) HU or MU will likely launch PVG - CHC at some point, even if on a seasonal basis, 2) CZ or HU will consider a tag WLG service, given that WLG has the second highest un-met demand to China in Australasia (ahead of CBR), and 3) MF will launch XMN - AKL, as they have previously publicly talked about starting New Zealand.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6060
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:34 am

wave46 wrote:
nascarnut wrote:

As for new airlines serving NZ.

Instead of NZ increasing YVR seasonally, have Air Canada begin seasonal service on the YVR-AKL sector saving NZ an aircraft and allowing AC a foot hold into the market with their own aircraft. Similar to what NZ/UA have done with SFO. NZ was increasing flights but thru revenue sharing UA will go year round.


AC is unlikely to add NZ in the near future, as they've indicated that their fleet growth has largely plateaued for now. They are receiving the last of their 787-9s soon and only have 4 used A330s they plan to add to their fleet in the next while. I suspect this is a capital conservation measure after rolling over a large portion of their widebody and narrowbody fleets in the last decade.

Given that the NZ market is a relatively small tourism-based one from Canada (and vice-versa, I expect) I am pessimistic about AC adding service there. I would expect more of a focus on India, China and even Australia before NZ. Also, Canadians are now relatively well served with flights to NZ - Vancouver, San Francisco, Los Angeles and soon Chicago - putting most of the population of the country within an easy connecting flight.


Hmm interesting, the thing is NZ are daily to YVR for large chunks of the year now or have increased capacity throughout the whole year to the point where in peak they offered 2 additional flight in January this year, I do think AC would be a good contender to add a seasonal 3 weekly AKL service DEC-FEB as their next expansion down under in conjunction with NZ.
 
wave46
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:03 am

planemanofnz wrote:
AC already now flies year-round to SYD, MEL and BNE, and face far more competition from there with one-stop offerings.

I can't see what else they'd do in Australia, aside from a minor capacity increase, that would be better than starting AKL?

In contrast to China and India, a seasonal 3x weekly AKL flight in a JV with NZ would be less risky and less unit-intensive.

Cheers,

C.


ZK-NBT wrote:

Hmm interesting, the thing is NZ are daily to YVR for large chunks of the year now or have increased capacity throughout the whole year to the point where in peak they offered 2 additional flight in January this year, I do think AC would be a good contender to add a seasonal 3 weekly AKL service DEC-FEB as their next expansion down under in conjunction with NZ.


Well, I stand corrected on AC's (and ANZ's) operations.

I was still under the impression that AC's BNE and MEL routes were seasonal, along with ANZ's YVR service. Things change quickly.

However, I still don't think AC will do too much. The lack of additional 787s on order will limit their transpacific growth.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:20 am

wave46 wrote:
However, I still don't think AC will do too much. The lack of additional 787s on order will limit their transpacific growth.

The wonderful thing about this though is that it'd only be 3x weekly, for 3 months of the year (and indeed, the low-season for Europe, during which time many flights are downgraded anyway) - IMO, it therefore wouldn't be hard for AC to find some spare 787 capacity for starting YVR - AKL.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:26 am

NZ321 wrote:
Could the exciting new route from an established carrier be UA DEN-AKL? They operate 788s from DEN to NRT and LHR (not sure if there is an actual base in DEN or if the aircraft position in from other stations). Here's another: LA on LIM-AKL-SYD with SCL AKL terminating in AKL. Another could be DL or another EK announcement. I can't think of an Asian established carrier with new routes to AKL except for Chinese carriers and this is hard to predict. Thoughts?

That's interesting - I think the 787 could do DEN - AKL, because i) AM flies MEX - NRT with a 787, which is a very similar distance as DEN - AKL, and ii) MEX is at a considerably higher altitude than DEN (2,238 m v 1,655 m). AKL is hugely advantaged when it comes to DEN (and MEX), because it's unlikely that non-stop flights from Australia could reach there, whereas from AKL, they could - therefore, this route would really play on AKL's geography. However, would the market be able to support such a flight? Both DEN and AKL aren't that big, and you'd need connections on either end - I'm not aware of big business ties between Colorado and Australasia? Skiing traffic would be there - sure - but enough to support a non-stop flight?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:28 am

Deepinsider wrote:
But could I suggest tongue-in-cheek, the
exciting new route is;
anywhere in NZ-anywhere in OZ....NZ/QF.

