dtw2hyd wrote:

Let me summarize.

GA shortchanged DL to the extent of $40 Million
The guy who led the effort to stop $40 Million to DL may become GA Governor.
State of Georgia is also planning to take over ATL from City of Atlanta

What does that have to do with anything? I'm pretty sure the future gov of GA isn't interested in starting a war with Delta. The spat is over.

I'm not reading through 9 pages of this thread but it looks like JFK-BOM will be flown with the A350

If ATL, 77L. If JFK, 77L or A359, more likely 77L. BOM has relatively short runways, enough so that AC had to use 77L instead of 789 for BOM-YYZ during the winter months (with longer flying time). Additionally, DL's A359 are not the highest MTOW available.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Didn't DL fly JFK-BOM in the mid-2000's using the 777LR?

Yeah from around 1 yr ('07-08) DL did JFK-BOM nonstop. It was one of their first 77L flights. When DL entered, AI had JFK-DEL nonstop (77L) and CO had EWR-DEL (77E). However, within 3-6 months of launching this route, AI started JFK-BOM and CO started EWR-BOM. CO had the benefit of a representative diaspora population in NJ, along with a strong hub. AI survived on government subsidies and were able to undercut DL on pricing.

This forced DL to move to ATL-BOM for one year, before nonstop BOM was cancelled all together in 2009.

Irehdna wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

Didn't DL fly JFK-BOM in the mid-2000's using the 777LR?

Yeah from around 1 yr ('07-08) DL did JFK-BOM nonstop. It was one of their first 77L flights. When DL entered, AI had JFK-DEL nonstop (77L) .

Correction. AI didn't have any JFK DEL non stop during 2006. It was JFK LHR DEL on the 744.

From JFK it will be the A350. its a done deal.

jumbojet wrote:

From JFK it will be the A350. its a done deal.

officially confirmed or your prediction

jumbojet wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Let me summarize.

GA shortchanged DL to the extent of $40 Million
The guy who led the effort to stop $40 Million to DL may become GA Governor.
State of Georgia is also planning to take over ATL from City of Atlanta

What does that have to do with anything? I'm pretty sure the future gov of GA isn't interested in starting a war with Delta. The spat is over.

If Cagel becomes Governor and state takes over ATL, Delta can kiss all incentives good bye.

With Atlanta Metro having just 45 PDEW, no other major Indian population center within 400 mile radius, and no unserved feeder stations, incentives is the only way to make ATL-Mumbai viable.

Unless DL wants to offer two-stop $499 RT.

BTW, China Eastern offered LAX-Mumbai RT for $406 April-May 2018.


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Capn wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

From JFK it will be the A350. its a done deal.[/quote

Not doubting your knowledge,but where and how would they rotate the 359?]

There are a few possibilities to route the A350 and have it rotate through JFK.. I highly doubt it would fly a daily positioning flight DTW-JFK-DTW although it is not out of the question. Other options are listed below.

Currently DTW-AMS-DTW is 1x daily A359 they could route it DTW-AMS-JFK-BOM-JFK-AMS-DTW
Another A359 fly's out of LAX they could route it LAX-JFK-BOM-JFK-LAX (I am sure DL wouldn't mind sharing the A350 experience on the premium transcon showcasing the new D1 seat to high yielding domestic pax)

gsg013 wrote:

Capn wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

From JFK it will be the A350. its a done deal.[/quote

Not doubting your knowledge,but where and how would they rotate the 359?]

There are a few possibilities to route the A350 and have it rotate through JFK.. I highly doubt it would fly a daily positioning flight DTW-JFK-DTW although it is not out of the question. Other options are listed below.

Currently DTW-AMS-DTW is 1x daily A359 they could route it DTW-AMS-JFK-BOM-JFK-AMS-DTW
Another A359 fly's out of LAX they could route it LAX-JFK-BOM-JFK-LAX (I am sure DL wouldn't mind sharing the A350 experience on the premium transcon showcasing the new D1 seat to high yielding domestic pax)

Considering the multitude of widebody flights DL already offers on JFK-LAX (with Delta One as an option), the latter option wouldn't surprise me one bit. DTW-JFK is either RJs or 717s so I'm going to guess that one's a no.

FlightGlobal has a bit of an update. Per Bastian both ATL and JFK remain viable gateways for the service but not ready to announce which one.. Also route would be flowin in partnership with 9W.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ai-449781/

It has been stated multiple times that it will be a 777 as well as from ATL or JFK whether it’s a 77E or 77L is still unknown but is expected to start some time beginning 2019.

Irehdna wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

This forced DL to move to ATL-BOM for one year, before nonstop BOM was cancelled all together in 2009.

And history may well repeat itself with DL cancelling the non stop again after trying it for a year. IMHO, DL should just stick to 1 stops to India via AMS+CDG+LHR+FCO hubs with it's partners KL,AF,VS,AZ and concentrate on building more non stops out of another US airport (LAX?) besides ATL, DTW & JFK; at the very least how about adding LAX-MEL/LAX-PER/LAX-AKL/LAX-FRA (perhaps one or more of these by putting the 787s to use). LAX seems to be too important an O&D airport for any US airline to be ignoring and not trying more international non stops.

747megatop wrote:

Irehdna wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

This forced DL to move to ATL-BOM for one year, before nonstop BOM was cancelled all together in 2009.