NZ6 said that it was to a long-haul destination, so anywhere in Australia would be out?

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:42 am

NZ321 wrote:
LA on LIM-AKL-SYD.

I do wonder why LA keeps the AKL - SYD tag - why not fly SYD - SCL non-stop, and downgrade AKL - SCL to, say, 3x weekly? Tags aren't competitive.

If LA opened LIM - AKL and GRU - AKL, that may improve the rationale for SYD - AKL as a tag - AKL could become a mini-Latam hub for Australians?

NZ321 wrote:
... DL ...

Given the growth in New Zealand - US traffic, and DL being the only US3 carrier not to fly here, yes. VA may also encourage DL (as revenge with NZ).

However, NZ6 did say that the rumoured route was from an "established carrier", which I take to mean as already being established at AKL - ie not DL.

NZ321 wrote:
... EK ...

It won't be EK, as AFAIK, the rumoured new route doesn't rely on fifth-freedom rights. In any event, they'll want their new DPS service to stabilise first.

NZ321 wrote:
I can't think of an Asian established carrier with new routes to AKL except for Chinese carriers ...

Perhaps:

- MU to HGH: AFAIK, this part of China is the biggest source of Chinese arrivals to New Zealand, and SYD and MEL already have flights from there.

- TG to HKT: SYD and MEL have HKT services, while PER has in the past, and TG does fly long-haul from HKT, though, IMO, this is highly unlikely.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:53 am

Kashmon wrote:
QF should just close JQ now that they codeshare... JQ is not needed.

JQ in New Zealand is profitable (albeit by a small amount). If JQ were to pull out, it'd only be handing this market to, say, the VA Group through TT, as the market can clearly sustain a second airline (even if only on trunk routes). If you read the commentary too, you'd see that the vast majority of JQ's New Zealand traffic is point-to-point and not Australian connections - therefore the code-sharing makes minimal difference to the majority of JQ's domestic traffic.

Cheers,

C.
 
wave46
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:02 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:00 am

planemanofnz wrote:
wave46 wrote:
However, I still don't think AC will do too much. The lack of additional 787s on order will limit their transpacific growth.

The wonderful thing about this though is that it'd only be 3x weekly, for 3 months of the year (and indeed, the low-season for Europe, during which time many flights are downgraded anyway) - IMO, it therefore wouldn't be hard for AC to find some spare 787 capacity for starting YVR - AKL.

Cheers,

C.


I may have to concede that one. You may just be right.

At any rate, I'm all for it - I might be making a trip that way in the next couple of years.
 
tealnz
Posts: 207
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
That's interesting - I think the 787 could do DEN - AKL, because i) AM flies MEX - NRT with a 787, which is a very similar distance as DEN - AKL, and ii) MEX is at a considerably higher altitude than DEN (2,238 m v 1,655 m). AKL is hugely advantaged when it comes to DEN (and MEX), because it's unlikely that non-stop flights from Australia could reach there, whereas from AKL, they could - therefore, this route would really play on AKL's geography. However, would the market be able to support such a flight? Both DEN and AKL aren't that big, and you'd need connections on either end - I'm not aware of big business ties between Colorado and Australasia? Skiing traffic would be there - sure - but enough to support a non-stop flight?

Both ANA and Aeromexico fly 787-8s on the non-stop route as far as I'm aware. Presumably it's the lower wing loading that lets them do it in spite of the altitude. I suspect NZ would need to block seats to do it westbound with a 789.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:03 am

tealnz wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
That's interesting - I think the 787 could do DEN - AKL, because i) AM flies MEX - NRT with a 787, which is a very similar distance as DEN - AKL, and ii) MEX is at a considerably higher altitude than DEN (2,238 m v 1,655 m). AKL is hugely advantaged when it comes to DEN (and MEX), because it's unlikely that non-stop flights from Australia could reach there, whereas from AKL, they could - therefore, this route would really play on AKL's geography. However, would the market be able to support such a flight? Both DEN and AKL aren't that big, and you'd need connections on either end - I'm not aware of big business ties between Colorado and Australasia? Skiing traffic would be there - sure - but enough to support a non-stop flight?

Both ANA and Aeromexico fly 787-8s on the non-stop route as far as I'm aware. Presumably it's the lower wing loading that lets them do it in spite of the altitude. I suspect NZ would need to block seats to do it westbound with a 789.

We were actually talking about UA with a 788 - but yes, agree with your point about NZ and a 789.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:09 am

NZ321 wrote:
Re 787-10, I'm slightly surprised they are looking at it but not entirely. Boeing lists the 787-10 range as 6430 nmi. That's pretty much right on AKL-LAX, AKL-SFO, and within easy range of AKL- PVG,HKG and SIN and LAX-LHR. Could we see a split order, say for 787-10 and 359, with the 787-10 configured something like 36+35+238 (308 total) to do currently operated 77W routes and 359 configured something like 32+42+219 (293 total) to replace 772 and open up ULH routes?

In a former LNC blog there was a concern expressed regarding the hot and high performance of the 787-10 in the summer months, particularly on routes over 5,000 nm. Places like LAX and PVG can get hot at times - I'm not sure if this would be a concern for NZ, particularly with cargo demands too? Does anyone know whether Boeing has addressed this concern with the 787-10?

Cheers,

C.
 
NZ6
Posts: 402
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:59 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Regarding the rumour about an exciting new route from an established carrier that NZ6 posted about, is it possible that the route may be AKL - EWR on a UA 789?

It's virtually the same distance as LAX - SIN, which UA already flies with the 789 (7,655 nm v 7,621 nm), and would be consistent with UA's strategy of ULH flights.

For NZ, does it make a difference if the route was on NZ or UA metal, given the revenue-sharing JV? UA operating it would remove NZ's pressure for a new order?

Gasman wrote:
Indeed. I just don't see that there's any major hurry here ...

See above. The only route with urgency (i.e. pre-2022) is IMO, AKL - NYC. UA opening it instead under the JV may remove NZ's pressure to get a 359/777-X for it.

Cheers,

C.


It's also the same carrier who announced IAH-AKL before NZ eventually launched it.

I'm not saying it won't happen for NZ or UA but it's not the route I was talking about.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:09 am

NZ6 wrote:
It's also the same carrier who announced IAH-AKL before NZ eventually launched it.

I'm not saying it won't happen for NZ or UA but it's not the route I was talking about.

Interesting! Excluding NYC then, UA's mainland hubs all have (or will have) links to AKL, except DEN and IAD - I can't see IAD being launched ahead of NYC, so it'd have to be DEN.

I do like the idea of DEN, as playing on AKL's geography - as I said above, it's unlikely that a flight could make it from DEN to Australia, but with AKL, it could. That's to AKL's benefit.

UA's 788 may also be the right-sized plane for this thin route, instead of the NZ 789. This plays on the flexibility of the metal-neutral JV, which is another potentially effective strategy.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:26 am

Phil Twyford says that, regarding the tram to AKL, "most people who use that line will use it to get to and from work and education" - i.e. they won't be tourists. Therefore, he seems to suggest that it won't need to be as fast as heavy rail. I'm not sure I get the logic? Workers are less pressed for time than tourists? :scratchchin:

This comes on the back of a lobby group saying that AKL's light rail project will "be one of the slowest public transport airport links in the world."

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/104412 ... -the-world.

Cheers,

C.
 
Kashmon
Posts: 628
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:08 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:47 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Kashmon wrote:
QF should just close JQ now that they codeshare... JQ is not needed.

JQ in New Zealand is profitable (albeit by a small amount). If JQ were to pull out, it'd only be handing this market to, say, the VA Group through TT, as the market can clearly sustain a second airline (even if only on trunk routes). If you read the commentary too, you'd see that the vast majority of JQ's New Zealand traffic is point-to-point and not Australian connections - therefore the code-sharing makes minimal difference to the majority of JQ's domestic traffic.