And history may well repeat itself with DL cancelling the non stop again after trying it for a year. IMHO, DL should just stick to 1 stops to India via AMS+CDG+LHR+FCO hubs with it's partners KL,AF,VS,AZ and concentrate on building more non stops out of another US airport (LAX?) besides ATL, DTW & JFK; at the very least how about adding LAX-MEL/LAX-PER/LAX-AKL/LAX-FRA (perhaps one or more of these by putting the 787s to use). LAX seems to be too important an O&D airport for any US airline to be ignoring and not trying more international non stops.

The difference is that there is an enormous amount of feed from 9W now on the Indian side. DL also knows how many passengers are going to and from the US already on the partnership with 9W through LHR, CDG and AMS (moreso the last 2).

Also, DL doesn't have 787s to put to use...

Finally, why should DL add a lot of Australasia destinations? They've had a partnership with Virgin Australia for years that hasn't developed. Its also dominated by Oneworld and Star. Moreover, I suspect the TPAC stopovers in Asia are decreasing yields dramatically to MEL, PER and AKL. The arguments are similar for LAX-FRA, which is dominated by Star.

Okay, now finally, in what way is DL "ignoring" LAX? They tried to get PEK, but couldn't. DL is putting A350s on LAX flights.

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

stl07 wrote:

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

No one would, but a.netters won’t realize a US-India non-stop ends up being 2-stop for most passengers.

Viability depends on premium O&D and/or ASIPs. JFK has O&D but more than enough capacity. ATL doesn’t have enough O&D (45 PDEW) and will depend on incentives.

I sincerely hope this is just talk. With vast TATL network Delta should be working with 9W/Kl/VS( and AF) to ramp up India connectivity.


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stl07 wrote:

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

I agree with you - QR pretty much flies nonstop to all the India metros as well as several Tier 1 and some Tier 2 cities. I do not know how much value the flight stop to ATL will yield as DL flies to ~ 25-30 domestic destinations from JFK unless there are pax who only have a direct flight to/from ATL. I do not know how many they maybe but chances are they may not be a sizeable population. It will be interesting to see how DL strategizes the flight schedule and targeted pax.

iyerhari wrote:

stl07 wrote:

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

I agree with you - QR pretty much flies nonstop to all the India metros as well as several Tier 1 and some Tier 2 cities. I do not know how much value the flight stop to ATL will yield as DL flies to ~ 25-30 domestic destinations from JFK unless there are pax who only have a direct flight to/from ATL. I do not know how many they maybe but chances are they may not be a sizeable population. It will be interesting to see how DL strategizes the flight schedule and targeted pax.

What does QR flying to India have to do with JFK-India? So DL/9W should just give up? Look the notion that India would not be connected to the US nonstop was never based in reality. The ME3 exploited Indian politics to corner the market for a bit. Their capacity has stagnated in India due to no new bilaterals and growth is finally pushing for new capacity. UA/AI were the first to exploit this and now DL will. The US3 ignored India before and saw the ME3 rise on India’s back. The US3 won’t leave India now. They will go after the top tier clients who value FF programs and their home country airlines. EY is already in retreat. Qatar doesn’t have enough O&D to justify a seat increase. Only EK can expect some growth.

I think some here are getting confused a bit. If DL does ATL BOM, they won't need 9W's connections at BOM because in that case the aim will be to link BOM to maximum cities in the US through one stop. 9W FF base at BOM will help DL then.
If DL does JFK BOM then 9W connections will play role as that route will connect 36 cities in India one stop to JFK.
The aim is not to have a 2 stop connection, it's either have all US cities connect to BOM via one stop (ATL) or connect most secondary cities in India one stop to JFK via BOM.
Pax like say ORD -BLR can still continue to take the one stop through EU hubs. So unless your final destination is BOM, be it from whichever city in US you're from, the chances of you getting in this flight are low.

The flight will be on a 77L. That's a given. The 350 will take a payload hit out of BOM to JFK or ATL.

Oh, and DL is closing the DTW 777 pilot base, so you can go ahead and eliminate DTW. Lol

CaliguyNYC wrote:

iyerhari wrote:

stl07 wrote:

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

I agree with you - QR pretty much flies nonstop to all the India metros as well as several Tier 1 and some Tier 2 cities. I do not know how much value the flight stop to ATL will yield as DL flies to ~ 25-30 domestic destinations from JFK unless there are pax who only have a direct flight to/from ATL. I do not know how many they maybe but chances are they may not be a sizeable population. It will be interesting to see how DL strategizes the flight schedule and targeted pax.

What does QR flying to India have to do with JFK-India? So DL/9W should just give up? Look the notion that India would not be connected to the US nonstop was never based in reality. The ME3 exploited Indian politics to corner the market for a bit. Their capacity has stagnated in India due to no new bilaterals and growth is finally pushing for new capacity. UA/AI were the first to exploit this and now DL will. The US3 ignored India before and saw the ME3 rise on India’s back. The US3 won’t leave India now. They will go after the top tier clients who value FF programs and their home country airlines. EY is already in retreat. Qatar doesn’t have enough O&D to justify a seat increase. Only EK can expect some growth.

Sorry; that was not my point that I wanted to mention earlier. I agree with you with that QR flying to India has nothing to do with DL starting a flight to BOM. The question was always about a two or a 3 stop connection. E.g. a person traveling from BOS to BOM is a perfect connection for him/her as he is anyways used to taking a connection in Europe or ME most times. BOS-JFK-BOM is a good flight. But a person who wants to travel say from ATL to NAG or say BOS-NAG will end up taking ATL-JFK-BOM-NAG or BOS-JFK-BOM-NAG. The easier option for the person would end up becoming ATL-DOH-NAG OR BOS-DXB/DOH-NAG. Sorry if I am oversimplifying this but my point essentially was about 2 or a 3 stop connection is not easy.

binayak wrote:

If DL does ATL BOM, they won't need 9W's connections at BOM because in that case the aim will be to link BOM to maximum cities in the US through one stop. 9W FF base at BOM will help DL then.