Cheers,

C.


it is about Opportunity cost. QF would do well to divert JQ to another region...

VA etc have no money to invest in or start another airline...

in fact if they do it will only accelerate their path to bankruptcy.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:31 am

Kashmon wrote:
it is about Opportunity cost. QF would do well to divert JQ to another region.

... and just what opportunity is JQ missing out on, by continuing to fly domestically in New Zealand? They're already in Australia, ASEAN (through Singapore and Vietnam) and Japan, and can't really expand in Hong Kong and China due to regulatory reasons. Meanwhile, Korea and Taiwan are both already extremely competitive on the LCC front.

Should JQ drop out of New Zealand, the QF Group would actually be shooting itself in the foot - it'd be removing a significant element of pressure on NZ's cash-cow domestic market. NZ could increase fares here, and then use the additional money it makes to expand more aggressively in markets that QF competes with NZ on (think the Americas).

In any event, this is all moot, because QF has said “We’re fully committed to Jetstar in New Zealand” - “We are 110 per cent behind our operation over there” - “It’s a very very important piece of the Jetstar jigsaw puzzle" - ""the codeshare deal did not necessarily mean Jetstar New Zealand was less likely to grow." JQ and QF are definitely here to stay.

Kashmon wrote:
VA etc have no money to invest in or start another airline.

Nobody is saying that they'd open a new airline - indeed, they don't need to. Australian airlines have full rights to fly domestically within New Zealand. Upon NZ ending the NZ - VA alliance, VA said it was exploring expanding the TT brand to New Zealand. It's not unreasonable to suggest that TT would fly domestically here, should JQ pull out of here. ;)

Cheers,

C.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1159
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:15 am

Confirmed that the leased 77E will operate to HNL.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-changes/
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6060
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:11 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Confirmed that the leased 77E will operate to HNL.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-changes/


Didn’t I read it would be around for several months? If so I wonder what it will do beyond these dates? Seems a lot of effort to have it on the NZ register for 7 weeks?
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 616
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:20 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Phil Twyford says that, regarding the tram to AKL, "most people who use that line will use it to get to and from work and education" - i.e. they won't be tourists. Therefore, he seems to suggest that it won't need to be as fast as heavy rail. I'm not sure I get the logic? Workers are less pressed for time than tourists? :scratchchin:

This comes on the back of a lobby group saying that AKL's light rail project will "be one of the slowest public transport airport links in the world."

See: https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/104412 ... -the-world.

Cheers,

C.


The point is that while the end to end time may be slower, most of the users will not be travelling the entire length. This was never a solely airport to CBD transport option. It also serves all the people that live and work along the route. That includes airport workers as well as CBD workers and people travelling between any combination of stops.

To use a UK example. The light rail is more a Picadilly London Underground from Heathrow into central London and not a Heathrow Express non stop into Paddington. Both can be used to get into the centre of town but one has that as well as serving local communities. That is what the Auckland light rail is going to be.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:08 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
The point is that while the end to end time may be slower, most of the users will not be travelling the entire length. This was never a solely airport to CBD transport option.

Ah, ok - that makes more sense - thanks for clarifying.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:43 am

There has been an interesting aviation-related partnership between New Zealand and the Solomon Islands developed - it focuses on New Zealand "establishing a State Owned Enterprise for airport management in the Solomons."

It's very unlikely - I know - but it'd be interesting if an AKL - HIR service ever became re-established. Solomon Airlines did used to fly here, though I can't remember details of the service - does anyone know? Was it non-stop? :scratchchin:

See: https://www.radionz.co.nz/international ... elcomes-pm.

Cheers,

C.
 
PA515
Posts: 1288
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:50 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Confirmed that the leased 77E will operate to HNL.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-changes/


Didn’t I read it would be around for several months? If so I wonder what it will do beyond these dates? Seems a lot of effort to have it on the NZ register for 7 weeks?

I understood ZK-OKI was being leased for an initial 12 months that could be extended. It hasn't flown since 29 Mar and was in a SIN hangar on 10 Apr. As it's not going to be ready until about 16 July, it must be getting quite a bit of maintenance done, possibly even an all white repaint. No change to the seating (26C, 245Y).