Few hurdles
Atlanta MSA is an island of Indian population, no significant Indian population within 400 mile radius beyond MSA(see the map).
Most of the MSAs with significant Indian population have service(no/one/two stop) to India(map shows with 10K or more Indian population)
It is going to be a long and unnecessary connection with backtrack for most feeder cities.
ATL is a major hub to haul domestic traffic between southern seaboard and rest of US, but not a good hub for India service.

iyerhari wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

iyerhari wrote:

I agree with you - QR pretty much flies nonstop to all the India metros as well as several Tier 1 and some Tier 2 cities. I do not know how much value the flight stop to ATL will yield as DL flies to ~ 25-30 domestic destinations from JFK unless there are pax who only have a direct flight to/from ATL. I do not know how many they maybe but chances are they may not be a sizeable population. It will be interesting to see how DL strategizes the flight schedule and targeted pax.

What does QR flying to India have to do with JFK-India? So DL/9W should just give up? Look the notion that India would not be connected to the US nonstop was never based in reality. The ME3 exploited Indian politics to corner the market for a bit. Their capacity has stagnated in India due to no new bilaterals and growth is finally pushing for new capacity. UA/AI were the first to exploit this and now DL will. The US3 ignored India before and saw the ME3 rise on India’s back. The US3 won’t leave India now. They will go after the top tier clients who value FF programs and their home country airlines. EY is already in retreat. Qatar doesn’t have enough O&D to justify a seat increase. Only EK can expect some growth.

Sorry; that was not my point that I wanted to mention earlier. I agree with you with that QR flying to India has nothing to do with DL starting a flight to BOM. The question was always about a two or a 3 stop connection. E.g. a person traveling from BOS to BOM is a perfect connection for him/her as he is anyways used to taking a connection in Europe or ME most times. BOS-JFK-BOM is a good flight. But a person who wants to travel say from ATL to NAG or say BOS-NAG will end up taking ATL-JFK-BOM-NAG or BOS-JFK-BOM-NAG. The easier option for the person would end up becoming ATL-DOH-NAG OR BOS-DXB/DOH-NAG. Sorry if I am oversimplifying this but my point essentially was about 2 or a 3 stop connection is not easy.

Ok got it. Here's my only thought on the 2 stop. I feel that AI's nonstops have worked because they arrive early enough into DEL/BOM for onward flights / trains / cars to smaller Indian cities. Some people, not all, might tolerate a two stop in order to not land very late or to get air connections. Say a BUF-JFK-BOM-Indore. That pax today probably struggles for a seamless connection. If DL can offer flights on one ticket with 2-3 hour connections, people might bite. Also AI has long offered a free stop in BOM/DEL to connecting pax. This is another thing DL could allow. A lot of people heading to AMD actually want to stop in BOM to see family and to shop/party. The Indian market is now large enough and complicated enough that simple pov's like people just want to go from point A to point B with the cheapest fare doesn't capture the complexities of the market (not saying you said that). Finally on your QR example, a top tier DL flier would not take QR on ATL-DOH-NAG. VFR who do not fly often and do not care about miles will take QR (unless they just don't want to connect in the ME which some people don't). I think DL only cares about the business / top tier flyer. The VFR that flies once every 3 years to India is nice to have but doesn't make a business. EY had to offer $800 fares to India - how did that work?

CaliguyNYC wrote:

iyerhari wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

What does QR flying to India have to do with JFK-India? So DL/9W should just give up? Look the notion that India would not be connected to the US nonstop was never based in reality. The ME3 exploited Indian politics to corner the market for a bit. Their capacity has stagnated in India due to no new bilaterals and growth is finally pushing for new capacity. UA/AI were the first to exploit this and now DL will. The US3 ignored India before and saw the ME3 rise on India’s back. The US3 won’t leave India now. They will go after the top tier clients who value FF programs and their home country airlines. EY is already in retreat. Qatar doesn’t have enough O&D to justify a seat increase. Only EK can expect some growth.

Sorry; that was not my point that I wanted to mention earlier. I agree with you with that QR flying to India has nothing to do with DL starting a flight to BOM. The question was always about a two or a 3 stop connection. E.g. a person traveling from BOS to BOM is a perfect connection for him/her as he is anyways used to taking a connection in Europe or ME most times. BOS-JFK-BOM is a good flight. But a person who wants to travel say from ATL to NAG or say BOS-NAG will end up taking ATL-JFK-BOM-NAG or BOS-JFK-BOM-NAG. The easier option for the person would end up becoming ATL-DOH-NAG OR BOS-DXB/DOH-NAG. Sorry if I am oversimplifying this but my point essentially was about 2 or a 3 stop connection is not easy.

Ok got it. Here's my only thought on the 2 stop. I feel that AI's nonstops have worked because they arrive early enough into DEL/BOM for onward flights / trains / cars to smaller Indian cities. Some people, not all, might tolerate a two stop in order to not land very late or to get air connections. Say a BUF-JFK-BOM-Indore. That pax today probably struggles for a seamless connection. If DL can offer flights on one ticket with 2-3 hour connections, people might bite. Also AI has long offered a free stop in BOM/DEL to connecting pax. This is another thing DL could allow. A lot of people heading to AMD actually want to stop in BOM to see family and to shop/party. The Indian market is now large enough and complicated enough that simple pov's like people just want to go from point A to point B with the cheapest fare doesn't capture the complexities of the market (not saying you said that). Finally on your QR example, a top tier DL flier would not take QR on ATL-DOH-NAG. VFR who do not fly often and do not care about miles will take QR (unless they just don't want to connect in the ME which some people don't). I think DL only cares about the business / top tier flyer. The VFR that flies once every 3 years to India is nice to have but doesn't make a business. EY had to offer $800 fares to India - how did that work?