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-a ... 2SJ6nCcgLl

Edit: Appears it could be AKL-PER from Sep.

PA515
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3428
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:46 pm

A couple of images of the A359 out of WLG this morning…

Image

Image
come visit the south pacific
 
NZ321
Posts: 787
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:38 pm

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Confirmed that the leased 77E will operate to HNL.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-changes/


Didn’t I read it would be around for several months? If so I wonder what it will do beyond these dates? Seems a lot of effort to have it on the NZ register for 7 weeks?

I understood ZK-OKI was being leased for an initial 12 months that could be extended. It hasn't flown since 29 Mar and was in a SIN hangar on 10 Apr. As it's not going to be ready until about 16 July, it must be getting quite a bit of maintenance done, possibly even an all white repaint. No change to the seating (26C, 245Y).

http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/travel-a ... 2SJ6nCcgLl

Edit: Appears it could be AKL-PER from Sep.

PA515


So is it being repainted? Will it have a black tail? Thoughts? If 12 months is it in full SQ garb or hybrid or painted NZ on the outside?
Plane mad!
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1159
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:48 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
There has been an interesting aviation-related partnership between New Zealand and the Solomon Islands developed - it focuses on New Zealand "establishing a State Owned Enterprise for airport management in the Solomons."

It's very unlikely - I know - but it'd be interesting if an AKL - HIR service ever became re-established. Solomon Airlines did used to fly here, though I can't remember details of the service - does anyone know? Was it non-stop?

Pretty sure it was also an Air Nauru route back when they served AKL.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1159
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:50 pm

NZ6 wrote:
It's also the same carrier who announced IAH-AKL before NZ eventually launched it.

I'm not saying it won't happen for NZ or UA but it's not the route I was talking about.

IIRC it was announced by CO before the merger with UA. Not sure if it was still proposed after the merger?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
sq256
Posts: 263
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:37 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:35 am

IIRC the IAH-AKL route was scrapped shortly after the mostly ex-CO-management (at the time) took the controls of the then freshly merged UA.
 
Sylus
Posts: 84
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:14 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:25 am

Virgin executive Rob Sharp has said Virgin Group is looking at bringing tiger to trans-tasman.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/10452 ... ew-zealand

Could see tiger being reasonably successful on the more lesuire based routes in NZ i.e CHC-BNE, AKL-OOL, DUD-BNE. They would need to be very competitive with Jetstar on price but I'd be willing to go out on limb to say Tiger's brand image is less damaged than JQ's in New Zealand, (although the opposite is true in Australia).
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:03 am

Sylus wrote:
Could see tiger being reasonably successful on the more lesuire based routes in NZ ...

I agree - they could dedicate Tiger to the more leisure routes, being all routes ex-CHC, DUD, OOL and ZQN, leaving the higher-yielding intra-AKL, SYD, MEL, BNE and WLG markets to Virgin. I could also see them replacing Virgin on the AKL / CHC - RAR and AKL - TBU flights too, which are likely lower-yielding.

Cheers,

C.
 
aerohottie
Posts: 745
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:36 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Sylus wrote:
Could see tiger being reasonably successful on the more lesuire based routes in NZ ...

I agree - they could dedicate Tiger to the more leisure routes, being all routes ex-CHC, DUD, OOL and ZQN, leaving the higher-yielding intra-AKL, SYD, MEL, BNE and WLG markets to Virgin. I could also see them replacing Virgin on the AKL / CHC - RAR and AKL - TBU flights too, which are likely lower-yielding.

Cheers,

C.

In usual airliners fashion, if i was Virgin CEO i'd go even further.
I'd pull VA out of all markets in NZ except AKL. I'd use Tiger to service everywhere else, including PI flights. And use VA exclusively from AKL to MEL, SYD and BNE twice daily (at least) with A330's
What?
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 3122
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:45 am

aerohottie wrote:
I'd pull VA out of all markets in NZ except AKL. I'd use Tiger to service everywhere else, including PI flights. And use VA exclusively from AKL to MEL, SYD and BNE twice daily (at least) with A330's

WLG does have a fair chunk of higher-yielding business and government traffic though, which may make it harder to win contracts in if Tiger was the VA Group's operator of all WLG services. They only operated WLG - BNE until recently, but after the JV ending, IMO, they'll want to maintain some of the premium-focused capacity at WLG that they previously had relied on NZ for (think VA on SYD - WLG and SQ on MEL - WLG).