Basically, for non-stop/one-stop DL has to fill the plane (assuming it is JFK) with a combination of the following:

1.) O&D NYC-BOM
2.) people flying NYC -> BOM -> DEL/BLR/HYD/MAA/other place ME3 flies direct to
3.) people flying NYC -> BOM -> tertiary India city with no ME3 flights
4.) people flying US City w/ ME3/EU3 -> NYC -> BOM
5.) people flying US city w/o ME3/EU3 -> NYC -> BOM

Out of these, Delta should get good traction with #1, #3, #5, where there are advantages to this over ME3 flights. #2 and #4 have no inherent advantages, and ME3 is likely cheaper, but some people would rather transfer domestically.

Beyond this is the various 2-stop options that are numerous, but I would posit there is enough people in those 5 groups to make the flight work.

What I don't know is how many people in those 5 groups are already served by UA & AI EWR-BOM flights. They have to either pick up unserved people (possible in instance #4/5, especially Skyteam FFs), or take fliers that would be today taking ME3 or EU3 flights that now have a quicker option.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Ok got it. Here's my only thought on the 2 stop. I feel that AI's nonstops have worked because they arrive early enough into DEL/BOM for onward flights / trains / cars to smaller Indian cities. Some people, not all, might tolerate a two stop in order to not land very late or to get air connections. Say a BUF-JFK-BOM-Indore. That pax today probably struggles for a seamless connection. If DL can offer flights on one ticket with 2-3 hour connections, people might bite. Also AI has long offered a free stop in BOM/DEL to connecting pax. This is another thing DL could allow. A lot of people heading to AMD actually want to stop in BOM to see family and to shop/party. The Indian market is now large enough and complicated enough that simple pov's like people just want to go from point A to point B with the cheapest fare doesn't capture the complexities of the market (not saying you said that). Finally on your QR example, a top tier DL flier would not take QR on ATL-DOH-NAG. VFR who do not fly often and do not care about miles will take QR (unless they just don't want to connect in the ME which some people don't). I think DL only cares about the business / top tier flyer. The VFR that flies once every 3 years to India is nice to have but doesn't make a business. EY had to offer $800 fares to India - how did that work?

Excellent point and I agree with you. For the smaller city in India, I agree with you that they have to connect at DEL or BOM for the most part, so an addnl. leg does not matter as they have anyways been doing it for a longtime. They may not be the regular business traveler but I feel the ones who travel couple of years to visit family. These folks typically end up taking the cheaper option anyways unless and may not tilt the scale a whole lot for DL IMO.

IMO, EK provided that option especially for Indians - most Indians I know like to hang around in Dubai and I have heard the airport is itself like a happening town with lots to do. I am sorry I am saying by hearsay as I have never been there -plus my understanding is you get visa on arrival even if you are not a US citizen as long as you have a stamped and valid visa from US. Dubai also seems to be a real exciting place for many Indians to visit and many do not mind hanging in there than to sit in Mumbai or Delhi if they do not have relatives. I do not know anything about DOH or AUA so I cannot comment on that. sorry.

The business traveler who is a DL or Skyteam traveler will not take QR unless there is a highly compelling reason . JFK has the population and also DL dedicated travelers to bring the traffic - plus with good connections from BOS, and other places, they can make it work.

stl07 wrote:

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

Spot on. I was just going to reply to jbs2886 with this same question. If an ULR route has to survive just on connections at both ends that is trouble since you are asking for most passengers to make 2 stops. Why would anyone pay a premium for that when there are cheaper and more efficient (time wise) 1 stops?

747megatop wrote:

stl07 wrote:

everyone keeps saying "connections on the partner in BOM will fill this route up"

Why in the world would I stop in both ATL/JFK and BOM when I could stop in Qatar for sub $600 ROUND TRIP?

Spot on. I was just going to reply to jbs2886 with this same question. If an ULR route has to survive just on connections at both ends that is trouble since you are asking for most passengers to make 2 stops. Why would anyone pay a premium for that when there are cheaper and more efficient (time wise) 1 stops?

There are places in India the ME3 does not fly to.

As Indian domestic commercial aviation continues to grow, and the population of people flying increases, this segment will increase as well.

ME3 flies to quite a few population hubs, but not everywhere.

747megatop wrote:

Spot on. I was just going to reply to jbs2886 with this same question. If an ULR route has to survive just on connections at both ends that is trouble since you are asking for most passengers to make 2 stops. Why would anyone pay a premium for that when there are cheaper and more efficient (time wise) 1 stops?

There is a chance of ATL BOM to work with more connections. But for that DL has to time the flight correctly . They can be assured that indians (the ones DL is aiming as customers) will be ready to pay a premium for a one stop to US city if they don't have to depart at 2am-5am. Even EK a380 from BOM leaves at late night hours only. So some different timing can do wonders. DL has multiple flights from ATL to other US cities so timing this BOM flight for connection at ATL end won't be difficult.
Now the issue is whether DL can get such a slot at BOM.

iyerhari wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

IMO, EK provided that option especially for Indians - most Indians I know like to hang around in Dubai and I have heard the airport is itself like a happening town with lots to do. I am sorry I am saying by hearsay as I have never been there -plus my understanding is you get visa on arrival even if you are not a US citizen as long as you have a stamped and valid visa from US. Dubai also seems to be a real exciting place for many Indians to visit and many do not mind hanging in there than to sit in Mumbai or Delhi if they do not have relatives. I do not know anything about DOH or AUA so I cannot comment on that. sorry.
.

It is as you said hearsay and great marketing by Dubai. Look DXB is just an airport. Nothing special at all. The percentage of Indian that chose to fly through DXB because it is "exciting" is tiny and shrinking everyday as more pax travel more. I travel a lot and you know what I like - small airports that are easy to navigate and don't have delays. All over the world there are a % of the pax that like connecting in their home country (one is typically treated better, know the language/culture and not worried about having to figure out the city if you have to spend the night). Are these all pax, nope (in fact there is a group on net who would rather die than transit in BOM or DEL). That said, AI pulls in a lot of people to connect in DEL and gets decent fares. So let's see what DL/9W can do not their connection experience (in general I find both airlines to be pretty good in this respect and BOM is a great terminal). Btw leaving BOM at 4am to arrive at DXB 3 hours later to then wait 2 hours to then connect to the US is a nightmare - you are a zombie. At least grant us that some pax would like to avoid this crazy connection (what % of people from the US or EU would beg for connections at those times). EY's state has proven that the new flights from India are having a direct affect on the ME3. If you cut SFO because of AI as your competition, I think that speaks volumes on how "excited" Indians are to connect in the ME.

binayak wrote:

747megatop wrote:

Spot on. I was just going to reply to jbs2886 with this same question. If an ULR route has to survive just on connections at both ends that is trouble since you are asking for most passengers to make 2 stops. Why would anyone pay a premium for that when there are cheaper and more efficient (time wise) 1 stops?

There is a chance of ATL BOM to work with more connections. But for that DL has to time the flight correctly . They can be assured that indians (the ones DL is aiming as customers) will be ready to pay a premium for a one stop to US city if they don't have to depart at 2am-5am. Even EK a380 from BOM leaves at late night hours only. So some different timing can do wonders. DL has multiple flights from ATL to other US cities so timing this BOM flight for connection at ATL end won't be difficult.
Now the issue is whether DL can get such a slot at BOM.

Well, you (& others) are still not answering the question posed by some (stl07 & me for example); why would passengers pay a premium to do xxx-ATL-BOM-yyy when they can do xxx-European/ME3 Hub-yyy ????

Here are the various passenger routing scenarios -
1) xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL [Might work; but i am skeptical for the following reasons]
a) No big advantage to the xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL customer now, who has a variety of 1 stop options to choose now.
b) For the xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL customer; the immigration+customs hassle on the return leg is a hassle which anyone would like to
avoid (when there is a connection to make) unless there is no option such as when connecting to a totally domestic airport like LIT.
2) ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL-yyy [Might work; but again i am skeptical for the following reasons]
a) On the outbound and inbound legs the immigration & customs hassles at BOM/DEL is something which passengers would want to completely avoid unless they
don't have a choice. Tickets will have to be much cheaper than the competition for passengers to take this routing.
b) Plenty of one stop choices to choose from; so what is the advantage DL is offering with it's non stop?
4) xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL-yyy. Now who in their right mind would take this routing? Unless of course, someone flying from LIT,COS,MEM where there is no international service. Would DL singnificantly count on such passengers and make make money on folks travelling on such a 2 stop routing? The answer is NO.

Now, so, this really leaves passengers with 2 possble routings that can really make DL sustain US India non stop & make money (and that is a big IF)
5 ) ATL-DEL/BOM. ATL is not the same economic powerhouse that JFK is (serving NYC); So, if i were to bet this would be my 2nd choice in the bet.

6) That leaves JFK-BOM/DEL. JFK is an economic powerhouse; financial capital of the US and the world. Makes most sense for DL to launch a non stop from here with a product that is superior to the competition (if it is worried about not being able to make money due to competition from AI & UA).
On the other end it is a close tie between BOM (Financial capital of India) & DEL (The political capital & [Economic powerhouse? in it's own right to India])
A JFK-BOM [1st choice] followed by [a close second choice] JFK-DEL catering to O&D traffic primarily + with connecting traffic as bonus has the most chance of success (IF it succceeds); otherwise we may see DL trying it for a year or two and pulling out till a far more efficient plane comes along.


Time will tell.

747megatop wrote:

Well, you (& others) are still not answering the question posed by some (stl07 & me for example); why would passengers pay a premium to do xxx-ATL-BOM-yyy when they can do xxx-European/ME3 Hub-yyy ????

Here are the various passenger routing scenarios -
1) xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL [Might work; but i am skeptical for the following reasons]
a) No big advantage to the xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL customer now, who has a variety of 1 stop options to choose now.
b) For the xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL customer; the immigration+customs hassle on the return leg is a hassle which anyone would like to
avoid (when there is a connection to make) unless there is no option such as when connecting to a totally domestic airport like LIT.
2) ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL-yyy [Might work; but again i am skeptical for the following reasons]
a) On the outbound and inbound legs the immigration & customs hassles at BOM/DEL is something which passengers would want to completely avoid unless they
don't have a choice. Tickets will have to be much cheaper than the competition for passengers to take this routing.
b) Plenty of one stop choices to choose from; so what is the advantage DL is offering with it's non stop?
4) xxx-ATL/JFK-BOM/DEL-yyy. Now who in their right mind would take this routing? Unless of course, someone flying from LIT,COS,MEM where there is no international service. Would DL singnificantly count on such passengers and make make money on folks travelling on such a 2 stop routing? The answer is NO.