Regarding the A330's, I'm not so sure that they're the answer - increasing frequency with the 737's should, IMO, be the priority, if any expansion is to take place. Frequency is the key element which VA loses out to NZ and QF on, and is the key factor for the higher-yielding business customers in the market. In contrast to PER, AKL is close enough to SYD and MEL that it doesn't need a bed-based product in Business Class, no?

Cheers,

C.
 
sq256
Posts: 263
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:37 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:17 am

BNE/SYD/MEL-AKL and SYD/BNE-WLG would be my suggestion to keep whatever Biz traffic they have AND to meet codeshare/JV obligations for HU/HX/DL for VA mainline Trans-Tasman service, IMHO. Not sure if CHC is part of any of the agreements with the 3 JV partners.

Everything else (which is likely low yielding) IMHO can be either handed to TT (e.g OOL-AKL, East Coast-CHC, East Coast-DUD, etc). VA's remaining AKL-PI flights could also be "TTed" as part of a OOL/AKL/P.I/AKL/OOL rotation or such.
 
zkncj
Posts: 2841
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:52 am

aerohottie wrote:
I'd pull VA out of all markets in NZ except AKL. I'd use Tiger to service everywhere else, including PI flights. And use VA exclusively from AKL to MEL, SYD and BNE twice daily (at least) with A330's


Issue being VA has now tied it A332s up with bargin passengers to HKG, trying to make some quick cash against the Asian airlines.

I think if VA was to hand some New Zealand flights over to TT, they would be best to do all of them. Reason being VA already has an very small brand image in the New Zealand market due to it effectively being an Link carrier for NZ, who did most of the marketing and booked the passengers. If VA was to cut back there New Zealand routes, they are going to shrink there brand image even more and will become just one of the randoms on the Tasman, e.g. NZ/QF have worked hard to make them self 'house hold names' in these markets.

VA would awesome be better to re-launch New Zealand with TT, with an 'works style' package you can add-on. Then use the hype from TT to try re-build there market into New Zealand.


Would they touch domestic? It would be hard with AKL and ZQN already full.
 
sq256
Posts: 263
Joined: Sun Jul 18, 2010 10:37 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:25 am

zkncj wrote:
Issue being VA has now tied it A332s up with bargin passengers to HKG, trying to make some quick cash against the Asian airlines.


VA wouldn't be flying to HKG if HX's parent hadn't bought their 20% stake in the carrier in the first place. Bilaterals are full on the HK end that's why VA is on the route.

With HX's parent (and EY by extension for that matter) still pondering over their own dire financial situations, it's a wait and see whether HNA will offload HX or not (and the future that follows).
 
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LamboAston
Posts: 576
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:56 am

wawaman wrote:
Does anyone have any knowledge on how long these 777 leases might be for. I would assume they can be rolled over, but I assume the RR issues will end one day... Is there a chance NZ will keep them around beyond the arrival of the next 2 789's... This would allow them to use the new 787's to be used for a more aggressive expansion strategy. Talk of a delayed/2019 RFP for the 777 replacement got me wondering....

I was told 10-12 months for ZK-OKI, and it's keeping the SQ product. I still haven't been told what livery it'll be in.

From what I've heard its still up in the air whether the 77W is BR or CX
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
NZ, EK, QF, SQ, UA, US, CO, FZ, FR, U2, BA, VA, VS, MH, EI, EY, LH, EN, NM, TG, GZ
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3428
Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2018

Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:52 am

This story on Hamilton’s Pacific Aerospace being fined for breaching a UN ban for trade with the DPRK is interesting …

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/359136/nz-firm-fined-nearly-75k-for-breaching-un-sanctions
come visit the south pacific
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