Now, so, this really leaves passengers with 2 possble routings that can really make DL sustain US India non stop & make money (and that is a big IF)
5 ) ATL-DEL/BOM. ATL is not the same economic powerhouse that JFK is (serving NYC); So, if i were to bet this would be my 2nd choice in the bet.

6) That leaves JFK-BOM/DEL. JFK is an economic powerhouse; financial capital of the US and the world. Makes most sense for DL to launch a non stop from here with a product that is superior to the competition (if it is worried about not being able to make money due to competition from AI & UA).
On the other end it is a close tie between BOM (Financial capital of India) & DEL (The political capital & [Economic powerhouse? in it's own right to India])
A JFK-BOM [1st choice] followed by [a close second choice] JFK-DEL catering to O&D traffic primarily + with connecting traffic as bonus has the most chance of success (IF it succceeds); otherwise we may see DL trying it for a year or two and pulling out till a far more efficient plane comes along.


Time will tell.

The answer is in my post itself. All EU carriers arrive at BOM during midnight and depart at around 2-3am. Only exception is BA 198 the afternoon flight to LHR. But everyone doesn't want to take a 2am flight to EU and then onward to US. If DL can try out a different timing, then people will surely pay a premium for BOM -ATL/JFK -XXX . As I have observed, in 9W's afternoon flight in BOM LHR route, the seats under higher fare buckets and lower fare buckets are occupied simultaneously which means there are good amount of potential FFs who don't want to chose a late night flight.
Talking about BOM immigration, the airport's capacityis highly underutilized. If DL and 9W have a proper hub operation at BOM then the airport operator will in no time open the remaining immigration counters which are currently non functional. This will reduce congestion. BOM has the highest number of immigration counters in India so if utilized properly, immigration can no longer be a hassle there.

I have not looked through 9 pages of this thread, but this is an amazing amount of speculation for what literally amounts to an empty promise to serve Mumbai from some unknown point at some unknown time. It is completely open ended, mainly because they have not actually developed any sort of real plan themselves, other than to throw an empty intention out there for A.net to latch onto. This is as equally ridiculous as jumping to conclusions on Austin's being the next Delta focus city. This is very far from being any sort of done deal. Delta has literally been saying this every year for the past couple of years. In case anyone doesn't believe me:

https://www.travelcodex.com/the-challen ... -figures2/

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1421289 ... tions.html

https://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com ... -to-india/

Delta claiming they will return to India is an empty promise they have made for years and the complete lack of substance in this announcement reinforces that they simply don't have a plan. If they did, they would've said it. If they actually had a plan, they would've announced it. Nobody makes empty announcements like this unless they don't have anything better to say. This is the same airline that just withdrew from Hong Kong, HONG KONG. Now where's supposed to believe that they're going to knock it out of the park with Mumbai? India is a notorious bloodbath and difficult route to work and somehow it's been magically fixed with the snakeoil that is the ME agreements with the UAE and Qatar that serve no purpose other than to save face? I'm sorry, but I'm not biting until they give me some actual meat to bite onto and I don't see it yet.

IPFreely wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

I actually think it could be nothing. Nothing changed at all that would somehow make either route profitable. I think its possible DL will make a show of not doing anything and blame something else.

Bingo - we have a winner.

DL made a big show of announcing a return to India to pretend their lobbying and PR campaign against the ME3 was a "win", even though it did nothing that affects their flying to India. Of course the announcement of India service lacked some "minor details" like the route, aircraft, start date, and schedule.

DL followed this up by announcing lower earnings are coming due to fuel price increases -- the only airline to do so.

In a few weeks or months when the hubub over India dies down, look for DL to announce their return to India is scrapped because of fuel prices.

Most likely outcome right here.

neomax wrote:

I have not looked through 9 pages of this thread, but this is an amazing amount of speculation for what literally amounts to an empty promise to serve Mumbai from some unknown point at some unknown time. It is completely open ended, mainly because they have not actually developed any sort of real plan themselves, other than to throw an empty intention out there for A.net to latch onto. This is as equally ridiculous as jumping to conclusions on Austin's being the next Delta focus city. This is very far from being any sort of done deal. Delta has literally been saying this every year for the past couple of years. In case anyone doesn't believe me:

https://www.travelcodex.com/the-challen ... -figures2/

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1421289 ... tions.html

https://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com ... -to-india/

Delta claiming they will return to India is an empty promise they have made for years and the complete lack of substance in this announcement reinforces that they simply don't have a plan. If they did, they would've said it. If they actually had a plan, they would've announced it. Nobody makes empty announcements like this unless they don't have anything better to say. This is the same airline that just withdrew from Hong Kong, HONG KONG. Now where's supposed to believe that they're going to knock it out of the park with Mumbai? India is a notorious bloodbath and difficult route to work and somehow it's been magically fixed with the snakeoil that is the ME agreements with the UAE and Qatar that serve no purpose other than to save face? I'm sorry, but I'm not biting until they give me some actual meat to bite onto and I don't see it yet.

They are most likely waiting to get firm delivery dates of the 2 A350 coming online next year before they can commit dates for the routes. Once those come online, it'll free up 2 77Ls for the BOM flight.

If the goal was to create buzz DL definitely achieved that, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions about route viability.

NYC
If Chinese/Virgin Atlantic are the ones offering rock bottom prices, how is DL is going to command premium fares? These are DLs JV partners and there is TK/WW.
There seem to be conflicting interests between SkyMiles members and Delta revenue management. How can this route generate revenue if all DMs want is to burn their miles. Even EK realized filling premium cabins with just reward travel is not a good revenue management model.


ATL
Unless NRA discounts are back, Cagel will stand in between Delta and incentives.
QR probably will be ready to offer $1499 J fares.
Pilot program showed DMs cannot stand the sight of Palak Paneer

dtw2hyd wrote:

If the goal was to create buzz DL definitely achieved that, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions about route viability.

NYC
If Chinese/Virgin Atlantic are the ones offering rock bottom prices,

Virgin Atlantic rock bottom fares? Please tell me the month.

neomax wrote:

Delta claiming they will return to India is an empty promise they have made for years and the complete lack of substance in this announcement reinforces that they simply don't have a plan. If they did, they would've said it. If they actually had a plan, they would've announced it. Nobody makes empty announcements like this unless they don't have anything better to say. This is the same airline that just withdrew from Hong Kong, HONG KONG. Now where's supposed to believe that they're going to knock it out of the park with Mumbai? India is a notorious bloodbath and difficult route to work and somehow it's been magically fixed with the snakeoil that is the ME agreements with the UAE and Qatar that serve no purpose other than to save face? I'm sorry, but I'm not biting until they give me some actual meat to bite onto and I don't see it yet.

True that!

The statement would have had more value were it made by Jet since an additional flight to N America would offer more potential for incremental revenue growth. They seem to be unusually very quiet here.

Look I agree that DL might never launch the BOM flight. That said, DL has the resources to launch the flight even if it loses money. I am willing to bet that premium J traffic, as well as higher fare Y traffic, out of BOM is a key component of the ME3's NA flights (especially JFK). If DL lets India be, the ME uses the cream of the traffic to help fund their growth. If DL, UA and even AI all provide good options, it just chips away at the higher paying pax. Sure QR can offer low fares to combat. As I pointed out before, EY tried the $800 JFK-BOM fare and ended up dropping a flight. Even if EK keeps all its nonstops between JFK-DXB, I think DL would even count EK dropping MXP or EWR from NYC as a win. Looking at the breadth of connections DL has made available to India flights through 9W (meaning LHR, AMS, CDG and with KL, AF, VS), I think DL is very serious about India. Even FF redemptions have gotten way way better to India. Finally UA upgrading their EWR-BOM flight also points to DL really thinking about it IMHO.

Look, DL does have a solid FF base in NY. And so does Jet in Bombay. That should be sufficient reason for both to consider a non-stop.

Having said that, connecting traffic at a hub certainly helps with incremental revenue. In that regard, bot JFK and BOM are very limited. Especially JFK where half of the potential traffic might prefer EWR and UA.

vadodara wrote:

Look, DL does have a solid FF base in NY. And so does Jet in Bombay. That should be sufficient reason for both to consider a non-stop.

Having said that, connecting traffic at a hub certainly helps with incremental revenue. In that regard, bot JFK and BOM are very limited. Especially JFK where half of the potential traffic might prefer EWR and UA.

Well a good number of people (BOM based) taking UA 48/49 are 9W silver /gold members but don't hold such a position in *A FFP. If they can earn JP miles in a BOM NYC non stop through DL, they'll drop UA in a heartbeat. UA knows this too and perhaps one of the reasons to up gauge BOM .

dtw2hyd wrote:

ATL

Pilot program showed DMs cannot stand the sight of Palak Paneer

Where did you get that from? Do you have a source?

binayak wrote:

The answer is in my post itself. All EU carriers arrive at BOM during midnight and depart at around 2-3am. Only exception is BA 198 the afternoon flight to LHR. But everyone doesn't want to take a 2am flight to EU and then onward to US. If DL can try out a different timing, then people will surely pay a premium for BOM -ATL/JFK -XXX .

I saw the answer and honestly..that is a lame and dumb reason. When talking about a 15+ hour ultra long haul that covers multiple timezones departure/arrival at inconvenient times is least of the issues. Nobody would take a 2 hop routing when 1 stop routings are available at competitive or better prices. In a nutshell DL has to primarily rely on O&D premium traffic combined with some 1 stop connecting traffic.

747megatop wrote:

binayak wrote:

The answer is in my post itself. All EU carriers arrive at BOM during midnight and depart at around 2-3am. Only exception is BA 198 the afternoon flight to LHR. But everyone doesn't want to take a 2am flight to EU and then onward to US. If DL can try out a different timing, then people will surely pay a premium for BOM -ATL/JFK -XXX .

I saw the answer and honestly..that is a lame and dumb reason. When talking about a 15+ hour ultra long haul that covers multiple timezones departure/arrival at inconvenient times is least of the issues. Nobody would take a 2 hop routing when 1 stop routings are available at competitive or better prices. In a nutshell DL has to primarily rely on O&D premium traffic combined with some 1 stop connecting traffic.

Read my older posts in this thread. I've never supported 2stop India US routing. I was talking primarily about people going from BOM to any US city via JFK /ATL and I justified a reason why they might choose DL over ME3 even if latter is cheaper.
And yes, this is a long haul from my country where flying overseas means taking a flight at any ungodly hour . So yes, timing matters cause that will diffentiate this flight from the rest of one stop options. Same reason why still people are ready to fly AI one stop to US and pay a premium although their product is sub par.
A 9pm departure from BOM for outbound flight and a 7 pm arrival at BOM for return flight might do wonders.

binayak wrote:

Read my older posts in this thread. I've never supported 2stop India US routing. I was talking primarily about people going from BOM to any US city via JFK /ATL and I justified a reason why they might choose DL over ME3 even if latter is cheaper.

The only way DL can improve connectivity is to ramp up India=Europe network. US3 lost their market share because they delegated this job to EU legacies and they failed miserably. Now that DL has 9W, it should concentrate its resources on 9W. Rather than taking a loss on a US-India non-stop, provide cheap finance to Jet, so it can take 789 deliveries or quickly refurbish 777/A330 fleet.

If you do a napkin math of one-stop options

ME3 India 12 x US 12 = 144
OneWorld India 5 x US 21?? = 105
SkyTeam++ India 4 x US 22 = 88 (one India-Europe service adds 22 more one-stops). Hence my theory of even load restricted/non-daily 737MAX from CCU/AMD/HYD/COK-AMS.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Hence my theory of even load restricted/non-daily 737MAX from CCU/AMD/HYD/COK-AMS.

Agreed with the post. Well what if both (DL non stop and your idea) are done. In fact 9W will have few exclusive 737MAX for medium hauls in which, economy will have more legroom than current ones and J will have few more facilities. So I feel your idea might be implemented . At least ATQ AMS can be done that way.

binayak wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Well what if both (DL non stop and your idea) are done.

Which is what *A does. In a nutshell; that is what i stated. DL has the best chance of concentrating on O&D traffic between JFL - BOM/DEL with some connecting traffic as an added bonus. The remaining traffic is best left to 1 or 2 stop Skyteam options over AMS/CDG/FCO (&LHR?)+JFK/ATL[1 or 2 stop flyers connecting through the potential non stop] .

BUT THE BIGGEST THING IS - i have not seen ANY concrete announcement from DL about a US - India non stop. So, till that happens...let's speculate away...which is what we do on a.net on many topics.

747megatop wrote:

BUT THE BIGGEST THING IS - i have not seen ANY concrete announcement from DL about a US - India non stop. So, till that happens...let's speculate away...which is what we do on a.net on many topics.

It is on their website. Details, no, but this isn't a speculation exercise.

https://news.delta.com/delta-serve-mumb ... op-us-2019

747megatop wrote:

binayak wrote:

The answer is in my post itself. All EU carriers arrive at BOM during midnight and depart at around 2-3am. Only exception is BA 198 the afternoon flight to LHR. But everyone doesn't want to take a 2am flight to EU and then onward to US. If DL can try out a different timing, then people will surely pay a premium for BOM -ATL/JFK -XXX .

I saw the answer and honestly..that is a lame and dumb reason. When talking about a 15+ hour ultra long haul that covers multiple timezones departure/arrival at inconvenient times is least of the issues. Nobody would take a 2 hop routing when 1 stop routings are available at competitive or better prices. In a nutshell DL has to primarily rely on O&D premium traffic combined with some 1 stop connecting traffic.

Seriously “lame and dumb”??? Timings matter. India and Indians are no different than any where else in the world. No one, I mean no one, wants a 4am departure. My mom will not land at BOM at midnight anymore - period She has earned that right through her hard work and enjoys her J ticket to BOM on UA or AI that arrive at decent times. Also no one is building a business case of the two connections crowd although there are many many cites between the US and India that require two stops. DL is seriously considering the nonstop because premium pax are moving on and want options. Only a fool would continue to bet on horrible flight times and connections in the desert dream cities that offer “shopping”

CaliguyNYC wrote:

747megatop wrote:

binayak wrote:

The answer is in my post itself. All EU carriers arrive at BOM during midnight and depart at around 2-3am. Only exception is BA 198 the afternoon flight to LHR. But everyone doesn't want to take a 2am flight to EU and then onward to US. If DL can try out a different timing, then people will surely pay a premium for BOM -ATL/JFK -XXX .

I saw the answer and honestly..that is a lame and dumb reason. When talking about a 15+ hour ultra long haul that covers multiple timezones departure/arrival at inconvenient times is least of the issues. Nobody would take a 2 hop routing when 1 stop routings are available at competitive or better prices. In a nutshell DL has to primarily rely on O&D premium traffic combined with some 1 stop connecting traffic.

Seriously “lame and dumb”??? Timings matter. India and Indians are no different than any where else in the world. No one, I mean no one, wants a 4am departure. My mom will not land at BOM at midnight anymore - period She has earned that right through her hard work and enjoys her J ticket to BOM on UA or AI that arrive at decent times. Also no one is building a business case of the two connections crowd although there are many many cites between the US and India that require two stops. DL is seriously considering the nonstop because premium pax are moving on and want options. Only a fool would continue to bet on horrible flight times and connections in the desert dream cities that offer “shopping”

Absolutely. The concept that all Indians are cheap and will put up with anything to pay a few bucks less needs to stop. Granted a majority of the passenger care most about the fares, but for a huge country with 20-25% YoY growth, even a mere 5% of the pax is a lot.

And I am tired of the BS excuse of time zone problems. You can easily schedule afternoon/evening flights from east coast that reach India in the early evening the day after. The same flights then leave in the late evening e.g. 9-10PM and reach east coast in the morning. For west coast, start the flights in the morning and they land India in the afternoon (+1) and reach back home at late evening. This also works very well with the connections timings.

Back on topic, Delta don't really need 2 stop connecting people. The JFK/EWR-BOM non-stop route is served by United & AI and both have sub-par product. Delta should be able to take some J pax from them, in addition to the Jet FF. Add Delta FF from US side and connecting pax from either side, they shouldn't have problem with a decent load.